I decided to break down the current worthy QBs in terms of their chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm currently working on another piece which shows that there is a correlation between making/winning Super Bowls & making the Hall of Fame as a QB.
I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.
Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.
Eli Manning
The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?
Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.
Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.
I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?
Current HOF verdict: IN
Drew Brees
Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.
Current HOF verdict: IN
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.
Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)
Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.
Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN
Tony Romo
There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).
Current HOF verdict: OUT
Philip Rivers
See above critique of Romo. OUT.
2/03/2012
Betting 101: An Insight Into Super Bowl Betting Madness
Betting 101 is now in session.
Remember that last class where I said you shouldn't gamble if you haven't started already? Yeah....about that.
Most of my friends around me stayed in the classroom, looking for a lesson in how true degenerates gamble away their hard-earned money.
Enter Professors Little Man & Tim.
Betting 101 isn't a class to them - it's a lifestyle. Specifically, betting 101 Super Bowl props.
Yes, 101 separate bets. Thank God it's just 101 separate 1 dollar bets, with the biggest winner in their 5-6 year run of betting this being about $6, according to Professor Little Man.
In their run of doing this, the prop semantics and some of the props themselves have been refined. I can vouch for these gentlemen not messing around when it comes to gambling.
Have you ever met anyone who has wagered on games of Madden on a video game system? With a point spread created for the game by the gamblers themselves? Well, if you have met either of these gentlemen, then you have met a degenerate gambler. (Not like I have room to talk, as I am the proud winner of once selecting the correct infant in a baby race at the halftime of a Bulls game).
After a two-day process of picking props on a rotating basis (Little Man won the right to pick the first prop - funny enough, by winning the "coin flip"), I asked the gentlemen some questions about their degenerate gambling ways through Facebook messaging:
Please note that this is unedited for some salty language, which you should know is coming when Tim (and references of Tim) is involved
B-Bo Knows: When and how did you come up with this idea to do 101 bets?
Tim: I'm trying to look at past super bowls to narrow down the time. Feels like 2004, car vs ne wouldn't be surprised if it was earlier though. And as for as coming up with the idea...as we all know props are extremely popular this time of year and we want to go above and beyond and pick a ridiculous number.
LM: ...standby to receive narrative...
Tim: Haha, I knew Little Man would be good at this...
LM: Well, you see there laddy, in the irrationally exuberant times of the early new millennium, when cares were light and money freely disposable, and particular people unburdened by the soul-dimming responsibilities of adulthood, there was a compulsive gambling atmosphere that flourished deep underground. That's not to imply that there were hipster gamblers; the gambling literally took place underground, in the basements of houses occupied- but naturally not owned- by the gambling participants. This was back in the heyday of compulsive small-time gambling, when gambling wasn't about money, but about the act itself; a time when quarters were won and lost on simulated Madden Games, and $100 phones were smashed to oblivion in disproportionate response to losing bets on said Madden games. When Super Bowl squares were applied to a regular season NBA basketball game, and then to every regular season NBA basketball game for an entire year. When proposition bets were picked just for the novelty of being untraditional and offered the best free-form medium to express your inner gambling chi. It was only in this type of atmosphere that such a tradition could have been born: 101 Super Bowl Proposition Bets.
101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because it's the single biggest sporting event in world. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because it's our small token of appreciate to the gods of sport and competition. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because professional gamblers don't have the stomach or the stamina to see it through. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, each for a dollar, because it's not about getting money, it's about getting money you didn't have to work for. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets: Just because.
B-Bo: Awesome response. What the 8 to 10 regular readers of B-Bo Knows will want to know is - why the 1-2 year break in the 101 bets?
Tim: It basically stopped because of time constraints, couldn't find a common time to get this through this long process.
Remember that last class where I said you shouldn't gamble if you haven't started already? Yeah....about that.
Most of my friends around me stayed in the classroom, looking for a lesson in how true degenerates gamble away their hard-earned money.
Enter Professors Little Man & Tim.
Betting 101 isn't a class to them - it's a lifestyle. Specifically, betting 101 Super Bowl props.
Yes, 101 separate bets. Thank God it's just 101 separate 1 dollar bets, with the biggest winner in their 5-6 year run of betting this being about $6, according to Professor Little Man.
In their run of doing this, the prop semantics and some of the props themselves have been refined. I can vouch for these gentlemen not messing around when it comes to gambling.
Have you ever met anyone who has wagered on games of Madden on a video game system? With a point spread created for the game by the gamblers themselves? Well, if you have met either of these gentlemen, then you have met a degenerate gambler. (Not like I have room to talk, as I am the proud winner of once selecting the correct infant in a baby race at the halftime of a Bulls game).
After a two-day process of picking props on a rotating basis (Little Man won the right to pick the first prop - funny enough, by winning the "coin flip"), I asked the gentlemen some questions about their degenerate gambling ways through Facebook messaging:
Please note that this is unedited for some salty language, which you should know is coming when Tim (and references of Tim) is involved
B-Bo Knows: When and how did you come up with this idea to do 101 bets?
Tim: I'm trying to look at past super bowls to narrow down the time. Feels like 2004, car vs ne wouldn't be surprised if it was earlier though. And as for as coming up with the idea...as we all know props are extremely popular this time of year and we want to go above and beyond and pick a ridiculous number.
LM: ...standby to receive narrative...
Tim: Haha, I knew Little Man would be good at this...
LM: Well, you see there laddy, in the irrationally exuberant times of the early new millennium, when cares were light and money freely disposable, and particular people unburdened by the soul-dimming responsibilities of adulthood, there was a compulsive gambling atmosphere that flourished deep underground. That's not to imply that there were hipster gamblers; the gambling literally took place underground, in the basements of houses occupied- but naturally not owned- by the gambling participants. This was back in the heyday of compulsive small-time gambling, when gambling wasn't about money, but about the act itself; a time when quarters were won and lost on simulated Madden Games, and $100 phones were smashed to oblivion in disproportionate response to losing bets on said Madden games. When Super Bowl squares were applied to a regular season NBA basketball game, and then to every regular season NBA basketball game for an entire year. When proposition bets were picked just for the novelty of being untraditional and offered the best free-form medium to express your inner gambling chi. It was only in this type of atmosphere that such a tradition could have been born: 101 Super Bowl Proposition Bets.
101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because it's the single biggest sporting event in world. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because it's our small token of appreciate to the gods of sport and competition. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, because professional gamblers don't have the stomach or the stamina to see it through. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets, each for a dollar, because it's not about getting money, it's about getting money you didn't have to work for. 101 Super Bowl proposition bets: Just because.
B-Bo: Awesome response. What the 8 to 10 regular readers of B-Bo Knows will want to know is - why the 1-2 year break in the 101 bets?
Tim: It basically stopped because of time constraints, couldn't find a common time to get this through this long process.
And back to the Madden bet, with the breaking of the
phone...my team could have ran out the clock but apparently had Andy Reid
coaching them and did not have proper time management. So I lost my cool and
spiked that phone like I scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Booze may have
been a factor, but I rarely touch the stuff.
LM: #TrueStory
Yeah, it was very tiring renegotiating the bets that needed
to be changed every year, which is why it stopped for 3 years. This is why we
moved towards more generic prop bets (NFC starting RB, for example, or team
leader in tackles) rather than deciding beforehand which players to
specifically name.
Tim: Yea...looking up Nielsen ratings and commercial info the
following days was also tiring and time consuming.
B-Bo: Does it always take about two days to make these picks? And
how long are we talking from game's end till you're done grading the bets?
LM: It used to take through the next day, or sometimes longer
depending on when the Nielsen ratings became available. We used to have a prop
for that.
Tim: Normally we would have a block of time and the bets would
take about a few hours. Grading was helped out by the fact that we pay
attention very closely to the game and score what we can during the game. And
then like Little Man just said the rest usually gets cleaned up the next day.
LM: It used to take about 6-8 hours to negotiate new props and make
the picks. this year it was spread out over a few days, but I'd say the elapsed
time devoted to this was probably about 4 hours. I anticipate it taking about 2-3 in the future.
Tim: Yep, betting on it longer than it takes to play the game,
that was the insane part of this in previous years.
LM: And part of the charm.
Tim: Yea, it was, unfortunately we don't have that type of time
anymore.
B-Bo: Back to the Madden bet - I remember witnessing the breaking
of the phone on a bet worth a George Washington coin, and I can vouch that
drinking is out of Tim's character (I cannot vouch for this). I know there's
been some games you've watched together when doing these bets. Do you guys show
the same intensity for these 101 bets as the Madden simulation?
Tim: Definitely. One Super Bowl moment I wish he was there for
was the NE-Philadelphia game. The infamous coin flip as I like to remember it.
When a 10 year old portly (cant confirm he was portly) little bastard came out
to do the coin "flip". Flip is in quotations because it wasn't really
a flip. The coin did not make one rotation and I was fucking steaming. Little Man
laughing at me through text didn't help.
LM: My personal favorite is the Burger King commercial moment.
BK had been running football ads all year of the King scoring TDs, rushing TDs,
interceptions run back for TD, everything, and the commercials were pervasive,
several per game in like every market. So we had a prop, the BK King scores
ov/un 1.5 TDs during the SB. Tim took the over and said, "The King is
finding that end zone." Three quarters go by and there's no King, then
finally, in the fourth, near the end of the game, a BK spot, and it's the
weirdest commercial I've ever seen. Virtually unrelated to football. All I
really remember is the King was swinging on a rope swing while a model brought
him chicken or something. Tim was pissed, and I was laughing uncontrollably.
"You spent a million and a half on that piece of shit?"
Tim: That commercial was ridiculous, what a piece of shit. Made
not eat burger king for years....or maybe it was the food that did that.
B-Bo: I don't think you could be blamed for avoiding it in either
regard. I'm guessing there's a little adjustment to these bets on a yearly
basis?
Tim: Yea, with it being generic now there will be even less. We
usually double check the wording to so there is no gray area on anything. So
the language changes a little each year.
But in the past when specific player props were in there
then there would be a good amount of changes.
B-Bo: You guys say it takes about a couple hours or so to make
these bets. Do either of you do any extensive research on them before making
your selections? Any strategy involved?
LM: I do some, not much research.
Tim: Same here, very little research. As far as picking is
concerned we both pretty much know the strengths of these teams now.
B-Bo: To wind up this unofficial first "interview" of
B-Bo Knows, I'd like to hear both of your thoughts on my prediction of Little Man
winning the 101 bets 57-44. (I imagine some ties will ensue, but I refuse to
pick ties)
Tim: I tend to agree with it. This year there were bets I didn't
mind getting the Giants. And I kind of let him take those over more so than I
have in the past. I wish I would have stopped it in hindsight, it just kind of
got away from me at some point. But if the Giants have a big day, that number
could be flipped.
LM: I'm going to predict 101-0.
And my secondary guess will be 52-49 in my favor.
Tim: Haha...if someone gets ejected, you will see a world class
meltdown.
Thank you to the two gentlemen who shared their insight into the madness that is "101 Super Bowl Proposition Bets". For those curious on the props and their bets, here they are below. The ones highlighted in color were chosen by the person, with the other getting the other side by default.
For those interested, Little Man's first pick was "No" to there being a successful onside kick; the last category left, he chose New England getting more interceptions.
Feel free to browse the material below. Class dismissed.
For those interested, Little Man's first pick was "No" to there being a successful onside kick; the last category left, he chose New England getting more interceptions.
Feel free to browse the material below. Class dismissed.
| Tim | Little Man | |
| 1. Heads/tails: | heads | tails |
| 2. Calling team picks: | tails | heads |
| 3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss: | wins | loses |
| 4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers: | defer | chooses |
| 5. Football travels ov/un 1399.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards): | under | over |
| 6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: | run | pass |
| 7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: | pass | run |
| 8. First score, TD/FG: | FG | TD |
| 9. First team to score: | NYG | NE |
| 10. First turn-over, fumble/interception: | int | fumble |
| 11. Which team benefits from the first turn over: | NE | NYG |
| 12. Which team commits more turnovers: | NE | NYG |
| 13. First team to take a timeout: | NE | NYG |
| 14. First team to challenge play: | NE | NYG |
| 15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5: | under | over |
| 16. First quarter points, over/under 13.5: | under | over |
| 17. Total points second quarter, over/under 13.5: | under | over |
| 18. Total points third quarter, over/under 13.5: | over | under |
| 19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5: | over | under |
| 20. Total points for game, over/under 55: | under | over |
| 21. All timeouts used in the first half: | yes | no |
| 22. All timeouts used in second half: | yes | no |
| 23. First penalty committed by which team: | NYG | NE |
| 24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards: | under | over |
| 25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC: | NE | NYG |
| 26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC: | NE | NYG |
| 27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC: | NYG | NE |
| 28. Most team passing yards: | NYG | NE |
| 29. Most team rushing yards: | NYG | NE |
| 30. Most team passing TDs: | NYG | NE |
| 31. Most team rushing TDs: | NYG | NE |
| 32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards: | NE | NYG |
| 33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC: | NE | NYG |
| 34. More FG/TD in game: | FG | TD |
| 35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game:A74 | no | yes |
| 36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half: | no | yes |
| 37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:A76 | yes | no |
| 38. Will there be a safety in the game: | no | yes |
| 39. Will there be an OT: | no | yes |
| 40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion: | yes | no |
| 41. Last team to score: | NE | NYG |
| 42. Last team to score win/lose: | lose | win |
| 43. Anyone ejected from game: | no | yes |
| 44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s: | over | under |
| 45. First/second half, most points scored: | 2nd | 1st |
| 46. Which team will record more sacks: | NYG | NE |
| 47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores: | no | yes |
| 48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC: | NE | NYG |
| 49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards: | over | under |
| 50. Which team will score the longest TD: | NYG | NE |
| 51. Will there be a defensive TD: | no | yes |
| 52. Will there be a special teams TD: | no | yes |
| 53. Which team will kick the longest FG: | NYG | NE |
| 54. Will there be a successful onsides kick: | yes | no |
| 55.Will game be tied after 0-0: | yes | no |
| 56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock): | under | over |
| 57. Winner of Super Bowl: | NE | NYG |
| 58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5: | over | under |
| 59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC: | NYG | NE |
| 60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first: | TD | int |
| 61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first: | TD | int |
| 62. Will starting NFC RB fumble: | no | yes |
| 63. Will starting AFC RB fumble: | yes | no |
| 64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers): | NE | NYG |
| 65. Which team will intercept more balls: | NYG | NE |
| 66. NFC QB first pass complete? | no | yes |
| 67. AFC QB first pass complete? | no | yes |
| 68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC: | NE | NYG |
| 69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC: | NYG | NE |
| 70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands: | stand | reverse |
| 71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC: | NYG | NE |
| 72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC: | NE | NYG |
| 73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC: | NYG | NE |
| 74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC: | NYG | NE |
| 75. Which team punts from deepest spot: | NE | NYG |
| 76. Which team kicks for more points: | NE | NYG |
| 77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC: | NYG | NE |
| 78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5: | under | over |
| 79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards: | NE | NYG |
| 80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5: | under | over |
| 81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards: | over | under |
| 82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards: | no | yes |
| 83. Will there be a missed FG: | yes | no |
| 84. Last score, FG/TD: | FG | TD |
| 85. Will there be a red zone turnover: | yes | no |
| 86. Who places more punts inside the 20: | NYG | NE |
| 87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game: | no | yes |
| 88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty: | yes | no |
| 89. Will there be a blocked FG: | yes | no |
| 90. Will there be a blocked punt: | no | yes |
| 91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass: | yes | no |
| 92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker: | no | yes |
| 93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC: | NYG | NE |
| 94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC: | NYG | NE |
| 95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards: | under | over |
| 96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards: | under | over |
| 97. Is a double digit lead ever established: | no | yes |
| 98. Who spends more clock time in the lead: | NE | NYG |
| 99. Who has more time of possession: | NE | NYG |
| 100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QB: | QB | kickers |
| 101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QB: | kickers | QB |
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