An Early Look at MLB & Teams Who I Have My Eye On

Here's a look at each team's odds to win their respective divisions, according to 5dimes.com. The teams I have bolded below are the teams I find to have the best value, not necessarily who I think will win the division.

Tampa - Ever since their surprise World Series appearance years ago, the Rays have been in the thick of the AL East race. Even when they trade away pieces that people think will end the Rays' run, Tampa keeps rolling. With all the years of sucktitude that they had, the Rays were able to stockpile a wealth of young talent, which allows them to make these moves. This is the toughest division in the majors to predict, especially now with all the talent that Toronto acquired, but out of all the teams, I think the Rays have the best value.

Kansas City - The Royals made some moves. Wait...the Royals...made....moves? A solid starting rotation that can eat innings (Ervin Santana, James Shields & Wade Davis join Jeremy Guthrie & Luke Hochevar). They have some guys who can rake (Butler's one of the most under-rated guys in the majors). It'll take a strong effort for any of these AL Central teams to take the division away from the Tigers, but if there is going to be a team who does it this year, I believe it'll be the Royals (not the White Sox).

Oakland - If you watched the way they ended the year last year, you'd be hard-pressed to tell me that they should be a 6/1 shot to win the division. This team improved every month of the year, with a miraculous comeback to take the division from the Texas Rangers on the last day of the season. Yoesnis Cespedes is a stud and should get better this year. And now with them having the Astros to whip around, there should be a good shot of Oakland getting in the 85-90 win range again.

St. Louis - Every year, the Cardinals are in the talk for the playoffs. Outside of the Yankees, the Cardinals are the team you associate with making the playoffs on a consistent basis and having a reasonable shot to win the World Series every year. I don't even need to know what offseason moves they made, because simply put, they always make the right moves. Letting Pujols go was the smart move. (an aside: Do you see how bad A-Rod looks at the end of his huge deal with the Yankees? That could very well be Phat Albert in about five years.) St. Louis isn't a huge underdog in this division, but they're doggish enough to have value. Wainwright is scheduled to start the year - Carpenter is scheduled to miss the entire year. That didn't seem to matter a couple years back when it was the reverse that happened as they won the World Series in dramatic fashion.

Philly - Last year's prohibitive favorite to dominate the NL East thanks to a stalwart pitching staff, the Phillies ended up underachieving to a level that only the Marlins and maybe the Red Sox could relate to. A pitching staff with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee can go far and do wonderful things together if they can stay healthy. With their increased age (Halladay will be turning 36 in May while Lee turns 35 in August), you can only hope they can pitch their elite-level 200+ innings. With Hamels in the mix, this will continue to be a devastating rotation. If they can get some production from some of their younger hitters (like Domonic Brown) and some of these older guys can find the fountain of youth or undetectable PEDs (I'm looking at you Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins & Chase Utley - a trio of guys who feel like have been with the team for 20 years together), they can easily contend again for the NL East crown.

Arizona - The Diamondbacks are a year removed from winning the division. While the Giants were busy winning their second World Series in three years and the Dodgers were spending money like Steinbrenners, the Diamondbacks made some rather curious moves, trading for Heath Bell (coming off a disastrous year) and trading Justin Upton in separate deals. However, like many of the other teams on this list, I like them for their pitching. Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill & Wade Miley are all capable of 200+ quality innings. Solid pitching can keep a team in contention till the very end, and I think Arizona is very capable of winning this division.


I'll be writing a blog in the next couple weeks with official predictions. I figured I'd get out of my lack-of-writing blues that seem to hit after the Super Bowl every year.

Happy Spring Training, y'all!

MLB   American League East Mon 4/1  1:05PM
New York Yankees	+175
Toronto Blue Jays	+185
Tampa Bay Rays	+340
Boston Red Sox	+600
Baltimore Orioles	+750

MLB   American League Central Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Detroit Tigers	-290
Chicago White Sox	+645
Kansas City Royals	+700
Cleveland Indians	+1000
Minnesota Twins	+2200

MLB   American League West Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Los Angeles Angels	-150
Texas Rangers	+190
Oakland Athletics	+600
Seattle Mariners	+1450
Houston Astros	+6000

MLB   National League East Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Washington Nationals	+110
Atlanta Braves	+225
Philadelphia Phillies	+250
New York Mets	+1700
Miami Marlins	+3300

MLB   National League Central Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Cincinnati Reds	-130
St. Louis Cardinals	+210
Milwaukee Brewers	+580
Pittsburgh Pirates	+1050
Chicago Cubs	+1800

MLB   National League West Mon 4/1  1:05PM
Los Angeles Dodgers	-110
San Francisco Giants	+230
Arizona Diamondbacks	+400
San Diego Padres	+1900
Colorado Rockies	+2500

Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term

Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term

Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.

However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.

Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.

Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.

It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.

Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.

Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.

For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.

A-Rod's Stats:

Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.

It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.

That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.

To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.

Salute Your Schwartz: Weekly Blobs and Blurbs

Salute Your Schwartz, Harbaugh.

It's a shame that the Niners/Lions physical battle (with the Niners coming on top 25-19) is lost in the shadows thanks to a 15-20 second episode between the coaches where Harbaugh and Schwartz (mainly the latter) had to be separated from fighting each other. This game featured two of the most surprising teams in the NFL, and all that's being talked about after the great matchup is a bunch of fluff. Just another episode of the media and public caring too much about something that has absolutely no significance to the outcome of the game nor the outcome of future games.

Speaking of the Niners, they are looking 100 times better than I ever thought they would this year. People asked me back in January on my thoughts of the hire of Jim Harbaugh. I saw his success at Stanford and his destination before and knew he transformed teams who aren't known for their football successes into winners, but I figured it would take at least a year or two to transform the Niners. It goes to show you what a coach brings to the table. I think NFL, more than any other pro sport, is dependent on having a good coach to win. I don't think MLB managers affect all that much compared to them. I can't speak for NHL, but I think MJ could have won 50-55 games a year without a coach. Phil added about 10-15 wins a year. I could be totally wrong on this, but I think the NFL coach is the most important coach in pro sports.

MLB prediction was half right - I had the Rangers/Brewers in my 4th installment of the World Series predictions. Naturally, it didn't come in. One trend that I found interesting, and one I look forward to seeing if it will continue, is the strength of offenses over pitching in the LCSes. In gambling terms, overs (meaning the total score of both teams) went 8-3-1 combined - meaning runs were a plenty. Granted, 2 of the Texas games didn't hit the over until 11th inning home runs by Nelson Cruz, but nevertheless. I'm not gonna make a prediction on the series, but I think the scoring will continue with these lineups.


This is the time of the year for some quarterback shuffling - Some are by performance (John Beck for Grossman, Tebow for Orton, Ponder for McNabb), while others are a product of injury (Carson Palmer, Matt Moore, Charlie Whitehurst, potentially AJ Feeley getting starts). Either way, I don't expect the trend to stop. As more teams fall out of the race, teams will see what some of these back-up QBs have to offer. Then again, I just named 7 quarterbacks, with at least 5 of these guys not playing for anything other than pride and the future. So maybe it is done. Either way, I just covered my ass on both ends.


NBA on the verge of cancelling more games and I'm still not caring. Like I said last week, I think I won't start caring until February when there's no more sports to get into until baseball, and even that interest lies in Opening Day and then dies slowly into the summer months. As a bettor, I'll miss having a chance to bet some fat money lines, but it will probably be for the better.

Life's a Pitch: MLB Playoffs Thus Far and LCS Predictions

Everyone remember the commercial from the 90s in which Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are conversing about hitting home runs, with the infamous "Chicks dig the longball" quote? In case you don't, here it is for your viewing pleasure:

Needless to say, home runs have been a fascination with fans since the days of Babe Ruth blasting more home runs than entire teams would in a year.

Sure, I like a good home run every now and then. But if you give me what we saw in the 3 winner-take-all games so far in the postseason, I'll trade that for a high scoring game anytime.

Between the Game 5s played in New York, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, there were a total of 11 runs scored between the 6 teams. Here are the totals of the starting pitchers of those games (including Ivan Nova, who was pulled after 2 innings due to an injury):

12 IPs, 11 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 10Ks (Ariz/Mil)
17 IPs, 9 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10Ks (StL/Phil)
7 IPs, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 7Ks (NYY/Det)

That's a combined 36 IPs, with 28 hits and 7 walks allowed (WHIP under 1.00), with 7 ERs surrendered (ERA under 2.00) and 27 strikeouts. An average of 6 innings pitched (higher if not for Nova), 1 walk, 5 hits and 1 run allowed, with 5 Ks in those outings for the six pitchers.

Stuff your 12-9 Mile High games in a sack mister - I'll take my 3-2 and 1-0 games all day, especially on the game's highest stage.

LCS Predictions

As everyone who watches baseball knows, it is one of the hardest sports to predict. That's why when I bet baseball, I usually just stick with total run bets. I don't see these LCSes any easier to predict.

I think the Tigers are going to need to win both of Verlander's starts to win this series. I think they'll end up splitting his starts and the Rangers win in 6. The Rangers have a little more depth with pitching and bullpen, especially now that they are using Ogando out of the pen. I think their lineups are both devastating, but as the playoffs have shown, good pitching will usually beat good hitting.

The Cardinals have made a tremendous September push to get to where they are now. However, with Carpenter, who pitched a shutout last night to get the Cardinals to the NLCS, likely only getting one start in the first 5-6 games of the series, I like the pitching that the Brewers can throw out there more. I like the Brewers to win in 6 games as well. With both of these teams knowing each other well (played 18 games in the regular season, splitting them evenly), I expect a very competitive series with the victor scoring less than 4 runs in several of the games.

Since my predictions have been way off so far this year, you Cards and Tigers fans can thank me for your World Series berths in the next 10 days.