Since the Cleveland Browns rejoined the league in 2002 and the NFL went to 4 divisions in each conference, there has been an average of just over 6 new teams in the playoffs from year-to-year (which represents a 50% change from one postseason to the next).
Last year featured the smallest change from one year to the next in the 32-team era (there were only four new teams in the playoffs compared to 2011), including the exact same division winners and only one change in the AFC (the Colts taking the Steelers spot).
So out of these 20 teams who didn't make the playoffs last year, who are the mostly likely (in my eyes) to be playing into January?
No Chance (6): Jacksonville, Oakland, Tennessee, Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets
Sleepers (8): Cleveland, Kansas City, San Diego, Miami, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Decent Shot (2): Detroit, Dallas
Best Chance (4): Chicago, Pittsburgh, NY Giants, New Orleans
With how wide open the AFC seems this year, with Baltimore's leadership core depleted and New England losing its top 5 receivers by yardage from 2012, it looks as though that will be the conference that has the best chance to see some new blood in the playoffs (I could see a few of the AFC sleepers I mentioned in the playoffs). Even though I have Pittsburgh out of my playoff bracket for 2013, I mention them as Best Chance mainly off of their recent history to bounce back from a non-playoff season.
So if there's six new teams in the playoffs this year, who are the most likely teams that will be on the outside of the January side of football?
My best guesses:
- Baltimore (will miss leadership on defense as well as some of their key offensive weapons - Pitta/Boldin helped make Flacco a rich man and will both be missed)
- Indy (they were the first 11-5 team ever to make the playoffs while allowing more points than they scored - regression to 6 or 7 wins is my projection).
- Washington (with how competitive the NFC East is and the RG3 health questions entering 2013, I don't see them successfully defending their division crown)
- Minnesota (Christian Ponder is going to miss Percy Harvin (and Greg Jennings is going to miss Aaron Rodgers), and I don't see how AP can carry this team to a playoff run like he did last year. Plus, like the NFC East, the NFC Central is strong top-to-bottom)
- Atlanta (this is more of a hunch than based in concrete data. Atlanta destroyed the division last year, but I think New Orleans w/ Sean Payton, Carolina w/ their stud Cam, and Tampa's big moves, like acquiring Revis Island, will likely lead to a few more losses for the Falcons this year)
- Green Bay (this certainly isn't a reflection of their QB, but more their offensive line, which could get Rodgers killed this year, and their defense, which got shredded in their playoff loss to the 49ers)
New England could get added to this list if Brady isn't able to establish good connections with his new receivers. I also wouldn't be shocked if there was some drop off with Seattle, who seem to be a trendy Super Bowl pick.
Fun Division Facts
There's a few nuggets that I'd like to share in my research and breakdown of the division winners in the 32-team NFL era (2002-current):
- New England and Indianapolis are the only teams to win five straight division titles in this era, each accomplishing their respective feats from 2003-2007. Seattle (2004-2007) and SD (2006-2009) are the only other teams to have a run of four straight division titles.
- The NFC South, which is among four divisions during this time to see all four of its teams win at least one division crown, has yet to have a reigning division title team repeat the next year. This does not bode well for Atlanta.
- In addition to the above fact, the NFC South is the most represented division to make the big game, with a total of three different teams making a Super Bowl (2002 TB, 2003 Carolina, 2009 New Orleans). NFC West also has this distinction (Seattle in 2005, Arizona in 2008, San Fran in 2012).
- Of the 10 teams who have won a Super Bowl between 2003 and 2012, only three of these teams did not make the playoffs the previous year (NE in 2003, NO in 2009, and NYG in 2011)
- Of the 10 Super Bowl losers during this same time, only Carolina (2003), Arizona (2008) and Pittsburgh (2010) failed to make the playoffs the year before.
- Of the 10 Super Bowl winners between 2002 and 2011, three missed the playoffs the following year (Tampa in 2003, Pittsburgh in 2006, NYG in 2012). I am projecting that Baltimore becomes the fourth.
- Of the 10 Super Bowl losers between 2002 and 2011, half of them missed the playoffs the following year (Oakland in 2003, Carolina in 2004, Philly in 2005, Chicago in 2007, New England in 2008).
- 23 of the 32 franchises have made the playoffs at least once in the past four postseasons. The casualties? Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis.
- Of these 23, 17 teams (or over half the league) has won at least one playoff game. Baltimore is the only team that has won at least one playoff game in each of the past four years.
