Son of a South Beach: The Development of the Hate for Lebron & Lebron/MJ Myths Dispelled

It's quite the feeling to root for a player that your entire social network hates, aside from a few people. But that's the feeling I had as I watched the NBA Finals the past couple years. The Heat defended their NBA crown Thursday night by winning a thrilling seven-game series against the San Antonio Spurs, their toughest opponent in the past two years.

All the while, every move, every breath, every bowel movement taken by Lebron James was analyzed by everyone. The media who need something to write about. The fans who hate him for one reason or another. About 99 percent of my Facebook/Twitter peeps were rooting against him and/or the Heat.

Why the Hate?

They cite many reasons for their hate. Let's start from the beginning:

1. The Decision - Lebron teasing what team he was going to led ESPN to help create a prime-time special that was as highly watched as a non-sporting sports event could be. Jim Gray asked Lebron a bunch of nonsense questions before King James announced that he was taking his talents to South Beach. And with that statement, he drew the ire of basically every fan base but the Miami Heat. I'm not so convinced that Bulls fans would have a different perspective of this event had he said he was joining the Bulls, who would likely be hoisting their second title in third years if he joined them.

The glitz and glamour of the Decision aside, what no one mentions is the amount of money Lebron raised for charity through this event: $2M for the Boys & Girls Club. A friend of mine says Lebron could have donated his own money, but that's $2M more than most of us have donated to that. A charitable act like that is still a charitable act.

2. Championship Guarantees - Not even a day later, Lebron made the famous "not 5, not 6, not 7..." championship guarantee. This was preceded by a celebration of Wade, Bosh and James joining forces that resembled a wrestling event more than an NBA team coming together in July. This brash prediction seemed a bit much and only added more fuel to the fire to the bandwagon haters (yes, anyone that has hated the Heat since 2011 is a bandwagon hater). I didn't care for this prediction either way - this definitely added to the hate.

3. Bulls/Heat - Eastern Conference Finals - This is when I saw the hate first-hand as I lived in the Chicago burb of Oak Forest at the time and realized how bad it would be for the future. I went out to my local bar for the first game, a game in which the Bulls romped the Heat and led to extreme overconfidence with many of my friends (you know who you are). The next four games were won by the Heat. I went out for a couple more games for the series, including the clincher in which the Heat came back from double digits down in the last half of the fourth quarter to take the Eastern Conference crown. All the while, cries of the refs favoring the Heat were seen all over. Only the true fan boys blame the refs for losses - as every team gets calls here and there that are ignored when they benefit their team but stressed when they don't.

4. Mavs beat Heat - I was in Vegas for several of the 2011 NBA Finals games (random fact, I can remember starting my Twitter account during this series). The most interesting thing about following the series was how many people all of a sudden treated a Heat loss as if the Bulls were the ones who beat them. Nope - it was the Mavs, led by an unconscious Dirk Nowitzki, the man who was truly destined for the title in this particular year. As Game 6 closed, many Bulls fans celebrated the Mavs victory as if it was their own, which puzzled me. 

5. The Crowning A Year Later - In the 2011-12 Finals, the Thunder won game one on their home court but failed to win another game (just like the Bulls). The rest of the series was owned by the Heat, including a title-clinching romp. I don't recall anyone outside of me in my friend base that was happy that this Lebron title-less story was over and done with.

There's probably a few things in between that I'm missing, but you get the point/timeline.

The Jordan Rules: Unraveling the Myth

Now, a year later, the Heat add a title to their resume and people hate the Heat more than ever. Which brings me to my next topic, a topic that I swore I'd never address again as recently as last year when comparisons between Jordan and Kobe were made constantly. 

Last year, now that Lebron had a title under his belt, the topic of Michael Jordan was brought up as a comparison point as to who whether Lebron is better than him. 

Let me tell you how ridiculous the comparison is:

(1) We're comparing how Lebron is now to how Jordan finished, not where Jordan was at this point in his career. Lebron has just completed his 10th NBA season and won his second title. Jordan had three titles after 10 seasons. While Jordan was 32 entering his 11th season and on the precipice of winning the last three of his titles, Lebron will still be under 30 and has a chance to win as many as Jordan did. But is that really the argument? If he wins as many or more titles than Jordan, would Jordan fans really concede that Lebron is better? By the time Lebron turns 34, he may have as many titles as Jordan.

(2) No matter the titles, Jordan fans will say that MJ > Lebron...but then why does it always come up as an argument point - that MJ has more titles than Lebron? The total titles is just an excuse. Lebron could win 8 and it wouldn't matter with many fans - Jordan would be better.

(3) Jordan didn't need to join forces with a team. This argument makes me laugh the most. The myth of Jordan, as everyone has built, states that Jordan would have never joined forces with other superstars (a la James) to win a title.

Do you know the players that were drafted or acquired by the Bulls in the Jordan years (the pre-title years and the second title runs included)? Here are the best ones (there were some duds in between, but enough hits to help Jordan)

• 1987 - Horace Grant drafted, Scottie Pippen acquired in the draft. The Pippen trade might be the biggest fleecing in an NBA trade in our lifetimes (traded for Olden Polynice). Grant was a starter on the first three title teams.
• 1989 - Another starter for the championships was drafted: B.J. Armstrong. Not a superstar, but a sufficient player that helped Jordan.
• 1990 - Toni Kukoc, a key contributor to the second set of titles
• 1995 - Dennis Rodman acquired in a trade for Will Purdue

In the entire title run, there wasn't a time where Jordan was playing without at least one Hall of Famer. 1991 through 1993, he had Pippen; 1996-98 he had Pippen and Rodman.

Now....do you know the best signings and draft picks the Cavaliers made since James was drafted there in 2003?

Check out this murderer's row of draft picks since 2003 for the Cavs

The best player to be drafted by the Cavs between James and 2010? That's a tough call. Do you go Daniel Gibson (7.8 points/game for his career), who is best known by his feminine "Boobie"? Or is it J.J. Hickson? What I was totally unaware of before looking at this draft list was that the Cavs drafted the newly-famous Danny Green, who was only with them for 2009-10 and played sparingly, going to the Spurs the next year.

Free agent/trade-wise, James played with some stars who were waaaaaay past their primes. Ben Wallace & Shaq were among the stars who had faded long before they joined forces with a young Lebron. Mo Williams was about as prime of a star as Lebron had in his time in Cleveland.

If Lebron wanted to win a title, he had no choice but to join forces with other superstars - no superstars were going to the Cavaliers, and they certainly were drafting anyone that helped Lebron in the slightest. NBA history has shown that you need Hall of Famers around you to win titles. Lebron wasn't going to win it with this consistent rag-tag bunch of misfits. Yes, there were years of getting the 1 or 2 seed, but that was a testament to how great Lebron was and had little to do with the players around him.

Now you're telling me that Jordan wouldn't have left the Bulls if he was in the same situation - terrible talent evaluation and free agent acquisitions - with his drive to win and further market his Jordan brand? Jordan may say he would have never left, that he would have never wanted to play with the guys who he competed against, but that's only with the benefit of hindsight - he would have left in a heartbeat if he didn't think Pippen and company could help win him a title (and let's not forget that guy Phil too). If the roles were reversed, James would have never had to leave his original team, as he would have had a competent front office that made moves to help surround him with the parts necessary to win a title. And yes, I believe Jordan would have left the Bulls if Jerry Krause was unable to put the necessary players (including a Hall of Famer in Pippen) in place.

Haters Gonna Hate

The one thing I have learned to accept for the most part is that most people I'm close to will never appreciate Lebron as much as they should, for many of the reasons mentioned above. The arguments of hating him get tiresome - if you want to hate him for his whining and flopping, I'm way more ok with that than any other reason mentioned above (he has no reason to complain or flop).

But if you're going to hate him for a Decision, surely not Lebron's finest hour, 60 minutes erred in judgment (you've never had a Decision or erred in judgment like that, Yeah...), which mind you, helped donate $2M in charity, get over it. It happened three years ago.

The best part of being freed from the Lebron/Heat hate that people around me have is that I've been able to enjoy the best NBA player do his thing without wasting energy to hate something/someone. Why can't we just enjoy things these days, enjoy immense talents like Lebron, a once-in-a-lifetime talent, without having an element of hate?

Have fun wasting your energy with hate. I'll continue to enjoy one of the best ever without all of the stress and hate that accompanies your viewing of Lebron and the Heat.

(If you've read this far, I should note that I'm not a Heat fan, but a fan of Lebron - but I guess you'll associate it all the same, so no worry).

Game 6-cess: The Greatest Non-Bulls NBA Game I've Ever Watched

So much happened in that Game 6 comeback win for the Miami Heat that I'm not even sure where to start, so I suppose I'll start from the most logical spot: the beginning...

Before getting into my analysis, for full disclosure, I had the following bets: Under 95.5 for the first half; Under 191.5 for the game; Under 184.5 for the game at 2/1 odds & Lebron scoring over 28 points

1st quarter - Father Time has been kind to the Spurs nucleus of Parker, Duncan & Ginobili, and was especially kind to the Big Fundamental in the first half. Duncan started the game as if he chugged from the fountain of youth, netting 12 of his 25 first half points in the quarter. Meanwhile, Lebron started out slow, deferring quite a bit to his teammates - Chalmers led the Heat w/ 10 points in the first quarter. Miami carried a two point lead into the second quarter.

2nd quarter - Still waiting for Lebron to take over some of the scoring load, but he was never able to get going. Boris Diaw - a man who couldn't even crack the Bobcats' starting lineup a couple years ago - was a thorn in the King's side. Meanwhile, Duncan continued to dominate as the Spurs carried a 50-44 lead into the half thanks to an 11-2 run to end the quarter.

At this point, I was starting to doubt the Miami Heat's chances. I was thinking they would need to have a Game 2/4 effort to have a chance.

3rd quarter - Lebron still being held in check, but the Heat are able to chip the lead down to 1 within the first 5:30 of the half. Then, the Spurs had a run that made just about everyone think that we were about to see Duncan get a ring where he could high-five Kobe with a hand-full of rings. A 14-2 run gave the Spurs some separation as they took a 75-65 lead heading into what most people thought would be the final NBA quarter of the 2012/13 season.

4th quarter - A quick 8-2 run less than two minutes into the final quarter gets Miami back in it, and no shock - Lebron had his hands on all three shots made (2 points, 2 assists). Before you knew it, Miami was able to grab the lead just as quickly as it took the Spurs to build it - a Ray Allen lay-up with just over six minutes left gave the Heat their first lead since the latter half of the second quarter.

But then, just as Lebron was dominating the fourth quarter to quiet all of his critics (7-for-10, 16 points in the quarter), a couple of ugly possessions involving Lebron (including what looked to be a lob that someone didn't read) threatened to end the Heat's chances of repeating as the Spurs went from three down to up five in a 90 second sequence.

Lebron somewhat made up for his errors on previous possessions by burying a three after Mike Miller grabbed LBJ's initial long-ball miss moments before. Down 2, they were fortunate that Kawhi Leonard split his free throws, setting up the drama of Ray Allen using the cold blood in his veins to nail a three to tie the game with five seconds left, which forced overtime.

In the overtime period, the teams exchanged baskets before the Heat took the lead for good with less than two minutes to go. After Ray Allen hit a pair of free throws, a Danny Green three was blocked by Chris Bosh (his second block of the overtime) to end the game.

Best Game Since the 1998 Finals

After reflecting, I still say this game holds up as the best game I've watched since Jordan ended his Bulls career and sixth title run with a Game 6 win over the Jazz.

The game had everything you'd want in an all-time game:

• One last moment to remember Tim Duncan by. No matter what he did in the second half, his 25 first half points were more than he scored in any Finals game in the series before this. (By the way, just realized that Duncan's career started when I was a freshman in high school). A loottttttt has changed since then, but Duncan being a beast has not changed.
  
• A game that had more runs than the aftermath of a chili cook-off. It was impossible to figure out when one run was about to end to give way for another to start.
  
• A Joey Crawford-reffed game that had little-to-no major sightings from the controversial referee, whose appearance on a court is usually greeted with groans of game-fixing and disillusionment from some of the outlandish calls he has been known to make.
  
• A Hall-of-Fame player playing like a Hall-of-Famer when it mattered. Lebron took ownership of the fourth quarter, which was nearly forgotten in a two-possession sequence that threatened the Heat's repeat chances. (The one thing I hated about Lebron was what the common complaint against him has been - complaining about calls. It wasn't the complaining that bothered me as much as his lack of effort in getting back to the defensive end. There's no excuse for that, especially in the Heat's most important game of the season - and arguably the most important game in the team's short-term history)
  
• Another Hall of Famer, doing what he does best. Ray Allen's three in the corner with five seconds left tied the game at 95 to force overtime and essentially ended my chance of winning my under bet on the game. Due to the significance of the moment, I didn't care the slightest in my bet losing there. I jumped off of my living room couch, scaring one of the cats and probably Jen in the bedroom as she watched one of her reality shows.

I don't know what will happen in Game 7. I think the Heat will win, if only because this loss for the Spurs reminds me of the 2011 Texas Rangers, who had a World Series title at their fingertips, a strike away several times before the Cardinals and David Freese took the moment away from them.

The Spurs seem like too good of a team to have this game mentally affect them going into Game 7. In the back of their minds, they have to know that this is one of the (if not the) last times they will have a chance to win a title together again. I think Pop will have them ready to play, but I'm not sure that will be enough. Losing will not spoil their dynasty in my eyes (4 titles since 1999 is nothing to sneeze at).

The Hated King

I am anticipating a legendary Lebron Game 7 performance that will likely get ignored by many people who hate Lebron - which seems to be everyone in Chicago but me. I'm not sure if people are still mad at Lebron for how he handled The Decision, if it's because Lebron's Heat have eliminated the Bulls in two of the last three postseasons, if it's Bulls fans that still have a hard-on for MJ and need to compare him to Lebron and his lack of rings every chance they get, or if it's just Lebron's flopping personality (every team, even the Bulls, has someone who whines about fouls - but yeah, I get that Lebron doesn't need to do it). The last part would be the most acceptable reason in my eyes, although it still doesn't mean you can't appreciate greatness when you see it as a fan of a sport.

Whatever happens in Game 7, I find it hard to believe that it will match the overall intensity, desperation and stars maximizing their star power that Game 6 had.

Facing the Heat: Why Refs are the Wrong Focus for Miami's Success

The Miami Heat are a day removed from going up 2-1 in their series against the Chicago Bulls, but it has nothing to do with the skill level of the Heat. At least that's what many in my social network would like you to believe.

• "I guess it's the Bulls versus the Heat/refs"
• "The Bulls are playing 5 on 8"
  

Those are a couple of quotes I came across (among many) since the Bulls/Heat series started. It's all the same complaints recycled from the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals, when the Heat downed the Bulls in 5 games to reach the NBA Finals.

Blaming the refs is the easiest and laziest argument that a fan can make. It works as the perfect defense mechanism when your team loses - I saw this first hand when my boys lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens. Many Niners fans put a big chunk of the blame on the striped shirts for not calling a defensive hold against the Ravens on the Niners' last offensive play in the red zone (a fourth down) when San Fran was down by 5 late in the game.

What those fans failed to mention was the thorough beat-down that the Niners got in the first half that put them in a huge hole. They fail to mention the way Jacoby Jones and others tore apart their secondary and special teams units - the match-ups that ultimately failed the Niners. Just like a basketball game, there will be calls that go against an NFL team, even on the highest stage of the game. That doesn't mean that the referees caused the team to lose. The Niners' chances should have never hinged on a judgement call from the zebras - they shot themselves in the foot too often early on to blame officials for a non-call, which didn't even guarantee them a victory (they still would have needed to score a touchdown, which they failed to do on the previous three plays from the same yard line in the red zone).

The same goes for the bitching that many Bulls fans have done when their team loses to the Heat. They'll call Lebron a whiner (they call him much worse than this, but I have to limit my use of the female dog reference to one mention per paragraph). They'll say that the refs have it in for the Heat and want to see them win the title again.

If the NBA was as rigged as everyone would like you to believe, do you really believe there would have been NBA Finals match-ups like the Spurs/Pistons, Spurs/Nets (or Spurs/anyone), Lakers/Magic? The Spurs are one of the least attractive great teams in NBA history (were never good for ratings), yet in the past 10 years have made the Finals three times (winning all three appearances in 2003, 2005, 2007 in addition to their 1999 appearance). Unless you're an NBA junkie or a fan of one of those teams, I doubt you gave serious thought to watching any of the series mentioned above. And the ratings for those series (particularly the Spurs' ones) prove you likely didn't tune in. If it's all about ratings and money, then the rigging theory doesn't make sense in those situations.

The Heat are not winning because of the refs. They're winning because they're a great team - they did go 66-16 in the regular season after all, outscoring their opponents by an average of 8 points per game. They didn't win 27 straight games this year because the striped shirts assisted them. They had that streak because they were dominant on both ends of the ball, outscoring their opponents by a 105-93 margin during their historic streak.

Speaking of history, Lebron had one of the quietest historical seasons in NBA history this year, shooting an unreal 56.5% from the field, 40.5% from three-point territory (both career highs by far), while averaging nearly 27 points, 8 rebounds (career high set this year) & 7 assists per game. He has improved his field goal percentage every season since the 2006-07 season while continuing to maintain his stellar stats across the board in every other category.

The above facts are not the result of the refs handing them wins, but because of amazing talent and a core who's had the chance to gel together for the past 3 years to become the best team in the league.

Yes, there are times when it gets annoying to see Lebron pout when he doesn't get a call, but let's not act like this is a trait exclusive to the Heat. Whenever I watch Noah or Boozer foul a guy, immediate looks of disgust almost always accompany the whistle and the calling of their number for a personal foul. There's probably at least one or two guys on every team in the league that have the "you gotta be kidding me!" look when they get called for a foul. But when it's your guy complaining, Joe Fan, who blindly supports anything the team does, will see the call the same way as the complaining player and completely neglects the hypocritical nature of their complaints. So yeah, the bitching about Lebron pouting seems silly.

And it's funny that of all teams, Bulls fans will complain about the star treatment that Lebron gets when a half NBA generation ago, they were witnesses to Air Jordan, who got his fair share of calls in his favor (his last shot with the Bulls when he pushed off on Byron Russell was the perfect example - if Lebron did that, Bulls fans would scream "Bullshit!")

Your team gets calls too. You're just pretending it doesn't happen.

I'm not saying that the Heat don't get any calls in their favor - they do. But I don't believe they get any more or less calls in their favor than most teams in the league, although many of you reading this might wholeheartedly disagree. It's hard to remove fandom with the judgement of other teams and referees. But to think there's a conspiracy theory every time your team loses to a great team who you think is getting hundreds more favorable calls than your team, that's just your fandom talking. Watch a random game of any sport involving two teams you don't care anything about, and you'll see that the bad calls go both ways and usually balance out in the long run.

And think about how many times your team gets breaks from referees. Oh wait, you can't, because they never make calls in your team's favor. I bet you can name 20 instances of refs being against your team before you can name a situation where a call benefited your team. You're way more likely to remember the times that an external force outside of your players (the refs) supposedly caused your team to lose than you are to remember when the refs may have made a big call in your favor to aid a victory. When your team wins, you attribute your team's win to their immense skill, not because they had a beneficial call or set of calls in a game. When your team loses, it's because the refs screwed them over. You can't have it both ways.

I fully expect the Heat to close this series out - if not in 5 games, then probably 6. And I also fully expect that the refs will be the root blame of the Bulls defeat, not the Heat's players, who have shot 60% & 50% in their past two games against a tough Bulls defense. Even without some defensive stoppers like Deng & Hinrich, the Bulls' defense is still a top-notch unit, making the Heat's hot shooting even more impressive.

Give some credit where credit is due. The Heat are good - damn good. I know you hate them, which is probably another reason why you might say the refs are favoring them. For the next set of games, try going 5 or 10 minutes without saying the word "referee" and instead focus on the players making the plays - I bet you can't.

The Heat will get a call here and there that goes in their favor, but it won't be the reason they win the series. They'll win it because they're better. Simple as that. 

If You Can't Beat Him: What NBA Contenders Should Fear Regarding Lebron

When Lebron James joined the Heat in the summer of 2010, he joined a stable headlined by Dwyane Wade (who had been with the Heat for his whole career) and Chris Bosh. All of these guys came from the same NBA Draft (2003 - one of the best NBA Draft classes of all time) and all were free agents at the same time.

The Heat filled out their roster with the likes of Mike Bibby, Mike Miller and Juwon Howard, among others. In total, their playoff roster in 2010-11 featured seven players (out of 13 guys who played at least one game in the playoffs) who signed with the Heat in that offseason. They failed to win the NBA title that year, losing to the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. However, this model of "Let's Hitch Onto Lebron's Wagon" was just about to start.

Miami won the title in 2011-12 with two new free agent signings (Shane Battier & Ronnie Turiaf) and look poised to repeat while adding Ray Allen, Chris Andersen (aka Birdman) and Rashard Lewis to the roster.

Joining the King's Dynasty

There's a very interesting feature to almost of all these players who have become new to the Heat roster since Lebron signed - their willingness to play significantly less minutes than they are accustomed to in hopes of winning their first (or in some cases, their second) NBA titles.

In the 19 total seasons played by the 11 newly signed Heat in the past 3 years, a total of 14 of those seasons (over 70%) featured a player playing 15% less minutes than the player in question averaged in the previous five seasons before joining the Heat. The only season by a new Heat player where more minutes were played as a member of the Heat was Chris Bosh's first year with the team (seeing a slight bump from 36.3 minutes to 37.6). Otherwise, his other two seasons (and the other 16 combined seasons) featured a lower-than-average MPG total.

These 11 new players since Lebron joined have appeared in a total of six NBA Finals (3 titles), so many of them were willing to play less minutes in order to win their first (or second titles) championship largely on the back of Lebron.

For example, Shane Battier has prominently been a starter in the league, averaging 33.6 minutes per game in the 5 seasons before he became a member of the Heat for the 2010-11 season. In his two seasons with the Heat, he has averaged 23.1 and 24.8 minutes per game, or about an average of 30% less playing time than he was accustomed to before the Heat.

The 2012-13 additions (Allen, Andersen, Lewis) are all averaging more than a 20% decrease in minutes from their previous five seasons respectively, with Allen (from 35.7 minutes to 25.8) and Lewis (34.3 to 14.4) seeing the biggest drops in playing time.

So what do these numbers tell you below? 

Once veteran players have reached that point in their career where playing for a team that has never won or even sniffed an NBA crown, the ones who worry less about playing time (and money) will be the first ones in line to play with Lebron while he is at the peak of his game. You might see veterans doing this (playing less minutes and making less) with some other contending teams right now (the Thunder come to mind) - all for the chance to win that NBA title that has eluded them for most or all of their extended careers. Out of the 11 newbies who have joined the Heat in the past 3 years, only one of them (Ronnie Turiaf) has been in the league for a shorter time than Lebron.

To make a short story long, what many NBA teams have to worry about is talented veteran players (guys who could still log starter minutes if they wanted to) choosing to forego larger contracts and instead play with the Heat as long as Lebron is there.

As the years progress (and as long as Lebron remains with the Heat), this trend should only continue. The Heat will be a very attractive destination for these title-starved players, who likely have made their share of money and will sacrifice a little money earned and court minutes to win their first/next ring.

Averages	5 seasons before Heat/James	2010-11	% Decrease in Mins	2011-12	% Diff	2012-13	% Diff
Wade	37.89	37.14	0.02	33.2	0.12	34.7	0.08
Bosh	36.3	37.64	-0.04	35.2	0.03	33.2	0.09
Chalmers	28.6	22.55	0.21	28.5	0.00	26.9	0.06
Anthony	16.97	19.51	-0.15	21.1	-0.24	9.1	0.46
Bibby	33.58	26.45	0.21
Miller	34.14	20.44	0.40	19.3	0.43	15.3	0.55
Jones	19.5	19.12	0.02	13.1	0.33	5.8	0.70
Haslem	31.8	26.54	0.17	24.8	0.22	18.9	0.41
Howard	21.9	10.39	0.53	6.8	0.68	7.3	0.67
Ilgauskas	27.2	15.9	0.42
House	17.98	17.46	0.03
Magloire	19.38	8.78	0.55
Battier	33.61			23.1	0.31	24.8	0.26
Turiaf	18.67			17	0.09
Allen	35.68					25.8	0.28
Andersen	19.24					14.9	0.23
Lewis	34.25					14.4	0.58

A Bunch of Bull: Why Derrick Rose Owes You Nothing

Remember the last time Derrick played in garbage time? Yeahhhh

Did you lend him $50 for a pair of shoes years back? Did you cover his lunch at Wild Wings and he promised to get you back?

No and no? Ok then. Derrick Rose doesn't owe you a thing.

Not a goddamn thing.


You say he owes you to play out the end of the regular season. You pay his salary after all, or so you say - actually Jerry Reinsdorf does. If anything, he would owe it to his team and organization, and I'd argue that even that is false. When a man's health is in question, he owes nothing to anyone.

You say he should play because he is practicing just fine, that he's running around, taking shots and looking decent. Do you really know how he is? Practice versus game is a different beast. Plus, if it happens to be a mental issue and he just doesn't think he's ready, do you really trust him to be his elite self right now?

Sure, you say you don't expect him to dominate right away, but why demand that he plays at all this year, especially if he is not going to be dominant?

You say that other athletes recently have recovered from ACL injuries in a faster time period (Adrian Peterson has officially ruined the reasonable recovery time for these injuries - beware RGIII). It's not reasonable to expect Rose's ACL to heal as fast as a guy like AP's (or for anyone who has had quick recoveries from the type of injury Rose has had). Everyone's body is built differently and they all heal differently, so you can't expect one case to be like another.

Are you questioning his heart if he is not playing? Just because we see guys like Michael Jordan playing through a flu and we see Brett Favre tough out injuries for years to start over 300 straight games, we expect our stars to "gut it out and play". Like I said before, whether it's still his injury that is affecting him or if he just doesn't believe that he is ready to come back mentally, it does him no good to be out there.

Rose will be 25 years old when the 2013-14 season begins. He has an entire future of basketball to worry about. It might not be as long of a career as Steve Nash has had, especially if Rose continues with his aggressive style of driving to the hoop against the taller trees of the NBA. Nevertheless, it's still a decade of potential greatness that he has no reason to risk on some meaningless regular season games. Besides, this is not a Bulls team that can be considered an NBA Finals team, especially with how dominant the Heat have been. Don't be deceived by the Bulls' regular season victories this year against the Heat - they mean nothing come playoff time. The Heat will run through the East.

With this being Spring/baseball season, now's as good of a time to say this to a Chicago fan...Wait till Next Year

If you ask me (and I know you did, since you're still reading), I think he should sit this season out, get everything fully healed, and get ready for the 2013 season. He has too bright of a future to risk for this year.

You think he owes it to you, the fan who sits on his ass at the United Center with popcorn butter and ketchup covering his #1 jersey, to play this season? He owes you nothing.

If anything, you owe him a little patience. Wouldn't you rather have a healthy Rose next year than a hobbled one (whether it be physically or mentally hobbled) playing?

Talents like Rose don't come around often, so be patient and wait for the return of #1 next year. Believe me, it will be worth the wait.

Reheat: NBA Preview 2012

With such a short offseason compared to other major sports, it never feels like NBA is out of season.

The freshest things in mind are the ones I'll touch upon. I have friends who I'd consider bigger basketball junkies than me - I'll give you a simpleton's point of view with this past offseason.

The Dwight Stuff

It only took what seemed liked decades, but Dwight Howard finally got his wishes to leave Orlando when his old team traded him to the Lakers. Howard joins veteran Steve Nash as the big acquisitions to the Lakers, who are gearing up for at least one more Kobe title run before he hangs it up in a few years. Anyone who thought the Lakers were not the favorites to land Howard all along (rumors had him going to the Nets as they kick off their inaugural season in Brooklyn). I believe the Lakers will make it far, but I believe their championship will have to wait a year.

Agony of the Heat

Speaking of champions, America's least favorite team - ok, maybe more so Chicago area's least favorite team - is the reigning NBA champion. They added sharpshooting veteran Ray Allen to the mix - a great move in my opinion. I foresee a lot of Lebron kick-outs to a wide open Allen for three this season. With the championship taste still in their mouths, I expect the champs to repeat en route to what should be a dynasty that features at least 4-5 championships (assuming LeBron stays there and doesn't opt out in a couple years).

Thunder Struck

Just a few days ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded away James Harden to the Houston Rockets, with the key player coming to the Thunder being Kevin Martin. A lot of people are wondering why the Thunder would make such a move, but apparently Harden turned down a contract with them (wasn't a max contract). With the trade, he can make about 50% more over the life of the contract (signing a max deal w/ Houston over the deal the Thunder offered) if I've read everything right. So he goes from a championship caliber team to a rebuilding one - the classic "Should I chase money or rings?" argument. He can't convince me or anyone else that he thinks he'll even come close to sniffing a conference finals, yet alone contend for a title, in the next 3-4 years, where with OKC, he's likely guaranteed a few more title appearances if he stays. More power to him for taking the money. We all say we'd go for the ring if we were these guys, but WE aren't talented basketball players capable of being in a position to make these choices. Good luck Harden - you'll need it.

Flop It Like It's Hot

One of the biggest rule changes that took place over the offseason was the NBA instituting a fine system for players who attempt to flop on fouls in their attempt to eliminate it from the game. I forgot what journalist said it (I think it was Bomani Jones) who said this will likely create a class in the NBA of those who can afford to flop and those who can't. Players can be fined up to 30K if they are caught flopping up to five times. A guy making six figures won't chance flopping that many times. Should be interesting to see (a) how often this gets enforced and (b) who are guys who get hit with the most fines.

Predictions By Division (in predicted order) - numbers represent their predicted seed in playoffs

Eastern Conference

Atlantic: 2. Boston, 5. Philly, 7. Brooklyn, New York, Toronto

Central: 3. Indiana, 6. Chicago, 8.  Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit

Southeast: 1. Miami, 4. Atlanta, Washington, Orlando, Charlotte

Notes: Yes, probably a little shocked to see Cleveland in the playoffs. I was initially surprised to put them there, but then remembered several playoff teams from last year (New York and Orlando) who I eliminated from consideration. Kyrie should take the next step and show why Cleveland picked him number 1.

Otherwise, my picks are pretty bland. I picked all of the favorites to win their respective divisions here. The most likely division for a long-shot winner would probably be the Atlantic. The Heat should clinch the Southeast title by the end of March, if not sooner. If Rose can return and shake off the rust quick, I could see the Bulls finishing top 2 or 3 in the conference. My projection is that if he does return, the rust will take a while to shake.

Western Conference

Northwest: 2. Denver, 3. Oklahoma City, 7. Utah, Minnesota, Portland

Pacific: 1. LA Lakers, 6. LA Clippers, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento

Southwest: 4. Memphis, 5. San Antonio, 8. Dallas, Houston, New Orleans

Notes: I threw a curveball and have Denver and Memphis as division winners. I think I'm buying into Denver based on Hollinger's projection more so than my own analysis. I also think it could take some time for the Thunder to get used to playing without Harden. The Lakers should roll this division but will likely save their energy for the playoffs, so 56/57 wins should be expected as opposed to 60+.

Eastern Playoffs Round 1: Miami over Cleveland, Boston over Brooklyn, Chicago over Indiana, Atlanta over Philly

Western Playoffs Round 1: Lakers over Dallas, Denver over Utah, OKC over Clips, San Antonio over Memphis

EP Round 2: Miami over Atlanta, Boston over Chicago

WP Round 2: Lakers over Spurs, OKC over Denver

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami over Boston

Western Conference Finals: Lakers over OKC

Finals: Miami over LA in 6

NBA MVP: LBJ.......Sleeper: Kyrie Irving 

NBA 6th Man:  Manu Ginobili. San Antonio.....Sleeper: I don't know this category well enough to predict it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC.....Sleeper: Andre Iguodala - Denver

Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver....Sleeper: Larry Drew, Atlanta

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Most Improved Player: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

Random prop questions:

1. Will anyone get flop fines up until/past the fifth flop? No
2. Will the Bobcats set an NBA record for losses in a season? No, but barely
3. Return timeline for Derrick Rose - All-Star Break (Before or After): After
4. Biggest Longshot w/ a title hope: Denver at 50/1
5. Biggest Favorite w/ little title hope: Chicago at 16/1 (No Rose, No Shot)

Bets made before season: Denver to win Northwest division +540 (50/270); Denver Over 51.5 wins (130/100)

B List: Agony of the Heat (List 6)

This LBJ didn't make any promises about Vietnam. Instead, the basketball version declared that he would win "not 5, not 6, not 7..." NBA titles. In their own ways, both Lyndon Johnson & LeBron James would find ways to vilify themselves with their own words.

One down, "not 6" to go for LBJ Jr. to live up to his words. His team did what many thought they were capable of, but were unlikely to do, at least this time around against a talented Oklahoma City Thunder squad that features some of the best collection of young talent that the NBA has seen in quite some time.

I thought the Heat would win based on their experience from last year, but I didn't think they would completely dismantle the Thunder. Outside of a poor second half in Game 1 and poor 1st quarter in Game 4, the Heat destroyed the Thunder on both ends of the floor. LeBron showed what happens when the most talented player in the NBA puts forth maximum effort to achieve his goal. It's a scary thought for NBA teams who have to face him in the next 6-7 years.

Below are 7 (not 5, not 6) thoughts concerning the Heat as to where they stand now and looking forward to what could be a prolonged run of championships for the most hated squad in the NBA.

7. The Eastern Conference looks like a cakewalk for the foreseeable future. I know most Bulls fans would disagree, but I think last year was their best chance in the Miami/LeBron era to make it to the Finals. Outside of Rose, the Bulls have no legit scorer that can create his own shot. Over the course of history, the NBA has shown itself to be a sport where you need at least 2 of the top 10/20 talents on a team to win titles.  If they don't land a big fish like Dwight Howard, I don't think they can reasonably beat the Heat in the near future. I think the Bulls have maximized their talents in each of the last two regular seasons.  Even if Rose comes back mid-season next year, I don't think he'll be all that sharp.

The Pacers are a team on the rise, but outside of Granger, they don't have a complimentary superstar (although Roy Hibbert is developing into a solid player). The Celtics' realistic window for title shots was 2008-2010. The Knicks may have the best shot of rising from the ashes outside of these teams in the East, but that may be a stretch.

If you look at it objectively, it could be easy to see the Heat winning the East for the next 4-5 years if the teams above don't make major roster moves.

6. They should consider moving Dwyane Wade.  I read this online earlier, and it made some sense. With how reckless and physical Wade has played in his 9 year career, his body has taken more of a toll than most of the same length career. In addition to missing 17 games this year due to injury, Wade has also missed significant time (20+ games in a year) in three other years due to injury. Wade's numbers don't show it yet, but I think there could be some value in trading him to get more depth, especially while he has some miles on the treads.

5. No matter how many titles they win, Coach Erik Spoelstra will never get any credit. There aren't too many coaches who could go under the radar or get as little of the team's credit as Spoelstra has. Many people (perhaps idiots) speculated that he would be canned if they didn't win a title this year. I don't know a whole bunch about him other than his unusual rise up the ladder from video editor to coach. I know Pat Riley loves the guy - not sure how unconditional that love would be if they fell short again though. This buys Spoelstra at least another two years - of which I believe the Heat to win at least one championship in that time (possibly both). I'm not sure if it's fair that he doesn't get much credit, but he should get some.

4. LeBron needs to stay hungry and continue to play with a chip on his shoulder. Look at what happened with Dallas this year. Dirk was so out of shape that his coaches recommended that he take time off during the season to get back into shape. I'm not sure if he didn't think there would be a season or what, but the way he entered this year gave people the impression that one title was enough for him. I definitely don't see LeBron having the same problem in terms of entering the 2012-13 season with a beer belly, but I do think he needs to find a way to avoid the post-first-title hangover that seemed to accompany Nowitzki. Look at how LBJ played in this year's playoffs - he took his game to a level that wasn't surprising given his talents, but surprised people given his recent bad fortune in the playoffs. It goes to show how talented LBJ is that "bad fortune" in your career means making it to 2 NBA Finals & a conference final before the age of 27. If he can stay hungry and not get a hangover, I believe the Heat (including this year) will win 4 or 5 out of the next 6 titles.

3. Outside of themselves, the biggest obstacle to a prolonged NBA title run for the Heat will be the Thunder. I believe that the Thunder will remain the best in the west for the next 3-4 years, presuming they keep their core of Durant, Westbrook & Ibaka (I think Harden will sign elsewhere for a max contract). It will be nearly impossible for the Thunder to maintain their current collection of talent given potential salary cap problems. To those who know basketball, superstars like Durant rarely win at a young age - it usually takes one or two lumps to the forehead to know what it takes to win the title. I do think Durant will win one or two titles in his career, but I think it may not be for a few more years.

2. The Heat winning the title was good for the NBA.  My friend Nick said he will continue to hate the Heat much like he hates the Yankees. I bet if you polled 100 random sports fans who their least favorite team in NBA/MLB was, the Heat and Yankees would be the frontrunners to win those titles. Think - what did it take for everyone to hate the Yankees so much? The answer: titles...and lots of 'em. If the Yankees currently had as many titles as the Cubs, do you think people would hate them as much? Sports fans tend to hate teams that have prolonged runs of success. People hated the Heat before they won anything, so you can only imagine now how much more they will hate the Heat if they go on a Bulls-like 6-of-8 run here. I believe this hate for the Heat will equal ratings gold for the NBA.

Unlike MJ, whose commercial appeal defined him more than his selfish, asshole attitude, LeBron doesn't have the same appeal with the mainstream media. I don't know if it's people still holding that bad 48-hour stretch of hosting a primetime show to declare where he was taking his talents and then stating how many titles he was going to win against him, but LeBron has taken the most shit from haters in the Twitter era of basketball. I think MJ should be lucky he didn't play in this social media era, because his attitude and personality would have gotten more exposure than it did back in the day, where it seemed like folks in the media were afraid to call out MJ on his discretions off the court.

1. My prediction: by the end of his career, LeBron will have as many titles as Jordan. While they won their first titles at the same age, LeBron also had a few more seasons underneath his belt. Both needed the help of other Hall of Fame/All-Star quality people around him to win it all (LBJ has Wade & Bosh, MJ had Pippen & Phil Jackson). Both needed to overcome the "so close, yet so far" feeling - LeBron losing to the Spurs & Mavs in separate NBA Finals, MJ being dominated by the Pistons for that three year stretch.

Once MJ got going, the only thing that really stopped him was his first brief retirement, which some conspiracy folks believe was a suspension for his gambling ways. In his last 6 full seasons with the Bulls, Jordan led them to titles, including setting a record for most wins in a year with 72 in 1995-96. I don't know if LeBron (or anyone) will ever beat this record, but I do believe LeBron, if surrounded with the right talent, can start a similar title run.

I know living in Chicago, we have the idea in our heads that MJ won these titles by himself - he didn't. Every superstar needs some semblance of talent around him to succeed on the biggest stage. I think the core of LBJ & Bosh (assuming my scenario above plays out and Wade ends up getting traded) would be as good of a starting point as anybody in the NBA for a prolonged run of titles.

Much of this stuff above is opinion and speculation, so feel free to dissect it. I'm not always the best when it comes to predicting what will happen.

All I know is, whether you hate the Heat or not, you better be ready to see them in the last two series of the NBA playoffs every year for a while.

Turn the Heat Up: NBA Finals Preview (OK, more of a LeBron rant)

Outside of my B-lists, I haven't found much time to write lately. That's what packing and moving and trying to settle into a place will do to a guy.

Probably won't be too long with this blog, but I figured I should get my NBA Finals blog in before deadline.

As you may have read before, here's the predictions I made before the playoffs started. For once in my life, I got a Finals prediction right, with several predictions coming in exactly as stated.

Now, about 30 minutes away from tip off, I've already read plenty of stuff about how LeBron is going to choke again, how he will never win a title, how he's not the best player in the league.

Some of this I believe to be the product of the 24/7/365 (this year, 24/7/366) news cycle that requires networks such as ESPN to have a loud opinion at all times. And as in the news, whatever bleeds, leads, so we have the negative nonsense that drips from the mouths of a-holes that ESPN dares to call analysts.

In this day and age, the target of everyone's venom is LeBron James, whose biggest crime was to make a fool of himself on national television and decided he had had enough of playing with a below average basketball team. He's such a jerk, all the $2.5 million in ad revenue that came from The Decision went to the Boys and Girls Club of America. What a dick. So as he said the words, "I'm taking my talents to South Beach", so began the unreasonable hate of LBJ, a hate that many sports fans seem to thrive in.

The energy exuded as people talk about him makes me think that LeBron killed your family and made you watch. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that no, he didn't kill your family. The dude dribbles (and many times, "dribbles") and shoots basketballs for a living - not exactly stuff that people need to get all worked up about.

Yet, every time I look on Twitter, Facebook or any NBA-related programming on TV, all I ever hear about is how is LeBron going to choke this time, how LeBron sucks, how LeBron will never be Jordan, etc. I do think, at least here in Chicago, there is the constant need for us to compare the players that are considered the greatest now to Jordan, which is not fair to anyone - not Jordan, not James, not anyone. When we hear the words MVP and greatest, we don't want to believe that there will ever be another Jordan - which any reasonable person would agree is not going to happen.

In Jordan, we had a guy who hated to lose. You got the feeling that Jordan would run over his mother in the lane if she was standing there if it meant an inch closer to victory. With LeBron, you don't get that feeling. In that way, I can see a reason to shake your head at with James.

I think in all aspects of life, we should embrace and respect greatness, whether it's on a basketball court, a concert stage, or even a kitchen. Not only that, but we should want to see the great want to be great and do whatever they can to be great. We shouldn't want people to settle for mediocrity. If the most talented at their craft consistently show the urge to be great, it can be a great thing to witness.

What we saw in Game 6 with LeBron James just flat out taking over the game on the brink of elimination was a thing of beauty. If you hate the guy after a performance like that, you're suffering from a severe case of jealousy. We should want to see great. What many people have hated from LeBron is when he has looked average in the past when we know what he is capable of.

I know this is not much of a preview, but I just wanted to stress how it doesn't do us as sports fans any good if James doesn't win this year. Do you really want another year of losers like Skip Bayless saying that LeBron sucks (while touting incompletion machines like Tebow)? The annoying chatter will only get more annoying, will only take up more air time. WE. DO. NOT. WANT. THAT. If you do, you're a sadistic person and you'll get what you'll ask for.

Of course, the Heat have to earn it, which they will do if they win. The Thunder are a great team, probably a little deeper than the Heat. I don't need to get into match-ups - not really my thing anyways.

I'm banking on the Heat's experience from last year to play a role in this year's Finals. I expect a split in the first two games, Heat taking two of three at home, then taking home the crown in a great 6 game series.

I was called a Heat apologist from a friend of mine. I can see why he might think that, but in reality, all I want to do is find the Truth, which is somewhere in the middle of everyone's unnecessary hate of LBJ & the Heat and my "defending" them.

I'm no Heat fan - just a fan of folks not being dumb when it comes to criticism. If you're going to hate LeBron, hate him for his effort if he doesn't show his full display of talents. Don't hate him for some decision that 98% of us would agree is a reasonable one - leaving a fledging business to become a co-CEO of a Fortune 500 company.

For the next two weeks, I'm rooting for the Heat because I want to be able to watch the NBA next year without hearing the same narrative play out another year. Is that too much to ask?

The Finals Countdown: NBA Playoff Preview (2K12 version)

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are right around the corner. I got half of the Finals right last year (Heat but no Thunder). Now, that particular match-up is the one that many would like to see (and one that many expect to see).

The Spurs expect to make a strong push as they get the #1 seed in the West for the 2nd year in a row. Somehow, they were written off by many (except for my friend Tom), probably because their age was looked at as a detriment in the compacted schedule due to the lockout.  Popovich (along with Thibodeau and Vogel) should be considered a front-runner for Coach of the Year with how he has been able to manage his version of the Big Three (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) along with the rest of his roster. I came across a stat on Twitter (didn't double check it, so take this for what it's worth) that the Spurs only lost 3 games total when their roster (I assume their normal starters) was at full strength.

The Thunder look like a good bet to make a run. Coming off of his third straight scoring title, Kevin Durant looks to have a complete squad around him (another scoring option in Westbrook, solid defenders in Harden and Ibaka, a veteran with a few rings in Derek Fisher). I'm looking at Spurs/Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, with the Thunder taking it.

The top spot in the East goes to the Bulls again. Despite the absence of Derrick Rose due to various injuries for what seemed like months, Tom Thibodeau was able to muster out a 50-16 record and the top overall seed in the NBA. However, no matter how much Bulls and their fans may be happy with the #1 seed in the East, they will (and should) be ultimately judged on whether they can make the next step in the 2012 Playoffs and advance to the NBA Finals. This will likely involve a matchup versus the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When the season started, we all wanted to just fast-forward into the end of May and get the Miami/Chicago series going already - pretty much dismissing the rest of the East. While I still think this will be the series, my convictions on the series are not as strong. I'm not sure if Miami has been on cruise control in the regular season and waiting for the playoffs to step everything up, but they've given me an uneasy feeling in terms of backing them to win it all. They had a two-week streak earlier this year of beating teams by 12+ points, so I know there's a championship caliber team there if they play up to their talent level.

Last year, the Heat took four straight after losing Game 1 to the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of the credit for that series win goes to LeBron's defense on Rose, one of the few guys who can match Rose's speed and has many inches on the reigning MVP. I'd say the Bulls look better as a team this year, but the playoffs are a different matter. I still think the Heat will take the East, especially with Rose's health lingering as a constant question throughout the year. If Rose can maintain a semblence of health, I'd give the Bulls a good shot of winning it. BUT, and it's a big BUT, someone else will need to step up as a scorer in the series in the event LBJ contains Rose just as well as last year. With Rose's health in question, I have to give the Heat the edge.

You may argue that the Bulls played well (even against the Heat) without Rose this year, but they will need Rose at his best in a 7-game series (no matter how deep their bench) against the Heat.

So for the second year in a row, I'm going Heat/Thunder in the finals, with the Heat winning it. It's not much of a reach, but it's just what I see happening. If you care to provide your own opinions, I'm all ears.

Eastern Conference Playoffs
R1: Bulls over Sixers (sweeeeeep); Celtics over Atlanta in 6 (I can't trust Atlanta. Ever.) Miami over NY in 5; Pacers over Magic in 6
R2: Bulls over Celtics in 7 (trying to duplicate their series from 2010, with the reverse result); Miami over Indiana in 6
ECF: Miami over Chicago in 6

Western Conference Playoffs
R1: Spurs over Jazz in 5; Memphis over LAC in 6; Denver over LAL in 6 (they will miss World Peace); Thunder over Mavericks in 6
R2: Spurs over Memphis in 7; Thunder over Denver in 5
WCF: Thunder over Spurs in 6

Finals
Heat over Thunder in 6.

Finals MVP: Dwyane Wade

Regular Season Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Frank Vogel, Pacers
League MVP: LBJ, Miami
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving, Cle
6th Man: James Harden, OKC
Improved Player: Ryan Anderson, Magic
Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, OKC

Revenge of the Heat

Last month, Chicagoans rooted against the Heat as loud as they could. Now, it looks like a heat of a different sort will have its revenge.

Today's temperature, according to NBC5 News, is the highest we have seen in 6 years. People rushing to air conditioning, pools, lakes and hoses as fast as they possibly can. If you are without AC and a pool, your life is probably a little more unbearable right now than most dealing with the heat.

Me? Oh - just working from home in an air-conditioned house, with access to a pool after the work shift is done. Granted, at this point, the pool resembles more of a hot bath right now. It's just nice to know that it's there. (Ahhh, feels good to be an a-hole sometimes with some of these statements.)

If you have air conditioning at home and your work allows you to work from home, then do it. There's no reason not to take advantage of working from home from time to time (or even permanently). If you don't feel like you'd be able to motivate yourself to work by yourself, you could always commute and then take the 20 minute walk to the office in this weather. That may motivate you enough to stay home for a few days and work remotely. Who needs human interaction anyways?

If you can't work from home, then just tough it out or use some PTO. We deal with extreme weather of all kinds in this area, so what's a little heat? I'd suggest a summer home in Canada and a winter home in Florida or Arizona if these extremes are too much for you. Or a Mediterranean climate like San Francisco.

Good luck rooting against this heat, because unlike LeBron in the Finals, this heat seems to be closing strong.

One in the Hand is Worth Two Busch Lights

Only took 70 years, but Americans are finally embracing an element of Germany again.

Disregard every I said in the past month about LeBron and the Heat. Everything they did right against the Bulls, they did wrong against the Mavericks. They couldn't close out games. They blew a big lead in what turned out to be the difference making game (to me anyways) in Game 2.

Everyone and their mother (except me and my mother) were rooting for the Mavericks in this series.

Correction. They were rooting against the Heat. Never have I seen such hatred for a team in my memory. The 2007 Patriots were close, but this Heat team takes the cake. Not to say I blame people, because all the elements of hatred were there.

(1) The declaration of a championship in July. Actually, make that 8 championships. Not too many people are going to like you when you do that.

(2) The Decision. Even though all the money he got for that went to charity, this was what made people hate LeBron and the Heat the most. Jim Gray goes from respected journalist willing to ask tough questions to a complete tool. Lebron made people think this The Decision was a difficult one when he knew all along he was going to join his boy Wade as early as 2008.

(3) Heat over Bulls in EC Finals. This was merely the icing on the cake. People from Chicago didn't need any extra reason to root against the Heatles in the Finals. But Chicago's exit made Miami a popular hate item on the menu. See: just about every bet I made with people on the Dallas/Miami series.

An aside here, but I don't think the Heat are going to relinquish their Eastern crown any time soon.

(4) Dirk - What do fringe basketball fans like rooting for more than anything? A white guy who can shoot hoops! Ok, this wasn't really a reason. I just needed to throw in a "White Guy is Good at Basketball" reference.

There's probably more reasons, but I don't care to go into them. I just lost $190 ($135 from series bets and $55 on Miami -5) and 6 pitchers of beer. And not only that, I'm drinking a 9 month old Busch Light at the moment. The point of the story is: people here (and everywhere aside from Dallas) were watching to root against the Heat, not necessarily rooting for the Mavericks. If Dallas beats Orlando, no one here gives a rat's ass.

Turn out the Busch lights, the party's over. As the 26 real Miami Heat fans sulk in defeat, the rest of Miami (and the world) parties.

Lost (in) Vegas, part 6

A view from a walkway during Vegas dusk, 6-5-11

No shock here...I lost in Vegas. My friend Tom says he is never coming back after some pretty big losses, notably the French Open and NASCAR. Sometimes I wish I could say the same thing - that I'm not coming back here. Rarely do I even come up on a trip here. In fact, most of my trips have had a similar feel. Very awful first day, moderate 2nd day, and then a comeback on the last day.

This trip was no different. I had won my first 2 bets of the trip but then fell into a hole with my Thursday night/Friday morning bets of Miami ($330 lost in 2 bets) and Djokovic ($300). A moderate comeback started with some horse bets, increase $ in my wallet from $13 at one point to over $200. I left the sportsbook with $103 that day and was about to call it a night when my friend reminded me that I was in Vegas so I went to plop down $100 at our casino's roulette table. I decided to play the #28 and #22, and not even 2 spins in, the 28 came in. 3 spins later, #28 again. Another couple spins later, another 28. At the end of the night, up about $360. I had to thank Tom for getting me out of the room.

Saturday seemed promising after I won my first bet (five inning under of Red Sox/A's) to get up to nearly $600, but then a string of three bets flushed nearly all of that away. I tried another horse race comeback to no avail - this failed attempt occuring as the annoying Canucks fans took over the Bellagio sportsbook. As the night closed, I decided I was gonna cave on my ATM avoidance and take money out so that I could bet on Nadal the next day. However, 7-8 failed attempts at getting money out of 4 different ATMs (first trying to take out $300, then $280, then $200, then $100 several times to no avail) made this a problem. I finally tried taking out just $80, which I was able to do twice before a third time said I exceeded my daily limit. I was able to bet Nadal $120 to win $50 profit (-240, which was a shock considering Djokovic was -270 and not the player on clay that Nadal is).

Sunday, we wake up around 7 to see the end of the first set, which went to Nadal, who then took the second set.  Federer took the third set around 9:35 local time, tying up my Nadal money and preventing me from betting the early games. I guess that wasn't such a bad thing, seeing as though I had no good feels on the games. After Federoff hurried back to the Flamingo to get that money, I wagered $120 of the $170 I got back from Nadal on a first 5-inning over for the Red Sox/A's - came in the 3rd or 4th inning. Unfortunately, everything after that up until the Heat game went to crap. I was throwing hay into the wind with some of the bets I was making (five inning bet on Astros against the Padres, Carl Edwards in NASCAR finished 5th). I had to make another ATM trip and took out $80 this time. I distributed it between first half under of 94.5 ($30 to win $30), Miami to win the first quarter ($30 to win $33), and then two separate first basket of the game props in Jason Kidd (10/1 odds) and Mike Bibby (12/1). In reverse order, Bibby got the first basket (+$120-10 for Kidd = $110); Miami pulled away at the end of the quarter (+$33) and a slow down of offense in the 2nd quarter allowed the first half under to clear no problem (+$30). The $60 I got back from the first half under went completely into the Heat/Mavs 2nd half under, which was juiced heavily in favor of the over ($60 to win $72 profit). That came in no problem, but unfortunately my $100 on the Heat covering a reverse line of -3.5 didn't come in.

Monday - the horse racing tradition continued. I won my first horse racing bet and then soon another one after that. But unlike previous last day trips, profits were not in order for this adventure. Tom and I grinded out a few hours of no betting before catching a cab back to the airport, and then eventually getting back to Chicago around midnight.

Tom kept saying he didn't want to go back to Vegas, that this was gonna be his last trip. As recently as a few days ago, he's already talking about going back.

Such is the power of a gambler's life in Vegas. You may lose your cash there, but the Vegas allure remains.

Fame of the Game

Much like politics with "Follow the Money", all one needs to do is to "Follow the Hall of Famers" to see what teams have a chance to win the championship.

Besides being in an NBA Finals matchup for the 2nd time in the past 6 years, what else do the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat have in common? They both have at least 2 future Hall of Famers.

According to data presented by basketball-reference.com, Dwyane Wade and Lebron James (both at 99% odds) as well as Dirk Nowitzki (95%) and Jason Kidd (90%) are likely Hall of Famers based on a probability formula of who will likely be in the Hall of Fame (not who deserves to be in it). Based on this, Chris Bosh has a 53% chance of making the Hall (likely to increase if the Heat become the dynasty they expect to become).

Why mention the obvious Hall-of-Fame angle, you ask? Well, I dug up the champions that have hoisted the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy since I was born (I'm 28, do the math). And I found out some things I already knew and some that I did not.

(1) Based on current players already in the hall and the basketball-reference article, 26 of 28 teams who have won the title have had 2 Hall-of-Fame worthy players on their team, with 11 of 28 teams having at least 3 Hall of Famers. The 1993-94 Rockets (Hakeem) and 2003-04 Pistons (no hall of famers) were the exception to the rule.

(2) Based on the list I am posting below, one could argue that the only team that was led by a point guard to a title in this span was Detroit in 1989 and 1990 (by Isiah Thomas). Otherwise, most of the teams had an inside presence (center or power forward) and/or a shooting guard that were arguably the best players on their teams.

Year	Champion	Hall of Famer 1	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 2	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 3	Primary Position	Hall of Famer 4	Position	Hall of Famer 5	Position
1983	76ers	Moses Malone	Center	Julius Erving	Small Forward
1984	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard
1985	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Guard	James Worthy	Forward	Bob McAdoo	Forward
1986	Celtics	Larry Bird	Forward	Kevin McHale	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center	Dennis Johnson	Guard	Bill Walton	Forward/Center
1987	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1988	Lakers	Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	Center	Magic Johnson	Forward	James Worthy	Forward
1989	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Adrian Dantley	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1990	Pistons	Isiah Thomas	Point Guard	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Joe Dumars	Shooting Guard
1991	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1992	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1993	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward
1994	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center
1995	Rockets	Hakeem Olajuwon	Center	Clyde Drexler	Shooting Guard
1996	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1997	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward	Robert Parrish	Center
1998	Bulls	Michael Jordan	Shooting Guard	Scottie Pippen	Small Forward	Dennis Rodman	Forward
1999	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	David Robinson	Center
2000	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2001	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2002	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2003	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2004	Pistons	None**
2005	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2006	Heat	Dwyane Wade	Guard	Shaquille O'Neal	Center
2007	Spurs	Tim Duncan	Forward	Tony Parker*	Guard
2008	Celtics	Kevin Garnett	Forward	Ray Allen	Guard	Paul Pierce	Guard
2009	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
2010	Lakers	Kobe Bryant	Shooting Guard	Pau Gasol*	Forward
Chances	*As of 5/30/2011	Gasol has 60% of HOF,	according to basketball-reference.com
		Parker has 57% of HOF
	** Chauncey Billups -	best chances of making it - 21%

This somewhat references my last article that states that Derrick Rose needs another high caliber player next to him that can be a difference maker. The previous article never touched base on the fact that it'd likely need to be another likely perennial All-Star/potential Hall of Famer like Rose that would have to be the compliment. Outside of a trade for Howard, I don't see a potential Hall of Famer going to the Bulls this offseason (player lockout be damned).

Using this formula as a gambler, it'd be wise to look at each team and see which teams have 2 or more future Hall-of-Famers and make future bets based on this. Any teams with 1 or less Hall-worthy players should not be considered reasonable bets. Bet on the long-shots at your own risk (especially in the NBA, where only 9 different franchises have won titles in the past 30 years).

As far as the NBA Finals for 2011 is concerned, I expect this to be a highly competitive series in Heat/Mavs II. Only 4 players (Dirk, Wade, Haslem and Jason Terry) remain from the 2006 series, which doesn't seem like a lot for a rematch. That shouldn't make the series any less entertaining.

Dirk enters this Finals on a roll that no one has ever seen from him before. He and LeBron have clearly been the best players in the postseason, which explains why their respective teams advanced to the final series of the season.

Unfortunately for Bulls fans who are bitter about the series loss to the Heat and to NBA fans who just flat out hate the Heat (you can't spell H-E-A-T without HATE, after all), I believe that the Heat are taking this series. Both teams are capable of winning games on the road (each team shared NBA best road records of 28-13), and I think each team will win at least a road game in the series. I flipped between Heat in 6 and in 7, but I'll go with my original choice and say Heat in 6.

Whatever the result, you can add 2011 to the Facts of NBA Life - another team with 2+ HOFers will win the title to make it 27 of 29.

Paging Gar Forman - your move.