Facing the Heat: Why Refs are the Wrong Focus for Miami's Success

The Miami Heat are a day removed from going up 2-1 in their series against the Chicago Bulls, but it has nothing to do with the skill level of the Heat. At least that's what many in my social network would like you to believe.

• "I guess it's the Bulls versus the Heat/refs"
• "The Bulls are playing 5 on 8"
  

Those are a couple of quotes I came across (among many) since the Bulls/Heat series started. It's all the same complaints recycled from the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals, when the Heat downed the Bulls in 5 games to reach the NBA Finals.

Blaming the refs is the easiest and laziest argument that a fan can make. It works as the perfect defense mechanism when your team loses - I saw this first hand when my boys lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens. Many Niners fans put a big chunk of the blame on the striped shirts for not calling a defensive hold against the Ravens on the Niners' last offensive play in the red zone (a fourth down) when San Fran was down by 5 late in the game.

What those fans failed to mention was the thorough beat-down that the Niners got in the first half that put them in a huge hole. They fail to mention the way Jacoby Jones and others tore apart their secondary and special teams units - the match-ups that ultimately failed the Niners. Just like a basketball game, there will be calls that go against an NFL team, even on the highest stage of the game. That doesn't mean that the referees caused the team to lose. The Niners' chances should have never hinged on a judgement call from the zebras - they shot themselves in the foot too often early on to blame officials for a non-call, which didn't even guarantee them a victory (they still would have needed to score a touchdown, which they failed to do on the previous three plays from the same yard line in the red zone).

The same goes for the bitching that many Bulls fans have done when their team loses to the Heat. They'll call Lebron a whiner (they call him much worse than this, but I have to limit my use of the female dog reference to one mention per paragraph). They'll say that the refs have it in for the Heat and want to see them win the title again.

If the NBA was as rigged as everyone would like you to believe, do you really believe there would have been NBA Finals match-ups like the Spurs/Pistons, Spurs/Nets (or Spurs/anyone), Lakers/Magic? The Spurs are one of the least attractive great teams in NBA history (were never good for ratings), yet in the past 10 years have made the Finals three times (winning all three appearances in 2003, 2005, 2007 in addition to their 1999 appearance). Unless you're an NBA junkie or a fan of one of those teams, I doubt you gave serious thought to watching any of the series mentioned above. And the ratings for those series (particularly the Spurs' ones) prove you likely didn't tune in. If it's all about ratings and money, then the rigging theory doesn't make sense in those situations.

The Heat are not winning because of the refs. They're winning because they're a great team - they did go 66-16 in the regular season after all, outscoring their opponents by an average of 8 points per game. They didn't win 27 straight games this year because the striped shirts assisted them. They had that streak because they were dominant on both ends of the ball, outscoring their opponents by a 105-93 margin during their historic streak.

Speaking of history, Lebron had one of the quietest historical seasons in NBA history this year, shooting an unreal 56.5% from the field, 40.5% from three-point territory (both career highs by far), while averaging nearly 27 points, 8 rebounds (career high set this year) & 7 assists per game. He has improved his field goal percentage every season since the 2006-07 season while continuing to maintain his stellar stats across the board in every other category.

The above facts are not the result of the refs handing them wins, but because of amazing talent and a core who's had the chance to gel together for the past 3 years to become the best team in the league.

Yes, there are times when it gets annoying to see Lebron pout when he doesn't get a call, but let's not act like this is a trait exclusive to the Heat. Whenever I watch Noah or Boozer foul a guy, immediate looks of disgust almost always accompany the whistle and the calling of their number for a personal foul. There's probably at least one or two guys on every team in the league that have the "you gotta be kidding me!" look when they get called for a foul. But when it's your guy complaining, Joe Fan, who blindly supports anything the team does, will see the call the same way as the complaining player and completely neglects the hypocritical nature of their complaints. So yeah, the bitching about Lebron pouting seems silly.

And it's funny that of all teams, Bulls fans will complain about the star treatment that Lebron gets when a half NBA generation ago, they were witnesses to Air Jordan, who got his fair share of calls in his favor (his last shot with the Bulls when he pushed off on Byron Russell was the perfect example - if Lebron did that, Bulls fans would scream "Bullshit!")

Your team gets calls too. You're just pretending it doesn't happen.

I'm not saying that the Heat don't get any calls in their favor - they do. But I don't believe they get any more or less calls in their favor than most teams in the league, although many of you reading this might wholeheartedly disagree. It's hard to remove fandom with the judgement of other teams and referees. But to think there's a conspiracy theory every time your team loses to a great team who you think is getting hundreds more favorable calls than your team, that's just your fandom talking. Watch a random game of any sport involving two teams you don't care anything about, and you'll see that the bad calls go both ways and usually balance out in the long run.

And think about how many times your team gets breaks from referees. Oh wait, you can't, because they never make calls in your team's favor. I bet you can name 20 instances of refs being against your team before you can name a situation where a call benefited your team. You're way more likely to remember the times that an external force outside of your players (the refs) supposedly caused your team to lose than you are to remember when the refs may have made a big call in your favor to aid a victory. When your team wins, you attribute your team's win to their immense skill, not because they had a beneficial call or set of calls in a game. When your team loses, it's because the refs screwed them over. You can't have it both ways.

I fully expect the Heat to close this series out - if not in 5 games, then probably 6. And I also fully expect that the refs will be the root blame of the Bulls defeat, not the Heat's players, who have shot 60% & 50% in their past two games against a tough Bulls defense. Even without some defensive stoppers like Deng & Hinrich, the Bulls' defense is still a top-notch unit, making the Heat's hot shooting even more impressive.

Give some credit where credit is due. The Heat are good - damn good. I know you hate them, which is probably another reason why you might say the refs are favoring them. For the next set of games, try going 5 or 10 minutes without saying the word "referee" and instead focus on the players making the plays - I bet you can't.

The Heat will get a call here and there that goes in their favor, but it won't be the reason they win the series. They'll win it because they're better. Simple as that. 

An Ordinary April Day, An Extraordinary Sports Day

When my weekend started with a hungry cat waking me up and basically begging me to go to Jewel in my gym shorts at around 11:30am, I didn't think that much could be made of this day. Sure, I had my plans for the day: watch parts of the NFL draft and the Bulls game. Yeah, a little action on the game didn't hurt, but I would have wanted to watch the game anyways - I love NBA playoff games.

However, between the two events, I could never have anticipated that the next 2-4 hours would present itself with a couple of great sports moments that came out of nowhere and reaffirmed why I have loved sports since raising myself on it since I was a 4 or 5 year old.

Faith Yes (Latti)More

At around the same time the Bulls game was starting, the San Francisco 49ers (my boys) were drafting in the fourth round of the NFL draft. I'm not even sure why I had the draft on. At that point in the draft, I'll usually just ignore the draft on TV and casually read a story about the picks later in the day, but something had me gravitating towards the 4th round. Who would the Niners pick?

I had heard Marcus Lattimore on the Dan Patrick Show earlier in the week mention that there were a few teams that were interested in drafting him in the mid-rounds, despite tearing nearly every important leg ligament back in October. One of those teams was the Niners, whose running back stable is pretty strong and also has a starting RB who had some bad leg injuries while in college (Frank Gore). And that guy didn't turn out so badly, did he?

You see where this story is going - the Niners went ahead and selected Lattimore with the 131st overall pick in this year's draft, about the halfway point of the draft. However, if he can overcome his injury, there's many who think he could be the best player in this draft class. Needless to say, I marked out and screamed for the first time for a fourth round pick in my lifetime.

Lattimore may not be able to overcome the several severe leg injuries that he has suffered throughout the years, but that's not the point today. The story from today is one of hope - the football equivalent of the part of Spring Training where pitchers and catchers report. As a sports fan, all you want is some hope for your team from time to time - especially during offseason moments when your next year's team is being built.

Consider me among the millions of many hopeful Niners fans who believe. For the first time since the Super Bowl ended with my boys on the wrong end of the Super Bowl, I can officially ask...is it NFL yet?

DAAAAAAA BULLS

And that Bulls games that I mentioned? At first, it was your average playoff game. Strong first half shooting by both teams had me thinking that it was going to be a close game. I had bet the Bulls to cover the 3 point spread for the game. They led by 3 at the half, but I wasn't feeling strong about the bet, so I "bought out of the bet" (bet the Nets to win the 2nd half), which essentially made it so it didn't matter what happened in the second half - I broke even.

My buying out bet looked smart for the majority of the second half, until Nate Robinson, NBA's version of Mighty Mouse, decided to turn in one of the best NBA Playoff performances in recent memory. The Bulls stormed back from a double digit deficit with just over 3 minutes left to force overtime thanks to the shooting exploits of Mr. Robinson.

The first overtime featured twists and turns that were befitting of an all-time classic game. Robinson's bank shot with 2 seconds put the Bulls ahead by two, only to be matched by Joe Johnson's buzzer shot that forced a second overtime.

At that time, I left my apartment in a frenetic fast-walking pace (I had to meet Jen at her work and thought with a fast walk and leaving early that I could catch the end of the second overtime). I missed the second overtime, but luckily got to the bar next to Jen's work to catch most of the third overtime.

As I sat there and enjoyed one of my first Summy Shandys of 2013, I overheard several groups of people saying that they left this game over an hour before (when they were trailing in the fourth quarter). What the hell - how can you leave any game early, especially a playoff game? I don't care about the traffic implications. If you're willing to buy tickets for a playoff game AND attend it, you have to see the game all the way through. A regular season game, I still think you sit through the entire game, but I'll at least excuse it a little bit, especially since it's only one of 82 (or w/ baseball, 162, etc.).

But leaving during a playoff game? It's only one of seven guaranteed games in a playoff series (if you're lucky enough to win some games in it). I couldn't imagine buying tickets to a Bulls game like that and leaving early because the game was "out of hand" or "I wanted to beat traffic". I wish the United Center took pictures of these people and never let them attend another playoff game again.

Anywho, I'm waaaaay off track. The Bulls ended up winning the game in the third overtime (my second bet on the Nets ended up being a loser). The game is an instant classic. A game which I am currently watching on replay.

I never thought that an ordinary day in sports could turn into one which reaffirmed why I love it so much. Thanks to Lattimore and Nate Robinson, I was able to remember what attracted me to sports in the first place - hope, drama, redemption, success.

Like the cat when I came home with food, my day's appetite was fulfilled.

A Bunch of Bull: Why Derrick Rose Owes You Nothing

Remember the last time Derrick played in garbage time? Yeahhhh

Did you lend him $50 for a pair of shoes years back? Did you cover his lunch at Wild Wings and he promised to get you back?

No and no? Ok then. Derrick Rose doesn't owe you a thing.

Not a goddamn thing.


You say he owes you to play out the end of the regular season. You pay his salary after all, or so you say - actually Jerry Reinsdorf does. If anything, he would owe it to his team and organization, and I'd argue that even that is false. When a man's health is in question, he owes nothing to anyone.

You say he should play because he is practicing just fine, that he's running around, taking shots and looking decent. Do you really know how he is? Practice versus game is a different beast. Plus, if it happens to be a mental issue and he just doesn't think he's ready, do you really trust him to be his elite self right now?

Sure, you say you don't expect him to dominate right away, but why demand that he plays at all this year, especially if he is not going to be dominant?

You say that other athletes recently have recovered from ACL injuries in a faster time period (Adrian Peterson has officially ruined the reasonable recovery time for these injuries - beware RGIII). It's not reasonable to expect Rose's ACL to heal as fast as a guy like AP's (or for anyone who has had quick recoveries from the type of injury Rose has had). Everyone's body is built differently and they all heal differently, so you can't expect one case to be like another.

Are you questioning his heart if he is not playing? Just because we see guys like Michael Jordan playing through a flu and we see Brett Favre tough out injuries for years to start over 300 straight games, we expect our stars to "gut it out and play". Like I said before, whether it's still his injury that is affecting him or if he just doesn't believe that he is ready to come back mentally, it does him no good to be out there.

Rose will be 25 years old when the 2013-14 season begins. He has an entire future of basketball to worry about. It might not be as long of a career as Steve Nash has had, especially if Rose continues with his aggressive style of driving to the hoop against the taller trees of the NBA. Nevertheless, it's still a decade of potential greatness that he has no reason to risk on some meaningless regular season games. Besides, this is not a Bulls team that can be considered an NBA Finals team, especially with how dominant the Heat have been. Don't be deceived by the Bulls' regular season victories this year against the Heat - they mean nothing come playoff time. The Heat will run through the East.

With this being Spring/baseball season, now's as good of a time to say this to a Chicago fan...Wait till Next Year

If you ask me (and I know you did, since you're still reading), I think he should sit this season out, get everything fully healed, and get ready for the 2013 season. He has too bright of a future to risk for this year.

You think he owes it to you, the fan who sits on his ass at the United Center with popcorn butter and ketchup covering his #1 jersey, to play this season? He owes you nothing.

If anything, you owe him a little patience. Wouldn't you rather have a healthy Rose next year than a hobbled one (whether it be physically or mentally hobbled) playing?

Talents like Rose don't come around often, so be patient and wait for the return of #1 next year. Believe me, it will be worth the wait.

B List: Agony of the Heat (List 6)

This LBJ didn't make any promises about Vietnam. Instead, the basketball version declared that he would win "not 5, not 6, not 7..." NBA titles. In their own ways, both Lyndon Johnson & LeBron James would find ways to vilify themselves with their own words.

One down, "not 6" to go for LBJ Jr. to live up to his words. His team did what many thought they were capable of, but were unlikely to do, at least this time around against a talented Oklahoma City Thunder squad that features some of the best collection of young talent that the NBA has seen in quite some time.

I thought the Heat would win based on their experience from last year, but I didn't think they would completely dismantle the Thunder. Outside of a poor second half in Game 1 and poor 1st quarter in Game 4, the Heat destroyed the Thunder on both ends of the floor. LeBron showed what happens when the most talented player in the NBA puts forth maximum effort to achieve his goal. It's a scary thought for NBA teams who have to face him in the next 6-7 years.

Below are 7 (not 5, not 6) thoughts concerning the Heat as to where they stand now and looking forward to what could be a prolonged run of championships for the most hated squad in the NBA.

7. The Eastern Conference looks like a cakewalk for the foreseeable future. I know most Bulls fans would disagree, but I think last year was their best chance in the Miami/LeBron era to make it to the Finals. Outside of Rose, the Bulls have no legit scorer that can create his own shot. Over the course of history, the NBA has shown itself to be a sport where you need at least 2 of the top 10/20 talents on a team to win titles.  If they don't land a big fish like Dwight Howard, I don't think they can reasonably beat the Heat in the near future. I think the Bulls have maximized their talents in each of the last two regular seasons.  Even if Rose comes back mid-season next year, I don't think he'll be all that sharp.

The Pacers are a team on the rise, but outside of Granger, they don't have a complimentary superstar (although Roy Hibbert is developing into a solid player). The Celtics' realistic window for title shots was 2008-2010. The Knicks may have the best shot of rising from the ashes outside of these teams in the East, but that may be a stretch.

If you look at it objectively, it could be easy to see the Heat winning the East for the next 4-5 years if the teams above don't make major roster moves.

6. They should consider moving Dwyane Wade.  I read this online earlier, and it made some sense. With how reckless and physical Wade has played in his 9 year career, his body has taken more of a toll than most of the same length career. In addition to missing 17 games this year due to injury, Wade has also missed significant time (20+ games in a year) in three other years due to injury. Wade's numbers don't show it yet, but I think there could be some value in trading him to get more depth, especially while he has some miles on the treads.

5. No matter how many titles they win, Coach Erik Spoelstra will never get any credit. There aren't too many coaches who could go under the radar or get as little of the team's credit as Spoelstra has. Many people (perhaps idiots) speculated that he would be canned if they didn't win a title this year. I don't know a whole bunch about him other than his unusual rise up the ladder from video editor to coach. I know Pat Riley loves the guy - not sure how unconditional that love would be if they fell short again though. This buys Spoelstra at least another two years - of which I believe the Heat to win at least one championship in that time (possibly both). I'm not sure if it's fair that he doesn't get much credit, but he should get some.

4. LeBron needs to stay hungry and continue to play with a chip on his shoulder. Look at what happened with Dallas this year. Dirk was so out of shape that his coaches recommended that he take time off during the season to get back into shape. I'm not sure if he didn't think there would be a season or what, but the way he entered this year gave people the impression that one title was enough for him. I definitely don't see LeBron having the same problem in terms of entering the 2012-13 season with a beer belly, but I do think he needs to find a way to avoid the post-first-title hangover that seemed to accompany Nowitzki. Look at how LBJ played in this year's playoffs - he took his game to a level that wasn't surprising given his talents, but surprised people given his recent bad fortune in the playoffs. It goes to show how talented LBJ is that "bad fortune" in your career means making it to 2 NBA Finals & a conference final before the age of 27. If he can stay hungry and not get a hangover, I believe the Heat (including this year) will win 4 or 5 out of the next 6 titles.

3. Outside of themselves, the biggest obstacle to a prolonged NBA title run for the Heat will be the Thunder. I believe that the Thunder will remain the best in the west for the next 3-4 years, presuming they keep their core of Durant, Westbrook & Ibaka (I think Harden will sign elsewhere for a max contract). It will be nearly impossible for the Thunder to maintain their current collection of talent given potential salary cap problems. To those who know basketball, superstars like Durant rarely win at a young age - it usually takes one or two lumps to the forehead to know what it takes to win the title. I do think Durant will win one or two titles in his career, but I think it may not be for a few more years.

2. The Heat winning the title was good for the NBA.  My friend Nick said he will continue to hate the Heat much like he hates the Yankees. I bet if you polled 100 random sports fans who their least favorite team in NBA/MLB was, the Heat and Yankees would be the frontrunners to win those titles. Think - what did it take for everyone to hate the Yankees so much? The answer: titles...and lots of 'em. If the Yankees currently had as many titles as the Cubs, do you think people would hate them as much? Sports fans tend to hate teams that have prolonged runs of success. People hated the Heat before they won anything, so you can only imagine now how much more they will hate the Heat if they go on a Bulls-like 6-of-8 run here. I believe this hate for the Heat will equal ratings gold for the NBA.

Unlike MJ, whose commercial appeal defined him more than his selfish, asshole attitude, LeBron doesn't have the same appeal with the mainstream media. I don't know if it's people still holding that bad 48-hour stretch of hosting a primetime show to declare where he was taking his talents and then stating how many titles he was going to win against him, but LeBron has taken the most shit from haters in the Twitter era of basketball. I think MJ should be lucky he didn't play in this social media era, because his attitude and personality would have gotten more exposure than it did back in the day, where it seemed like folks in the media were afraid to call out MJ on his discretions off the court.

1. My prediction: by the end of his career, LeBron will have as many titles as Jordan. While they won their first titles at the same age, LeBron also had a few more seasons underneath his belt. Both needed the help of other Hall of Fame/All-Star quality people around him to win it all (LBJ has Wade & Bosh, MJ had Pippen & Phil Jackson). Both needed to overcome the "so close, yet so far" feeling - LeBron losing to the Spurs & Mavs in separate NBA Finals, MJ being dominated by the Pistons for that three year stretch.

Once MJ got going, the only thing that really stopped him was his first brief retirement, which some conspiracy folks believe was a suspension for his gambling ways. In his last 6 full seasons with the Bulls, Jordan led them to titles, including setting a record for most wins in a year with 72 in 1995-96. I don't know if LeBron (or anyone) will ever beat this record, but I do believe LeBron, if surrounded with the right talent, can start a similar title run.

I know living in Chicago, we have the idea in our heads that MJ won these titles by himself - he didn't. Every superstar needs some semblance of talent around him to succeed on the biggest stage. I think the core of LBJ & Bosh (assuming my scenario above plays out and Wade ends up getting traded) would be as good of a starting point as anybody in the NBA for a prolonged run of titles.

Much of this stuff above is opinion and speculation, so feel free to dissect it. I'm not always the best when it comes to predicting what will happen.

All I know is, whether you hate the Heat or not, you better be ready to see them in the last two series of the NBA playoffs every year for a while.

Good News for People Who Love Bad News - Sports Edition

Maybe it just seems like a lot because of the news cycle being cable news'd and Twitter'd, but it sure seems like there's been a lot of bad news coming from the sporting arena in the past week.

Rose's Thorn

Saturday saw the end of the Bulls' season with the injury to Derrick Rose. I didn't have them winning the East even if he was healthy, but it seems like everyone (experts, media and public) believes that the Bulls needed a healthy Rose to have a chance to compete for the title. The Bulls looked hot out of the gate in Game 2 by taking a 9 point lead into the second half, perhaps playing off of the emotion of trying to prove themselves absent their point guard. However, Philly charged back quickly and beat the Bulls handily in the second half while evening the series. I still think the Bulls will win the series, but the next series against Boston or Atlanta may prove to be too much w/o their leader.

In case you were curious, the fire extinguisher glass won--again.

On Monday, Amare Stoudemire put a new meaning to attacking the glass. Unfortunately, this attack away from the basketball court. Fortunately, it involved him only using one hand instead of two. In frustration, Stoudemire punched a glass with his left hand after the Knicks' 10 point loss in Miami which put New York down 2-0 in the best of 7 series. He will miss Game 3 and is expected to miss the rest of the series. Which means he'll miss Games 3 & 4. Luckily this wasn't the Eastern Conference Finals or NBA Finals, or else we'd be hearing a lot more about this.






Tuesday had a faux pas of a different kind. If you use Covers.com for gambling advice or navigate ESPN.com's back pages, you may have heard of the name Sarah Phillips before Tuesday. This story was featured prominently enough on Twitter yesterday to trend nationally. The young freelancer from Oregon was the subject of a damning profile on the site Deadspin.com that showed Sarah and a longtime friend/boyfriend scamming people through the use of these writing platforms and social media (notably "buying" followers on Twitter). They promised part-ownership in their start-up website for a certain amount of money from people.

Luckily, they didn't scam too many people out of their money. Unfortunately, her actions bring to light the hiring practices of websites, whose editors can go forever without actually meeting the people they are paying to write. According to the articles, ESPN.com & Covers never interviewed Phillips before hiring her, and nobody at either company can claim to ever have met her. Apparently, this isn't an uncommon practice. I suppose you can still con people even if you put a face to your email.

And finally, the biggest NFL news today was supposed to be the doling of punishment for the Saints players in Bounty-Gate. However, it took a back seat to the apparent suicide of Junior Seau.  These two events connect so well that the timing of Seau's death is scary. The day started with the punishments. Four players were suspended - with the harshest penalty given to Jonathan Vilma (16 games). All players plan on appealing the ruling. If social media is any way to measure how the Player's Association is looking at the ruling, many NFL players are against this ruling.

Meanwhile, Seau was found dead in his house with a gunshot wound to the chest. Eerily similar to the suicide of former Bear Dave Duerson, who shot himself in the heart so that his brain could be studied for the effects of concussions on the brain. It's unreal to think that these guys do something like this while being cognitive enough to realize what they are doing. But who the hell knows what's going through their minds when they are doing this? The NFL is going to be facing severe litigation in the next 5-10 years as these concussions are studied and likely proven to cause post-football symptoms that lead to depression and often suicide.

The players who are against the rulings dished out by the commissioner are missing the point. As the head of the NFL, Goodell cannot continue to watch his product get dismantled. I've heard a little chatter in the past about the NFL going the way of boxing (a once major sport in America that has become obscure for the most part - at least in the overall sporting landscape). The extinction of the NFL could come in our lifetimes, especially if Goodell were to just close his eyes and pretend nothing was happening. I sure as hell don't want a future son of mine to play football, knowing everything I know about what happens to these folks after football.

 Punishment was hefty for the bounties. Good.

These punishments were necessary to ensure that bounties will never be a part of the NFL again. If you want to take that chance as a player, you'll be looking at an even stiffer penalty (possible ban I'd say). The NFL doesn't want this concussion issue to get out of control. Regardless on whether it's shown that Seau had post-concussion symptoms that led to this, the NFL has to make sure to protect its product - its players. Too bad the players don't see that. In 20 years, they may want to thank Goodell for trying to make their profession safer.


Update: 5/4/12...This week just keeps getting weirder and weirder with bizarre sporting stories, another for the worse. While shagging fly-balls in batting practice, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera suffered an ACL injury in what is likely his last year as a pitcher. Before the year, he said this would be it. I'm not sure he wants to go out like this, but then again, he may not have a choice. If you're a sports fan and weren't moved by his press conference as he sat there in disbelief over what happened, then you're not a real sports fan.

Rivera's career may be over due to a freak injury.

I expect two kinds of idiots to come out of the woodwork for this story: (1) those who say he shouldn't be shagging fly balls when he's apparently been doing it his entire career with no problems and (2) those idiots that take joy in Rivera's injury. If this is it for Rivera, what a terrible way to go. According to an ESPN stat I just saw, his 2.21 ERA in the live-ball era (since 1920) is the best ERA for pitchers with minimum 1000 innings pitched in their careers.

Rivera seems to be a respected person around major league baseball, with even a lot of Yankee haters appreciating his quiet, humble dominance. If this is the Sandman's Exit, it's been a hell of a ride for the last guy in major league history with the #42 jersey (retired by baseball for Jackie Robinson).

Enough of the bad news, or good news for people who like bad news. I'm done.

The Finals Countdown: NBA Playoff Preview (2K12 version)

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are right around the corner. I got half of the Finals right last year (Heat but no Thunder). Now, that particular match-up is the one that many would like to see (and one that many expect to see).

The Spurs expect to make a strong push as they get the #1 seed in the West for the 2nd year in a row. Somehow, they were written off by many (except for my friend Tom), probably because their age was looked at as a detriment in the compacted schedule due to the lockout.  Popovich (along with Thibodeau and Vogel) should be considered a front-runner for Coach of the Year with how he has been able to manage his version of the Big Three (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) along with the rest of his roster. I came across a stat on Twitter (didn't double check it, so take this for what it's worth) that the Spurs only lost 3 games total when their roster (I assume their normal starters) was at full strength.

The Thunder look like a good bet to make a run. Coming off of his third straight scoring title, Kevin Durant looks to have a complete squad around him (another scoring option in Westbrook, solid defenders in Harden and Ibaka, a veteran with a few rings in Derek Fisher). I'm looking at Spurs/Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder taking it.

The top spot in the East goes to the Bulls again. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose due to various injuries for what seemed like months, Tom Thibodeau was able to muster out a 50-16 record and the top overall seed in the NBA. However, no matter how much Bulls and their fans may be happy with the #1 seed in the East, they will (and should) be ultimately judged on whether they can make the next step in the 2012 Playoffs and advance to the NBA Finals. This will likely involve a matchup versus the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When the season started, we all wanted to just fast-forward into the end of May and get the Miami/Chicago series going already - pretty much dismissing the rest of the East. While I still think this will be the series, my convictions on the series are not as strong. I'm not sure if Miami has been on cruise control in the regular season and waiting for the playoffs to step everything up, but they've given me an uneasy feeling in terms of backing them to win it all. They had a two-week streak earlier this year of beating teams by 12+ points, so I know there's a championship caliber team there if they play up to their talent level.

Last year, the Heat took four straight after losing Game 1 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of the credit for that series win goes to LeBron's defense on Rose, one of the few guys who can match Rose's speed and has many inches on the reigning MVP. I'd say the Bulls look better as a team this year, but the playoffs are a different matter. I still think the Heat will take the East, especially with Rose's health lingering as a constant question throughout the year. If Rose can maintain a semblence of health, I'd give the Bulls a good shot of winning it. BUT, and it's a big BUT, someone else will need to step up as a scorer in the series in the event LBJ contains Rose just as well as last year. With Rose's health in question, I have to give the Heat the edge.

You may argue that the Bulls played well (even against the Heat) without Rose this year, but they will need Rose at his best in a 7-game series (no matter how deep their bench) against the Heat.

So for the second year in a row, I'm going Heat/Thunder in the finals, with the Heat winning it. It's not much of a reach, but it's just what I see happening. If you care to provide your own opinions, I'm all ears.

Eastern Conference Playoffs
R1: Bulls over Sixers (sweeeeeep); Celtics over Atlanta in 6 (I can't trust Atlanta. Ever.) Miami over NY in 5; Pacers over Magic in 6
R2: Bulls over Celtics in 7 (trying to duplicate their series from 2010, with the reverse result); Miami over Indiana in 6
ECF: Miami over Chicago in 6

Western Conference Playoffs
R1: Spurs over Jazz in 5; Memphis over LAC in 6; Denver over LAL in 6 (they will miss World Peace); Thunder over Mavericks in 6
R2: Spurs over Memphis in 7; Thunder over Denver in 5
WCF: Thunder over Spurs in 6

Finals
Heat over Thunder in 6.

Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel, Pacers
League MVP: LBJ, Miami
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cle
6th Man: James Harden, OKC
Improved Player: Ryan Anderson, Magic
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC

Bow(e)ls (College/Pro), Bulls & Look into NFL Week 17

There are 35 bowl games in college football - meaning 70 teams get a postseason game. I don't need to tell you this is excessive, but I will anyways. Out of these 70 teams, 13 of them don't even have a winning record (12 are 6-6, UCLA is the first 6-7 team to make a bowl based on their appeal to the NCAA). Why should a team be rewarded for being average? If you count the 7-5 teams invited to bowls, that's an additional 15 teams. That means 28 of the 70 teams playing in bowls (40%) are break-even or barely above it.

If you remove these teams and have 8 wins minimum be a requirement, that'd leave us with 42 teams (21 games), which would probably be a more reasonable format.

NCAA can say all they want that these players and teams should be rewarded for a great season. It's clear it's not really about the teams and players being rewarded, but strictly about money. As long as there's 35 willing sponsors to back these bowls, they will keep this system in place.

Enjoy the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl tomorrow, featuring 6-6 Illinois vs 6-7 UCLA! I'm going to fight not stabbing myself watching teams with a combined 12-13 record - and neither featuring the coach that started the year.

Happy Bow(e)l Movement everyone!

The Pro Bowl teams were announced, and like always, there's deserving people that didn't get voted in. I laugh at everyone that gets worked up for a game they don't watch. Should Eli be in over Romo, Stafford or Newton? Probably not. Everyone knows though that all the top players end up bailing from the game anyways - some of them because of their teams making the Super Bowl. At the end of the day, I don't care who makes the Pro Bowl. Sure, I like knowing that the Niners have a lot of guys recognized as the best at their positions in the NFC, but it's not going to make me want to watch it.

As much as I want to root hardcore for the Bulls, going out to bars and hearing all of the idiots that watch them, blaming every loss/foul on the refs, it gets annoying to the point where I can't watch them in public anymore. It's not to that point yet this year, but I'm reminded of it last year during the playoff run. Every loss - referee's fault. Every foul - ref's fault. I know that this is how it goes for fans of every team. But since I'm in the Chicago market, I feel the need to mention them. There's probably people who this doesn't apply to and can watch basketball objectively - so to those people, feel free to ignore this rant (a little late to say, I know).

Perhaps some of it has to do with the announcers as well. Every Bulls fan loves Stacey King, but you'll hardly ever hear him not complain about a call against the Bulls. And when a questionable call goes in their favor, he'll say it was a good call and that the Bulls deserve it.

I understand that most analysts are homers, but his homerism is too excessive for my taste. He has good phrases that sell t-shirts, but like most announcers out there (local and national), I couldn't care less about him. This goes doubly for Hawk Harrelson.

Hmmmm, Reinsdorf connection - coincidence?

Week 17 means the end of the regular season for the NFL...but in reality, the season is juuuuuust beginning. There's still 3 spots to be decided - with Denver (AFC West), Cincy (AFC Wild Card) & the winner of Dallas/NYG (NFC East) who control their fates. Other teams need a combination of a win and other team(s) to lose in order to make it.

I have Denver losing this week and Oakland winning - giving the AFC West to Oakland. Cincy plays Baltimore at home - I say Cincy gets up for that game and pulls out the W. The other spot - I see NYG winning this one by a couple scores - I think Romo's injury will play a factor. Even if it isn't a factor and they lose, Tony Romo will be blamed for it.

An aside - Romo and Lebron could cure cancer and people would critique the technique in which they found the cure. The only reason I'd ever like to see Romo win a Super Bowl is to hear the excuses all his haters would come up with - "it was a team effort, it had nothing to do with him". If they lose a game by 3 and the dude throws for 400 yards and 3 TDs, no interceptions, somehow it'll have to do with Romo choking.

God, I hate ignorant sports fans. Look at what ESPN has created. Heap praise and God-like status on a mediocre QB who can't complete half his passes and is asked to manage a game (Tebow) and detest a guy who is often asked to throw 40-50 times a game (with a 60+% completion rate), 3/1 TD/Interception ratio.

Week 17 Picks - I'll update my record in the next blog - it's not as good as last year.

KC +3.5 (Denver never wins big - only 1 Tebow win was by more than 3), NYG -3 (see above), Chi +1 (Bears will give good effort - Minn is hurting all over), Car +7.5 (If Niners are winning in StL as expected, I see Payton to pull all the starters by the second half - watch Cam shine!)


In case I don't write tomorrow, Happy New Year to all! Hope 2012 treats all of you well.

One in the Hand is Worth Two Busch Lights

Only took 70 years, but Americans are finally embracing an element of Germany again.

Disregard every I said in the past month about LeBron and the Heat. Everything they did right against the Bulls, they did wrong against the Mavericks. They couldn't close out games. They blew a big lead in what turned out to be the difference making game (to me anyways) in Game 2.

Everyone and their mother (except me and my mother) were rooting for the Mavericks in this series.

Correction. They were rooting against the Heat. Never have I seen such hatred for a team in my memory. The 2007 Patriots were close, but this Heat team takes the cake. Not to say I blame people, because all the elements of hatred were there.

(1) The declaration of a championship in July. Actually, make that 8 championships. Not too many people are going to like you when you do that.

(2) The Decision. Even though all the money he got for that went to charity, this was what made people hate LeBron and the Heat the most. Jim Gray goes from respected journalist willing to ask tough questions to a complete tool. Lebron made people think this The Decision was a difficult one when he knew all along he was going to join his boy Wade as early as 2008.

(3) Heat over Bulls in EC Finals. This was merely the icing on the cake. People from Chicago didn't need any extra reason to root against the Heatles in the Finals. But Chicago's exit made Miami a popular hate item on the menu. See: just about every bet I made with people on the Dallas/Miami series.

An aside here, but I don't think the Heat are going to relinquish their Eastern crown any time soon.

(4) Dirk - What do fringe basketball fans like rooting for more than anything? A white guy who can shoot hoops! Ok, this wasn't really a reason. I just needed to throw in a "White Guy is Good at Basketball" reference.

There's probably more reasons, but I don't care to go into them. I just lost $190 ($135 from series bets and $55 on Miami -5) and 6 pitchers of beer. And not only that, I'm drinking a 9 month old Busch Light at the moment. The point of the story is: people here (and everywhere aside from Dallas) were watching to root against the Heat, not necessarily rooting for the Mavericks. If Dallas beats Orlando, no one here gives a rat's ass.

Turn out the Busch lights, the party's over. As the 26 real Miami Heat fans sulk in defeat, the rest of Miami (and the world) parties.

Fame of the Game

Much like politics with "Follow the Money", all one needs to do is to "Follow the Hall of Famers" to see what teams have a chance to win the championship.

Besides being in an NBA Finals matchup for the 2nd time in the past 6 years, what else do the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have in common? They both have at least 2 future Hall of Famers.

According to data presented by basketball-reference.com, Dwyane Wade and Lebron James (both at 99% odds) as well as Dirk Nowitzki (95%) and Jason Kidd (90%) are likely Hall of Famers based on a probability formula of who will likely be in the Hall of Fame (not who deserves to be in it). Based on this, Chris Bosh has a 53% chance of making the Hall (likely to increase if the Heat become the dynasty they expect to become).

Why mention the obvious Hall-of-Fame angle, you ask? Well, I dug up the champions that have hoisted the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy since I was born (I'm 28, do the math). And I found out some things I already knew and some that I did not.

(1) Based on current players already in the hall and the basketball-reference article, 26 of 28 teams who have won the title have had 2 Hall-of-Fame worthy players on their team, with 11 of 28 teams having at least 3 Hall of Famers. The 1993-94 Rockets (Hakeem) and 2003-04 Pistons (no hall of famers) were the exception to the rule.

(2) Based on the list I am posting below, one could argue that the only team that was led by a point guard to a title in this span was Detroit in 1989 and 1990 (by Isiah Thomas). Otherwise, most of the teams had an inside presence (center or power forward) and/or a shooting guard that were arguably the best players on their teams.

Year	Champion	Hall of Famer 1	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 2	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 3	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 4	Position	Hall of Famer 5	Position
1983	76ers	Moses Malone	Center	Julius Erving	Small Forward
1984	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard
1985	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Guard	James Worthy	Forward	Bob McAdoo	Forward
1986	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard	Bill Walton	Forward/Center
1987	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1988	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1989	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Adrian Dantley	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1990	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard
1991	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1992	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1993	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1994	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center
1995	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center	Clyde Drexler	Shooting Guard
1996	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1997	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center
1998	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1999	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	David Robinson	Center
2000	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2001	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2002	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2003	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2004	Pistons	None**
2005	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2006	Heat	Dwyane Wade	Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2007	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2008	Celtics	Kevin Garnett	Forward	Ray Allen	Guard	Paul Pierce	Guard
2009	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
2010	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
Chances	*As of 5/30/2011	Gasol has 60% of HOF,	according to basketball-reference.com
		Parker has 57% of HOF
	** Chauncey Billups -	best chances of making it - 21%

This somewhat references my last article that states that Derrick Rose needs another high caliber player next to him that can be a difference maker. The previous article never touched base on the fact that it'd likely need to be another likely perennial All-Star/potential Hall of Famer like Rose that would have to be the compliment. Outside of a trade for Howard, I don't see a potential Hall of Famer going to the Bulls this offseason (player lockout be damned).

Using this formula as a gambler, it'd be wise to look at each team and see which teams have 2 or more future Hall-of-Famers and make future bets based on this. Any teams with 1 or less Hall-worthy players should not be considered reasonable bets. Bet on the long-shots at your own risk (especially in the NBA, where only 9 different franchises have won titles in the past 30 years).

As far as the NBA Finals for 2011 is concerned, I expect this to be a highly competitive series in Heat/Mavs II. Only 4 players (Dirk, Wade, Haslem and Jason Terry) remain from the 2006 series, which doesn't seem like a lot for a rematch. That shouldn't make the series any less entertaining.

Dirk enters this Finals on a roll that no one has ever seen from him before. He and LeBron have clearly been the best players in the postseason, which explains why their respective teams advanced to the final series of the season.

Unfortunately for Bulls fans who are bitter about the series loss to the Heat and to NBA fans who just flat out hate the Heat (you can't spell H-E-A-T without HATE, after all), I believe that the Heat are taking this series. Both teams are capable of winning games on the road (each team shared NBA best road records of 28-13), and I think each team will win at least a road game in the series. I flipped between Heat in 6 and in 7, but I'll go with my original choice and say Heat in 6.

Whatever the result, you can add 2011 to the Facts of NBA Life - another team with 2+ HOFers will win the title to make it 27 of 29.

Paging Gar Forman - your move.