NFL Division by Division - Odds, Teams w/ Value & Pick

For about a month or so now, the wagering site 5dimes has had a variety of NFL odds up, including all of the divisions. If there's a story to be told from the division odds, it's that there is just as many hotly contested divisions as there is run-away winners (although we know that there's a good chance that one or two of these big favorites bombs out).

I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.

Odds as of 8/3/13

NFC North

GB -155
Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625


Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.


Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.

I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).

NFC East

NYG +215
Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425


Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.


Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.

NFC West

SF -105
Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400

Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.

Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?

NFC South

Atl +150
NO +170
TB +525
Car +650

Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.

Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.

AFC North

Pitt +170
Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770

Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?

1. Defense - Geno Atkins has Defensive Player of the Year potential while the defense as a whole has top 3 potential. Atkins anchors the best defensive line in the division, a line which includes Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (6 sacks). They bring back a secondary that allowed the 7th-least passing yards. Their linebacking core added James Harrison, who has lost a step but could be a veteran presence that pushes the defense to greater success.
2. Weakened rivals - Baltimore will miss the leadership of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed on defense. Joe Flacco will desperately miss the absence of Anquan Boldin & Dennis Pitta (Boldin to free agency, Pitta to injury). These two guys caught half of Flacco's 22 passing TDs in the regular season and 7 of his 11 TDs in the postseason. Torrey Smith is a deep threat, but is he capable of making up for the missing Boldin/Pitta connections? Jacoby Jones had a good Super Bowl, but overall not a guy you want as your #2. And while many expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, I'm not sold on their offense being able to do its share to win this division. Last year, they were in the bottom third in yards/play, thanks in large part to a 3.7 yards/carry. Will Le'Veon Bell help out? Perhaps, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to help.
3. Offense upgrades through the draft - Tyler Eifert will give Andy Dalton another tight end to throw it to (Jermaine Gresham being the other), which should help open up the field for A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has a chance to take the running back reigns from Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Either way, both moves add much-needed depth to the offense.

Side note - it seems very weird to see Cleveland at such low odds (for them anyways), especially when their O/U is projected for only 6. I have Cleveland as another of my surprise teams (playoffs potentially), taking into mind the Norv Turner factor. He may have sucked ass as coach, but I think there can be a Wade Philips-like effect. Philips sucked as coach, but like Turner, has always thrived in a coordinator role. Take a look at the AFC and try to find me surefire picks for the playoffs. Outside of New England & Denver in weaker divisions, you can't.

AFC East

NE -425
Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200

Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.

Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.

AFC West

Den -380
SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500

Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.

Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.

AFC South

Hou -265
Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300

Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.

Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.

Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.

The Ultimate Bolek NFL Preview - 2012 Edition

Mugshot of Marshawn Lynch after his DUI arrest

Has your favorite NFL player been convicted of a crime this offseason? If he hasn't, then he's not trying as hard as he should.

With 27 NFL players being cuffed for some type of offense in the past five months, there's a chance that you're a fan of one of these players. In the past couple weeks alone, Adrian Peterson, Dez Bryant, and Marshawn Lynch, among like 900 others, had some sort of DUI or altercation that seems to be an epidemic as the season approaches.

Aside from that, there were the usual free agent moves. Peyton joining the Mile High Club by heading to the Broncos. Like Kevin Kolb of last year, Matt Flynn cashed in on a couple good starts and signs with an NFC West team desperate for a quarterback. And despite winning the Super Bowl, the Giants are somehow not the talk of New York, as some team who shares a stadium with them traded for a polarizing fullback quarterback that will surely add some drama to an already contentious locker room.

The questions you want to know will be answered below. For my Bears fans, what should you expect from this season? Will my Niners regress this year after a sterling 2011 season that saw them win their first division in almost a decade?

An amazing fact found in this article shows that history is against the Niners (and the Lions & Texans) when it comes to teams who rebounded from sub-.500 records one year to double digit wins the next. Out of the 29 teams who have done this in the past decade, 26 of them regressed to 9 or less wins in year 3. In fact, the average team in this situation loses 4 more games in year 3 than they did in year 2.

I've included my predictions along with what offshore sportsbook 5Dimes is projecting from each team.

Aside from the fact above about regression, if you're betting on totals in the NFL, it's a very profitable angle to bet on the Over for teams projected for less than 6 wins. Keep that in mind if you think that betting on Cleveland, Indianapolis & Jacksonville unders are a layup of a bet.

NFL Predictions

AFC East

Mr GQ will have no problem winning the AFC East

NE (Over/Under 12 wins) - prediction: over (13)
NYJ (Over/Under  8.5) - prediction: under (6)
Buff (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (10)
Mia (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: under (6)

(Predicted finish: NE 13-3, Buff 10-6, NYJ 6-10, Mia 6-10)


Thoughts: On average, there's about 2 or 3 teams every year that go from losing records to double digit wins. In my projection, I have Buffalo being one of those teams. They made a commitment on the defensive end, shoring up their passing rush by signing defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and focused on defense in the first round of the draft. I still don't think they'll be a match for New England, who should continue to be the darlings of the AFC East. I expect the Jets to finish below .500 - I just don't see how having a plan to use two quarterbacks consistently is not going to be a locker room distraction.


AFC North


Pitt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Balt (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Cin (Over/Under 8) - prediction: under (7)
Cle (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Pitt 11-5, Balt 9-7, Cin 7-9, Cle 6-10)


Thoughts: If Polamalu & Big Ben stay healthy, I expect the Steelers to win back the AFC North from Baltimore, who lost Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs to a torn Achilles (currently rehabbing it, but likely to miss significant time at the very least). Baltimore should still be a playoff caliber team, but a dip in wins wouldn't surprise me. I expect Cincinnati to have a slight regression in Year 2 of the Andy Dalton era. I think Cleveland will be more competitive than normal, although for them, that still means only about 6 wins.


AFC South


Hou (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Ten (Over/Under 7) - prediction: push (7)
Jax (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: under (3)
Ind (Over/Under 5.5) - prediction: over (6)


(Predicted finish: Hou 11-5, Ten 7-9, Indy 6-10, Jax 3-13)


Thoughts: Outside of the AFC East, this looks like the easiest division to project. Jacksonville & Indianapolis are clearly in rebuilding mode, with the Titans sandwiched in-between them and the Texans, who will likely win their second straight division title after not making the playoffs in their first nine years of existence. They won the division with relative ease last year, and that was without Matt Schaub down the stretch. I expect the Texans to take the next step and be a Super Bowl contender this year.


AFC West


SD (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Den (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: under (7)
KC (Over/Under 8) - prediction: over (10)
Oak (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)


(Predicted finish: KC 10-6, Oak 8-8, SD 7-9, Den 7-9)

Gonna be weird seeing Peyton in orange (and out of the playoffs)

Thoughts: This division has been one of the hardest for me to read and project, but I think the Chiefs will get back to the top of the division. They lost so many folks in the very beginning of 2011 to various ligament tears that they never really had a chance - they somehow rebounded to come close to winning the very weak AFC West. The defensive minded coach (Romeo Crennel) will make a better impression in his second time around as head coach. I don't trust the Chargers to suddenly start doing great under Norv Turner, whose naked pictures of the GM and owners of the team (presumably anyways) allow him to keep coaching the team. I don't think the Broncos have enough talent around Peyton, who himself is coming off a year layoff and his third neck surgery and is nearing NFL extinction. I'll probably come back to eat these words when Peyton throws for 40 TDs.




AFC Playoffs (1-6 seeds): NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buff, Balt




NFC East


Phil (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (12)
NYG (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (7)
Dal (Over/Under 8.5) - prediction: over (9)
Wash (Over/Under 6.5) - prediction: over (7)


(Predicted Finish: Phil 12-4, Dal 9-7, NYG 7-9, Wash 7-9)


Thoughts: I'm drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid for the second year in a row. Unlike last year though, I feel like I'll be right this time around. I don't doubt their chances to win the division as long as Vick can stay healthy, which has always been a question for him in his career. I think the Giants will take a big step back (note how I didn't go with the pun of GIANT step back). Dallas will be on the fringe of the playoffs again, and Tony Romo will be to blame (as always). RGIII will bring some life to a Redskins franchise that hasn't been a perennial contender for the playoffs since the late 80s/early 90s.


NFC North


GB (Over/Under 12) - prediction: under (11)
Det (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: under (9)
Chi (Over/Under 9.5) - prediction: over (11)
Min (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)

If I have anything to say, these two will be all smiles come January

(Predicted Finish: Chicago 11-5 (wins tiebreaker), Green Bay 11-5, Det 9-7, Min 4-12)


Thoughts: My Bears friends are probably going to blame me if they fail to live up to higher than normal expectations, but I believe they got better pieces than last year and should benefit from better health w/ Cutler and Forte (who with his new contract, hopefully will not suffer from Chris Johnsonitis), which is what cost them a chance at the playoffs down the stretch last year. Their defense is never something that needs questioning, as that has been Lovie's forte (pun somewhat intended). Green Bay's offense hid some of the flaws that their defense showed last year. The offense should still be its juggernaut self, but I believe that with the rest of the division (save Minnesota) is catching up with them, it will be difficult for them to get over 12 wins.


NFC South

Expect to see this shirt (or a version of it) worn all year in NO

New Orleans (Over/Under 10) - prediction: over (11)
Atlanta (Over/Under 9) - prediction: under (7)
Carolina (Over/Under 7.5) - prediction: over (9)
Tampa (Over/Under 6) - prediction: push (6)


(Predicted Finish: New Orleans 11-5, Carolina 9-7, Atlanta 7-9, Tampa 6-10)


Thoughts: At first, I was on the bandwagon that New Orleans would be distracted this season by the bounty stuff and miss out on the playoffs. However, the more I thought about it and realized that New Orleans' home field is going to be even more crazy with their "us against the world" mentality that they have with their coach being suspended for the year, the more I thought to myself - I could easily see them go 7-1 or even 8-0 again at home, especially with the way Brees slings it. I expect Carolina to take a big step forward and Atlanta take a step back, which will result in Mike Smith being fired at the end of the year.


NFC West

San Fran (Over/Under 10) - prediction: under (9)
Arizona (Over/Under 7) - prediction: over (8)
Seattle (Over/Under 7) - prediction: under (5)
St. Louis (Over/Under 6) - prediction: under (4)


(Predicted Finish: San Fran 9-7, Arizona 8-8, Seattle 5-11, St. Louis 4-12)

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Randy Moss making a big impact for the Niners

Thoughts: San Francisco benefited from an improbable +28 turnover ratio and great health last year (only 8 total games missed by defensive starters). The turnover rate will go down, but it's possible that the lack of defensive injuries will not. I found that the Niners' string of "luck" in the health dept is no fluke - between 2008-2010, the starters only missed 16 total games on defense: source. Even though with their signings on offense are pointing towards an improvement in production, I expect a regression for Alex Smith (17 TDs, 5 picks last year) which will negate some of the signings. Arizona finished the season out strong with John Skelton behind center, winning 7 of their last 9 games. I wouldn't be surprised if the Week 17 showdown between the Niners and the Cardinals is for the division title.

NFC Playoffs (1-6 Seeds): Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det




AFC Wild Card: Pitt over Balt, KC over Buff
NFC Wild Card: Chi over Det, GB over SF
AFC Divisionals: Hou over Pitt, NE over KC
NFC Divisionals:  Phil over GB, NO over Chi


AFC Championship: Hou over NE
NFC Championship: Phil over NO


Super Bowl: Phil over Hou


League MVP: Mike Vick (Phil)
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees (NO)
Defensive Player of the Year: Julius Peppers (Chi)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck (Indy)
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Morris Claiborne (Dallas)

Thoughts: Out of these 12 playoff teams, I guarantee I miss on 6 of them, maybe more. I went with the rule of thumb that there's usually about 4 new division winners from the previous year (I got Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Chicago & Philly fitting that bill). After my blog earlier last month about teams with value, I think New Orleans may have tremendous value on winning the Super Bowl, especially since the Big Game is in their home stadium. Imagine the noise that the AFC squad would have to deal with. I may make a futures bet on the Saints before the season starts, because it will get lower if they make a strong push as they did last year). If I could take that blog back, I'd have them as my best value team.

I'm expecting Vick to lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl title this year

Why the Eagles winning it all? I think I'm falling prey to how they closed and their overall level of talent at the skill positions. Maclin had medical issues that prevented him from being effective like he was in 2010. This prediction will probably flame out badly. Vick has problems staying healthy, but if he does, I think he will live up to his dumb comments (at least for one year) about the Eagles being a possible dynasty.

Why the Texans over Patriots in the AFC Championship? Lately it seems that the Patriots fall a step short and have one lackluster playoff game that does them in. I'm projecting that from them in this game, as the Texans will pull off an upset and make it to the Super Bowl.

Strange as it sounds, I still may opt to bet for the Saints to win it all instead of the Eagles.

Odds are, there will be a few teams that catch everyone off-guard. I only picked 4 new teams to make the playoffs compared to last year - usually it changes by 6-7 teams. So if I didn't pick your team to make it there, you have some hope.

Enjoy your NFL seasons, and I'm sure I'll be back throughout the year to critique or praise my predictions.

Love/Hate - Football Style & College Picks - Week 2

The NFL offseason brought about some things about teams and players that I love, some on the opposite spectrum.

I love...the fact that the NFC West still appears to be weak as hell. This gives the Niners a fighting chance to win the division.

I hate...that we are giving Alex Smith yet another chance to prove himself. I'm not sure if Harbaugh is a mad scientist or what, but he has been on record as saying he wanted Smith to be back with the team. I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but I'd almost rather throw a rookie out there. It's not like Smith has done anything to earn the starting spot again.

I love...at least for week 1, the disrespect that the Buccaneers are getting. Tampa went 10-6 last year, but missed the playoffs based on losing a tiebreaker to Green Bay. I know that Tampa had a somewhat weak schedule, but they took advantage of it, sweeping Carolina and their 4 NFC West games on their way to a 9-1 record versus sub-.500 team. I know they need to do better against good teams (only win was Week 17 against the Saints, who benched their starters), but I think their core of players will keep them on the right side of .500 this year. Their only loss in that 9-1 stretch, coincidentally, came to the team that is next on my list.

I hate...how much love the Lions are getting from across the spectrum of media. Believe me, this is hard to say with how much money I made on Detroit games last season. I'd like Detroit's chances a lot better if LeShoure didn't get hurt for the year, because he would have been a great compliment to speedster Jahvid Best. Also, their other impact rookie, Nick Fairley, won't be starting Week 1 after having surgery on his foot last month -who knows how long it will take him to have an impact once he does get on the field. And last but not least, Matt Stafford hasn't been healthy for an entire season yet. He's their ultimate key for making the next step and making a playoff run, so I'm waiting to see him play a full season before I can push the Lions forward as a playoff contender.

I love...that Favre is finally out of the NFL. The media (not him) tried bringing his name back into the circles of conversation with rumors of him going to the Eagles as a backup and the Colts when Manning's status to start the season was in doubt. The first rumor, let me say, was about the most laughable rumor in the history of rumors. Does anyone actually believe that Favre would be a willing back-up for someone? The Colts would have been more reasonable, but Favre would have likely been murdered if he decided to go back out there.

I hate...that the Texans are now the favorites in their division and getting some media love. Before Manning's injury was known to be one that could have him missing the season, the Texans were a sleeper division pick. Don't get me wrong - I think the Texans will win the division and deserve to be the favorite at this point. I'm just being a Pouty Pete because I wanted them to be more of underdogs going into the season so that my prediction back in August would look more ballsy.


With those things being said, I am making my first college picks of the year in week 2. Games are Saturday games. Likely making them $44 plays.

Michigan +3 over Notre Dame - I think Michigan is going to thrive behind their home crowd in the first game under the lights at the Big House. I usually end up betting this rivalry game and betting it wrong, so you make want to play Notre Dame for all you can.

Oregon -27 over Nevada - Oregon is not happy after their performance against LSU and will put a hurting on Nevada here.

Tulsa -12 over Tulane - This is complete degenerate action here, but a lot of the good handicappers on Covers (the site I use for gambling research) are loving this line, so I figured I'd give it a shot.

I'll likely have another NFL blog up by Monday, with a possible pick for Monday's game.

Have a good weekend folks, and enjoy opening weekend of the NFL - I know I will.

Long shots, Cutler, & Week 1 Gambling Leans

I can't not focus on football, so here's some more random football thoughts.

Long shots that I'd consider placing money on if I were in Vegas with these odds (Long shot defined as anything beyond 20/1) - odds provided by www.bookmaker.eu:
Houston Texans: 30/1 - If you read my last blog about football, you'd already know this would be a long-shot that I would like.
Chicago Bears: 38/1 - If they can protect their QB even slightly better than last year, they can be better than last year. Although I think teams around them in the upper echelon of the NFC got better and will be better. Still, at these odds, it'd be worth a small bet on these odds if their defense can play up to the same level as last year and offense improves slightly.
Tampa Bay: 45/1 - Big fan of these odds for a team with a soon-to-be Pro Bowl QB in Josh Freeman (25 TDs, only 6 ints), a tough-to-tackle RB in LeGarrette Blount, and a defense that was top 10 in points allowed and takeaway differential. These odds are inflated mainly due to their NFC South competition (New Orleans and Atlanta). But at 45/1, I'd be all over these odds.

Thoughts on how Jay Cutler will be received:
If Cutler is booed to start the year because of how last year ended, then I wish those fans a season full of Todd Collins and see how that goes. Everyone and their mother seemed to get caught up in the emotion of the injury last year that left Cutler sidelined for the 2nd half of the NFC Championship game in their eventual loss to the Packers. Fans and fellow NFL players (notably Maurice Jones-Drew) were basing their judgments of Cutler's "injury" on the shots that Fox showed of him on the sideline supposedly not caring about what was going on in the game or not helping Hanie out. I can't say this for certain because I wasn't there, but I'm fairly certain Fox was showing isolated shots of him by himself on purpose to paint this picture. It doesn't help that Cutler is cold to the media (and now seeing how misconstrued they painted him here, who can blame him?), so he gets no benefit of the doubt from the fans.

The dude got raped without protection all year (52 sacks in 15 games played) and should be soon delivering the bastard baby that the Giants impregnated him with last October. He started all but one game last year despite this beating behind one of the worst offensive lines that Chicago has ever seen. I'm not saying he shouldn't be taking the blame for some of these sacks and also just taking blame in general when the offense goes awry, but to question this guy's toughness (especially a guy who's playing with diabetes) is pure ignorance.

My favorite thing to come from the Cutler aftermath was when people said they saw him walking around just fine when they saw him going to a restaurant in the city or the like. Yeah - because walking into a restaurant is the same thing as running away from 250 pound linebackers on a football field with an MCL tear. If he's dodging angry waiters who lost money on the Bears after the game with amazing grace, then get back to me. Please don't boo him to start the year for last year because you think he pussied out of the biggest game of his life. Instead, save those boos for legitimate mistakes that he will eventually make in 2011.

22 days until college football starts, 29 till NFL kicks off...
which means I can't stop thinking about who I am going to bet on in week 1. The preseason in NFL will affect some of these odds, but I have some idea of a few potential week 1 NFL bets:

Kickoff game: New Orleans at Green Bay (-4.5/total of 46). I like the under here. Seems like week 1, especially opening game, defenses are ahead of offenses, which leads to lower scores. I'd love to see the total go up to about 48 or so if possible (the betting public almost always bets Overs on prime-time games), but will likely be happy with betting this at 46. I see about a 20/24-17 score in the opener.

Sunday games: Indianapolis at Houston (-3/total of 46). I like the over here. While I think the Houston defense will be better with Philips as their D-coordinator, I wouldn't be surprised if there's an adjustment for some of these guys to get acclimated to a 3-4 defense. If Manning plays, I'd expect a total score in the low 50s at least. If the line falls to 2.5, I may consider Houston as a pick.

Carolina at Arizona (-5.5, 36.5). Seems like most people are on the Kolb train, but I can't lay 5.5 on a team that didn't really do much else to improve their team through the free agent wire. Their offensive line allowed almost as many sacks as the Bears did, and it doesn't appear they addressed their O-line woes. Meanwhile, the Panthers were devastated with injuries last year and can't get worse than they were last year. I think Ron Rivera will get about 6 wins out of these guys this year. I'll gladly take the +5.5 and may consider a money line bet on them if I use a book this year that has money lines.

I know more lines will stick out soon, but those are the initial ones that I see. I'm going to try avoiding NCAA betting in week 1, but may find an angle to bet on in the high-profile game (LSU/Oregon).


Not much time left till the season starts in both, so let the countdown continue and let's watch baseball go swiftly into the sunset. This up/down/up/down from the Sox has me convinced they will end 81-81, so no use sweating that.

9 more days till fantasy football draft - which officially kicks off the football mania. Happy football!