A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.
More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.
The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?
So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?
On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.
When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.
If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?
Showing posts with label dallas cowboys. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dallas cowboys. Show all posts
5/17/2013
Fan Switch - When Is It OK to Switch Your Favorite Sports Team?
My friend Tim often shares with me his frustration with any and all things relating to the Dallas Cowboys. Whether it be something Jerry Jones said or did, there seems to be no shortage of things for him and any other Dallas Cowboys fan to legitimately complain about.
I don't want to turn this blog into a Quentin Tarantino flick with the colorful quotes that Tim shares with me about draft picks, dumb signings and baffling quotes - the most baffling of which has to be when he said he would fire himself as general manager if he weren't also the owner.
The more Tim complains, the more I tell him - bail on your team, like yesterday. I won't normally advocate being able to change your favorite teams mid-life, but I've come up with a few exceptions to the rule.
Note - this applies to any sports-loving adult. Kids can go back and forth and often love a couple of teams throughout the course of their childhood for reasons as silly as them being an expansion team or having a left-handed quarterback (so I liked the Jaguars when they first joined the league because of Mark Brunell).
Here are my only acceptable reasons for being able to switch allegiances to teams. I used some ideas that I found from a Google search on the topic, but the words and thoughts (as always) are my own:
1. Relocation of a team into your city/out of your city/team folds: This is one of the most acceptable forms of changing your rooting interest in a sport. For example, no one should expect any Seattle Supersonics fan to continue their allegiance to the Oklahoma City franchise when the Sonics had their team stolen away from them. If someone decides to completely disown being a sports fan in that scenario, I wouldn't blame them.
By the same token, if your city finally gets that coveted franchise in your city, it's quite all right to start rooting for that team. Houston Texans fans may have once been Houston Oilers fans and may have converted to the Cowboys for a brief period of time when the Oilers moved to Nashville. But once they have a new team, all bets are off on what team you could/should root for.
2. You're lucky enough to know an athlete, and you root for his/her team in lieu of your original rooting interest: No one can blame you if you have a brother who was just drafted by the Washington Redskins and suddenly become a fan of the franchise when the previous part of your life, you were cursing Washington as a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan. Bloodlines can acceptably change your fandom. And if this player switches teams, it's quite all right to move along with the team.
3. Your ownership/management group are a bunch of dipshits who you can tell have no competency in running a franchise and often make moves that are done against common sense and/or making your team competitive. See: Jones, Jerry and Wirtz, Bill, among many other owners who have seemed to lack a clue in running a franchise.
When I see Jerry Jones, I see a man who was lucky to win 3 titles in 4 years thanks to the team that was made mostly by Jimmy Johnson. The worst thing that could have happened to America's Team was to win a title without Johnson in 1995, making Jerry Jones think it was all about him. Now, his ego gets in the way of any chance that the Cowboys have in seriously competing for a Super Bowl anytime soon. Have you seen the quarterbacks that have been on his rosters? Outside of Tony Romo, who was brought in by Sean Payton & Bill Parcells when they were with the Cowboys, the Cowboys haven't had anyone lining up under center with an IQ higher than Forrest Gump's. Quincy Carter, Drew Henson, Chad Hutchinson - all bums drafted in the Jerry Jones era. No wonder why he would have fired himself as general manager, yet continues to hold onto this role due to his incompetency and Texas-sized ego.
The subject of Bill Wirtz is sure to warm the hearts of Chicago Blackhawks fans. Wirtz, who built his wealth thanks to liquor distribution and housing, was way behind the times, never embracing modern technology (he didn't allow Hawks home games on TV for fear that people wouldn't go to the games - never mind that just about every other successful team had no problem selling out their arenas when their games were on TV). For being known as a smart businessman, I am baffled at how he could not see the value of showing his team on TV. Also, his nickname "Dollar Bill" stems from his days as a very frugal owner. Most of the Hawks' best free agents signed elsewhere in the 90s, and so began the quick decline of a once proud Original Six franchise.
(And an aside: many hockey fans of teams outside of Chicago will often critique Blackhawks fans for jumping on the bandwagon in the past 3-4 years. While the Hawks have picked up their fair share of bandwagon fans - as any team does in any sport when they field a competitive team, the fans, even the most loyal of ones, were in no condition to support their hometown team when Dollar Bill was the owner. When the old man died and his sons took over, they immediately corrected the mistakes that their father did while owner of the team, including lifting the home-game TV blackout for all home games. It was moves like this, not as much the winning I'd argue, that brought back the fans who used to go to games back in the day but refused to support a franchise who refused to support the fan. I have no problem with the Blackhawks fans who have become fans in this time frame. And as is the case with any bandwagon, you may pick up some new life-long fans from it who end up sticking with the team during future down years.)
In both of these cases, I would not blame a Dallas Cowboys fan, nor would I have blamed a Blackhawks fan, for switching teams. If your management/ownership group show a lack of interest in remaining a competitive sports franchise by constantly spitting in the faces of its fan base with its baffling and incompetent moves, if they abandon you to the point where they don't even really care about you as fans anymore, then who's to say you HAVE to be loyal right back? Do you stay in relationships longer than you should because you don't want to be looked at as being unloyal? That's a dumb reason to stay in a relationship, just as it would be to stay a hardcore fan of a team when that team's owners/management eats a bunch of White Castles and shits all over your hopes on a yearly basis.
4. No more rules apply: I would say that moving to a new city would allow you to root for a new team, but I think this would only be acceptable if you moved from a city/town that had no franchise in a particular sport to one that did. Otherwise, you stick with whatever team you were rooting for before you moved (which is likely your hometown team as long as you're not a weirdo like me who roots for an out-of-market team in football - 49ers).
Here are some major no-no's for changing mid-stream:
I don't want to turn this blog into a Quentin Tarantino flick with the colorful quotes that Tim shares with me about draft picks, dumb signings and baffling quotes - the most baffling of which has to be when he said he would fire himself as general manager if he weren't also the owner.
The more Tim complains, the more I tell him - bail on your team, like yesterday. I won't normally advocate being able to change your favorite teams mid-life, but I've come up with a few exceptions to the rule.
 |
| When is it OK to switch your sports fan interest? |
Note - this applies to any sports-loving adult. Kids can go back and forth and often love a couple of teams throughout the course of their childhood for reasons as silly as them being an expansion team or having a left-handed quarterback (so I liked the Jaguars when they first joined the league because of Mark Brunell).
Here are my only acceptable reasons for being able to switch allegiances to teams. I used some ideas that I found from a Google search on the topic, but the words and thoughts (as always) are my own:
1. Relocation of a team into your city/out of your city/team folds: This is one of the most acceptable forms of changing your rooting interest in a sport. For example, no one should expect any Seattle Supersonics fan to continue their allegiance to the Oklahoma City franchise when the Sonics had their team stolen away from them. If someone decides to completely disown being a sports fan in that scenario, I wouldn't blame them.
By the same token, if your city finally gets that coveted franchise in your city, it's quite all right to start rooting for that team. Houston Texans fans may have once been Houston Oilers fans and may have converted to the Cowboys for a brief period of time when the Oilers moved to Nashville. But once they have a new team, all bets are off on what team you could/should root for.
2. You're lucky enough to know an athlete, and you root for his/her team in lieu of your original rooting interest: No one can blame you if you have a brother who was just drafted by the Washington Redskins and suddenly become a fan of the franchise when the previous part of your life, you were cursing Washington as a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan. Bloodlines can acceptably change your fandom. And if this player switches teams, it's quite all right to move along with the team.
3. Your ownership/management group are a bunch of dipshits who you can tell have no competency in running a franchise and often make moves that are done against common sense and/or making your team competitive. See: Jones, Jerry and Wirtz, Bill, among many other owners who have seemed to lack a clue in running a franchise.
 |
| "I just wanted to announce that I will continue to sabotage a great franchise, so suck it Trebek!" |
The subject of Bill Wirtz is sure to warm the hearts of Chicago Blackhawks fans. Wirtz, who built his wealth thanks to liquor distribution and housing, was way behind the times, never embracing modern technology (he didn't allow Hawks home games on TV for fear that people wouldn't go to the games - never mind that just about every other successful team had no problem selling out their arenas when their games were on TV). For being known as a smart businessman, I am baffled at how he could not see the value of showing his team on TV. Also, his nickname "Dollar Bill" stems from his days as a very frugal owner. Most of the Hawks' best free agents signed elsewhere in the 90s, and so began the quick decline of a once proud Original Six franchise.
 |
| Bill Wirtz: Great Businessman, Shitty Hockey Owner |
In both of these cases, I would not blame a Dallas Cowboys fan, nor would I have blamed a Blackhawks fan, for switching teams. If your management/ownership group show a lack of interest in remaining a competitive sports franchise by constantly spitting in the faces of its fan base with its baffling and incompetent moves, if they abandon you to the point where they don't even really care about you as fans anymore, then who's to say you HAVE to be loyal right back? Do you stay in relationships longer than you should because you don't want to be looked at as being unloyal? That's a dumb reason to stay in a relationship, just as it would be to stay a hardcore fan of a team when that team's owners/management eats a bunch of White Castles and shits all over your hopes on a yearly basis.
4. No more rules apply: I would say that moving to a new city would allow you to root for a new team, but I think this would only be acceptable if you moved from a city/town that had no franchise in a particular sport to one that did. Otherwise, you stick with whatever team you were rooting for before you moved (which is likely your hometown team as long as you're not a weirdo like me who roots for an out-of-market team in football - 49ers).
Here are some major no-no's for changing mid-stream:
- No bandwagon jumping. Even if the ownership clause applies here, you can't just ride the hot hand and root for what's in, at least not when you're an adult. Like I said before, kids are flaky sports fans. Let them weed out who they really want to root for. Once they make their decision (and none of the above exceptions of changing teams apply), they will be forced to pick a team and stick with them. This is only if you are currently rooting for a team. If you've never been interested in a sport before, I have no problem with you jumping on the wagon, especially of a local team, so as long as you don't jump onto another wagon soon after if your newfound team falls and fails.
Temporary fandom, if only for one night, (when a friend of yours might be rooting for the Niners to win the Super Bowl for example) is acceptable. Once that game or run of games is over, it's back to rooting strictly for your team. - No actively rooting for multiple teams and playing favorites with whatever one happens to be doing better at the time. I understand if there might be a franchise who you admire from afar and wish your team could model itself after, but you cannot do the multiple fandom thing and flip-flop between who you root for the most. Not allowed.
So to the Tims out there who are rooting for a team whose ownership has turned its back on loyal fans across the country, I say, "find a new team." Why should you continue to give your team love and support when the guys running the team don't return the favor? If I am going to remain emotionally invested in a team, it's going to be with a franchise whose owners and management will do whatever they can to make themselves a competitive franchise for years to come.
12/30/2012
Hot (and Then Not) & Week 17 Picks
The playoffs are a week away, which makes me simultaneously excited for the playoffs and disappointed that we are soon only 11 NFL games away from the end of the season.
In the past several weeks, we've heard a lot about some of the streaking teams in the NFL and how they may be the best teams in the NFL. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Week 17 and will likely make it 11 barring an act of God when they face Kansas City. With a win, they guarantee themselves a bye week and possibly a #1 seed if Houston manages to lose.
In the NFC, Washington, Green Bay & Seattle hold the longest win streaks of teams on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has has one of the best statistical three-week runs in the NFL this year en route to its 4-game win streak entering its finale against St. Louis. The Seahawks have won by an AVERAGE of 50-10 in their last three games. Granted, only one of those games was against a legit opponent (San Fran), but there has to be some credit given. I expect Seattle to win in Week 17 and enter the playoffs with a 5-game streak to end the year. Washington enters Week 17 on a 6-game tear and will make the playoffs if they make it seven by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Green Bay can ensure a bye by beating the Vikings.
All of this talk about "hot teams" entering the playoffs got me thinking: what's the trend of teams entering the playoffs (specifically, the teams that make the Super Bowl)? Is there a trend for teams to end the year on a long streak to make/win the Super Bowl?
I looked back at the past ten years to see how playoff teams from each conference fared at the end of the regular season to see if these long streaks carried over into January. Outside of one exception, the team who entered the playoffs on the longest winning streak has not won the Super Bowl (New England in 2003 is the only team in the past decade to have the longest win streak and win the title).
Here are some fun facts from my findings of the past 10 years:
KC +16 at Denver seems tempting - I don't think Denver is going to run up the score. Miami +10 seems like a good bet too - Belichick will likely bench starters at a certain point of their Week 17 game when they realize that they will not get a first-round bye. I don't think he cares if they fall to the fourth seed (in that spot, they'd face Indy, who they romped earlier this year) if they lost.
In the past several weeks, we've heard a lot about some of the streaking teams in the NFL and how they may be the best teams in the NFL. Denver is riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Week 17 and will likely make it 11 barring an act of God when they face Kansas City. With a win, they guarantee themselves a bye week and possibly a #1 seed if Houston manages to lose.
In the NFC, Washington, Green Bay & Seattle hold the longest win streaks of teams on the precipice of the playoffs. Seattle has has one of the best statistical three-week runs in the NFL this year en route to its 4-game win streak entering its finale against St. Louis. The Seahawks have won by an AVERAGE of 50-10 in their last three games. Granted, only one of those games was against a legit opponent (San Fran), but there has to be some credit given. I expect Seattle to win in Week 17 and enter the playoffs with a 5-game streak to end the year. Washington enters Week 17 on a 6-game tear and will make the playoffs if they make it seven by beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night. Green Bay can ensure a bye by beating the Vikings.
All of this talk about "hot teams" entering the playoffs got me thinking: what's the trend of teams entering the playoffs (specifically, the teams that make the Super Bowl)? Is there a trend for teams to end the year on a long streak to make/win the Super Bowl?
I looked back at the past ten years to see how playoff teams from each conference fared at the end of the regular season to see if these long streaks carried over into January. Outside of one exception, the team who entered the playoffs on the longest winning streak has not won the Super Bowl (New England in 2003 is the only team in the past decade to have the longest win streak and win the title).
Here are some fun facts from my findings of the past 10 years:
- Out of the 10 teams with the longest streak entering the playoffs, only three of those teams (NE '03, '07 & '11) even made the Super Bowl. There's been six teams who had at least a half-season winning streak (8+ wins) who didn't make the Super Bowl, including New Orleans last year.
- Out of the 20 conference champions, only 5 (25%) had the longest win-streak among their playoff conference counterparts. That means most teams who made it to the big game weren't the hottest team entering the playoffs.
- Super Bowl winners of the past 10 years have had the following streaks to end their years: won 12 (once), won 4 (once), won 2 (three times), won 1 (three times), lost 1 (once), lost 3 (once). While it doesn't necessarily pay to have a long win-streak to end the year, it seems as though something can be made of winning in the last week.
- Not related to the win streak thing, but it should be noted that out of the past seven Super Bowls, all but one of them has had a team who played in the Wild Card round - meaning that bye weeks don't seem to matter as much lately. Let's keep that in mind, Niners fans, should the Packers hold onto their 2nd seed. The only Super Bowl in this span containing teams that had byes was Indy vs. NO.
| AFC Champ | NFC Champ | Longest Win Streak entering playoffs (each conference) | |
| 2002 | Oakland (W2) | Tampa (W1) | Ten -5; NYG - 4 |
| 2003 | NE (W12) | Car (W3) | NE - 12; GB - 4 |
| 2004 | NE (W2) | Phil (L2) | Pitt - 14; Sea/StL/GB - 2 |
| 2005 | Pitt (W4) | Sea (L1) | Wash - 5; Pitt/Den - 4 |
| 2006 | Ind (W1) | Chi (L1) | SD - 10; Phil - 5 |
| 2007 | NE (W16) | NYG (L1) | NE - 16; Wash - 4 |
| 2008 | Pitt (W1) | Ariz (W1) | Ind - 9; Atl - 3 |
| 2009 | Ind (L2) | NO (L3) | SD - 11; Dal - 3 |
| 2010 | Pitt (W2) | GB (W2) | NE - 8; GB - 2 |
| 2011 | NE (W8) | NYG (W2) | NE - 8; NO - 8 |
| 2012 | ? | ? | Den - 10; Wash 6/GB & Sea 4 (entering Week 17) |
So what does this data tell us? I believe it's easy for us to go with what we've seen most recently and make a blanket judgment on what will happen in the playoffs, but recent history shows that teams riding long winning streaks have little-to-no-advantage entering the playoffs. And it's important to keep in mind that many of these teams with the longer streaks (Pitt, both SDs, NE in '10) lost home games in the playoffs.
Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.
Before you go and place Denver into the Super Bowl, be wary of the potential obstacles and history they face when entering the playoffs.
Week 17 Picks
I honestly don't like much that's on the menu.
For some reason, I'm believing in Dallas (+3.5) beating Washington this week. I'm also rooting on my Dallas 75/1 bet to win the Super Bowl to have some life entering January.
The other games that have an effect on the playoffs (GB -3.5 at Min, Chi -3 at Det), I have no read on.
KC +16 at Denver seems tempting - I don't think Denver is going to run up the score. Miami +10 seems like a good bet too - Belichick will likely bench starters at a certain point of their Week 17 game when they realize that they will not get a first-round bye. I don't think he cares if they fall to the fourth seed (in that spot, they'd face Indy, who they romped earlier this year) if they lost.
Tune in next week as I go to Vegas for my 30th birthday and make some bets while I'm there. I'll look to preview the NFL playoffs tomorrow night. I'm willing to bet one team from the Wild Card round will make the Super Bowl - just a matter of who.
10/12/2012
Rocktober: The Best Sports Month (and Week 6 Picks)
Yesterday was a very sad day for me to bury the remains of my World Series bets, and boy, did the Giants and Tigers help speed up that burial process by beating the Reds and Athletics, respectively.
It still doesn't change the fact that for me, this is my favorite month of sports. This month contains the start of the MLB playoffs, the start of conference play in college football and the initial separation of the pretenders and contenders in the NFL.
There's also the start of NBA training camp and for you hockey fans, the start of another great hockey season. Sorry hockey fans - from everything I've heard, it doesn't look good for this year. But I said the same thing about the NBA, and they got their act together for an abbreviated schedule. And for my friends (ok, friend) who watches and bets on the WNBA, you got their finals going on right now.
This month has just about every sport that Joe American gives a crap about. While my World Series bets didn't pan out (none of the six - yes....six - even made it to baseball's final four), I'll still be paying close attention. Hell, maybe I'll make a seventh bet and take my initial hunch entering the postseason (Detroit).
If you're a sports fan and don't like this month, I seriously doubt the sincerity of your enjoyment of sports.
NFL Picks for Week 6
Last week, I went 9-4 with my picks. Not all of them were posted - I've been doing a really shitty job of updating my picks. I'll try doing a better job of posting them, especially since I'm doing a little better as of late.
Bets won: StL +2, Ariz/StL Under 19 1H, Cle/NYG Over 43.5, KC +6, SF -10, NO/SD Over 53.5, NO/SD Over 27 1H, NYJ +10, Hou/NYJ Under 40.5
Bets lost: Cle +8, KC Money Line, Sea/Car Over 42.5, Jax +6 (oops on that one - big whiff)
For this week, here are my picks:
Fool's Gold 1 - Dallas +3.5 at Baltimore - People will think of these things (Dallas's last game, Baltimore's record and defensive reputation) and be willing to fork over their cash on Baltimore. Yes, Dallas took a dump on their home field a couple Monday nights ago against the Bears. But Baltimore isn't as good as their 4-1 record indicates. Outside of their first week game when they blew out Cincy, each of their last four games have come down to the final possession. Despite the points allowed per game (17.8, good for 7th in the league), their defense is fairly average (14th in yards per play, including 22nd in yards per pass attempt). Playing Kansas City, who somehow only mustered 6 points with 214 rushing yards, will help with that PPG. Dallas comes into the game rested and hungry for a win - take the points.
Fool's Gold 2 - Buffalo +4.5 at Arizona - One of the things I've learned over the years when it comes to gambling: when a team looks just so bad and pathetic over a couple week stretch, the very next week is a very good time to cash in on them. And by cashing on them, I mean actually betting them. Most people see Buffalo's last couple weeks (allowing 48.5 points & 600 yards A GAME), numbers that certainly scream to most that I should probably bet on the other team. That's usually the perfect time to strike. Arizona is not a true 4-1 team (after watching them last week, I'm convinced they will fade, likely to about .500 by year's end). Their offense is terrible. They'll be starting a third-string RB behind a crappy offensive line. Expect this to be an ugly game. In ugly games, I like to take the points. So yeah, take the points.
Other (possible) bets: GB +3.5, NYJ -3/3.5, Mia -4, Cin/Cle Over 43
NCAA Week 7
Tex Tech +4, Purdue -1, Pitt +3, Duke +10, Min +3.5
Good luck to everyone with their teams/picks this week. Enjoy another great October weekend of sports.
8/24/2012
Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: Dallas Cowboys
As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.
Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.
My inaugural dive into this blog series will start with some fans from the NFC East, including a confident fan predicting a repeat for his favorite team. I will feature "the other team" from the division first.
It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that the early 90s spawned a new era of Dallas Cowboys fans across the country. The trio of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin helped make the Cowboys "America's Team". The duo of Tim Wolf and Steve Kirchman came along to join the ride.
"Naturally and probably deservedly so, I got the fair weather label," Tim said. "I paid my dues and proved my worth through the Dave Campo/Quincy Carter era and through a lot of disappointing underachieving teams."
Neither one of them find it difficult being a fan of the Cowboys in a Bears market, although Tim said he expects some good-nature banter when he is showing off his Cowboys apparel at bars during games.
However, both of them don't really care for the Bears.
"I root against them because their fans are annoying", Steve said. "They think every year they'll win the Super Bowl, which is just plain stupid."
Tim's general rooting interest regarding the Bears is to root against them, which stems from arguments with friends and annoying local media coverage.
"A friend just recently told me I should just move to Dallas," he said. "To which I responded, I would have to listen to dumb homer Dallas fans."
No agreement existed between their all-time favorite Cowboys (Tim backs Emmitt, Steve is an Aikman guy) and favorite current player, with Tim a fan of Tony Romo and DeMarcus Ware, while Steve is high on Dez Bryant's future.
"I think he has potential to be a top wide receiver in the league for many years to come," he said.
Tim is projecting a 9-7 campaign for the Cowboys, while Steve is one game more optimistic.
Both Tim and Steve agree that there is nothing outside of winning a Super Bowl that could get the media to stop blaming Tony Romo for all of the team's woes.
"He could probably take them to the Super Bowl, throw for 400 yards, not turn the ball over, drive them down the field for a go-ahead score with 45 seconds left," Tim said, "and the defense gives it back and he would still get the blame, probably for leaving too much time on the clock."
Steve concurred.
"There is nothing else Romo can do to stop getting blamed for the team woes," he said. "He has to win a Super Bowl".
Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.
My inaugural dive into this blog series will start with some fans from the NFC East, including a confident fan predicting a repeat for his favorite team. I will feature "the other team" from the division first.
It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that the early 90s spawned a new era of Dallas Cowboys fans across the country. The trio of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin helped make the Cowboys "America's Team". The duo of Tim Wolf and Steve Kirchman came along to join the ride.
"Naturally and probably deservedly so, I got the fair weather label," Tim said. "I paid my dues and proved my worth through the Dave Campo/Quincy Carter era and through a lot of disappointing underachieving teams."
Neither one of them find it difficult being a fan of the Cowboys in a Bears market, although Tim said he expects some good-nature banter when he is showing off his Cowboys apparel at bars during games.
However, both of them don't really care for the Bears.
"I root against them because their fans are annoying", Steve said. "They think every year they'll win the Super Bowl, which is just plain stupid."
Tim's general rooting interest regarding the Bears is to root against them, which stems from arguments with friends and annoying local media coverage.
"A friend just recently told me I should just move to Dallas," he said. "To which I responded, I would have to listen to dumb homer Dallas fans."
No agreement existed between their all-time favorite Cowboys (Tim backs Emmitt, Steve is an Aikman guy) and favorite current player, with Tim a fan of Tony Romo and DeMarcus Ware, while Steve is high on Dez Bryant's future."I think he has potential to be a top wide receiver in the league for many years to come," he said.
Tim is projecting a 9-7 campaign for the Cowboys, while Steve is one game more optimistic.
Both Tim and Steve agree that there is nothing outside of winning a Super Bowl that could get the media to stop blaming Tony Romo for all of the team's woes.
"He could probably take them to the Super Bowl, throw for 400 yards, not turn the ball over, drive them down the field for a go-ahead score with 45 seconds left," Tim said, "and the defense gives it back and he would still get the blame, probably for leaving too much time on the clock."
Steve concurred.
"There is nothing else Romo can do to stop getting blamed for the team woes," he said. "He has to win a Super Bowl".
| Tim Wolf | Steve Kirchman | ||
| (whole life near Chicago) | (whole life near Chicago) | ||
| Favorite team | Cowboys | Cowboys | |
| A fan since… | early 90s | early 90s | |
| # of games attended | 2 (both in Dallas) | 1 (in Chicago) | |
| Choice of Team Consumption | DirecTV | DirecTV | |
| Favorite Player All-Time | Emmitt Smith | Troy Aikman | |
| Favorite Player Currently | Tony Romo (O) | Dez Bryant | |
| DeMarcus Ware (D) | |||
| 2012 Prediction | (9-7, out of playoffs) | (10-6, playoffs) | |
| Vegas Projection for team | 9 wins | 9 wins | |
| (as of 8-24-12) 5dimes.eu | |||
| Over/under? | Push | Over | |
| Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu | (+260) | (+260) | |
| Super Bowl odds | 20/1 (+2000) | 20/1 (+2000) | |
| (as of 8-24-12) - bovada.lv |
1/05/2012
Shooting the Star: How Jerry Jones Has Lost His Way (Plus Week 1 Playoff Picks)
I had a friend tell me a couple months ago that Jerry Jones was heading towards becoming the next Al Davis. I thought it was a good point at the time - now I think it's a fantastic point.
Earlier this week, Jerry Jones reiterated that he was going to stay the owner/president/general manager/vice lord/whatever titles I'm missing of the Dallas Cowboys.
Quoth the vice lord: "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way."
Good point, oh wise one.
Problem is, your team has one playoff win in the playoffs the past 15 years - only Detroit has had less playoff wins in the NFC in that time frame.
His dynasty was mostly inherited when he bought the Cowboys in 1989, at which point Dallas was on the precipice of its success thanks to the Hershel Walker trade. In case you don't know, Walker, a stud Cowboy running back at the time, was traded to the Vikings (along with 4 future draft picks) for 5 players and 8 (edited, wrote down 13 originally)!!! future draft picks.
A few of these guys did some stuff. You may have heard of Emmitt Smith. Possibly Darren Woodson. Alvin Harper for those of you who know Michael Irvin's compliment in the Super Bowl days.
Since their last Super Bowl, not much good has come from the Cowboys organization.
Here are the list of starting QBs since Aikman retired in 2000, according to Wiki:
Tony Romo (77 starts), Quincy Carter (31), Drew Bledsoe (22), Vinny Testaverde (15), Jon Kitna (9), Chad Hutchinson...remember him Bears fans? (9), Anthony Wright (3), Brad Johnson (3), Ryan Leaf (3), Clint Stoerner (2), Stephen McGee (1), Drew Henson (1).
All you need to know - Quincy Carter started nearly 2 seasons-worth of games since the last of the big Cowboys left. Better yet, their best quarterback (yes, he is their best QB since Aikman) -Romo - wasn't even a drafted player. Thank Sean Payton for bringing him into Dallas when he was the offensive coordinator there.
Back to the point...Jerry Jones should not be holding so many titles. If you see your coach (i.e. Mike Shannahan) or owner holding so many titles, it usually comes at the expense of the quality of the team. Shannahan has yet to have success outside of the Elway/Terrell Davis-era of the Broncos. The same thing happened with Al Davis, who had success early as an owner/general manager from the mid 60s till mid 80s but completely tailed off from the mid 90s until his death in 2011.
Sometimes, people take on too many roles within a company, and it ends up hurting the product. No one knows how these guys may have done with actual GMs in their bad stretches, but one could deduce that these guys should not have held on to their multiple roles at once.
But as any area of life with business goes, sometimes power gets the best of people. "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way" becomes the justification for staying in your multiple positions.
The business-owner in him, a man who swings his junk around as if he wants to win more than any other owner, should be ashamed for pretending the past 15 years of his business have been successful enough for him to keep things "exactly the same way".
Week 1 Playoff Picks
Houston -3 vs Cincy
NYG -3 vs Atl
Det +11 at NO (NO wins but doesn't cover)
Pitt -8 at Den
This sets up NO at SF, NYG at GB in the NFC; Hou at Balt & Pitt at NE. I could see 2-3 road teams winning in round 2 if this were the set-up.
Go Niners!
Earlier this week, Jerry Jones reiterated that he was going to stay the owner/president/general manager/vice lord/whatever titles I'm missing of the Dallas Cowboys.
Quoth the vice lord: "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way."
Good point, oh wise one.
Problem is, your team has one playoff win in the playoffs the past 15 years - only Detroit has had less playoff wins in the NFC in that time frame.
His dynasty was mostly inherited when he bought the Cowboys in 1989, at which point Dallas was on the precipice of its success thanks to the Hershel Walker trade. In case you don't know, Walker, a stud Cowboy running back at the time, was traded to the Vikings (along with 4 future draft picks) for 5 players and 8 (edited, wrote down 13 originally)!!! future draft picks.
A few of these guys did some stuff. You may have heard of Emmitt Smith. Possibly Darren Woodson. Alvin Harper for those of you who know Michael Irvin's compliment in the Super Bowl days.
Since their last Super Bowl, not much good has come from the Cowboys organization.
Here are the list of starting QBs since Aikman retired in 2000, according to Wiki:
Tony Romo (77 starts), Quincy Carter (31), Drew Bledsoe (22), Vinny Testaverde (15), Jon Kitna (9), Chad Hutchinson...remember him Bears fans? (9), Anthony Wright (3), Brad Johnson (3), Ryan Leaf (3), Clint Stoerner (2), Stephen McGee (1), Drew Henson (1).
All you need to know - Quincy Carter started nearly 2 seasons-worth of games since the last of the big Cowboys left. Better yet, their best quarterback (yes, he is their best QB since Aikman) -Romo - wasn't even a drafted player. Thank Sean Payton for bringing him into Dallas when he was the offensive coordinator there.
Back to the point...Jerry Jones should not be holding so many titles. If you see your coach (i.e. Mike Shannahan) or owner holding so many titles, it usually comes at the expense of the quality of the team. Shannahan has yet to have success outside of the Elway/Terrell Davis-era of the Broncos. The same thing happened with Al Davis, who had success early as an owner/general manager from the mid 60s till mid 80s but completely tailed off from the mid 90s until his death in 2011.
Sometimes, people take on too many roles within a company, and it ends up hurting the product. No one knows how these guys may have done with actual GMs in their bad stretches, but one could deduce that these guys should not have held on to their multiple roles at once.
But as any area of life with business goes, sometimes power gets the best of people. "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way" becomes the justification for staying in your multiple positions.
The business-owner in him, a man who swings his junk around as if he wants to win more than any other owner, should be ashamed for pretending the past 15 years of his business have been successful enough for him to keep things "exactly the same way".
Week 1 Playoff Picks
Houston -3 vs Cincy
NYG -3 vs Atl
Det +11 at NO (NO wins but doesn't cover)
Pitt -8 at Den
This sets up NO at SF, NYG at GB in the NFC; Hou at Balt & Pitt at NE. I could see 2-3 road teams winning in round 2 if this were the set-up.
Go Niners!
12/22/2011
No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl
In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
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