8/22/2011

Breaking Good: Recent Records That Will Be Hard to Beat

As a frequent watcher of sporting events, one of the main topics that comes up on a continual basis is records/milestones that will never be broken or achieved. Each time, the same records are trotted out as unbreakable and are usually reflective of different eras of the sport of which they speak. Records like Cy Young's career win total or Wilt Chamberlain's numerous records (notably points in a game and points per game in a season) are just some of these records that will never be sniffed upon anytime soon, yet alone broken.

I decided I would compile some milestones or benchmarks in particular sports (whether it be a season or career) that have been set in the past 10-20 years that we will never see in the next 10-20 years (or perhaps ever), based on how each particular game is evolving. For example's sake, I'm going to focus on the sports that I know: NFL, MLB and NBA.

NFL records that will not be broken any time soon (in a 16 game regular season format):

Tomlinson's 31 TDs in 2006: Even though this record was broken several times in a 3-4 year span before this, I believe this record will stand the test of time. The way teams are going towards running backs by committee, there is no need for a guy to carry the ball as much as LT did that year.

No one (not even Jenn Sterger) will touch Brett Favre's small....err, large records
Favre's 299 games in a row as starting QB: I assume this number includes playoffs - I saw it as this on the nfl.com page. With the concussion rule the way it is now (where they will make sure players cannot play if signs of a concussion are apparent), I don't see a QB (or any position for that matter) making it through 18+ seasons worth of games without missing a game. Peyton is the closest, but he still has over 5 years to go and may even miss Week 1 of this year. Of Favre's numerous accolades, this one should stand the test of time for the longest. (Note: NFL.com has the record wrong - my partner in crime Tim found the number to be 297 regular season games).

Jerry Rice's 1549 catches in a career: With all of his down years at the end weighing down his career average, he still averaged 75 catches a year in his career. Even if he didn't play an unbelievable 20 years in the league and ended it about 5 years earlier, many of his records would still be untouchable. A 22 year old receiver entering the league would need to average just under 100 catches a season for 16 seasons to get this record. It's just not gonna happen. Rice has so many unbreakable records to speak of, but this is the one I wanted to highlight.

Marvin Harrison - 143 catches in 2002: Never mind that this record is 20 higher than its second place finisher, the best offenses these days feature QBs who spread the ball all over the field, not to just one primary guy. Green Bay, New Orleans, Indianapolis and New England seem to have different receivers leading the team in catches/yards from game to game. There really isn't anyone currently capable of grabbing an average of 9 catches per game that it would take to beat this record.


MLB records/milestones that are unreachable in today's era

Cal Ripken's games streak: This one is fairly obviously, but no current player (nor will any future player) have the desire to play 16-17 years worth of games in a row. The best players need a handful of games off in a year now. With salaries the way they are, managers have no incentive to play a superstar through an injury that may require a few days of rest. Ripken's record is safe.

Just like the jersey he sports here, Randy Johnson's 300K seasons are a thing of the past.

300Ks in a season for a pitcher: The last pitchers to achieve 300+Ks were Schilling and Randy Johnson for the 2002 D-Backs. Johnson topped the duo with 334, which was only the fourth highest total of his career. For a starter to get that many in a 5-man rotation (33-35 starts considering some rotations skip the 5th starters on days of), a pitcher needs to average 10Ks per game. These days, 10Ks is considered a great game - so to expect someone to average that (or even 9Ks per game) in the Pitch Count era is far-fetched.

60 Home Runs in a season: Unless another cheater era begins, I see Jose Bautista's number from last year (54) to be about the ceiling for home run hitters. Since the baseball drug testing began, home run numbers have gone down. There are some pitcher friendly parks being built these days (Petco comes to mind), but much of it has to do with normal-strength hitters hitting against normal-strength pitchers.

Ichiro's 262 hits in a season (2004): Considering that Ichiro is the only current player with a season in the top 80 of hits in a season (he has 4 of the top 80 hit seasons of all time), there doesn't appear to be anyone on the horizon that could sniff this record. Juan Pierre (2004) and Michael Young (2005) are the closest active players to this record when they got 221 hits in their respective seasons.

NBA Records/Milestones that are out of reach

Jordan's 30 points per game for a career:  If you start your career with a couple of "sub-par" (when compared to Jordan's average) 22/game seasons, you have some major work to do. Jordan's average would have been higher had it not been for his years with the Wizards, which just goes to show you how dominant he was.

No one will get to 80+ points again any time soon. B-Bo knows this.

80 points in a game: Kobe achieved this back in 2006 (81 points to be exact), making him the first player since Wilt's 100 points to break the 80 point barrier. Not only do you have to be a tremendous ball hog to get this record, but you have to be a ball hog that can actually shoot well. Also, you have to be in a tight game where you won't be sat in the last 5-6 minutes of a game. Bryant's Lakers were trailing by double digits for the middle part of the game against the Raptors before pulling away in the 4th quarter. Someone like Carmelo has the best chance of getting this achievement.

Bulls' 72 wins in 1995-96: Ok, so none of these records have been team records thus far. I figured I'd throw in the one record that has been set recently that will not be beat in our lifetimes. For teams to actually get this record, they actually have to want to get this record. This means playing your starters (who have to be the elite of the elite) throughout the season without much rest. Once teams clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs, there's very little incentive for the top players to continue to play 35-40 mins/game unless there's particular bonuses attached to their contract relating to individual marks. And by the time home court is clinched throughout a year, teams are well past the 10 loss mark. I don't see this one being touched.


I'm sure there's other records I'm neglecting, but these ones come to mind as recent records/milestones that seem untouchable based on how their respective sports are evolving. If there's any recent records or milestones that are untouchable, please share your thoughts.