Showing posts with label super bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label super bowl. Show all posts

8/27/2013

NFL vs College Football: Which Brand of Football Do You Prefer?

In about 48 hours, the college football season kicks off with North Carolina and South Carolina butting heads on ESPN. A week and an hour later, the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens head to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos to start up the NFL slate of games that count.

Many of us watch both brands of football; some of us intently watch an equal amount of Saturday and Sunday football, while others have a true football love. The stories below reflect those who have true ties to one or the other.

The College Guys


Kalind

In discussing his love of college football, Kalind (you can find him on Twitter - @kalind_totals) reflects on a childhood rich with memories of Saturdays past spent watching college football with his dad.

"I have been watching college football for as long as my eyes could focus on a TV if you let my mother tell the story," Kalind said. "She says my father held me on Saturday afternoons while he watched."

His first college football memories come from watching the Florida Gators (his hometown rooting interest at the time) taking on Georgia in 1980. Watching the Gators lose on a late touchdown from Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott broke young Kalind's heart, but set in motion a lifelong love of the sport.

"The collegiate atmosphere is what stands out to me," he said. "The Swamp, Autzen Stadium, The Big House, The 12th Man, Death Valley. Gets no better."

He cites the evolution of offenses (from the wishbone to the current trend of the spread) and coach's constant pursuit of finding mismatches as other drawing points to his fascination with the college game over the pro version.

Due to his investing into the games, Kalind no longer has a particular rooting interest in any team but does consider the SEC his favorite conference to watch.

"I enjoy watching the SEC for the tradition in rivalries and the diverse approach to the game itself," he said. "Their ability to be a defensive minded conference yet have skilled enough offensive players to destroy opponents is what draws me to the conference. They have a complete balance of TEAM concept where neither side if the ball is solely responsible for winning games.

"The talent level is directly linked to the passion the South has for the sport from youth league up through college and the parents are just as dedicated and passionate as their sons who play the game."

Kalind's Saturdays are spent in his lab, notepad in hand with games he is investing in or planning on investing in, with remote control close by so he can enjoy the DirecTV package that he purchases every college football season to its fullest potential.

"The outside world doesn't matter much on Saturdays," he said. "I may come up from my lab for the occasional breather but for the most part this is a job I take seriously."

As far as surprise teams go for this season, he considers Boise State and Northwestern as teams who have a great shot at making some noise this season. However, he doesn't think Northwestern's schedule lends itself well to consistent defensive efforts, as Kalind believes they will be facing strong rushing attacks from the fifth week of the season onward.

And the championship game?

"BCS title game will be Oregon vs Georgia." he said. "The shoot out we have been waiting for has found itself in the Rose Bowl on Jan 6th with Oregon taking the last drive of the game to win and stop the dominance of the SEC to the tune of 41-40. This will be an explosion of two of the very best offensive teams college football has to offer and it will usher in what many college football fans have wanted for quite some time, a playoff system."

Nick

Nick doesn't subscribe to the DirecTV package like Kalind does, but he does take in a lot of games each Saturday (he sets up three televisions in his living room to watch as much live action as possible). The amount of games is definitely one of the draws for him when it comes to his love of college football.

"The volume of games is just so much higher," he said. "Without buying Sunday Ticket, the most NFL games a person could see at home in a given week is 5-6, but there are times where on a given Saturday there are that many games on TV at the same time. More games increases the chance that one of them will be awesome.

"College football moves faster, and it's more exciting. Because the skill level isn't as high, things can change so quickly and the volume of exciting/big plays is much higher."

Like Kalind, Nick appreciates the atmosphere that surrounds college football and its fans.

"The students represent a different kind of fan than what the NFL has," he said. "It's much cooler to see the student section going crazy than some 45 year old guy with his face painted. There's also the mascots, the cheerleaders and the bands. The fact that players can only be there for four years means that there is a freshness to things that you can't get in the NFL."

His earliest memories of college football stem from a few Big Ten teams making Rose Bowl runs (Wisconsin & Northwestern), but his true love of the sport (and of the University of Michigan football) started when he attended college in the early 2000s, even though his school didn't have a college team.

Nick's Saturdays in the Fall are full of TVs and games, dedicating himself to this setup from the moment games kick off at 11am CST till the late games end about a half day later.

When asked about who will surprise this season, Nick provided a conference who he thinks will sneak up on people.

"It's really hard in any sport, in the Internet age, to call things a surprise because everyone gets so much coverage and everyone has a "surprise" team," he said. "I think the Pac 12 is better than everyone gives it credit (even outside of Stanford and Oregon), so I think the "surprise" could be them being much better and deeper than anyone is looking at. UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Arizona St. all got votes but are outside of the top 25. Lots of talent on those teams."

In fact, he has a PAC-12 team in his championship game. Nick's title game features Alabama winning its third straight title over Stanford.

"If this was year one of the new playoff system, I would throw Georgia and Clemson in as well," Nick said. "Clemson has a history of shooting themselves in the foot which is why I won't pick them to make it outright, but they have a ton of talent."

The Pro Peeps


Brad


The youngest of the interviewees for this series, Brad's first memories of watching the NFL aren't much different than many of us born/raised in the 1980s.

"My earliest memory of watching the NFL is when I was a child, maybe 4 or 5," he said. "My dad showing me Bears games he recorded on VHS! Seeing Walter Payton's incredible runs."

Runs like that help define what Brad loves most about the NFL.

"The skill level of the NFL players and coaching is leaps and bounds better," he said.

In his lifetime, the game has changed and put more of a focus on player safety. For that reason, Brad's favorite part of the NFL has changed along with the times.

"It used to be the blind-sided hits and crack back blocks," he said. "Now, it's wide receiver routes. A beautifully run route to separate from a defensive back is beautiful."

The Sunday routine for Brad consists of a wake-up call around 10, pigs in a blanket about an hour later, which leads him right into game-time. Assuming they start at noon, the Chicago Bears dominate his airwaves, then it's the RedZone channel till Sunday Night Football comes on.

In the first potential cold-weather Super Bowl, Brad has a match-up of Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos facing Atlanta, with Peyton and company prevailing to win the Lombardi Trophy.

As far as surprise teams go, Brad went the opposite route of the others here and gave his surprise team to flop on its face this year.

"My surprise team this year is the Patriots. They will be bad...really bad," he said. "Tom Brady, for the first time in his career, has bum options to throw to."

Tim

Going to a Division I school isn't necessary for people to become fans of college football. In the case of Tim, it's one of the many reasons why he just can't get into college as much as the NFL.

"I never been able to make the attachment as a fan to any college team as it doesn’t seem natural and I can’t generate the same passion as the ones that did go to a Division I school," he said. "(Also), I think there are just way too many college teams and the product seems to get watered down."

His earliest memories stem from a team that he now despises - the 1985 Chicago Bears. Since then, he became a huge Dallas Cowboys fan (dating back to their dominance in the early 1990s). The national exposure and exciting players (citing the Irvin/Aikman/Smith triplets) sold him on the team that he continues to love.

So we already heard what he dislikes about college football. What exactly does Tim like about the NFL that makes it so special?

"The competition and parity are my favorite parts of the NFL," he said. "It seems like any team can win on any Sunday. And once playoffs start, throw out the records and watch a wild card team go on a run and take the whole thing."

Like Nick, Tim has a three television set-up that goes from noon till close. The DirecTV package comes in handy for this, allowing for Tim and his company to watch the games of their favorite squads. Getting the smoker or grill started beforehand is also a crucial aspect of Sundays for Tim, who treats his company to a variety of delicious cooked meats throughout the football season.

One surprise he believes is on the horizon for the 2013 season - a bounce back season from Kansas City.

"I like the Chiefs to be a lot better this year with a competent coach now (unless it comes to managing time or his timeouts) and a quarterback that is efficient and  does not turn the ball over," he said. "He is surrounded with some dynamic weapons and a coach that does a good job of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Their defense will be the biggest question mark/downfall."

The obligatory prediction business - Tim has Matt Ryan as a legitimate MVP candidate, with Ryan leading the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl victory over the Houston Texans to cap off the 2013-14 season.

And his final predictions?

"I like a couple of sophomore slumps to rear its ugly head with Wilson, RGIII and Luck," Tim said. "With more tape out on these guys now, I see defensive coordinators adjusting and slowing them down some. I think Luck’s style makes him the most likely to avoid the slump."

7/09/2013

The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs

From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.

Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.

But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.

So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:

  • Those who have already won a Super Bowl
  • Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
  • Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
  • Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title
If we break it down like this, here's how it would look, using the active list of quarterbacks. Note that in cases where the QB may not be known, I am either taking an educated guess as to who the starter will be or counting the QBs in the battle as one QB:

(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs
  • Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco

    Notes:
    Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).

    It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.
(2) Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win (no particular order) - 6 QBs
  • Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck

    Notes:
    You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.

    The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.
(3) Those who have less talent but could win it with the right cast of characters (no particular order) - 8 QBs
  •  Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill

    Notes:
    The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.

    Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.

    Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.

    Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.

    Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.

    Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.

    Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).

    Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.

    Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

 (4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs
  • Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker

    Notes:
    Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.

    Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.

So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.


2/10/2013

Big Boys Don't Cry; They Drink: A Reflection of a Sad Niner Fan's Super Bowl Experience

It took me a week to finally reflect on the Super Bowl. Here goes nothing.

That normal sadness that follows a Super Bowl usually has to do with the season being over. The normal depression after the game usually has to do with me incorrectly assessing the wagers I made on the game (New England, I'm looking at you in your last two appearances).

This year, I had no such thoughts. No lamenting that the last game of the season had just been played. And no sadness about wagers lost. I only had one wager that was directly tied to the game with a friend, but I didn't care if my San Francisco -3.5 bet lost. Winning by 1-3 points would have been ok with me too.

Instead, the Niners left me with a hole in my heart that I tried to preemptively fill with close to a dozen craft beers. I missed the halftime show as I stood outside in the cold drinking a Gumball Head. My appearance in the frigid air would have a repeat performance, right after Jacoby Jones opened the second half with a kickoff return for a touchdown. I went outside again, trying to keep myself composed as my favorite team was in the process of getting demolished.

Then, the infamous power outage, which served to drag on the pain and provide false hope at the same time. When the outage was fixed, the Niners stormed back but couldn't finish the deal. Yes, there was a hold on the Niners' last offensive play, but that wasn't what caused the game to be lost.

After all, a 28-6 deficit entering your first offensive play of the second half isn't exactly something you can pin on a missed holding call. Chris Culliver became a trending name earlier in the Super Bowl week for his comments denouncing the idea of having and playing with a gay teammate. On Super Bowl Sunday, Culliver trended for a different reason - #HorribleCoverage. He was burned on Flacco's TD to Boldin to open the game and on his last TD to Jacoby Jones. Not to mention a costly pass interference that extended a Baltimore drive right after the Niners closed the big gap down to 31-29.

There's many other reasons to blame for the loss: the declining play of the defense (which has quietly been a problem since Kaepernick has taken over), Harbaugh not calling a single running play inside the 10 on that last drive, and so forth.

All the while, when the Niners were coming back, I was acting like a drunken fool and taunting everyone in the basement with random actions that I can't quite even comprehend why I was doing them. It was all the more reason to justify my month of sobriety which started with the Monday after the Super Bowl and continues till at least the beginning of March.

Once I woke up with a little hangover on Black Monday, I was mostly over the loss. The thoughts of a meaningful NFL game not appearing for another seven months were soon the main thoughts.

And they remain my thoughts for now. College basketball is starting to get back onto my sports radar, particularly with March Madness a month away.

Stay tuned for a blog in the near future, where I will simulate the 2013 NFL Draft, but with a little twist.


2/02/2013

Prop-aring for the Super Bowl & The Madness of Super Bowl Betting

Here are a few questions to ponder:

  1. How long will Alicia Keys take to finish the national anthem?
  2. Will she add or forget any words when she is singing it?
  3. Will Jay-Z appear on stage with Beyonce at some point during her halftime performance?
  4. Will Beyonce's hair be curled, waved or crimped?
And while you're pondering them, you can also gamble on them. Yes - online sportsbooks offer gamblers a chance to win (or likely lose) a ton of money on the craziest stuff you can think of.

Now of course, there's close to a thousand props for people who use 5dimes.com to bet on (921 to be exact), ranging from the non-football bets above to bets such as a team's exact margin of victory and a lot in between.

Some of the larger odds:

  • If you think there will be a score within the first 30 seconds of the game, you can throw a few dollars on that at 50/1 odds.
  • If you think both QB's first passes will be interceptions, you can bet that at 400/1 odds (i.e. $10 nets you $4,000)
  • If you think the score will be tied at the half and at the end of the fourth quarter, you get those odds at 55/1.
  • If you believe the first score (like in last year's Super Bowl) will be a safety, you're getting 100/1 odds.
  • Betting on San Fran to win by exactly 41 points, you get 550/1 odds. Betting Baltimore to win by that same margin is a 2000/1 proposition. (Most exact margins of victory pay the most, but these are the highest).

Now, some of the ones I am considering:

  1. Total missed FGs: Over 1 +275: Including the postseason, Justin Tucker missed only 3 of 35 field goals in his rookie year. However, the veteran on the other sideline has been awful. David Akers has missed 14 of 44 field goal attempts, including a miss in 10 of 18 games. He had 4 multi-miss FG games. I think this offers value, as you can get at least a push if there's only one miss.
  2. LaMichael James: Over 5.5 carries/25.5 rushing yards: I've lumped these two together. I believe that the Niners' best chance to win will be on the ground. James is fresh, and with little game tape of the Oregon speedster, I believe Harbaugh (the Jim version) will have him featured more. With the Ravens having allowed 125+ rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, I believe there will be plenty of opportunities for Gore and James to get theirs.
  3. Score in first 4 minutes (+270): San Fran has had a tendency in both postseason games to start slow, with an early pick-6 by Green Bay and a quick first drive by Atlanta in the NFC title game to open up the scoring. Don't be surprised (if Balt gets ball first) for Flacco to go deep to Torrey Smith to start the game.
  4. Michael Crabtree MVP (+1800): I made the case for Crabtree in a previous blog. If San Fran wins thanks to Kaepernick, there's a decent chance he's been targeting Crabtree. As long as Crabtree grabs the majority of Kaep's yards & TDs, I think he has good value at 18/1, as long as Kaepernick doesn't run for 50+ yards as well.

101 Bets

In case you missed last year's feature, I interviewed a couple of friends on their annual tradition of betting on 101 separate props. This year was no exception to their betting adventures. The Man of Little Stature won the coin toss and made his first pick "The Football Travels Over 1499.5 yards", which has become his new favorite bet over "the pylon gets knocked down".

Here's a list of their bets for this year. This...is how professionals do it:

  LM TS
1. Heads/tails: Tails  
2. Calling team picks:   Tails
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss: Loses  
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers:   Chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1499.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards + successful FG yards): Over  
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:   Run
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run: Pass  
8. First score, TD/FG:   FG
9. First team to score:   SF
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception: Int  
11. Which team commits the first turnover:   Balt
12. Which team commits more turnovers: Balt  
13. First team to take a timeout:   SF
14. First team to challenge play:   SF
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5:   Under
16. First quarter points, over/under 9.5: Over  
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 14:   Under
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 10: Over  
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5:   Over
20. Total points for game, over/under 47.5:   Under
21. All timeouts used in the first half: No  
22. All timeouts used in second half:   No
23. First penalty committed by which team: Balt  
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards:   Under
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC:   Balt
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC: Balt  
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
28. Most team passing yards:   Balt
29. Most team rushing yards:   SF
30. Most team passing TDs:   Balt
31. Most team rushing TDs:   SF
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards: SF  
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC: SF  
34. More FG/TD in game: TD  
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game: Yes  
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half: No  
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:   Yes
38. Will there be a safety in the game:   No
39. Will there be an OT: No  
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion:   No
     
41. Last team to score: SF  
42. Last team to score win/lose:   Win
43. Anyone ejected from game:   No
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s: Under  
45. First/second half, most points scored:   2H
46. Which team will record more sacks:   SF
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores: No  
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC:   SF
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards: Over  
50. Which team will score the longest TD: SF  
51. Will there be a defensive TD:   No
52. Will there be a special teams TD:   No
53. Which team will kick the longest FG:   Balt
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick: No  
55.Will game be tied after 0-0:   Yes
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock): Over  
57. Winner of Super Bowl: SF  
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5:   Over
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC:   Balt
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first:   TD
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first:   TD
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble: No  
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble:   No
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers): SF  
65. Which team will intercept more balls: SF  
66. NFC QB first pass complete? Yes  
67. AFC QB first pass complete? Yes  
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC: SF  
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands:   Stands
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC: SF  
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC:   SF
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC: SF  
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC:   Balt
75. Which team punts from deepest spot: Balt  
76. Which team kicks for more points:   Balt
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC:   Balt
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5: Under  
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards: Balt  
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5: Under  
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards:   Over
     
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards:   No
83. Will there be a missed FG:   No
84. Last score, FG/TD: TD  
85. Will there be a red zone turnover: No  
86. Who places more punts inside the 20: SF  
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game: Yes  
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty: No  
89. Will there be a blocked FG: No  
90. Will there be a blocked punt:   No
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass:   No
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker: No  
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC:   Balt
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC: SF  
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards:   Under
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards: Under  
97. Is a double digit lead ever established:   No
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead: SF  
99. Who has more time of possession:   SF
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QBs:   SF
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QBs: Kickers  



2/01/2013

The History of the Super Bowl MVP: Facts & Thoughts for This Year

A couple days away from Super Bowl XLVII (47 for us non-Romans). Anyone who knows me knows that I am super-psyched about this game being a 49ers fan.

And like almost every Super Bowl in the past 6-7 years, I'm a gambling man. There's so many freaking things you can bet on (more on this in a blog coming up later this week before the game). One of the things you can bet on is who will win the Super Bowl MVP.

This award favors the quarterback, as 25 of 47 winners (there was one Super Bowl w/ a co-MVP) lined up behind center to win the award. The past three Super Bowl winners had a QB win the award.

So naturally, the two favorites to win the award are both QBs (Colin Kaepernick is +140 and Joe Flacco is +250). This means for every 10 dollars you bet on Kaepernick, you'd profit $14, with a similar sized wager on Flacco netting you 25 bucks.

These are the safest bets to make, but who wants to be safe, especially when it comes to gambling? I delved into the history of the Super Bowl MVP and what the average QB who won the award did to win it. I also wanted to see what it took for a non-QB to win the award. The defensive winners (8 in total) were hard to find definitive stats for, so I wanted to focus more on the running backs and wide receivers who stole the honors from the quarterbacks.

So here goes nothing:


For the QB MVP winners:


  • The average stats for the 25 winning MVP QBs: 20-for-30, 269 yards, 2.3 TDs, 0.5 int.
  • Out of the first 9 QBs to win the MVP, none of them completed more than 17 passes or threw more than 30 times. In this time period, the average QB went 14-for-23, 218 yards, 1.7 TD, 0.6 int
  • Since then (since the 1985 Super Bowl - XIX), the 16 QBs have averaged 23-for-35, 298 yards, 2.7 TDs, 0.4 int
  • Yardage totals for MVP winners range from Roger Staubach's 119 in Super Bowl VI to Kurt Warner's 414 in Super Bowl XXXIV. The lowest total since Staubach's was Tom Brady's first go-around as MVP, only netting 145 passing yards in the Patriots' upset of the St. Louis Rams.

For the QB non-MVP winners:


  • The average stats for the 22 non-winning MVP QBs: 14-for-24, 184 yards, 1 TD, 0.6 int.
  • From Super Bowl I-XIX in which the QB didn't win MVP, the average stats for these QBs: 12-for-19, 141 yards, 1.1 TDs, 0.7 int
  • Since Super Bowl XX, the non-winning QBs averaged 17-28, 216 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 int
  • In the back-to-back Super Bowls that Miami won in the 1970s, Bob Greise went 14-for-18 with 161 yards and a TD and an interception...in both games combined! Could you imagine a QB throwing this little nowadays and winning a Super Bowl in just one game, yet alone two? 

So what does it take for a non-QB to win the MVP? We'll focus on the offensive players:

Running Backs (7 winners)

  • The seven running back winners have averaged 29 carries, 150 yards and 2 TDs. This stat means that basically the workhorse running back is the only type who can win the award.
  • The lowest number of carries for a MVP RB is 20 carries (Marcus Allen), with John Riggins' 38 carries leading the way for MVP running backs.
  • There has not been a running back MVP since 1998, when Terrell Davis totaled 157 yards in Super Bowl XXXII.

Wide Receivers (6 winners)

  • The average MVP wide-out has averaged about 7 catches for 140 yards and a touchdown to snag the award. Overall, the six winners were responsible for 799 of their QB's 1361 yards (59%) and 3 of their 8 TDs (Note: Hines Ward did not catch his 43-yard TD from Big Ben - see below)
  • It should be noted that three of these six winners have come in the last 8 years (Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes)
  • These three recent winners averaged 113 yards/game (not counting Ward's catch from the WR), while their QBs averaged 205 yards.
  • In Super Bowl XL, Hines Ward had as many yards receiving as Roethlisberger had passing (123 yards). This occurred thanks to a trick play from the arm of Antwaan Randle-El to Ward for a 43 yard touchdown - this means Roethlisberger only netted 43 yards total from receivers not named Hines Ward.

Defensive Players (8 winners)

  • As mentioned above, records aren't that great when it comes to what defensive players did to earn their MVPs.
  • For the three secondary players to win the award, all three had exactly two interceptions each. The latest of which was 10 years ago when Dexter Jackson snatched two Rich Gannon passes.
  • There have also been three linemen/tackles to win it. Two of these guys shared the award (Harvey Martin & Randy White in Super Bowl XII for the winning Dallas Cowboys). The other was Richard Dent, who had two sacks and two forced fumbles in the Bears' rout of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
  • Only two linebackers have won the award: Chuck Howley in Super Bowl V & the one-and-only Ray Lewis in Super Bowl XXXV.

Other (1 winner)

  • There was also the lone special teams guy to win the award. Desmond Howard earned the award in Super Bowl XXXI with some great returns (244 all-purpose yards, including a 99-yard kickoff return).

This begs the question...

What players have value if betting the Super Bowl MVP? Based on the recent data, the wide receiver position has the best value for MVP. Running backs need an amazing game, including a lot of carries, to take away the MVP from QBs. Gore has a better shot to get 20+ carries than Rice, but I'm eliminating both since no RB has won this in 15 years.

For this bet, you would want to target a guy who has a chance to get around 60% of his QB's total yards.

This leaves three realistic long-shots to win the Super Bowl MVP:

Torrey Smith 17/1
Michael Crabtree 18/1
Anquan Boldin 20/1

If you think the Ravens will win, I would personally look to take Smith. He has the best big-play potential (17 yards/catch & 8 TDs vs. Boldin's 14 yards/catch & 4 TDs this year).

However, with me taking the Niners in this game, I am going to make Michael Crabtree my Super Bowl MVP bet.

In Kaepernick's 9 starts including the playoffs, 37% of his yards (771 of 2104) and 7 of his 13 TD passes have gone to Crabtree. This includes five games where Crabtree accumulated 45% or more of Kaepernick's yards.

Defending the Award


If you think this will be a defensive battle, you may want to considering looking for long-shot defensive players to win the award. Ray Lewis is priced out of this (only 8/1 odds, terrible for a position that's only won the award twice in 46 Super Bowls). I'd suggest looking at the following players if you sense a struggle:

  1. Ed Reed 35/1 (If he picks a couple passes, this is possible. With his ball-hawking skills, he could also return one for a TD)
  2. Patrick Willis 45/1 (His odds were at 90/1 earlier this week). If this is a low-scoring game, Willis will likely have his fingerprints on the game.
  3. Aldon Smith 70/1 (He hasn't had a sack since Week 14. All of his 19.5 sacks came in the 13 games before then, including 5 games with multiple sacks. If the score stays low and he can get a couple sacks, including a turnover, Smith could win it)
  4. Terrell Suggs 75/1 (He hasn't been the dominant player he was last year when he took the defensive player of the year honors, but Suggs is still worth a look. His best game this season came against Denver in the Divisional Round, notching 10 tackles/2 sacks, so perhaps he has a little juice in the tank for a great game against the Niners.

1/25/2013

Squares Root (For Teams Not Their Own)

Root root root for the home team
If they don't win, just root for someone else...

-Author Unknown


Ok, maybe that author is me. Could be, I don't know.

Anywho, the topic that's on my mind a week before the Super Bowl isn't so much about the game as it is about the people who watch the game.

You. Me. Your Mom (yeah, she watches it). Even your lady friends who can only name one player on each team, and that's because she's in love with one of them (Kaepernick) and thinks the other guy got away with murder over a decade ago (Ray Lewis - btw, the case against him was so flawed, but people continue to speak of this "murder" as truth).

When these people go to parties, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone staying completely neutral. Which is strange, since more than likely, his or her favorite team is looonnnnnnnnnng gone from the Super Bowl. 

And yes, I'm guilty of this too, although my team rooting interest is almost always (as in 100% of the time) tied together with whoever I bet on. If you're betting on a game and have a rooting angle, I get it. If one of the teams is a division rival of yours, I get that, too. For example, no way should Bears fans be rooting for the Packers in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and vice versa years before that.

However, when people have no reason to root for or against any team, they will still find some kind of angle to do just that. Out of thin air, they'll find a reason. For this Super Bowl, I've already found a few people who have been bitching about Colin Kaepernick. Yes, he does come off as a douchebag, and yes, he did trademark the word Kaepernicking. But if any of us were in the same spot and our last names got famous, we'd be doing the same thing. After all, it's better to make money off of your name than have someone else do it. Also, some of the hate is rooted in the common ingredient of hate - jealousy.

On the other side, I know some folks might be rooting against the Ravens because "Ray Lewis got away with murder" (blah, blah, blah...find something truthful to hate guys for). At the end of the day, people who aren't already fans of the teams or don't have any monetary interest on either team will find a way to root for or against the Niners or the Ravens. 

Is it human nature? Maybe. I feel like we do this with things other than sports as well. With TV shows and movies that we watch, we root for who we perceive to be the good guys and wish ill thoughts and fates for the bad guys.

Word of warning to those casually rooting for the Ravens (or against the Niners) who may be in my presence on February 3rd: I may curse at you, but only because I'm rooting for the Niners. Like, for real rooting for them.

And also my squares.

10/15/2012

A Ray to Remember: Ray Lewis and a Reflection on My Evolution Watching Football

Can you imagine the NFL without Ray Lewis? Well, you may not need to imagine much longer. In fact, it may be a reality.

Ray - It Ain't So
Lewis left yesterday's game against the Cowboys with a torn tricep, leaving his season (and career) in serious doubt.

I don't know about you, but whenever he is done (if it is a fact that he is done now), I will definitely miss watching games and highlights featuring Lewis, probably the best and most feared linebacker that I've grown up watching.

I thought about it earlier today, and the thought simply blew my mind. Ray Lewis, part of the original Baltimore Ravens squad in 1996, started in the league when I was in middle school. Since then, I've gotten two college degrees (neither of which I've used to their fullest as of yet - that's another story), had three dogs come and/or go in my life, stood up in four weddings, among plenty of other random crap that I'm sure I could come up with.

The point - Ray Lewis has been a staple in my football watching lifetime. Back when he joined the league was around the time I would have a weekly pick'em pool with me, my dad and two neighbors down the street.

When I got my first job at Jewel and met many people who would become my best friends, that's when the confidence pools started, where you pick each game and then rank them based on how confident you are in them winning.

As a little bit of cash flowed in came the online betting - which I still do to this day. Add in fantasy football, my constant blogging about football and my recent introduction to DirecTV, and I've experienced just about every aspect of football in the past 16.5 years aside from playing it competitively.

All the while, Ray Lewis developed into and maintained elite status as the best linebacker in the league. My experiences with football-related items have evolved, from picking for or against Baltimore in a fun pool with my neighbors as a teenager to worrying about whether I should start my running back against his defense in fantasy football - normally I wouldn't unless I had no other options.

Some might remember him negatively for the obstruction of justice charge involving a double murder that occurred at a Super Bowl party in 2000, a year before he would go on to win Super Bowl MVP in the Ravens' first-ever franchise title. While I can't blame people for holding that against him, since he was acquitted of the most serious of charges, I won't hark too much on that memory of him when thinking back on his career.

When I think of Ray Lewis, I'll think of the scariest guy to step on the field. I never thought someone could look scary in purple - I was wrong.

I hope this isn't the end of his career. No one matched his energy - from his rookie year as a 21-year old kid to a 37-year old grizzled vet. If it is the end of his career, a part of my childhood NFL experiences watching the game has gone with him.

9/08/2012

The Bear Necessities: A 2012 Preview from Bears' Fans Point of View

With all the coverage I did on fans of out-of-market teams, I figured I should ask some questions to some Bears fans and see what they thought of this year. I was able to get nine fans to respond to the questions I sent them.

For the record, I have the Bears at 11-5 and winning the NFC North. I like their Super Bowl odds of 26/1 that can currently be found on 5dimes.com, although I don't have them winning it. I just find it to be good value.

Jennette Swick (w/ her b/f Chris)
Most of the people interviewed (ages range from early 20s to mid 40s) have been fans their whole lives. Jennette Swick's parents, whose first anniversary was the day the Bears won the Super Bowl in 1986, raised her on the Bears from a young age. On Sundays in the Fall, you'll catch her in her Dick Butkus jersey at Buffalo Wild Wings watching the game with the guys in her boyfriend Chris' fantasy league.

She admires players like Butkus who she believes played for the love of the game.

"They weren't making multimillion dollar contracts and doing hold outs," she said. "Yet alone, they were out there playing with broken bones."

While she's able to watch her Bears on a weekly basis, Sherman Griffin seems to have issues with getting a job that allows him to be off on Sundays.

Peanut Lovers

Like Jennette and several others who completed this survey, Sherman's favorite player is Peanut Tillman. He likes the way that Peanut plays.

"He hustles and gives me a chance to yell 'BALL' during the game," Sherman said.

Jennette and Brad Zoeteman, the youngest of survey participants, cited Peanut as their favorite based on his off-the-field endeavors.

"He definitely has a big heart when it comes to charities," Jennette said, "and I believe he plays with a lot of heart."

Brad's pre-game routine is similar to Jennette's, except he has a customized jersey that he has to put on before every game.

Concerns about 2012

Unlike many people who cited the Bears' offensive line as a potential worry heading into 2012, Brad is more worried about the health of the defensive core, which includes Peanut, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher & Julius Peppers.

"Finally a great offense, but now the defense is gonna crumble," Brad said.

Brandon Marshall/Jay Cutler

Most believe that Brandon Marshall will have an immediate impact. Don Flynn is predicting 1200 yards and nine visits to the end zone, while Bears fanatic Elias Valaveris is tabbing Marshall for 100 catches, 1300 yards and 10 TDs.

Paul Bodenlos (left), who apparently loves ranch.
Nick Pazoles thinks Marshall will be the best receiver the franchise has had in a long time, but feels his value is being overblown with all the weaknesses they have.

"The two biggest worries are directly tied together: weak offensive line and Cutler's health," Nick said. "People seem to ignore the fact that he has been hurt the last two seasons."

Paul Bodenlos agrees with the Cutler worry.

"This year's team can make a deep run," he said. "But the Bears proved already that a healthy Cutler is the key to the team's success."

As soon as Cutler joined the team, he instantly became Elias' favorite player. He likes his attitude and thinks Cutler is the best quarterback the Bears have ever had.

"I think he is a bad ass and doesn't care what people think of him," he said. "That is a quality that QB's should have. I'm so tired of watching all the scrubs that the Bears have had the past couple of years. I like watching a real QB."

Predictions

Everyone who answered the survey (all nine) believes the Bears will be at/above 8 wins. The most optimistic of predictions have the Bears winning the Super Bowl (Elias, Sherman, Rick Ryzner, Bob Flynn), while others seem to believe the Bears will be around 10 wins, which is slightly above what Vegas projects for the team (over/under 9.5 wins).

"I don't think there are any questions about them besides the O-Line," Sherman said. "They have been phenomenally better than in previous years."

Rick, whose been a fan since the early 80s, is the eternal optimist when it comes to the Bears and their Super Bowl chances.

"I always predict they're going all the way," he said. "Don't care if I'm wrong in the end."

Like many others, Rick's been to multiple games (in his case, a total of 10). He had the privilege of meeting Walter Payton, who was cited the most as favorite Bear of all time.

Pre-Game Rituals/DA COACH
Bob Flynn

Bob Flynn is among those who admire Sweetness. Bob, the man with the mustache, became a fan of the Bears when Ditka grew out his stache. He has the most established and detailed routine of those who participated in the survey.

Bob has a picture sketch of "DA COACH" in a frame on his wall that he prays to before games. Depending on the situation, he will drink Ditka wine during the games.Whether he watches the game out on the deck or in the living room, Bob has to sit in his round Chicago Bears egg chair.

"It's the only way," he said.

Paul was lucky enough to meet Ditka the night of his bachelor party in Vegas.

"Getting to shake his hand may sway my favoritism," Paul said.

He also has a good ritual, at least in my eyes.

"Pregame routine consists of cracking open a beer, drink the beer. And then cracking open another beer. And then another, and another, and another," said Paul, who recently moved to Arizona and will rely on Sirius radio to listen to Bears games. Luckily, he has a Bears bar within walking distance that he plans on attending a few times this year.

Super Bowl Shuffle

Don in his Forte jersey with his friend Christopher.
Bob doesn't remember the words to the whole Super Bowl Shuffle, but he has a chance to memorize them now that he has an original cassette tape of it. He will likely be playing it on a continuous loop if his prediction of a Bears over Patriots Super Bowl comes in.

His brother Don also doesn't know all the words of the hit 80s song, but he has an excuse.

"Years of drinking way too much made me forget a lot," Don said.

No one surveyed said they knew all of the lyrics, but Nick had a particular favorite part of the song that he remembers.

"If you put the music on, I could sing along," Nick said. "Gary Fencik is by far my favorite part."


Memorable Moments

Everyone surveyed has been to at least one Bears game except Sherman, who is hoping to change that this year.

Here's some of their favorite moments:

Jennette (doesn't remember the exact game): It was snowing so hard, we could barely see a thing cause the wind was whipping it around and we were freezing. Now that I look back at that, it was the only way to truly enjoy a classic Bears game.

Bob (opening day of 2005 season): The Bears beat the Lions pretty impressively that day but the awesome thing comes in my personal experience. I got to meet Keith Van Horne of the 85 Bears and got to see his Super Bowl ring right up close.

Don (vs Broncos): Bears over Broncos in overtime. Two run backs by Hester in the game.

Rick (vs Tampa Bay): 7 degrees against Tampa was a fun game - Tampa lost.


Elias (right) and yours truly at SF/Chi 2009
Elias (vs San Fran in San Fran, November 2009): I will always remember Cutler throwing five interceptions and almost somehow winning the game. And then we didn't get that bus back to the hotel for a while and I was pretty pissed.

Brad (vs. Detroit): Some broad was wearing a Favre jersey and they put her on the Jumbotron and the place erupted in boo's. Then she gave the finger.

Nick Pazoles: no memorable moments.

Paul (week 17 game a few years back in a game not featuring the Carolina Panthers): My sister was dating her husband at the time. The Bears were out of the playoffs. But it was one of the coldest days on record. We stayed all four quarters of a meaningless game...My brother-in-law is a Panthers fan.

9/06/2012

Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: Pittsburgh


As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.

Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.

My tenth feature highlights a Pittsburgh Steelers fan. Mike Walsh was born and raised in Chicago but became a fan of the Steelers during the Steel Curtain days of the 1970s. I know Mike from my days at the Daily Southtown (now the SouthtownStar) when I would call him on a weekly basis (he works at De La Salle) for the team's latest's stats.

Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints 
4. Minnesota Vikings
5. Denver Broncos


A lifelong Chicagoan, Mike Walsh grew up in the age of the NFL where the Pittsburgh Steelers & their "Steel Curtain" were making their presence known as one of the most formidable and feared franchises in the league in their 1970s dynasty. This, along with the Steelers garb, was a big selling point in Mike's choice of favorite football team.

"I became a Steelers fan because they were really good in the 70s when I was a little kid and starting to follow football," Mike said. "I loved the black uniforms and the helmet as well."
Mean Joe Greene was one of Mike's favorites. Pretty sure the little kid is not Mike.

His favorite players of all time came from those teams: Mike Webster, Jack Lambert, Joe Greene & Lynn Swann - all of whom are immortalized in the Hall of Fame.

Thanks to their success that started in Mike's childhood and has continued into modern times, the Steelers are often featured on national TV and prime-time games. This allows Mike to consume many of the games on regular TV, not DirecTV like many fans of out-of-town teams must do. Otherwise, he'll watch the NFL Red Zone channel, catch the highlights and read the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette online.

Just because he is a Steelers fan does not mean Mike hates the Bears. In fact, he considers himself a fan of his hometown team, just not as much as Pittsburgh.

"I root for the Bears every game except on the rare occasions when they play the Steelers," he said. "I do consider the Bears my 1-A NFL team."

In addition to following some Bears stuff in the local papers, Mike has also attended a Bears game at Soldier Field when they faced the Steelers in the early 90s. He went with a friend who was a Bears' season ticket holder and was given specific instructions when attending the game.

"He threatened to kick my ass if he saw any Steelers apparel," Mike said. "It was winter, so I was OK".

He believes that B-Bo Knows prediction of the Steelers (10-6, AFC North champs) is close to his own thoughts, but he went a step further in his prediction. In addition to a division title, he expects Pittsburgh to be AFC Champs and a legitimate contender to win the Super Bowl.

Speaking of which, the Steelers own 6 Super Bowl titles, the only team in NFL history with that distinction. Mike enjoys this fact and makes sure his football-following friends know about it.

"It means everything since I am a diehard Steelers fan and two good friends despise my beloved Steelers," he said. "It gives me bragging rights and allows me to gloat, good-naturedly."

Mike Walsh
(whole life in/near Chicago)
Favorite team Steelers
A fan since… 1970s
# of games attended 1 (in Chicago)
Choice of Team Consumption National TV, RedZone 
Channel, Pittsburgh Gazette
Favorite Player All-Time Mike Webster, Lynn Swann
Jack Lambert, Joe Greene
Favorite Player Currently Heath Miller (O)
Troy Polamalu (D)
2012 Prediction (12-4, AFC Champs)
Vegas Projection for team 10 wins
(as of 9-6-12) 5dimes.eu
Over/under? Over
Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu (+115)
Super Bowl odds 20/1 (+2000)
(as of 9-6-12) - 5dimes.eu