MLB Predictions: A Look Back at the Bad (and some Good) Predictions from Spring Training

A Look Back at My 2013 Predictions

I'm always one to make sure I hold myself accountable for predictions - both good and bad - when it comes to offering them before a season starts. Like many of you, I tend to back up my opinion with cash money.

Maybe like many of you (perhaps some of you), I struggled throughout the 2013 season. I meant to keep accurate records of everything, but after a while of just sucking too much, too hard (the stuff they won't show on Cinemax), I just stopped keeping track of my daily progress.

One thing I can easily keep track of are the futures bets that I made (team wins, division winners, World Series champ bets). And much like my daily bets, success was hard to find. I made the following bets before and during the season:

Win Props

• Tampa Bay Over 86 (135 to win 100) - WIN
• Cleveland Over 77.5 (135 to win 100) - WIN
• Toronto Under 89 (105 to win 100) - WIN
• Houston Over 59.5 (100 to win 105) - LOSS
• San Diego Over 74.5 (100 to win 115)- WIN

Division Props

• Tampa to win AL East +255 (40 to win 108) - LOSS
• Philly to win NL East +330 (40 to win 132) - LOSS
• Cleveland to win AL Central +900 (15 to win 135) - LOSS
• Cleveland to win AL Central (Made few weeks into season) +1450 (15 to win 217.50) - LOSS
• San Diego to win NL West (Made in June) +3300 (15 to win 495) - LOSS

World Series Props

• Tampa to win WS +1500 (30 to win 450) - PENDING
• San Diego to win WS (bet made in June) +25000 (15 to win 3750) - LOSS 

Player Props

• Jay Bruce Most HRs in MLB +1900 (25 to win 475) - LOSS
• Yoenis Cespedes Most HRs in MLB +5000 (15 to win 750) - LOSS

As you can see, not much has gone right outside of my over/under bets for season wins (I went 4-1 there).

The link I introduced at the beginning highlights some of my thoughts before the season on things I know to be true about MLB. Going point-by-point:

1. Re: Spending big does not equal success. I was half right on the teams mentioned in this point. While the Dodgers' big spending eventually paid off in a big way, the Blue Jays never really got going this year. The big names signed and traded for have led to no improvement in the quality of the team (last year Toronto was 73-89; w/ two games left in 2013, they are 73-87).

2. Re: Due for some surprise teams. Again, I was half right here. I did predict Cleveland as a wild card team that would finish about 5-6 games behind Detroit (at the moment, 3 back, but obviously division is clinched). While not a wild card team just yet, I applaud myself for getting this pretty damn close at the very least. I missed on my other surprise team (San Diego), who looked like they may contend after having one of the best stretches in the MLB during June. However, once they realized they were San Diego (and once Los Angeles got their shit together), the wheels fell off. Thankfully, they rebounded enough in September to win me my futures bet on them. Pittsburgh is the ultimate surprise from the NL.

3. Re: 2-3 new division winners. As you saw above on the division bets, I didn't do a good job of predicting the new division winners. The only division I even got right was Detroit, which was the biggest chalk in baseball. There were actually four new division winners, none of which I got right (Boston, St. Louis, Atlanta, Los Angeles). 

4. Re: Tampa will surprise as usual. The jury is still out on this. We will see if they make one of the two wild card spots (tied w/ Cleveland and one ahead of Texas). With their solid pitching, I still believe they can win the World Series if they are able to extend their season into October.

Revised MLB Predictions (w/ 2 games left)

WC round

Pitt over Cincy; TB over Cle

Divisional Series Round

TB over Bos; Det over Oak

NL TBD: Whoever faces Atl over Atl; either LA over StL or StL over Pitt

League Championship Series: 

Det over TB; LA over StL or Pitt

World Series: Det over LA

Award Winners

AL MVP: Miggy

NL MVP: McCutchen

AL Cy: Scherzer

NL Cy: Kershaw (hey, I think I got one preseason pick right!)

AL Rookie of Year: Wil Myers (no true standouts in AL - Iglesias and Straily have a shot)

NL Rookie of Year:  Fernandez (Mia) (Puig had amazing start, but Fernandez dominated throughout entire season)

WS MVP: Victor Martinez

Random Baseball Musings on Trade Deadline 2013

I've had a little hiatus from writing, but some MLB stuff has me wanting to scribe today...

Dead Trade Winds

The trade deadline in baseball came and went without much fanfare. And that shouldn't be a surprise.

With so many teams still within sniffing distance of the playoffs (including division leaders, there are 15 teams within 5 games of a playoff spot entering today) and the extra wild card spot helping keep teams in the playoff race, there's not a lot of teams willing to pull the trigger on major moves. Some of these teams on the fringe are in the uneviable position of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?", not far enough out of the playoffs to concede anything but far enough where you're going to have to gain X number of games on a bunch of teams in the next two months.

Trading guys was no problem for the crap de la crap of baseball (Astros, Cubs, White Sox all trading top half of the rotation starters to contenders). Hell, we even got one of the best trades for names in MLB history, as the Orioles shipped Hoes (L.J. Hoes - he's real, trust me) to Houston for Bud (Bud Norris). The only other trade I can think of with better names was when Detroit traded Furbush to Seattle for Fister.

The End of Long Deals?

Two stories that have transpired from the past couple weeks could not have been timed out better. As A-Rod, among many others, awaits his suspension from MLB on his role with the Biogenesis facility that has trampled the season of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols went on the disabled list with a torn plantar facia, an injury that has been bothering him all season. According to many sources, it sounds as though he may be done for the year - just like his fellow Angels are (14 games back in AL West, 10 games back in Wild Card as of today).

The timing of this news has led a lot of sites to ask which of the contracts was worse - A-Rod or Albert? What the real question should be is: is this the end of long-term deals? It was going to be difficult for either of them to truly live up to the expectations of the size and length of their respective contracts (each got 10-year deals).

Here's what Albert has done since 2012 since becoming a member of the Angels. Those are not terrible stats, but when compared to the first 11 years of his career, there's a sharp decline in all of his power numbers (from 162 game averages of 43 home runs .328 average, .420 on base, .617 slugging with St. Louis to 31 home runs, .275 average, .338 on base, .485 slugging with the Angels.) In other words, he went from a Hall-of-Fame player to a guy that's above average, but definitely trending downwards (and in a hurry). There's still eight years on his mega-deal (10 years, 240M), so there's still time for him to turn things around (perhaps the injury has hurt his production?). But more likely, this is the sign of a player who is on the latter half of his career who can still produce at above-average player percentages. However, above-average is not what the Angels paid for.
 
As I said back in 2011, I thought it was smart for the Cardinals not to overpay for Albert. In my lifetime, they are as smart and steady of an organization as there has been in the majors, almost always in playoff contention. They made it to three World Series with Albert (won two), so they definitely got their money's worth and the very best of his contract. For this contract to be worth it for the Angels, I think they will need to win at least one World Series.

In that same article linked in the previous paragraph, I noted the stats of A-Rod since he signed his deal. Nothing has changed that would support this being a smart contract for the Yankees - a sub-par 2012 and a non-existent 2013 that is likely to end in suspension tell that story. They did win a title with him in 2009, which honestly seems decades ago with how much has happened in baseball and with A-Rod since then.

In the aftermath of these deals, I think you will see these big market teams be smarter in making these long-term deals. Should a long deal be made, it will be similar to the Dustin Pedroia extension with the Red Sox (a 6-year deal that signs him through his 38th birthday). Signing a 31-year-old guy to a ten-year-deal has proven to be a foolish move. The best of these guy's careers has already passed, and paying a 38/39 year-old Pujols close to $30M is going to be a disaster towards a team's payroll - the return on investment is going to be brutal for the Angels. If another 10-year deal is to be made, it will be for a guy in his mid-20s, which would be infinitely smarter than the Albert & A-Rod deals.

The Rise of the Small Payrolls

Ironically, it's contracts like these that have helped teams with smaller payrolls become contenders - as these teams have no chance in hell of ever being able to sign a guy to that long and rich of a contract.

A list of each team's payroll entering 2013 shows that you can contend in MLB with a lower payroll. Out of the six division leaders through July 30, there's more teams in the bottom half leading divisions than their higher spending bretheren:

AL West: Oakland (60M, 27th overall out of 30 teams)
AL East: Tampa Bay (57M, 28th)
AL Central: Detroit (148M, 5th)
AL Wild Cards & Contenders: Boston (150M, 4th), Baltimore (90M, 15th ), Cleveland (77M, 21st), Texas (112M, 12th)

NL West: Los Angeles (216M, 2nd)
NL East: Atlanta (89M, 16th)
NL Central: Pittsburgh (79M, 20th)
NL Wild Cards & Contenders: St. Louis (115M, 11th), Cincinnati (107M, 13th), Arizona (89M, 17th)

While not likely to happen, it is possible that none of the top-10 spending teams make the playoffs. That would require Detroit and Los Angeles (the NL version) to tail off in the last two months and for Boston to slip out of the Wild Card - all of which I don't see happening.  Best case scenario for the big spenders - three of the top 10 make it.

You may think some of these teams are flukes, but keep in mind that the Rays have been in the playoffs or on the fringe of it for a while now, Oakland won the division last year, and Pittsburgh has had strong first halves of seasons for three straight years now. These teams are all heading in the right direction and have solid player bases to remain contenders for the foreseeable future.

Argue all you want about MLB needing a salary cap, but I don't think that's accurate. In fact, it has forced these smaller teams to think outside the box, crunching numbers that were not studied decades ago in order to maximize the talent on its limited payroll (at least limited compared to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world).

I'll take my chances with the Rays, Pirates & Athletics' set-up for the next five years over what we have on both sides of Chicago.

Closer to Go(o)d: Some Surprising Stats on the Recent Use of Closers in Baseball

As I sit staring at my computer screen Sunday afternoon while Fernando Rodney did the best he could to blow a ninth-inning lead for the second straight day, I couldn't help but think that the Tampa Bay Rays would need to fix this problem in order to have any shot at winning the World Series. With how stubborn some managers can be to make change when the team is winning (the Rays have won 15 of their last 17 games), I was wondering how reluctant Joe Maddon might be to pull the struggling closer from his late-inning duties for someone else in the pen (maybe even through a trade).

To help me out with this (to see if Maddon might do this), I was surprised to see a certain trend that has developed in the past ten years when it comes to successful teams changing closers during the season. Dating back to the Marlins use of Ugueth Urbina (acquired via mid-season trade), there have been seven teams who have made the World Series while using a closer down the stretch and into the playoffs who was not the closer on the team to start the year. The other six new closers were with the team to start the year as middle relievers or set-up guys. Many of these guys had been with the organization for several years before even getting their first real chance to close.

Here's a list of the closer match-ups and career saves for the World Series winners and losers since 2001. The save total mentioned is how many career saves they had entering the season that they made the World Series:
 

		WS Winner		WS Loser
2012		Romo* (3)		Valverde (242)
2011		Motte* (3)		Feliz (42)
2010		Wilson (86)		Feliz (2)
2009		Rivera (482)		Lidge (164)
2008		Lidge (123)		Wheeler* (25)
2007		Papelbon (35)		Corpas* (0)
2006		Wainwright* (0)		Jones (226)
2005		Jenks* (0)		Lidge (30)
2004		Foulke (143)		Isringhausen (130)
2003		Urbina* (174)		Rivera (243)
2002		Percival (210)		Nen (271)
2001		Kim (15)		Rivera (165)
		*less regular season saves than main closer, but used as closer in playoffs

I was surprised to see a few things here:

1. The lack of experience that the closers who have won World Series this decade. Seven of the last eight World Series have had a closer who entered the season with 25 or less career saves.
2. The number of times a team has had the balls to change a closer during the season. For seven managers to do this in the midst of successful seasons is a testament to how good of managers some of these guys are. In many of these cases, the new closer likely saved the team from missing the postseason altogether.
3. Brad Lidge is tied with Mariano Rivera for most times being the closer of a World Series team this century.

Using this data, it makes me feel a lot better about my Tampa Bay Rays World Series bet, which I made before the season started. Well, assuming Maddon follows his own example from 2008, when he used Dan Wheeler to close down the stretch for a struggling/injured Troy Percival.

Closer to Another Change?

Another item that signals a potential change in closer for the Rays is their willingness over the last half decade to not rely on any particular closer for a multiple year period. I broke down the save leaders on each team from 2008 to 2012 to see how often, from year-to-year, teams had a shift in closers.

The Rays are among three teams who have had a different reliever lead the team in saves for each of the past five seasons. The others (Blue Jays and Nationals) have had far less success in this time period than the Rays (458 - 352 record, 56.5%) in this stretch.

In all, there have been 75 different relievers to lead a team in saves over the past five seasons. With 150 total team seasons played in this span for MLB's 30 teams, this means that the average closer has led his team in saves for two seasons (and since full-time closers always get the most saves on a team, you can argue that this is the lifespan of the average closer).

The breakdown of how many times these relievers led their respective teams in saves:

• Three closers have led a team in saves for all five years during this stretch (Jose Valverde, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street), all of whom have played for multiple teams during this stretch.
• Nine closers have led four years, including Kevin Gregg, who has led four different teams in saves during this time (the only player with this distinction).
• 13 closers have led three years - this is the most common length of a closer's career it seems.
• 10 closers have led two years.
• 40 closers have led a team in saves for only one season.

This data confirmed what I have learned to be true of closers. The Riveras of the world are few and far between, so never buy into the notion of a closer being an elite one until they have lasted at least 3 or 4 years in a closer's spot. Even then, many of these guys aren't the greatest closers, but rather perceived to be (the save stat is highly flawed, as just about any major league pitcher - closer or not - should be able to protect the leads required to qualify for a save). That's not to say that the idea of having a great closer is flawed - it helps tremendously to have a guy down the stretch of a close game who can blow guys away with a great heater and perhaps another great pitch or two. If I can find the time and a good site for this data, I would love to break down closer's save percentages when handed over a lead of just one run (as opposed to a two or three run lead).

Most closers have a short shelf-life for several reasons:

• Many times, relievers become relievers because they sucked as starting pitchers. Not too many pitchers actually get drafted as relievers when they come out of college. If they sucked as starting pitchers, they're likely to be relievers for the rest of their career should it be something they excel at - otherwise they won't last long in the big.
  
  In a typical good reliever's career, there will be a handful of seasons that aren't as good. Sometimes, these seasons are bad enough to prevent these guys from ever getting another closing gig. Or you may argue that some of these guys had fluke seasons during their brief success and their lack of talent eventually caught up to them when the league figured them out (like Shingo Takastu with the White Sox).
  
• In the case of some closers, especially the ones who have led a team in saves only once, they were the replacement for a closer who got hurt early in the season. Sometimes, these guys are able to handle the role well and last more than a couple seasons as closer for another team.
  
• Certain guys get pigeon-holed into specific roles that cannot be explained. A closer-in-waiting, who has better overall numbers and stuff than the guy closing, may never get a full-time chance to be closer if his manager prefers to stick with a guy he likes who might have more experience than these guys "in waiting". 

For my bet's sake, here's to hoping that Maddon will not fall back on the recent success that the Rays have had (they may not be as lucky to survive in the playoffs if Rodney keeps allowing all these base runners) and opts to replace the struggling closer with someone else, perhaps a guy like Jake McGee, who has a great K/9 (11.8), K/BB (5.13) and WHIP (0.93).

I'll take my chances with those numbers than with Rodney, who issues too many walks to be counted on to close out games long-term (an eye-popping 5.4 BB/9 & 1.35 WHIP this season, numbers which are more on par with his career numbers than last year's numbers of 1.8 BB/9 & 0.78 WHIP).

Oh yeah, and one more thing that would work perfect with McGee, at least when it comes to recent World Series trends: he has only 1 career save, earned earlier this season.

At the Quarter Pole - MLB So Far

While the All-Star game is when most baseball analysts start breaking down the baseball season so far and what is to come, but I like to break baseball up into quarters. Much like high school, except this class has way more fun numbers to play with. And gambling.

Quarters tend to give a decent (although not entirely accurate) model into how we should expect the season to play out. Here were the standings last year after May 20th. Bolded w/o italics indicates the eventual division champ; bolded w/ italics indicates Wild Card entry:

2012 MLB Standings after May 20th

Balt - 27-15
TB - 25-17
Tor - 23-19
NYY - 21-20
Bost - 20-21

Cle 23-18
CWS - 21-21
Det - 20-21
KC - 16-24
Min - 14-27

Tex - 26-16
Oak - 21-21
Sea - 19-24
LAA - 18-24

Atl - 26-16
Wash - 24-17
NYM - 22-19
Mia - 22-19
Phil - 21-21

Stl - 22-19
Cin - 21-19
Pit - 19-22
Hou - 18-23
Mil - 17-24
Cubs - 15-26

LA - 28-13
SF - 21-20
Ari - 19-23
SD - 16-26
Col - 15-25

The most fascinating stuff about these standings? Two things:

1. None of the teams that eventually won the division were leading at this point of the year, although 4 of the 6 that were leading did end up with all of the 4 wild card entries into the playoffs. Three of the eventual division champs overcame a 5+ game deficit with the division leader at this juncture.
2. Four of the six current division leaders were also the leaders at this point last year. Arizona and Boston are the only differences.

So for those of you penciling in all the division winners to hold on, remember that the season in long and that none of the division winners last year at this point held on to win the division. I'm willing to bet that at least one of the current division leaders is destined to be at the top when the season ends.

Current division leaders: NYY (0.5 games up); Cleveland (2 games up); Texas (6.5 games up); Atlanta (2.5 games up); St. Louis (2.5 games up); Arizona (1 game up). My guess? Texas & Atlanta hold up.

As was stated in my predictions blog, I made several bets for the 2013 season. Here's the predictions blog for reference  and also my official bets for 2013 before the season began (note: I added  $15 more to my Indians division bet at +1450 a few weeks ago). Let's have some fun with these:

• Raise your hand if you bet on Houston to win over 59.5 games *raises hand in disgust, in process of flushing a Benjamin in the toilet*. Currently, Houston is 12-32. In order to reach 60 wins, they need to go 48-70 down the stretch. I don't feel good about the start, but I have to remember that only requires a 40.6% win percentage down the stretch. I put my chances of winning this bet at around 30%.
• I laid heavy juice on Tampa Bay (Over 86) & Cleveland (Over 77.5) and also threw a little cash on each to win their divisions. So far, Tampa is right around the pace required (23-20 record ~ 86.65 wins with the current percentage), while Cleveland is two clear of the rest of the AL Central, sitting pretty at 25-17. Tampa needs to go 64-55 to win my bet, while Cleveland can go 53-67 and still win me my wins bet. I believe Tampa's best ball is coming - their ERA (4.42) will only get better. Even with a slight regression in hitting, I think Tampa still has a good/great chance of winning this division. Obviously I feel better about Cleveland's chances to cash the win bet at the moment, but the Indians have blown good starts the past few years, so I'm not holding my breath. Still though, a nice start. I put my chances of winning the Tampa wins bet at around 54%; division bet at 30%. Meanwhile, I put my chances of winning Cleveland wins bet at around 70%; division bet at 35%. Detroit should still win the division, but Cleveland's bats could carry them to division crown.
• San Diego was my other over bet (74.5 wins). A slow start had me doubting this bet, but a resurgence in the offense has increase my confidence in this ten-fold (14-8 in their last 22 games). They may only be 20-23, but I do think San Diego has a great shot to be a sleeper team to make the Wild Card. In order to reach the wins total, the Padres need to go 55-64 down the stretch. I believe they will crack 80 wins and contend for a Wild Card, so my confidence in this bet is at 70%
• My only under bet was the Blue Jays going under 89 wins. A 17-26 starts means that Toronto would need to go 73-46 (61%) while playing in baseball's best division. Needless to say, I put my chances of winning this bet at 85% (since anything can happen, but I feel really good about this).
• Other division bet I made was on the Phillies, who sport a 21-23 record and sit 4.5 games back of the Braves. I don't give the Phils much better than a 15-20% chance to win this.
• Player props - Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes most HRs in MLB. It took Bruce forever to hit a home run (now he has 5), while Cespedes just nailed his 8th. They both trail Justin Upton (14) by a significant amount. However, a little streak for either of these guys can put them right in it. My chance of winning either of these bets is about 2-3%.

B-Bo's MLB Bets (Futures & Daily Bets)

Daily Bets (4-1 thru 4-7) - (16-20, -288.20)

4/1 (1-3, -$122)
NY/Bos Lester/Sabathia Under 8 (57/50) L - 9th inning Boston runs
Chi/KC Sale/Shields Under 7 (48/40) W - 1-0 Sale win
Phil/Atl Hamels (Philly) -110 (55/50) L - trailed throughout
Ariz/StL Kennedy/Wainwright Over 9 (50/50) L - narrow loss

4/2 (0-2, -137.30)
Balt/TB Hammel/Price Under 7 (61.50/50) L - McGee melts in 7th inning
Tor/Cle Dickey/Masterson Over 8.5 (75.80/65) L - no bullpen runs allowed


4/3 (3-2, 50.00 )
Tex/Hou Ogando/Humber Under 8.5 (69/60) - Astros shut out. Look to bet unders of teams coming off near perfect game/no hit bids
Chi/KC Peavy/Santana Over 7.5 (60/63) - Sox can't score w/o HR; too many runners left in scoring position in late innings
Det/Min Sanchez/Correia Over 8.5 (60/60.60) - Never had a chance
Wandy (Pitt) -133 (79.80/60) - Well-pitched game. Wandy a Cub killer
LA/SF Beckett/Lincecum Over 7 (61/50) - Strong offense vs starters. No more runs after that (5-3)

4/4 (5-1, 282.90 )
ChC/Pitt Wood (ChC) +130 (50/65)
ChC/Pitt Under 7 (40/40) - Wood pitched well; Marmol did what he could to blow it. Avoid Cubs games for most part!
KC/ChW Guthrie (KC) +114 (65/72.10) - Guthrie was sharp. Sox no HRs = Sox loss
SD/NYM Stults (SD) +136 (50/68) - Lots of LOBs, but SD never trailed. Held on in 9th.
Mia/Wash LeBlanc (Mia) +200 (40/80) - worth a shot. Mia got spanked.
Phil/Atl Lee (Phil) +113 (60/67.80) - might be the last time Lee gets + anything for a while. A gem.

4/5 (4-3, 96)
SD/Col Marquis (SD) +140 (60/84) - Not enough offense; 3rd inning error is the difference (3 unearned)
KC/Phil Davis (KC) +107 (60/64.20) - KC 13 unanswered runs after falling behind 4-0 early
Min/Balt Hendrix/Arrieta Under 9 (54/50) - Pretty much DOA in the mid-innings despite a pair of scoreless innings to start. Davis stays red hot to open the lead up for the Orioles.
Bos/Tor Doubront (Bos) +135 (60/81) - Never trailed. Decent bullpen work.
Mia/NYM Sanabia (Mia) +139 (60/83.40) - Bounced back nicely after getting swept. Almost blew 6-0 lead.
Mil/Ari Lohse (Mil) -131 (78.60/60) - 2 runs allowed on a wild pitch the difference. Crazy.
Sea/CHW Beaven/Quintana Over 8 (66/60) - Quintana implodes. League has caught up to him. Fade away.

4-6 (1-4, -215.30 )
Sea/Chi King Felix (Sea) -129 (90.30/70) - Windy day. King Felix threw one mistake and Rios made him pay.
Bos/Tor Lackey/Happ Under 9 - (60/61.80) - Great outing for Happ. Lackey got hurt, might be out for year. 
LAA/Texas Harrison (Tex) -124 (62/50) - Harrison roughed up in 1st. Bet never had a chance. 
SF/StL - Vogelsong/Miller Under 7 - (63/60) - Big 5th for StL is basically the difference. 

SD/Col  - Ross (SD)+129 - (60/77.40) - Garland pitched well in first start in two years. SD couldn't take advantage of bases loaded, no out in 4th.

4-7 (2-5, -242.20 )
ChW/Sea (Sale/Iwakuma) Under 7.5 - (69/60) - After rough first, both settled down, 4-3 in extras
Bos/Tor Lester +125 (60/75) - Total Red Sox domination. Least sweat bet so far this year
Wash/Cin Under 7 (Strasburg/Cueto) (72/60) - Both roughed up early. Teased a push, but lost in 6th.
TB/Cle Under 7 (Price/Masterson) (75/60) - Price got rocked. No shot.
StL/SF Under 6.5 (Wainright/Cain) (64.20/60) - 9 run fourth for StL - no shot.
Col/SD Over 10.5 (Chacin/Volquez) (66/60) - No help from SD. Col helped in late innings to no avail.
LAA  (Weaver) +129 vs Texas (Darvish) (100/129) - top half of first showed promise. After that, it was all Texas.

An Early Look at MLB & Teams Who I Have My Eye On

Here's a look at each team's odds to win their respective divisions, according to 5dimes.com. The teams I have bolded below are the teams I find to have the best value, not necessarily who I think will win the division.

Tampa - Ever since their surprise World Series appearance years ago, the Rays have been in the thick of the AL East race. Even when they trade away pieces that people think will end the Rays' run, Tampa keeps rolling. With all the years of sucktitude that they had, the Rays were able to stockpile a wealth of young talent, which allows them to make these moves. This is the toughest division in the majors to predict, especially now with all the talent that Toronto acquired, but out of all the teams, I think the Rays have the best value.

Kansas City - The Royals made some moves. Wait...the Royals...made....moves? A solid starting rotation that can eat innings (Ervin Santana, James Shields & Wade Davis join Jeremy Guthrie & Luke Hochevar). They have some guys who can rake (Butler's one of the most under-rated guys in the majors). It'll take a strong effort for any of these AL Central teams to take the division away from the Tigers, but if there is going to be a team who does it this year, I believe it'll be the Royals (not the White Sox).

Oakland - If you watched the way they ended the year last year, you'd be hard-pressed to tell me that they should be a 6/1 shot to win the division. This team improved every month of the year, with a miraculous comeback to take the division from the Texas Rangers on the last day of the season. Yoesnis Cespedes is a stud and should get better this year. And now with them having the Astros to whip around, there should be a good shot of Oakland getting in the 85-90 win range again.

St. Louis - Every year, the Cardinals are in the talk for the playoffs. Outside of the Yankees, the Cardinals are the team you associate with making the playoffs on a consistent basis and having a reasonable shot to win the World Series every year. I don't even need to know what offseason moves they made, because simply put, they always make the right moves. Letting Pujols go was the smart move. (an aside: Do you see how bad A-Rod looks at the end of his huge deal with the Yankees? That could very well be Phat Albert in about five years.) St. Louis isn't a huge underdog in this division, but they're doggish enough to have value. Wainwright is scheduled to start the year - Carpenter is scheduled to miss the entire year. That didn't seem to matter a couple years back when it was the reverse that happened as they won the World Series in dramatic fashion.

Philly - Last year's prohibitive favorite to dominate the NL East thanks to a stalwart pitching staff, the Phillies ended up underachieving to a level that only the Marlins and maybe the Red Sox could relate to. A pitching staff with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee can go far and do wonderful things together if they can stay healthy. With their increased age (Halladay will be turning 36 in May while Lee turns 35 in August), you can only hope they can pitch their elite-level 200+ innings. With Hamels in the mix, this will continue to be a devastating rotation. If they can get some production from some of their younger hitters (like Domonic Brown) and some of these older guys can find the fountain of youth or undetectable PEDs (I'm looking at you Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins & Chase Utley - a trio of guys who feel like have been with the team for 20 years together), they can easily contend again for the NL East crown.

Arizona - The Diamondbacks are a year removed from winning the division. While the Giants were busy winning their second World Series in three years and the Dodgers were spending money like Steinbrenners, the Diamondbacks made some rather curious moves, trading for Heath Bell (coming off a disastrous year) and trading Justin Upton in separate deals. However, like many of the other teams on this list, I like them for their pitching. Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill & Wade Miley are all capable of 200+ quality innings. Solid pitching can keep a team in contention till the very end, and I think Arizona is very capable of winning this division.


I'll be writing a blog in the next couple weeks with official predictions. I figured I'd get out of my lack-of-writing blues that seem to hit after the Super Bowl every year.

Happy Spring Training, y'all!

MLB   American League East Mon 4/1  1:05PM
New York Yankees	+175
Toronto Blue Jays	+185
Tampa Bay Rays	+340
Boston Red Sox	+600
Baltimore Orioles	+750

MLB   American League Central Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Detroit Tigers	-290
Chicago White Sox	+645
Kansas City Royals	+700
Cleveland Indians	+1000
Minnesota Twins	+2200

MLB   American League West Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Los Angeles Angels	-150
Texas Rangers	+190
Oakland Athletics	+600
Seattle Mariners	+1450
Houston Astros	+6000

MLB   National League East Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Washington Nationals	+110
Atlanta Braves	+225
Philadelphia Phillies	+250
New York Mets	+1700
Miami Marlins	+3300

MLB   National League Central Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Cincinnati Reds	-130
St. Louis Cardinals	+210
Milwaukee Brewers	+580
Pittsburgh Pirates	+1050
Chicago Cubs	+1800

MLB   National League West Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Los Angeles Dodgers	-110
San Francisco Giants	+230
Arizona Diamondbacks	+400
San Diego Padres	+1900
Colorado Rockies	+2500

The Wrong Remains the Same

Naturally, my 3rd attempt at a World Series is wrong. The Rays were the first team eliminated from the MLB playoffs a few days ago, with either the Tigers or Yankees soon to join them. If the Tigers (my AL team in the WS in my 2nd prediction) lose, make that 3 for 3 on failed World Series predictions.

When you're gonna be wrong, make sure you're really, really wrong.

Robin & Bat Men - The Surprise Hire on the South Side

The White Sox shocked everyone by hiring one of their former players as manager. Robin Ventura comes back to the South Side not only new to managing, but also a cherry when it comes to coaching. The shock of hiring him should begin and end with that fact.

Reinsdorf is not a fan of spending money on managers (i.e. hiring managers with experience), so anyone who has seen his history should know that Terry Francona (who would have likely commanded double what they were going to pay Ozzie) was never really a serious option.

I wish Ventura well, but he's gonna need some help. Paging crazy Kenny Williams signing/trade.

King Wrong

Aside from my World Series predictions, other things I've been wrong on lately:

• Detroit Lions - While I don't think they will win the NFC North, the Lions have shown to me that they are in it to win it (love me some cliches). Megatron's catch in triple coverage last week in their comeback victory against the Cowboys just goes to show you how unguardable he is. Best receiver in the league.
• San Francisco 49ers - I know it's still early, but the Niners are the only team in the NFL w/ a 2 game lead on everyone in its division. They have one of the best defenses in the league so far statistically, but their offense is horsecrap. It did shows some signs of life against the Eagles. I never would have guessed that Alex Smith would have engineered two 4th quarter comebacks for the season, yet alone back-to-back road games. Maybe there is something to Jim Harbaugh and molding quarterbacks. He's the best coach that Alex Smith has had in his career.
• Fantasy football - specifically my money leagues. In my three money leagues, I am sporting a combined 2-10 record, with my only two wins in the league that I am the commissioner. In one of the leagues, injuries have exposed lack of depth; the other 0-4 league shows mild promise, but I doubt it is any more salvageable than the other winless league. Looks like my energy of winning $ this year will come solely from my gambling pursuits.

Fools Gold Play of the Week - Week 5
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5) - So far, the theme for the Fools Gold pick has been spotting a road team (always a favorite) that has caught the public's eye as "The Team to Bet" for the week. This week, a road favorite has caught my attention all the same for this column, but for the opposite reason.

Every Sunday night or Monday morning, I always look at the next week's schedule of games and set my own lines before looking on 5dimes to see what gamblers have set the line at. Over the years, I have gotten sharp at getting close to every game on the schedule to within a point of the spread that ends up being released. The games I am far apart on the bookmakers, I will usually assess what caused the difference in line.

My line on the Bills/Eagles game had Buffalo as a 2 point favorite, so needless to say, I was shocked when the Eagles were a -2.5 point favorite in my book. Never before has there been a 1-3 team favorites to a 3-1 team when the 3-1 team is hosting, so my shock was justified in seeing the line.

However, after thinking about the Eagles' losses and actively watching two of them from beginning to end, I'm reminded of how talented the Eagles are and how close they were to being 4-0 (Vick injuries in week 2 and 3 and turnovers/missed kicks in week 4). This isn't to say that the Bills are push-overs, but I don't think their defense will be sharp enough to handle the Eagles plethora of weapons. You could say the same thing about the Patriots game, but if you watch that game, several of the interceptions were not really caused by the Bills defense but rather the Patriots receivers themselves.

I think the Eagles get back on track en route to getting back to a playoff caliber level. Eagles win by 10. This week's pick (and already booked): Philadelphia -2.5

Last week's result: Cincy covered the +3 spread in a straight-up victory of Buffalo

YTD: Fools Gold is sporting a 4-0 record.  I have bet on the last three games on 5dimes (2 spreads, 1 money line) and have profited $170.

Likely Week 5 Picks

Carolina +6.5/7 vs. New Orleans - Cam Newton has rejuvenated a Panthers offense that was completely anemic last year. So far, Carolina has went 3-0-1 against the spread (the only record gamblers care about), which shows me that Carolina is improving. I thought that the Bears' defense might cause him some problems last week, but was I wrong (the wrong theme continues). I think the Panthers will keep this close and may even pull off an upset. I'm hoping to catch this line at +7.

Atlanta +6/7 vs. Green Bay - I hope to get Atlanta at +7. Matt Ryan is money at home, so spotting him a touchdown sounds more insane than betting against the Packers at this point. Falcons are a different home team and will get some revenge for their embarrassing loss to the Packers in the playoffs in January

Detroit -5 vs. Chicago - Now that the Lions have the attention of the nation, it only makes sense that they make their first Monday Night appearance in eons this week. The Bears showed themselves to be solid against Matt Ryan in Week 1, but have been shredded up by Drew Brees (270 yards, 3 TDs), Aaron Rodgers (297 yards, 3 TDs) and Cam Newton (374 yards, 1 TD). I expect Stafford to continue what he's been doing with Calvin Johnson, who has destroyed all corners and safeties that have come his way.

Other bets I am considering: Indy -2.5; NYJ +9.5. No totals have caught my eye yet.

Gambling on NFL & NCAA so far:

Week 4	Week 5
NFL 3-5, -$75	NCAA 0-0
Totals 0-4, -$220	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-0	MLs 0-0
Spreads 3-1, $145	Spreads 0-0
YTD: 18-12-3, +$314	YTD: 8-12, -$325
Totals: 7-5-1, +$127	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-0, +$126	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 9-7-2, +81	Spreads: 8-6, +$65

As always, I recommend following my picks on twitter.com/brianbolek or @brianbolek

Enjoy this week's action. I haven't decided if I'm betting any NCAA yet. Last week I held off, in part to not liking much and in part to the Buddy thing.

Good luck to your fantasy teams, bets and most importantly, your REAL teams!

We're Talking Baseball: Excitement, Disrespect & Playoff Predictions

Random baseball thoughts:

Blowing the Load

If baseball's amazing action yesterday were analogized in sexual terms, one might say that MLB blew it all out on the foreplay part.

What a kickoff to the baseball playoffs. It was the most excited I've been watching baseball since 2005. Unfortunately, I don't see there being an opportunity to go up from here.

Sure, there will be moments that stick out. Perhaps another walk-off home run to decide a game or a great catch at the wall that prevents a bases-clearing double in the late innings could capture our attentions briefly.

To get that kind of excitement from many different games at once, however, will be nearly impossible to match.

Tampa Bay Rons

Putting baseball in a political spectrum, Tampa Bay reminds me much of Ron Paul. All of the semantics surrounding their entry into the playoffs is all about the Red Sox collapse, not Tampa Bay's strong push to make it to this point. This is much like anytime Dr. Paul is mentioned (or more appropriately, not mentioned) in an article addressing percentages in the polls.

The Cardinals get more credit for their comeback to make the playoffs than the Rays do - which has to do with the news market having an interest in the Cardinals (particularly their history) and very little interest in a team lucky to draw 15,000 fans to a game. Also, it helps when the team that collapsed is based in the Northeast, where much of the mainstream media are based - and of course, another team that is rich in history throughout the history of baseball.

If the Rays win the World Series, Sportscenter may promote it as "Phillies Collapse" rather than promoting the victors. I could see the same for Ron Paul if he were lucky enough to get put on the Republican ticket - "Obama Falters in Re-Election Bid".

Rooting Interest

Speaking of the Rays, I definitely have a financial stake in rooting for them to win it all. On Tuesday when they were tied with the Red Sox, my site had the Rays' odds of winning the WS at 18/1, so I threw 20 on it.

In the other AL series, I am hoping that the Tigers can pull it out. My last live bet on BookMaker is a $10 bet to win the World Series at 40/1.

The NL team with the best odds (best being relative on value) on 5dimes is the Brewers, coming in at 8/1. I am debating a small bet on them as well.

What's Your Fantasy?

Baseball isn't as sexy of a sport for me to play in the fantasy sports realm of life. This was my first year of the past 4 where I didn't play a money league.

However, I still do take some pride in my teams, and I'll take any championship that I can. Even if it means when I didn't really win it, per se. I finished a league with the top seed and had my pitching carry me to a 6-6 tie. However, since I held the top seed and that's the first tiebreaker, I took down the crown. My other leagues lent themselves to average finishes (6 of 12 and 7 of 10), so I really wanted this one bad.

Analyzing My Preseason Picks/Making New Ones

Back in March, I wrote a piece on my predictions for the MLB season, foolishly selecting the White Sox losing to the Phillies in the Fall Classic. While I was way off on half of that, I think the second of that is looking pretty strong entering October.

Division predictions that went well: Brewers and Rangers were my only correct predictions.
Division predictions that faded during the second half: The Giants could never muster any offense to support their strong staff and the Red Sox did their best to mirror the beginning and end of their season.
Division predictions that never had a chance: The Twins (last place finish) and Braves (distant second place) were easily bested.
Wild cards: White Sox (oooooops) and Phillies (tried being cute and having them win the World Series after winning the wild card).

New prediction for the World Series (part 3): Phillies over Rays
My first prediction bombed. My midseason prediction (Phils over Tigers) could very well happen. I just like the Rays' pitching over the other teams left in the AL.

Even though I'd rather have one of my bets come in, I don't see Philly's staff being bested. Pitching carries teams in the postseason.

NFL/College blog to come tomorrow.

Have a good evening everyone.