If you're a gambler and like most people I know who gamble, you usually like to bet favorites at a high rate. If you're doing that this year, you're doing yourself wrong. Way wrong.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
Showing posts with label new york giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label new york giants. Show all posts
9/03/2012
Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: NY Giants
As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.
Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.
My ninth (and possibly final) feature highlights a very humble New York Giants fan. Russ Williamson has been a Chicagoan since 2005. Before that, he grew up in New Jersey, where he became a big Giants fan (no, I'm not going for a triple entendre there, although perhaps I am). An aside - If you happen to be going to the city sometime soon, I recommend checking out his comedy act - just look him up.
Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.
My ninth (and possibly final) feature highlights a very humble New York Giants fan. Russ Williamson has been a Chicagoan since 2005. Before that, he grew up in New Jersey, where he became a big Giants fan (no, I'm not going for a triple entendre there, although perhaps I am). An aside - If you happen to be going to the city sometime soon, I recommend checking out his comedy act - just look him up.
Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Denver Broncos
Russ Williamson may be a man who makes a living off of making people laugh, but he is dead serious about his allegiance to the New York Giants.
 |
| A man who makes people laugh, Russ was not amused at B-Bo Knows NYG prediction |
"I didn't really like your prediction," Russ told me. "I don't know where you got that from."
Russ's fandom began around 1990, when the underdog Giants, missing their Hall of Fame QB Phil Simms, upset the Buffalo Bills (the first of four straight Super Bowl losses for the Bills). The game is remembered for the Scott Norwood missed kick as time expired that would have put the Bills ahead.
Russ remembers it for a similar reason, but on a more personal level.
"My dad is a huge Giants fan," he said, "and my earliest memory was how happy he was when the Bills missed that field goal and the Giants were champs."
He doesn't have any issues following the Giants, relying on the Internet to keep him up-to-date on team news and scores. He also has no problem with being a fan of the Giants in a Bears town, unless his team happens to be the opponent.
"When your team plays the Bears, you will be called a (gay slur) at some point (by a Bears fan)," Russ said.
"I don't have a problem with the Bears," he said, "but if they're playing the Giants, I want them to fail miserably."
Being the humble person he is, Russ didn't want to make any predictions about the Giants for the 2012 season.
Ok, I lied.
"I'll be the first to say it here," Russ said, "the Giants repeat."
His thoughts about Eli being immortalized at Canton after winning his second ring - just as indifferent.
"Eli is a Hall of Famer, no doubt," he said.
| Russ Williamson | |
| (Chicagoan since 2005) | |
| Favorite team | Giants |
| A fan since… | 1990 (Giants/Bills in Super Bowl) |
| # of games attended | 1 at MetLife |
| Choice of Team Consumption | TV/Internet |
| Favorite Player All-Time | Lawrence Taylor |
| Favorite Player Currently | Jason Pierre-Paul |
| 2012 Prediction | Super Bowl champs |
| Vegas Win Projection | |
| (as of 9-3-12) 5dimes.eu | 9 wins |
| Over/under? | Over |
| Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu | (+205) |
| Super Bowl odds | 45/2 (+2250) |
| (as of 9-3-12) - bovada.lv |
2/04/2012
They're Super (Bowlers), Thanks for Asking!
As the AFC & NFC Championship weekend was about to commence, I was wondering how often a mediocre quarterback has won the Super Bowl. With Alex Smith still in contention, this was a reasonable thing to research.
Smith & the 49ers lost, but that didn't stop me from researching the history of Super Bowl quarterbacks and how many of the quarterbacks were average (or at the very least, not Hall of Fame worthy).
I broke down the QBs into two different eras - Super Bowls I - XXX (1 thru 30 for the Roman Numerically-impaired) & then the rest (many players since then are not eligible for the Hall yet).
I also took a look at the Pro Football Hall of Fame to see how the QBs from the Super Bowl era are represented. I used several sites that verify starting QBs in the Super Bowl history.
Super Bowls I - XXX Era
During this time, there were only 33 different starting quarterbacks in the 30 year period (out of a possible 60). This shows that many QBs stayed dominant for extended periods of time. During this time, 4 distinct dynasties (Green Bay in 1960s, Pitt in 1970s, SF in 1980s & Dallas in early 90s) dominated the league - so the lack of QBs to appear in the big game makes sense.
18 different QBs won championships (7 QBs won multiple titles) in the first 30 Super Bowls. Out of these, 10 are in Canton, with only one QB (Jim Plunkett) that has failed to make it despite winning multiple Super Bowls. The others who won include average slingers like Jeff Hostetler & Mark Rypien. Surely not worthy of HOF-busts.
Of these champions, 21 of the 30 were won w/ a Hall of Famer behind center. I'm not going to break down the other positions, but I'd have to guess that the 70% clip that QBs have in this time frame of going to the Hall of Fame is the best of any position.
I found it strange that only three Super Bowl losers have had Hall-of-Fame QBs in this time frame: Jim Kelly (lost 4 straight), Fran Tarkenton (lost 3) & Dan Marino (lost 1).
That means that the other 22 Super Bowl losers featured a QB that was less-than-Canton-worthy. Names like Joe Kapp, Tony Eason, Stan Humphries & Neil O'Donnell are among those who could be answers to trivia questions of Super Bowl losing QBs.
Bears fans don't need me to mention Rex Grossman, but that's for another day.
Looking at this group of QBs, it makes me think that Alex Smith making a run in the playoffs and potentially making a Super Bowl wasn't as far-fetched as it seemed. Although one point is clearly proven - you may only need to be an average/above-average QB to make a Super Bowl, but you have to be a spectacular QB (HOF-worthy) to win them consistently.
In fact, only 4 QBs of the 18 who have made the Hall of Fame from the Super Bowl era did not make a single Super Bowl (Warren Moon, George Blanda, Don Fouts, Sonny Jurgeson). It definitely helps a passer's chances to go from having a passing chance of making the Hall of Fame to a legitimate one to make at least one or two Super Bowls (and preferably win one or more).
XXXI - current: More of the Same
There's been 15 Super Bowls in this timeframe, and no surprise, Hall of Fame QBs (future and potential) dominate the appearances. Particularly the AFC, who has seen a trifecta of New England, Pittsburgh & Indianapolis appear in 9 of the past 10 Super Bowls - who by no coincidence have 2 sure-bet Hall of Famers & a potential one (Big Ben being in the latter). This time span also includes John Elway's 2 titles before he retired.
While the NFC has had scattered success (the Giants are the first NFC team in the past 11 years to make 2 Super Bowls), it has still had its share of HOF or fringe-HOFers representing them. Among them: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre & Eli Manning - all of which could make the Hall.
Obviously, like the first 30, the past 15 have seen its share of duds. I count 9 QBs of the 19 who made it in this time frame who definitely will not make it, including two winners (Trent Dilfer & Brad Johnson), 5 who will (Brady, Peyton, Favre, Rodgers, Brees) and several question marks (Eli & Big Ben among them).
If you give all of my ? mark QBs the Hall nod, that'd be 10 of 19 QBs from this era in the Hall. The other ? marks I had were for McNabb, Kurt Warner & Bledsoe, with Warner the most likely of the 3 to make the Hall in my opinion.
Compared to the 70% of Super Bowls in the first 30 to feature a Hall of Famer behind center for the champion, this current era has featured 13 of 15 titles won by HOFs or future HOFs (assuming Eli, Warner & Big Ben would make it). With Brady and Eli facing each other this year, it'll be 14 for 16; so 35 of 46 Super Bowls have been won by a HOF-caliber quarterback.
If you wonder why teams scout this position so carefully in hopes of finding the franchise savior, the above stat is why. Getting the right guy behind center, even if it's just for one championship, can be the difference between the Colts building Lucas Oil Stadium & being in Los Angeles right now if they would have drafted Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton.
As far as the QB category of those who have not made a Super Bowl making it to the Hall in this current era, only Tony Romo comes close to that designation at this point, and if you read the blog I just posted, you'd have to imagine he'd have to make a Super Bowl (and probably win it) to get consideration.
XLVI Prediction
With this being the last football blog before the big game, I am being paid by unnamed sources to provide my Super Bowl pick.
Much of the public is on the Giants, as they have hit their stride since their Week 15 loss to the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Patriots have put together the quietest 10 game winning streak ever. Their bend-but-don't-break defense will be tested by the aerial attack led by Eli Manning, who has greatly benefited from the emergence of Victor Cruz as a top-notch target.
A lot of focus is on the Gronkowski injury, which I believe has gotten a little too much press. Brady has won with crappy receivers before - he wins with subpar receivers better than anyone. And before you say Welker is awesome - I'm in the camp that Brady has made Welker good. His stats broken down:
Pre-New England: 96 catches, 1121 yards, 1 TD in 2 seasons as a receiver with Miami
New England: 111 catches, 1221 yards, 6 TDs AS AN AVERAGE SEASON in 5 years w/ NE
Brady may be the one great QB who doesn't get enough credit for what he has done with such little talent at wide receiver. The only great WR he ever had was Randy Moss, and look what happened the full year that they played with each other. Welker and Hernandez would be sufficient enough of targets for Brady but it looks like Gronk is going to play, which is fantastic for New England.
With how much pressure the Niners got on the Giants line a few weeks ago, I'm surprised that the NE defensive line isn't getting as much attention in the press, particularly Wilfork. I think the Pats will be able to get decent pressure on Eli enough to rattle him.
I'm going Patriots 31-20 (so I'm likely betting Pats -2.5 or 3 and the under of 54).
Good luck to anyone betting this game or anyone who is rooting for either of these teams outside of gambling (you know, that whole fandom thing).
I know my girlfriend is counting down the minutes until football is over and smiling thinking about it, while I'm on the verge of tears as another season ends.
Hey, at least there will be Thursday Night Football almost every week next year!
Smith & the 49ers lost, but that didn't stop me from researching the history of Super Bowl quarterbacks and how many of the quarterbacks were average (or at the very least, not Hall of Fame worthy).
I broke down the QBs into two different eras - Super Bowls I - XXX (1 thru 30 for the Roman Numerically-impaired) & then the rest (many players since then are not eligible for the Hall yet).
I also took a look at the Pro Football Hall of Fame to see how the QBs from the Super Bowl era are represented. I used several sites that verify starting QBs in the Super Bowl history.
Super Bowls I - XXX Era
During this time, there were only 33 different starting quarterbacks in the 30 year period (out of a possible 60). This shows that many QBs stayed dominant for extended periods of time. During this time, 4 distinct dynasties (Green Bay in 1960s, Pitt in 1970s, SF in 1980s & Dallas in early 90s) dominated the league - so the lack of QBs to appear in the big game makes sense.
18 different QBs won championships (7 QBs won multiple titles) in the first 30 Super Bowls. Out of these, 10 are in Canton, with only one QB (Jim Plunkett) that has failed to make it despite winning multiple Super Bowls. The others who won include average slingers like Jeff Hostetler & Mark Rypien. Surely not worthy of HOF-busts.
Of these champions, 21 of the 30 were won w/ a Hall of Famer behind center. I'm not going to break down the other positions, but I'd have to guess that the 70% clip that QBs have in this time frame of going to the Hall of Fame is the best of any position.
I found it strange that only three Super Bowl losers have had Hall-of-Fame QBs in this time frame: Jim Kelly (lost 4 straight), Fran Tarkenton (lost 3) & Dan Marino (lost 1).
That means that the other 22 Super Bowl losers featured a QB that was less-than-Canton-worthy. Names like Joe Kapp, Tony Eason, Stan Humphries & Neil O'Donnell are among those who could be answers to trivia questions of Super Bowl losing QBs.
Bears fans don't need me to mention Rex Grossman, but that's for another day.
Looking at this group of QBs, it makes me think that Alex Smith making a run in the playoffs and potentially making a Super Bowl wasn't as far-fetched as it seemed. Although one point is clearly proven - you may only need to be an average/above-average QB to make a Super Bowl, but you have to be a spectacular QB (HOF-worthy) to win them consistently.
In fact, only 4 QBs of the 18 who have made the Hall of Fame from the Super Bowl era did not make a single Super Bowl (Warren Moon, George Blanda, Don Fouts, Sonny Jurgeson). It definitely helps a passer's chances to go from having a passing chance of making the Hall of Fame to a legitimate one to make at least one or two Super Bowls (and preferably win one or more).
XXXI - current: More of the Same
There's been 15 Super Bowls in this timeframe, and no surprise, Hall of Fame QBs (future and potential) dominate the appearances. Particularly the AFC, who has seen a trifecta of New England, Pittsburgh & Indianapolis appear in 9 of the past 10 Super Bowls - who by no coincidence have 2 sure-bet Hall of Famers & a potential one (Big Ben being in the latter). This time span also includes John Elway's 2 titles before he retired.
While the NFC has had scattered success (the Giants are the first NFC team in the past 11 years to make 2 Super Bowls), it has still had its share of HOF or fringe-HOFers representing them. Among them: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre & Eli Manning - all of which could make the Hall.
Obviously, like the first 30, the past 15 have seen its share of duds. I count 9 QBs of the 19 who made it in this time frame who definitely will not make it, including two winners (Trent Dilfer & Brad Johnson), 5 who will (Brady, Peyton, Favre, Rodgers, Brees) and several question marks (Eli & Big Ben among them).
If you give all of my ? mark QBs the Hall nod, that'd be 10 of 19 QBs from this era in the Hall. The other ? marks I had were for McNabb, Kurt Warner & Bledsoe, with Warner the most likely of the 3 to make the Hall in my opinion.
Compared to the 70% of Super Bowls in the first 30 to feature a Hall of Famer behind center for the champion, this current era has featured 13 of 15 titles won by HOFs or future HOFs (assuming Eli, Warner & Big Ben would make it). With Brady and Eli facing each other this year, it'll be 14 for 16; so 35 of 46 Super Bowls have been won by a HOF-caliber quarterback.
If you wonder why teams scout this position so carefully in hopes of finding the franchise savior, the above stat is why. Getting the right guy behind center, even if it's just for one championship, can be the difference between the Colts building Lucas Oil Stadium & being in Los Angeles right now if they would have drafted Ryan Leaf instead of Peyton.
As far as the QB category of those who have not made a Super Bowl making it to the Hall in this current era, only Tony Romo comes close to that designation at this point, and if you read the blog I just posted, you'd have to imagine he'd have to make a Super Bowl (and probably win it) to get consideration.
XLVI Prediction
With this being the last football blog before the big game, I am being paid by unnamed sources to provide my Super Bowl pick.
Much of the public is on the Giants, as they have hit their stride since their Week 15 loss to the Redskins. Meanwhile, the Patriots have put together the quietest 10 game winning streak ever. Their bend-but-don't-break defense will be tested by the aerial attack led by Eli Manning, who has greatly benefited from the emergence of Victor Cruz as a top-notch target.
A lot of focus is on the Gronkowski injury, which I believe has gotten a little too much press. Brady has won with crappy receivers before - he wins with subpar receivers better than anyone. And before you say Welker is awesome - I'm in the camp that Brady has made Welker good. His stats broken down:
Pre-New England: 96 catches, 1121 yards, 1 TD in 2 seasons as a receiver with Miami
New England: 111 catches, 1221 yards, 6 TDs AS AN AVERAGE SEASON in 5 years w/ NE
Brady may be the one great QB who doesn't get enough credit for what he has done with such little talent at wide receiver. The only great WR he ever had was Randy Moss, and look what happened the full year that they played with each other. Welker and Hernandez would be sufficient enough of targets for Brady but it looks like Gronk is going to play, which is fantastic for New England.
With how much pressure the Niners got on the Giants line a few weeks ago, I'm surprised that the NE defensive line isn't getting as much attention in the press, particularly Wilfork. I think the Pats will be able to get decent pressure on Eli enough to rattle him.
I'm going Patriots 31-20 (so I'm likely betting Pats -2.5 or 3 and the under of 54).
Good luck to anyone betting this game or anyone who is rooting for either of these teams outside of gambling (you know, that whole fandom thing).
I know my girlfriend is counting down the minutes until football is over and smiling thinking about it, while I'm on the verge of tears as another season ends.
Hey, at least there will be Thursday Night Football almost every week next year!
1/20/2012
Final Four, NFL-Style
My favorite Sunday of the sports year is in sight, with the day becoming even more special because of the 49ers first appearance in the NFC Championship since 1998, when they lost to the Packers 23-10.
As my fellow Conference Championship watchers Nick Pazoles and Chris Williams have both said as well, this weekend is our favorite weekend of sports because it usually has two very competitive games featuring high quality teams. This stands to reason that you have to be really good to make it this far, but the NFL always seems to find itself locked into tight battles come their version of the Final Four.
In the last 4 years, the NFC Championship has featured competitive games in all 4 tilts, including a pair of overtime games. These 4 games were all decided by a touchdown or less. On the AFC side of things in that time span, the games have had slightly larger deficits but were no means blow outs.
AFC Championship
Baltimore +7 at New England - Fresh off of its first playoff win since the 2008 AFC title game, New England enters the playoffs on a 9 game win streak. Tom Brady has been his usual self in tearing apart opposing defenses. His 6 touchdown passes last week made quite the statement against the NFL's most polarizing player/team in the Denver Tebows. Meanwhile, on Baltimore's side of things, much of the talk this week has been about internal critiques of their QB Joe Flacco by future Canton member Ed Reed. While I think much of this talk leading up to games is garbage, no need for this small distraction.
I think this will be lower-scoring than what New England will be accustomed to, but they will still prevail. Baltimore covers, New England wins a tight one 24-20.
NFC Championship
NYG +2.5 at San Fran - When New England wraps up their game, much of the post-game talk on CBS and pre-game talk on Fox will be, "Is there going to be a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl?" My answer, if predictions have anything to say about them, is No.
If you've been watching or reading anything ESPN-related, you'd think the Giants would be the favorites. Not sure how much of this has to do with a well-perceived East-Coast bias that many people complain about, but it is quite noticeable how much the Giants are being talked up despite having lost to the Niners earlier this year and their inconsistency/lapses during the season - which saw them beat some of the NFL's best as road warriors (Patriots, Packers) while losing to inferior opponents like the Redskins (twice) & Seahawks.
I took a look at some highly public sites (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox, Covers...to name a few) & one local prediction from each town's newspaper area and compiled 38 different analyst's picks for the NFC Championship game. A whopping 27 of 38 picked the Giants to win.
It's weird that a 14-3 team who just ended a 9-game winning streak of a well-regarded foe can feel like an underdog, but here the Niners are....again. I have no problem with this perception from the public that the Giants will come out victorious.
In fact, recent history shows that one of the road teams should win - 9 of this century's 12 Super Bowls have featured at least one team who won on the road in the Conference Championship weekend. If a road team is going to win this weekend, chances are it will be the Giants.
I'll go against this trend and say that the Niners win a battle that will be highly dictated on the play of their special teams. The Pro Bowl duo of Akers & Andy Lee will provide the Niners with the points/field position that they will need, as San Fran will ride to its sixth Super Bowl appearance.
Niners win 23-17 and advance to Indianapolis.
As crazy as it sounds, I may have a chance to go to Indy for the game (my ultimate Sports Bucket List item) - I'll get into that later. I'll really only consider it if the Niners win.
Enjoy the games everyone!
As my fellow Conference Championship watchers Nick Pazoles and Chris Williams have both said as well, this weekend is our favorite weekend of sports because it usually has two very competitive games featuring high quality teams. This stands to reason that you have to be really good to make it this far, but the NFL always seems to find itself locked into tight battles come their version of the Final Four.
In the last 4 years, the NFC Championship has featured competitive games in all 4 tilts, including a pair of overtime games. These 4 games were all decided by a touchdown or less. On the AFC side of things in that time span, the games have had slightly larger deficits but were no means blow outs.
AFC Championship
Baltimore +7 at New England - Fresh off of its first playoff win since the 2008 AFC title game, New England enters the playoffs on a 9 game win streak. Tom Brady has been his usual self in tearing apart opposing defenses. His 6 touchdown passes last week made quite the statement against the NFL's most polarizing player/team in the Denver Tebows. Meanwhile, on Baltimore's side of things, much of the talk this week has been about internal critiques of their QB Joe Flacco by future Canton member Ed Reed. While I think much of this talk leading up to games is garbage, no need for this small distraction.
I think this will be lower-scoring than what New England will be accustomed to, but they will still prevail. Baltimore covers, New England wins a tight one 24-20.
NFC Championship
NYG +2.5 at San Fran - When New England wraps up their game, much of the post-game talk on CBS and pre-game talk on Fox will be, "Is there going to be a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl?" My answer, if predictions have anything to say about them, is No.
If you've been watching or reading anything ESPN-related, you'd think the Giants would be the favorites. Not sure how much of this has to do with a well-perceived East-Coast bias that many people complain about, but it is quite noticeable how much the Giants are being talked up despite having lost to the Niners earlier this year and their inconsistency/lapses during the season - which saw them beat some of the NFL's best as road warriors (Patriots, Packers) while losing to inferior opponents like the Redskins (twice) & Seahawks.
I took a look at some highly public sites (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox, Covers...to name a few) & one local prediction from each town's newspaper area and compiled 38 different analyst's picks for the NFC Championship game. A whopping 27 of 38 picked the Giants to win.
It's weird that a 14-3 team who just ended a 9-game winning streak of a well-regarded foe can feel like an underdog, but here the Niners are....again. I have no problem with this perception from the public that the Giants will come out victorious.
In fact, recent history shows that one of the road teams should win - 9 of this century's 12 Super Bowls have featured at least one team who won on the road in the Conference Championship weekend. If a road team is going to win this weekend, chances are it will be the Giants.
I'll go against this trend and say that the Niners win a battle that will be highly dictated on the play of their special teams. The Pro Bowl duo of Akers & Andy Lee will provide the Niners with the points/field position that they will need, as San Fran will ride to its sixth Super Bowl appearance.
Niners win 23-17 and advance to Indianapolis.
As crazy as it sounds, I may have a chance to go to Indy for the game (my ultimate Sports Bucket List item) - I'll get into that later. I'll really only consider it if the Niners win.
Enjoy the games everyone!
1/16/2012
The Game of My Life
Oh when the Saints....go marching out.....
In the same endzone Terrell Owens caught The Catch II about 13 years ago, Vernon Davis secured an Alex Smith touchdown pass with 9 seconds left that brought Candlestick Park off its hinges in Saturday's 36-32 win over the Saints. Coupled with the Packers loss yesterday, the Niners get a chance to create another playoff miracle at home.
The Niners' last three playoff games at home have produced Instant Classics:
Niners 36, Saints 32 (1/14/2012) - Any football fan who watched this one got treated to the game of the week (possibly the year). Despite Drew Brees' 400 million passing yards, our own QB (which I was reluctant to call him to start the year to say the least) created his own page in 49ers playoff miracles. I'm not quite sure how I can ever go to a better game than this in my lifetime - and this is not hyperbole talking.
Here's the best catch I've ever seen made in my life. I will get teary-eyed watching on highlight shows for the next decades to come: Vernon Davis catch
Oh when the Saints go marching out...
Niners 39, Giants 38 (1/5/2003) - I remember watching this game in the basement with some of my friends. When the score reached 38-14 in the third quarter, I was having my doubts. But a spirited comeback led by Jeff Garcia (331 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) helped give the Niners one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history (next to the Frank Reich/Buffalo Bills comeback). The game ended with a botched field goal snap leading to a duck of a pass that seemed to be airborne for several minutes. I panicked seeing a flag down by the area where a Giants player was pushed down, but the penalty was called on the Giants.
The next week, we lost to the eventual SB champion Buccaneers.
Niners 30, Packers 27 (1/3/1999) - This is when The Catch II happened, but we got lucky on that last drive when a Jerry Rice catch wasn't ruled a fumble on the field. Still, the game, like the two mentioned above, featured a 4th quarter comeback. Out of the three, it also featured the best QB matchup in Favre vs. Young.
Like Saturday's game, it had the opponent score a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. Also eerily similar (as mentioned before) was the spot of the field that the Niners played hauled in the winning score, with similar jarring hits that the receivers (1999 - TO, 2012 - Vernon Davis) absorbed while holding onto the ball. The comeback against the Giants featured a touchdown with a minute left as well - I don't know how we keep getting in these close home playoff games spread apart, but we do. While the Saints game, we didn't need to score a TD with less than 10 seconds left, in these other games we did.
Here's TO's catch...another chill-inducer: TO catch
Oh how would I love to be in that stadium, when the Saints go marching out!
Internal debate resides within me on whether I will go to this next game. If I do go, I'm likely staring at buying a solo ticket since most of my friends cannot afford this expenditure, the g/f is going to Puerto Rico this week, and I doubt my friend Matt will want to go again. I'd also be looking for a way to make this a Sunday morning flight, cab it right to stadium and then possibly come back the same night.
Realistically, I'll be watching it with loyal B-Bo Knows readers Chris Williams and Nick Pazoles. I'm giving myself a Tuesday night deadline on buying these tickets. I need a break from San Fran to assess it rationally and financially.
Now finally....time to get some sleep. A work week awaits me. I'm sure I'll have a Niners preview cooked up later in the week.
Where ever I watch Sunday's game against the Giants, I will wear my Niner heart on my sleeve, rooting on my team that keeps adding to its playoff lore and hopefully has a few more victories left in the tank.
In the same endzone Terrell Owens caught The Catch II about 13 years ago, Vernon Davis secured an Alex Smith touchdown pass with 9 seconds left that brought Candlestick Park off its hinges in Saturday's 36-32 win over the Saints. Coupled with the Packers loss yesterday, the Niners get a chance to create another playoff miracle at home.
The Niners' last three playoff games at home have produced Instant Classics:
Niners 36, Saints 32 (1/14/2012) - Any football fan who watched this one got treated to the game of the week (possibly the year). Despite Drew Brees' 400 million passing yards, our own QB (which I was reluctant to call him to start the year to say the least) created his own page in 49ers playoff miracles. I'm not quite sure how I can ever go to a better game than this in my lifetime - and this is not hyperbole talking.
Here's the best catch I've ever seen made in my life. I will get teary-eyed watching on highlight shows for the next decades to come: Vernon Davis catch
Oh when the Saints go marching out...
Niners 39, Giants 38 (1/5/2003) - I remember watching this game in the basement with some of my friends. When the score reached 38-14 in the third quarter, I was having my doubts. But a spirited comeback led by Jeff Garcia (331 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) helped give the Niners one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history (next to the Frank Reich/Buffalo Bills comeback). The game ended with a botched field goal snap leading to a duck of a pass that seemed to be airborne for several minutes. I panicked seeing a flag down by the area where a Giants player was pushed down, but the penalty was called on the Giants.
The next week, we lost to the eventual SB champion Buccaneers.
Niners 30, Packers 27 (1/3/1999) - This is when The Catch II happened, but we got lucky on that last drive when a Jerry Rice catch wasn't ruled a fumble on the field. Still, the game, like the two mentioned above, featured a 4th quarter comeback. Out of the three, it also featured the best QB matchup in Favre vs. Young.
Like Saturday's game, it had the opponent score a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. Also eerily similar (as mentioned before) was the spot of the field that the Niners played hauled in the winning score, with similar jarring hits that the receivers (1999 - TO, 2012 - Vernon Davis) absorbed while holding onto the ball. The comeback against the Giants featured a touchdown with a minute left as well - I don't know how we keep getting in these close home playoff games spread apart, but we do. While the Saints game, we didn't need to score a TD with less than 10 seconds left, in these other games we did.
Here's TO's catch...another chill-inducer: TO catch
Oh how would I love to be in that stadium, when the Saints go marching out!
Internal debate resides within me on whether I will go to this next game. If I do go, I'm likely staring at buying a solo ticket since most of my friends cannot afford this expenditure, the g/f is going to Puerto Rico this week, and I doubt my friend Matt will want to go again. I'd also be looking for a way to make this a Sunday morning flight, cab it right to stadium and then possibly come back the same night.
Realistically, I'll be watching it with loyal B-Bo Knows readers Chris Williams and Nick Pazoles. I'm giving myself a Tuesday night deadline on buying these tickets. I need a break from San Fran to assess it rationally and financially.
Now finally....time to get some sleep. A work week awaits me. I'm sure I'll have a Niners preview cooked up later in the week.
Where ever I watch Sunday's game against the Giants, I will wear my Niner heart on my sleeve, rooting on my team that keeps adding to its playoff lore and hopefully has a few more victories left in the tank.
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