We're Talkin' Baseball: 2012 MLB Preview

Updated 3-3-12

As far as offseasons go for baseball, this one had a little bit of everything.

The top two free agents in MLB move out of the NL Central much to the delight of the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Astros. Albert "El Hombre" Pujols signs a rich deal with the Angels, while Prince Fielder gets a king's salary from a Detroit Tiger squad that is looking to take the next step in the AL.

A current MVP was revealed to have a suspicious drug test back in December. Luckily for the Brewers, Ryan Braun will not have to face a 50-game suspension (at this current time anyways) after a panel overturned the tests on the grounds that the samples were mishandled.

Josh Hamilton continues to face his inner demons and may have cost himself a shot at a big contract after his drinking incident earlier this month.

Oh, and the Chicago side of things - each squad loses a pitcher to the Marlins. On the Sox end, most of us actually wanted our hurler (Buehrle) to stay in the city limits, but the length of contract in addition to playing for Ozzie Guillen again was enough to wisk him away from the South Side. Meanwhile, everyone knew Big Z would be gone. As a 4th or 5th starter on a loaded Marlins staff, Zambrano could give the Marlins the necessary pitching depth to compete with the Phillies for the NL East crown.

Aside from those moves, not much can be said about Chicago baseball teams' chances in 2012. Given his track record in Boston, Theo Epstein gives the Cubs a great chance to rebuild their minor league system. While they are a longshot to make the playoffs this year, I'd say that Cubs fans are probably feeling a little more optimistic about their future than the Sox, and that has everything to do with Epstein.

The White Sox were in a clear rebuilding mode this offseason, shipping away Quentin & last year's closer Sergio Santos while letting Buehrle sign with Miami. Chris Sale is the unknown as he enters his first year in the starting rotation, which features John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Phil Humber.

My friend Nick highlighted in his White Sox preview a few weeks back that the South Siders have a wide range of possibilities depending on how things fall into place. You could probably say that about any team, but I see his point. You have to figure Adam Dunn will get things somewhat figured out, but will it be his standard .250/40/100 remains to be seen. I believe Rios' one good season a couple years back was the exception in what has been a lackluster career given his hype as a prospect.

I don't know how much longer Konerko can keep these numbers up as he continues to get up there in age. The starting staff seems to be their best chance of success, with Sale being the X-factor. We already know Peavy will only start 20-25 games - he can be penciled in for a couple DL stints at random points in the year.

Vegas has the White Sox win total at about 74, which I believe they will go OVER. I see a 77-78 win season in the Sox future. Likely 3rd or 4th place finish.

Sorry, getting ahead of myself. Without further ado, here's my predictions for the MLB season.

All over/under victory totals are from 5dimes.com as of 3/3/12.

AL East - Favorites: Yankees; Other contenders: Red Sox, Rays. Thoughts: After entering 2011 the favorites following some offseason moves, the Red Sox find themselves projected behind the Yankees in the division entering this year. New York's big move in getting stealing Michael Pineda from the Mariners solidifies their staff. They will have enough offense to hold off the other squads. I say Rays take second and win the American League Wild Card.

AL East	O/U
NYY	93	Over	94-68
TB	86.5	Over	91-71
Bos	89.5	Under	87-75
Tor	80.5	Over	82-80
Balt	69.5	Under	65-97

Pick: Yankees (w/ Rays winning Wild Card) - rest of division in order (Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles)

AL Central - Favorites: Tigers; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: Out of the six divisions in MLB, this division has (by far) the biggest gap between first and second place (at least on paper). The Indians have a mid 80s win projection and are expected to finish 2nd behind the Tigers, with the Royals around 80 wins and the Sox behind them. I still think there's questions with the Tigers' pitching staff behind Verlander, but their stellar offense should be enough to win the division.

I think the Royals are heading in the right direction and would be my pick to be the surprise team of the AL this year. Not enough to take the division yet, but perhaps in 2013.

AL Central	O/U
Det	92.5	Over	94-68
KC	80.5	Over	83-79
Cle	78.5	Over	81-81
Sox	74.5	Over	78-84
Min	73.5	Under	69-93

Pick: Tigers - rest of division in order (Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins)

AL West - Co-Favorites: Rangers & Angels; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: The Angels made the biggest splashes by picking up Big Al and CJ Wilson in less than a 12 hour span.  Many are projecting them to overtake the Rangers for the division crown, but I still have my money on the Rangers. The Angels could take the Wild Card, but I'm a big fan of the Rays and what Joe Maddon has done in what was once a sesspool of a franchise and now is a perennial contender despite their small payroll.

AL West	O/U
Tex	91	Over	92-70
LAA	92.5	Under	90-72
Oak	71.5	Over	74-88
Sea	72	Under	67-95

Pick: Rangers - (w/ Angels winning Wild Card*) - rest of division in order (A's, Mariners)

*Pick Added w/ New Wild Card Format announced at end of February

Looks like I have the same AL playoffs as last year. Not what I set out to do, but that's how I see it.

On to the NL...

NL East - Favorites: Phillies; Other contenders: Nationals, Marlins, Braves. Thoughts: This division takes the crown as the most competitive division in baseball, edging out its AL directional counterpart. I like most of the moves that the Marlins made, and with Josh Johnson back in the rotation to join Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Zambrano, the Marlins have formed one of the better rotations in baseball. Not to mention they signed Reyes (who should still have a few good years in him) and have a nucleus of Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez, whose only worry is how he will adjust to moving to a new position.

Maybe I'm drinking the Nationals' Kool-Aid, but I have them as my NL breakout team. They also have a solid staff, when, if healthy, stacks up well to the Marlins. Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson are a solid 4 starters. I have enough faith in them to make them one of my new "Baseball Hats of 2012" in my lifelong goal of collecting a hat from every MLB franchise.

I don't know why, but I'm not sold on the Phillies. Ryan Howard, who is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in 2011 postseason, saw most of his key #s dipping in the past 3 years without the injury. Halladay and Lee will keep the Phillies in contention, but I see the Phillies being the 2012 version of the Red Sox - not so much collapse but failing to make playoffs despite heavy odds of making it*.

NL East	O/U
Mia	84.5	Over	92-70
Wash	83.5	Over	89-73
Phil	93.5	Under	88-74
Atl	86.5	Under	81-81
NYM	71.5	Over	72-90

Pick: Marlins (w/ Nationals & Phillies* winning the Wild Card). Rest of division in order (Braves, Mets) *Pick Added w/ new Wild Card format just announced

NL Central - Favorites: no clear favorite; Other contenders: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers. Thoughts: This division is the most wide open based on its lack of a clear favorite. Many expect the Cardinals to take a step back w/ the loss of Pujols and LaRussa, but they always seem to find a way to contend - also, Wainwright will be back. Likewise, Fielder's absence will be hard for the Brewers to fill, but they still have a solid pitching staff.

NL Central	O/U
StL	84	Over	87-75
Mil	84.5	Over	86-76
Cin	86.5	Under	80-82
Cubs	74.5	Under	72-90
Pitt	73.5	Under	69-93
Hou	64	Over	66-96

Pick: Cardinals - rest of division in order (Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros)

NL West - Favorites: Giants/D-Backs; Other contenders: Rockies, Dodgers. Thoughts: I don't have a good read on this division. No one saw the D-Backs' run coming last year - I see a slight regression to slightly above a .500 record. With Posey coming back and a solid pitching staff, I like the Giants (I'm a sucker for a good pitching rotation). I see them edging out the Dodgers, who have Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw & MVP candidate Matt Kemp leading them to a potential division crown that has eluded the franchise as of late.

NL West	O/U
SF	87.5	Over	89-73
LAD	81.5	Over	84-78
Ariz	86.5	Under	82-80
Colo	81	Under	78-84
SD	73.5	Under	68-94

Pick: Giants - rest of division in order (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres)


AL Championship: Yankees over Tigers
NL Championship: Marlins over Giants

World Series: Marlins over Yankees (but not because the NL gets home field with their All-Star victory). The Marlins are due for one of their random World Series runs and have a squad that can compete for one.

Random Individual Predictions (aka - R.I.P.):

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Det)...Sleeper: Nelson Cruz (Tex)
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Fla)...Sleeper: Buster Posey (SF)
AL Cy Young: David Price (TB)...Sleeper: Michael Pineda (NYY)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Phil)...Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
AL HR Leader: Jose Cabrera (Tor)...Sleeper: Adam Dunn (CHW)
NL HR Leader: Mike Stanton (Fla)...Sleeper: Jay Bruce (Cin)

With this being said, if you can find a way to fade all of these picks, be my guest. Feel free to offer up your own predictions.

Bolek. Out.

We're Talking Baseball: Excitement, Disrespect & Playoff Predictions

Random baseball thoughts:

Blowing the Load

If baseball's amazing action yesterday were analogized in sexual terms, one might say that MLB blew it all out on the foreplay part.

What a kickoff to the baseball playoffs. It was the most excited I've been watching baseball since 2005. Unfortunately, I don't see there being an opportunity to go up from here.

Sure, there will be moments that stick out. Perhaps another walk-off home run to decide a game or a great catch at the wall that prevents a bases-clearing double in the late innings could capture our attentions briefly.

To get that kind of excitement from many different games at once, however, will be nearly impossible to match.

Tampa Bay Rons

Putting baseball in a political spectrum, Tampa Bay reminds me much of Ron Paul. All of the semantics surrounding their entry into the playoffs is all about the Red Sox collapse, not Tampa Bay's strong push to make it to this point. This is much like anytime Dr. Paul is mentioned (or more appropriately, not mentioned) in an article addressing percentages in the polls.

The Cardinals get more credit for their comeback to make the playoffs than the Rays do - which has to do with the news market having an interest in the Cardinals (particularly their history) and very little interest in a team lucky to draw 15,000 fans to a game. Also, it helps when the team that collapsed is based in the Northeast, where much of the mainstream media are based - and of course, another team that is rich in history throughout the history of baseball.

If the Rays win the World Series, Sportscenter may promote it as "Phillies Collapse" rather than promoting the victors. I could see the same for Ron Paul if he were lucky enough to get put on the Republican ticket - "Obama Falters in Re-Election Bid".

Rooting Interest

Speaking of the Rays, I definitely have a financial stake in rooting for them to win it all. On Tuesday when they were tied with the Red Sox, my site had the Rays' odds of winning the WS at 18/1, so I threw 20 on it.

In the other AL series, I am hoping that the Tigers can pull it out. My last live bet on BookMaker is a $10 bet to win the World Series at 40/1.

The NL team with the best odds (best being relative on value) on 5dimes is the Brewers, coming in at 8/1. I am debating a small bet on them as well.

What's Your Fantasy?

Baseball isn't as sexy of a sport for me to play in the fantasy sports realm of life. This was my first year of the past 4 where I didn't play a money league.

However, I still do take some pride in my teams, and I'll take any championship that I can. Even if it means when I didn't really win it, per se. I finished a league with the top seed and had my pitching carry me to a 6-6 tie. However, since I held the top seed and that's the first tiebreaker, I took down the crown. My other leagues lent themselves to average finishes (6 of 12 and 7 of 10), so I really wanted this one bad.

Analyzing My Preseason Picks/Making New Ones

Back in March, I wrote a piece on my predictions for the MLB season, foolishly selecting the White Sox losing to the Phillies in the Fall Classic. While I was way off on half of that, I think the second of that is looking pretty strong entering October.

Division predictions that went well: Brewers and Rangers were my only correct predictions.
Division predictions that faded during the second half: The Giants could never muster any offense to support their strong staff and the Red Sox did their best to mirror the beginning and end of their season.
Division predictions that never had a chance: The Twins (last place finish) and Braves (distant second place) were easily bested.
Wild cards: White Sox (oooooops) and Phillies (tried being cute and having them win the World Series after winning the wild card).

New prediction for the World Series (part 3): Phillies over Rays
My first prediction bombed. My midseason prediction (Phils over Tigers) could very well happen. I just like the Rays' pitching over the other teams left in the AL.

Even though I'd rather have one of my bets come in, I don't see Philly's staff being bested. Pitching carries teams in the postseason.

NFL/College blog to come tomorrow.

Have a good evening everyone.