Football Twitter Guide - from A thru Z

Since I'm at that point where I can't get enough of football items, I figured I would go through all the people I follow on Twitter and offer some names of folks whose tweets I will be looking forward to reading throughout the season by group. I will amend/add names to this as the season goes. Please provide your own folks for these subjects. Also, if I forgot your name, don't be afraid to tell me and I'll use my discretion on recommending you!

Fantasy Sports:

@CDCarter13 - Just started following him, but based on the few days I have, will be a valuable resource for those looking for fantasy football thoughts/advice. His affiliation with XNSports (formerly SportsJerks) is enough for me to recommend him.

@LordReebs - Originally started conversing w/ Rich last year through our 49ers affiliation, but soon grew to learn of his fantasy football knowledge. Writes for XNSports (formerly SportsJerks), which has a much different take on fantasy football than your average fantasy sports site.

Investors (Most of these people I've followed thru at least one NFL season - at the very least thru one or two betting seasons):

@andrewssports - Offers a bookmaker's perspective, which is something I enjoy hearing. Will occasionally tweet out some of his picks.

@behindthebets - If you are looking for a good capper who uses his powers for good (accessing most of his picks @BTBPicks requires proof of donation to charity), you'd be hard-pressed to get a better one.

@beatingthebook - His weekly podcast (released on Fridays) is worth the follow alone. While his actual picks are on a site which requires paid membership, Gill usually has some good guests on the NFL podcast which get you thinking about different aspects of NFL betting.

@bettingtalk_ - While I'm not sure how their new site will be, their old site/handle (Beyond The Bets) was a great window into the Vegas community - information galore. This recommendation is based on reputation of old site.

@Big_East - Not sure how his tweets will be now that he has joined forces with a site that requires paid membership for picks, but anyone who has followed his history knows that Big_East is the real deal.

@DavidPurdum - Solid writer who covers Vegas/gambling biz. Provides useful information that can help with your wagers.

@ESPN_Colin - One of the strongest public advocates for sports wagering. His Blazing Five picks were "Off The Charts" hot last year. You may find his radio show annoying, but don't take his takes on Vegas lightly.

@FlopFlippity - Doesn't tweet as much as he should, but does offer occasional picks. Unofficial member of #BolekMadness

@HeHaithMe - One of the few guys recently who has gone the way of paid services for picks. He was absolute money on MAC games last year.

@hustledouble - well-rounded capper who has a writing itch that needs to be scratched like yours truly. Offers good insight on his picks. Becoming one of my more frequent daily conversationalists on Twitter.

@JoeFortenbaugh - A writer for the National Football Post, provides solid capping and fantasy football thoughts. A frequent contributor to the @beatingthebook podcast.

@kalind_totals - the master of the totals (NFL/NCAA). Kalind & I will occasionally appear this season on @SportsMula, an up-and-coming sports site for sports fans.

@KegsNEggs - Head college writer for Bleacher Report. He always has a few bets going on any given Saturday.

@lindetrain - Another guy in Vegas who tweets a lot about the industry. I don't recall him tweeting much about his picks, but does provide good gambling info.

@NotTheFakeBruce - Just started following him, but based on who recommended him to me, I can put my recommendation on him. Look for Bruce and myself to provide some NFL picks on @SportsMula.

@notthefakeSVP - Along w/ Cowherd, the voice of the gambler for ESPN. Frequently discusses gambling angles through Twitter as well as his nationally syndicated show.

@ScottinVAN - Frequent tweeter who often posts about his gambling goings-on. Wears his wager on his sleeve as his bets are going on (not a bad thing).

@SheaInIrving - Known best for his calls into the DP Show, provides just as much entertainment with his tweets about gambling and sports.

@SportsInsights - While maximizing their site would require payment (which I haven't done), you should still get a lot out of following the occasional posting that they offer. Big proponents of reverse line movement.

@Stuckey2 - While many don't like him for his occasional brashness, Stuckey is a solid, steady capper. Almost always want to be on the same side of him when it comes to Baltimore Ravens games (p.s. he likes Denver in Week 1 & Baltimore Under 8.5 wins)

@ToddFuhrman - Vegas insider who knows his stuff. He provides solid gambling advice and thoughts on ToddsTake.com.

@tomf_18 - While he doesn't post picks, Tom does make me laugh my ass off with some of his takes on certain aspects of betting and life. The person who I've gone on the most Vegas trips with.

@twolf2123 - While he doesn't tweet all that often, I recommend him if and when he does tweet. Very good personal friend of mine.

@WagerMinds - My favorite WagerMinds tweets are ones where he tells people to "Tear Up Your Ticket". For the first time last year, one of those alerts ended up causing bettors to paste together their picks. Has a good site for those who want to dip their feet into gambling waters w/o actually gambling.

Just Football:

@AndrewPerloff - Dan Patrick's go-to guy for NFL matters and occasional writer for SI. Weekly segment on DP Show (usually on Fridays) of Against the Grain is almost always entertaining (especially when it involves props) and occasionally informative.

@Ben_Jones88 - Been following him since the Sandusky trial. Reports on Penn State matters. Provides different takes on matters; will be a future sports voice, whether it be in college sports or otherwise.

@BerserkHippo - A personal friend of mine. College football is his sport - a lot of tweets on Big Ten teams, especially his favorite team Michigan. Also, check out his podcast on his site of the same name, where he and co-host @LionEsquire will occasionally discuss football matters.

@Brad_Zoe - He changes his handle every now and then (this is what it is for right now). Loves tweeting up his thoughts on sports - definitely some interesting takes on certain things. Probably the most sporadic tweeter I know, so be ready for some tweets on other subjects that a male in their young 20s will tweet (you've been warned).

@HubbuchNYP - Has the NY/NE angle of sports covered. Never afraid to be critical, at the expense of people calling him a homer of (insert rival team here).

@JasonLaCanfora - Provides solid NFL news for CBS Sports.

@JayGlazer - If there's a scoop, Jay knows about it. Also handles Twitter trolls as well as anyone I know.

@LionEsquire - Another personal friend of mine. He doesn't tweet often, and pending marriage stuff will likely inhibit this further. You can catch his football thoughts on Berserk Hippo's podcast from time-to-time.

@LostLetterman - Frequent posts/news on college football matters.

@MikeFreemanNFL - Just moved from CBS Sports to Bleacher Report. I enjoy his posts/takes on NFL matters, and like Glazer, enjoy his handling of trolls.

@PFF - For the more sophisticated, analytical football fan. PFF grades every position on a +/- scale and are relied upon by just about every respected football expert.

@RichEisen - master of the NFL Network. Also has a highly-acclaimed podcast with high profile guests.

@SI_DougFarrar - Writes about NFL-related items for Sports Illustrated, with a long history of writing about the same subject for Yahoo. My favorite tweets of his involve hypocrisy of NCAA.

@SportsMula - A site I just started contributing to recently. The site has strong aspirations to give a different take on sports with writers who are looking to make a name for themselves.

Niner Nation (Grouping us all together - since it is a Nation, after all)

@AdrianPorterfi2

@GafflezMalone

@JedYork

@Kokopelli_49ers

@LordReebs

@TheDopeyOne

@Woods49ers

MLB 4-15 thru 4-21

For last week's bets and weekly totals, see here:

http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2013/04/mlb-betting-4813-thru-41413.html

Hopefully turn this around this week.

YTD (thru 4/16/13): 34-42, -333.80
WTD: 5-5, 129.60


4/15/13 (2-3, -10.40)
Bos/TB - TB +133 first 5 innings (40/53.20) - ended in bottom 5th, HR by Boston.
Bos/TB - TB +126 game (70/88.20) - 9th inning tease by TB. Ended w/ Napoli walk-off double.
Chi/Tor - Over 5 first 5 innings (60/66) - big first inning sparks victory.
Chi +103 (70/72.10) - Floyd  didn't recover from first inning as well as Buehrle did.
SD/LA - SD +148 (70/103.60) - Stults helps his own cause (3 run jack). Padres pull away late.

4/16/13 (3-2, 140)
NYM/Col G1 - Col -135 (Nicasio vs. Gee) (81/60) -
Phil/Cin - Cin -1 -108 (Bailey vs. Kendrick (75.60/70) - Suspended (bet voided)
KC/Atl - KC +164 (Guthrie vs. Medlen (60/98.40) - Atlanta uses the long ball in the 8th to break 2-2 tie.
Chi/Tor - Chi +137 (Axelrod vs. Johnson) (70/95.90) - Nice grind-it-out victory for the South Siders
SD/LA - SD +171 (Marquis vs. Capuano) (70/119.70) - Surprisingly a no-sweat. SD is money again as a big dog at LA.
Hou/Oak Over 7.5 (75.60/70) - Looked good after 5, but both teams struggled to score much against 'pens.


4/17/13 (  ,  )
KC/Atl Under 8 (76.80/60) -
Hou/Oak - Hou +166 (Norris vs. Colon) - (60/99.60)
Chi/Tor - Tor -127 (Quintana vs. Happ) (72.20/60)
TB/Balt Over 8 (72.10/70) - 

MLB Betting 4/8/13 thru 4/14/13

Last week's bets: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2013/03/b-bos-mlb-bets-futures-daily-bets.html

YTD: 29-37, -463.45 (Updated 4/15/13)

WTD: 13-17, -175.25

4/8 (1-4, -248.80)
Bos/Balt (Bucholtz/Chen) Over 9 - 66/60 - L - Never had a chance.
Garcia (StL) -111 vs. Cincy - 88.80/80 - L - Bad 2nd half of game for StL, even worse 9th inning (9 runs allowed)
NYM/Phil (Harvey/Halladay) Over 7.5 - 67.60/60 - Halladay is losing it. Sad
Hou +135 1st 5 innings - 70/94.50 - Dumb bet
Hou/Sea Over 7.5 - 84/80 - Dumb bet


4/9 (4-2, 185.25)
Det/Tor (Sanchez/Morrow) Under 8 - 70/70 - Morrow allowed too many hits. After mid-game tease, Detroit finished it off in 8th inning
Lee (Phil) -173 vs. NYM - 86.50/50 - Lee cruises to victory. Phils bats helped the cause
Richard (SD) +120 vs. LAD - 80/96 - Never trailed. SD opens up game in 8th.
Parker (Oak) +135 at LAA - 75/101.25 - After blowing 4-0 lead, big 5-run 7th seals it.
McDonald (Pitt) +130 at Ariz - 60/78 (first 5) - Pitt's big 4th inning seals the bet.
Colorado + 114 - 70/79.80 - Rockies couldn't muster any offense after a big 2nd. 

4/10 (2-2,  54.20)
Cin/StL (Bailey/Westbrook) Under 8.5 - 65/66.30 - StL explosion in innings 5-7 ruin a great start toward the under
Moore (TB) +124 at Tex - 80/99.20 - Nice shutout Tampa.
Floyd (CWS) +151 at Wash 50/83.05 - Brief lead, but never had a chance.
Bos/Balt (Dempster/Arrieta) Over 9 - 74.90/70 - Looked like a loss, but Baltimore puked and rallied. Must remember that these good fortunes usually balance out the bad beats.


4/11 (0-2, -150.50 )
Axelrod (CWS) +144 at Wash - 70/100.80 - Plenty of chances, but no dice

Cle/NYY (McAllister/Hughes) Under 8.5 - 80.50/70 - rained out
LA Angels Over 4 runs - 80.50/70 - Never threatened to win this bet.

4/12 (4-1, 312.5)
Cubs +128 (Villanueva) vs. SF - 65/83.20 - Cubs BP tried to blow a fantastic outing from Villanueva. Luckily, Romo was just as giving.
Pitt/Cin (Burnett/Leake) Under 7.5 - 67.20/60 - doomed from start. Went way over.
Hou +175 (first 5 innings) at LA Angels - 60/105 - Dominant performance by Bud Norris
Hou +185 (game) 50/92.50 - Never a sweat on this one. 5-0 win. Hard to beat that non-sweat with a +185
Iwakuma (Sea) +132 vs. Tex - 75/99 - Iwakuma an early season surprise. Hopefully catch value for another start or two w/ him.

4/13 (1-3, -143.40 )
Atl/Wash (Hudson/Strasburg) Under 7 (96/80) - 
Sale (CWS) -130 at Cle (78/60) - Sale got bombed today. 
Det/Oak (Verlander/Anderson) Under 7 (85.40/70) - Hard to bet unders on Tigers games. Need to make a note of this.
Cin/Tex parlay - (60/121.24)

4/14 (1-3, -164.50)
KC -103 (Santana) vs. Toronto - 103/100 - walk-off single wins it. Santana was solid.
Phil/Mia Over 8 (Halladay/Slowey) - 84/80 - finished way under. Halladay finally pitched decent.
LA/Ariz Over 9 (Beckett/Cahill) - 80.50/70 - again, way under. Both guys acted like they were Cy Young winners for a day. 1-0 final.
Balt/NYY Over 8.5 (Chen/Kuroda) - 100/112) - third time's not a charm. Way under. Again. Might need to lay off the totals for a bit.

B-Bo's MLB Bets (Futures & Daily Bets)

Daily Bets (4-1 thru 4-7) - (16-20, -288.20)

4/1 (1-3, -$122)
NY/Bos Lester/Sabathia Under 8 (57/50) L - 9th inning Boston runs
Chi/KC Sale/Shields Under 7 (48/40) W - 1-0 Sale win
Phil/Atl Hamels (Philly) -110 (55/50) L - trailed throughout
Ariz/StL Kennedy/Wainwright Over 9 (50/50) L - narrow loss

4/2 (0-2, -137.30)
Balt/TB Hammel/Price Under 7 (61.50/50) L - McGee melts in 7th inning
Tor/Cle Dickey/Masterson Over 8.5 (75.80/65) L - no bullpen runs allowed


4/3 (3-2, 50.00 )
Tex/Hou Ogando/Humber Under 8.5 (69/60) - Astros shut out. Look to bet unders of teams coming off near perfect game/no hit bids
Chi/KC Peavy/Santana Over 7.5 (60/63) - Sox can't score w/o HR; too many runners left in scoring position in late innings
Det/Min Sanchez/Correia Over 8.5 (60/60.60) - Never had a chance
Wandy (Pitt) -133 (79.80/60) - Well-pitched game. Wandy a Cub killer
LA/SF Beckett/Lincecum Over 7 (61/50) - Strong offense vs starters. No more runs after that (5-3)

4/4 (5-1, 282.90 )
ChC/Pitt Wood (ChC) +130 (50/65)
ChC/Pitt Under 7 (40/40) - Wood pitched well; Marmol did what he could to blow it. Avoid Cubs games for most part!
KC/ChW Guthrie (KC) +114 (65/72.10) - Guthrie was sharp. Sox no HRs = Sox loss
SD/NYM Stults (SD) +136 (50/68) - Lots of LOBs, but SD never trailed. Held on in 9th.
Mia/Wash LeBlanc (Mia) +200 (40/80) - worth a shot. Mia got spanked.
Phil/Atl Lee (Phil) +113 (60/67.80) - might be the last time Lee gets + anything for a while. A gem.

4/5 (4-3, 96)
SD/Col Marquis (SD) +140 (60/84) - Not enough offense; 3rd inning error is the difference (3 unearned)
KC/Phil Davis (KC) +107 (60/64.20) - KC 13 unanswered runs after falling behind 4-0 early
Min/Balt Hendrix/Arrieta Under 9 (54/50) - Pretty much DOA in the mid-innings despite a pair of scoreless innings to start. Davis stays red hot to open the lead up for the Orioles.
Bos/Tor Doubront (Bos) +135 (60/81) - Never trailed. Decent bullpen work.
Mia/NYM Sanabia (Mia) +139 (60/83.40) - Bounced back nicely after getting swept. Almost blew 6-0 lead.
Mil/Ari Lohse (Mil) -131 (78.60/60) - 2 runs allowed on a wild pitch the difference. Crazy.
Sea/CHW Beaven/Quintana Over 8 (66/60) - Quintana implodes. League has caught up to him. Fade away.

4-6 (1-4, -215.30 )
Sea/Chi King Felix (Sea) -129 (90.30/70) - Windy day. King Felix threw one mistake and Rios made him pay.
Bos/Tor Lackey/Happ Under 9 - (60/61.80) - Great outing for Happ. Lackey got hurt, might be out for year. 
LAA/Texas Harrison (Tex) -124 (62/50) - Harrison roughed up in 1st. Bet never had a chance. 
SF/StL - Vogelsong/Miller Under 7 - (63/60) - Big 5th for StL is basically the difference. 

SD/Col  - Ross (SD)+129 - (60/77.40) - Garland pitched well in first start in two years. SD couldn't take advantage of bases loaded, no out in 4th.

4-7 (2-5, -242.20 )
ChW/Sea (Sale/Iwakuma) Under 7.5 - (69/60) - After rough first, both settled down, 4-3 in extras
Bos/Tor Lester +125 (60/75) - Total Red Sox domination. Least sweat bet so far this year
Wash/Cin Under 7 (Strasburg/Cueto) (72/60) - Both roughed up early. Teased a push, but lost in 6th.
TB/Cle Under 7 (Price/Masterson) (75/60) - Price got rocked. No shot.
StL/SF Under 6.5 (Wainright/Cain) (64.20/60) - 9 run fourth for StL - no shot.
Col/SD Over 10.5 (Chacin/Volquez) (66/60) - No help from SD. Col helped in late innings to no avail.
LAA  (Weaver) +129 vs Texas (Darvish) (100/129) - top half of first showed promise. After that, it was all Texas.

How's Your Bracket & Other March Madness Musings

How does your bracket look?

Honestly, I stopped looking at mine with the string of upsets on Thursday, particularly New Mexico (one of my Final Four). But with that loss, I decided that this March (and future Marches) would not be considered a success or failure based on my brackets. Instead, my focus will be strictly on my gambling account.

Does this look like a successful bracket to you?

I don't think this bracket is going to win me anything. Too many red lines too early in the tourney.

But you know what? As long as the bets I make are coming in, I don't care if this whole sheet is full of red lines.

I have had some bad bets (Montana was my worst bet of the year, possibly a top-5 all-time worst bet) - note that I don't always bet with my bracket (but usually do). For instance, one of my best bets ever came on Friday, betting on Florida Gulf Coast against Georgetown (the first half line of +7.5, game line of +13.5 & the best part, the money line of +800 - the biggest money line I've ever hit for a single game).

Are We the Champions?

The big bets still alive exist in the East bracket, where I have two teams still alive for my prop bet to win the tourney. Illinois did what they could to blow their huge lead, but ultimately held on to win. They face Miami on Sunday. I'm not really sure what to expect from them, but I'm hoping that they or California (preferably both) can pull off upsets in their Round of 32 matchups - Cali has Syracuse Saturday night.

A California title would net me $3750 on a $15 bet, while an Illinois championship would pay $4125. The odds of either team winning it are still remote, but it's still nice to see them stay alive. I hope one of them teases me with another win and a promotion to the Sweet 16.

Speaking of Illinois...

I've heard there's a lot of Illinois fans consumed with hatred of Bruce Weber, so much so that they seem to be enjoying the Kansas State loss more than their school's win. If you have any issues with Weber, you have issues yourself. I'm not sure what he did to get people to hate him so much. So what if he wasn't the best basketball coach? It's not like the guy murdered anyone - no reason to root so hard against a guy that led your school to its only title appearance in 2005.

If you're an Illini fan reading this and you're angry with Weber about his stint with Illinois....get over it. It's over and done with. Embrace the current and future Illinois teams. Enjoy watching these teams coached by a fantastic young coach (John Groce was a great hire) who has proven himself as a solid recruiter. Don't waste your energy on a part of our school's past that frankly wasn't all that bad.

Speaking of bad...

Did any of you attempt to watch most/all of the March Madness action? If so, I apologize. My eyes and brain hurt greatly from the poor quality of games so far this tourney. Forgive me if you disagree, but the quality of play from most teams was evident. I'm sure you can cite a plethora of reasons for this: (1) playing outside of normal game conditions, (2) lack of overall talent due to underclassmen going to the NBA, (3) pacing of games is choppy with all the TV timeouts, coaching timeouts and fouls, etc.

For me, especially this year, it's been almost impossible for me to watch games without having a reason to watch it (i.e. gambling). And for many of you, you'd probably not be watching these games if you didn't have bets on it or a bracket to follow. Gambling and brackets drive the March Madness, not the quality of play. We get so blinded by how great college basketball supposedly is by the 63 items to fill on those brackets that we don't even realize how poorly played these games are. Sloppy fouls, horrible turnovers, ridiculous shots that require viewers to consume shots. If you can enjoy these games without a bracket and without bets, then all the more power to you - I can't.

Good luck with your bets/brackets the rest of the tourney. I hope the games are higher quality than we've seen so far.

Prop-aring for the Super Bowl & The Madness of Super Bowl Betting

Here are a few questions to ponder:

1. How long will Alicia Keys take to finish the national anthem?
2. Will she add or forget any words when she is singing it?
3. Will Jay-Z appear on stage with Beyonce at some point during her halftime performance?
4. Will Beyonce's hair be curled, waved or crimped?

And while you're pondering them, you can also gamble on them. Yes - online sportsbooks offer gamblers a chance to win (or likely lose) a ton of money on the craziest stuff you can think of.

Now of course, there's close to a thousand props for people who use 5dimes.com to bet on (921 to be exact), ranging from the non-football bets above to bets such as a team's exact margin of victory and a lot in between.

Some of the larger odds:

• If you think there will be a score within the first 30 seconds of the game, you can throw a few dollars on that at 50/1 odds.
• If you think both QB's first passes will be interceptions, you can bet that at 400/1 odds (i.e. $10 nets you $4,000)
• If you think the score will be tied at the half and at the end of the fourth quarter, you get those odds at 55/1.
• If you believe the first score (like in last year's Super Bowl) will be a safety, you're getting 100/1 odds.
• Betting on San Fran to win by exactly 41 points, you get 550/1 odds. Betting Baltimore to win by that same margin is a 2000/1 proposition. (Most exact margins of victory pay the most, but these are the highest).

Now, some of the ones I am considering:

1. Total missed FGs: Over 1 +275: Including the postseason, Justin Tucker missed only 3 of 35 field goals in his rookie year. However, the veteran on the other sideline has been awful. David Akers has missed 14 of 44 field goal attempts, including a miss in 10 of 18 games. He had 4 multi-miss FG games. I think this offers value, as you can get at least a push if there's only one miss.
2. LaMichael James: Over 5.5 carries/25.5 rushing yards: I've lumped these two together. I believe that the Niners' best chance to win will be on the ground. James is fresh, and with little game tape of the Oregon speedster, I believe Harbaugh (the Jim version) will have him featured more. With the Ravens having allowed 125+ rushing yards in 10 of 19 games, I believe there will be plenty of opportunities for Gore and James to get theirs.
3. Score in first 4 minutes (+270): San Fran has had a tendency in both postseason games to start slow, with an early pick-6 by Green Bay and a quick first drive by Atlanta in the NFC title game to open up the scoring. Don't be surprised (if Balt gets ball first) for Flacco to go deep to Torrey Smith to start the game.
4. Michael Crabtree MVP (+1800): I made the case for Crabtree in a previous blog. If San Fran wins thanks to Kaepernick, there's a decent chance he's been targeting Crabtree. As long as Crabtree grabs the majority of Kaep's yards & TDs, I think he has good value at 18/1, as long as Kaepernick doesn't run for 50+ yards as well.

101 Bets

In case you missed last year's feature, I interviewed a couple of friends on their annual tradition of betting on 101 separate props. This year was no exception to their betting adventures. The Man of Little Stature won the coin toss and made his first pick "The Football Travels Over 1499.5 yards", which has become his new favorite bet over "the pylon gets knocked down".

Here's a list of their bets for this year. This...is how professionals do it:

	LM	TS
1. Heads/tails:	Tails
2. Calling team picks:		Tails
3. Calling team wins/loses coin toss:	Loses
4. Coin toss winner chooses/defers:		Chooses
5. Football travels ov/un 1499.5 yards (Net offensive yards + return yards + punt yards + penalty yards + successful FG yards):	Over
6. NFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:		Run
7. AFC first play from scrimmage, pass/run:	Pass
8. First score, TD/FG:		FG
9. First team to score:		SF
10. First turn-over, fumble/interception:	Int
11. Which team commits the first turnover:		Balt
12. Which team commits more turnovers:	Balt
13. First team to take a timeout:		SF
14. First team to challenge play:		SF
15. Total number of red flag reviews in game, over/under 1.5:		Under
16. First quarter points, over/under 9.5:	Over
17. Total points second quarter, over/under 14:		Under
18. Total points third quarter, over/under 10:	Over
19. Total points forth quarter, over/under 13.5:		Over
20. Total points for game, over/under 47.5:		Under
21. All timeouts used in the first half:	No
22. All timeouts used in second half:		No
23. First penalty committed by which team:	Balt
24. Length of first penalty, over/under 9.5 yards:		Under
25. Most penalties, NFC/AFC:		Balt
26. Most penalty yards, NFC/AFC:	Balt
27. More QB rushing yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
28. Most team passing yards:		Balt
29. Most team rushing yards:		SF
30. Most team passing TDs:		Balt
31. Most team rushing TDs:		SF
32. AFC/NFC starting RB, more rushing yards:	SF
33. More starting RB TDs, AFC/NFC:	SF
34. More FG/TD in game:	TD
35. Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game:	Yes
36. Will there be a score in the last 2:00 of the half:	No
37. Will there be a score in the last 3:30 of the game:		Yes
38. Will there be a safety in the game:		No
39. Will there be an OT:	No
40. Will there be a successful 2 point conversion:		No
41. Last team to score:	SF
42. Last team to score win/lose:		Win
43. Anyone ejected from game:		No
44. From kick off to end of final play, over/under 3h 45m 00s:	Under
45. First/second half, most points scored:		2H
46. Which team will record more sacks:		SF
47. Will there be 3 unanswered scores:	No
48. Most tackles by team leader, AFC/NFC:		SF
49. Longest play of the game from scrimmage, over/under 35.5 yards:	Over
50. Which team will score the longest TD:	SF
51. Will there be a defensive TD:		No
52. Will there be a special teams TD:		No
53. Which team will kick the longest FG:		Balt
54. Will there be a successful onsides kick:	No
55.Will game be tied after 0-0:		Yes
56. Longest scoring drive of the game, over/under 6m 30s (game clock):	Over
57. Winner of Super Bowl:	SF
58. Penalties resulting in first down, ov/un 1.5:		Over
59. Highest passer rating starting QB AFC/NFC:		Balt
60. AFC QB throw TD/Int first:		TD
61. NFC QB throw TD/Int first:		TD
62. Will starting NFC RB fumble:	No
63. Will starting AFC RB fumble:		No
64. Which team will recover more fumbles (not only turnovers):	SF
65. Which team will intercept more balls:	SF
66. NFC QB first pass complete?	Yes
67. AFC QB first pass complete?	Yes
68. More special teams yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
69. More offensive yards, NFC/AFC:	SF
70. After red flag review, more reversals/call stands:		Stands
71. Longest pass completion of game, NFC/AFC:	SF
72. Longest rush of game, NFC/AFC:		SF
73. Longest kick off return, NFC/AFC:	SF
74. Longest punt return, NFC/AFC:		Balt
75. Which team punts from deepest spot:	Balt
76. Which team kicks for more points:		Balt
77. Longer punt average, NFC/AFC:		Balt
78. Number of drives that start inside own 15 yard line, ov/un 1.5:	Under
79. Which is greater, AFC/NFC RB receiving yards:	Balt
80. 4th down conversions, over/under 1.5:	Under
81. Longest FG, over/under 44.5 yards:		Over
82. Will there be a FG attempt over 50 yards:		No
83. Will there be a missed FG:		No
84. Last score, FG/TD:	TD
85. Will there be a red zone turnover:	No
86. Who places more punts inside the 20:	SF
87. Will a Super Bowl pylon be seen knocked over during the game:	Yes
88. Will there be a roughing the passer penalty:	No
89. Will there be a blocked FG:	No
90. Will there be a blocked punt:		No
91. Will a non-QB attempt a pass:		No
92. Will a timeout be called to ice a kicker:	No
93. More receptions by team leader, AFC/NFC:		Balt
94. More receiving yards by team leader, AFC/NFC:	SF
95. Longest scoring drive, over/under 75 yards:		Under
96. Shortest scoring drive, over/under 35 yards:	Under
97. Is a double digit lead ever established:		No
98. Who spends more clock time in the lead:	SF
99. Who has more time of possession:		SF
100. More points, kickers vs. NFC QBs:		SF
101. More points, kickers vs. AFC QBs:	Kickers

Hot (and Then Not) & Week 17 Picks

The playoffs are a week away, which makes me simultaneously excited for the playoffs and disappointed that we are soon only 11 NFL games away from the end of the season.

In the past several weeks, we've heard a lot about some of the streaking teams in the NFL and how they may be the best teams in the NFL. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Week 17 and will likely make it 11 barring an act of God when they face Kansas City. With a win, they guarantee themselves a bye week and possibly a #1 seed if Houston manages to lose.

In the NFC, Washington, Green Bay & Seattle hold the longest win streaks of teams on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has has one of the best statistical three-week runs in the NFL this year en route to its 4-game win streak entering its finale against St. Louis. The Seahawks have won by an AVERAGE of 50-10 in their last three games. Granted, only one of those games was against a legit opponent (San Fran), but there has to be some credit given. I expect Seattle to win in Week 17 and enter the playoffs with a 5-game streak to end the year. Washington enters Week 17 on a 6-game tear and will make the playoffs if they make it seven by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Green Bay can ensure a bye by beating the Vikings.

All of this talk about "hot teams" entering the playoffs got me thinking: what's the trend of teams entering the playoffs (specifically, the teams that make the Super Bowl)? Is there a trend for teams to end the year on a long streak to make/win the Super Bowl?

I looked back at the past ten years to see how playoff teams from each conference fared at the end of the regular season to see if these long streaks carried over into January. Outside of one exception, the team who entered the playoffs on the longest winning streak has not won the Super Bowl (New England in 2003 is the only team in the past decade to have the longest win streak and win the title).

Here are some fun facts from my findings of the past 10 years:

• Out of the 10 teams with the longest streak entering the playoffs, only three of those teams (NE '03, '07 & '11) even made the Super Bowl. There's been six teams who had at least a half-season winning streak (8+ wins) who didn't make the Super Bowl, including New Orleans last year.
• Out of the 20 conference champions, only 5 (25%) had the longest win-streak among their playoff conference counterparts. That means most teams who made it to the big game weren't the hottest team entering the playoffs.
• Super Bowl winners of the past 10 years have had the following streaks to end their years: won 12 (once), won 4 (once), won 2 (three times), won 1 (three times), lost 1 (once), lost 3 (once). While it doesn't necessarily pay to have a long win-streak to end the year, it seems as though something can be made of winning in the last week.
• Not related to the win streak thing, but it should be noted that out of the past seven Super Bowls, all but one of them has had a team who played in the Wild Card round - meaning that bye weeks don't seem to matter as much lately. Let's keep that in mind, Niners fans, should the Packers hold onto their 2nd seed. The only Super Bowl in this span containing teams that had byes was Indy vs. NO.

	AFC Champ	NFC Champ	Longest Win Streak entering playoffs (each conference)
2002	Oakland (W2)	Tampa (W1)	Ten -5; NYG - 4
2003	NE (W12)	Car (W3)	NE - 12; GB - 4
2004	NE (W2)	Phil (L2)	Pitt - 14; Sea/StL/GB - 2
2005	Pitt (W4)	Sea (L1)	Wash - 5; Pitt/Den - 4
2006	Ind (W1)	Chi (L1)	SD - 10; Phil - 5
2007	NE (W16)	NYG (L1)	NE - 16; Wash - 4
2008	Pitt (W1)	Ariz (W1)	Ind - 9; Atl - 3
2009	Ind (L2)	NO (L3)	SD - 11; Dal - 3
2010	Pitt (W2)	GB (W2)	NE - 8; GB - 2
2011	NE (W8)	NYG (W2)	NE - 8; NO - 8
2012	?	?	Den - 10; Wash 6/GB & Sea 4 (entering Week 17)

So what does this data tell us? I believe it's easy for us to go with what we've seen most recently and make a blanket judgment on what will happen in the playoffs, but recent history shows that teams riding long winning streaks have little-to-no-advantage entering the playoffs. And it's important to keep in mind that many of these teams with the longer streaks (Pitt, both SDs, NE in '10) lost home games in the playoffs.

Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.

Week 17 Picks

I honestly don't like much that's on the menu. 

For some reason, I'm believing in Dallas (+3.5) beating Washington this week. I'm also rooting on my Dallas 75/1 bet to win the Super Bowl to have some life entering January.

The other games that have an effect on the playoffs (GB -3.5 at Min, Chi -3 at Det), I have no read on.

KC +16 at Denver seems tempting - I don't think Denver is going to run up the score. Miami +10 seems like a good bet too - Belichick will likely bench starters at a certain point of their Week 17 game when they realize that they will not get a first-round bye. I don't think he cares if they fall to the fourth seed (in that spot, they'd face Indy, who they romped earlier this year) if they lost.

Tune in next week as I go to Vegas for my 30th birthday and make some bets while I'm there. I'll look to preview the NFL playoffs tomorrow night. I'm willing to bet one team from the Wild Card round will make the Super Bowl - just a matter of who.

Week 16 & Big Props to Calvin Johnson

So much for Madden jinxes....

Congrats to Calvin Johnson on breaking my favorite wide receiver's receiving yards in a season - surprised Jerry Rice's record hasn't been broken with how pass-friendly the league has gotten. The only suspense left with him is whether he will get 2,000 yards (needs 108 yards), which with how he has been playing (and how little Detroit has to play for), doesn't seem all that suspenseful. I see him blowing by this record and getting up to about 2,050 yards, setting a record that he (and he alone) will have fun trying to chase for the next 5-10 years.

Also a big congrats to Adrian Peterson, who is within sniffing range of the rushing record thanks to his 212 yard performance in Week 15. He needs 294 yards in his last two games (against Houston & Green Bay) to top Eric Dickerson's 2105 yards, a record set almost 30 years ago. I'd love to see him get it - as far as watching RBs go, Peterson is probably my favorite one to watch (except when he's facing the Niners).

Anywho, onto Week 16 Picks:

Jax +14.5, Phil +6.5, Dal -2.5, SF +1.5

Considering: Ten +12.5, Min +7.5, Cin/Pitt Under 41.5

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

Week 15 NFL & Y2K update for AP & Megatron

To those that enjoy my writings (sports, gambling, life), I apologize for not writing as much lately. I'll try starting up more in 2013.

An update from last week's blog

Countdown to Y2K - 3 games left:

Adrian Peterson

Season: 1600 yards, 265 carries (6.0 yards/carry), 10 TDs
Last week: 31 carries, 154 yards

Needs: 400 yards in 3 games (133.3/game)

Opponents: at St. Louis (allows /game), at Houston ( /game), vs. Green Bay ( /game)

Will he get 2K yards? Yes, 2022

Calvin Johnson

Season: 96 catches, 1546 yards (16.1/catch), 5 TDs

Last Week: 10 catches, 118 yards

Needs: 454 yards in 3 games (151.3/game)

Opponents: at Arizona (allows 197 passing yards/game), vs. Atlanta (234/game), vs Chicago (205/game)

Will he get 2K yards? No, just short, 1944

Onward to Week 15...

Bets for Sunday:

Atl -1.5 - Falcons not getting the respect they should at home. The Giants' road reputation is part of this line. Atlanta was sleepwalking through the Carolina game and got the wake-up call they needed before the playoffs.

Balt +3 - I know Peyton has been leading the Broncos to their highest levels since Elway, but a letdown is inevitable. Flacco plays well at home. Without Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator, I expect the Ravens to unleash Ray Rice to his full potential.

Ariz +6.5 - Arizona got waxed last week. Detroit lost their fifth straight, but not as bad as the Cardinals did. This play is pure motivation - Arizona has the only motivation in this game (eager to bounce back from such a shellacking). Meanwhile, the Lions were expected to contend for the playoffs and are long past that goal. It's easy to get up for a road night game against the Packers - I doubt their focus will be as sharp (as if their focus has been sharp to begin with) as Arizona's.

Buf +4.5 - Seattle's best game was last week - they could do nothing wrong. However, they are not the same team on the road. Even though this is technically not Buffalo's stadium (more of a neutral site game), the NFL and I consider it a Seattle road game. A letdown is coming, especially with a big matchup against the Niners coming up next week.

Considering...Houston -10, KC +3, SF +4.5/5

Yards 2K: Megatron & All-Day Approaching Two Grand Yards - Plus Week 14 NFL

If you pay close attention to the total yards of certain players, odds are you probably have them as a starter in your fantasy league.

I, however, own neither Calvin Johnson nor Adrian Peterson in any of my leagues, although I did try to make a trade for AP in my keeper league. I didn't get the owner to pull the trigger on the deal (thanks a lot Craig), but that hasn't stopped me from paying attention to what he has been doing following his torn ACL & MCL almost 12 months ago.

An injury that usually takes a season or two to shake some rust & rehab, Peterson is having the best season of his career (234 carries, 1446 yards, 8 touchdowns). His average of 6.2 yards per carry is higher than his quarterback Christian Ponder's average yards per attempt (6.0), which is amazing. If he is to average this pace the rest of the year (120.5 yards/game), we're looking at 1928 yards - so to say he could get 2,000 yards isn't out of the question.

In regards to Calvin Johnson, his stats have been just as gaudy. Megatron has 86 catches for 1428 yards (119 yards/game) and 5 touchdowns. Funny - a lot of annoying fantasy owners were complaining that he was having a bad season about five or six weeks back. If Calvin continues his pace, he will set an NFL-record at 1904 yards (Jerry Rice got 1848 yards in 1995). Again, he has a good chance of 2000 this year, especially with how bad the Lions' season is going and this will likely be the only thing they'll have to play for. (The same can be said for Adrian if the Vikings continue to fade out).

The question is - if both guys reach the mark, whose 2K season would be more impressive? A case can be made for both - Adrian having a career year after suffering his terrible CL injuries and running this well despite teams being able to key in on him since the Vikings have an average QB.

However, if you make me choose between the two, I'd go with Megatron's season. Anytime you break an NFL record, I think that has to be considered a tiebreaker that decides all tiebreakers. Either way though, all those numbers will result in no playoff appearances - unless of course you're owning these guys in fantasy football. In that case, good luck this week.

I say Peterson runs for 130 yards and a TD and Calvin goes for 125 and a TD against the Packers.

Other Week 14 Predictions

Min +3 vs. Chicago - Minnesota got crushed by the Bears a few weeks back, but I'm really high on them this week. I think the Bears have peaked this year - they've lost 3 of 4 (all to likely playoff teams) ever since their miraculous defensive TD onslaught dried out. I think you'll see a heavy dose of Peterson, about 30 carries - 24-17 Vikings - they don't need Harvin here.

NE -3.5 vs. Houston - This is as balanced as NE has been in a while - great passing game as always, solid running game and an opportunistic defense this year (24 turnovers forced, best in the league). I think Houston will lose some of their edge given their 11-1 record, and they haven't played as good lately as their record would indicate. I'll take New England here 30-17.

Other Potential Bets:

Ten +5.5, Buf -3, Dal +3


Good luck this week in your fantasy playoffs and good luck to your teams this week.

NFL Week 13

Lucky number 13.

Week 13 is about the time where the season starts winding down. Some teams have their eye on a bye, others are battling for a chance at the playoffs, and others are, well, Kansas City, Philadelphia & Jacksonville.

Also, if you're lucky, you're competing for a spot in a fantasy football playoff in one of your eight leagues. Lots to look forward to this week in that regard.

I'll approach this week a little differently - going with games I won't touch, games I am considering & games I will bet.

MC Hammer Games (Can't Touch Them)

Dal -10.5 vs. Phil (may bet the total, can't bet the side)
Cle -1.5 at Oak
NYJ -4.5 vs. Ariz (lean Ariz but too hard to gauge this one)
Buf -6 vs. Jax (Jax best efforts have come on the road, still can't bet this though)
Cin -1.5 at SD
Car -3 at KC
SF -7 at StL
Pitt -8 vs. Balt
Hou -6.5 at Ten
Cle -1.5 at Oak

Christian Pondering 

Min +8 at GB (I think Min keeps this within a score)
Sea +3.5 at Chi (Gonna be a defensive battle - in these case I usually like the points)
Mia +7.5 vs. NE (likely to pass on this, but this one seems deceiving)

Locking In
Den -7 vs TB (seems like a lot, but TB can't defend the pass)
Det -5 vs. Ind (fool's gold game of the week - I expect Detroit to win by double digits)


Good luck in your picks, fantasy teams and real teams. Have a great start to your Decembers.

NFL Week 12

As many of you have already read many times, I went to a Bears game for the second week in a row. Like the week before, I witnessed a pathetic Bears offense and eventual loss - combined losses to Houston & San Francisco by a 42-10 margin.

I promise to all Bears fans that I will not attend any more of their games this year, as I have witnessed 67% of their losses. Do I think they'll bounce back this week? Yes I do. Will I bet it? No I won't. Should I keep asking myself questions and then answering them? I think I should stop.

With only 12 games on Sunday and a dud of a game on Monday, there's not much on the slate that catches my eye. I'll likely be able to catch some/all of the Saints/49ers game, which I believe is the clear afternoon game of the day (Packers at Giants at night is the clear game of the day).

Thoughts on each game:

Oakland +8 at Cincy: Oakland fits the system here - blowout losses against the spread in their last three games & Cincy w/ blowout wins against the spread in their last two. Likely bet on Oakland, even though I picked Cincy in a couple of survivor pools.

Pitt -1.5 at Cle: I like Cleveland here. One of those 2-8 records that really doesn't tell the story on how competitive they've been this year. Probably won't bet it, but it'll likely be Cleveland or nothing here.

Buf +3 at Indy: This is the Fool's Gold Play of the week. Everyone loves Indy here, but they have no defense and I believe Buffalo will be able to move the ball well on the ground against them (Indy allows 4.7 yards/carry - 4th worst - while Spiller leads the league w/ 6.6 yards/carry). Indy is not as good as their 6-4 shows. Buffalo will be a bet

Denver -10.5 at KC: For me here, it's either KC +10.5 or no play. Divisional rivalry game - you can usually throw records out the window. KC sprung an upset last year against GB in a similar spot of the year - be careful backing Denver here.

Ten -4 at Jax: MC Hammer Game of the Week. As in, I can't touch this one on either end. No way can I lay points with Tennessee on the road, but no way I can bet on Jacksonville (again) at home, where they've lost each game by double digits.

Atl -1 at TB: Should be the best of the Noon time games. A Tampa win here could put them in good position for a playoff push for the rest of the year. No leans here.

Sea -3 at Mia: Mia fits the system of a team who hasn't covered in three straight. Likely to take them here. I don't think Seattle has earned the right to be road favorites yet.

Balt (pick'em) at SD: I already bet SD here. Great spot for them (or at least great spot to fade Baltimore). Ravens are in the middle of a Pittsburgh sandwich on their schedule and in the middle is a game thousands of miles away. Big let down spot here.

SF -1 at NO: My only worry here is Kaepernick having a rough go in his first road start in what may be the noisiest stadium in the league, but overall, I believe San Fran should be able to move the ball consistently and slow down NO enough to take this one. May bet San Fran. System play here in effect with NO winning three straight against the spread (which means fade them).

StL +1 at Ariz: Another MC Hammer Game. Arizona hasn't won since starting 4-0. I think they win here, but I sure as hell won't bet on it.

GB +2.5 at NYG: With public perception on the Giants being as low as its been this year since their opener against the Cowboys, this should be a good time to back them, especially after a bye week.

Car -2.5 at Phil: Another ugly game. Can't believe Carolina is a road favorite here, but find it hard to trust Philly. At all. No bet.



Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. Have a good weekend.

NFL Week 11

NFL season is halfway over - I know many women who lost their boyfriends/husbands to the season as they always do.

I don't remember a year recently where the playoff picture was more clear this early in the season, at least in the AFC.

Take a look at the standings and you'll see a large gap with teams. Every current playoff team in the AFC (if the playoffs started today) has 6 or more wins, while every non-playoff team has 4 or less. Can one of these 4-5 teams come up and take a playoff berth away from one of these current 6+ win teams? Yeah - I don't think the Colts are as good as their 6-3 record shows. And if Big Ben misses a long period of time with the Steelers, they may struggle to get to 9/10 wins, especially with how much they've relied on the pass (not what you'd expect from the Steelers (I do like their chances this week though). My best shot of an AFC team to rise from 4-5 to make a run: Cincy.

NFC is a little more balanced, with eight teams above .500. If Cutler misses significant time, the Bears could be a team in free fall. Their offense hasn't really been stellar since their Week 5 win at Jacksonville - remember that the game against Tennessee where they dropped 51 was more special teams/defense than anything. They have broken the 300+ yard mark in less than half their games this year. Granted, their defense has been amazing, but it's really hard to rely on pick-6s and special team returns when you start facing the best teams in the league. I think Green Bay is going to take the NFC Central. I say the Bears hold onto the Wild Card.

Oh yeah, did I mention I'm going to a game this weekend? A prime-time one in fact. Bears/Niners end what promises to be an exciting Week 11, which I will be spending in the beautiful city of San Francisco w/ my beautiful girlfriend.

Only problem is that the game has lost some of its luster thanks to (1) both starting QBs potentially missing the game due to concussions suffered in Week 10, (2) Bears offense laying a stinker and losing 10-3 against Houston, (3) 49ers tying against the Rams, which feels like a loss in my opinion. The Bears' loss isn't a huge surprise (although I didn't think they'd look that sloppy - the weather didn't help), but the 49ers not beating the Rams was.

I'm looking for the Bears to lose a lower scoring game - 17-10 seems to fit. Only way Bears win against an elite defense like this is if they can score a TD or two on defense/special teams. Otherwise, I think Campbell is in for a long night against Willis, Bowman and the rest of the Niners wrecking crew.

Picks for Week 11:

NE -9 vs Indy - already booked. Indy is Fool's Gold. Not as good as their record. Patriots will roll.

Cle +7.5 at Dallas - already booked. Seems like an over-inflation based on Dallas winning last week. I expect a close game, maybe even a Cleveland win. Very scrappy team. Also, Dallas is too inconsistent to spot them this many points.

SD +7.5 at Denver - Division rivalry match-up - always hard to take this many points in a game like this. I expect San Diego's best effort here, with a 30-40% shot of an upset.

Pitt +3.5 vs. Balt - This line shifted almost a full touchdown w/ Big Ben's injury. I think giving Leftwich a full week of practice will allow the Steelers to not only stay competitive vs. their division rival, but also score the victory.



Good luck to everyone