Now that I just got done lecturing people with my latest blog on do's and don'ts of gambling, it's time to write one of my favorite blogs of the year - the first of many gambling features on NFL & NCAA. I'll try updating this as accurately as possible. I forgot to post a lot of my NCAA plays on Saturday, which of course pretty much all ended up winners.
NCAA gambling in week 1 started out terribly, as I lost my first 4 bets placed, including taking one on the chin when I backed Navy +14.5 against Notre Dame in their game played in Ireland. After that though, it was smooth sailing, as I closed out the rest of the gambling weekend with 8 straight wins.
Lost: South Carolina -6.5, South Carolina/Vandy Over 21.5 2nd half, Minnesota -9, Navy +14.5
Won: Ohio +6.5, NIU +7.5, Hawaii +42.5, Alabama -13, Oregon team total over 54.5 points, Oregon 2nd half team under 21.5, SMU/Baylor Over 57, Georgia Tech +7.5
Overall, I ended up 8-4, +310.50. I'll try keeping this up to date (win or lose). Hopefully most weekends, I'll be able to keep this updated. For most updated picks, best to check my Twitter: @BrianBolek
Largest Spread Ever
On 5dimes, you can bet on Savannah State vs. Florida State. Question is: do you feel comfortable betting on Florida State spotting its opponent 65.5 points? That's what the line is. At some places, the line is over 70. If for some reason you think this game will be decided by 66-70 points, then maybe you want to bet both sides of the game. If you're a sane gambler, you'll probably just avoid it.
NCAA Week 2
Purdue +14 at Notre Dame - Expecting a Notre Dame letdown after a successful overseas trip. Also, Purdue has a chance to be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Ask @BerserkHippo.
Penn St. +10 at Virginia- Penn St. looked bad in the second half against Ohio, but I think Ohio is better than people expected. This line in the preseason was at about Virginia -3, so to say that PSU got 7 points worse based on the players they lost and their Week 1 performance seems a bit much. From what I've read about Virginia, there's nothing special about them. I still think PSU will be about a 5-6 win team, and here, I think they keep it closer than the line says.
Oregon State +7 vs. Wisconsin - Playing the angle of non-conference game, travel cross country for Wisconsin. Big Ten teams tend to struggle in these situations.
Duke +15.5 at Stanford - This is more of a gut play. Plus, what Stanford showed in its opener is that it will struggle without Andrew Luck and company, while Duke, not exactly a powerhouse in its own right, but has bowl aspirations this season and opened the season on a strong note. They are led by potential pro prospect Sean Renfree, who is the ACC's active career leader in yards and completions. I think Duke keep it within two scores.
NFL Week 1
Dallas +3.5 & Dal/NYG Over 23.5 first half - Games already bet, but I split these bets (1-1, +48.50)
KC +3 vs Atlanta - KC is highly under-rated and has a great home field at Arrowhead. Injuries devastated them last year. If I am right, they will win the AFC West this year. This will be the first step.
GB -5 vs San Fran - Check out my 49ers Fan Federation Blog for detailed analysis on this. I think Packers start season off strong, motivated by sour taste in mouth based on last year's ending.
NO -7.5 vs. Washington - Lots of hype behind RG III, but I think it'll take some time for him to get acclimated to the NFL landscape. Plus, the Superdome is a rough place for a debut. Saints roll.
Indy +10 at Chicago - Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal, and he is a great candidate to beat Cam Newton's one-year old record of rookie passing yards in a season. The Bears had a poor secondary last year. While I think the Bears will win, I think it'll be by one score, not two. Don't be shocked if there's a backdoor cover (i.e. a late score by the Colts that helps them cover the spread).
NFL betting YTD (including Fool's Gold): 1-1, +48.50 (follow me on Twitter @BrianBolek for official bets, which may include additional bets than the ones mentioned here)
Fool's Gold Pick of the Week
Tennessee +5.5 vs. New England - Nothing seems right about this line. Tom Brady - the Tom Brady - isn't even spotting more than a touchdown to second-year starter Jake Locker? What gives? Like the Bears, the Patriots had a poor secondary, which allowed teams with decent attacks to stay in games. I think Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Kendall Wright are a sufficient trio and between them will get a couple of Jake Locker touchdowns in the opener. Brady should put up points, but I believe the Titans will too. Look for this to stay within a field goal, with a possibility of a Titans upset in Week 1. I think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so you should probably bet the Under.
Fool's Gold YTD: 0-0, $0
Enjoy the start of the NFL season.
9/07/2012
B List - Gambling Dos & Donts (List 15)
It's been a few weeks without a B List. My apologies to those who were looking forward to that as a weekly feature. It should be back on, but it may be more sports related as I am amped up about football season being back.
As I prepare for the 9,000 fantasy leagues I've entered, I am also getting ready to start my favorite gambling season of all - NFL & NCAA gambling.
I know many friends of mine who are casual gamblers, some of them are more of the daily type of gamblers - you all know who you are, damn degenerates. In this B List, I'll focus on some of my personal do's and don'ts when it comes to gambling. I've gotten better at following most/all of these, but there are times where the degenerate in me comes out and I piss away my money.
Enjoy.
7. Do some research. It sounds simple, but it's an important part of gambling. It can be something as simple as reading a couple of pre-game stories or studying the injury report or as complicated as studying gambling trends of the teams in the game. I haven't found a specific routine when I study before a bet. With baseball, I like to use stats I find on baseball-reference.com. Also, SportsInsights.com offers free betting information that shows you what sites offer what lines and how heavily each team/side is being bet.
Occasionally, I will go with a gut pick, and obviously Week 1 picks are based on hunches, as we haven't seen the current ensemble of players play together in a meaningful game. As you've seen more games from a team, you should have a better idea on how a team will play together.
6. Don't bet if you are the type to get mentally/physically ill from losing money. Whether you bet just $5 or $100, if you can't handle losing, then I suggest not betting. Gambling is not for the faint of heart. When you do this as long as I have, you'll encounter some messed up losses and unreal wins. Anyone can handle the wins, but not everyone can handle the losses. If you're one of those folks, never gamble.
5. Don't bet with your heart. Too many people I know bet on their favorite teams, many of them blindly. Long term, this isn't a good approach. Your judgement on whether your team will win or not will usually err on the side of "win". If you're a real fan of the team, watching the game without betting on it should be good enough without adding the extra stress of wagering money on them to cover the 10 point spread.
4. Do expect to win if you gamble. Don't look at it as gambling - look at it as sports investing. Entering the gambling world with a little bit of confidence is good, but just don't expect to win every single bet. At the same time, don't bet if you've got the mindset, "I'm likely to piss this money away."
3. Do set limits for yourself. If you make 200-300 bucks a week, you probably shouldn't be gambling as much as someone who makes closer to a grand. I've heard different theories on how much of your bankroll you should risk on every game, but don't make a habit of risking anything close to what you make in a week. You're just asking for broken legs from bookies and/or really crappy
2. Do not chase losses. If your early bet lost, don't feel compelled to bet on a later game that you had no intention of betting just to try cancelling out the loss from earlier. This usually results in losing double the amount of money for the day, as you'll usually just end up making a bet for the sake of betting.
1. Do take a closer look at gambling lines that seem like "Locks". In case you hadn't noticed, Vegas and other places who rely on gambling revenue for survival don't just hand money out. If you see a line that makes you think they're handing you free money, maybe you should take a closer look at it. You're likely missing some key factors in why the line is lower than what you think it should be. Some folks frown upon this, but I often end up betting against what the general public bets. My weekly gambling column features "Fool's Gold", which highlights a line that seems too good to be true and usually has a high volume of public bettors betting on it.
As I prepare for the 9,000 fantasy leagues I've entered, I am also getting ready to start my favorite gambling season of all - NFL & NCAA gambling.
I know many friends of mine who are casual gamblers, some of them are more of the daily type of gamblers - you all know who you are, damn degenerates. In this B List, I'll focus on some of my personal do's and don'ts when it comes to gambling. I've gotten better at following most/all of these, but there are times where the degenerate in me comes out and I piss away my money.
Enjoy.
7. Do some research. It sounds simple, but it's an important part of gambling. It can be something as simple as reading a couple of pre-game stories or studying the injury report or as complicated as studying gambling trends of the teams in the game. I haven't found a specific routine when I study before a bet. With baseball, I like to use stats I find on baseball-reference.com. Also, SportsInsights.com offers free betting information that shows you what sites offer what lines and how heavily each team/side is being bet.
Occasionally, I will go with a gut pick, and obviously Week 1 picks are based on hunches, as we haven't seen the current ensemble of players play together in a meaningful game. As you've seen more games from a team, you should have a better idea on how a team will play together.
6. Don't bet if you are the type to get mentally/physically ill from losing money. Whether you bet just $5 or $100, if you can't handle losing, then I suggest not betting. Gambling is not for the faint of heart. When you do this as long as I have, you'll encounter some messed up losses and unreal wins. Anyone can handle the wins, but not everyone can handle the losses. If you're one of those folks, never gamble.
5. Don't bet with your heart. Too many people I know bet on their favorite teams, many of them blindly. Long term, this isn't a good approach. Your judgement on whether your team will win or not will usually err on the side of "win". If you're a real fan of the team, watching the game without betting on it should be good enough without adding the extra stress of wagering money on them to cover the 10 point spread.
4. Do expect to win if you gamble. Don't look at it as gambling - look at it as sports investing. Entering the gambling world with a little bit of confidence is good, but just don't expect to win every single bet. At the same time, don't bet if you've got the mindset, "I'm likely to piss this money away."
3. Do set limits for yourself. If you make 200-300 bucks a week, you probably shouldn't be gambling as much as someone who makes closer to a grand. I've heard different theories on how much of your bankroll you should risk on every game, but don't make a habit of risking anything close to what you make in a week. You're just asking for broken legs from bookies and/or really crappy
2. Do not chase losses. If your early bet lost, don't feel compelled to bet on a later game that you had no intention of betting just to try cancelling out the loss from earlier. This usually results in losing double the amount of money for the day, as you'll usually just end up making a bet for the sake of betting.
1. Do take a closer look at gambling lines that seem like "Locks". In case you hadn't noticed, Vegas and other places who rely on gambling revenue for survival don't just hand money out. If you see a line that makes you think they're handing you free money, maybe you should take a closer look at it. You're likely missing some key factors in why the line is lower than what you think it should be. Some folks frown upon this, but I often end up betting against what the general public bets. My weekly gambling column features "Fool's Gold", which highlights a line that seems too good to be true and usually has a high volume of public bettors betting on it.
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