4/29/2013

If You Can't Beat Him: What NBA Contenders Should Fear Regarding Lebron

When Lebron James joined the Heat in the summer of 2010, he joined a stable headlined by Dwyane Wade (who had been with the Heat for his whole career) and Chris Bosh. All of these guys came from the same NBA Draft (2003 - one of the best NBA Draft classes of all time) and all were free agents at the same time.

The Heat filled out their roster with the likes of Mike Bibby, Mike Miller and Juwon Howard, among others. In total, their playoff roster in 2010-11 featured seven players (out of 13 guys who played at least one game in the playoffs) who signed with the Heat in that offseason. They failed to win the NBA title that year, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. However, this model of "Let's Hitch Onto Lebron's Wagon" was just about to start.

Miami won the title in 2011-12 with two new free agent signings (Shane Battier & Ronnie Turiaf) and look poised to repeat while adding Ray Allen, Chris Andersen (aka Birdman) and Rashard Lewis to the roster.

Joining the King's Dynasty

There's a very interesting feature to almost of all these players who have become new to the Heat roster since Lebron signed - their willingness to play significantly less minutes than they are accustomed to in hopes of winning their first (or in some cases, their second) NBA titles.

In the 19 total seasons played by the 11 newly signed Heat in the past 3 years, a total of 14 of those seasons (over 70%) featured a player playing 15% less minutes than the player in question averaged in the previous five seasons before joining the Heat. The only season by a new Heat player where more minutes were played as a member of the Heat was Chris Bosh's first year with the team (seeing a slight bump from 36.3 minutes to 37.6). Otherwise, his other two seasons (and the other 16 combined seasons) featured a lower-than-average MPG total.

These 11 new players since Lebron joined have appeared in a total of six NBA Finals (3 titles), so many of them were willing to play less minutes in order to win their first (or second titles) championship largely on the back of Lebron.

For example, Shane Battier has prominently been a starter in the league, averaging 33.6 minutes per game in the 5 seasons before he became a member of the Heat for the 2010-11 season. In his two seasons with the Heat, he has averaged 23.1 and 24.8 minutes per game, or about an average of 30% less playing time than he was accustomed to before the Heat.

The 2012-13 additions (Allen, Andersen, Lewis) are all averaging more than a 20% decrease in minutes from their previous five seasons respectively, with Allen (from 35.7 minutes to 25.8) and Lewis (34.3 to 14.4) seeing the biggest drops in playing time.

So what do these numbers tell you below? 

Once veteran players have reached that point in their career where playing for a team that has never won or even sniffed an NBA crown, the ones who worry less about playing time (and money) will be the first ones in line to play with Lebron while he is at the peak of his game. You might see veterans doing this (playing less minutes and making less) with some other contending teams right now (the Thunder come to mind) - all for the chance to win that NBA title that has eluded them for most or all of their extended careers. Out of the 11 newbies who have joined the Heat in the past 3 years, only one of them (Ronnie Turiaf) has been in the league for a shorter time than Lebron.

To make a short story long, what many NBA teams have to worry about is talented veteran players (guys who could still log starter minutes if they wanted to) choosing to forego larger contracts and instead play with the Heat as long as Lebron is there.

As the years progress (and as long as Lebron remains with the Heat), this trend should only continue. The Heat will be a very attractive destination for these title-starved players, who likely have made their share of money and will sacrifice a little money earned and court minutes to win their first/next ring.

Averages 5 seasons before Heat/James 2010-11 % Decrease in Mins 2011-12 % Diff 2012-13 % Diff
Wade 37.89 37.14 0.02 33.2 0.12 34.7 0.08
Bosh 36.3 37.64 -0.04 35.2 0.03 33.2 0.09
Chalmers 28.6 22.55 0.21 28.5 0.00 26.9 0.06
Anthony 16.97 19.51 -0.15 21.1 -0.24 9.1 0.46
Bibby 33.58 26.45 0.21       
Miller 34.14 20.44 0.40 19.3 0.43 15.3 0.55
Jones 19.5 19.12 0.02 13.1 0.33 5.8 0.70
Haslem 31.8 26.54 0.17 24.8 0.22 18.9 0.41
Howard 21.9 10.39 0.53 6.8 0.68 7.3 0.67
Ilgauskas 27.2 15.9 0.42       
House 17.98 17.46 0.03       
Magloire 19.38 8.78 0.55
     
Battier 33.61     23.1 0.31 24.8 0.26
Turiaf 18.67     17 0.09    
Allen 35.68         25.8 0.28
Andersen 19.24         14.9 0.23
Lewis 34.25         14.4 0.58