7/29/2012

A Francisco Treat: Why White Sox Fans Should be Somewhat Optimistic about Our Newest Hurler

Can he revive his career, even briefly, as others below did?
Leery? Ah, no....well, maybe.

While enjoying some beverages on the roof last night, I was told that Francisco Liriano was traded to the White Sox. The person who brought me the news was stoked that we picked up the left-hander from the Twins. I was hoping that I misheard him and we traded for the 2006 version of Liriano, who went 12-3 w/ 144 strikeouts and 32 walks in just 121 innings while posting a 2.13 ERA. Since then, he has been up and down and for the most part, quite average. The past year and a half has been brutal for Liriano: 5.18 ERA, 130 walks allowed in 234+ innings, 12-20 record. You can easily see why I might be skeptical of this trade.

Granted, I happened to attend a game last year in which Liriano threw a no-hitter, as I noted in my blog here: click here fools. However, even that wasn't a pretty affair for the southpaw, as shown by his 6 walks and only 2 strikeouts. In fact, before this no-no, there was question as to whether Liriano was going to stay in the rotation.

However, after a night's sleep, I started to see the silver lining in the trade, but it has little to do with Liriano himself. What suddenly turned me from a skeptic into a big fan of the trade? Why, it would be the pitching coach - Don Cooper.

Don Cooper has a gift in briefly reviving the careers of mediocre and under-performing pitchers - I emphasize briefly because the guys below have shown to have one season of moderate-to-All-Star level brilliance, only to regress a year or two later. Here's a few guys who have joined the White Sox as underachievers and turned their careers around (at least for a season):

(Note: I'm not mentioning some guys who had extended runs of success before the White Sox - i.e. David Wells. One guy on this list may not qualify based on this criteria, but f it, it's my blog and I'll be hypocritical if I want to.)

Poster boy of what pitching under Cooper can do for a pitcher
Esteban Loaiza - Before joining the White Sox in 2003, this journeyman pitcher had stints with three different teams. He had never posted an ERA below 4.13 and reached double digit wins just three times in his first 8 seasons, with a career high of 11. For one magical season with the White Sox, Loaiza went 21-9, notching a league-high 207 strike outs and a 3.7 K/BB ratio, all good enough to finish runner-up in the Cy Young vote.

However, his good fortune turned out to be a one-hit wonder. After posting a 4.86 ERA in 21 starts for the Sox in 2004, he was swapped at the trading deadline to the Yankees for the White Sox next reclamation project - Jose Contreras. Including the Yankees, he played on four teams in his last five seasons before rejoining the Sox for a brief stint in 2008. He was never able to come close to that Cy Young-worthy season. His career with the Sox (30-14, 3.65 ERA) versus his stints with seven other teams (96-100, 4.86 ERA) shows that we definitely got the best of him, and Don Cooper should be credited for that.

Sox fans were all smiles when Contreras had his great run in 2005-06
Jose Contreras - Much like Loaiza, the rebuilding of Contreras into an All-Star pitcher was short-lived, but  he pitched at his best when the White Sox needed him most. His best stretch came with the Sox in 2005 & 2006, where he went 28-16 combined with a 3.93 ERA. Between the end of 2005 and start of 2006, Contreras won 17 straight decisions. His performance down the stretch in 2005 helped the Pale Hose stave off the Cleveland Indians, who nearly stole the division from the White Sox after being over a dozen games back with two months to go.

His career eventually leveled out after this brief run of success. In his last six seasons, Contreras has split time with the White Sox, Rockies and Phillies, finding a new role as a reliever in the past three years in Philadelphia. His 30-40 record, 4.88 ERA and horrendous 1.44 WHIP during that time is a complete 180 from those two years. Again, I'd have to credit Cooper for this brief run of success.

Javier Vazquez - His tenure with Chicago was a turbulent one, but Vazquez did pitch one of his best seasons as a member of the White Sox, notching 213 strikeouts in 216+ innings, with nice ratios in K/BB (4.26) and WHIP (1.14) in 2007, his second season with the team. His 15 wins were by far the most on the team, who had one of their worst seasons in the past decade, limping to a 72-90 record. I believe we may have regarded this season as a better one had the rest of the team played as well as him.


Despite not being received well in Chicago, Vazquez had one great year w/ the White Sox
Unlike the others on this list, Vazquez was able to have another great season after his run with the South Siders was over, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting in 2009 after posting 238 Ks in 219 IPs with Atlanta, with career best ratios in K/BB (5.41) and WHIP (1.03). Granted, he was the most established starter before going to Coop's pitching staff, so his addition to this list may not be appropriate. Still, he was able to post a great season with the team, so some credit should go to Cooper.
Floyd's best season came in 2008, his second w/ the Sox

Gavin Floyd - After three forgettable years with the Phillies, Floyd came to the White Sox with tempered expectations. His 108+ innings pitched in those three years with Philadelphia were packaged with an eye-popping 84 ERs allowed (6.96 ERA). His first year with the Sox wasn't much better, but in year two (2008), something clicked for Floyd. His career year-to-date featured a 17-8 record, 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP came out of nowhere when compared to the 8-10, 6.30, 1.61 career numbers before the season started.

He's been roughly a .500 pitcher since then, never breaking the 4.00 ERA barrier in the past 3.5 seasons on the South Side. Many Sox fans wouldn't mind trying to trade him now. Luckily, his one good season in 2008 helped the White Sox make it to the playoffs for the first time since the World Series season.

Humber needs to channel some of his pitching skills from this day. He has been a wreck since the perfect game.
Philip Humber - Mr. Perfect has been far from it since his perfect game in April, but Humber was able to revive his career in 2011. After having issues staying in the majors and bouncing around three teams in five years, Humber had some decent numbers, maintaining a 2.83 K/BB ratio along w/ a 1.18 WHIP in 163 innings last year, good enough to get him a spot in the rotation for the 2012 season. However, his season has taken a turn for the worst since his perfecto on April 21 - his OPS against since then is a god-awful .890, which makes his 7.01 ERA in that 13 game span make all the more sense.

Some others...Edwin Jackson had a 30 game stint between 2010 and 2011 with Chicago, but didn't do anything overly impressive (11-9, 3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)...Todd Ritchie was the worst pitcher Kenny Williams has ever acquired. Cooper had no chance to polish that turd. All of us Sox fans have done our best to forget about him.

So if I had to guess based on our history of acquiring under-performing, mediocre pitchers, I wouldn't be surprised to see Liriano have a better finish to this season than his start (couldn't get much worse) and have a great season next year (maybe set a career high in innings, wins and ERA) and then tail off sometime in 2014.

Perhaps instead of being overly pessimistic or optimistic, I should instead have cautious optimism and hope that this trend is shown to be true.