Fun With Baseball: Franchise Postseason Stats Since 2000

Here's a breakdown of every MLB franchise's record and games played in the post season since 2000 (entering the World Series):

Teams Games Team Wins Team Win % 1 NYY 116 1 NYY 62 1 Mia 0.647059 2 StL 106 2 StL 58 2 CWS 0.631579 3 Bos 67 3 Bos 41 3 Bos 0.61194 4 SF 56 4 SF 34 4 SF 0.607143 5 Det 48 5 Phil 27 5 Phil 0.586957 6 Phil 46 6 Det 25 6 NYM 0.583333 7 LAA 45 7 LAA 21 7 StL 0.54717 8 Atl 39 8 Tex 18 8 NYY 0.534483 9 Oak 37 9 Ariz 16 9 Col 0.533333 10 Tex 34 10 Oak 15 10 Tex 0.529412 11 LAD 33 11 LAD 14 11 Det 0.520833 12 Ariz 32 12 NYM 14 12 Ariz 0.5 13 TB 30 13 Atl 13 13 Pitt 0.5 14 Hou 29 14 TB 13 14 Balt 0.5 15 Min 27 15 Hou 13 15 Sea 0.473684 16 NYM 24 16 CWS 12 16 Cle 0.470588 17 CWS 19 17 Mia 11 17 LAA 0.466667 18 Sea 19 18 Sea 9 18 Hou 0.448276 19 CHC 18 19 Cle 8 19 TB 0.433333 20 Cle 17 20 Col 8 20 LAD 0.424242 21 Mia 17 21 Min 6 21 Oak 0.405405 22 Mil 15 22 CHC 6 22 Mil 0.4 23 Col 15 23 Mil 6 23 Wash 0.4 24 Cin 9 24 Pitt 3 24 Atl 0.333333 25 SD 7 25 Balt 3 25 CHC 0.333333 26 Pitt 6 26 Cin 2 26 Min 0.222222 27 Balt 6 27 Wash 2 27 Cin 0.222222 28 Wash 5 28 SD 1 28 SD 0.142857 29 KC 0 29 KC 0 29 KC N/A 30 Tor 0 30 Tor 0 30 Tor N/A

(Miami stats include time as Florida Marlins)

(Washington stats include time as Montreal Expos)

Fun Notes:

• Florida Marlins are the only team to win a World Series in this time period and have that be the franchise's only postseason wins/appearance. They had 100% of their postseason wins and games in this time period come in 2003, when they won the World Series. 
• If you include the one game playoff in 2012 as a series, Atlanta has lost 9 of its 10 postseason series.
• Detroit has the most playoff wins w/o a World Series title in this time period (25).
• Three teams have more WINS in postseason play than the Cubs and White Sox do TOTAL GAMES...COMBINED in this time frame.
• In its seven ALDS appearances from 2000-2013, Oakland lost in a deciding 5th game in six of them.

NFL Playoff Paralysis by Analysis: New Playoff Teams & Fun Playoff Facts

Your team not make the NFL playoffs last year? If history is any indication (unless you're a Raiders fan), chances are that they're not that far away from making the January Madness.

Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).

Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).

So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?

No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans

With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.

So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?

My best guesses:

1. Baltimore (will miss leadership on defense as well as some of their key offensive weapons - Pitta/Boldin helped make Flacco a rich man and will both be missed)
2. Indy (they were the first 11-5 team ever to make the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored - regression to 6 or 7 wins is my projection).
3. Washington (with how competitive the NFC East is and the RG3 health questions entering 2013, I don't see them successfully defending their division crown)
4. Minnesota (Christian Ponder is going to miss Percy Harvin (and Greg Jennings is going to miss Aaron Rodgers), and I don't see how AP can carry this team to a playoff run like he did last year. Plus, like the NFC East, the NFC Central is strong top-to-bottom)
5. Atlanta (this is more of a hunch than based in concrete data. Atlanta destroyed the division last year, but I think New Orleans w/ Sean Payton, Carolina w/ their stud Cam, and Tampa's big moves, like acquiring Revis Island, will likely lead to a few more losses for the Falcons this year)
6. Green Bay (this certainly isn't a reflection of their QB, but more their offensive line, which could get Rodgers killed this year, and their defense, which got shredded in their playoff loss to the 49ers)

New England could get added to this list if Brady isn't able to establish good connections with his new receivers. I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some drop off with Seattle, who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick.

Fun Division Facts

There's a few nuggets that I'd like to share in my research and breakdown of the division winners in the 32-team NFL era (2002-current):

• New England and Indianapolis are the only teams to win five straight division titles in this era, each accomplishing their respective feats from 2003-2007. Seattle (2004-2007) and SD (2006-2009) are the only other teams to have a run of four straight division titles.
• The NFC South, which is among four divisions during this time to see all four of its teams win at least one division crown, has yet to have a reigning division title team repeat the next year. This does not bode well for Atlanta.
• In addition to the above fact, the NFC South is the most represented division to make the big game, with a total of three different teams making a Super Bowl (2002 TB, 2003 Carolina, 2009 New Orleans). NFC West also has this distinction (Seattle in 2005, Arizona in 2008, San Fran in 2012).
• Of the 10 teams who have won a Super Bowl between 2003 and 2012, only three of these teams did not make the playoffs the previous year (NE in 2003, NO in 2009, and NYG in 2011)
• Of the 10 Super Bowl losers during this same time, only Carolina (2003), Arizona (2008) and Pittsburgh (2010) failed to make the playoffs the year before.
• Of the 10 Super Bowl winners between 2002 and 2011, three missed the playoffs the following year (Tampa in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2006, NYG in 2012). I am projecting that Baltimore becomes the fourth.
• Of the 10 Super Bowl losers between 2002 and 2011, half of them missed the playoffs the following year (Oakland in 2003, Carolina in 2004, Philly in 2005, Chicago in 2007, New England in 2008).
• 23 of the 32 franchises have made the playoffs at least once in the past four postseasons. The casualties? Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.
• Of these 23, 17 teams (or over half the league) has won at least one playoff game. Baltimore is the only team that has won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years.

2013 NFL Divisional Predictions

Vegas was mostly a disaster gambling-wise last weekend. My NFL predictions went 2-2, but the other sports did me in. So much so, combined with my bad run the past 4-5 weeks, I decided to take a little break from handicapping these games. That doesn't mean I can't offer my contractually obligated Divisional predictions for this week.

Dating back to the Giants' first Super Bowl run in 2008, there has been at least one team favored by 7+ points who has lost every year in this round:

• 2008 - NYG upset Dallas as 7-point underdogs (21-17). I refer to this game as the "Scream Game", as this was the first big bet I ever won while in Vegas. It also happened to occur while I took a nap throughout the entire game. I was literally tired of losing every single bet I had made up until that point.  I woke up as the post-game was about to start and saw the final score and flipped out.
  
  San Diego also beat Indianapolis as 10.5 point underdogs on the same day (28-24). Boy, do I envy those crazy fools who parlayed SD & NYG money lines that day.
  
• 2009 - No one gave Arizona (+10) much of a chance against the Carolina Panthers in this particular year, but they should have. Hell, Arizona covered the reverse spread, winning easily 33-13 en route to to their franchise's first-ever Super Bowl run.
  
• 2010 - With how underachieving Norv Turner's teams have been, their loss to the Jets as 7.5 point favorites might not surprise people much. But there was enough of a talent difference (as was the case in the Norv era) for them to be favored by this much. The Jets won the defensive battle 17-14. With how bad the Jets are, this game feels like it happened a lot longer than 3 years ago.
  
• 2011 - After being destroyed in their last regular season tilt against the Patriots, the Jets were not given much of a chance to win the playoff matchup between the two in Foxboro, closing as a +9.5 underdog. As the story goes, the Jets won this straight up, 28-21
  
• 2012 - The Giants do it again, this time against Green Bay. The Giants (+8) dismantled the Packers 37-20, the second playoff step in their second championship run in the Eli era.

Random note: the last three of these upsets occurred in the last game of the weekend. So if the Ravens don't pull off the upset, don't be surprised if the Texans do it on Sunday afternoon.

Naturally, I bring these recent trends up because I anticipate one of the big dogs to win this weekend. Another Brady versus Manning AFC Championship game seems too good to be true.

Without further ado:

Baltimore 24, Denver 20 - This is more of a gut-feeling play than anything. I see Baltimore being the team that continues this trend. Normally, teams in this spot (blown out by the opponent in the regular season match-up) fair much better in the playoff rematch. Joe Flacco gets critiqued a lot, but he's won a playoff game in his first five years in the league, including a 4-4 road record. He has more career playoff road wins than many of the legends, including Peyton (2-4 road record) & Brady (3-2). 

There's too many Peyton playoff games that come to mind where he loses in this spot. In his previous 11 trips to the playoffs with the Colts, Manning went one-and-done seven times, including losses as a home team in four of them (three of which were off of a bye). The two Super Bowl runs are responsible for six of his nine career playoff wins (9-10 overall record).

San Francisco 21, Green Bay 17 - I'm torn both ways on this game. I worry about the Justin Smith injury and how effective he will be with a partially torn triceps. He sets everything up for Aldon Smith, who was  able to set the franchise record for sacks largely due to the attention that Justin draws on the line. I'm being the optimistic Niners fan boy here and saying Justin will be effective enough to help Aldon out and also help the rush defense.

I expect a game of ground-and-pound with Gore, who should get 25+ carries. Kaepernick will be facing an under-rated defense, which is getting players healthy at the right time of the year. I worry a little about our receiving depth - gonna need Randy Moss to step up.

In the end, I believe San Francisco's defense will hold up just enough to take this game.

Atlanta 28, Seattle 18 - It would shock no one if the Seahawks continued their roll and advanced to the NFC title game, especially given Atlanta's recent history of playoff ineptitude. I feel folks are sleeping on the Falcons and we haven't seen the best of them. I expect Matt Ryan to finally put together a solid playoff game  and send the Seahawks packing.

New England 27, Houston 20 - I don't see Houston getting spanked by New England again. These revenge match-ups benefit the team who got blown out in the previous match-up. Houston will want to neutralize Brady by feeding the ball to Arian Foster constantly (like I mentioned in the San Fran write-up for Gore). However, I don't think they can completely neutralize their passing attack, which will be enough for the Patriots to take this game.


Feel free to offer your own predictions. I look forward to being way wrong about these games.

Go Niners!

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.

Spoiler Alert - Why Bad Teams Should Take Pride in their Squads

We're at that point in the year where there's three types of fantasy football owners:

Those preparing for the playoffs: These are the teams that are about 6-2 or 7-1. Barring a catastrophic collapse, these teams should make the playoffs. There's a large margin of error, where these owners can afford to drop a game or two (better now than in the playoffs, right?) Owners of these teams are now worried about making sure they win their division and get a good seed for the playoffs. A top 2/3 seed is very likely.

Those fighting for a playoff spot: These are the teams around the 3, most likely the 4 or 5 win mark. None of these teams can afford a multiple game losing streak for fear of falling to the bottom bracket. These are the owners that are most meticulous and insane about making sure they set the right lineup each week. One wrong move could boot you from a chance at the Geno Bowl. One right move, and your path to nerd glory is a step closer from being achieved.

Those who likely don't give a shit anymore: These are the teams at about 2 wins or below. Checking the lineup isn't as fun anymore, especially when half of your starting team from Week 1 is either hurt or underperforming.

Being a spoiler (especially in fantasy football games) should be fun for bad teams.

I came here to discuss the last group, those who feel like they are out of it.

I say - take some pride when you set your lineups each week. Don't you wanna piss off one of these folks one of these groups above you, just to hear them whine as your Nick Foles pick-up netted you 30 points in a come-from-behind win that devastated someone's playoff hopes like your own? I mean, c'mon, how fun is it to beat someone who was expecting to beat the shit out of you?

If your team starts fading in the next couple weeks, don't give up. Keep in mind that you can ruin someone else's playoff dreams. And as they* always say, ruining someone else's dream is the American dream.

Take pride in your team from beginning to end. I know your team didn't turn out the way you wanted it to, but give yourself the last smile, the last laugh. Take out that sweaty mess of an owner who needs one more win to make the playoffs. Show him or her that you shouldn't fuck with my bad team. You mess with the bull and you get the shit.

Besides, do you really want to keep losing, you big fat loser that no one likes, not even your mother**?

*Yeah, I've heard a lot of people say this. And by a lot, I mean...shut up and read.

**I'm just assuming this. Why should your mother love you if you suck at fantasy football? Mine wouldn't.

The Finals Countdown: NBA Playoff Preview (2K12 version)

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are right around the corner. I got half of the Finals right last year (Heat but no Thunder). Now, that particular match-up is the one that many would like to see (and one that many expect to see).

The Spurs expect to make a strong push as they get the #1 seed in the West for the 2nd year in a row. Somehow, they were written off by many (except for my friend Tom), probably because their age was looked at as a detriment in the compacted schedule due to the lockout.  Popovich (along with Thibodeau and Vogel) should be considered a front-runner for Coach of the Year with how he has been able to manage his version of the Big Three (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) along with the rest of his roster. I came across a stat on Twitter (didn't double check it, so take this for what it's worth) that the Spurs only lost 3 games total when their roster (I assume their normal starters) was at full strength.

The Thunder look like a good bet to make a run. Coming off of his third straight scoring title, Kevin Durant looks to have a complete squad around him (another scoring option in Westbrook, solid defenders in Harden and Ibaka, a veteran with a few rings in Derek Fisher). I'm looking at Spurs/Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder taking it.

The top spot in the East goes to the Bulls again. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose due to various injuries for what seemed like months, Tom Thibodeau was able to muster out a 50-16 record and the top overall seed in the NBA. However, no matter how much Bulls and their fans may be happy with the #1 seed in the East, they will (and should) be ultimately judged on whether they can make the next step in the 2012 Playoffs and advance to the NBA Finals. This will likely involve a matchup versus the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When the season started, we all wanted to just fast-forward into the end of May and get the Miami/Chicago series going already - pretty much dismissing the rest of the East. While I still think this will be the series, my convictions on the series are not as strong. I'm not sure if Miami has been on cruise control in the regular season and waiting for the playoffs to step everything up, but they've given me an uneasy feeling in terms of backing them to win it all. They had a two-week streak earlier this year of beating teams by 12+ points, so I know there's a championship caliber team there if they play up to their talent level.

Last year, the Heat took four straight after losing Game 1 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of the credit for that series win goes to LeBron's defense on Rose, one of the few guys who can match Rose's speed and has many inches on the reigning MVP. I'd say the Bulls look better as a team this year, but the playoffs are a different matter. I still think the Heat will take the East, especially with Rose's health lingering as a constant question throughout the year. If Rose can maintain a semblence of health, I'd give the Bulls a good shot of winning it. BUT, and it's a big BUT, someone else will need to step up as a scorer in the series in the event LBJ contains Rose just as well as last year. With Rose's health in question, I have to give the Heat the edge.

You may argue that the Bulls played well (even against the Heat) without Rose this year, but they will need Rose at his best in a 7-game series (no matter how deep their bench) against the Heat.

So for the second year in a row, I'm going Heat/Thunder in the finals, with the Heat winning it. It's not much of a reach, but it's just what I see happening. If you care to provide your own opinions, I'm all ears.

Eastern Conference Playoffs
R1: Bulls over Sixers (sweeeeeep); Celtics over Atlanta in 6 (I can't trust Atlanta. Ever.) Miami over NY in 5; Pacers over Magic in 6
R2: Bulls over Celtics in 7 (trying to duplicate their series from 2010, with the reverse result); Miami over Indiana in 6
ECF: Miami over Chicago in 6

Western Conference Playoffs
R1: Spurs over Jazz in 5; Memphis over LAC in 6; Denver over LAL in 6 (they will miss World Peace); Thunder over Mavericks in 6
R2: Spurs over Memphis in 7; Thunder over Denver in 5
WCF: Thunder over Spurs in 6

Finals
Heat over Thunder in 6.

Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel, Pacers
League MVP: LBJ, Miami
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cle
6th Man: James Harden, OKC
Improved Player: Ryan Anderson, Magic
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC

Goals/Bucket List Re-analyzed

A nice and easy blog - gonna look at my goals through the first 20 days of the year

1. 100+ blogs - this will be blog 10 in the 20th day of the year. While I don't think I'll be able to keep with a blog every other day pace, it looks like I will be more consistent than last year in posting blogs. Keep with the feedback and I'll keep with the writing.
2. 3000 Tweets & Gain 50 Followers (Go over 100) - I started the year with 1022 tweets and 58 followers; currently at 1222 and 75 (although some of these followers may disappear since they appear to be fake accounts). I'm at 10 tweets/day, so I'd beat my year goal by 2 months. The followers stat may be deceiving, but hopefully I'll continue to get some legit followers.
3. Get a Mac Computer & Become Solid at Final Cut Pro again - working on this - the time of the year I get this depends on the Niners making the Super Bowl
4. Listen to all 4500+ songs on my I-Pod at some point this year - I'm through 440 songs in 20 days (22 songs a day). At this pace, I'd finish my playlist in July. With how often I drive to and from the city these days, it's very possible I get this done before the summer ends.
5. Learn to design a website - looks to be an end of year goal.
6. Keep getting better/more knowledgeable about sports gambling - work in progress

Updated bucket list

1. Baseball Road Trip (Achieved)
2. Watch the Final Game of a Sport (Achieved)
3. Attending NFL Playoff Game (Achieved) - And what an achievement it was. Best. Game. Ever.
4. Attend MLB Playoff Game (Achieved)
5. Yankees/Red Sox
6. Duke/North Carolina (NCAAB)
7. Packers/Bears (not achieved) - working on these. Would like to hit up at least one of these 3 by the end of the year.
8. Big Ten football stadium outside of Illinois (likely Mich vs. OSU) (not achieved) - work in progress
9. SEC football (LSU, Bama or Florida) (not achieved) - work in progress; doubt I'll get to this in 2012.
10. The first weekend of March Madness...
11. and the Super Bowl....in Vegas (not achieved) - goal is to get one of these achieved in 2013.
12. The Super Bowl (not achieved) - this may be the surprise item that gets eliminated first. I got some great news from the boss about a bonus that could cover most of the costs for this. My dad/mom say I should use the money for student loans, but I've been responsible enough with money for so long, it's gonna happen if the Niners make it there. I've already talked myself into this.

So far, I'd say my goals/bucket list are progressing nicely. I hope your goals are going just as well. Hopefully you've set some reasonable ones that you can reach.

Thanks for reading once again.

The Game of My Life

Oh when the Saints....go marching out.....

In the same endzone Terrell Owens caught The Catch II about 13 years ago, Vernon Davis secured an Alex Smith touchdown pass with 9 seconds left that brought Candlestick Park off its hinges in Saturday's 36-32 win over the Saints. Coupled with the Packers loss yesterday, the Niners get a chance to create another playoff miracle at home.

The Niners' last three playoff games at home have produced Instant Classics:

Niners 36, Saints 32 (1/14/2012) - Any football fan who watched this one got treated to the game of the week (possibly the year). Despite Drew Brees' 400 million passing yards, our own QB (which I was reluctant to call him to start the year to say the least) created his own page in 49ers playoff miracles. I'm not quite sure how I can ever go to a better game than this in my lifetime - and this is not hyperbole talking.

Here's the best catch I've ever seen made in my life. I will get teary-eyed watching on highlight shows for the next decades to come: Vernon Davis catch

Oh when the Saints go marching out...

Niners 39, Giants 38 (1/5/2003) - I remember watching this game in the basement with some of my friends. When the score reached 38-14 in the third quarter, I was having my doubts. But a spirited comeback led by Jeff Garcia (331 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) helped give the Niners one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history (next to the Frank Reich/Buffalo Bills comeback). The game ended with a botched field goal snap leading to a duck of a pass that seemed to be airborne for several minutes. I panicked seeing a flag down by the area where a Giants player was pushed down, but the penalty was called on the Giants.

The next week, we lost to the eventual SB champion Buccaneers.

Niners 30, Packers 27 (1/3/1999) - This is when The Catch II happened, but we got lucky on that last drive when a Jerry Rice catch wasn't ruled a fumble on the field. Still, the game, like the two mentioned above, featured a 4th quarter comeback. Out of the three, it also featured the best QB matchup in Favre vs. Young.

Like Saturday's game, it had the opponent score a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. Also eerily similar (as mentioned before) was the spot of the field that the Niners played hauled in the winning score, with similar jarring hits that the receivers (1999 - TO, 2012 - Vernon Davis) absorbed while holding onto the ball. The comeback against the Giants featured a touchdown with a minute left as well - I don't know how we keep getting in these close home playoff games spread apart, but we do. While the Saints game, we didn't need to score a TD with less than 10 seconds left, in these other games we did.

Here's TO's catch...another chill-inducer: TO catch


Oh how would I love to be in that stadium, when the Saints go marching out!

Internal debate resides within me on whether I will go to this next game. If I do go, I'm likely staring at buying a solo ticket since most of my friends cannot afford this expenditure, the g/f is going to Puerto Rico this week, and I doubt my friend Matt will want to go again. I'd also be looking for a way to make this a Sunday morning flight, cab it right to stadium and then possibly come back the same night.

Realistically, I'll be watching it with loyal B-Bo Knows readers Chris Williams and Nick Pazoles. I'm giving myself a Tuesday night deadline on buying these tickets. I need a break from San Fran to assess it rationally and financially.

Now finally....time to get some sleep. A work week awaits me. I'm sure I'll have a Niners preview cooked up later in the week.

Where ever I watch Sunday's game against the Giants, I will wear my Niner heart on my sleeve, rooting on my team that keeps adding to its playoff lore and hopefully has a few more victories left in the tank.

Obligatory 2012 Playoff Predictions & Look Back

As an occasional blogger of sporting items, I'm required by law to give my Super Bowl predictions.

Before I do that, I'm looking back on my pre-season predictions, which I picked Green Bay over San Diego (half of that prediction makes me hurl - and no Bears fans, it's not the GB part). At least my NFC Championship of GB vs NO looks reasonable.

Not counting the 3 teams that I said would get the exact win total set forth by Vegas, I went 15-14 in predicting over/unders of win totals (based on win projections in early August). My best division was the AFC East, as I correctly projected the division order & 2 of the teams' win totals on the dot (NE & Buf). Worst division, convienently enough, was the NFC West, in which I would have been on the wrong side of all 4 totals.

I predicted 4 of the 8 division winners: GB, NO, Hou & NE.
Whiffed bad on some of the others: Phil, StL, Pitt (not so bad), SD

I got 8 of the 12 playoff participants right, going wrong on guessing Phil, StL, SD & NYJ.

Overall, I give myself a B- on predictions. Usually, I don't get that many playoff teams right, and my Super Bowl winner is still alive.


On to the 2012 Predictions (Redux)

I already gave my first-round predictions:

Pitt over Den (Pitt covers -8), NO over Det (Det covers +11), Hou over Cin (Hou covers -4), NYG over Atl (NYG covers -3)

From there, that'd lead to the following matchups (and predicted point spread) in Divisional Round:

Pitt +5 at NE - I give NE the win and cover - Pitt may be too banged up to survive this year beyond Denver.
Hou +8.5 at Balt - Baltimore smells blood here. They grab the 2 score win and cover.
NO -3.5 at SF - I don't want to get my hopes up and say SF wins, I say they cover but don't win. NO by 3.
NYG +9.5 at GB - Things never go exactly like they should in the divisional round - I say NYG pulls out the upset straight up at Lambeau, a la 2008. NYG's pass rush will give Rodgers fits.

Conference championship

NYG +9.5 at NO - NO would loooooove to have another home game after this weekend, and if my predictions come true, they'll get another. Brees has hit the ground running in the last half of the year since the Rams loss, winning their last 8 games by a 35-18 margin, averaging 490 yards/game while allowing 390/game in that span (a whopping 100 yards per game. In this streak includes a late Novermber beatdown of NYG. I think NYG's luck will end here - NO goes to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 years and wins by 14.

Balt +3 at NE - As everyone who watches football this year knows, NE has a defense that would make the Swiss military look tough. I think Baltimore will be able to expose this weakness: Rice goes off for a 200 yards combined day, and their defense will do enough to thwart NE's pass offense. Still feels weird backing Balt (Flacco) over NE (Brady), but here we are. Welcome to 2012!

Super Bowl

Balt (+4) vs NO - Classic matchup between strong offense vs elite defense (moreso than Balt/NE - I consider NO more well-rounded and talented) in the final game. The initial edge has to go to the Saints, seeing as though the game is in a dome and they have been playing games like they're collecting medals at a track meet. However, on the game's biggest stage, I say defense wins out and we see John Harbaugh hoisting the Lombardi, with constant obligatory viewings of his bitter brother Jim watching from a press box.

Your 2012 Super Bowl Champions: the Baltimore Ravens!

Feel free to offer your own predictions. I'll probably whiff on many of these (per usual), and I hope I do. I'd love SF to win to collect on my $50 Super Bowl bet from a few weeks ago (to win $750), oh yeah, and cuz I'm a fan of them....(yeah, that reason as well).

Enjoy the playoffs everyone.

Shooting the Star: How Jerry Jones Has Lost His Way (Plus Week 1 Playoff Picks)

I had a friend tell me a couple months ago that Jerry Jones was heading towards becoming the next Al Davis. I thought it was a good point at the time - now I think it's a fantastic point.

Earlier this week, Jerry Jones reiterated that he was going to stay the owner/president/general manager/vice lord/whatever titles I'm missing of the Dallas Cowboys.

Quoth the vice lord: "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way."

Good point, oh wise one.

Problem is, your team has one playoff win in the playoffs the past 15 years - only Detroit has had less playoff wins in the NFC in that time frame.

His dynasty was mostly inherited when he bought the Cowboys in 1989, at which point Dallas was on the precipice of its success thanks to the Hershel Walker trade. In case you don't know, Walker, a stud Cowboy running back at the time, was traded to the Vikings (along with 4 future draft picks) for 5 players and 8 (edited, wrote down 13 originally)!!! future draft picks.

A few of these guys did some stuff. You may have heard of Emmitt Smith. Possibly Darren Woodson. Alvin Harper for those of you who know Michael Irvin's compliment in the Super Bowl days.

Since their last Super Bowl, not much good has come from the Cowboys organization.

Here are the list of starting QBs since Aikman retired in 2000, according to Wiki:

Tony Romo (77 starts), Quincy Carter (31), Drew Bledsoe (22), Vinny Testaverde (15), Jon Kitna (9), Chad Hutchinson...remember him Bears fans? (9), Anthony Wright (3), Brad Johnson (3), Ryan Leaf (3), Clint Stoerner (2), Stephen McGee (1), Drew Henson (1).

All you need to know - Quincy Carter started nearly 2 seasons-worth of games since the last of the big Cowboys left. Better yet, their best quarterback (yes, he is their best QB since Aikman) -Romo - wasn't even a drafted player. Thank Sean Payton for bringing him into Dallas when he was the offensive coordinator there.

Back to the point...Jerry Jones should not be holding so many titles. If you see your coach (i.e. Mike Shannahan) or owner holding so many titles, it usually comes at the expense of the quality of the team. Shannahan has yet to have success outside of the Elway/Terrell Davis-era of the Broncos. The same thing happened with Al Davis, who had success early as an owner/general manager from the mid 60s till mid 80s but completely tailed off from the mid 90s until his death in 2011.

Sometimes, people take on too many roles within a company, and it ends up hurting the product. No one knows how these guys may have done with actual GMs in their bad stretches, but one could deduce that these guys should not have held on to their multiple roles at once.

But as any area of life with business goes, sometimes power gets the best of people. "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way" becomes the justification for staying in your multiple positions.

The business-owner in him, a man who swings his junk around as if he wants to win more than any other owner, should be ashamed for pretending the past 15 years of his business have been successful enough for him to keep things "exactly the same way".

Week 1 Playoff Picks

Houston -3 vs Cincy
NYG -3 vs Atl
Det +11 at NO (NO wins but doesn't cover)
Pitt -8 at Den

This sets up NO at SF, NYG at GB in the NFC; Hou at Balt & Pitt at NE. I could see 2-3 road teams winning in round 2 if this were the set-up.

Go Niners!

The Niner Points in Life

Ahhhh, it's been a while, but for the first time in close to a decade, I know what it feels like to be a fan of a good football team.

The last time I was in this position, I had yet to reach legal drinking age (emphasis on legal).

The last time I was here, Terrell Owens was still on his first team (not attempting to join his 6th or 7th team) and was dominating his position like no other.

Since we last experienced playoff football, we have had the likes of Jeff Garcia, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Trent Dilfer, Chris Weinke, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith leading our teams to mediocre seasons at best, and outright unwatchable seasons at their very worst.

Joe Montana and Steve Young took more talented dumps than these guys.

Playing Har-baugh

So with no radical changes to the 2010 team, why is this team sitting at 7-1 and already 5 games up in its division?

Look no further than the new coach for the dramatic change.

Harbaugh is doing things with the Niners that would make Criss Angel blush. He's turned Alex Smith into a competent quarterback. Smith is still not a guy I'd bank on long-term (or even to lead us to championship game/Super Bowl appearances), but for this season, he has cut down on his mistakes and has actually led the Niners to several 4th quarter comebacks - all on the road (Bengals, Eagles, Lions - all talented/playoff-caliber teams).

In fact, the Niners are a fantastic 4-0 away from San Francisco, and we have yet to play any of our weak division on the road yet. With the disparity in the division based on the Niners record and the rest of the division, you'd say that we should win all of those games (5 division games left), but realistically, I expect 3-2 or 4-1 record, as upsets are not that uncommon.


Down The Road: New Expectations

Having said this, I feel like the Niners have over a 50/50 shot at getting a first-round bye this year. A 12-4 record wouldn't shock me with the remaining schedule, and I think the Giants and Saints/Falcons will end up with 11-5 records at best. This week's game against NYG will go a long way in determining their seeding.

I don't think they'll win more than a game in the playoffs, but the fact that we are talking about the playoffs is an amazing leap that I did not expect. I hope I'm wrong about this and we're talking about San Fran still playing in February - but for now, I'll enjoy this current run they're on and hope it continues into the winter months.

The fact that I am discussing going to San Fran some weekend in January with the g/f makes me happy for several reasons: (1) that I have a g/f I can make tentative plans with two months in advance and (2) the Niners being a playoff quality team.

I remain reserved about the Niners' chances, but for how way off I was about them entering this year, I can't really complain with what happens from here.

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

The Wrong Remains the Same

Naturally, my 3rd attempt at a World Series is wrong. The Rays were the first team eliminated from the MLB playoffs a few days ago, with either the Tigers or Yankees soon to join them. If the Tigers (my AL team in the WS in my 2nd prediction) lose, make that 3 for 3 on failed World Series predictions.

When you're gonna be wrong, make sure you're really, really wrong.

Robin & Bat Men - The Surprise Hire on the South Side

The White Sox shocked everyone by hiring one of their former players as manager. Robin Ventura comes back to the South Side not only new to managing, but also a cherry when it comes to coaching. The shock of hiring him should begin and end with that fact.

Reinsdorf is not a fan of spending money on managers (i.e. hiring managers with experience), so anyone who has seen his history should know that Terry Francona (who would have likely commanded double what they were going to pay Ozzie) was never really a serious option.

I wish Ventura well, but he's gonna need some help. Paging crazy Kenny Williams signing/trade.

King Wrong

Aside from my World Series predictions, other things I've been wrong on lately:

• Detroit Lions - While I don't think they will win the NFC North, the Lions have shown to me that they are in it to win it (love me some cliches). Megatron's catch in triple coverage last week in their comeback victory against the Cowboys just goes to show you how unguardable he is. Best receiver in the league.
• San Francisco 49ers - I know it's still early, but the Niners are the only team in the NFL w/ a 2 game lead on everyone in its division. They have one of the best defenses in the league so far statistically, but their offense is horsecrap. It did shows some signs of life against the Eagles. I never would have guessed that Alex Smith would have engineered two 4th quarter comebacks for the season, yet alone back-to-back road games. Maybe there is something to Jim Harbaugh and molding quarterbacks. He's the best coach that Alex Smith has had in his career.
• Fantasy football - specifically my money leagues. In my three money leagues, I am sporting a combined 2-10 record, with my only two wins in the league that I am the commissioner. In one of the leagues, injuries have exposed lack of depth; the other 0-4 league shows mild promise, but I doubt it is any more salvageable than the other winless league. Looks like my energy of winning $ this year will come solely from my gambling pursuits.

Fools Gold Play of the Week - Week 5
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5) - So far, the theme for the Fools Gold pick has been spotting a road team (always a favorite) that has caught the public's eye as "The Team to Bet" for the week. This week, a road favorite has caught my attention all the same for this column, but for the opposite reason.

Every Sunday night or Monday morning, I always look at the next week's schedule of games and set my own lines before looking on 5dimes to see what gamblers have set the line at. Over the years, I have gotten sharp at getting close to every game on the schedule to within a point of the spread that ends up being released. The games I am far apart on the bookmakers, I will usually assess what caused the difference in line.

My line on the Bills/Eagles game had Buffalo as a 2 point favorite, so needless to say, I was shocked when the Eagles were a -2.5 point favorite in my book. Never before has there been a 1-3 team favorites to a 3-1 team when the 3-1 team is hosting, so my shock was justified in seeing the line.

However, after thinking about the Eagles' losses and actively watching two of them from beginning to end, I'm reminded of how talented the Eagles are and how close they were to being 4-0 (Vick injuries in week 2 and 3 and turnovers/missed kicks in week 4). This isn't to say that the Bills are push-overs, but I don't think their defense will be sharp enough to handle the Eagles plethora of weapons. You could say the same thing about the Patriots game, but if you watch that game, several of the interceptions were not really caused by the Bills defense but rather the Patriots receivers themselves.

I think the Eagles get back on track en route to getting back to a playoff caliber level. Eagles win by 10. This week's pick (and already booked): Philadelphia -2.5

Last week's result: Cincy covered the +3 spread in a straight-up victory of Buffalo

YTD: Fools Gold is sporting a 4-0 record.  I have bet on the last three games on 5dimes (2 spreads, 1 money line) and have profited $170.

Likely Week 5 Picks

Carolina +6.5/7 vs. New Orleans - Cam Newton has rejuvenated a Panthers offense that was completely anemic last year. So far, Carolina has went 3-0-1 against the spread (the only record gamblers care about), which shows me that Carolina is improving. I thought that the Bears' defense might cause him some problems last week, but was I wrong (the wrong theme continues). I think the Panthers will keep this close and may even pull off an upset. I'm hoping to catch this line at +7.

Atlanta +6/7 vs. Green Bay - I hope to get Atlanta at +7. Matt Ryan is money at home, so spotting him a touchdown sounds more insane than betting against the Packers at this point. Falcons are a different home team and will get some revenge for their embarrassing loss to the Packers in the playoffs in January

Detroit -5 vs. Chicago - Now that the Lions have the attention of the nation, it only makes sense that they make their first Monday Night appearance in eons this week. The Bears showed themselves to be solid against Matt Ryan in Week 1, but have been shredded up by Drew Brees (270 yards, 3 TDs), Aaron Rodgers (297 yards, 3 TDs) and Cam Newton (374 yards, 1 TD). I expect Stafford to continue what he's been doing with Calvin Johnson, who has destroyed all corners and safeties that have come his way.

Other bets I am considering: Indy -2.5; NYJ +9.5. No totals have caught my eye yet.

Gambling on NFL & NCAA so far:

Week 4	Week 5
NFL 3-5, -$75	NCAA 0-0
Totals 0-4, -$220	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-0	MLs 0-0
Spreads 3-1, $145	Spreads 0-0
YTD: 18-12-3, +$314	YTD: 8-12, -$325
Totals: 7-5-1, +$127	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-0, +$126	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 9-7-2, +81	Spreads: 8-6, +$65

As always, I recommend following my picks on twitter.com/brianbolek or @brianbolek

Enjoy this week's action. I haven't decided if I'm betting any NCAA yet. Last week I held off, in part to not liking much and in part to the Buddy thing.

Good luck to your fantasy teams, bets and most importantly, your REAL teams!

We're Talking Baseball: Excitement, Disrespect & Playoff Predictions

Random baseball thoughts:

Blowing the Load

If baseball's amazing action yesterday were analogized in sexual terms, one might say that MLB blew it all out on the foreplay part.

What a kickoff to the baseball playoffs. It was the most excited I've been watching baseball since 2005. Unfortunately, I don't see there being an opportunity to go up from here.

Sure, there will be moments that stick out. Perhaps another walk-off home run to decide a game or a great catch at the wall that prevents a bases-clearing double in the late innings could capture our attentions briefly.

To get that kind of excitement from many different games at once, however, will be nearly impossible to match.

Tampa Bay Rons

Putting baseball in a political spectrum, Tampa Bay reminds me much of Ron Paul. All of the semantics surrounding their entry into the playoffs is all about the Red Sox collapse, not Tampa Bay's strong push to make it to this point. This is much like anytime Dr. Paul is mentioned (or more appropriately, not mentioned) in an article addressing percentages in the polls.

The Cardinals get more credit for their comeback to make the playoffs than the Rays do - which has to do with the news market having an interest in the Cardinals (particularly their history) and very little interest in a team lucky to draw 15,000 fans to a game. Also, it helps when the team that collapsed is based in the Northeast, where much of the mainstream media are based - and of course, another team that is rich in history throughout the history of baseball.

If the Rays win the World Series, Sportscenter may promote it as "Phillies Collapse" rather than promoting the victors. I could see the same for Ron Paul if he were lucky enough to get put on the Republican ticket - "Obama Falters in Re-Election Bid".

Rooting Interest

Speaking of the Rays, I definitely have a financial stake in rooting for them to win it all. On Tuesday when they were tied with the Red Sox, my site had the Rays' odds of winning the WS at 18/1, so I threw 20 on it.

In the other AL series, I am hoping that the Tigers can pull it out. My last live bet on BookMaker is a $10 bet to win the World Series at 40/1.

The NL team with the best odds (best being relative on value) on 5dimes is the Brewers, coming in at 8/1. I am debating a small bet on them as well.

What's Your Fantasy?

Baseball isn't as sexy of a sport for me to play in the fantasy sports realm of life. This was my first year of the past 4 where I didn't play a money league.

However, I still do take some pride in my teams, and I'll take any championship that I can. Even if it means when I didn't really win it, per se. I finished a league with the top seed and had my pitching carry me to a 6-6 tie. However, since I held the top seed and that's the first tiebreaker, I took down the crown. My other leagues lent themselves to average finishes (6 of 12 and 7 of 10), so I really wanted this one bad.

Analyzing My Preseason Picks/Making New Ones

Back in March, I wrote a piece on my predictions for the MLB season, foolishly selecting the White Sox losing to the Phillies in the Fall Classic. While I was way off on half of that, I think the second of that is looking pretty strong entering October.

Division predictions that went well: Brewers and Rangers were my only correct predictions.
Division predictions that faded during the second half: The Giants could never muster any offense to support their strong staff and the Red Sox did their best to mirror the beginning and end of their season.
Division predictions that never had a chance: The Twins (last place finish) and Braves (distant second place) were easily bested.
Wild cards: White Sox (oooooops) and Phillies (tried being cute and having them win the World Series after winning the wild card).

New prediction for the World Series (part 3): Phillies over Rays
My first prediction bombed. My midseason prediction (Phils over Tigers) could very well happen. I just like the Rays' pitching over the other teams left in the AL.

Even though I'd rather have one of my bets come in, I don't see Philly's staff being bested. Pitching carries teams in the postseason.

NFL/College blog to come tomorrow.

Have a good evening everyone.

Another Heated Rivalry?

(Fan blog 3 of 6 - idea provided by Brad Zoeteman)



Pistons/Bulls: The Start of Rivalries in Chicago Basketball

Back in the late 1980s, the Detroit Pistons were the thorn in the side of the Chicago Bulls. The Bad Boys from Motown knocked the Bulls out of the playoffs 3 straight times (1988-1990). In all three of those seasons, the Pistons made it to the Finals, winning back-to-back titles in 1989 and 1990. It was the type of rivalry that sparked interest in Chicago basketball to a new generation of fans all across the country. It had the perfect set-up of good guys vs. the Bad Boys, and right at the dawn of the merging of Jordan and Nike. It was a fan's dream and a marketing firm's wet dream rolled into one.

As everyone knows, the Bulls took "the next step" in 1991, overcoming the Pistons in impressive fashion- a 4 game sweep en route to their first franchise championship. Many people took note of the classless way the Pistons left the court without shaking hands with the Bulls - I say it doesn't really matter much and if anything, should be expected from the Bad Boys.



bullsheat

Fast forward 20 years later. The Bulls are in their first conference finals since the Jordan era ended (1997-98). By all accounts, this season came as a surprise to Bulls nation, who were expecting an improvement with the added free agents and another offseason of improvement for Rose, but nothing like this. Vegas thought the same, pegging the Bulls over/under for wins at 47, which was eclipsed with ease.

Their conference final opponent had much different expectations entering the season. Following "El Decision", the Heat were considered co-favorites (along with the Lakers) to win the title. ESPN couldn't get enough footage of these guys, and the cockiness of the newly-formed trio of Wade, James and Bosh leaked into the community. A bar owner promised to pay $25 credit to each customer who watched the whole Heat game every time the Heat lost a game- here's the damage that their season did to him, as of March 8th: (Heat bar owner).

Miami has righted the ship and are actually 2/1 favorites against Chicago despite the Bulls owning the home court advantage. This has to do with the Bulls looking human against fairly average teams in Indiana and Atlanta as much as it does with the Heat looking like the team many expected them to be in the first two rounds. Chicago enters as the underdog despite beating the Heat all three times in the regular season (by a total of 8 points).

And I agree - the Heat should be favorites in spite of those two factors (home court and regular season success). As the playoffs have shown- save game 6 with Boozer playing for his $15M in one game, where Derrick Rose goes, so go the Bulls. If the size/length of whoever they have covering Rose (Wade, James, etc.) affects Rose, more game 6-like performances from Boozer and others are going to need to appear in order for the Bulls to even have a chance in the series. Also, if Udonis Haslem is able to shake the rust of recovering from his injury that kept him out for the whole season up until the middle of last series, the Heat will get an inside presence that will make the lane that much more difficult for Rose to drive through.



Bulls/Heat: Can it deliver like Bulls/Pistons?

Now, the point of the blog, as addressed by Brad: Will the Bulls/Heat rivalry mirror that of the Bulls/Pistons? I believe the short answer, in terms of the intensity of it and the long-term success of both teams, is NO.

I believe the Heat are in much better position to win multiple titles over the next 7-8 years compared to the Bulls. Everyone critiques the Heat for lacking a bench, but when these guys are playing 43-44 minutes in the playoffs and playing better than all of their peers, who the hell needs a bench? Sure, there may be a game where foul trouble plagues James and/or Wade and their opponents capitalize. In the long run though, I'd rather have the Heat's core of players than the Bulls, who outside of Rose don't have anyone who you can say will be a consistent All-Star player for the next 6-8 years.

That's not to say that the Bulls won't get those pieces in the future. However, if the NBA institutes a hard salary cap, these big salaries to Noah, Boozer and Rose (only the latter deserves to be paid like an all-star) will make it difficult to get the elusive second scoring option for Rose to dish it off to. You can forget about the Bulls getting Howard if that happens (even if the hard cap doesn't happen, I see Howard going to Boston or LA before he goes to Chicago).

For the Bulls/Heat to even come close to Bulls/Pistons, some of these players need to make themselves true enemies to the opposing fans (taunting, technical fouls, etc.) as opposed to offseason shenanigans (like The Decison and what followed from that) and it should be a defensive-dominated series, where points are a struggle and you can see the players' frustrations with trying to break each team's defense (two of the top defenses in the league this year). But most importantly, they need to face each other at least a handful of times in the next 2-3 years and need to have competitive series. It can't be a rivalry if one team sweeps the other year in, year out (cough, Michigan/Illinois football).

To properly judge this, we will need to see how each of the teams do in the next 3-4 years. Unfortunately for the Bulls, I see their shelf life short-lived if they can't add players better than Boozer and Noah to compliment Rose.