I have this old-man phrase in my head as I was thinking of rookie running backs and how they've gone (or at least seemed to have gone) from highly-wanted commodities to mid-round fodder in NFL drafts in my lifetime. Given the rule changes that favor explosive passing games, it's not much of a shock to see this happening. (an aside: what's more shocking is the lack of shock for Indianapolis trading a FIRST-ROUND pick for a running back this season)
This year, there's a couple of rookies making noise - Eddie Lacy and Zac Stacy are the first who come to mind. But only those two backs and possibly Le'Veon Bell even have a chance at cracking the 800 yard mark.
A year to year breakdown of rookie tail backs who've ran for 800+ yards (at least 50 yards/team game) shows this trend of their declining value (with highest rookie in parenthesis):
1993: 3 backs (Jerome Bettis 1429)
 |
| Edgerrin James |
1995: 4 backs (Curtis Martin 1487)
1996: 2 backs (Eddie George 1368)
1997: 4 backs (Corey Dillon 1129)
1998: 2 backs (Fred Taylor 1223)
1999: 3 backs (Edgerrin James 1553)
2000: 2 backs (Mike Anderson 1487)
2001: 3 backs (LaDainian Tomlinson 1236)
2002: 2 backs (Clinton Portis 1508)
(Total of 28 players, highs ranging from 1129 to 1508)
2003: 1 back (Domanick Williams 1031)
2004: 3 backs (Willis McGahee 1128)
2005: 2 backs (Cadillac Williams 1178)
 |
| Alfred Morris |
2007: 3 backs (Adrian Peterson 1341)
2008: 4 backs (Matt Forte 1238)
2009: 1 back (Knowshon Moreno 947)
2010: 1 back (LeGarrette Blount 1007)
2011: 2 backs (Ben Tate 942)
2012: 5 backs* (Alfred Morris 1613)
(Total of 24 players, highs ranging from 942 to 1613)
*includes a non-running back (RG3)
Now, the rookie receivers who have broken the 800+ yard barrier in that time:
 |
| Randall Moss |
1993: 1 (Terry Kirby 874)* (highest WR - James Jett 771)
1994: 2 (Darnay Scott 866)
1995: 3 (Joey Galloway 1039)
1996: 4 (Terry Glenn 1132)
1997: 0 (highest - Rae Carruth 545)
1998: 1 (Randy Moss 1313)
1999: 1 (Kevin Johnson 986)
2000: 0 (highest - Darrell Jackson 713)
2001: 1 (Chris Chambers 883)
2002: 1 (Jeremy Shockey 894)** (highest WR - Antonio Bryant 733)
(Total of 14 players, highs ranging from 545 to 1313)
*running back
**tight end
2003: 2 (Anquan Boldin 1377)
 |
| Anquan Boldin |
2005: 0 (highest - Reggie Brown 571)
2006: 2 (Marques Colston 1038)
2007: 1 (Dwayne Bowe 995)
2008: 2 (Eddie Royal 998)
2009: 0 (highest - Hakeem Nicks/Percy Harvin - 790)
2010: 2 (Mike Williams 964)
2011: 3 (AJ Green 1057)
2012: 3 (Justin Blackmon 865)
(Total of 18 players, highs ranging from 571 to 1377)
The numbers aren't completely there yet, but the last three years (with at least 2 receivers gaining 800+ yards) show a potential trend in the making. So far in 2013, there are six players (including tight end Jordan Reed) averaging over 45 receiving yards a game, which would blow any of these previous seasons out of the water.
While there has been a rookie running back with at least 800 yards every season in the past 20 years, there doesn't seem to be as many consistent workhorse running backs coming out of college. One major reason for that could be the NFL mirroring the college game (more two-back systems and much more focus on the passing game than ever before). Last year showed a sudden uptick in big efforts from rookie backs, but will that continue? Ultimately, I think 2012 will be proven to be the exception.
I believe this trend will continue (rising numbers in rookie wideouts and lowered numbers in rookie backs) for the foreseeable future, as the rule changes in the recent past indicate a heavy emphasis on protecting quarterbacks and wide receivers from huge hits.
