The 2012 NBA Playoffs are right around the corner. I got half of the Finals right last year (Heat but no Thunder). Now, that particular match-up is the one that many would like to see (and one that many expect to see).
The Spurs expect to make a strong push as they get the #1 seed in the West for the 2nd year in a row. Somehow, they were written off by many (except for my friend Tom), probably because their age was looked at as a detriment in the compacted schedule due to the lockout. Popovich (along with Thibodeau and Vogel) should be considered a front-runner for Coach of the Year with how he has been able to manage his version of the Big Three (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) along with the rest of his roster. I came across a stat on Twitter (didn't double check it, so take this for what it's worth) that the Spurs only lost 3 games total when their roster (I assume their normal starters) was at full strength.
The Thunder look like a good bet to make a run. Coming off of his third straight scoring title, Kevin Durant looks to have a complete squad around him (another scoring option in Westbrook, solid defenders in Harden and Ibaka, a veteran with a few rings in Derek Fisher). I'm looking at Spurs/Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder taking it.
The top spot in the East goes to the Bulls again. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose due to various injuries for what seemed like months, Tom Thibodeau was able to muster out a 50-16 record and the top overall seed in the NBA. However, no matter how much Bulls and their fans may be happy with the #1 seed in the East, they will (and should) be ultimately judged on whether they can make the next step in the 2012 Playoffs and advance to the NBA Finals. This will likely involve a matchup versus the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.
When the season started, we all wanted to just fast-forward into the end of May and get the Miami/Chicago series going already - pretty much dismissing the rest of the East. While I still think this will be the series, my convictions on the series are not as strong. I'm not sure if Miami has been on cruise control in the regular season and waiting for the playoffs to step everything up, but they've given me an uneasy feeling in terms of backing them to win it all. They had a two-week streak earlier this year of beating teams by 12+ points, so I know there's a championship caliber team there if they play up to their talent level.
Last year, the Heat took four straight after losing Game 1 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of the credit for that series win goes to LeBron's defense on Rose, one of the few guys who can match Rose's speed and has many inches on the reigning MVP. I'd say the Bulls look better as a team this year, but the playoffs are a different matter. I still think the Heat will take the East, especially with Rose's health lingering as a constant question throughout the year. If Rose can maintain a semblence of health, I'd give the Bulls a good shot of winning it. BUT, and it's a big BUT, someone else will need to step up as a scorer in the series in the event LBJ contains Rose just as well as last year. With Rose's health in question, I have to give the Heat the edge.
You may argue that the Bulls played well (even against the Heat) without Rose this year, but they will need Rose at his best in a 7-game series (no matter how deep their bench) against the Heat.
So for the second year in a row, I'm going Heat/Thunder in the finals, with the Heat winning it. It's not much of a reach, but it's just what I see happening. If you care to provide your own opinions, I'm all ears.
Eastern Conference Playoffs
R1: Bulls over Sixers (sweeeeeep); Celtics over Atlanta in 6 (I can't trust Atlanta. Ever.) Miami over NY in 5; Pacers over Magic in 6
R2: Bulls over Celtics in 7 (trying to duplicate their series from 2010, with the reverse result); Miami over Indiana in 6
ECF: Miami over Chicago in 6
Western Conference Playoffs
R1: Spurs over Jazz in 5; Memphis over LAC in 6; Denver over LAL in 6 (they will miss World Peace); Thunder over Mavericks in 6
R2: Spurs over Memphis in 7; Thunder over Denver in 5
WCF: Thunder over Spurs in 6
Finals
Heat over Thunder in 6.
Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade
Regular Season Award Predictions
Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel, Pacers
League MVP: LBJ, Miami
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cle
6th Man: James Harden, OKC
Improved Player: Ryan Anderson, Magic
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC
4/27/2012
Grandma Bolek - A Year Later
I remember last year like it was yesterday.
April 27th - woke up my usual time to roll out of bed and start a busy day of work from home. My boss was looking to get business for a few of our consultants that were nearing the end of their stints at their respective projects.
I briefly considered joining my friend Don for his Game 7 journey to see his Pittsburgh Penguins in Pitt, but knew with how busy I was with work, I couldn't go. Plus, in the back of my mind, I knew that the end of my grandma's life could be near.
The night before, based on how my dad sounded after visiting my grandma at her house, right around the block, I knew that Grandma Bolek was taking a turn for the worse, with a life expectancy not in her favor.
As I started working that drury Wednesday morning, I got that call that I knew was coming but wasn't ready to answer. Caller ID shows up as Dad, who had just went over to my Grandma's about 30-45 minutes earlier. I answered the phone and could immediately hear the tears in his voice. Virginia Bolek had passed away at the age of 90.
An Unequaled Legacy
Nine great decades on this Earth. People couldn't ask for a better life. She had a total of 50 (FIFTY!) grandchildren (15), great-grandchildren (33) and great-great-grandchildren (2). In our own ways, we all represent and carry on the legacy that Grandma Bolek left behind.
The marriage of Peter and Virginia Bolek was the start of a wide family tree that continues to expand as we speak, with my brother's upcoming marriage bringing yet another Bolek onboard (Welcome Amber!).
I always wish I had a chance to get to know both of my Grandpas better. My Grandpa Bolek, who passed when I was a young teen, taught me how to pour my first beer as I poured an Old Style of his while tilting the glass. I would have loved to have a beer with him and my Grandpa Raynor during my adulthood, but it wasn't meant to be.
After the passing of my Grandpa Bolek when I was 15 (1998), I bowled my first ever 200 game that same day. Of course, it was dedicated to him.
Meanwhile, Grandma Bolek continued trucking on without her long-time husband. She may have shrunk to under 100 pounds and could have easily blown away in a 20 mph wind in her later years, but don't mistake small for weak. To get by without your life partner for as long as she did, she had to be a strong woman. A great matriarch for all of us Boleks to look up to.
The support network around her definitely helped, with all five of her kids within a 30 minute drive, many within a mile or two. Christmas Eves were always a special treat, with Grandma at the center stage getting the gifts from her kids and grand-kids.
As the years went on, Grandma maintained a healthy life for the most part. Occasionally, you'll see someone close to you have a relative that suffers the last couple years of their lives. Certainly no way that I'd want to go. And luckily for us, it wasn't the way that Grandma Bolek was. Up until the last two months of her life, she maintained a mental strength that rivaled someone decades younger than her.
It was tough seeing Grandma during the latter months. It wasn't the grandma I grew up with, playing Store with me, my brother and sister; hiding the plastic Easter Eggs with the quarters in them in her backyard; celebrating Halloween by dressing up like a witch as if she were 10.
The Call...
So when I got that call from my dad around 8:45am that day to hear of her passing, my immediate reaction was sadness. But then I thought about her suffering and realized that it would be better (at least I think) for her to die peacefully, which she did in the place she called home for about 30 years.
I decided I wanted to see her after her passing in what was my second home for much of my childhood. I called my boss as I was making the walk around the block to let him know of the passing.
When I finally got there and saw her lifeless body, I knew she died peacefully. While wiping away tears, it made me happy knowing that she didn't suffer much. My dad and all of his siblings and their significant others were all there. It was fitting for her to have them all there, as she was a person that everyone wanted to be around.
When it came time to honor my grandma, I did it the best way I knew how: in prose. Here's the link to what I wrote and read the day of her funeral: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2011/04/aint-she-grand-bolek-matriarch.html. I was pleasantly surprised with the reaction that I got afterwards, with many of my family coming up to me thanking me for reading that in front of the family at the church.
It was the least I could do for the woman who defined what it was to be a Bolek. From her, I saw a woman who didn't mind passing gas in public - definitely a characteristic that some of us Boleks have carried on (much to the dismay of the people around us).
But on a more serious note, I saw a woman who was the nicest mother, friend, sister, and grandmother to all. I saw a woman who had a profound impact on all of our lives, who enjoyed seeing all of us grow up and spoiled the hell out of all of us.
We still miss you Grandma. We try living up to the Bolek name as best as we can. We can only hope to leave a shred of the legacy that you did.
Rest in peace to Grandma Bolek, a year removed from this world.
Love always,
Your Family & Friends
April 27th - woke up my usual time to roll out of bed and start a busy day of work from home. My boss was looking to get business for a few of our consultants that were nearing the end of their stints at their respective projects.
I briefly considered joining my friend Don for his Game 7 journey to see his Pittsburgh Penguins in Pitt, but knew with how busy I was with work, I couldn't go. Plus, in the back of my mind, I knew that the end of my grandma's life could be near.
The night before, based on how my dad sounded after visiting my grandma at her house, right around the block, I knew that Grandma Bolek was taking a turn for the worse, with a life expectancy not in her favor.
As I started working that drury Wednesday morning, I got that call that I knew was coming but wasn't ready to answer. Caller ID shows up as Dad, who had just went over to my Grandma's about 30-45 minutes earlier. I answered the phone and could immediately hear the tears in his voice. Virginia Bolek had passed away at the age of 90.
An Unequaled Legacy
Nine great decades on this Earth. People couldn't ask for a better life. She had a total of 50 (FIFTY!) grandchildren (15), great-grandchildren (33) and great-great-grandchildren (2). In our own ways, we all represent and carry on the legacy that Grandma Bolek left behind.
The marriage of Peter and Virginia Bolek was the start of a wide family tree that continues to expand as we speak, with my brother's upcoming marriage bringing yet another Bolek onboard (Welcome Amber!).
I always wish I had a chance to get to know both of my Grandpas better. My Grandpa Bolek, who passed when I was a young teen, taught me how to pour my first beer as I poured an Old Style of his while tilting the glass. I would have loved to have a beer with him and my Grandpa Raynor during my adulthood, but it wasn't meant to be.
After the passing of my Grandpa Bolek when I was 15 (1998), I bowled my first ever 200 game that same day. Of course, it was dedicated to him.
Meanwhile, Grandma Bolek continued trucking on without her long-time husband. She may have shrunk to under 100 pounds and could have easily blown away in a 20 mph wind in her later years, but don't mistake small for weak. To get by without your life partner for as long as she did, she had to be a strong woman. A great matriarch for all of us Boleks to look up to.
The support network around her definitely helped, with all five of her kids within a 30 minute drive, many within a mile or two. Christmas Eves were always a special treat, with Grandma at the center stage getting the gifts from her kids and grand-kids.
As the years went on, Grandma maintained a healthy life for the most part. Occasionally, you'll see someone close to you have a relative that suffers the last couple years of their lives. Certainly no way that I'd want to go. And luckily for us, it wasn't the way that Grandma Bolek was. Up until the last two months of her life, she maintained a mental strength that rivaled someone decades younger than her.
It was tough seeing Grandma during the latter months. It wasn't the grandma I grew up with, playing Store with me, my brother and sister; hiding the plastic Easter Eggs with the quarters in them in her backyard; celebrating Halloween by dressing up like a witch as if she were 10.
The Call...
So when I got that call from my dad around 8:45am that day to hear of her passing, my immediate reaction was sadness. But then I thought about her suffering and realized that it would be better (at least I think) for her to die peacefully, which she did in the place she called home for about 30 years.
I decided I wanted to see her after her passing in what was my second home for much of my childhood. I called my boss as I was making the walk around the block to let him know of the passing.
When I finally got there and saw her lifeless body, I knew she died peacefully. While wiping away tears, it made me happy knowing that she didn't suffer much. My dad and all of his siblings and their significant others were all there. It was fitting for her to have them all there, as she was a person that everyone wanted to be around.
When it came time to honor my grandma, I did it the best way I knew how: in prose. Here's the link to what I wrote and read the day of her funeral: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2011/04/aint-she-grand-bolek-matriarch.html. I was pleasantly surprised with the reaction that I got afterwards, with many of my family coming up to me thanking me for reading that in front of the family at the church.
It was the least I could do for the woman who defined what it was to be a Bolek. From her, I saw a woman who didn't mind passing gas in public - definitely a characteristic that some of us Boleks have carried on (much to the dismay of the people around us).
But on a more serious note, I saw a woman who was the nicest mother, friend, sister, and grandmother to all. I saw a woman who had a profound impact on all of our lives, who enjoyed seeing all of us grow up and spoiled the hell out of all of us.
We still miss you Grandma. We try living up to the Bolek name as best as we can. We can only hope to leave a shred of the legacy that you did.
Rest in peace to Grandma Bolek, a year removed from this world.
Love always,
Your Family & Friends
4/26/2012
Mocking the Draft
There's nothing that gets people more worked up in the American sporting world away from the playing of the sport itself than drafts - specifically the NFL Draft. It's the time of year where people who watched 1-2 games of college football suddenly know about 90-95% of the players available to draft.
These "experts" know what player will fill each team's need the best, based highly on what they read from other "experts", which include talking heads on sports networks and radio.
The second category of experts has watched a little more football than the first group, but by no means would I call them experts. With very few exceptions, many of these folks are merely just guessing without any actual knowledge of who a general manager/coach is targeting with their exact picks.
I came across a site that ranks the efficiency of writers and other draft experts in their ability to pick the first round of the draft: http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml. The system for ranking who picks the best is fairly simple - 2 points are given to a guy who picks the exact team/pick that a player is picked by and 1 point is given if you simply picked the guy to be picked in the first round. Note that the best guys are able to pick 8-9 players to their correct teams (or about 25%), with the very best picking 12 of the 32 (less than 40%). That doesn't seem very expertly. It seems more like a batting average.
I don't care that expertly isn't a word - it is now.
With this year's draft, anyone who isn't able to pick at least two of the players to the right team is a complete moron, so I wouldn't be surprised if someone is able to match or exceed that 12 number, but probably no better than 13 or 14 right.
Anyone who spends a few minutes reading team mock drafts suddenly uses those mocks as the standard by which a player can be considered a reach or a steal. While it's not a bad start to base your opinions on this, I'd say you're better off reading the guys who study this for a living and not the guys who write the random blog (i.e. me). There's a reason I'm not doing a mock draft - I don't have an eye for evaluating college players outside of the statistics I see.
I'm definitely not familiar with offensive tackles - I like to rely on the real expert's opinions on those. I have an idea of some of the offensive studs and some of the defensive guys, but by no means do I know enough to develop a competent mock draft. And based on the scores that many of these "experts" have had in the past 5 years, neither do they.
I say - take these mock drafts for what they are worth: one man's opinion on who each team should or will select based on their perceived needs and "value" of the pick. Sometimes you may not have a particular need at a position, but a player may fall to your team that is too good to pass up. What one team may perceive to be a potential bust, another may see a Pro Bowler (well, this term may be antique now with the Pro Bowl potentially being extinct).
Enjoy the 2012 draft. Hopefully your team gets someone who helps your team out in the next 5-10 years. If they don't get someone that you want, there's a good chance they may know a little more than you and they are picking that player for a reason.
Unless they're the Cleveland Browns. In that case, I say - Enjoy your Super Bowl today!
 |
| Ryan Leaf: From 2nd pick overall (almost 1st BEFORE Peyton Manning) to Bust to Fugitive. Perfect example on not to always trust experts. |
The second category of experts has watched a little more football than the first group, but by no means would I call them experts. With very few exceptions, many of these folks are merely just guessing without any actual knowledge of who a general manager/coach is targeting with their exact picks.
I came across a site that ranks the efficiency of writers and other draft experts in their ability to pick the first round of the draft: http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml. The system for ranking who picks the best is fairly simple - 2 points are given to a guy who picks the exact team/pick that a player is picked by and 1 point is given if you simply picked the guy to be picked in the first round. Note that the best guys are able to pick 8-9 players to their correct teams (or about 25%), with the very best picking 12 of the 32 (less than 40%). That doesn't seem very expertly. It seems more like a batting average.
I don't care that expertly isn't a word - it is now.
With this year's draft, anyone who isn't able to pick at least two of the players to the right team is a complete moron, so I wouldn't be surprised if someone is able to match or exceed that 12 number, but probably no better than 13 or 14 right.
Anyone who spends a few minutes reading team mock drafts suddenly uses those mocks as the standard by which a player can be considered a reach or a steal. While it's not a bad start to base your opinions on this, I'd say you're better off reading the guys who study this for a living and not the guys who write the random blog (i.e. me). There's a reason I'm not doing a mock draft - I don't have an eye for evaluating college players outside of the statistics I see.
I'm definitely not familiar with offensive tackles - I like to rely on the real expert's opinions on those. I have an idea of some of the offensive studs and some of the defensive guys, but by no means do I know enough to develop a competent mock draft. And based on the scores that many of these "experts" have had in the past 5 years, neither do they.
I say - take these mock drafts for what they are worth: one man's opinion on who each team should or will select based on their perceived needs and "value" of the pick. Sometimes you may not have a particular need at a position, but a player may fall to your team that is too good to pass up. What one team may perceive to be a potential bust, another may see a Pro Bowler (well, this term may be antique now with the Pro Bowl potentially being extinct).
Enjoy the 2012 draft. Hopefully your team gets someone who helps your team out in the next 5-10 years. If they don't get someone that you want, there's a good chance they may know a little more than you and they are picking that player for a reason.
Unless they're the Cleveland Browns. In that case, I say - Enjoy your Super Bowl today!
4/21/2012
Part of the Game: A Non-Hockey Fan's Views on Hockey Crap (NHL Round 1)
This always feels like a dangerous blog for a non-hockey fan such as myself to write. Many of the people who are hockey fans and "fans" will take offense to this, but I'm here to write about the Hawks stuff as they sit down 3-1.
The one moment that is isolated in everyone's minds with the Hawks series is Hossa's concussion at the hands of Raffi Torres, who is currently suspended indefinitely. You know it's a big deal when media outlets that don't normally give a shit about hockey are reporting on it.
The game before, Andrew Shaw drew a suspension for his hit on the Coyotes goalie, a suspension that drew the ire of much of Blackhawks nation.
Many in the fanbase say that Mike Smith (the goalie) flopped to draw the penalty, but I suspect that if this happened to a goalie of the Hawks (Crawford or Emery), Hawks fans may react a little differently and that they wouldn't mind the suspension of a Coyotes player for a hit.
The Hossa hit appears more out of line based on the concussion and Torres' history with this, but you'd never know that the Hawks do anything like this (i.e. cheap shots that lead to suspensions) based on the comments I am reading on Twitter and Facebook after Game 3.
I asked a friend of mine who follows hockey (and is impartial to the Hawks) about everything. He agreed that the Hossa hit was ugly, but that the Hawks are not innocent of being civil on the ice. He reminded me of an incident towards the end of March (Duncan Keith elbowing Daniel Sedin) that can be seen here, with an explanation by Brendan Shanahan, former player and current head of player safety.
With Keith's lack of a record, he received a 5-game suspension for this penalty. He received a suspension because the elbowing incident was "dangerous, reckless, and caused injury."
Meanwhile, Sedin missed 12 games due to the concussion received from the hit, returning for Game 4 and helping the Canucks avoid a sweep in their first-round series against the Canucks.
Maybe it has to do with the rivalry with the Canucks, but I didn't hear a huge uproar about the Hawks being a dirty team (particularly from their own fans) after this hit from the general public. I do give credit to some of my Hawks friends though. I am looking back at a friend's thread about the incident, and most of the people that I know are Hawks fans (I can attest that all in this particular conversation are true Hawks fans and not the type that joined in 2009) agreed that Keith deserved to be suspended for the hit. However, the uproar of Hossa's hit generated more interest in part due to the hit being in the playoffs, and also due to the hit being against a Hawks star, not an opponent's star.
Part of the Game
Hockey is a physical sport, and the fans of the sport are proud of the physical nature of the sport. None of them want to see fighting and other physical acts from the sport banned, as many of them believe that would take away from the nature of the sport. However, fans do want the players to play within the "rules" when it comes to the hits and other hockey-related things that have always been "a part of the game".
I put these things in quotes because I find it hard for hockey to ever effectively regulate itself without pissing off all of the die-hard fans who expect the game to be played a certain way. A punch to the head of your star player makes you think about things a certain way, but if your third-string goon is doing the damage to another team's star, it's accepted as part of the game, how the game has always been.
Whether you like him or not, under the leadership of Roger Goddell, the NFL has done its best to eliminate the crap that has always been accepted as "part of the game". No one is naive to think that the Saints were the first to have a form of a bounty system within their organization. But with the repeated warnings that the Saints received about it and the organization pretty much ignoring it, the NFL had no choice but to lay the hammer down on the Saints for its ill-conceived program. This sets a precedent for future teams to consider before starting/continuing with their own programs. The concussion issue, especially with the players of the past suing the NFL for not effectively preparing them regarding player safety, is scaring the hell out of Goddell and his boys. It scares them in the present tense in the form of legal issues, but also in the future, where the NFL could face an uncertain future and potentially go the way of boxing if they were to completely ignore safety issues (even if they don't ignore it, it could still face an uncertain future - I don't think the NFL is invincible).
While the NHL is more of a Canadian sport, I do believe it should have the same worries about its sport fading into (further) oblivion if it doesn't start valuing player safety. After all, without players, you have no sport.
Is hockey too niched of a sport for the mainstream sports fan to actually give a crap on whether they change the rules to protect players from injury? From my perspective, it seems like hockey fans, like many football fans (myself, I don't need huge hits for football to be enjoyable), take great pride in their sport being a physical sport, one where their sport's athletes are modern day gladiators.
So you can forgive me when I say that I don't feel all that bad when players in such a sport get hurt. A sport that encourages physical play, where fights and hard hits are cheered upon instead of gasped at (like bench-clearing brawls in baseball and basketball).
I'm not sure where I was going with this - I think it was just to say that I don't think that what Torres did to Hossa is any different than what Keith or what many hockey players do to others. It's just that now, it was done in the playoffs and to one of their own instead of a star rival player's (again, I speak of those silent on the issue in March - many of my real Hawks friends stepped up and said Keith deserved it with the hit to Sedin).
I just find it hard to take critiques of hits seriously when the same judgment isn't applied to your own team. As a 49ers fan in football, if my team uses cheap tactics to win games, I expect them to be punished. I am objective enough to know when one of my own has crossed the line. Then again, the average fan (i.e. ignorant piece of crap) would probably be like the average Hawks (and average ignorant sports fan in general) and only care when the incident happened against their team. If their player does it, it's a case of "See No Evil, Hear No Evil".
Luckily, most friends of mine aren't average fans and aren't completely blind and know dirty, unethical sports when they see them. I'm glad that my closest friends who are true hockey fans don't apply to the idiot label and can agree that Hossa's hit, while dirty, is just among one of many dirty hits that occur in hockey all the time. Let's not forget that the suspension for the hit was indefinite.
Ok, I'm done. It's 3am. If you don't like this, tough.
Good night, and enjoy the rest of the hockey playoffs.
The one moment that is isolated in everyone's minds with the Hawks series is Hossa's concussion at the hands of Raffi Torres, who is currently suspended indefinitely. You know it's a big deal when media outlets that don't normally give a shit about hockey are reporting on it.
The game before, Andrew Shaw drew a suspension for his hit on the Coyotes goalie, a suspension that drew the ire of much of Blackhawks nation.
Many in the fanbase say that Mike Smith (the goalie) flopped to draw the penalty, but I suspect that if this happened to a goalie of the Hawks (Crawford or Emery), Hawks fans may react a little differently and that they wouldn't mind the suspension of a Coyotes player for a hit.
The Hossa hit appears more out of line based on the concussion and Torres' history with this, but you'd never know that the Hawks do anything like this (i.e. cheap shots that lead to suspensions) based on the comments I am reading on Twitter and Facebook after Game 3.
I asked a friend of mine who follows hockey (and is impartial to the Hawks) about everything. He agreed that the Hossa hit was ugly, but that the Hawks are not innocent of being civil on the ice. He reminded me of an incident towards the end of March (Duncan Keith elbowing Daniel Sedin) that can be seen here, with an explanation by Brendan Shanahan, former player and current head of player safety.
With Keith's lack of a record, he received a 5-game suspension for this penalty. He received a suspension because the elbowing incident was "dangerous, reckless, and caused injury."
Meanwhile, Sedin missed 12 games due to the concussion received from the hit, returning for Game 4 and helping the Canucks avoid a sweep in their first-round series against the Canucks.
Maybe it has to do with the rivalry with the Canucks, but I didn't hear a huge uproar about the Hawks being a dirty team (particularly from their own fans) after this hit from the general public. I do give credit to some of my Hawks friends though. I am looking back at a friend's thread about the incident, and most of the people that I know are Hawks fans (I can attest that all in this particular conversation are true Hawks fans and not the type that joined in 2009) agreed that Keith deserved to be suspended for the hit. However, the uproar of Hossa's hit generated more interest in part due to the hit being in the playoffs, and also due to the hit being against a Hawks star, not an opponent's star.
Part of the Game
Hockey is a physical sport, and the fans of the sport are proud of the physical nature of the sport. None of them want to see fighting and other physical acts from the sport banned, as many of them believe that would take away from the nature of the sport. However, fans do want the players to play within the "rules" when it comes to the hits and other hockey-related things that have always been "a part of the game".
I put these things in quotes because I find it hard for hockey to ever effectively regulate itself without pissing off all of the die-hard fans who expect the game to be played a certain way. A punch to the head of your star player makes you think about things a certain way, but if your third-string goon is doing the damage to another team's star, it's accepted as part of the game, how the game has always been.
Whether you like him or not, under the leadership of Roger Goddell, the NFL has done its best to eliminate the crap that has always been accepted as "part of the game". No one is naive to think that the Saints were the first to have a form of a bounty system within their organization. But with the repeated warnings that the Saints received about it and the organization pretty much ignoring it, the NFL had no choice but to lay the hammer down on the Saints for its ill-conceived program. This sets a precedent for future teams to consider before starting/continuing with their own programs. The concussion issue, especially with the players of the past suing the NFL for not effectively preparing them regarding player safety, is scaring the hell out of Goddell and his boys. It scares them in the present tense in the form of legal issues, but also in the future, where the NFL could face an uncertain future and potentially go the way of boxing if they were to completely ignore safety issues (even if they don't ignore it, it could still face an uncertain future - I don't think the NFL is invincible).
While the NHL is more of a Canadian sport, I do believe it should have the same worries about its sport fading into (further) oblivion if it doesn't start valuing player safety. After all, without players, you have no sport.
Is hockey too niched of a sport for the mainstream sports fan to actually give a crap on whether they change the rules to protect players from injury? From my perspective, it seems like hockey fans, like many football fans (myself, I don't need huge hits for football to be enjoyable), take great pride in their sport being a physical sport, one where their sport's athletes are modern day gladiators.
So you can forgive me when I say that I don't feel all that bad when players in such a sport get hurt. A sport that encourages physical play, where fights and hard hits are cheered upon instead of gasped at (like bench-clearing brawls in baseball and basketball).
I'm not sure where I was going with this - I think it was just to say that I don't think that what Torres did to Hossa is any different than what Keith or what many hockey players do to others. It's just that now, it was done in the playoffs and to one of their own instead of a star rival player's (again, I speak of those silent on the issue in March - many of my real Hawks friends stepped up and said Keith deserved it with the hit to Sedin).
I just find it hard to take critiques of hits seriously when the same judgment isn't applied to your own team. As a 49ers fan in football, if my team uses cheap tactics to win games, I expect them to be punished. I am objective enough to know when one of my own has crossed the line. Then again, the average fan (i.e. ignorant piece of crap) would probably be like the average Hawks (and average ignorant sports fan in general) and only care when the incident happened against their team. If their player does it, it's a case of "See No Evil, Hear No Evil".
Luckily, most friends of mine aren't average fans and aren't completely blind and know dirty, unethical sports when they see them. I'm glad that my closest friends who are true hockey fans don't apply to the idiot label and can agree that Hossa's hit, while dirty, is just among one of many dirty hits that occur in hockey all the time. Let's not forget that the suspension for the hit was indefinite.
Ok, I'm done. It's 3am. If you don't like this, tough.
Good night, and enjoy the rest of the hockey playoffs.
4/18/2012
An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for NFL 2012
The NFL released its schedule yesterday, which seems to draw a ton of interest despite everyone's slate of opponents already known.
Everyone is thirsting for WHEN teams are playing, with everyone looking to see how often their team gets prime-time games and if they are on special dates (i.e. Thanksgiving or Christmas).
However, the one thing that annoys me to no end is when people will complain about one team's schedule being easier than others, despite the fact that 14 of the 16 games are already pre-determined (the normal 6 division games + playing one set division in each conference - 4 games each). The reason teams who have great records (i.e. Packers and Patriots) end up having the "easiest" schedule is because they don't have to face themselves, yet their divisional opponents have their 15-1/13-3 records counted against their own schedules twice.
This is one of but many things that people need to be educated on when it comes to this. An analysis of strength of schedule (no particular order):
Table of Strength of Schedule from end of 2010 for the 2011 season, how it changed as 2011 played out, and how much team improved/declined in win total. Strength of schedule for 2012 gathered from http://www.nflschedulesupersite.com/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/
Everyone is thirsting for WHEN teams are playing, with everyone looking to see how often their team gets prime-time games and if they are on special dates (i.e. Thanksgiving or Christmas).
However, the one thing that annoys me to no end is when people will complain about one team's schedule being easier than others, despite the fact that 14 of the 16 games are already pre-determined (the normal 6 division games + playing one set division in each conference - 4 games each). The reason teams who have great records (i.e. Packers and Patriots) end up having the "easiest" schedule is because they don't have to face themselves, yet their divisional opponents have their 15-1/13-3 records counted against their own schedules twice.
This is one of but many things that people need to be educated on when it comes to this. An analysis of strength of schedule (no particular order):
- For the most part, Strength of Schedule is combination of luck and strength of division. Why does New England have one of the easiest schedules next year? Check their division--no one finished better than 8-8. Also, check the divisions that they were already pre-assigned to: NFC West (aside from San Fran, same situation--no one better than 8-8) and the AFC South (weighed down by crappy Jaguars and Colts). Remember - 14 of EVERY TEAM'S 16 game schedule is already decided based on division and a rotating division in each conference. The only two games that are decided based on previous year's record - you play the equivalent place teams of the two divisions within your conference that you do not play already. Many times, the record of those teams isn't enough to offset the bad teams already on your schedule.
- Having an "easy" schedule does not equate to success. This should go without saying, but some people need to be reminded that the NFL changes greatly from year to year, with many teams making strong pushes and sharp declines out of nowhere. For example, any team who had the Colts on their schedule last year looked to be facing a 10-6 team from 2010, only to have Peyton Manning out for a year en route to a 2-14 season. Similarly, the 49ers went from 6-10 to 13-3 -- with many other examples in between on both extremes that show that looking at last year's record to see how tough this year's schedule will be is like using a compass to gauge the temperature.
Some examples of teams with tough schedules entering 2011 who did well: Detroit (tied for 3rd hardest schedule entering 2011 with six other teams at 133-123) went from 6-10 to 10-6 and their first playoff berth in ages. Houston (opponents 132-124 in 2010) did the same and won their first division title in franchise history.
The teams with the hardest schedules (Carolina at 142-114 and Buffalo at 137-119) didn't make the playoffs (both finished with 6 wins), but both teams finished with more wins than the year before (Carolina tripled their win total while Buffalo went from 4 to 6).
The teams with the easiest schedules entering the year (Arizona, Baltimore, San Francisco & Washington in Top 4) had mixed results, showing no particular pattern between how a team will do based on their opponent's record from last year. - Obviously, the point of the season that you play an opponent is important...but you can't tell me that a team has an easy schedule solely based on when you play a team. A guy I follow on Twitter made the argument that the Jets' schedule is killer out of the gate while the Patriots' toughest games are at home against the Niners and Texans. As I've stated before (and can't state enough) that 87.5% of your games are already pre-determined, so to figure out a way to make it so that the "good" teams you play throughout the season are spread out (so you're not stacking the deck against a team as this one Twitter follow of mine suggested w/ the Jets) is idiotic at best.
If your "easy" games out of the gate get you to a 2 or 3-0 record, does that improve your chances of making the playoffs? Sure, but if you're a true playoff team, you're going to find a way to beat the good/great teams (no matter where they come up on the schedule) on occasion while dominating the crap teams (let's say 65-70% - just to pull a number out of my ass). Let's say that you start a season with 4 teams who made the playoffs last year (2 at home, 2 on the road) - a 2-2 start isn't a bad first quarter of the year, 1-3/0-4, and it probably means you're not a good team to begin with. You can't use schedule as an excuse.
I do admit that timing of certain games will help a team win or lose a game or two that would have otherwise resulted in the opposite outcome - due to injuries, player development, weather, etc. But to say that the Patriots have a cakewalk of a schedule (compared to the Jets, who only have two different opponents) is really just saying that the Patriots are better than them and the difference between the different teams they face isn't much. - Strength of schedule entering a year is not what it will be when the year is done. Using the 2010 records of opponents and how their opponents actually fared can look like mirror images when the year is over.
Take a look at the chart below. A total of 10 teams saw their opponent's record change by more than 7 total wins, meaning that their average opponent increased or decreased their win total by 0.5 wins or more. There are plenty of reasons for a team's projected strength of schedule changes from preseason to actual season, many of them having to do with the improvement/decline of their own team and the improvement/decline of their opponents. When it comes to the decline of an opponent, a team obviously cannot control that - just take advantage of it.
Out of these 10 teams, six of them resulted in easier schedules (with the Patriots, Saints, Texans and Packers making it to the playoffs) - some may blame their weakened divisions for that, others may say the divisions became weaker BECAUSE of these teams. The four teams who had their schedule toughened by 10+ games from 2010 to 2011 (Cleveland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay & Minnesota) were among the league's worst teams in the league, so they may have contributed to their own tough schedule due to their suckiness. - If we use 2011 final Strength of Schedule and compare it to the 2012 version entering the year...here are some teams that could be looking at drastic changes in wins/losses:
Buffalo Bills go from a 133-123 schedule to a 121-135 schedule. If it plays out as such, I could see them getting up to 8 wins.
Baltimore goes from 122-134 to 134-122. Could mean a two-game decrease in wins if it plays out that way (10-6 record in 2012).
Indy goes from 138-118 to 128-128. Much of this is a product of going from playing first-place AFC teams in every division to last-place. A marginal improvement to 4-5 wins could be in order.
Dallas actually had one of the easiest schedules last year (119-137) and failed to take advantage of it, so their opponents which sport 129-127 in 2012 could actually make for a dip in wins for America's team.
Aside from Green Bay, everyone else in the NFC North (even Detroit) looks to make improvements if the 2012 schedule strength means anything. By no means are the Packers a lock to repeat as NFC North champions.
San Fran (13-3) and Arizona (8-8) will play tougher schedules, while the Rams, who had by far the most difficult schedule in 2011 (151-105 is 8 games harder than any other team in the league), should improve by at least a couple games.
Obviously, all of the above scenarios do not take health or other things into account. A team losing its starting QB (like Packers or Patriots) would throw everything completely off the rails. - You're probably wondering...how can Brian dismiss the strength of schedule, yet use an example above to see what teams could improve or decline next year? I don't think strength of schedule is a completely useless tool - it gives you an idea of how tough of opponents that you will have if the team plays similarly to the year before, which is often not the case. I do think some teams are consistent enough (consistently good and bad) from year to year, where looking at their record could prove to be useful in projecting expectations. But those teams that fluctuate 4+ wins year in/year out don't really help the SOS model all that much when predicting how your team will do next year.
Table of Strength of Schedule from end of 2010 for the 2011 season, how it changed as 2011 played out, and how much team improved/declined in win total. Strength of schedule for 2012 gathered from http://www.nflschedulesupersite.com/2012-nfl-strength-of-schedule/
| 2010 Win/Loss | 2011 Win/Loss | Difference | Net Team Wins | Playoffs? | 2012 Schedule | |
| AFC East | ||||||
| New England | 129-127 | 115-141 | -14 | -1 | yes | 116-140 |
| NY Jets | 133-123 | 128-128 | -5 | -3 | no | 126-130 |
| Miami | 130-126 | 129-127 | -1 | -1 | no | 127-129 |
| Buffalo | 137-119 (2) | 133-123 | -4 | 2 | no | 121-135 |
| AFC North | ||||||
| Balt | 117-139 | 122-134 | 5 | 0 | yes | 134-122 |
| Cincy | 121-135 | 126-130 | 5 | 5 | yes | 128-128 |
| Cleveland | 126-130 | 136-120 | 10 | -1 | no | 135-121 |
| Pitt | 121-135 | 126-130 | 5 | 0 | yes | 128-128 |
| AFC South | ||||||
| Tennessee | 125-131 | 121-135 | -4 | -3 | no | 123-133 |
| Indy | 133-123 | 138-118 | 5 | -8 | no | 128-128 |
| Jax | 132-124 | 128-128 | -4 | 3 | no | 128-128 |
| Houston | 132-124 | 116-140 | -16 | 4 | yes | 121-135 |
| AFC West | ||||||
| Denver | 133-123 | 133-123 | 0 | 4 | yes | 139-117 |
| San Diego | 133-123 | 132-124 | -1 | -1 | no | 133-123 |
| KC | 133-123 | 131-125 | -2 | -2 | no | 126-130 |
| Oakland | 126-130 | 129-127 | 3 | -1 | no | 127-129 |
| NFC East | ||||||
| Dallas | 129-127 | 119-137 | -10 | 2 | no | 129-127 |
| Washington | 121-135 | 122-134 | 1 | -1 | no | 125-131 |
| NY Giants | 126-130 | 133-123 | 7 | -1 | yes | 140-116 |
| Philly | 129-127 | 125-131 | -4 | -2 | no | 132-124 |
| NFC North | ||||||
| Green Bay | 130-126 | 116-140 | -14 | 5 | yes | 120-136 |
| Minnesota | 132-124 | 143-113 | 11 | -3 | no | 131-125 |
| Chicago | 128-128 | 135-121 | 7 | -3 | no | 126-130 |
| Detroit | 133-123 | 137-119 | 4 | 4 | yes | 126-130 |
| NFC West | ||||||
| San Fran | 119-137 | 114-142 | -5 | 7 | yes | 125-131 |
| Seattle | 125-131 | 131-125 | 6 | 0 | no | 129-127 |
| Arizona | 113-143 | 120-136 | 7 | 3 | no | 131-125 |
| St Louis | 122-134 | 151-105 | 29 | -5 | no | 134-122 |
| NFC South | ||||||
| New Orleans | 130-126 | 113-143 | -17 | 2 | yes | 129-127 |
| Atlanta | 126-130 | 123-133 | -3 | -3 | yes | 125-131 |
| Tampa Bay | 127-129 | 141-117 | 14 | -6 | no | 124-132 |
| Carolina | 142-114 (1) | 129-127 | -13 | 4 | no | 130-126 |
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