How's Your Bracket & Other March Madness Musings

How does your bracket look?

Honestly, I stopped looking at mine with the string of upsets on Thursday, particularly New Mexico (one of my Final Four). But with that loss, I decided that this March (and future Marches) would not be considered a success or failure based on my brackets. Instead, my focus will be strictly on my gambling account.

Does this look like a successful bracket to you?

I don't think this bracket is going to win me anything. Too many red lines too early in the tourney.

But you know what? As long as the bets I make are coming in, I don't care if this whole sheet is full of red lines.

I have had some bad bets (Montana was my worst bet of the year, possibly a top-5 all-time worst bet) - note that I don't always bet with my bracket (but usually do). For instance, one of my best bets ever came on Friday, betting on Florida Gulf Coast against Georgetown (the first half line of +7.5, game line of +13.5 & the best part, the money line of +800 - the biggest money line I've ever hit for a single game).

Are We the Champions?

The big bets still alive exist in the East bracket, where I have two teams still alive for my prop bet to win the tourney. Illinois did what they could to blow their huge lead, but ultimately held on to win. They face Miami on Sunday. I'm not really sure what to expect from them, but I'm hoping that they or California (preferably both) can pull off upsets in their Round of 32 matchups - Cali has Syracuse Saturday night.

A California title would net me $3750 on a $15 bet, while an Illinois championship would pay $4125. The odds of either team winning it are still remote, but it's still nice to see them stay alive. I hope one of them teases me with another win and a promotion to the Sweet 16.

Speaking of Illinois...

I've heard there's a lot of Illinois fans consumed with hatred of Bruce Weber, so much so that they seem to be enjoying the Kansas State loss more than their school's win. If you have any issues with Weber, you have issues yourself. I'm not sure what he did to get people to hate him so much. So what if he wasn't the best basketball coach? It's not like the guy murdered anyone - no reason to root so hard against a guy that led your school to its only title appearance in 2005.

If you're an Illini fan reading this and you're angry with Weber about his stint with Illinois....get over it. It's over and done with. Embrace the current and future Illinois teams. Enjoy watching these teams coached by a fantastic young coach (John Groce was a great hire) who has proven himself as a solid recruiter. Don't waste your energy on a part of our school's past that frankly wasn't all that bad.

Speaking of bad...

Did any of you attempt to watch most/all of the March Madness action? If so, I apologize. My eyes and brain hurt greatly from the poor quality of games so far this tourney. Forgive me if you disagree, but the quality of play from most teams was evident. I'm sure you can cite a plethora of reasons for this: (1) playing outside of normal game conditions, (2) lack of overall talent due to underclassmen going to the NBA, (3) pacing of games is choppy with all the TV timeouts, coaching timeouts and fouls, etc.

For me, especially this year, it's been almost impossible for me to watch games without having a reason to watch it (i.e. gambling). And for many of you, you'd probably not be watching these games if you didn't have bets on it or a bracket to follow. Gambling and brackets drive the March Madness, not the quality of play. We get so blinded by how great college basketball supposedly is by the 63 items to fill on those brackets that we don't even realize how poorly played these games are. Sloppy fouls, horrible turnovers, ridiculous shots that require viewers to consume shots. If you can enjoy these games without a bracket and without bets, then all the more power to you - I can't.

Good luck with your bets/brackets the rest of the tourney. I hope the games are higher quality than we've seen so far.

Reheat: NBA Preview 2012

With such a short offseason compared to other major sports, it never feels like NBA is out of season.

The freshest things in mind are the ones I'll touch upon. I have friends who I'd consider bigger basketball junkies than me - I'll give you a simpleton's point of view with this past offseason.

The Dwight Stuff

It only took what seemed liked decades, but Dwight Howard finally got his wishes to leave Orlando when his old team traded him to the Lakers. Howard joins veteran Steve Nash as the big acquisitions to the Lakers, who are gearing up for at least one more Kobe title run before he hangs it up in a few years. Anyone who thought the Lakers were not the favorites to land Howard all along (rumors had him going to the Nets as they kick off their inaugural season in Brooklyn). I believe the Lakers will make it far, but I believe their championship will have to wait a year.

Agony of the Heat

Speaking of champions, America's least favorite team - ok, maybe more so Chicago area's least favorite team - is the reigning NBA champion. They added sharpshooting veteran Ray Allen to the mix - a great move in my opinion. I foresee a lot of Lebron kick-outs to a wide open Allen for three this season. With the championship taste still in their mouths, I expect the champs to repeat en route to what should be a dynasty that features at least 4-5 championships (assuming LeBron stays there and doesn't opt out in a couple years).

Thunder Struck

Just a few days ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded away James Harden to the Houston Rockets, with the key player coming to the Thunder being Kevin Martin. A lot of people are wondering why the Thunder would make such a move, but apparently Harden turned down a contract with them (wasn't a max contract). With the trade, he can make about 50% more over the life of the contract (signing a max deal w/ Houston over the deal the Thunder offered) if I've read everything right. So he goes from a championship caliber team to a rebuilding one - the classic "Should I chase money or rings?" argument. He can't convince me or anyone else that he thinks he'll even come close to sniffing a conference finals, yet alone contend for a title, in the next 3-4 years, where with OKC, he's likely guaranteed a few more title appearances if he stays. More power to him for taking the money. We all say we'd go for the ring if we were these guys, but WE aren't talented basketball players capable of being in a position to make these choices. Good luck Harden - you'll need it.

Flop It Like It's Hot

One of the biggest rule changes that took place over the offseason was the NBA instituting a fine system for players who attempt to flop on fouls in their attempt to eliminate it from the game. I forgot what journalist said it (I think it was Bomani Jones) who said this will likely create a class in the NBA of those who can afford to flop and those who can't. Players can be fined up to 30K if they are caught flopping up to five times. A guy making six figures won't chance flopping that many times. Should be interesting to see (a) how often this gets enforced and (b) who are guys who get hit with the most fines.

Predictions By Division (in predicted order) - numbers represent their predicted seed in playoffs

Eastern Conference

Atlantic: 2. Boston, 5. Philly, 7. Brooklyn, New York, Toronto

Central: 3. Indiana, 6. Chicago, 8.  Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit

Southeast: 1. Miami, 4. Atlanta, Washington, Orlando, Charlotte

Notes: Yes, probably a little shocked to see Cleveland in the playoffs. I was initially surprised to put them there, but then remembered several playoff teams from last year (New York and Orlando) who I eliminated from consideration. Kyrie should take the next step and show why Cleveland picked him number 1.

Otherwise, my picks are pretty bland. I picked all of the favorites to win their respective divisions here. The most likely division for a long-shot winner would probably be the Atlantic. The Heat should clinch the Southeast title by the end of March, if not sooner. If Rose can return and shake off the rust quick, I could see the Bulls finishing top 2 or 3 in the conference. My projection is that if he does return, the rust will take a while to shake.

Western Conference

Northwest: 2. Denver, 3. Oklahoma City, 7. Utah, Minnesota, Portland

Pacific: 1. LA Lakers, 6. LA Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento

Southwest: 4. Memphis, 5. San Antonio, 8. Dallas, Houston, New Orleans

Notes: I threw a curveball and have Denver and Memphis as division winners. I think I'm buying into Denver based on Hollinger's projection more so than my own analysis. I also think it could take some time for the Thunder to get used to playing without Harden. The Lakers should roll this division but will likely save their energy for the playoffs, so 56/57 wins should be expected as opposed to 60+.

Eastern Playoffs Round 1: Miami over Cleveland, Boston over Brooklyn, Chicago over Indiana, Atlanta over Philly

Western Playoffs Round 1: Lakers over Dallas, Denver over Utah, OKC over Clips, San Antonio over Memphis

EP Round 2: Miami over Atlanta, Boston over Chicago

WP Round 2: Lakers over Spurs, OKC over Denver

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Boston

Western Conference Finals: Lakers over OKC

Finals: Miami over LA in 6

NBA MVP: LBJ.......Sleeper: Kyrie Irving 

NBA 6th Man:  Manu Ginobili. San Antonio.....Sleeper: I don't know this category well enough to predict it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC.....Sleeper: Andre Iguodala - Denver

Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver....Sleeper: Larry Drew, Atlanta

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Most Improved Player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

Random prop questions:

1. Will anyone get flop fines up until/past the fifth flop? No
2. Will the Bobcats set an NBA record for losses in a season? No, but barely
3. Return timeline for Derrick Rose - All-Star Break (Before or After): After
4. Biggest Longshot w/ a title hope: Denver at 50/1
5. Biggest Favorite w/ little title hope: Chicago at 16/1 (No Rose, No Shot)

Bets made before season: Denver to win Northwest division +540 (50/270); Denver Over 51.5 wins (130/100)

Rocktober: The Best Sports Month (and Week 6 Picks)

Yesterday was a very sad day for me to bury the remains of my World Series bets, and boy, did the Giants and Tigers help speed up that burial process by beating the Reds and Athletics, respectively.

It still doesn't change the fact that for me, this is my favorite month of sports. This month contains the start of the MLB playoffs, the start of conference play in college football and the initial separation of the pretenders and contenders in the NFL.

There's also the start of NBA training camp and for you hockey fans, the start of another great hockey season. Sorry hockey fans - from everything I've heard, it doesn't look good for this year. But I said the same thing about the NBA, and they got their act together for an abbreviated schedule. And for my friends (ok, friend) who watches and bets on the WNBA, you got their finals going on right now.

This month has just about every sport that Joe American gives a crap about. While my World Series bets didn't pan out (none of the six - yes....six - even made it to baseball's final four), I'll still be paying close attention. Hell, maybe I'll make a seventh bet and take my initial hunch entering the postseason (Detroit).

If you're a sports fan and don't like this month, I seriously doubt the sincerity of your enjoyment of sports.

NFL Picks for Week 6

Last week, I went 9-4 with my picks. Not all of them were posted - I've been doing a really shitty job of updating my picks. I'll try doing a better job of posting them, especially since I'm doing a little better as of late.

Bets won: StL +2, Ariz/StL Under 19 1H, Cle/NYG Over 43.5, KC +6, SF -10, NO/SD Over 53.5, NO/SD Over 27 1H, NYJ +10, Hou/NYJ Under 40.5

Bets lost: Cle +8, KC Money Line, Sea/Car Over 42.5, Jax +6 (oops on that one - big whiff)

For this week, here are my picks:

Fool's Gold 1 - Dallas +3.5 at Baltimore - People will think of these things (Dallas's last game, Baltimore's record and defensive reputation) and be willing to fork over their cash on Baltimore. Yes, Dallas took a dump on their home field a couple Monday nights ago against the Bears. But Baltimore isn't as good as their 4-1 record indicates. Outside of their first week game when they blew out Cincy, each of their last four games have come down to the final possession. Despite the points allowed per game (17.8, good for 7th in the league), their defense is fairly average (14th in yards per play, including 22nd in yards per pass attempt). Playing Kansas City, who somehow only mustered 6 points with 214 rushing yards, will help with that PPG. Dallas comes into the game rested and hungry for a win - take the points.

Fool's Gold 2 - Buffalo +4.5 at Arizona - One of the things I've learned over the years when it comes to gambling: when a team looks just so bad and pathetic over a couple week stretch, the very next week is a very good time to cash in on them. And by cashing on them, I mean actually betting them. Most people see Buffalo's last couple weeks (allowing 48.5 points & 600 yards A GAME), numbers that certainly scream to most that I should probably bet on the other team. That's usually the perfect time to strike. Arizona is not a true 4-1 team (after watching them last week, I'm convinced they will fade, likely to about .500 by year's end). Their offense is terrible. They'll be starting a third-string RB behind a crappy offensive line. Expect this to be an ugly game. In ugly games, I like to take the points. So yeah, take the points.

Other (possible) bets: GB +3.5, NYJ -3/3.5, Mia -4, Cin/Cle Over 43

NCAA Week 7

Tex Tech +4, Purdue -1, Pitt +3, Duke +10, Min +3.5

Good luck to everyone with their teams/picks this week. Enjoy another great October weekend of sports.

What's 55 inches that me and my girlfriend both love equally?

Our TV, you perverts.

As the NBA season closes its doors on the 2012 in the next week, I will be losing half of the sports that are currently in season that I somewhat care about - baseball being the other.

This will be bad news for the relationship that me and the large-and-in-charge 55" TV have developed since I moved in on June 1st. It will also be bad news for my good luck in betting on the playoffs, which seems to happen more often than not for some reason. (Although, the novice gambler in me says it's probably a good thing that my gambling outlets will be shut down).

It will be good news for someone though - you guessed it: the girlfriend!

From next week until football season starts, yours truly will likely cut back on my sports watching consumption. I guess this is really nothing new - as the NBA winds down every year, baseball remains the only competitive sport in its regular season for a couple of months that I give a crap about.

But with having the new TV, I feel like I need to be watching sports on it twice as much as before. I figure - this TV is about twice as large as the one I have downstairs; hence, twice the sports consumption. Will I watch more baseball on TV than before? I'd say likely, particularly on Saturdays when the lady is at work and the Fox game of the week is on.

With less sports on, Jen and I won't have to argue about who gets to watch the big TV and who has to watch the tiny, puny, pathetic TV in our room (ok, it's just tiny, puny and pathetic compared to the living room TV). So far during our time here, I've had the luxury of many evenings watching the last two rounds of the NBA playoffs while the lady has cooped herself in the bedroom watching her shows. I'll probably end up watching a few of these shows that she watches on demand, like True Blood & Game of Thrones as the summer commences and the sun sets on the NBA.

Once football season begins, it'll be another 17-week tour of duty over at Tim's and his version of the Big 3 - his 70" and two 32" TVs. I can't wait to watch games on the LeBron of his TVs, just as long as it never randomly turns itself off in the fourth quarter of a close game! (Zing - even I can find a time to lamely make fun of LeBron!). Had to get that reference out while I still can - dude has been playing unreal this playoff season.

A playoff season that I've been able to enjoy the past three weeks thanks to the luxury of my gigantic television. Soon, it will be relegated (and hopefully not fall asleep on itself) to several months of baseball and perhaps whatever golf or tennis major happens to be going on at the time.

I can't wait for that first NFL game and first college football Saturday of watching the early non-conference action. Until then, to the TV, I say - it's been nice knowing you. Jen will take good care of you to make up for the times I leave a dragged out baseball game on for too long.

Turn the Heat Up: NBA Finals Preview (OK, more of a LeBron rant)

Outside of my B-lists, I haven't found much time to write lately. That's what packing and moving and trying to settle into a place will do to a guy.

Probably won't be too long with this blog, but I figured I should get my NBA Finals blog in before deadline.

As you may have read before, here's the predictions I made before the playoffs started. For once in my life, I got a Finals prediction right, with several predictions coming in exactly as stated.

Now, about 30 minutes away from tip off, I've already read plenty of stuff about how LeBron is going to choke again, how he will never win a title, how he's not the best player in the league.

Some of this I believe to be the product of the 24/7/365 (this year, 24/7/366) news cycle that requires networks such as ESPN to have a loud opinion at all times. And as in the news, whatever bleeds, leads, so we have the negative nonsense that drips from the mouths of a-holes that ESPN dares to call analysts.

In this day and age, the target of everyone's venom is LeBron James, whose biggest crime was to make a fool of himself on national television and decided he had had enough of playing with a below average basketball team. He's such a jerk, all the $2.5 million in ad revenue that came from The Decision went to the Boys and Girls Club of America. What a dick. So as he said the words, "I'm taking my talents to South Beach", so began the unreasonable hate of LBJ, a hate that many sports fans seem to thrive in.

The energy exuded as people talk about him makes me think that LeBron killed your family and made you watch. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that no, he didn't kill your family. The dude dribbles (and many times, "dribbles") and shoots basketballs for a living - not exactly stuff that people need to get all worked up about.

Yet, every time I look on Twitter, Facebook or any NBA-related programming on TV, all I ever hear about is how is LeBron going to choke this time, how LeBron sucks, how LeBron will never be Jordan, etc. I do think, at least here in Chicago, there is the constant need for us to compare the players that are considered the greatest now to Jordan, which is not fair to anyone - not Jordan, not James, not anyone. When we hear the words MVP and greatest, we don't want to believe that there will ever be another Jordan - which any reasonable person would agree is not going to happen.

In Jordan, we had a guy who hated to lose. You got the feeling that Jordan would run over his mother in the lane if she was standing there if it meant an inch closer to victory. With LeBron, you don't get that feeling. In that way, I can see a reason to shake your head at with James.

I think in all aspects of life, we should embrace and respect greatness, whether it's on a basketball court, a concert stage, or even a kitchen. Not only that, but we should want to see the great want to be great and do whatever they can to be great. We shouldn't want people to settle for mediocrity. If the most talented at their craft consistently show the urge to be great, it can be a great thing to witness.

What we saw in Game 6 with LeBron James just flat out taking over the game on the brink of elimination was a thing of beauty. If you hate the guy after a performance like that, you're suffering from a severe case of jealousy. We should want to see great. What many people have hated from LeBron is when he has looked average in the past when we know what he is capable of.

I know this is not much of a preview, but I just wanted to stress how it doesn't do us as sports fans any good if James doesn't win this year. Do you really want another year of losers like Skip Bayless saying that LeBron sucks (while touting incompletion machines like Tebow)? The annoying chatter will only get more annoying, will only take up more air time. WE. DO. NOT. WANT. THAT. If you do, you're a sadistic person and you'll get what you'll ask for.

Of course, the Heat have to earn it, which they will do if they win. The Thunder are a great team, probably a little deeper than the Heat. I don't need to get into match-ups - not really my thing anyways.

I'm banking on the Heat's experience from last year to play a role in this year's Finals. I expect a split in the first two games, Heat taking two of three at home, then taking home the crown in a great 6 game series.

I was called a Heat apologist from a friend of mine. I can see why he might think that, but in reality, all I want to do is find the Truth, which is somewhere in the middle of everyone's unnecessary hate of LBJ & the Heat and my "defending" them.

I'm no Heat fan - just a fan of folks not being dumb when it comes to criticism. If you're going to hate LeBron, hate him for his effort if he doesn't show his full display of talents. Don't hate him for some decision that 98% of us would agree is a reasonable one - leaving a fledging business to become a co-CEO of a Fortune 500 company.

For the next two weeks, I'm rooting for the Heat because I want to be able to watch the NBA next year without hearing the same narrative play out another year. Is that too much to ask?

The Finals Countdown: NBA Playoff Preview (2K12 version)

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are right around the corner. I got half of the Finals right last year (Heat but no Thunder). Now, that particular match-up is the one that many would like to see (and one that many expect to see).

The Spurs expect to make a strong push as they get the #1 seed in the West for the 2nd year in a row. Somehow, they were written off by many (except for my friend Tom), probably because their age was looked at as a detriment in the compacted schedule due to the lockout.  Popovich (along with Thibodeau and Vogel) should be considered a front-runner for Coach of the Year with how he has been able to manage his version of the Big Three (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) along with the rest of his roster. I came across a stat on Twitter (didn't double check it, so take this for what it's worth) that the Spurs only lost 3 games total when their roster (I assume their normal starters) was at full strength.

The Thunder look like a good bet to make a run. Coming off of his third straight scoring title, Kevin Durant looks to have a complete squad around him (another scoring option in Westbrook, solid defenders in Harden and Ibaka, a veteran with a few rings in Derek Fisher). I'm looking at Spurs/Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder taking it.

The top spot in the East goes to the Bulls again. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose due to various injuries for what seemed like months, Tom Thibodeau was able to muster out a 50-16 record and the top overall seed in the NBA. However, no matter how much Bulls and their fans may be happy with the #1 seed in the East, they will (and should) be ultimately judged on whether they can make the next step in the 2012 Playoffs and advance to the NBA Finals. This will likely involve a matchup versus the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When the season started, we all wanted to just fast-forward into the end of May and get the Miami/Chicago series going already - pretty much dismissing the rest of the East. While I still think this will be the series, my convictions on the series are not as strong. I'm not sure if Miami has been on cruise control in the regular season and waiting for the playoffs to step everything up, but they've given me an uneasy feeling in terms of backing them to win it all. They had a two-week streak earlier this year of beating teams by 12+ points, so I know there's a championship caliber team there if they play up to their talent level.

Last year, the Heat took four straight after losing Game 1 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of the credit for that series win goes to LeBron's defense on Rose, one of the few guys who can match Rose's speed and has many inches on the reigning MVP. I'd say the Bulls look better as a team this year, but the playoffs are a different matter. I still think the Heat will take the East, especially with Rose's health lingering as a constant question throughout the year. If Rose can maintain a semblence of health, I'd give the Bulls a good shot of winning it. BUT, and it's a big BUT, someone else will need to step up as a scorer in the series in the event LBJ contains Rose just as well as last year. With Rose's health in question, I have to give the Heat the edge.

You may argue that the Bulls played well (even against the Heat) without Rose this year, but they will need Rose at his best in a 7-game series (no matter how deep their bench) against the Heat.

So for the second year in a row, I'm going Heat/Thunder in the finals, with the Heat winning it. It's not much of a reach, but it's just what I see happening. If you care to provide your own opinions, I'm all ears.

Eastern Conference Playoffs
R1: Bulls over Sixers (sweeeeeep); Celtics over Atlanta in 6 (I can't trust Atlanta. Ever.) Miami over NY in 5; Pacers over Magic in 6
R2: Bulls over Celtics in 7 (trying to duplicate their series from 2010, with the reverse result); Miami over Indiana in 6
ECF: Miami over Chicago in 6

Western Conference Playoffs
R1: Spurs over Jazz in 5; Memphis over LAC in 6; Denver over LAL in 6 (they will miss World Peace); Thunder over Mavericks in 6
R2: Spurs over Memphis in 7; Thunder over Denver in 5
WCF: Thunder over Spurs in 6

Finals
Heat over Thunder in 6.

Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel, Pacers
League MVP: LBJ, Miami
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cle
6th Man: James Harden, OKC
Improved Player: Ryan Anderson, Magic
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC

None-and-Done: Why the NBA Needs to Let Preps Go Pro Again

The moment Kentucky won the NCAA crown, plenty of critics of the "one-and-done" voiced their displeasure with how the Wildcats recruitted a bunch of kids who were likely only going to play one year in college (thanks to the NBA's rule requiring high schoolers to wait a year to join the NBA*). I imagine that some of these people don't watch college basketball all that closely. I have a few problems with the one-and-done rule, but they're not the same as everyone elses.

*Most players will go to college for a year, but can opt to play overseas for a year - Brandon Jennings did this in 2008-09 before playing for the Milwaukee Bucks

My view is that the NBA should not be able to put any rule on someone going to college, especially when it's a kid who has clear NBA talent right out of high school (i.e. LeBron).

1. Other sports allow high school kids to get drafted. While the NFL requires players to be three years removed from high school to be draft-eligible, the MLB & NHL allow high school kids to be drafted in their amateur drafts. Each team may have its own views on drafting high schoolers (some may prefer high schoolers for their "upside" while others may prefer college kids' experience, who are a little more battle-tested after facing (and presumably dominating) peers of amateur status). Just because a team has the opportunity to draft a high schooler doesn't mean they have to.
   
   The main reason the NFL has a three-year wait is the size and speed of its athletes, who are clearly superior to their 18-19 year old counterparts and need those 3 years to develop into NFL-type bodies. While there is a learning curve for the NBA that one can gain from college experience, I don't think college is necessary for high school players who have NBA talent. Teams who draft high schoolers could also send them to the NBA Developmental League, their version of the minor league systems that hockey and baseball employ.
   
   Somewhat of an aside, but why isn't there an uproar every year about these sports above when it comes to no college/little college experience? I don't know if race is a small part of it, but it could be. Is it because we care more about college basketball as a country than college baseball and college hockey? Perhaps. If anyone has a reason for this (or a reason for your own hatred of one-and-done college basketball), please let me know.
2. The NBA has overblown the "high school kids fail" angle. Before Kevin Garnett started the wave of high school players being drafted by NBA teams, not too many players took that leap. Instead, many found 3-4 years of college to be a great preparation opportunity for the pros. Once he made the leap, other top high school players said, "Why not me?"
   
   After Garnett (1995 draft), there have been 38 players who went straight from high school to the pros (source: Wiki). Out of those 38, eight of them have made an All-Star Game (Kobe, Jermaine O'Neal, McGrady, Rashard Lewis, Amare, LeBron, Dwight Howard & Andrew Bynum). Of the remaining 30, there have been some solid players (Al Harrington, Tyson Chandler, Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, JR Smith, Monta Ellis). Some may think others on the list are solid contributors, too. If you're just to use the list of people I mentioned, that's 15 of 38 legitimate pros that went from prep-to-pro. Not a bad ratio if you ask me.
   
   I don't want to hear the BS that GMs have made too many mistakes on high school kids. Guess what? They also make horrible draft choices on guys who actually have gone to college. Michael Olowokandi anyone?  How well did Adam Morrison's three years at Gonzaga help the Bobcats analyze his skill set? Same for Hasheem Thabeet and the Grizzlies. Fact is: drafts are inexact sciences for every sport. For every Kobe Bryant, there's two Leon Smiths. If you don't know much about Smith, I might suggest looking him up. Talk about a waste of talent.
3. The NBA's one-year wait disturbs the college experience. If you make a kid who knows he will be a professional basketball player in one year go to school against his will, do you really think he's gives a rat's ass about his scholarly experience? (Note, this is all just opinion - I have no facts to back this up - just trying to get into the mind of one of these players). Do you think that he is going to show up for all of his classes and get a 3.8 GPA, only to leave for the NBA after one year?
   
   More power to the guys who do this, but I imagine those guys are among the small percentage of those who go out of their way to care about their education for that 9 month period. Why should money be wasted on that kid's "scholarship" when everyone knows he is just there for basketball and for one year? Why don't we just cut the crap and say these kids are there just to play basketball (you know, like the NBA)? If a kid wants to miss out on a college experience, it's their loss. But it should also be their choice. If you make a kid go to school and go to class, don't you think he has a greater chance of being a distraction than the average student?
4. We live in a free society (allegedly). Let's act like it. It's quite the general statement, but we live in a country that preaches freedom of choice. This includes the right to choose to go to college or not. If you present the plusses of going to college to a stud player and he still doesn't want to go, then screw it - let him make his own choice. If his NBA career becomes a failure at that point, then it's his problem to deal with.

I don't think making kids stay in college longer (some people suggest 2 years of college should be mandatory) should be an answer. Forcing them to stay there a year longer, when most of them I(i.e. the talented preps who want to go pro ASAP) probably don't even want to be there for one year,  doesn't make sense.

One of the best alternative solutions I saw was on a post from my friend Nick, which suggested teams who draft high school players owning the rights to a player, while allowing the player to play college ball. Here's the link to it - it makes sense.

I don't know if they'll ever change the one-and-done rule in college basketball, but if they do, I hope they change it back to the none-and-done, where high schoolers have the right to explore their careers. If one of the main points of college is to figure out your career, then what would be the point of these kids (who know what they want to do) going to school for two semesters?

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

rock out with your lock-out: NoBody cAres

What's there to talk about in the sports world on this, the 12th day of October?

Hmmm....

In the NFL, you got some surprise teams on the good side (Lions, Bills, Niners), some on the bad side (Eagles, Falcons, Jets), dominant QBs and the defending champs looking every bit the part so far this year.

In college football, the SEC is once again making waves, with a November matchup between LSU and Alabama acting almost as a play-in game for the BCS championship in January. Also in this neck of the woods, you have the already bowl-eligible Illinois, 6-0 and facing Theeeeeeeeeee Reeling Ohio State Buckeyes.

In baseball, the playoffs have some exciting teams still left. Personally, I'd love to see a Verlander vs. Carpenter matchup in a week with a World Series game on the line.

Hockey season just opened, so for those into hockey, there's that.

So what about basketball? Yeah, not getting your blood bubbling that they're locked out?

I'm sure there are those diehard fans that are missing the sport and will miss watching the season from November through April, but when is the NBA our primary focus at this time of the year anyways? Most NBA fans I know are fans of one of the above sports more. I haven't heard much complaining about the NBA getting locked out, potentially for an entire season.

I also got a couple gambling friends who will be missing NBA if it's not in session, especially for the day-to-day fix that NBA feeds for gamblers. Look at it as a way to save some money, gents.

I don't mind a shortened season (50 games like 1998-99), since it will make the regular season games mean more. I would be disappointed if the season was cancelled, but my expectation of the season being done for is making it easier to deal with that possibility.

When the dark days of sports are accompanied by the dark days of winter in February and the Packers finish repeating as NFL champions, that's when most of us will notice the lull in the sports world and the sports depression will set in. If you're an NBA fan, I predict this is when the lack of NBA will affect you the most.

In the meantime, enjoy the best sports month of the year in the best weather month of the year.

Go Niners and Illini.

Breaking Good: Recent Records That Will Be Hard to Beat

As a frequent watcher of sporting events, one of the main topics that comes up on a continual basis is records/milestones that will never be broken or achieved. Each time, the same records are trotted out as unbreakable and are usually reflective of different eras of the sport of which they speak. Records like Cy Young's career win total or Wilt Chamberlain's numerous records (notably points in a game and points per game in a season) are just some of these records that will never be sniffed upon anytime soon, yet alone broken.

I decided I would compile some milestones or benchmarks in particular sports (whether it be a season or career) that have been set in the past 10-20 years that we will never see in the next 10-20 years (or perhaps ever), based on how each particular game is evolving. For example's sake, I'm going to focus on the sports that I know: NFL, MLB and NBA.

NFL records that will not be broken any time soon (in a 16 game regular season format):

Tomlinson's 31 TDs in 2006: Even though this record was broken several times in a 3-4 year span before this, I believe this record will stand the test of time. The way teams are going towards running backs by committee, there is no need for a guy to carry the ball as much as LT did that year.

No one (not even Jenn Sterger) will touch Brett Favre's small....err, large records

Favre's 299 games in a row as starting QB: I assume this number includes playoffs - I saw it as this on the nfl.com page. With the concussion rule the way it is now (where they will make sure players cannot play if signs of a concussion are apparent), I don't see a QB (or any position for that matter) making it through 18+ seasons worth of games without missing a game. Peyton is the closest, but he still has over 5 years to go and may even miss Week 1 of this year. Of Favre's numerous accolades, this one should stand the test of time for the longest. (Note: NFL.com has the record wrong - my partner in crime Tim found the number to be 297 regular season games).

Jerry Rice's 1549 catches in a career: With all of his down years at the end weighing down his career average, he still averaged 75 catches a year in his career. Even if he didn't play an unbelievable 20 years in the league and ended it about 5 years earlier, many of his records would still be untouchable. A 22 year old receiver entering the league would need to average just under 100 catches a season for 16 seasons to get this record. It's just not gonna happen. Rice has so many unbreakable records to speak of, but this is the one I wanted to highlight.

Marvin Harrison - 143 catches in 2002: Never mind that this record is 20 higher than its second place finisher, the best offenses these days feature QBs who spread the ball all over the field, not to just one primary guy. Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis and New England seem to have different receivers leading the team in catches/yards from game to game. There really isn't anyone currently capable of grabbing an average of 9 catches per game that it would take to beat this record.


MLB records/milestones that are unreachable in today's era

Cal Ripken's games streak: This one is fairly obviously, but no current player (nor will any future player) have the desire to play 16-17 years worth of games in a row. The best players need a handful of games off in a year now. With salaries the way they are, managers have no incentive to play a superstar through an injury that may require a few days of rest. Ripken's record is safe.

Just like the jersey he sports here, Randy Johnson's 300K seasons are a thing of the past.

300Ks in a season for a pitcher: The last pitchers to achieve 300+Ks were Schilling and Randy Johnson for the 2002 D-Backs. Johnson topped the duo with 334, which was only the fourth highest total of his career. For a starter to get that many in a 5-man rotation (33-35 starts considering some rotations skip the 5th starters on days of), a pitcher needs to average 10Ks per game. These days, 10Ks is considered a great game - so to expect someone to average that (or even 9Ks per game) in the Pitch Count era is far-fetched.

60 Home Runs in a season: Unless another cheater era begins, I see Jose Bautista's number from last year (54) to be about the ceiling for home run hitters. Since the baseball drug testing began, home run numbers have gone down. There are some pitcher friendly parks being built these days (Petco comes to mind), but much of it has to do with normal-strength hitters hitting against normal-strength pitchers.

Ichiro's 262 hits in a season (2004): Considering that Ichiro is the only current player with a season in the top 80 of hits in a season (he has 4 of the top 80 hit seasons of all time), there doesn't appear to be anyone on the horizon that could sniff this record. Juan Pierre (2004) and Michael Young (2005) are the closest active players to this record when they got 221 hits in their respective seasons.

NBA Records/Milestones that are out of reach

Jordan's 30 points per game for a career:  If you start your career with a couple of "sub-par" (when compared to Jordan's average) 22/game seasons, you have some major work to do. Jordan's average would have been higher had it not been for his years with the Wizards, which just goes to show you how dominant he was.

No one will get to 80+ points again any time soon. B-Bo knows this.

80 points in a game: Kobe achieved this back in 2006 (81 points to be exact), making him the first player since Wilt's 100 points to break the 80 point barrier. Not only do you have to be a tremendous ball hog to get this record, but you have to be a ball hog that can actually shoot well. Also, you have to be in a tight game where you won't be sat in the last 5-6 minutes of a game. Bryant's Lakers were trailing by double digits for the middle part of the game against the Raptors before pulling away in the 4th quarter. Someone like Carmelo has the best chance of getting this achievement.

Bulls' 72 wins in 1995-96: Ok, so none of these records have been team records thus far. I figured I'd throw in the one record that has been set recently that will not be beat in our lifetimes. For teams to actually get this record, they actually have to want to get this record. This means playing your starters (who have to be the elite of the elite) throughout the season without much rest. Once teams clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs, there's very little incentive for the top players to continue to play 35-40 mins/game unless there's particular bonuses attached to their contract relating to individual marks. And by the time home court is clinched throughout a year, teams are well past the 10 loss mark. I don't see this one being touched.


I'm sure there's other records I'm neglecting, but these ones come to mind as recent records/milestones that seem untouchable based on how their respective sports are evolving. If there's any recent records or milestones that are untouchable, please share your thoughts.

Fame of the Game

Much like politics with "Follow the Money", all one needs to do is to "Follow the Hall of Famers" to see what teams have a chance to win the championship.

Besides being in an NBA Finals matchup for the 2nd time in the past 6 years, what else do the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have in common? They both have at least 2 future Hall of Famers.

According to data presented by basketball-reference.com, Dwyane Wade and Lebron James (both at 99% odds) as well as Dirk Nowitzki (95%) and Jason Kidd (90%) are likely Hall of Famers based on a probability formula of who will likely be in the Hall of Fame (not who deserves to be in it). Based on this, Chris Bosh has a 53% chance of making the Hall (likely to increase if the Heat become the dynasty they expect to become).

Why mention the obvious Hall-of-Fame angle, you ask? Well, I dug up the champions that have hoisted the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy since I was born (I'm 28, do the math). And I found out some things I already knew and some that I did not.

(1) Based on current players already in the hall and the basketball-reference article, 26 of 28 teams who have won the title have had 2 Hall-of-Fame worthy players on their team, with 11 of 28 teams having at least 3 Hall of Famers. The 1993-94 Rockets (Hakeem) and 2003-04 Pistons (no hall of famers) were the exception to the rule.

(2) Based on the list I am posting below, one could argue that the only team that was led by a point guard to a title in this span was Detroit in 1989 and 1990 (by Isiah Thomas). Otherwise, most of the teams had an inside presence (center or power forward) and/or a shooting guard that were arguably the best players on their teams.

Year	Champion	Hall of Famer 1	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 2	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 3	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 4	Position	Hall of Famer 5	Position
1983	76ers	Moses Malone	Center	Julius Erving	Small Forward
1984	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard
1985	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Guard	James Worthy	Forward	Bob McAdoo	Forward
1986	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard	Bill Walton	Forward/Center
1987	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1988	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1989	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Adrian Dantley	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1990	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard
1991	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1992	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1993	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1994	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center
1995	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center	Clyde Drexler	Shooting Guard
1996	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1997	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center
1998	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1999	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	David Robinson	Center
2000	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2001	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2002	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2003	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2004	Pistons	None**
2005	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2006	Heat	Dwyane Wade	Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2007	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2008	Celtics	Kevin Garnett	Forward	Ray Allen	Guard	Paul Pierce	Guard
2009	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
2010	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
Chances	*As of 5/30/2011	Gasol has 60% of HOF,	according to basketball-reference.com
		Parker has 57% of HOF
	** Chauncey Billups -	best chances of making it - 21%

This somewhat references my last article that states that Derrick Rose needs another high caliber player next to him that can be a difference maker. The previous article never touched base on the fact that it'd likely need to be another likely perennial All-Star/potential Hall of Famer like Rose that would have to be the compliment. Outside of a trade for Howard, I don't see a potential Hall of Famer going to the Bulls this offseason (player lockout be damned).

Using this formula as a gambler, it'd be wise to look at each team and see which teams have 2 or more future Hall-of-Famers and make future bets based on this. Any teams with 1 or less Hall-worthy players should not be considered reasonable bets. Bet on the long-shots at your own risk (especially in the NBA, where only 9 different franchises have won titles in the past 30 years).

As far as the NBA Finals for 2011 is concerned, I expect this to be a highly competitive series in Heat/Mavs II. Only 4 players (Dirk, Wade, Haslem and Jason Terry) remain from the 2006 series, which doesn't seem like a lot for a rematch. That shouldn't make the series any less entertaining.

Dirk enters this Finals on a roll that no one has ever seen from him before. He and LeBron have clearly been the best players in the postseason, which explains why their respective teams advanced to the final series of the season.

Unfortunately for Bulls fans who are bitter about the series loss to the Heat and to NBA fans who just flat out hate the Heat (you can't spell H-E-A-T without HATE, after all), I believe that the Heat are taking this series. Both teams are capable of winning games on the road (each team shared NBA best road records of 28-13), and I think each team will win at least a road game in the series. I flipped between Heat in 6 and in 7, but I'll go with my original choice and say Heat in 6.

Whatever the result, you can add 2011 to the Facts of NBA Life - another team with 2+ HOFers will win the title to make it 27 of 29.

Paging Gar Forman - your move.