NFL season is halfway over - I know many women who lost their boyfriends/husbands to the season as they always do.
I don't remember a year recently where the playoff picture was more clear this early in the season, at least in the AFC.
Take a look at the standings and you'll see a large gap with teams. Every current playoff team in the AFC (if the playoffs started today) has 6 or more wins, while every non-playoff team has 4 or less. Can one of these 4-5 teams come up and take a playoff berth away from one of these current 6+ win teams? Yeah - I don't think the Colts are as good as their 6-3 record shows. And if Big Ben misses a long period of time with the Steelers, they may struggle to get to 9/10 wins, especially with how much they've relied on the pass (not what you'd expect from the Steelers (I do like their chances this week though). My best shot of an AFC team to rise from 4-5 to make a run: Cincy.
NFC is a little more balanced, with eight teams above .500. If Cutler misses significant time, the Bears could be a team in free fall. Their offense hasn't really been stellar since their Week 5 win at Jacksonville - remember that the game against Tennessee where they dropped 51 was more special teams/defense than anything. They have broken the 300+ yard mark in less than half their games this year. Granted, their defense has been amazing, but it's really hard to rely on pick-6s and special team returns when you start facing the best teams in the league. I think Green Bay is going to take the NFC Central. I say the Bears hold onto the Wild Card.
Oh yeah, did I mention I'm going to a game this weekend? A prime-time one in fact. Bears/Niners end what promises to be an exciting Week 11, which I will be spending in the beautiful city of San Francisco w/ my beautiful girlfriend.
Only problem is that the game has lost some of its luster thanks to (1) both starting QBs potentially missing the game due to concussions suffered in Week 10, (2) Bears offense laying a stinker and losing 10-3 against Houston, (3) 49ers tying against the Rams, which feels like a loss in my opinion. The Bears' loss isn't a huge surprise (although I didn't think they'd look that sloppy - the weather didn't help), but the 49ers not beating the Rams was.
I'm looking for the Bears to lose a lower scoring game - 17-10 seems to fit. Only way Bears win against an elite defense like this is if they can score a TD or two on defense/special teams. Otherwise, I think Campbell is in for a long night against Willis, Bowman and the rest of the Niners wrecking crew.
Picks for Week 11:
NE -9 vs Indy - already booked. Indy is Fool's Gold. Not as good as their record. Patriots will roll.
Cle +7.5 at Dallas - already booked. Seems like an over-inflation based on Dallas winning last week. I expect a close game, maybe even a Cleveland win. Very scrappy team. Also, Dallas is too inconsistent to spot them this many points.
SD +7.5 at Denver - Division rivalry match-up - always hard to take this many points in a game like this. I expect San Diego's best effort here, with a 30-40% shot of an upset.
Pitt +3.5 vs. Balt - This line shifted almost a full touchdown w/ Big Ben's injury. I think giving Leftwich a full week of practice will allow the Steelers to not only stay competitive vs. their division rival, but also score the victory.
Good luck to everyone
Showing posts with label green bay packers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label green bay packers. Show all posts
11/16/2012
10/19/2012
Even Mike Vick Wouldn't Fight These 'Dogs - Week 7 Picks
If you're a gambler and like most people I know who gamble, you usually like to bet favorites at a high rate. If you're doing that this year, you're doing yourself wrong. Way wrong.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
9/28/2012
Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5
Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.
There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.
Anywho....
I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.
I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.
After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.
It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.
It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.
Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.
It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.
I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.
I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.
In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.
Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.
Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.
It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).
Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.
The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.
The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.
Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.
Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.
Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.
Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".
Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.
The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.
The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.
Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.
Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.
Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.
Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".
There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.
Anywho....
As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen - but I won't be backing these myself.
NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11
NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).
Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5
Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.
Have a good weekend.
1/16/2012
The Game of My Life
Oh when the Saints....go marching out.....
In the same endzone Terrell Owens caught The Catch II about 13 years ago, Vernon Davis secured an Alex Smith touchdown pass with 9 seconds left that brought Candlestick Park off its hinges in Saturday's 36-32 win over the Saints. Coupled with the Packers loss yesterday, the Niners get a chance to create another playoff miracle at home.
The Niners' last three playoff games at home have produced Instant Classics:
Niners 36, Saints 32 (1/14/2012) - Any football fan who watched this one got treated to the game of the week (possibly the year). Despite Drew Brees' 400 million passing yards, our own QB (which I was reluctant to call him to start the year to say the least) created his own page in 49ers playoff miracles. I'm not quite sure how I can ever go to a better game than this in my lifetime - and this is not hyperbole talking.
Here's the best catch I've ever seen made in my life. I will get teary-eyed watching on highlight shows for the next decades to come: Vernon Davis catch
Oh when the Saints go marching out...
Niners 39, Giants 38 (1/5/2003) - I remember watching this game in the basement with some of my friends. When the score reached 38-14 in the third quarter, I was having my doubts. But a spirited comeback led by Jeff Garcia (331 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) helped give the Niners one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history (next to the Frank Reich/Buffalo Bills comeback). The game ended with a botched field goal snap leading to a duck of a pass that seemed to be airborne for several minutes. I panicked seeing a flag down by the area where a Giants player was pushed down, but the penalty was called on the Giants.
The next week, we lost to the eventual SB champion Buccaneers.
Niners 30, Packers 27 (1/3/1999) - This is when The Catch II happened, but we got lucky on that last drive when a Jerry Rice catch wasn't ruled a fumble on the field. Still, the game, like the two mentioned above, featured a 4th quarter comeback. Out of the three, it also featured the best QB matchup in Favre vs. Young.
Like Saturday's game, it had the opponent score a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. Also eerily similar (as mentioned before) was the spot of the field that the Niners played hauled in the winning score, with similar jarring hits that the receivers (1999 - TO, 2012 - Vernon Davis) absorbed while holding onto the ball. The comeback against the Giants featured a touchdown with a minute left as well - I don't know how we keep getting in these close home playoff games spread apart, but we do. While the Saints game, we didn't need to score a TD with less than 10 seconds left, in these other games we did.
Here's TO's catch...another chill-inducer: TO catch
Oh how would I love to be in that stadium, when the Saints go marching out!
Internal debate resides within me on whether I will go to this next game. If I do go, I'm likely staring at buying a solo ticket since most of my friends cannot afford this expenditure, the g/f is going to Puerto Rico this week, and I doubt my friend Matt will want to go again. I'd also be looking for a way to make this a Sunday morning flight, cab it right to stadium and then possibly come back the same night.
Realistically, I'll be watching it with loyal B-Bo Knows readers Chris Williams and Nick Pazoles. I'm giving myself a Tuesday night deadline on buying these tickets. I need a break from San Fran to assess it rationally and financially.
Now finally....time to get some sleep. A work week awaits me. I'm sure I'll have a Niners preview cooked up later in the week.
Where ever I watch Sunday's game against the Giants, I will wear my Niner heart on my sleeve, rooting on my team that keeps adding to its playoff lore and hopefully has a few more victories left in the tank.
In the same endzone Terrell Owens caught The Catch II about 13 years ago, Vernon Davis secured an Alex Smith touchdown pass with 9 seconds left that brought Candlestick Park off its hinges in Saturday's 36-32 win over the Saints. Coupled with the Packers loss yesterday, the Niners get a chance to create another playoff miracle at home.
The Niners' last three playoff games at home have produced Instant Classics:
Niners 36, Saints 32 (1/14/2012) - Any football fan who watched this one got treated to the game of the week (possibly the year). Despite Drew Brees' 400 million passing yards, our own QB (which I was reluctant to call him to start the year to say the least) created his own page in 49ers playoff miracles. I'm not quite sure how I can ever go to a better game than this in my lifetime - and this is not hyperbole talking.
Here's the best catch I've ever seen made in my life. I will get teary-eyed watching on highlight shows for the next decades to come: Vernon Davis catch
Oh when the Saints go marching out...
Niners 39, Giants 38 (1/5/2003) - I remember watching this game in the basement with some of my friends. When the score reached 38-14 in the third quarter, I was having my doubts. But a spirited comeback led by Jeff Garcia (331 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) helped give the Niners one of the biggest comebacks in NFL playoff history (next to the Frank Reich/Buffalo Bills comeback). The game ended with a botched field goal snap leading to a duck of a pass that seemed to be airborne for several minutes. I panicked seeing a flag down by the area where a Giants player was pushed down, but the penalty was called on the Giants.
The next week, we lost to the eventual SB champion Buccaneers.
Niners 30, Packers 27 (1/3/1999) - This is when The Catch II happened, but we got lucky on that last drive when a Jerry Rice catch wasn't ruled a fumble on the field. Still, the game, like the two mentioned above, featured a 4th quarter comeback. Out of the three, it also featured the best QB matchup in Favre vs. Young.
Like Saturday's game, it had the opponent score a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. Also eerily similar (as mentioned before) was the spot of the field that the Niners played hauled in the winning score, with similar jarring hits that the receivers (1999 - TO, 2012 - Vernon Davis) absorbed while holding onto the ball. The comeback against the Giants featured a touchdown with a minute left as well - I don't know how we keep getting in these close home playoff games spread apart, but we do. While the Saints game, we didn't need to score a TD with less than 10 seconds left, in these other games we did.
Here's TO's catch...another chill-inducer: TO catch
Oh how would I love to be in that stadium, when the Saints go marching out!
Internal debate resides within me on whether I will go to this next game. If I do go, I'm likely staring at buying a solo ticket since most of my friends cannot afford this expenditure, the g/f is going to Puerto Rico this week, and I doubt my friend Matt will want to go again. I'd also be looking for a way to make this a Sunday morning flight, cab it right to stadium and then possibly come back the same night.
Realistically, I'll be watching it with loyal B-Bo Knows readers Chris Williams and Nick Pazoles. I'm giving myself a Tuesday night deadline on buying these tickets. I need a break from San Fran to assess it rationally and financially.
Now finally....time to get some sleep. A work week awaits me. I'm sure I'll have a Niners preview cooked up later in the week.
Where ever I watch Sunday's game against the Giants, I will wear my Niner heart on my sleeve, rooting on my team that keeps adding to its playoff lore and hopefully has a few more victories left in the tank.
1/06/2012
Obligatory 2012 Playoff Predictions & Look Back
As an occasional blogger of sporting items, I'm required by law to give my Super Bowl predictions.
Before I do that, I'm looking back on my pre-season predictions, which I picked Green Bay over San Diego (half of that prediction makes me hurl - and no Bears fans, it's not the GB part). At least my NFC Championship of GB vs NO looks reasonable.
Not counting the 3 teams that I said would get the exact win total set forth by Vegas, I went 15-14 in predicting over/unders of win totals (based on win projections in early August). My best division was the AFC East, as I correctly projected the division order & 2 of the teams' win totals on the dot (NE & Buf). Worst division, convienently enough, was the NFC West, in which I would have been on the wrong side of all 4 totals.
I predicted 4 of the 8 division winners: GB, NO, Hou & NE.
Whiffed bad on some of the others: Phil, StL, Pitt (not so bad), SD
I got 8 of the 12 playoff participants right, going wrong on guessing Phil, StL, SD & NYJ.
Overall, I give myself a B- on predictions. Usually, I don't get that many playoff teams right, and my Super Bowl winner is still alive.
On to the 2012 Predictions (Redux)
I already gave my first-round predictions:
Pitt over Den (Pitt covers -8), NO over Det (Det covers +11), Hou over Cin (Hou covers -4), NYG over Atl (NYG covers -3)
From there, that'd lead to the following matchups (and predicted point spread) in Divisional Round:
Pitt +5 at NE - I give NE the win and cover - Pitt may be too banged up to survive this year beyond Denver.
Hou +8.5 at Balt - Baltimore smells blood here. They grab the 2 score win and cover.
NO -3.5 at SF - I don't want to get my hopes up and say SF wins, I say they cover but don't win. NO by 3.
NYG +9.5 at GB - Things never go exactly like they should in the divisional round - I say NYG pulls out the upset straight up at Lambeau, a la 2008. NYG's pass rush will give Rodgers fits.
Conference championship
NYG +9.5 at NO - NO would loooooove to have another home game after this weekend, and if my predictions come true, they'll get another. Brees has hit the ground running in the last half of the year since the Rams loss, winning their last 8 games by a 35-18 margin, averaging 490 yards/game while allowing 390/game in that span (a whopping 100 yards per game. In this streak includes a late Novermber beatdown of NYG. I think NYG's luck will end here - NO goes to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 years and wins by 14.
Balt +3 at NE - As everyone who watches football this year knows, NE has a defense that would make the Swiss military look tough. I think Baltimore will be able to expose this weakness: Rice goes off for a 200 yards combined day, and their defense will do enough to thwart NE's pass offense. Still feels weird backing Balt (Flacco) over NE (Brady), but here we are. Welcome to 2012!
Super Bowl
Balt (+4) vs NO - Classic matchup between strong offense vs elite defense (moreso than Balt/NE - I consider NO more well-rounded and talented) in the final game. The initial edge has to go to the Saints, seeing as though the game is in a dome and they have been playing games like they're collecting medals at a track meet. However, on the game's biggest stage, I say defense wins out and we see John Harbaugh hoisting the Lombardi, with constant obligatory viewings of his bitter brother Jim watching from a press box.
Your 2012 Super Bowl Champions: the Baltimore Ravens!
Feel free to offer your own predictions. I'll probably whiff on many of these (per usual), and I hope I do. I'd love SF to win to collect on my $50 Super Bowl bet from a few weeks ago (to win $750), oh yeah, and cuz I'm a fan of them....(yeah, that reason as well).
Enjoy the playoffs everyone.
Before I do that, I'm looking back on my pre-season predictions, which I picked Green Bay over San Diego (half of that prediction makes me hurl - and no Bears fans, it's not the GB part). At least my NFC Championship of GB vs NO looks reasonable.
Not counting the 3 teams that I said would get the exact win total set forth by Vegas, I went 15-14 in predicting over/unders of win totals (based on win projections in early August). My best division was the AFC East, as I correctly projected the division order & 2 of the teams' win totals on the dot (NE & Buf). Worst division, convienently enough, was the NFC West, in which I would have been on the wrong side of all 4 totals.
I predicted 4 of the 8 division winners: GB, NO, Hou & NE.
Whiffed bad on some of the others: Phil, StL, Pitt (not so bad), SD
I got 8 of the 12 playoff participants right, going wrong on guessing Phil, StL, SD & NYJ.
Overall, I give myself a B- on predictions. Usually, I don't get that many playoff teams right, and my Super Bowl winner is still alive.
On to the 2012 Predictions (Redux)
I already gave my first-round predictions:
Pitt over Den (Pitt covers -8), NO over Det (Det covers +11), Hou over Cin (Hou covers -4), NYG over Atl (NYG covers -3)
From there, that'd lead to the following matchups (and predicted point spread) in Divisional Round:
Pitt +5 at NE - I give NE the win and cover - Pitt may be too banged up to survive this year beyond Denver.
Hou +8.5 at Balt - Baltimore smells blood here. They grab the 2 score win and cover.
NO -3.5 at SF - I don't want to get my hopes up and say SF wins, I say they cover but don't win. NO by 3.
NYG +9.5 at GB - Things never go exactly like they should in the divisional round - I say NYG pulls out the upset straight up at Lambeau, a la 2008. NYG's pass rush will give Rodgers fits.
Conference championship
NYG +9.5 at NO - NO would loooooove to have another home game after this weekend, and if my predictions come true, they'll get another. Brees has hit the ground running in the last half of the year since the Rams loss, winning their last 8 games by a 35-18 margin, averaging 490 yards/game while allowing 390/game in that span (a whopping 100 yards per game. In this streak includes a late Novermber beatdown of NYG. I think NYG's luck will end here - NO goes to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 years and wins by 14.
Balt +3 at NE - As everyone who watches football this year knows, NE has a defense that would make the Swiss military look tough. I think Baltimore will be able to expose this weakness: Rice goes off for a 200 yards combined day, and their defense will do enough to thwart NE's pass offense. Still feels weird backing Balt (Flacco) over NE (Brady), but here we are. Welcome to 2012!
Super Bowl
Balt (+4) vs NO - Classic matchup between strong offense vs elite defense (moreso than Balt/NE - I consider NO more well-rounded and talented) in the final game. The initial edge has to go to the Saints, seeing as though the game is in a dome and they have been playing games like they're collecting medals at a track meet. However, on the game's biggest stage, I say defense wins out and we see John Harbaugh hoisting the Lombardi, with constant obligatory viewings of his bitter brother Jim watching from a press box.
Your 2012 Super Bowl Champions: the Baltimore Ravens!
Feel free to offer your own predictions. I'll probably whiff on many of these (per usual), and I hope I do. I'd love SF to win to collect on my $50 Super Bowl bet from a few weeks ago (to win $750), oh yeah, and cuz I'm a fan of them....(yeah, that reason as well).
Enjoy the playoffs everyone.
12/22/2011
No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl
In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
10/06/2011
The Wrong Remains the Same
Naturally, my 3rd attempt at a World Series is wrong. The Rays were the first team eliminated from the MLB playoffs a few days ago, with either the Tigers or Yankees soon to join them. If the Tigers (my AL team in the WS in my 2nd prediction) lose, make that 3 for 3 on failed World Series predictions.
When you're gonna be wrong, make sure you're really, really wrong.
Robin & Bat Men - The Surprise Hire on the South Side
The White Sox shocked everyone by hiring one of their former players as manager. Robin Ventura comes back to the South Side not only new to managing, but also a cherry when it comes to coaching. The shock of hiring him should begin and end with that fact.
Reinsdorf is not a fan of spending money on managers (i.e. hiring managers with experience), so anyone who has seen his history should know that Terry Francona (who would have likely commanded double what they were going to pay Ozzie) was never really a serious option.
I wish Ventura well, but he's gonna need some help. Paging crazy Kenny Williams signing/trade.
King Wrong
Aside from my World Series predictions, other things I've been wrong on lately:
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5) - So far, the theme for the Fools Gold pick has been spotting a road team (always a favorite) that has caught the public's eye as "The Team to Bet" for the week. This week, a road favorite has caught my attention all the same for this column, but for the opposite reason.
Every Sunday night or Monday morning, I always look at the next week's schedule of games and set my own lines before looking on 5dimes to see what gamblers have set the line at. Over the years, I have gotten sharp at getting close to every game on the schedule to within a point of the spread that ends up being released. The games I am far apart on the bookmakers, I will usually assess what caused the difference in line.
My line on the Bills/Eagles game had Buffalo as a 2 point favorite, so needless to say, I was shocked when the Eagles were a -2.5 point favorite in my book. Never before has there been a 1-3 team favorites to a 3-1 team when the 3-1 team is hosting, so my shock was justified in seeing the line.
However, after thinking about the Eagles' losses and actively watching two of them from beginning to end, I'm reminded of how talented the Eagles are and how close they were to being 4-0 (Vick injuries in week 2 and 3 and turnovers/missed kicks in week 4). This isn't to say that the Bills are push-overs, but I don't think their defense will be sharp enough to handle the Eagles plethora of weapons. You could say the same thing about the Patriots game, but if you watch that game, several of the interceptions were not really caused by the Bills defense but rather the Patriots receivers themselves.
I think the Eagles get back on track en route to getting back to a playoff caliber level. Eagles win by 10. This week's pick (and already booked): Philadelphia -2.5
Last week's result: Cincy covered the +3 spread in a straight-up victory of Buffalo
YTD: Fools Gold is sporting a 4-0 record. I have bet on the last three games on 5dimes (2 spreads, 1 money line) and have profited $170.
Likely Week 5 Picks
Carolina +6.5/7 vs. New Orleans - Cam Newton has rejuvenated a Panthers offense that was completely anemic last year. So far, Carolina has went 3-0-1 against the spread (the only record gamblers care about), which shows me that Carolina is improving. I thought that the Bears' defense might cause him some problems last week, but was I wrong (the wrong theme continues). I think the Panthers will keep this close and may even pull off an upset. I'm hoping to catch this line at +7.
Atlanta +6/7 vs. Green Bay - I hope to get Atlanta at +7. Matt Ryan is money at home, so spotting him a touchdown sounds more insane than betting against the Packers at this point. Falcons are a different home team and will get some revenge for their embarrassing loss to the Packers in the playoffs in January
Detroit -5 vs. Chicago - Now that the Lions have the attention of the nation, it only makes sense that they make their first Monday Night appearance in eons this week. The Bears showed themselves to be solid against Matt Ryan in Week 1, but have been shredded up by Drew Brees (270 yards, 3 TDs), Aaron Rodgers (297 yards, 3 TDs) and Cam Newton (374 yards, 1 TD). I expect Stafford to continue what he's been doing with Calvin Johnson, who has destroyed all corners and safeties that have come his way.
Other bets I am considering: Indy -2.5; NYJ +9.5. No totals have caught my eye yet.
Gambling on NFL & NCAA so far:
As always, I recommend following my picks on twitter.com/brianbolek or @brianbolek
Enjoy this week's action. I haven't decided if I'm betting any NCAA yet. Last week I held off, in part to not liking much and in part to the Buddy thing.
Good luck to your fantasy teams, bets and most importantly, your REAL teams!
When you're gonna be wrong, make sure you're really, really wrong.
Robin & Bat Men - The Surprise Hire on the South Side
The White Sox shocked everyone by hiring one of their former players as manager. Robin Ventura comes back to the South Side not only new to managing, but also a cherry when it comes to coaching. The shock of hiring him should begin and end with that fact.
Reinsdorf is not a fan of spending money on managers (i.e. hiring managers with experience), so anyone who has seen his history should know that Terry Francona (who would have likely commanded double what they were going to pay Ozzie) was never really a serious option.
I wish Ventura well, but he's gonna need some help. Paging crazy Kenny Williams signing/trade.
King Wrong
Aside from my World Series predictions, other things I've been wrong on lately:
- Detroit Lions - While I don't think they will win the NFC North, the Lions have shown to me that they are in it to win it (love me some cliches). Megatron's catch in triple coverage last week in their comeback victory against the Cowboys just goes to show you how unguardable he is. Best receiver in the league.
- San Francisco 49ers - I know it's still early, but the Niners are the only team in the NFL w/ a 2 game lead on everyone in its division. They have one of the best defenses in the league so far statistically, but their offense is horsecrap. It did shows some signs of life against the Eagles. I never would have guessed that Alex Smith would have engineered two 4th quarter comebacks for the season, yet alone back-to-back road games. Maybe there is something to Jim Harbaugh and molding quarterbacks. He's the best coach that Alex Smith has had in his career.
- Fantasy football - specifically my money leagues. In my three money leagues, I am sporting a combined 2-10 record, with my only two wins in the league that I am the commissioner. In one of the leagues, injuries have exposed lack of depth; the other 0-4 league shows mild promise, but I doubt it is any more salvageable than the other winless league. Looks like my energy of winning $ this year will come solely from my gambling pursuits.
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+2.5) - So far, the theme for the Fools Gold pick has been spotting a road team (always a favorite) that has caught the public's eye as "The Team to Bet" for the week. This week, a road favorite has caught my attention all the same for this column, but for the opposite reason.
Every Sunday night or Monday morning, I always look at the next week's schedule of games and set my own lines before looking on 5dimes to see what gamblers have set the line at. Over the years, I have gotten sharp at getting close to every game on the schedule to within a point of the spread that ends up being released. The games I am far apart on the bookmakers, I will usually assess what caused the difference in line.
My line on the Bills/Eagles game had Buffalo as a 2 point favorite, so needless to say, I was shocked when the Eagles were a -2.5 point favorite in my book. Never before has there been a 1-3 team favorites to a 3-1 team when the 3-1 team is hosting, so my shock was justified in seeing the line.
However, after thinking about the Eagles' losses and actively watching two of them from beginning to end, I'm reminded of how talented the Eagles are and how close they were to being 4-0 (Vick injuries in week 2 and 3 and turnovers/missed kicks in week 4). This isn't to say that the Bills are push-overs, but I don't think their defense will be sharp enough to handle the Eagles plethora of weapons. You could say the same thing about the Patriots game, but if you watch that game, several of the interceptions were not really caused by the Bills defense but rather the Patriots receivers themselves.
I think the Eagles get back on track en route to getting back to a playoff caliber level. Eagles win by 10. This week's pick (and already booked): Philadelphia -2.5
Last week's result: Cincy covered the +3 spread in a straight-up victory of Buffalo
YTD: Fools Gold is sporting a 4-0 record. I have bet on the last three games on 5dimes (2 spreads, 1 money line) and have profited $170.
Likely Week 5 Picks
Carolina +6.5/7 vs. New Orleans - Cam Newton has rejuvenated a Panthers offense that was completely anemic last year. So far, Carolina has went 3-0-1 against the spread (the only record gamblers care about), which shows me that Carolina is improving. I thought that the Bears' defense might cause him some problems last week, but was I wrong (the wrong theme continues). I think the Panthers will keep this close and may even pull off an upset. I'm hoping to catch this line at +7.
Atlanta +6/7 vs. Green Bay - I hope to get Atlanta at +7. Matt Ryan is money at home, so spotting him a touchdown sounds more insane than betting against the Packers at this point. Falcons are a different home team and will get some revenge for their embarrassing loss to the Packers in the playoffs in January
Detroit -5 vs. Chicago - Now that the Lions have the attention of the nation, it only makes sense that they make their first Monday Night appearance in eons this week. The Bears showed themselves to be solid against Matt Ryan in Week 1, but have been shredded up by Drew Brees (270 yards, 3 TDs), Aaron Rodgers (297 yards, 3 TDs) and Cam Newton (374 yards, 1 TD). I expect Stafford to continue what he's been doing with Calvin Johnson, who has destroyed all corners and safeties that have come his way.
Other bets I am considering: Indy -2.5; NYJ +9.5. No totals have caught my eye yet.
Gambling on NFL & NCAA so far:
| Week 4 | Week 5 |
| NFL 3-5, -$75 | NCAA 0-0 |
| Totals 0-4, -$220 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 3-1, $145 | Spreads 0-0 |
| YTD: 18-12-3, +$314 | YTD: 8-12, -$325 |
| Totals: 7-5-1, +$127 | Totals: 0-3, -$220 |
| MLs: 2-0, +$126 | MLs: 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads: 9-7-2, +81 | Spreads: 8-6, +$65 |
As always, I recommend following my picks on twitter.com/brianbolek or @brianbolek
Enjoy this week's action. I haven't decided if I'm betting any NCAA yet. Last week I held off, in part to not liking much and in part to the Buddy thing.
Good luck to your fantasy teams, bets and most importantly, your REAL teams!
8/03/2011
Can't Wait: Preseason Pigskin Predictions
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| Bart Scott can't wait for the NFL season to start, and neither can I. Hence, NFL Predictions 5 weeks in advance. |
There's still trades and signings to be made, but my gut feelings for NFL predictions are coming clearer to me. I'm gonna use an offshoot of Bookmaker's new site for odds reference purposes. With each team, I will pick whether I project over/under for the total listed on Bookmaker.
Note: I am projecting team's win totals, but did not add up the wins to see if they add up to the proper amount of games
AFC East
It looks to be a two-horse race between New England (-175) & the Jets (+130). The Bills (20/1) and Dolphins (10/1) are popular bets if you are looking to piss money down the drain. I would have given the nod to the Jets here if they were able to sign Asomugha, but they are essentially the same team as last year, minus Brad Smith (who will be missed for his special teams contributions) & plus Plaxico (who will help in the red zone regardless of his layoff). The pick here is New England.
New England 11.5 (over - 13); NYJ 10 (push); Miami 8 (under - 7); Buffalo 5.5 (over - 6)
AFC North
Another two-horse race - with Baltimore (-160) edging Pittsburgh (+115) as the favorite, according to the site. Cincy (25/1) & Cleveland (10/1) are long-shots, and for good reason. I'll take the defending champs of the division (Pitt) to repeat, with Balt once again getting the wild card.
Pittsburgh 10.5 (over - 12); Balt 10.5 (under 10); Cleveland 6.5 (over -7); Cincy 5.5 (under - 5)
AFC South
According to oddsmakers, seems like the theme of the AFC so far is 2 teams with a real chance in each division. Every year, there's one division that has a team that surprises the league and wins a division. My first mild surprise in this regard is the Houston Texans (+175) over the Colts (-140). The moves of getting Wade Philips as defensive coordinator and Jonathan Joseph (a young solid cornerback) will help Mario Williams on the defensive end of the ball- which was the only thing that was holding them back from a playoff run last year. Their offense should continue to shine behind Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson. The Colts aren't the same team they were a few years ago, when they made their run to the Super Bowl. I think Manning is gonna miss some games with the neck injury this year, and they cannot afford him to be out in the slightest. His current backup? Curtis Painter (28 career attempts in 3 years).
Houston 8.5 (over -11); Indy 10 - (under - 9); Tennessee 7 (under - 6); Jacksonville 6.5 (Under - 5)
AFC West
Last year, this was one of the division winners that caught Vegas offguard, with the Chiefs taking the division from perennial power San Diego. I think the Chiefs overachieved last year and will come back down. I expect the Chargers at -225 (being the first team in modern football history to miss the playoffs despite top yardage rankings in offense and defense) to rebound and retake the division easily. Their special teams cannot be as bad as they were last year - their Achilles Heel last year.
San Diego 10 (over - 12); Kansas City 8 - (under - 7); Denver 5.5 (over - 7); Oakland 7 (under - 4).
NFC East
I'm gonna take the bait and make the Eagles (-150) as my division pick, but I think Dallas at +280 has the best value, given the way they closed the year with Garrett as coach. They still got some money to spend after being spurned by Asomugha - who went to their rivals in the city of Brotherly Hate. There aren't too much. No way anyone (even Mike Shanahan) could reasonably make a case for Washington (25/1); otherwise, I could see anyone, including the Giants (+225), taking the division.
Phil 10.5 (over -11); NYG 9.5 (over - 10); Dallas 9 (push); Washington 6 (under - 4)
NFC North
With the Packers returning about a starting lineup's worth of starters from their 2010 injured reserved list, their depth is unparalleled in the league. The Bears won the division despite a terrible pre-season but ultimately fell short in the NFC Championship. I think they over-achieved last year, mainly thanks to their dynamic defense - the staple of any Bears team that has success. I think the Packers take the division. And I'll go against the grain here and say that the Lions under-achieve compared to how everyone is perceiving them.
GB 11.5 (Over - 12); Chi 8.5 (Under - 7); Detroit 8 (under - 7); Minnesota 7.5 (under - 6)
NFC South
Atlanta (+110) & New Orleans (-110) appear to be the front-runners again this year, with each making significant moves in the offseason. Atlanta's main transaction was to add to their offense by drafting Julio Jones, a stud from Alabama, and in the process trading about half of their draft. This deal reminded many of the deal the Saints made for Ricky Williams. While it should help their offense, I think the Saints will retake the division. They just signed San Fran's second best defensive player from last year (Franklin) to the D-Line and drafted Jordan out of Cal. These moves should help bolster a run defense that was about middle-of-the-pack. Tampa (+480), under the rising star of Josh Freeman, probably have the best odds of any team that I think has a reasonable chance at a division title.
NO 10 (Over - 11); Atlanta 10 (Push); Tampa 8 (Over - 9); Carolina 4.5 (Over - 6)
NFC West
Last and definitely least, here we are to the NFC Worst, the first division winner to ever sport a losing record. Never mind that Seattle (7-9 last year) upset New Orleans - doesn't erase the fact that this was the worst division in the history of any sport. San Fran (-130) is once again the preseason favorite, although not as highly hyped as last year, where just about every publication had them as the division winner. Again, until I see Alex Smith perform well consistently, I will find this division favorite stuff hard to believe - even in this division. The loss of Franklin to the D-Line will hurt the Niners more than most free agent losses to any team this year. I think the Rams (+200) will pull off the division victory. Bradford nearly did the impossible last year, having the Rams alive for the division crown going into the final week. This year, they will have it wrapped up by week 16.
StL 7.5 (Over - 9); San Fran 8 (Under - 7); Arizona 7 (Under - 6); Seattle 6 (Under - 4)
(I counted 13 overs, 16 unders and 3 pushes - so probably under-projected the league as a whole in terms of wins)
So to recap, division winners:
AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego
NFC: Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, St. Louis
Wild Cards:
AFC: Baltimore, NYJ
NFC: Atlanta, NYG
AFC Championship: San Diego over New England
NFC Championship: Green Bay over New Orleans
Super Bowl: Green Bay over SD
Of course, I will be way off on this. There will likely be at least one team around 4 or 5/1 that sneaks up on everyone and wins their division (best chance of that is with Tampa). I will definitely revisit this in 6 months to see how wrong I was, just as I have analyzed my baseball predictions.
Enjoy the preseason, and let's enjoy the first of at least a decade's worth of NFL seasons of labor peace.
7/25/2011
Back to Business: How the NFL's Return Will Affect Non-NFL things
The great news has been shouted as loud as Paul Revere's "The British are coming" (X2) - the NFL is back!
For me, it means fantasy football season is back. It also means that I get to defend my first successful betting season (50-34, +$693) in my life. And I'll be able to get my first look at the Jim Harbaugh-led San Francisco 49ers. Will his confidence in Alex Smith be reciprocated by solid play from Smith? Something to look forward to.
Also, I have been asked to pitch in for a DirectTV package, so I will be able to watch my boys every week. When I was asked about this and thought about it for a second, I couldn't pass up on the chance to watch them week in, week out - no matter how depressing they may look at times.
For you, it probably means the same things - Sundays at the bar or at home watching your favorite team (if you're reading this, likely the Bears) with some good friends of yours, likely consuming tons of calories on adult beverages and cholesterol-filled goodies.
However, there are other people/groups who are lot happier than us not involved directly with football that are delighted to hear about the return of the nation's favorite sport.
Hotel chains
Imagine how much money would have been lost if the lockout continued and the season disappeared for hotels. From the plethora of fans who travel to see their teams to the NFL teams and their staffs themselves, the hotel industry was likely to lose millions for all the empty rooms that would come of this. This would have resulted in layoffs and cutbacks that our economy really doesn't need at this point.
Tourism industry
With hotels comes tourism. For those of us in Chicago who have walked the streets on a random afternoon, it is a common sight to see people from out of town in jerseys that match their team visiting the Windy City in some sport. Some of these people may have come to Chicago at some point in time, but there would have definitely been a hit to most city's tourism. Maybe except for Cleveland, but that's another story.
Bars & Restaurants
You think that bars would still be packed Sunday afternoons in the fall if the NFL wasn't around? Even moving some college football games to Sunday would have made it difficult to fill the void that the NFL brings in for bars. The NFL is a cash cow for many industries - with bars being one of the most prominent. The loss of revenue on Monday nights would also be affected - as I know that I'd be less likely to go out on a Monday night in the fall if football wasn't on.
(and most importantly)...Baseball Fans of Bad Teams
Before you think this is a shot at Cubs' fans, remember that the White Sox are often hopelessly hovering around 2nd or 3rd place around the time that the NFL starts, teasing us to the bitter end and then eventually getting eliminated with a week left in the season. I may not be able to speak for teams outside of our market, but I imagine the sentiment is the same as far as needing the NFL to come back to mask the woes of their ugly baseball team. It may be different in the New England, Arlington, Philadelphia & San Francisco areas, but many other cities who have football and baseball teams have fans that cannot wait to forget about the 2011 baseball season and cling onto the hopes of their NFL team this season.
There's probably other industries/groups I am missing, but those are the groups that I feel benefit the most from the NFL ending its lockout that aren't directly related to football.
In the meantime, free agent signings are about to clutter the bottom line and beginning pages of the sports section. Let the madness begin!
Initial prediction for the season: Packers repeat. I don't need to hear about the current free agents and where they go. Green Bay has a whole starting roster of guys coming back from injury. I believe the only way they lose in the playoffs (assuming they make it there) is if they get outcoached.
Your thoughts?
For me, it means fantasy football season is back. It also means that I get to defend my first successful betting season (50-34, +$693) in my life. And I'll be able to get my first look at the Jim Harbaugh-led San Francisco 49ers. Will his confidence in Alex Smith be reciprocated by solid play from Smith? Something to look forward to.
Also, I have been asked to pitch in for a DirectTV package, so I will be able to watch my boys every week. When I was asked about this and thought about it for a second, I couldn't pass up on the chance to watch them week in, week out - no matter how depressing they may look at times.
For you, it probably means the same things - Sundays at the bar or at home watching your favorite team (if you're reading this, likely the Bears) with some good friends of yours, likely consuming tons of calories on adult beverages and cholesterol-filled goodies.
However, there are other people/groups who are lot happier than us not involved directly with football that are delighted to hear about the return of the nation's favorite sport.
Hotel chains
Imagine how much money would have been lost if the lockout continued and the season disappeared for hotels. From the plethora of fans who travel to see their teams to the NFL teams and their staffs themselves, the hotel industry was likely to lose millions for all the empty rooms that would come of this. This would have resulted in layoffs and cutbacks that our economy really doesn't need at this point.
Tourism industry
With hotels comes tourism. For those of us in Chicago who have walked the streets on a random afternoon, it is a common sight to see people from out of town in jerseys that match their team visiting the Windy City in some sport. Some of these people may have come to Chicago at some point in time, but there would have definitely been a hit to most city's tourism. Maybe except for Cleveland, but that's another story.
Bars & Restaurants
You think that bars would still be packed Sunday afternoons in the fall if the NFL wasn't around? Even moving some college football games to Sunday would have made it difficult to fill the void that the NFL brings in for bars. The NFL is a cash cow for many industries - with bars being one of the most prominent. The loss of revenue on Monday nights would also be affected - as I know that I'd be less likely to go out on a Monday night in the fall if football wasn't on.
(and most importantly)...Baseball Fans of Bad Teams
Before you think this is a shot at Cubs' fans, remember that the White Sox are often hopelessly hovering around 2nd or 3rd place around the time that the NFL starts, teasing us to the bitter end and then eventually getting eliminated with a week left in the season. I may not be able to speak for teams outside of our market, but I imagine the sentiment is the same as far as needing the NFL to come back to mask the woes of their ugly baseball team. It may be different in the New England, Arlington, Philadelphia & San Francisco areas, but many other cities who have football and baseball teams have fans that cannot wait to forget about the 2011 baseball season and cling onto the hopes of their NFL team this season.
There's probably other industries/groups I am missing, but those are the groups that I feel benefit the most from the NFL ending its lockout that aren't directly related to football.
In the meantime, free agent signings are about to clutter the bottom line and beginning pages of the sports section. Let the madness begin!
Initial prediction for the season: Packers repeat. I don't need to hear about the current free agents and where they go. Green Bay has a whole starting roster of guys coming back from injury. I believe the only way they lose in the playoffs (assuming they make it there) is if they get outcoached.
Your thoughts?
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