B-Bo's 2013 (Way Way Too Early) NFL Preview

Every year, it seems like this blog comes earlier and earlier in the summer. And this year, it's technically before the Summer Solstice.

Why, it's the initial B-Bo Knows NFL preview blog, sponsored by (insert your company name here, I'm talking to you Cialis).

Initial thoughts of NFL entering this year...I may change this before the season, depending on injuries, etc.:

Teams that I expect to exceed their projected win totals by 2+ this year:

1. New Orleans - With Sean Payton returning to the helm, I expect the order to be restored in New Orleans. I'm expecting a first-round bye for the Saints and a return to the Super Bowl.

2. Carolina - Cam Newton got a lot of crap last year from the media for their poor start, but did not receive the proper credit for making the Panthers a competitive team down the stretch of 2012. I believe he will carry them into the playoffs in 2013.

3. Cleveland - While I don't believe Brandon Weeden will become a Pro-Bowl QB, I do think he will be a serviceable option for the Browns, and he has some decent skill guys around him on offense (Gordon, Little, Richardson), and what may be the quietest/best move of the offseason is Norv Turner hired as the team's offensive coordinator (dude can't coach a lick but is great as a coordinator, just like Wade Phillips). Their defense should be improved, as they focused their free agent spending and draft on that side of the ball. Call me crazy, but I think the Browns will make the playoffs this season. 

4. Cincy - Andy Dalton & AJ Green are establishing a great connection, and I believe this duo will ride the other's coattails to Hawaii for Pro Bowl appearances. They added a few pieces in the draft on the offensive side, and while they didn't do much on the defensive side as far as signings go, they got James Harrison for cheap. Plus, they had a strong defensive unit to begin with.

Teams that I expect to underachieve by at least 2 wins compared to their total:

1. Pittsburgh - I expect more regression from the Steelers before I expect a rise in wins. Big Ben seems like a 35-year old QB with all the wear-and-tear on his body. The strength of Pittsburgh is always the defense, and they were the best in terms of yards per play last year (4.6 yards/play), but it seems like most of their playmakers are on the wrong side of 30. This one is more of a hunch than anything and goes against the recent history of the Steelers.

2. Tampa Bay - I believe the NFC South will be the NFL's toughest division in 2013, so this is the main reason why I think Tampa will finish dead last and lower than their projected 7.5 wins by at least 2 games. I don't think the QB they have now (Freeman) is the answer, and while they have a Pro Bowler behind him in Doug Martin, recent trends show that running backs don't carry teams to success.

3. Indianapolis/Washington - I figured I'd liump these two together. Never before have the teams picking from #1 & #2 in the previous year's draft gone on to both make the playoffs. While I don't expect Luck & RG3 to regress too much, I do expect regression with both of their teams. The Colts were fortunate to finish 10-6 (Luck was turnover prone, they were outscored by their opponents last year). And my big question mark with the Redskins is whether RG3 is going to be rushed back too soon from his injury. I worry that the pressure that the media and fans put on Derrick Rose to return will be ten-fold for RG3, who rejuvinated a dead fanbase last year and is expected to build upon his rookie year with even higher expectations thanks to their division title.

I expect a lot of people to love both of these team's OVER total for wins, but I'm preaching the under for both teams, especially the Colts. Luck's magic down the stretch in games masked a lot of the problems that the Colts had on defense.

4. Minnesota - Another one of those cases where I think a team played over their heads and will have a regression to the mean. I'm a huge fan of All Day, but he literally carried this team to the playoffs last year. I don't think he can do it again without the help of Christian Ponder, who didn't really show himself to be much of a downfield threat. And missing Percy Harvin will not help matters.


Quick recap of my predictions by division:

AFC	NFC
North	North
Cin 11-5	Chi 10-6
Cle 9-7	GB 9-7
Balt 7-9	Det 9-7
Pitt 6-10	Min 5-11
South	South
Hou 11-5	NO 12-4
Indy 7-9	Car 10-6
Ten 6-10	Atl 9-7
Jax 5-11	TB 4-12
East	East
NE 12-4	NYG 10-6
NYJ 7-9	Phil 9-7
Mia 7-9	Dal 9-7
Buf 5-11	Wash 6-10
West	West
Den 10-6	SF 10-6
SD 9-7	Sea 9-7
KC 7-9	StL 8-8
Oak 4-12	Ariz 4-12

Playoff teams

AFC: (1) NE 12-4; (2) Cincy 11-5; (3) Hou 11-5; (4) Den 10-6; (5) SD 9-7; (6) Cle 9-7
NFC: (1) NO 12-4; (2) SF 10-6; (3) NYG 10-6; (4) Chi 10-6; (5) Car 10-6; (6) Sea 9-7

AFC Championship Game: Cincy over Den
NFC Championship Game: NO over SF

Super Bowl: NO over Cincy

For your information, here are the totals (as of 6/10/13) for each team, according to 5dimes (I have bolded what I think will be the side that comes in). I added some comments about my thoughts for each team below:

26002 ARI regular season wins under 5½

26004 ATL regular season wins under 10

26006 BAL regular season wins under 8½ - I expect regression here as well.

26008 BUF regular season wins under 6½

26009 CAR regular season wins over 7

26011 CHI regular season wins over 8½ - Trestman does wonders in first season at helm. 26013 CIN regular season wins over 8½ 26015 CLE regular season wins over 6 26017 DAL regular season wins over 8½ - As long as Jerry Jones is owner and Romo is QB, I am feeling 9-7 records for Dallas every year. 26020 DEN regular season wins under 11½ 26021 DET regular season wins over 8 - Reggie Bush - best pick-up in NFC North

26024 GB regular season wins under 10½

26025 HOU regular season wins over 10½

26028 IND regular season wins under 8½

26030 JAX regular season wins under 5

26032 KC regular season wins under 7½

26034 MIA regular season wins under 8

26036 MIN regular season wins under 7½

26037 NE regular season wins over 11½ - new year, same Patriots

26039 NOR regular season wins over 9

26041 NYG regular season wins over 9 - back to division champs status

26043 NYJ regular season wins over 6½

26046 OAK regular season wins under 5½

26047 PHI regular season wins over 7½ - Kelly surprises amid low expectations for the Eagles this year.

26050 PIT regular season wins under 9

26051 SD regular season wins over 7½

26054 SF regular season wins under 11½ - Crabtree will be difficult loss for offense at first, especially with how Kaepernick relied on him. With tougher division/schedule, I expect 9/10 wins.

26056 SEA regular season wins under 10½ - Like Luck/RG3, I expect some regression w/ Russell Wilson. Still should contend for divison.

26057 STL regular season wins over 7½ - I liked their draft/offseason moves. Dark horse for division title, pending Bradford's development.

26060 TB regular season wins under 7½

26062 TEN regular season wins under 6½

26064 WAS regular season wins under 8

NFL Week 12

As many of you have already read many times, I went to a Bears game for the second week in a row. Like the week before, I witnessed a pathetic Bears offense and eventual loss - combined losses to Houston & San Francisco by a 42-10 margin.

I promise to all Bears fans that I will not attend any more of their games this year, as I have witnessed 67% of their losses. Do I think they'll bounce back this week? Yes I do. Will I bet it? No I won't. Should I keep asking myself questions and then answering them? I think I should stop.

With only 12 games on Sunday and a dud of a game on Monday, there's not much on the slate that catches my eye. I'll likely be able to catch some/all of the Saints/49ers game, which I believe is the clear afternoon game of the day (Packers at Giants at night is the clear game of the day).

Thoughts on each game:

Oakland +8 at Cincy: Oakland fits the system here - blowout losses against the spread in their last three games & Cincy w/ blowout wins against the spread in their last two. Likely bet on Oakland, even though I picked Cincy in a couple of survivor pools.

Pitt -1.5 at Cle: I like Cleveland here. One of those 2-8 records that really doesn't tell the story on how competitive they've been this year. Probably won't bet it, but it'll likely be Cleveland or nothing here.

Buf +3 at Indy: This is the Fool's Gold Play of the week. Everyone loves Indy here, but they have no defense and I believe Buffalo will be able to move the ball well on the ground against them (Indy allows 4.7 yards/carry - 4th worst - while Spiller leads the league w/ 6.6 yards/carry). Indy is not as good as their 6-4 shows. Buffalo will be a bet

Denver -10.5 at KC: For me here, it's either KC +10.5 or no play. Divisional rivalry game - you can usually throw records out the window. KC sprung an upset last year against GB in a similar spot of the year - be careful backing Denver here.

Ten -4 at Jax: MC Hammer Game of the Week. As in, I can't touch this one on either end. No way can I lay points with Tennessee on the road, but no way I can bet on Jacksonville (again) at home, where they've lost each game by double digits.

Atl -1 at TB: Should be the best of the Noon time games. A Tampa win here could put them in good position for a playoff push for the rest of the year. No leans here.

Sea -3 at Mia: Mia fits the system of a team who hasn't covered in three straight. Likely to take them here. I don't think Seattle has earned the right to be road favorites yet.

Balt (pick'em) at SD: I already bet SD here. Great spot for them (or at least great spot to fade Baltimore). Ravens are in the middle of a Pittsburgh sandwich on their schedule and in the middle is a game thousands of miles away. Big let down spot here.

SF -1 at NO: My only worry here is Kaepernick having a rough go in his first road start in what may be the noisiest stadium in the league, but overall, I believe San Fran should be able to move the ball consistently and slow down NO enough to take this one. May bet San Fran. System play here in effect with NO winning three straight against the spread (which means fade them).

StL +1 at Ariz: Another MC Hammer Game. Arizona hasn't won since starting 4-0. I think they win here, but I sure as hell won't bet on it.

GB +2.5 at NYG: With public perception on the Giants being as low as its been this year since their opener against the Cowboys, this should be a good time to back them, especially after a bye week.

Car -2.5 at Phil: Another ugly game. Can't believe Carolina is a road favorite here, but find it hard to trust Philly. At all. No bet.



Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. Have a good weekend.

San Franchised - Jen's 30th Bday in Words & Pics

On the Golden Gate w/ my Girl of Gold

Good morning y'all.

So you're probably wondering how Jen's birthday trip to San Fran was...What's that, you caught all of our pictures and statuses on Facebook? Well...uhm....read this anyways.

Actually, there's a lot more to our trip than what was mentioned on the incessant messages, the latter of which were not replied to for the simple fact that the Niners absolutely Pwned the Bears on Monday Night Football.

(As I was waiting to get me and Jen some In-N-Out Burger, I overheard some idiot Bears fan backing out of a bet he made with a 49ers friend of his which would require him to shave his head since the Bears lost. I absolutely hate...HATE...when people back out of bets - more on In-N-Out later).

Happy 30th to Jen!

Here's some randomness from the trip:

The Full House houses (we think)

1. Planes, Trains, Automobiles...and many more forms of transportation were taken on our trip. Starting from our flight to San Francisco, here's how our daily transportation went:
   
   Saturday: Car to Airport, Plane, Shuttle Bus
   Sunday: Walk to Golden Gate (about a 3-to-4 mile walk from our place), Taxi (including a free ride down crookedest street of Lombard Street), Boat to Alcatraz
   Monday: Walk through Lombard Street, Trolley to Chinatown, Taxi to the Painted Ladies, Bus to the Full House houses and three more bus rides, including a round-trip to/from the Niners game
   Tuesday: Shuttle, plane, car back to our Chi-town palace.
   
   Needless to say, we made the most out of every type of available transportation in the past four days.
   
2. Did You Know....That Interstate 80 ends in San Francisco? It feels like I-80 runs through every major city. I wonder how long it would take to drive from one end to the other.
   
3. It feels like big upsets in sports occur whenever I'm on vacation and I can't watch them. Oregon loses to Stanford (which I heard the end to in the shuttlebus radio), Baylor destroys Kansas State, which moves Notre Dame to the #1 spot for the first time in 400 years*. I'm not sure which upset I'm more surprised with, but anyone who watches college football knows that November is a great month for these upsets of previously unbeaten teams. It's so so hard to play a great game for all 12/13 games before the Bowl season comes around. Even though Matt Barkley is out this week, I wouldn't be shocked if Notre Dame lost this week - just so hard to win week in/week out.
   
   *slight exaggeration
4. Jen had a great birthday trip here, except...for her experience at Candlestick. And no, I'm not just talking about the drubbing that her Bears took. I was not aware of the Stick's hostile treatment of visiting fans until earlier this year when reading about some Saints' fans experiencing some harassing douchebags. When she went to go get some food during the game, Jen experienced some of this as she was waiting in line and was right near some idiots who were fighting. Also, some guy was giving her a hard time for wearing her Peppers jersey and was questioning her knowledge of what the GSH initials were in reference to (she correctly said George Halas, while the idiot thought it may have been for Gale Sayers).
   
   I know all teams have their share of assholes at games, but I felt bad that Jen had to experience this, especially with me not being there at the time to help her out of the situation.
5. As always, the best parts of any trip are the ones you don't expect or plan...and this trip was no exception. It's hard for us to determine what spontaneous moment we liked the best from our trip. There was the moment where a homeless guy scared the crap out of Jen by hiding behind a tree branch full of leaves that he was holding, only to pop out and scare her. There was also our cab driver who was a delight and stopped our taxi meter about 10 minutes before we got out of the cab - during that time, he drove us down the crooked part of Lombard Street (the crookedest street in the country/world). If you have the chance to go to San Fran, you should see this street.



The cheerleaders came by to say Hi (and then left really quick after that)

6. People watching at Monday Night Football. Our great seats at the game allowed us to see a few celebrities walking the sidelines before the game. Among them were Jeremy Piven (actor), Drew Rosenhaus (NFL Super Agent - think new age version of Jerry Maguire) & the ESPN crew (Trent Dilfer and old 49er Steve Young among them). Oh yeah, and there were the cheerleaders dancing in front of us. Yeahhhhh...
   
   
7. San Fran is so damn expensive. It's not normal to want to go back to Chicago because the prices are cheaper, but that's the case when comparing the Gold Rush city to the Windy one. It felt like everything was Chicago prices multiplied by an additional 20%. I'd love to live in the city if it wasn't for the damn prices.
8. You know you're a fatass...when you're charging Diet Cokes that you are buying from a vending machine at your hotel. I can't believe my first ever use of EasyPass was to buy cold carbonated beverages for me and Jen from a Coke machine. I can hear all of you shaking your head...and I don't blame you.
9. No matter whether Cutler played or not, the Bears would not have won the game we went to. If you're not a football fan, you may not know Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears starter) missed his first game of the year due to a concussion, leaving them with backup Jason Campbell to face a San Francisco 49ers defense whose mouth was foaming at the possibility of facing the Bears' weak offensive front and slow-footed backup. Cutler would have done better (I hope), but he hasn't really done anything this year to make me think he would have been able to match Colin Kaepernick's offensive output.



Jen trying not to show her disappointed face

10. If you're a fan of historical stuff, there's no question that you should visit Alcatraz. I believe Jen's favorite site on the trip was visiting Golden Gate Bridge, which is an excellent choice and a must-do for anyone visiting the city. However, the one thing I didn't do on my trip in January was the one big thing missing from my San Francisco experience - visiting Alcatraz. Getting to hear the history of the prison, including how the US government helped form the island into an inescapable (supposedly) fortress, was an amazing story. Hearing of all the escape stories from the island made me realize just how clever criminals can be - if only they applied that same reasoning and intelligence in the real world as upright citizens. I read the book about some of these escapes on the flight home - loved it. As far as anyone knows, no one has ever successfully escaped Alcatraz (many have drowned or died from hypothermia since the San Francisco Bay are so cold - some folks were never found and are assumed dead).



Fitting location for this Alcatraz Pic

11. In-N-Out Burger was ok...but definitely not better than Five Guys. Yeah, I said it. Me and Jen both devoured our double double's, don't get me wrong. They just weren't the high quality burger that we've grown to love from Five Guys. If you disagree, you are wrong. Way way wrong.

Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: San Francisco

As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.

Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.

My seventh feature highlights an NFC West team, the best one in my opinion. Brad Schmidgall is a fellow U of I alumus. I got the pleasure of meeting him in the Garner dorms on the Champaign side of campus and recently ran into him at a social event for healthcare professionals. He is also a 49ers fan - something I can relate to.

I will also be including myself in this story and talking in the third person. If you can't handle that, then Brian says you're shit out of luck.

Editors note: Brad and I, along with one of his 49ers fans, may be coming up with a 49ers fan blog. We still have to work out the details - it will likely be throwing crap at the wall at first until we see what sticks. It will likely feature game recap, our thoughts on the next week's game and a fantasy football/gambling angle to it.

Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints 
4. Minnesota Vikings 
5. Denver Broncos

6. Kansas City Chiefs

Brad Schmidgall and Brian Bolek may have been separated by hundreds of miles as kids, but they shared a common link that they would discover when they lived on the same floor of the Garner dorms at the University of Illinois in 2002.

Both gentlemen were fans of an NFL team thousands of miles and two time zones away in California. They both started following the San Francisco 49ers right around the time Joe Montana wrapped up his fourth Super Bowl win with the team, which then transitioned into the Steve Young era.

Brad (right) on Metrodome surface before the start of the Niners/Vikings game in 2009

"I'd say I followed the Bears as well as a kid," Brian said, "especially with them being on TV every Sunday. When a Sunday ticket doesn't exist and you can't go to a bar, you end up watching a lot of Bears game by default."

Brian can sadly remember a project he did in junior high for a required home economics class, where he made a Bears pillow with Rashaan Salaam's name and jersey number on it. It was near that time where Brian's allegiance went strictly to the Niners, although he can't remember why it happened around then.

Brad grew up in Morton, IL, over 150 miles southwest of Chicago, and was a St. Louis Cardinals fan. Since St. Louis had no pro-football team at the time, Brad started following the 49ers.

Like Brian, he doesn't root for or against the Bears. But Brad does find it annoying at times to turn on sports radio during the regular season.

"DirecTV makes it easier, and I have a ton of friends that root for teams other than the Bears," said Brad, who has lived in Chicago for almost seven years. "I do wish there was a 49ers bar nearby I could hit up for big games."

Between the two, they have attended a combined three 49ers games. Brad saw a game that the Niners lost on a last-second heave by Brett Favre in the Metrodome during Favre's brief run on the Vikings, while Brian saw one of the best playoff games of all time in January against the Saints.

That made up for the clunker of a game he saw in 2009 featuring the Bears and the Niners on a Thursday night game, won by the 49ers 10-6. The game featured 5 Jay Cutler interceptions, but luckily, the forgettable game was more easily forgotten with the combination of beer and lack of food consumed by Brian.

"That game was a disaster, and I say that despite the fact the Niners won," Brian said. "At least me and my friend had good seats for the game."

Brad and Brian will be going to separate games this year - with Brad attending the Niners' home opener against the Lions in Week 2 while Brian and his girlfriend Jen will be going to the Niners/Bears Monday night game in November.

Speaking of the 2012 season, Brad and Brian have different views on the Niners. Both guys like the moves the team has made in the offseason, particularly drafting LaMichael James, a Darren Sproles-like backfield option. Brian believes the division race will be tighter than most people expect, with a Niners regression to about nine wins this year but still winning the division. Brad is a little more optimistic, with the Super Bowl as his team's projection.

"I think their defense is too good for seven losses, plus the offensive weapons we added will improve us overall," Brad said. "The NFC West is still pretty weak though, so I don't see us winning fewer than 10 games."

Brian (right) at Niners/Saints playoff game. He may have had a few beverages.

They both agree that the Seahawks will be the team's biggest obstacle in winning the division. Brian originally thought Arizona may be the team who might contend for the NFC West earlier this offseason, but his thoughts have changed as he has seen the Cardinals struggle mightily at the quarterback position, the one position Brian believes the Niners are still missing in order to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender.

"Alex Smith had a good run for us last year, but I still don't think he is the long term answer," Brian said. "Look at how poorly he did in the red-zone last year. I hope Randy Moss can help with that, but I think it's more of a quarterback problem than a receiver problem."

	Brian Bolek		Brad Schmidgall
	(27 yrs near/in Chicago)		(6.5 years in Chicago)
Favorite team	49ers		49ers
A fan since…	early 90s		early 90s
# of games attended	2 (both in San Fran)		1 (in Minnesota)
Choice of Team Consumption	DirecTV		DirecTV - regular season
			Joe's Bar - postseason
Favorite Player All-Time	Jerry Rice		Joe Montana
Favorite Player Currently	Patrick Willis		Patrick Willis &
			Vernon Davis
	9-7, Division Champs,		11-5, Division Champs
2012 Prediction	(loss in WC round)		Super Bowl bound
Vegas Projection for team	10 wins		10 wins
(as of 9-3-12) 5dimes.eu
Over/under?	Under		Over
Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu	(-245 - would need to
	wager 245 to win 100
Super Bowl odds
(as of 9-3-12) - 5dimes.eu	13/1 (+1300)