Not sure how many of you rely on the family of sports sites with "reference" in the title (baseball-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, etc.) for information. Myself, I love them all. I've been trying to use them more with my gambling exploits to find edges on matchups.
One stat that I'm going to look at for the second half of the baseball season is how important overall run differential is. Baseball-reference.com uses a Pythagorean formula for figuring out what a team's record "should" be based on a team's run differential throughout a season.
For a more detailed formula on it, check it out here.
The idea of this formula was proposed by Bill James, who many sports nerds know as the mind behind Sabermetrics in baseball. It takes into account the perceived luck a team may be having (or not having). Some folks believe that winning by 1 or 2 runs is a thing that takes skill, but it's usually something that's supposed to even out over time. A team that wins consistently by larger margins is going to have a better chance of winning more games than a team that wins by a smaller amount for the margin of error involved.
I took a look at where each team who made/won a World Series since 1995 (the year wild cards were first used) ranked with this run differential stat to see what could be made of it, if anything. I also looked to see how far down each list you would have to go to find the worst team to make the playoffs:
| Year |
WS Winner
(Pythagorean Rank) |
WS Loser (PR) |
Lowest Ranked
Playoff |
Top Team PR |
Notable Teams
PR records |
|
| 2011 |
Stl (9th) |
Tex (3rd) |
9 |
Phil 103-59 |
|
30 teams |
| 2010 |
SF (4th) |
Tex (8th) |
8 |
NYY 97-65 |
|
30 teams |
| 2009 |
NYY (2nd) |
Phil (5th) |
11 |
LAD 99-63 |
|
30 teams |
| 2008 |
Phil (3rd) |
TB (5th) |
12 |
Cubs 98-63 |
|
30 teams |
| 2007 |
Bos (1st) |
Col (4th) |
16 |
Bos 101-61 |
Ariz 79-83 (div
winner) |
30 teams |
| 2006 |
StL (16th) |
Det (T 1st) |
16 |
NYY/Det 95-67 |
|
30 teams |
| 2005 |
ChW (5th) |
Hou (7th) |
9 |
StL 98-64 |
|
30 teams |
| 2004 |
Bos (2nd) |
StL (1st) |
10 |
StL 100-62 |
|
30 teams |
| 2003 |
Fla (11th) |
NYY (2nd) |
14 |
Sea 97-65 |
|
30 teams |
| 2002 |
Ana (1st) |
SF (4th) |
12 |
Ana 101-61 |
|
30 teams |
| 2001 |
Ariz (3rd) |
NYY (5th) |
9 |
Sea 109-53 |
|
30 teams |
| 2000 |
NYY (13th) |
NYM (8th) |
13 |
SF (97-65) |
|
30 teams |
| 1999 |
NYY (3rd) |
Atl (2nd) |
9 |
Ariz (102-60) |
|
30 teams |
| 1998 |
NYY (1st) |
SD (5th) |
11 |
NYY (108-54) |
|
30 teams |
| 1997 |
Fla (7th) |
Cle (9th) |
12 |
Atl (103-59) |
SF 80-82 (div winner) |
28 teams |
| 1996 |
NYY (8th) |
Atl (2nd) |
11 |
Cle (96-65) |
|
28 teams |
| 1995 |
Atl (2nd) |
Cle (1st) |
9 |
Cle (93-51) |
|
28 teams |
In the 17 World Series since the Wild Card format began, we can make note that the team who topped the run differential (Pythagorean formula) made the World Series in only 6 of 17 World Series, winning 3 of them). The 2nd ranked team has the exact same stats, winning 3 of the 6 World Series they have appeared in. A #1 vs #2 matchup has only happened twice, although in some cases it is not possible if the top 2 teams are from the same league.
Compare these numbers to the teams who barely sneak in or make it because they won a crappy division. Three teams with rankings in the double digits won the World Series, meaning that they made the most of making the playoffs. However, both teams that have entered the playoffs with a losing record (according to their PR) failed to make the World Series.
It should be noted that 24 of 34 teams who made the World Series in this time did finish in the Top 5 in PR record, so there is something to this - if you were a good team that won by a higher margin than other teams in a 162 game sample, then odds give you a better chance to succeed on average. In a 5 or 7 game series, crazy stuff can happen, so the occasional middle-of-the-road team who is lucky enough to make the playoffs will win it all (i.e. 2006 Cardinals, who finished 82-79 en route to having the worst winning percentage of any team to win a World Series).
2012
Using this year's statistics through July 4th, we can see where teams fit into this formula and what teams may be facing a regression and what teams could expect to have better records if their current numbers hold up for the second half of the season. I'll note the teams whose records would be 3+ games better or worse based on their perceived luck so far (according to the Pythagorean record) and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Colorado & Seattle should have 4 more wins than they actually do, but neither has a legitimate shot at the playoffs at this point.
Notable Teams That Should Improve (Records as of July 4)
Boston (Actual Record 42-40, 7 GB; PR 46-36) - Boston's offense cannot be ignored and would likely need to be the reason for Boston to make a run (none of their starters have ERAs below 4.00). If their pitching staff improves in the second half, it wouldn't be shocking to see them as one of the two Wild Cards.
St Louis (Actual 43-39, 2.5 GB; PR 47-35) - Like Boston, St Louis has been the victim of their pitching staff. The absence of Pujols hasn't hurt the Cardinals' offense at all, and I believe they can (and will) win the NL Central by year's end, although I'm in the camp that Lynn has probably peaked this year. Somehow, someway, I say they win the NL Central.
Philadelphia (Actual 37-46, 12 GB; PR 40-43) - Main reason that I even mention the Phillies is that their pitching always gives them a chance. The problem is that their staff isn't quite what it was last year, especially with Halladay on the shelf. Even though their record should only be 3 games better, it would be good enough for 8 games back in the division if this were the record to be used. It's unlikely they will overtake all 4 teams in the division to win it, but they could catch fire and be the second Wild Card
White Sox (Actual 44-37, first place; PR 47-34) - This shocked me, and in a good way. Their run differential indicates that the start of their season is legitimate and could actually be better. This may have been inflated from Tuesday's 19-2 romping of Texas, but nevertheless, the stats say the Sox are for real. Real enough to be considered a World Series contender. Their PR of 47-34 is tied for 2nd in the majors with the Yankees.
Notable Teams That Should Decline
Miami (Actual 39-42, 9 GB; PR 34-47) - Many think that Miami has underachieved so far this year (and you could make a case for that given their talent - I had them winning the World Series at the start of the year), but the numbers tell a different story. They are fortunate to be "only" 9 back and will likely tail further down if they continue with their current run differential.
San Fran (Actual 45-37, 0.5 GB; PR 42-40) - A team like San Fran is predicated on winning low scoring games, which obviously means they won't outscore their opponents by a high margin more often than not. If they can manage to continue doing so, then they could be one of those teams that enters the playoffs on the lower end of run differential and have a good chance to win short series simply on the strength of their rotation.
Baltimore (Actual 44-37, 5 GB; PR 38-43) - Right now, Baltimore would be the second Wild Card team. They have had the most luck, according to run differential, bettering what their actual record should be by 6 full games. If that corrects itself in the second half, then Baltimore will likely be facing a record along the lines of 82-83 wins - not bad for a team that's sucked so bad lately, but not good enough to make the playoffs.
Cleveland (Actual 42-39, 2 GB; PR 38-43) - I don't see Cleveland holding up in the second half of the year. I could see them fading to as low as fourth in the division.
