2/02/2013

Prop-aring for the Super Bowl & The Madness of Super Bowl Betting

Here are a few questions to ponder:

  1. How long will Alicia Keys take to finish the national anthem?
  2. Will she add or forget any words when she is singing it?
  3. Will Jay-Z appear on stage with Beyonce at some point during her halftime performance?
  4. Will Beyonce's hair be curled, waved or crimped?
And while you're pondering them, you can also gamble on them. Yes - online sportsbooks offer gamblers a chance to win (or likely lose) a ton of money on the craziest stuff you can think of.

Now of course, there's close to a thousand props for people who use 5dimes.com to bet on (921 to be exact), ranging from the non-football bets above to bets such as a team's exact margin of victory and a lot in between.

Some of the larger odds:

  • If you think there will be a score within the first 30 seconds of the game, you can throw a few dollars on that at 50/1 odds.
  • If you think both QB's first passes will be interceptions, you can bet that at 400/1 odds (i.e. $10 nets you $4,000)
  • If you think the score will be tied at the half and at the end of the fourth quarter, you get those odds at 55/1.
  • If you believe the first score (like in last year's Super Bowl) will be a safety, you're getting 100/1 odds.
  • Betting on San Fran to win by exactly 41 points, you get 550/1 odds. Betting Baltimore to win by that same margin is a 2000/1 proposition. (Most exact margins of victory pay the most, but these are the highest).

Now, some of the ones I am considering:

  1. Total missed FGs: Over 1 +275: Including the postseason, Justin Tucker missed only 3 of 35 field goals in his rookie year. However, the veteran on the other sideline has been awful. David Akers has missed 14 of 44 field goal attempts, including a miss in 10 of 18 games. He had 4 multi-miss FG games. I think this offers value, as you can get at least a push if there's only one miss.
  2. LaMichael James: Over 5.5 carries/25.5 rushing yards: I've lumped these two together. I believe that the Niners' best chance to win will be on the ground. James is fresh, and with little game tape of the Oregon speedster, I believe Harbaugh (the Jim version) will have him featured more. With the Ravens having allowed 125+ rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, I believe there will be plenty of opportunities for Gore and James to get theirs.
  3. Score in first 4 minutes (+270): San Fran has had a tendency in both postseason games to start slow, with an early pick-6 by Green Bay and a quick first drive by Atlanta in the NFC title game to open up the scoring. Don't be surprised (if Balt gets ball first) for Flacco to go deep to Torrey Smith to start the game.
  4. Michael Crabtree MVP (+1800): I made the case for Crabtree in a previous blog. If San Fran wins thanks to Kaepernick, there's a decent chance he's been targeting Crabtree. As long as Crabtree grabs the majority of Kaep's yards & TDs, I think he has good value at 18/1, as long as Kaepernick doesn't run for 50+ yards as well.

101 Bets

In case you missed last year's feature, I interviewed a couple of friends on their annual tradition of betting on 101 separate props. This year was no exception to their betting adventures. The Man of Little Stature won the coin toss and made his first pick "The Football Travels Over 1499.5 yards", which has become his new favorite bet over "the pylon gets knocked down".

Here's a list of their bets for this year. This...is how professionals do it:

  LM TS
1. Heads/tails: Tails  
2. Calling team picks:   Tails
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss: Loses  
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers:   Chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1499.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards + successful FG yards): Over  
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:   Run
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: Pass  
8. First score, TD/FG:   FG
9. First team to score:   SF
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception: Int  
11. Which team commits the first turnover:   Balt
12. Which team commits more turnovers: Balt  
13. First team to take a timeout:   SF
14. First team to challenge play:   SF
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5:   Under
16. First quarter points, over/under 9.5: Over  
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 14:   Under
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 10: Over  
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5:   Over
20. Total points for game, over/under 47.5:   Under
21. All timeouts used in the first half: No  
22. All timeouts used in second half:   No
23. First penalty committed by which team: Balt  
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards:   Under
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC:   Balt
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC: Balt  
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
28. Most team passing yards:   Balt
29. Most team rushing yards:   SF
30. Most team passing TDs:   Balt
31. Most team rushing TDs:   SF
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards: SF  
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC: SF  
34. More FG/TD in game: TD  
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game: Yes  
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half: No  
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:   Yes
38. Will there be a safety in the game:   No
39. Will there be an OT: No  
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion:   No
     
41. Last team to score: SF  
42. Last team to score win/lose:   Win
43. Anyone ejected from game:   No
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s: Under  
45. First/second half, most points scored:   2H
46. Which team will record more sacks:   SF
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores: No  
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC:   SF
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards: Over  
50. Which team will score the longest TD: SF  
51. Will there be a defensive TD:   No
52. Will there be a special teams TD:   No
53. Which team will kick the longest FG:   Balt
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick: No  
55.Will game be tied after 0-0:   Yes
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock): Over  
57. Winner of Super Bowl: SF  
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5:   Over
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC:   Balt
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first:   TD
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first:   TD
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble: No  
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble:   No
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers): SF  
65. Which team will intercept more balls: SF  
66. NFC QB first pass complete? Yes  
67. AFC QB first pass complete? Yes  
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands:   Stands
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC: SF  
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC:   SF
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC: SF  
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC:   Balt
75. Which team punts from deepest spot: Balt  
76. Which team kicks for more points:   Balt
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC:   Balt
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5: Under  
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards: Balt  
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5: Under  
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards:   Over
     
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards:   No
83. Will there be a missed FG:   No
84. Last score, FG/TD: TD  
85. Will there be a red zone turnover: No  
86. Who places more punts inside the 20: SF  
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game: Yes  
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty: No  
89. Will there be a blocked FG: No  
90. Will there be a blocked punt:   No
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass:   No
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker: No  
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC:   Balt
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC: SF  
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards:   Under
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards: Under  
97. Is a double digit lead ever established:   No
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead: SF  
99. Who has more time of possession:   SF
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QBs:   SF
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QBs: Kickers