3/28/2011

Baseballog - A Quick Look through the 2011 Divisions

Adam Dunn Adam Dunn #32 of the Chicago White Sox poses for a photo on photo day at Camelback Ranch on February 26, 2011 in Glendale, Arizona.
Adam Troy Dunn:
The newest face of the Chicago White Sox. I'm expecting a solid OBP, 41 HRs and of course, lots of K's.

Time to get my 2011 predictions put out there in stone and see how they turn out. With each division, I'm gonna go through the best value in the division (according to BookMaker's odds for each division) and then give my pick for the division.

AL East

Best value: Tampa Bay +1000: I know they lost a bunch of big stars via free agency and trades, but their minor league system is loaded. For 10/1 odds, considering they've won their division 2 out of the past 3 years, I'd take my chances.
Winner: Boston -200: I imagine the Yanks pitching staff will improve by July through some trades, but for now, I'll take my chances with Boston. I wouldn't want to lay this much on the dollar for them to win the division though. I think they are slightly over-valued.

AL Central

Best value: Minnesota +160: Chi/Det/Min are jumbled up, with Chicago the slight favorite on the site. When it comes to the AL Central, I err on the side of Minnesota.
Winner: Minnesota: See my last comment. They always seem to pull it out. I'll obviously be rooting for Chicago, but the first tenth of this century has been a Minnesota-led division. Chicago is my Wild Card

AL West

Best value: Los Angeles Angels +300: I don't remember them making any outstanding offseason moves, but any team managed by Mike Scioscia has a fighting chance. They're a few years removed from their better years, but it's worth a shot.
Winner: Texas -160: So the Rangers decided to keep Feliz as the closer, which I think is the right move for now. I don't see the Angels or A's overtaking the Rangers in this division. Lineup is still solid, but the loss of Cliff Lee would be the reason they'd lose this division (if they do). He'd impact their win total by 5-7 games at least.

NL East

Best value: Florida +1000: Another team that usually tends to rebuild well on the fly. They got a lot of solid prospects that are major league worthy around some proven players. Josh Johnson is a legit Cy Young candidate.
Winner: Atlanta +200: This is my semi-shocker of the predictions. I like the direction Atlanta is going in, and I think Philly will fall short of the high expectations placed upon them. People forget how average Oswalt and Hamels have been in the past couple years in spurts, although Oswalt did close last year out very well. Philly is my Wild Card. They'll still be good, don't get me wrong.

NL Central

Best value: Chicago +370: They closed the 2010 season off well with Quade, who the players seemed to get a jolt of energy from with his tireless work ethic and no-BS attitude. His handling of the Silva problem was perfect. I think Chicago does better with lower expectations, so wouldn't shock me to see them make a run for the division crown.
Winner: Milwaukee +215:  I like the staff they have in Milwaukee. Marcum's been an under-rated guy in Toronto, and as long as Greinke doesn't miss too much time, I like their chances. Prince is playing for a new contract. And anytime a guy like Braun has an underachieving year with a .304 average, 25 HR and 103 RBIs, you know you got a great player on your hands.

NL West

Best value: SD +1800: They are an offseason removed from almost winning the division. I know they traded away their best hitter, but I think they have enough pitching on their staff to keep them competitive.
Winner: SF even money: Posey entering his first full season must adjust to the changes that pitchers will make on him. That's usually how sophomore slumps develop- the pitchers adjusting to you quicker than you adjusting to them. I think he will avoid it. Solid pitching staff 1-thru-5 makes the WS champs the pick ahead of Colorado.

PLAYOFFS:

Phil over Mil, SF over Atlanta/ Phil over SF in NL
Chi over Bos, Tex over Min/ Chi over Tex in AL

WS: Phil over Chi

Yes, I got two wild cards in the World Series. Phil will probably win the NL East, but in MLB, it doesn't really matter how you make the playoffs anyways. Whether they win the NL East or not, I think their pitching is the best equipped to win in a 7 game series. However, Philly's +220 to win the whole thing is a little too low for me to bet. Chicago's +2100 to win it all has great value in my opinion. And trust me, this isn't a homer talking. Everyone expects Bost vs. Phil, but how often in baseball do we get the chalk teams to make it to the series? Baseball is too much of a crapshoot on a daily basis, so why not take a crapshoot of a shot on Chicago's odds to win it all.

I'd like to hear your predictions. I will write a follow-up blog in November about this and see how bad these predictions are.

Opening Day and great weather is right around the corner!


Below text, added 4-10-11:

Evaluating a baseball season 2 weeks into it is like analyzing your Calculus grade before you even get the syllabus. I did take a quick look at the division/World Series odds on some of my expected winners/sleepers to see how they changed. Some of the highlights:

Best value in the AL East, Tampa Bay Rays, is now +3000 to win the division. They've started out just god awful- marred with injuries to Longoria, suspensions-turned-retirements with Manny (not like he was gonna do much this year) and various other things I don't feel like looking up. Sam Fuld did just make one of the most amazing catches I've ever seen against the Sox, and he should be fun to watch the rest of the year. But I think there was a reason the Rays were +1000 the year after winning a division title- because they suck.

Winner in AL East, Boston, is now -110. This would have been the value that I would have bought them at to start the year, not the number I found them at initially. They are still slight favorites over the Yanks, who are -105. Overall- my analysis of the East looks shitty to start.

AL Central- Odds not changed much. I never did post this online, but I bet the White Sox $20 to win $420 (21/1 odds) to win the World Series. Today, they are 25/1. Must be that bullpen that scares the shit out of people from backing them now.

AL West- Texas has now become an much higher favorite due to their strong start (-220). This looks like my most solid prediction out of the 6 divisions so far. Not like it took a rocket scientist to predict it though.

NL Central- Haven't really been following most of the NL that closely, but the Cubs' odds fell to +275, so that must mean I would have had value in Cubs +375 for the division (shrug).

NL East- I still like the odds I got (hypothetically) with the Braves, and this shows with them falling to +170 to win the division. Marlins (my sleeper) rose to +1500.

NL West- Again, not much change here with odds. Giants are getting positive back on the dollar now (+110), which I think has great value. If their 5 man rotation stays healthy the entire year, I think they clinch this division with a week to spare.