#BolekBestBets - NFL Week 2/NCAA Week 3

Week 2 NFL Theme - Redemption Song


Yikes!

Looking to sing the Redemption Song this week after a bad start to my NFL gambling  in Week 1

I hope you didn't follow my bets from the blog last week, at least the NFL ones. I went 3-1 on the NCAA picks, but my overall NFL record was a perfect mess.

On the Sunday bets, I recorded an 0-6 record. I didn't end up betting the Colts (which was obviously a good thing).

Here's a rundown of my bets from Sunday and how bad they lost by the spread:

KC Moneyline (lost to Atlanta 40-24) -16
Ten +5 (lost to New England 34-13) -16
NO -8 (lost to Washington 40-32) - 16
GB -6 (lost to San Fran 30-22) - 14
Car/TB over 45.5 (26 combined points) - 19.5
Pitt/Den under 45 (50 combined points) - 5

If you average those out, I lost my bets by over two touchdowns PER BET. I admit it was easier to stomach being completely wrong on most of these than to squeak out losses on the games.

Luckily, MNF I was up a little bit, going 3-2 with my bets (won first half Cin/Balt over, SD/Oak under, SD in-game next-score; lost Cin +7, in-game Cin/Balt under).

The good thing is - I remain confident and am not just firing bets out there at random. No steam bets, no large wagers to chase losses, none of that shit. Too many times, I used to do that, only to dig myself a bigger hole.

Let's look at next week, shall we?

Fool's Gold - Week 2

All right, all right, all right!

Last week's fool's gold highlighted (or in retrospect, lowlighted) Tennessee Titans as having a good shot of covering/beating the Patriots, who much of the public was craving to bet. That, of course, is the theme of Fool's Gold. This is meant to highlight a particular game that the average Joe Public bettor thinks is "just too good of a line to pass up", only to realize he was wrong in his assessment.

Looks like my foolish ass was wrong in Week 1, but I look to change that in Week 2. There are several good candidates this week. I considered Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston; Seattle +3.5 vs. Dallas; and St Louis +3.5 vs. Washington, but this week, I want to highlight the ultimate Fool's Gold pick, a rare road underdog that has the love of the general public.

Baltimore enters Week 2 as a popular pick with Vegas spotting them 2 points against the Philadelphia Eagles, who struggled to beat a Cleveland Browns team considered by many to be one of the worst teams in the league. On paper, you're thinking, "What the hell? The Ravens are +2 after their impressive win on Monday Night Football versus a team who barely beat the Browns?"

Several reasons to reconsider your Ravens pick

1. Isolated Game Perception. The Ravens played under the lights of Monday Night Football, which definitely helps shape people's perspective than your average Sunday early game. This goes for any isolated game, which is the only game in town - thus, the average person is likely to consume that game than any particular game on Sunday before the NBC game. What you saw was the Ravens look great, and likely, all you saw of the Eagles game (unless you watched it on DirecTV) was the final score and the stats, which clearly disappointed you since you own a couple Eagles in fantasy football.
2. Letdown Game. Similar theory to 1, except this includes the fact that last week, besides being Week 1 on MNF, was that it is a division game. I expect there to be a letdown playing an out-of-division foe  (like the Ravens experienced in Week 2 last year after destroying the Steelers in Week 1).
3. The Eagles are good. The Eagles aren't favorites for no reason. The Eagles were still in division contention last year despite their pitiful 4-8 start. Entering this year, they were considered the second or third best team in the NFC based on chance to make it to the Super Bowl. They got great talent at all of the skill positions. Vick is probably over-rated (not an elite QB), but he's still better than most QBs overall. They also have a pretty good defense. I attribute the offense's struggles in Week 1 more to the imbalance of the offense (2:1 pass/run ratio, despite having one of the most talented RBs in the league). I expect McCoy to get more carries this week, which should open up the pass game a little.
4. Short Week for Ravens. Granted, this is probably one of the weaker reasons for backing the Eagles, but it could come into play.

Fool's Gold Pick: Philly -2 over Baltimore

Fool's Gold YTD: 0-1

Elimination Pool Pick: I forgot to add this feature last week. Week 1, I squeaked out a Detroit Lions win over the Rams. Week 2, I'm going with the lay-up pick: New England

Elimination Pool Pick(s) to Avoid: I believe that Dallas & Houston will be challenged this week.

Other NFL Week 2 Picks

Jax +7 vs Houston - Gabbert has a new "I may actually not suck" aura about him now. MJD should be sharper. I have a great gut feel for this one. May even take Jax money line.

Seattle +3.5 vs Dallas - Everyone is hammering the Cowboys after their impressive win in the league opener in Week 1 (possible isolated game perception by the public). Seattle is an improved team this year, plus their stadium, known for the 12th man for their loud crowd noise, is a hard place to place.

StL +3.5 vs. Wash - Who got the most coverage this past week in the NFL? RGIII. Who currently has one of the highest percentage of bets placed for this week? Washington. St. Louis had Detroit, a playoff team, on the ropes in their road opener. The Rams are an improved team (QB is healthy, experienced coach, good 2012 draft). I expect the public to be way wrong on this one.

Considering...Denver +3 at Atlanta; New Orleans/Carolina Over; KC +3 at Buffalo

Week 1: (4-9, -5.215 units)

NFL YTD: (5-11, -6.315 units) - includes GB/Chi bets

(Check my Twitter for my latest picks) @BrianBolek

NCAA Week 3 picks

Ohio State -16.5 over Cal - Urban Meyer is a covering monster in his coaching career for nonconference games (35-8 record - 81%). Plus, this is a really early game for Cal (9am Pacific time). I expect OSU to roll by 3+ scores. Already bet this (1.07 to win 1 unit)

Northwestern -3.5 over BC - Both teams are closing their non-conference schedules out. Both are coming off of impressive wins. I like NU's wins better (at Syracuse, who looked good against top-ranked USC, vs Vandy, who looked good against highly ranked South Carolina) compared to BC's only win last week. I'm gonna wait on this game and see if it goes down to -3 (always want to get the best line if possible). If not, I'll likely take it at -3.5 or 4.
UL-Monroe +16.5 over Auburn - Some people might be afraid that UL-Monroe was a fluke and could have a letdown here, but if you look at the stat sheet, they just flat out beat Arkansas everywhere (yards 550-377, first downs 30-21, almost a 2/1 possession ratio). I haven't seen Auburn play this year, but everything I've read/heard about Auburn is that they're just not that good this year. Auburn will likely win, but I think it will be a struggle.

Might add a few more NCAA games - haven't looked too closely at the schedule yet. I'll be at a family function tomorrow, so I may not bet too many games tomorrow outside of those.

Week 2: (3-1, +2.93 units)

NCAA YTD: (11-5, +6.035 units)

Football combined: (16-16, -0.28 units)

Enjoy the football weekend everyone.

Final Four, NFL-Style

My favorite Sunday of the sports year is in sight, with the day becoming even more special because of the 49ers first appearance in the NFC Championship since 1998, when they lost to the Packers 23-10.

As my fellow Conference Championship watchers Nick Pazoles and Chris Williams have both said as well, this weekend is our favorite weekend of sports because it usually has two very competitive games featuring high quality teams. This stands to reason that you have to be really good to make it this far, but the NFL always seems to find itself locked into tight battles come their version of the Final Four.

In the last 4 years, the NFC Championship has featured competitive games in all 4 tilts, including a pair of overtime games. These 4 games were all decided by a touchdown or less. On the AFC side of things in that time span, the games have had slightly larger deficits but were no means blow outs.

AFC Championship

Baltimore +7 at New England - Fresh off of its first playoff win since the 2008 AFC title game, New England enters the playoffs on a 9 game win streak. Tom Brady has been his usual self in tearing apart opposing defenses. His 6 touchdown passes last week made quite the statement against the NFL's most polarizing player/team in the Denver Tebows. Meanwhile, on Baltimore's side of things, much of the talk this week has been about internal critiques of their QB Joe Flacco by future Canton member Ed Reed. While I think much of this talk leading up to games is garbage, no need for this small distraction.

I think this will be lower-scoring than what New England will be accustomed to, but they will still prevail. Baltimore covers, New England wins a tight one 24-20.

NFC Championship

NYG +2.5 at San Fran - When New England wraps up their game, much of the post-game talk on CBS and pre-game talk on Fox will be, "Is there going to be a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl?" My answer, if predictions have anything to say about them, is No.

If you've been watching or reading anything ESPN-related, you'd think the Giants would be the favorites. Not sure how much of this has to do with a well-perceived East-Coast bias that many people complain about, but it is quite noticeable how much the Giants are being talked up despite having lost to the Niners earlier this year and their inconsistency/lapses during the season - which saw them beat some of the NFL's best as road warriors (Patriots, Packers) while losing to inferior opponents like the Redskins (twice) & Seahawks.

I took a look at some highly public sites (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox, Covers...to name a few) & one local prediction from each town's newspaper area and compiled 38 different analyst's picks for the NFC Championship game. A whopping 27 of 38 picked the Giants to win.

It's weird that a 14-3 team who just ended a 9-game winning streak of a well-regarded foe can feel like an underdog, but here the Niners are....again. I have no problem with this perception from the public that the Giants will come out victorious.

In fact, recent history shows that one of the road teams should win - 9 of this century's 12 Super Bowls have featured at least one team who won on the road in the Conference Championship weekend. If a road team is going to win this weekend, chances are it will be the Giants.

I'll go against this trend and say that the Niners win a battle that will be highly dictated on the play of their special teams. The Pro Bowl duo of Akers & Andy Lee will provide the Niners with the points/field position that they will need, as San Fran will ride to its sixth Super Bowl appearance.

Niners win 23-17 and advance to Indianapolis.

As crazy as it sounds, I may have a chance to go to Indy for the game (my ultimate Sports Bucket List item) - I'll get into that later. I'll really only consider it if the Niners win.

Enjoy the games everyone!

Obligatory 2012 Playoff Predictions & Look Back

As an occasional blogger of sporting items, I'm required by law to give my Super Bowl predictions.

Before I do that, I'm looking back on my pre-season predictions, which I picked Green Bay over San Diego (half of that prediction makes me hurl - and no Bears fans, it's not the GB part). At least my NFC Championship of GB vs NO looks reasonable.

Not counting the 3 teams that I said would get the exact win total set forth by Vegas, I went 15-14 in predicting over/unders of win totals (based on win projections in early August). My best division was the AFC East, as I correctly projected the division order & 2 of the teams' win totals on the dot (NE & Buf). Worst division, convienently enough, was the NFC West, in which I would have been on the wrong side of all 4 totals.

I predicted 4 of the 8 division winners: GB, NO, Hou & NE.
Whiffed bad on some of the others: Phil, StL, Pitt (not so bad), SD

I got 8 of the 12 playoff participants right, going wrong on guessing Phil, StL, SD & NYJ.

Overall, I give myself a B- on predictions. Usually, I don't get that many playoff teams right, and my Super Bowl winner is still alive.


On to the 2012 Predictions (Redux)

I already gave my first-round predictions:

Pitt over Den (Pitt covers -8), NO over Det (Det covers +11), Hou over Cin (Hou covers -4), NYG over Atl (NYG covers -3)

From there, that'd lead to the following matchups (and predicted point spread) in Divisional Round:

Pitt +5 at NE - I give NE the win and cover - Pitt may be too banged up to survive this year beyond Denver.
Hou +8.5 at Balt - Baltimore smells blood here. They grab the 2 score win and cover.
NO -3.5 at SF - I don't want to get my hopes up and say SF wins, I say they cover but don't win. NO by 3.
NYG +9.5 at GB - Things never go exactly like they should in the divisional round - I say NYG pulls out the upset straight up at Lambeau, a la 2008. NYG's pass rush will give Rodgers fits.

Conference championship

NYG +9.5 at NO - NO would loooooove to have another home game after this weekend, and if my predictions come true, they'll get another. Brees has hit the ground running in the last half of the year since the Rams loss, winning their last 8 games by a 35-18 margin, averaging 490 yards/game while allowing 390/game in that span (a whopping 100 yards per game. In this streak includes a late Novermber beatdown of NYG. I think NYG's luck will end here - NO goes to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 years and wins by 14.

Balt +3 at NE - As everyone who watches football this year knows, NE has a defense that would make the Swiss military look tough. I think Baltimore will be able to expose this weakness: Rice goes off for a 200 yards combined day, and their defense will do enough to thwart NE's pass offense. Still feels weird backing Balt (Flacco) over NE (Brady), but here we are. Welcome to 2012!

Super Bowl

Balt (+4) vs NO - Classic matchup between strong offense vs elite defense (moreso than Balt/NE - I consider NO more well-rounded and talented) in the final game. The initial edge has to go to the Saints, seeing as though the game is in a dome and they have been playing games like they're collecting medals at a track meet. However, on the game's biggest stage, I say defense wins out and we see John Harbaugh hoisting the Lombardi, with constant obligatory viewings of his bitter brother Jim watching from a press box.

Your 2012 Super Bowl Champions: the Baltimore Ravens!

Feel free to offer your own predictions. I'll probably whiff on many of these (per usual), and I hope I do. I'd love SF to win to collect on my $50 Super Bowl bet from a few weeks ago (to win $750), oh yeah, and cuz I'm a fan of them....(yeah, that reason as well).

Enjoy the playoffs everyone.