NFL Division by Division - Odds, Teams w/ Value & Pick

For about a month or so now, the wagering site 5dimes has had a variety of NFL odds up, including all of the divisions. If there's a story to be told from the division odds, it's that there is just as many hotly contested divisions as there is run-away winners (although we know that there's a good chance that one or two of these big favorites bombs out).

I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.

Odds as of 8/3/13

NFC North

GB -155
Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625


Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.


Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.

I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).

NFC East

NYG +215
Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425


Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.


Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.

NFC West

SF -105
Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400

Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.

Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?

NFC South

Atl +150
NO +170
TB +525
Car +650

Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.

Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.

AFC North

Pitt +170
Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770

Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?

1. Defense - Geno Atkins has Defensive Player of the Year potential while the defense as a whole has top 3 potential. Atkins anchors the best defensive line in the division, a line which includes Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (6 sacks). They bring back a secondary that allowed the 7th-least passing yards. Their linebacking core added James Harrison, who has lost a step but could be a veteran presence that pushes the defense to greater success.
2. Weakened rivals - Baltimore will miss the leadership of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed on defense. Joe Flacco will desperately miss the absence of Anquan Boldin & Dennis Pitta (Boldin to free agency, Pitta to injury). These two guys caught half of Flacco's 22 passing TDs in the regular season and 7 of his 11 TDs in the postseason. Torrey Smith is a deep threat, but is he capable of making up for the missing Boldin/Pitta connections? Jacoby Jones had a good Super Bowl, but overall not a guy you want as your #2. And while many expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, I'm not sold on their offense being able to do its share to win this division. Last year, they were in the bottom third in yards/play, thanks in large part to a 3.7 yards/carry. Will Le'Veon Bell help out? Perhaps, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to help.
3. Offense upgrades through the draft - Tyler Eifert will give Andy Dalton another tight end to throw it to (Jermaine Gresham being the other), which should help open up the field for A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has a chance to take the running back reigns from Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Either way, both moves add much-needed depth to the offense.

Side note - it seems very weird to see Cleveland at such low odds (for them anyways), especially when their O/U is projected for only 6. I have Cleveland as another of my surprise teams (playoffs potentially), taking into mind the Norv Turner factor. He may have sucked ass as coach, but I think there can be a Wade Philips-like effect. Philips sucked as coach, but like Turner, has always thrived in a coordinator role. Take a look at the AFC and try to find me surefire picks for the playoffs. Outside of New England & Denver in weaker divisions, you can't.

AFC East

NE -425
Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200

Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.

Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.

AFC West

Den -380
SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500

Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.

Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.

AFC South

Hou -265
Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300

Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.

Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.

Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.

Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5

Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.

I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.

I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.

After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.

It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.

It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.

Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.

It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.

I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.

In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.

Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.

It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).

Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.

The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.

Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.

Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.

Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.

Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".

There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.

Anywho....

As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen -  but I won't be backing these myself.

NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11

NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).

Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5

Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.

Have a good weekend.

B List - Best Value on NFL Super Bowl Futures (List 3)

We're still over 3 months away from the regular season starting, yet I can't stop thinking about it. The sport itself is enough to enjoy, but add to it the element of fantasy football and gambling, and we have a recipe for my favorite sport. While it is not the most timely of topics, it is one I cannot avoid.

Below are futures bets (odds to win the Super Bowl) that I'd consider great values at the moment. I'll eventually write an NFL preview with predictions and may not have the same opinion of the teams listed below as I do now.

Remember too, for gamblers, betting on odds to win the Super Bowl isn't always about picking the team who will win it all, but rather what team can guarantee you some profit depending on their level of advancement in the playoffs. Profit should always be the goal, so hedging against these picks in the playoffs would guarantee some money back either way.

Without further ado...

7. Kansas City - 50/1...A year removed from a division championship, the Chiefs offer great value for a team that resides in the NFL's new worst division. Last year, it felt like the entire Chiefs team got injured with ACL injuries in the first couple weeks. With a presumably healthy Jamaal Charles & Matt Cassel coming back, along with a nice complement for Charles in Peyton Hillis, I believe that the Chiefs have a great chance to win the division again. My initial thought of winning this division a few weeks ago was San Diego, but I'm not sure how much I can trust a team led by Norv Turner, who must have naked pictures on the Chargers owner for continually avoiding the chopping block.

6. St. Louis - 80/1...The Rams have a well-respected coach taking the helm this year. Like the AFC West, we're not talking about one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. If Bradford can stay healthy behind center, I expect the Rams to surpass the Vegas win total of 6 for the 2012 season by at least two games. I don't think the Rams are better or more talented than the 49ers, but even I know that the leap the Niners took from 2010 to 2011 is likely to have a regression of sorts. If that regression is in the 9-10 win range, I think the Rams could threaten for the division. Another great thing about the Rams is the tremendous amount of youth on their team - it could end up working in their favor.

5. Miami - 40/1...In the first half of 2011, the Dolphins were looking like strong contenders to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Then, after an 0-7 start, something strange happened...they started winning. They closed the second half of the year with a 6-3 record, with many blowout wins in that stretch (their average margin of victory in those 6 games was about 16 points). They were even slaughtering the Patriots in a Christmas Eve tilt before Brady and company came back and stole one at home. The Dolphins may have drafted Ryan Tannehill for the future, but I believe Matt Moore's solid run down the stretch behind center deserves a second look entering the season. I could see Miami contending for a Wild Card in the AFC, with an outside shot at the AFC East crown if New England loses Brady for a significant period of time.


4. Chicago - 28/1...Last year, I liked the odds they had in the preseason as well, and their odds looked like a steal until Cutler and Forte went down in mid-November and their team, which looked like a team who could make a run in the playoffs (despite the likelihood of playing nothing but road games), went to completely crap. A 7-3 start was followed by a 1-5 stumble in the last 6 games without Cutler. This year, Cutler and Forte are back and have experienced backups (Jason Campbell and Michael Bush) that would make injuries to the starters less harmful to the season's prospects. With Brandon Marshall in the fold, Cutler has his favorite target from Denver. Their defense has hardly ever been an issue, so I expect them to be strong there again. Division champions have about a 50% turnover rate every year, so it would not shock me to see either the Bears or Lions overtake the Packers in the NFC North and have a high seed in the playoffs.

3. Carolina - 44/1...After seeing what Cam Newton did in his first year behind center, I am a big believer in his abilities and I think he will be in the elite QB discussion for the next 10 years. A blog of mine back in January pointed out that most teams who win Super Bowls have a Hall-of-Fame quality QB behind center, and while it was only his first year, I believe Newton's career arc will have him contending for Super Bowls in the near future. With the leaps that teams make from year to year, who's to say the Panthers can't go from 2-14 to 11-5/12-4 in a two-year span? Consider me one of the first on their bandwagon.

2. New Orleans - 16/1...The Saints are one of the most difficult teams to project in the NFL. The coach who led them to the Super Bowl - suspended for year. Some key defensive players - suspended for portions of the year (Vilma for the entire year). I wouldn't be surprised if the distractions of what has happened this offseason caused the Saints to dip to an 8-8 or 7-9 record. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if Brees and company picked up where they left off last year and dominated their division once again. The latter thought is what makes me think that New Orleans has great value at this price. If NO were to make the playoffs in a similar fashion as last year, their odds will end up being a lot lower. And don't forget - if they do make the Super Bowl, it would be a home game, with the Superdome as host for this year's big game.

1. Detroit - 23/1...Stud QB, check. Stud WR, check. Stafford and Calvin Johnson showed what they can do together in a full season, which led Detroit to their first playoff appearance in centuries. In a passing league, having elite guys at these positions is key to making a series run at a ring. The front part of their line with Fairley & Suh is as talented as they come. The one thing I worry about with the Lions is their character issues. Fairley, Titus Young & Mikel Leshoure have all been arrested this offseason for various reasons. Leshoure missed 2011, but he could be the key in Detroit taking the next step in 2012. If the Lions could add a running attack to that passing offense, the Lions could be contending for the #1 seed in the NFC. There's still some issue with a weak secondary, but I place Detroit as the best value in terms of somewhat long-shots because I believe their ceiling is the highest of these teams. It'd be a risky 23/1, but one that could pay itself off in a big way.

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 

Week 5	Week 6
NFL 2-5, -$132.40	NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40	MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220	Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60	YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139	Spreads: 8-8, -$34

Love/Hate - Football Style & College Picks - Week 2

The NFL offseason brought about some things about teams and players that I love, some on the opposite spectrum.

I love...the fact that the NFC West still appears to be weak as hell. This gives the Niners a fighting chance to win the division.

I hate...that we are giving Alex Smith yet another chance to prove himself. I'm not sure if Harbaugh is a mad scientist or what, but he has been on record as saying he wanted Smith to be back with the team. I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but I'd almost rather throw a rookie out there. It's not like Smith has done anything to earn the starting spot again.

I love...at least for week 1, the disrespect that the Buccaneers are getting. Tampa went 10-6 last year, but missed the playoffs based on losing a tiebreaker to Green Bay. I know that Tampa had a somewhat weak schedule, but they took advantage of it, sweeping Carolina and their 4 NFC West games on their way to a 9-1 record versus sub-.500 team. I know they need to do better against good teams (only win was Week 17 against the Saints, who benched their starters), but I think their core of players will keep them on the right side of .500 this year. Their only loss in that 9-1 stretch, coincidentally, came to the team that is next on my list.

I hate...how much love the Lions are getting from across the spectrum of media. Believe me, this is hard to say with how much money I made on Detroit games last season. I'd like Detroit's chances a lot better if LeShoure didn't get hurt for the year, because he would have been a great compliment to speedster Jahvid Best. Also, their other impact rookie, Nick Fairley, won't be starting Week 1 after having surgery on his foot last month -who knows how long it will take him to have an impact once he does get on the field. And last but not least, Matt Stafford hasn't been healthy for an entire season yet. He's their ultimate key for making the next step and making a playoff run, so I'm waiting to see him play a full season before I can push the Lions forward as a playoff contender.

I love...that Favre is finally out of the NFL. The media (not him) tried bringing his name back into the circles of conversation with rumors of him going to the Eagles as a backup and the Colts when Manning's status to start the season was in doubt. The first rumor, let me say, was about the most laughable rumor in the history of rumors. Does anyone actually believe that Favre would be a willing back-up for someone? The Colts would have been more reasonable, but Favre would have likely been murdered if he decided to go back out there.

I hate...that the Texans are now the favorites in their division and getting some media love. Before Manning's injury was known to be one that could have him missing the season, the Texans were a sleeper division pick. Don't get me wrong - I think the Texans will win the division and deserve to be the favorite at this point. I'm just being a Pouty Pete because I wanted them to be more of underdogs going into the season so that my prediction back in August would look more ballsy.


With those things being said, I am making my first college picks of the year in week 2. Games are Saturday games. Likely making them $44 plays.

Michigan +3 over Notre Dame - I think Michigan is going to thrive behind their home crowd in the first game under the lights at the Big House. I usually end up betting this rivalry game and betting it wrong, so you make want to play Notre Dame for all you can.

Oregon -27 over Nevada - Oregon is not happy after their performance against LSU and will put a hurting on Nevada here.

Tulsa -12 over Tulane - This is complete degenerate action here, but a lot of the good handicappers on Covers (the site I use for gambling research) are loving this line, so I figured I'd give it a shot.

I'll likely have another NFL blog up by Monday, with a possible pick for Monday's game.

Have a good weekend folks, and enjoy opening weekend of the NFL - I know I will.