Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

9/28/2013

MLB Predictions: A Look Back at the Bad (and some Good) Predictions from Spring Training

A Look Back at My 2013 Predictions

I'm always one to make sure I hold myself accountable for predictions - both good and bad - when it comes to offering them before a season starts. Like many of you, I tend to back up my opinion with cash money.

Maybe like many of you (perhaps some of you), I struggled throughout the 2013 season. I meant to keep accurate records of everything, but after a while of just sucking too much, too hard (the stuff they won't show on Cinemax), I just stopped keeping track of my daily progress.

One thing I can easily keep track of are the futures bets that I made (team wins, division winners, World Series champ bets). And much like my daily bets, success was hard to find. I made the following bets before and during the season:

Win Props
  • Tampa Bay Over 86 (135 to win 100) - WIN
  • Cleveland Over 77.5 (135 to win 100) - WIN
  • Toronto Under 89 (105 to win 100) - WIN
  • Houston Over 59.5 (100 to win 105) - LOSS
  • San Diego Over 74.5 (100 to win 115)- WIN
Division Props
  • Tampa to win AL East +255 (40 to win 108) - LOSS
  • Philly to win NL East +330 (40 to win 132) - LOSS
  • Cleveland to win AL Central +900 (15 to win 135) - LOSS
  • Cleveland to win AL Central (Made few weeks into season) +1450 (15 to win 217.50) - LOSS
  • San Diego to win NL West (Made in June) +3300 (15 to win 495) - LOSS
World Series Props
  • Tampa to win WS +1500 (30 to win 450) - PENDING
  • San Diego to win WS (bet made in June) +25000 (15 to win 3750) - LOSS 

Player Props
  • Jay Bruce Most HRs in MLB +1900 (25 to win 475) - LOSS
  • Yoenis Cespedes Most HRs in MLB +5000 (15 to win 750) - LOSS


As you can see, not much has gone right outside of my over/under bets for season wins (I went 4-1 there).

The link I introduced at the beginning highlights some of my thoughts before the season on things I know to be true about MLB. Going point-by-point:

1. Re: Spending big does not equal success. I was half right on the teams mentioned in this point. While the Dodgers' big spending eventually paid off in a big way, the Blue Jays never really got going this year. The big names signed and traded for have led to no improvement in the quality of the team (last year Toronto was 73-89; w/ two games left in 2013, they are 73-87).

2. Re: Due for some surprise teams. Again, I was half right here. I did predict Cleveland as a wild card team that would finish about 5-6 games behind Detroit (at the moment, 3 back, but obviously division is clinched). While not a wild card team just yet, I applaud myself for getting this pretty damn close at the very least. I missed on my other surprise team (San Diego), who looked like they may contend after having one of the best stretches in the MLB during June. However, once they realized they were San Diego (and once Los Angeles got their shit together), the wheels fell off. Thankfully, they rebounded enough in September to win me my futures bet on them. Pittsburgh is the ultimate surprise from the NL.

3. Re: 2-3 new division winners. As you saw above on the division bets, I didn't do a good job of predicting the new division winners. The only division I even got right was Detroit, which was the biggest chalk in baseball. There were actually four new division winners, none of which I got right (Boston, St. Louis, Atlanta, Los Angeles). 

4. Re: Tampa will surprise as usual. The jury is still out on this. We will see if they make one of the two wild card spots (tied w/ Cleveland and one ahead of Texas). With their solid pitching, I still believe they can win the World Series if they are able to extend their season into October.


Revised MLB Predictions (w/ 2 games left)

WC round
Pitt over Cincy; TB over Cle

Divisional Series Round
TB over Bos; Det over Oak
NL TBD: Whoever faces Atl over Atl; either LA over StL or StL over Pitt

League Championship Series: 
Det over TB; LA over StL or Pitt

World Series: Det over LA


Award Winners

AL MVP: Miggy
NL MVP: McCutchen
AL Cy: Scherzer
NL Cy: Kershaw (hey, I think I got one preseason pick right!)
AL Rookie of Year: Wil Myers (no true standouts in AL - Iglesias and Straily have a shot)
NL Rookie of Year:  Fernandez (Mia) (Puig had amazing start, but Fernandez dominated throughout entire season)

WS MVP: Victor Martinez

8/27/2013

NFL vs College Football: Which Brand of Football Do You Prefer?

In about 48 hours, the college football season kicks off with North Carolina and South Carolina butting heads on ESPN. A week and an hour later, the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens head to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos to start up the NFL slate of games that count.

Many of us watch both brands of football; some of us intently watch an equal amount of Saturday and Sunday football, while others have a true football love. The stories below reflect those who have true ties to one or the other.

The College Guys


Kalind

In discussing his love of college football, Kalind (you can find him on Twitter - @kalind_totals) reflects on a childhood rich with memories of Saturdays past spent watching college football with his dad.

"I have been watching college football for as long as my eyes could focus on a TV if you let my mother tell the story," Kalind said. "She says my father held me on Saturday afternoons while he watched."

His first college football memories come from watching the Florida Gators (his hometown rooting interest at the time) taking on Georgia in 1980. Watching the Gators lose on a late touchdown from Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott broke young Kalind's heart, but set in motion a lifelong love of the sport.

"The collegiate atmosphere is what stands out to me," he said. "The Swamp, Autzen Stadium, The Big House, The 12th Man, Death Valley. Gets no better."

He cites the evolution of offenses (from the wishbone to the current trend of the spread) and coach's constant pursuit of finding mismatches as other drawing points to his fascination with the college game over the pro version.

Due to his investing into the games, Kalind no longer has a particular rooting interest in any team but does consider the SEC his favorite conference to watch.

"I enjoy watching the SEC for the tradition in rivalries and the diverse approach to the game itself," he said. "Their ability to be a defensive minded conference yet have skilled enough offensive players to destroy opponents is what draws me to the conference. They have a complete balance of TEAM concept where neither side if the ball is solely responsible for winning games.

"The talent level is directly linked to the passion the South has for the sport from youth league up through college and the parents are just as dedicated and passionate as their sons who play the game."

Kalind's Saturdays are spent in his lab, notepad in hand with games he is investing in or planning on investing in, with remote control close by so he can enjoy the DirecTV package that he purchases every college football season to its fullest potential.

"The outside world doesn't matter much on Saturdays," he said. "I may come up from my lab for the occasional breather but for the most part this is a job I take seriously."

As far as surprise teams go for this season, he considers Boise State and Northwestern as teams who have a great shot at making some noise this season. However, he doesn't think Northwestern's schedule lends itself well to consistent defensive efforts, as Kalind believes they will be facing strong rushing attacks from the fifth week of the season onward.

And the championship game?

"BCS title game will be Oregon vs Georgia." he said. "The shoot out we have been waiting for has found itself in the Rose Bowl on Jan 6th with Oregon taking the last drive of the game to win and stop the dominance of the SEC to the tune of 41-40. This will be an explosion of two of the very best offensive teams college football has to offer and it will usher in what many college football fans have wanted for quite some time, a playoff system."

Nick

Nick doesn't subscribe to the DirecTV package like Kalind does, but he does take in a lot of games each Saturday (he sets up three televisions in his living room to watch as much live action as possible). The amount of games is definitely one of the draws for him when it comes to his love of college football.

"The volume of games is just so much higher," he said. "Without buying Sunday Ticket, the most NFL games a person could see at home in a given week is 5-6, but there are times where on a given Saturday there are that many games on TV at the same time. More games increases the chance that one of them will be awesome.

"College football moves faster, and it's more exciting. Because the skill level isn't as high, things can change so quickly and the volume of exciting/big plays is much higher."

Like Kalind, Nick appreciates the atmosphere that surrounds college football and its fans.

"The students represent a different kind of fan than what the NFL has," he said. "It's much cooler to see the student section going crazy than some 45 year old guy with his face painted. There's also the mascots, the cheerleaders and the bands. The fact that players can only be there for four years means that there is a freshness to things that you can't get in the NFL."

His earliest memories of college football stem from a few Big Ten teams making Rose Bowl runs (Wisconsin & Northwestern), but his true love of the sport (and of the University of Michigan football) started when he attended college in the early 2000s, even though his school didn't have a college team.

Nick's Saturdays in the Fall are full of TVs and games, dedicating himself to this setup from the moment games kick off at 11am CST till the late games end about a half day later.

When asked about who will surprise this season, Nick provided a conference who he thinks will sneak up on people.

"It's really hard in any sport, in the Internet age, to call things a surprise because everyone gets so much coverage and everyone has a "surprise" team," he said. "I think the Pac 12 is better than everyone gives it credit (even outside of Stanford and Oregon), so I think the "surprise" could be them being much better and deeper than anyone is looking at. UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Arizona St. all got votes but are outside of the top 25. Lots of talent on those teams."

In fact, he has a PAC-12 team in his championship game. Nick's title game features Alabama winning its third straight title over Stanford.

"If this was year one of the new playoff system, I would throw Georgia and Clemson in as well," Nick said. "Clemson has a history of shooting themselves in the foot which is why I won't pick them to make it outright, but they have a ton of talent."

The Pro Peeps


Brad


The youngest of the interviewees for this series, Brad's first memories of watching the NFL aren't much different than many of us born/raised in the 1980s.

"My earliest memory of watching the NFL is when I was a child, maybe 4 or 5," he said. "My dad showing me Bears games he recorded on VHS! Seeing Walter Payton's incredible runs."

Runs like that help define what Brad loves most about the NFL.

"The skill level of the NFL players and coaching is leaps and bounds better," he said.

In his lifetime, the game has changed and put more of a focus on player safety. For that reason, Brad's favorite part of the NFL has changed along with the times.

"It used to be the blind-sided hits and crack back blocks," he said. "Now, it's wide receiver routes. A beautifully run route to separate from a defensive back is beautiful."

The Sunday routine for Brad consists of a wake-up call around 10, pigs in a blanket about an hour later, which leads him right into game-time. Assuming they start at noon, the Chicago Bears dominate his airwaves, then it's the RedZone channel till Sunday Night Football comes on.

In the first potential cold-weather Super Bowl, Brad has a match-up of Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos facing Atlanta, with Peyton and company prevailing to win the Lombardi Trophy.

As far as surprise teams go, Brad went the opposite route of the others here and gave his surprise team to flop on its face this year.

"My surprise team this year is the Patriots. They will be bad...really bad," he said. "Tom Brady, for the first time in his career, has bum options to throw to."

Tim

Going to a Division I school isn't necessary for people to become fans of college football. In the case of Tim, it's one of the many reasons why he just can't get into college as much as the NFL.

"I never been able to make the attachment as a fan to any college team as it doesn’t seem natural and I can’t generate the same passion as the ones that did go to a Division I school," he said. "(Also), I think there are just way too many college teams and the product seems to get watered down."

His earliest memories stem from a team that he now despises - the 1985 Chicago Bears. Since then, he became a huge Dallas Cowboys fan (dating back to their dominance in the early 1990s). The national exposure and exciting players (citing the Irvin/Aikman/Smith triplets) sold him on the team that he continues to love.

So we already heard what he dislikes about college football. What exactly does Tim like about the NFL that makes it so special?

"The competition and parity are my favorite parts of the NFL," he said. "It seems like any team can win on any Sunday. And once playoffs start, throw out the records and watch a wild card team go on a run and take the whole thing."

Like Nick, Tim has a three television set-up that goes from noon till close. The DirecTV package comes in handy for this, allowing for Tim and his company to watch the games of their favorite squads. Getting the smoker or grill started beforehand is also a crucial aspect of Sundays for Tim, who treats his company to a variety of delicious cooked meats throughout the football season.

One surprise he believes is on the horizon for the 2013 season - a bounce back season from Kansas City.

"I like the Chiefs to be a lot better this year with a competent coach now (unless it comes to managing time or his timeouts) and a quarterback that is efficient and  does not turn the ball over," he said. "He is surrounded with some dynamic weapons and a coach that does a good job of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Their defense will be the biggest question mark/downfall."

The obligatory prediction business - Tim has Matt Ryan as a legitimate MVP candidate, with Ryan leading the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl victory over the Houston Texans to cap off the 2013-14 season.

And his final predictions?

"I like a couple of sophomore slumps to rear its ugly head with Wilson, RGIII and Luck," Tim said. "With more tape out on these guys now, I see defensive coordinators adjusting and slowing them down some. I think Luck’s style makes him the most likely to avoid the slump."

8/26/2013

NFL 2013 - A New Betting Approach

They say that NFL predictions are like assholes - everyone has one. Not only do I have NFL predictions, but I'm also an asshole (not really, I'm a nice guy).

Back in June, I posted my way too early 2013 preview, which highlighted my love of both NFL teams in Ohio. Since my opinion hadn't changed on either the Bengals or the Browns, I decided to put money where my mouth is with both teams.

My first set of bets centered around the Bengals being +235 to win the AFC North (odds which have fallen to +185 since) along with their 30/1 Super Bowl odds. I am still pondering a bet on their Over 8.5 wins, but the juice has gotten really high - I'm looking to see either a drop in juice or perhaps an alternate over to bet that would cut the juice.

This weekend, I made my second set of bets. At the one and only Super Bowlek fantasy draft, I bet my friend that Cleveland will make the playoffs this season (at 2/1 odds, which I found out should have been 4/1...oh well). Then, while seeing that the site added odds on specific teams making the playoffs, I took Baltimore's odds of not making the playoffs (-105) as opposed to their under 8.5 wins. The only way I get screwed with this bet is if Baltimore makes the playoffs with an 8-8 record, which is highly unlikely to happen. Otherwise, I'm looking at a bet that will likely win/lose either way (and offers a little insurance if Baltimore goes 9-7/10-6 and misses the playoffs).

I am looking to make more future bets, which will be what I intend on focusing on the most this season.

Some others I am considering:
  • St. Louis Over 7.5 wins
  • Seattle Under 10.5 wins
  • New Orleans Super Bowl odds at 20/1
  • Jacksonville Over 5 wins
  • Denver Under 11.5 wins
  • Kansas City Over 7.5 wins
  • Chicago Over 8.5 wins
I plan on narrowing these bets down a little after doing a little more schedule/injury research. I may also bet a couple of player props (i.e. rushing title winner).

I may take a shot on a few moderate division long-shots (Kansas City +570ish, StL +800, Carolina +475). In regards to this, I will be looking at early season schedule to see how likely odds are to shift one way or another on a weekly basis. Since 5dimes offers odds to win division on a weekly basis, you can likely get better odds if the team you think will win the division starts out with a loss or two, so if you can project this correctly, you can get yourself the best odds on the board.

I want the NFL to get here quick. Antsy to see how the Niners do in their first full year with Kaepernick. I am slightly worried about the wide receiver depth, but not really worried about the talent that Kaepernick possesses. I believe every team in the division improved, so no easy outs (I think Arians & Arizona will take a couple games in the division slate of games). 

The rambling has started, so it's time for me to call it a night. I will let y'all know about my finalized futures.

Peace.

Bets Made (updated 9/2/13):

Cincy to win AFC North (+235 - 7/28/13): 1.1 units to win 2.82 units
Cincy to win Super Bowl (30/1 - 8/16/13): 0.6 units to win 18 units
Baltimore NOT making playoffs (-105 - 8/26/13): 1.68 units to win 1.6 units
Dez Bryant leads league in receiving yards (+800 - 8/29/13): 0.9 units to win 7.2 units
Tampa Bay Under 7.5 wins (+125 - 9/2/13): 1.1 units to win 1.5 units
Carolina Over 7 wins/Cleveland Over 6 wins parlay (~+120 9/2/13): 1.6 units to win ~1.91 units



8/18/2013

NFL Playoff Paralysis by Analysis: New Playoff Teams & Fun Playoff Facts

Your team not make the NFL playoffs last year? If history is any indication (unless you're a Raiders fan), chances are that they're not that far away from making the January Madness.

Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).

Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).

So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?

No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans

With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.

So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?

My best guesses:


  1. Baltimore (will miss leadership on defense as well as some of their key offensive weapons - Pitta/Boldin helped make Flacco a rich man and will both be missed)
  2. Indy (they were the first 11-5 team ever to make the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored - regression to 6 or 7 wins is my projection).
  3. Washington (with how competitive the NFC East is and the RG3 health questions entering 2013, I don't see them successfully defending their division crown)
  4. Minnesota (Christian Ponder is going to miss Percy Harvin (and Greg Jennings is going to miss Aaron Rodgers), and I don't see how AP can carry this team to a playoff run like he did last year. Plus, like the NFC East, the NFC Central is strong top-to-bottom)
  5. Atlanta (this is more of a hunch than based in concrete data. Atlanta destroyed the division last year, but I think New Orleans w/ Sean Payton, Carolina w/ their stud Cam, and Tampa's big moves, like acquiring Revis Island, will likely lead to a few more losses for the Falcons this year)
  6. Green Bay (this certainly isn't a reflection of their QB, but more their offensive line, which could get Rodgers killed this year, and their defense, which got shredded in their playoff loss to the 49ers)
New England could get added to this list if Brady isn't able to establish good connections with his new receivers. I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some drop off with Seattle, who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick.

Fun Division Facts

There's a few nuggets that I'd like to share in my research and breakdown of the division winners in the 32-team NFL era (2002-current):

  • New England and Indianapolis are the only teams to win five straight division titles in this era, each accomplishing their respective feats from 2003-2007. Seattle (2004-2007) and SD (2006-2009) are the only other teams to have a run of four straight division titles.
  • The NFC South, which is among four divisions during this time to see all four of its teams win at least one division crown, has yet to have a reigning division title team repeat the next year. This does not bode well for Atlanta.
  • In addition to the above fact, the NFC South is the most represented division to make the big game, with a total of three different teams making a Super Bowl (2002 TB, 2003 Carolina, 2009 New Orleans). NFC West also has this distinction (Seattle in 2005, Arizona in 2008, San Fran in 2012).
  • Of the 10 teams who have won a Super Bowl between 2003 and 2012, only three of these teams did not make the playoffs the previous year (NE in 2003, NO in 2009, and NYG in 2011)
  • Of the 10 Super Bowl losers during this same time, only Carolina (2003), Arizona (2008) and Pittsburgh (2010) failed to make the playoffs the year before.
  • Of the 10 Super Bowl winners between 2002 and 2011, three missed the playoffs the following year (Tampa in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2006, NYG in 2012). I am projecting that Baltimore becomes the fourth.
  • Of the 10 Super Bowl losers between 2002 and 2011, half of them missed the playoffs the following year (Oakland in 2003, Carolina in 2004, Philly in 2005, Chicago in 2007, New England in 2008).
  • 23 of the 32 franchises have made the playoffs at least once in the past four postseasons. The casualties? Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.
  • Of these 23, 17 teams (or over half the league) has won at least one playoff game. Baltimore is the only team that has won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years.

8/05/2013

NFL Division by Division - Odds, Teams w/ Value & Pick

For about a month or so now, the wagering site 5dimes has had a variety of NFL odds up, including all of the divisions. If there's a story to be told from the division odds, it's that there is just as many hotly contested divisions as there is run-away winners (although we know that there's a good chance that one or two of these big favorites bombs out).

I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.

Odds as of 8/3/13

NFC North

GB -155
Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625


Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.


Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.

I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).

NFC East

NYG +215
Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425


Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.


Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.

NFC West

SF -105
Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400

Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.

Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?

NFC South

Atl +150
NO +170
TB +525
Car +650

Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.

Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.

AFC North

Pitt +170
Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770

Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?
  1. Defense - Geno Atkins has Defensive Player of the Year potential while the defense as a whole has top 3 potential. Atkins anchors the best defensive line in the division, a line which includes Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (6 sacks). They bring back a secondary that allowed the 7th-least passing yards. Their linebacking core added James Harrison, who has lost a step but could be a veteran presence that pushes the defense to greater success.
  2. Weakened rivals - Baltimore will miss the leadership of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed on defense. Joe Flacco will desperately miss the absence of Anquan Boldin & Dennis Pitta (Boldin to free agency, Pitta to injury). These two guys caught half of Flacco's 22 passing TDs in the regular season and 7 of his 11 TDs in the postseason. Torrey Smith is a deep threat, but is he capable of making up for the missing Boldin/Pitta connections? Jacoby Jones had a good Super Bowl, but overall not a guy you want as your #2. And while many expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, I'm not sold on their offense being able to do its share to win this division. Last year, they were in the bottom third in yards/play, thanks in large part to a 3.7 yards/carry. Will Le'Veon Bell help out? Perhaps, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to help.
  3. Offense upgrades through the draft - Tyler Eifert will give Andy Dalton another tight end to throw it to (Jermaine Gresham being the other), which should help open up the field for A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has a chance to take the running back reigns from Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Either way, both moves add much-needed depth to the offense.
Side note - it seems very weird to see Cleveland at such low odds (for them anyways), especially when their O/U is projected for only 6. I have Cleveland as another of my surprise teams (playoffs potentially), taking into mind the Norv Turner factor. He may have sucked ass as coach, but I think there can be a Wade Philips-like effect. Philips sucked as coach, but like Turner, has always thrived in a coordinator role. Take a look at the AFC and try to find me surefire picks for the playoffs. Outside of New England & Denver in weaker divisions, you can't.

AFC East

NE -425
Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200

Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.

Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.

AFC West

Den -380
SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500

Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.

Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.

AFC South

Hou -265
Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300

Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.

Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.

Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.

6/10/2013

B-Bo's 2013 (Way Way Too Early) NFL Preview

Every year, it seems like this blog comes earlier and earlier in the summer. And this year, it's technically before the Summer Solstice.

Why, it's the initial B-Bo Knows NFL preview blog, sponsored by (insert your company name here, I'm talking to you Cialis).

Initial thoughts of NFL entering this year...I may change this before the season, depending on injuries, etc.:


Teams that I expect to exceed their projected win totals by 2+ this year:


1. New Orleans - With Sean Payton returning to the helm, I expect the order to be restored in New Orleans. I'm expecting a first-round bye for the Saints and a return to the Super Bowl.

2. Carolina - Cam Newton got a lot of crap last year from the media for their poor start, but did not receive the proper credit for making the Panthers a competitive team down the stretch of 2012. I believe he will carry them into the playoffs in 2013.

3. Cleveland - While I don't believe Brandon Weeden will become a Pro-Bowl QB, I do think he will be a serviceable option for the Browns, and he has some decent skill guys around him on offense (Gordon, Little, Richardson), and what may be the quietest/best move of the offseason is Norv Turner hired as the team's offensive coordinator (dude can't coach a lick but is great as a coordinator, just like Wade Phillips). Their defense should be improved, as they focused their free agent spending and draft on that side of the ball. Call me crazy, but I think the Browns will make the playoffs this season. 

4. Cincy - Andy Dalton & AJ Green are establishing a great connection, and I believe this duo will ride the other's coattails to Hawaii for Pro Bowl appearances. They added a few pieces in the draft on the offensive side, and while they didn't do much on the defensive side as far as signings go, they got James Harrison for cheap. Plus, they had a strong defensive unit to begin with.


Teams that I expect to underachieve by at least 2 wins compared to their total:


1. Pittsburgh - I expect more regression from the Steelers before I expect a rise in wins. Big Ben seems like a 35-year old QB with all the wear-and-tear on his body. The strength of Pittsburgh is always the defense, and they were the best in terms of yards per play last year (4.6 yards/play), but it seems like most of their playmakers are on the wrong side of 30. This one is more of a hunch than anything and goes against the recent history of the Steelers.

2. Tampa Bay - I believe the NFC South will be the NFL's toughest division in 2013, so this is the main reason why I think Tampa will finish dead last and lower than their projected 7.5 wins by at least 2 games. I don't think the QB they have now (Freeman) is the answer, and while they have a Pro Bowler behind him in Doug Martin, recent trends show that running backs don't carry teams to success.

3. Indianapolis/Washington - I figured I'd liump these two together. Never before have the teams picking from #1 & #2 in the previous year's draft gone on to both make the playoffs. While I don't expect Luck & RG3 to regress too much, I do expect regression with both of their teams. The Colts were fortunate to finish 10-6 (Luck was turnover prone, they were outscored by their opponents last year). And my big question mark with the Redskins is whether RG3 is going to be rushed back too soon from his injury. I worry that the pressure that the media and fans put on Derrick Rose to return will be ten-fold for RG3, who rejuvinated a dead fanbase last year and is expected to build upon his rookie year with even higher expectations thanks to their division title.

I expect a lot of people to love both of these team's OVER total for wins, but I'm preaching the under for both teams, especially the Colts. Luck's magic down the stretch in games masked a lot of the problems that the Colts had on defense.

4. Minnesota - Another one of those cases where I think a team played over their heads and will have a regression to the mean. I'm a huge fan of All Day, but he literally carried this team to the playoffs last year. I don't think he can do it again without the help of Christian Ponder, who didn't really show himself to be much of a downfield threat. And missing Percy Harvin will not help matters.


Quick recap of my predictions by division:


AFC NFC
North North
Cin 11-5 Chi 10-6
Cle 9-7 GB 9-7
Balt 7-9 Det 9-7
Pitt 6-10 Min 5-11


South South
Hou 11-5 NO 12-4
Indy 7-9 Car 10-6
Ten 6-10 Atl 9-7
Jax 5-11 TB 4-12


East East
NE 12-4 NYG 10-6
NYJ 7-9 Phil 9-7
Mia 7-9 Dal 9-7
Buf 5-11 Wash 6-10


West West
Den 10-6 SF 10-6
SD 9-7 Sea 9-7
KC 7-9 StL 8-8
Oak 4-12

Ariz 4-12

Playoff teams

AFC: (1) NE 12-4; (2) Cincy 11-5; (3) Hou 11-5; (4) Den 10-6; (5) SD 9-7; (6) Cle 9-7

NFC: (1) NO 12-4; (2) SF 10-6; (3) NYG 10-6; (4) Chi 10-6; (5) Car 10-6; (6) Sea 9-7

AFC Championship Game: Cincy over Den
NFC Championship Game: NO over SF

Super Bowl: NO over Cincy

For your information, here are the totals (as of 6/10/13) for each team, according to 5dimes (I have bolded what I think will be the side that comes in). I added some comments about my thoughts for each team below:





26002 ARI regular season wins under 5½


26004 ATL regular season wins under 10


26006 BAL regular season wins under 8½ - I expect regression here as well.


26008 BUF regular season wins under 6½

26009 CAR regular season wins over 7


26011 CHI regular season wins over 8½ - Trestman does wonders in first season at helm.


26013 CIN regular season wins over 8½


26015 CLE regular season wins over 6


26017 DAL regular season wins over 8½ - As long as Jerry Jones is owner and Romo is QB, I am feeling 9-7 records for Dallas every year.



26020 DEN regular season wins under 11½

26021 DET regular season wins over 8 - Reggie Bush - best pick-up in NFC North
26024 GB regular season wins under 10½


26025 HOU regular season wins over 10½


26028 IND regular season wins under 8½



26030 JAX regular season wins under 5


26032 KC regular season wins under 7½


26034 MIA regular season wins under 8


26036 MIN regular season wins under 7½

26037 NE regular season wins over 11½ - new year, same Patriots


26039 NOR regular season wins over 9



26041 NYG regular season wins over 9 - back to division champs status



26043 NYJ regular season wins over 6½



26046 OAK regular season wins under 5½


26047 PHI regular season wins over 7½ - Kelly surprises amid low expectations for the Eagles this year.




26050 PIT regular season wins under 9

26051 SD regular season wins over 7½



26054 SF regular season wins under 11½ - Crabtree will be difficult loss for offense at first, especially with how Kaepernick relied on him. With tougher division/schedule, I expect 9/10 wins.


26056 SEA regular season wins under 10½ - Like Luck/RG3, I expect some regression w/ Russell Wilson. Still should contend for divison.

26057 STL regular season wins over 7½ - I liked their draft/offseason moves. Dark horse for division title, pending Bradford's development.



26060 TB regular season wins under 7½


26062 TEN regular season wins under 6½


26064 WAS regular season wins under 8