2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend

As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.

Random thoughts from the weekend:

1. Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
2. Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
3. Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
4. One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
5. The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
6. Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
7. The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
8. After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.

Championship Games

I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:

• This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
• There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
• Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
• San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
• The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.

Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:

1. Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
2. How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
3. Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.

With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.

New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.

Never Leave the Table When You're On a Heater - Week 8 Picks

It only took me three weeks of NFL to give myself a personal bye from gambling. It was that bad of a run.

After that week break, it only took me a couple weeks for me to finally say that I'm about to hit my in-season run of a lifetime.

With the help of a spreadsheet I've created that shows how much a team wins or loses against the spread on a weekly basis (thanks to Covers.com for the numbers), I've figured out a good way to find great spots to bet teams who are either coming off of two or three straight games where they don't cover or even better, fading teams who are riding 2/3 straight covers.

The bigger the covers, the more likely I fade them.

The bigger the losses, the more likely I bet them.

We'll see if it works, but I'm liking the results so far.

From Week 6 to Week 7 -

Houston goes from getting destroyed by the Packers (losing to the spread by 22) to winning by 23.5 against the spread against Baltimore (look to bet Baltimore in Week 9 - they've lost five straight games against the spread - the only team with more than three straight games without a cover).

Jacksonville lost two straight games against the spread by a total of 48 points. They get a bye week and an inflated line against a subpar Oakland squad who was spotting Jacksonville 6 points against the spread. Jacksonville holds the lead most of the game, blows it, but still covers the spread by a field goal.

Pittsburgh has a prime-time loss against the lowly Titans, giving the Steelers their third straight non-cover. In Week 7, they fell behind 14-3 against the Bengals but took over the game from the second quarter one and ended up winning and covering. Like Baltimore, I plan on betting Cincinnati after their Week 8 bye since they have failed to cover in three straight.

The Bears got a week to rest in Week 6 after three impressive wins (covered by an average of 17 points/game). They were covering most of the Detroit game but lost it on a touchdown with less than a minute left, allowing Detroit backers (like this guy) to cash in. Sure, the Bears could (and should) have covered it, but they didn't. And since they failed to cover by the slightest of margins, perception of them is still positive. I find a second-week fade of the Bears to be in the works.

I don't know if I've stumbled into something good to use for the rest of the year and perhaps in future years or if I'm over-thinking this stuff. It's worth a shot for now since I've taken a look at this year's data and saw that there's great value in fading teams with (1) a mini-streak against the spread or (2) coming off a couple huge wins against the spread. Likewise, while it may feel icky to bet crappy teams like Jacksonville to cover, betting teams who have racked up several bad losses in a row are likely to have a point spread that is more of a reflection of their recent streak than what the team actually is. Even if you gain a couple points based on this perception, you gain an advantage.


Week 9 Picks

Fool's Gold (5-4 record) - Pick 1 Car +7.5 at Chicago...You look at the line and you can't believe it. How is Carolina not a 10+ point dog to the Bears, considered by many to be a top-3 team in the league? After all, Carolina's offense is a mess/the Bear's defense capitalizes on team's mistakes like no other. The Bears have a good rushing attack and a QB who hasn't made as many mistake this year, save the Packer debacle. Some interesting stats between the two teams: Carolina (5.9 yards/play - T6th), Chicago (5.2 y/p - T23rd); Chicago D (4.9 y/p - T-3), Carolina (5.5 - T 17th). Both teams average more per play than they allow on defense. What this means, I don't know. Just really wanted to distract you from the fact that Carolina is my Pick in this Fool's Gold that is begging for Chicago money.

Pick 2 Atl at Phil (-3) - Say what? The league's remaining undefeated team is an underdog to a team who has limped to a 3-3 record, a team who hasn't won a game by more than two points? Both teams are coming off of a bye, but Andy Reid prepares as well on byes as he does on increasing the size of his thighs on a daily basis. Atlanta allows the 8th most yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are one of the better teams (5.1). I expect Vick to have his best game against the Falcons game (no turnovers). I also expect McCoy to have his best day of the year against the Falcons (only the Bills allow more than the Falcons' 5.2 per carry). Philly wins by two scores.

Other Picks: Det -1, Pitt -4.5 (Already bet TB +6.5)
Other Possibles: Dallas (if it gets up to 3+), Denver -6 (NO has had 3 straight covers), Mia +2 (NYJ has had 3 straight covers), KC -2


Limited NCAA leans: Penn St, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Nebraska. With my bad Saturdays lately, I'm looking to cut back. Feeling my NFL roll right now

No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl

In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).

Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.

I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).

Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.

But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.

Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.

Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.

Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.

Possible playoff opponents

If they get a bye...

New Orleans -  This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.

If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.

If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)

Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.

Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.

Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.

Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.

NYG -  Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.

If they advance to NFC Championship

Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.

The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.

Money Where My Mouth Is

I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.

To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:

(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)

The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.

In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.

Week 16 Bets

I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).

Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.

NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.

Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.