4/30/2013

Sure, What the Hell: My First Ever Stanley Cup Preview

Not...really....sure...what...to....do....here. A Stanley Cup preview? Am I high? Not that I'm cognizant of, anyways.

Hell, I didn't even give my yearly preview of the NBA Finals (you can consult my previous NBA Playoff previews to know who I will pick to win it all - Miami).

But with all my cool friends who say that the NHL playoffs are the best playoff season in sports, I felt, sure, get some cheap page views and try learning about a sport at the same time.

I posted a Facebook inquiry Monday evening to see who people thought would make the Stanley Cup, and it reminded me of similar sports where there seems to be a consensus pick for the final showdown of the season. In football, many people had Denver winning it all (couldn't even win a game). In college basketball, Louisville was the most popular pick to win it all, many brackets having them beat Indiana (they beat another Big Ten team instead).

If the people are right, the Stanley Cup will be hoisted by the winner of the Chicago Blackhawks & Pittsburgh Penguins.

Pick Your Friends, Pick Your Nose, But Don't Take Your Friend's Picks: Stanley Cup Predictions

Here are the predictions that my friends and I have made for the Cup, and what the odds (according to 5dimes) of these match-ups occurring):

(note: I picked NYR & StL based on some folks who I trust w/ their hockey knowledge. My thinking: In hockey more than any other sport, upsets in series seem to occur frequently. I was also looking for teams who had good goaltending numbers, since that seems to be a great way to make a run to the Cup)

Pitt vs. Chi - 4 people picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +588 - overwhelming favorite - next closest is Boston/Chi at +1400)

Pitt vs. Anaheim - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +1895)

Pitt vs. Det - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +3800)

Pitt vs. Minnesota - 1 person picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +4650)

NYR vs. StL - 2 people picked this match-up (odds of occurrence: +11100)


Fun with Numbers w/ current playoff teams

Head to Head Match-ups (first round)

Pitt vs NYI (Pitt won season series 4-1)
Mon vs. Ottawa (tied 2-2)
Wash vs. NYR (Rangers won 2-1)
Bos vs. Tor (Boston won 3-1)
Chi vs. Min (Chi won 2-1)
Ana vs. Det (Det won 2-1)
Van vs. SJ (SJ won 3-0)
StL vs. LA (LA won 3-0)

Last 10 Games (teams w/ highest/lowest differentials from each conference highlighted)

Wash 8-1-1 (36 goals, 22 allowed)
Pitt 8-2 (40 goals, 25 allowed)
Chi 7-2-1 (27 goals, 19 allowed)
St Louis 7-3 (22 goals, 17 allowed)
NYR 7-3 (35 goals, 22 allowed)
NYI 6-1-3 (30 goals, 22 allowed)
Ottawa 6-4 (22 goals, 19 allowed)
Det 5-2-3 (25 goals, 15 allowed)
LA 5-3-2 (22 goals, 26 allowed)
Van 5-4-1 (24 goals, 26 allowed)
Ana 5-4-1 (23 goals, 23 allowed)
Tor 5-4-1 (28 goals, 27 allowed)
SJ 5-5 (26 goals, 22 allowed)
Min 4-5-1 (19 goals, 30 allowed)
Mon 4-6 (29 goals, 35 allowed)
Bos 3-5-2 (21 goals, 28 allowed)

Personal Predictions/Bets

Bets:

Stl to win Cup 17/1 (bet this week)
SJ to win Cup 25/1 (bet in March)
NYR to win East 10/1 (bet this week)
StL to win West 8/1 (bet this week)
Stl over LA in R1 1.08/1
Det over Ana in R1 1.20/1
SJ over Van in R1 1.05/1


Round 1
1. Pitt over 8. NYI
7. Ottawa over 2. Montreal
6. NYR over 3. Wash
5. Tor over 4. Bost
1. Chi over 8. Min
7. Det over 2. Ana
6. SJ over 3. Van
4. Stl over 5. LA

Conference Semis (Reseeded)
1. Pitt over 7. Ottawa
6. NYR over 5. Toronto
7. Det over 1. Chi
4. Stl over 6. SJ

Conference Finals
6. NYR over 1. Pitt
4. Stl over 7. Det

Stanley Cup
4. Stl over 6. NYR