Week 1 Picks Go Here & Finalized Futures

NFL Time....finally!

Week 1
Den -7 (-115) - 1.38 to win 1.20 - W
Cle ML (-124) - 1.86 to win 1.50 - L
Car +3 (+102) - 0.50 to win 0.51  & Car ML (+150) - 0.50 to win 0.75 - L
NO -3 (-122) - 1.22 to win 1.00 - W
Oak +10.5 (-110) - 1.10 to win 1.00 - W
SF -4.5 (-105) - 1.26 to win 1.20 & SF -5 (-105) - 0.63 to win 0.60 (added to Twitter) - W
Dal -3 (-115) - 1.15 to win 1.00 - W
SD +5 (-109) - 1.635 to win 1.50 - W (added to Twitter)
SD ML (+200) - 0.5 to win 1.00 - L

(6-3, +4.14)

*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split (i.e. Carolina loses by 1 or 2 above). Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.


Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)

NFL 2013 - A New Betting Approach

They say that NFL predictions are like assholes - everyone has one. Not only do I have NFL predictions, but I'm also an asshole (not really, I'm a nice guy).

Back in June, I posted my way too early 2013 preview, which highlighted my love of both NFL teams in Ohio. Since my opinion hadn't changed on either the Bengals or the Browns, I decided to put money where my mouth is with both teams.

My first set of bets centered around the Bengals being +235 to win the AFC North (odds which have fallen to +185 since) along with their 30/1 Super Bowl odds. I am still pondering a bet on their Over 8.5 wins, but the juice has gotten really high - I'm looking to see either a drop in juice or perhaps an alternate over to bet that would cut the juice.

This weekend, I made my second set of bets. At the one and only Super Bowlek fantasy draft, I bet my friend that Cleveland will make the playoffs this season (at 2/1 odds, which I found out should have been 4/1...oh well). Then, while seeing that the site added odds on specific teams making the playoffs, I took Baltimore's odds of not making the playoffs (-105) as opposed to their under 8.5 wins. The only way I get screwed with this bet is if Baltimore makes the playoffs with an 8-8 record, which is highly unlikely to happen. Otherwise, I'm looking at a bet that will likely win/lose either way (and offers a little insurance if Baltimore goes 9-7/10-6 and misses the playoffs).

I am looking to make more future bets, which will be what I intend on focusing on the most this season.

Some others I am considering:

• St. Louis Over 7.5 wins
• Seattle Under 10.5 wins
• New Orleans Super Bowl odds at 20/1
• Jacksonville Over 5 wins
• Denver Under 11.5 wins
• Kansas City Over 7.5 wins
• Chicago Over 8.5 wins

I plan on narrowing these bets down a little after doing a little more schedule/injury research. I may also bet a couple of player props (i.e. rushing title winner).

I may take a shot on a few moderate division long-shots (Kansas City +570ish, StL +800, Carolina +475). In regards to this, I will be looking at early season schedule to see how likely odds are to shift one way or another on a weekly basis. Since 5dimes offers odds to win division on a weekly basis, you can likely get better odds if the team you think will win the division starts out with a loss or two, so if you can project this correctly, you can get yourself the best odds on the board.

I want the NFL to get here quick. Antsy to see how the Niners do in their first full year with Kaepernick. I am slightly worried about the wide receiver depth, but not really worried about the talent that Kaepernick possesses. I believe every team in the division improved, so no easy outs (I think Arians & Arizona will take a couple games in the division slate of games). 

The rambling has started, so it's time for me to call it a night. I will let y'all know about my finalized futures.

Peace.

Bets Made (updated 9/2/13):

Cincy to win AFC North (+235 - 7/28/13): 1.1 units to win 2.82 units
Cincy to win Super Bowl (30/1 - 8/16/13): 0.6 units to win 18 units
Baltimore NOT making playoffs (-105 - 8/26/13): 1.68 units to win 1.6 units
Dez Bryant leads league in receiving yards (+800 - 8/29/13): 0.9 units to win 7.2 units
Tampa Bay Under 7.5 wins (+125 - 9/2/13): 1.1 units to win 1.5 units
Carolina Over 7 wins/Cleveland Over 6 wins parlay (~+120 9/2/13): 1.6 units to win ~1.91 units

NFL Division by Division - Odds, Teams w/ Value & Pick

For about a month or so now, the wagering site 5dimes has had a variety of NFL odds up, including all of the divisions. If there's a story to be told from the division odds, it's that there is just as many hotly contested divisions as there is run-away winners (although we know that there's a good chance that one or two of these big favorites bombs out).

I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.

Odds as of 8/3/13

NFC North

GB -155
Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625


Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.


Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.

I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).

NFC East

NYG +215
Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425


Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.


Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.

NFC West

SF -105
Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400

Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.

Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?

NFC South

Atl +150
NO +170
TB +525
Car +650

Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.

Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.

AFC North

Pitt +170
Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770

Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?

1. Defense - Geno Atkins has Defensive Player of the Year potential while the defense as a whole has top 3 potential. Atkins anchors the best defensive line in the division, a line which includes Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (6 sacks). They bring back a secondary that allowed the 7th-least passing yards. Their linebacking core added James Harrison, who has lost a step but could be a veteran presence that pushes the defense to greater success.
2. Weakened rivals - Baltimore will miss the leadership of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed on defense. Joe Flacco will desperately miss the absence of Anquan Boldin & Dennis Pitta (Boldin to free agency, Pitta to injury). These two guys caught half of Flacco's 22 passing TDs in the regular season and 7 of his 11 TDs in the postseason. Torrey Smith is a deep threat, but is he capable of making up for the missing Boldin/Pitta connections? Jacoby Jones had a good Super Bowl, but overall not a guy you want as your #2. And while many expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, I'm not sold on their offense being able to do its share to win this division. Last year, they were in the bottom third in yards/play, thanks in large part to a 3.7 yards/carry. Will Le'Veon Bell help out? Perhaps, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to help.
3. Offense upgrades through the draft - Tyler Eifert will give Andy Dalton another tight end to throw it to (Jermaine Gresham being the other), which should help open up the field for A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has a chance to take the running back reigns from Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Either way, both moves add much-needed depth to the offense.

Side note - it seems very weird to see Cleveland at such low odds (for them anyways), especially when their O/U is projected for only 6. I have Cleveland as another of my surprise teams (playoffs potentially), taking into mind the Norv Turner factor. He may have sucked ass as coach, but I think there can be a Wade Philips-like effect. Philips sucked as coach, but like Turner, has always thrived in a coordinator role. Take a look at the AFC and try to find me surefire picks for the playoffs. Outside of New England & Denver in weaker divisions, you can't.

AFC East

NE -425
Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200

Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.

Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.

AFC West

Den -380
SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500

Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.

Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.

AFC South

Hou -265
Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300

Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.

Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.

Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.

B-Bo's 2013 (Way Way Too Early) NFL Preview

Every year, it seems like this blog comes earlier and earlier in the summer. And this year, it's technically before the Summer Solstice.

Why, it's the initial B-Bo Knows NFL preview blog, sponsored by (insert your company name here, I'm talking to you Cialis).

Initial thoughts of NFL entering this year...I may change this before the season, depending on injuries, etc.:

Teams that I expect to exceed their projected win totals by 2+ this year:

1. New Orleans - With Sean Payton returning to the helm, I expect the order to be restored in New Orleans. I'm expecting a first-round bye for the Saints and a return to the Super Bowl.

2. Carolina - Cam Newton got a lot of crap last year from the media for their poor start, but did not receive the proper credit for making the Panthers a competitive team down the stretch of 2012. I believe he will carry them into the playoffs in 2013.

3. Cleveland - While I don't believe Brandon Weeden will become a Pro-Bowl QB, I do think he will be a serviceable option for the Browns, and he has some decent skill guys around him on offense (Gordon, Little, Richardson), and what may be the quietest/best move of the offseason is Norv Turner hired as the team's offensive coordinator (dude can't coach a lick but is great as a coordinator, just like Wade Phillips). Their defense should be improved, as they focused their free agent spending and draft on that side of the ball. Call me crazy, but I think the Browns will make the playoffs this season. 

4. Cincy - Andy Dalton & AJ Green are establishing a great connection, and I believe this duo will ride the other's coattails to Hawaii for Pro Bowl appearances. They added a few pieces in the draft on the offensive side, and while they didn't do much on the defensive side as far as signings go, they got James Harrison for cheap. Plus, they had a strong defensive unit to begin with.

Teams that I expect to underachieve by at least 2 wins compared to their total:

1. Pittsburgh - I expect more regression from the Steelers before I expect a rise in wins. Big Ben seems like a 35-year old QB with all the wear-and-tear on his body. The strength of Pittsburgh is always the defense, and they were the best in terms of yards per play last year (4.6 yards/play), but it seems like most of their playmakers are on the wrong side of 30. This one is more of a hunch than anything and goes against the recent history of the Steelers.

2. Tampa Bay - I believe the NFC South will be the NFL's toughest division in 2013, so this is the main reason why I think Tampa will finish dead last and lower than their projected 7.5 wins by at least 2 games. I don't think the QB they have now (Freeman) is the answer, and while they have a Pro Bowler behind him in Doug Martin, recent trends show that running backs don't carry teams to success.

3. Indianapolis/Washington - I figured I'd liump these two together. Never before have the teams picking from #1 & #2 in the previous year's draft gone on to both make the playoffs. While I don't expect Luck & RG3 to regress too much, I do expect regression with both of their teams. The Colts were fortunate to finish 10-6 (Luck was turnover prone, they were outscored by their opponents last year). And my big question mark with the Redskins is whether RG3 is going to be rushed back too soon from his injury. I worry that the pressure that the media and fans put on Derrick Rose to return will be ten-fold for RG3, who rejuvinated a dead fanbase last year and is expected to build upon his rookie year with even higher expectations thanks to their division title.

I expect a lot of people to love both of these team's OVER total for wins, but I'm preaching the under for both teams, especially the Colts. Luck's magic down the stretch in games masked a lot of the problems that the Colts had on defense.

4. Minnesota - Another one of those cases where I think a team played over their heads and will have a regression to the mean. I'm a huge fan of All Day, but he literally carried this team to the playoffs last year. I don't think he can do it again without the help of Christian Ponder, who didn't really show himself to be much of a downfield threat. And missing Percy Harvin will not help matters.


Quick recap of my predictions by division:

AFC	NFC
North	North
Cin 11-5	Chi 10-6
Cle 9-7	GB 9-7
Balt 7-9	Det 9-7
Pitt 6-10	Min 5-11
South	South
Hou 11-5	NO 12-4
Indy 7-9	Car 10-6
Ten 6-10	Atl 9-7
Jax 5-11	TB 4-12
East	East
NE 12-4	NYG 10-6
NYJ 7-9	Phil 9-7
Mia 7-9	Dal 9-7
Buf 5-11	Wash 6-10
West	West
Den 10-6	SF 10-6
SD 9-7	Sea 9-7
KC 7-9	StL 8-8
Oak 4-12	Ariz 4-12

Playoff teams

AFC: (1) NE 12-4; (2) Cincy 11-5; (3) Hou 11-5; (4) Den 10-6; (5) SD 9-7; (6) Cle 9-7
NFC: (1) NO 12-4; (2) SF 10-6; (3) NYG 10-6; (4) Chi 10-6; (5) Car 10-6; (6) Sea 9-7

AFC Championship Game: Cincy over Den
NFC Championship Game: NO over SF

Super Bowl: NO over Cincy

For your information, here are the totals (as of 6/10/13) for each team, according to 5dimes (I have bolded what I think will be the side that comes in). I added some comments about my thoughts for each team below:

26002 ARI regular season wins under 5½

26004 ATL regular season wins under 10

26006 BAL regular season wins under 8½ - I expect regression here as well.

26008 BUF regular season wins under 6½

26009 CAR regular season wins over 7

26011 CHI regular season wins over 8½ - Trestman does wonders in first season at helm. 26013 CIN regular season wins over 8½ 26015 CLE regular season wins over 6 26017 DAL regular season wins over 8½ - As long as Jerry Jones is owner and Romo is QB, I am feeling 9-7 records for Dallas every year. 26020 DEN regular season wins under 11½ 26021 DET regular season wins over 8 - Reggie Bush - best pick-up in NFC North

26024 GB regular season wins under 10½

26025 HOU regular season wins over 10½

26028 IND regular season wins under 8½

26030 JAX regular season wins under 5

26032 KC regular season wins under 7½

26034 MIA regular season wins under 8

26036 MIN regular season wins under 7½

26037 NE regular season wins over 11½ - new year, same Patriots

26039 NOR regular season wins over 9

26041 NYG regular season wins over 9 - back to division champs status

26043 NYJ regular season wins over 6½

26046 OAK regular season wins under 5½

26047 PHI regular season wins over 7½ - Kelly surprises amid low expectations for the Eagles this year.

26050 PIT regular season wins under 9

26051 SD regular season wins over 7½

26054 SF regular season wins under 11½ - Crabtree will be difficult loss for offense at first, especially with how Kaepernick relied on him. With tougher division/schedule, I expect 9/10 wins.

26056 SEA regular season wins under 10½ - Like Luck/RG3, I expect some regression w/ Russell Wilson. Still should contend for divison.

26057 STL regular season wins over 7½ - I liked their draft/offseason moves. Dark horse for division title, pending Bradford's development.

26060 TB regular season wins under 7½

26062 TEN regular season wins under 6½

26064 WAS regular season wins under 8

I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks

Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.

Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.

And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.

A look back at my predictions:

As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.

I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).

To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.

My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det

Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.

Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.


2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)

Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:

AFC:

Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)

NFC:

Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)

Round 1:

Game by game

Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20

Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.

Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.

Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.

If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.

AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing

NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.

AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)

Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta

Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.

I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.

If I Ain't Broke, I'm Not Fixing It (Week 9 NFL)

Looks like this little system for the NFL is having some short term luck for me.

Last week's bets went 7-5, would have been much better if I made bets strictly along the lines of the system.

In short, as I mentioned last week, this system is built where you end up betting against teams who have either (a) won two games in a row against the spread by a significant margin - thus creating an inflated line that you can gain value betting the other team or (b) won 3 straight games against the spread. We'll call these guys Fade Material - since that's exactly what you'll want to do in that next game.

The latter (b) has been a cash cow, with teams going 1-10 in their fourth game if they've covered against the spread three in a row (Houston is the only team to cover 4 games in a row). I guess to figure out (a), you'd have to define what a significant amount is against the spread - I'd say exceeding the spread by an average of 14 points or more. Using this number, teams have gone 2-9 against the spread if they've covered their previous two games by an average of 14+ points. The Bears and Vikings are the only teams to record against the spread wins in these scenarios, with both teams losing their following game.

The other half of the system is the opposite (The Biggest Losers) - betting on teams who have had (a) multiple losses against the spread by a significant margin or (b) lost 3 straight games against the spread. In the case of (b), teams are 5-2-2 in that fourth game (Baltimore is the only team this year w/ a 5-game losing streak ATS). And using the same significant margin idea (2 losses in a row against the spread by an average of 14+), these teams bounce back to the tune of a 7-2 record.

Fade Material for Week 9

(a) Won two games in a row ATS by avg of 14+ - None, although Denver (Average ATS win of 13) is close and I'll be betting against them anyways (see below).

(b) Won three straight ATS - Detroit....Bet Jacksonville +4 (hard to do, I know)

Biggest Loser Material for Week 9

(a) Lost two game in a row by avg of 14+ - Unfortunately, no one fits this bill either. Kansas City did (lost previous two by average of 17 per game), but San Diego's streak (lost three straight) took precedence. Kansas City will be a bet next week.

(b) Lost three straight ATS - Cincy (+3.5), Baltimore (-3.5), SD -7 (won Thursday).

We'll see how this goes, but I'm optimistic that this system at least has some common sense behind it. It goes off the premises that people hate to bet teams that have looked like crap the past couple weeks (likely means they've lost ATS in those games), which gives that team a little bit more value in the next game or two. Likewise, if a team is playing so well that it looks like it can't lose, gamblers fall in love with that team and want to keep betting them (riding out the streak), thus making the point spread on them in the following week or two a little inflated, giving value to their opponent.

For this week's bets:

Fool's Gold (6-5 for the year)

Denver -3.5 at Cincy - Christ, how could anyone bet against Peyton Manning? Dude has been money this year, much better than anyone could have thought coming off of his 97th neck surgery in the past 2-3 years (number may be exaggerated). They're coming off a pair of impressive victories (huge 2nd half comeback against San Diego and a drubbing of New Orleans on Sunday Night Football). Meanwhile, Cincy has lost three straight overall (and against the spread, as you read above). They had a first quarter lead in all of those games, only to fail to win any of them. I expect them to play with a sense of desperation as they look to avoid falling completely out of the AFC North with a beat-up Ravens and potentially over-rated Steelers squad ahead of them (each playing road games). I think the Bengals will surprise the Broncos and take this game, but just to be safe, I'll take Cincy +3.5 (may bet the ML as well).

Other Bets: Baltimore -3.5, Jax +4, Dal +4

Considering: Car +3.5, Oak -1.5, Min +4

NCAA Outlook:

Finally had a decent Saturday. College ain't really my cup of tea this year, so tread lightly on following these.

Bets: California -4 (fading the major results of last week - Cal's big loss and Wash's impressive win against previously unbeaten Oregon St), Ariz State +4 (Oregon St will be proven a phony), OK State +8.5 (K State will be challenged), Iowa State +12.5 (let down for Oklahoma), Pitt +16.5 (let down for ND)

Considering: WV -5 & their Over (68), Florida -17

Check my Twitter for updated bets - these are subject to change.

Have a good weekend everyone, and good luck w/ your fantasy leagues/wagers and all that other crap.