A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.
More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.
The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?
So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?
On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.
When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.
If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?
Showing posts with label tony romo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tony romo. Show all posts
9/06/2013
These Things, I Know: NFL Thoughts Entering Week 1
Here are some random thoughts about the NFL that I know to be true heading into the 2013 season:
Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year
Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.
Week 1 Picks I like:
Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG
Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt
- People have already made up their minds on Jay Cutler. No level of success this year outside of a Super Bowl victory will be good enough for the people that already hate him (and even then, there will be a good share of detractors), mainly for non-football reasons - i.e. his personality and demeanor turn people off. My favorite thing about sports is how everyone becomes a certified psychologist and body language expert, as if something that a television presents to you without context (a guy sitting on the bench) is a good way to read a person's true thoughts or feelings.
Watch the reaction of Cutler after throwing an interception or getting off the field after a bad drive, and it's no different than when a top quarterback reams out his offensive line for missing a block or a receiver running the wrong pattern. But since it's a guy that hasn't succeeded in the league, the general reaction to Cutler's reaction is one of disgust. People call him petulant, a whiner, mopey, basically any adjective in the family of "immature guy who looks like he doesn't care".
I really hope he succeeds this year and shoves it in the face of the fans who hate him and clearly yearn for the days of Johnathan Quinn or Henry Burris behind center. - All of the above, change a few adjectives and names around, applies to Tony Romo.
- You can't say anything bad about Peyton Manning, not even his arm strength. Plus he makes funny commercials, furthering his positive image. Just makes me wonder how he would be perceived had he not had the pleasure of winning his only Super Bowl against the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears. Winning just one Super Bowl changes public perception on you forever.
- Some people should not be playing in fantasy football leagues.
Just caught something on NFL Network about a Monte Ball tweet posted after his teammate Peyton Manning shredded the Ravens in a 49-24 rout of the defending champs.
Ppl out there hot about their fantasy leagues 😂😂 😂😂! It's a process!
— Montee Ball (@MonteeBall) September 6, 2013
Here are some tweets I pulled up from people addressing Monte directly:
“@MonteeBall: Ppl out there hot about their fantasy leagues 😂😂 😂😂 It's a process!” fuck a process u better be in the end zone next week bruh
— Juan Juan (@2_Jaaaayz) September 6, 2013
Thanks @EricDecker87 and @MonteeBall for all your fantasy points!! #not your team had 49 points and neither of you can get ANYThese are just some of the tweets to see when looking up his Twitter handle. Some had your standard Internet tough-guy racist tweets, which I'd rather not promote here.
— Matt Kley (@MattKley27) September 6, 2013
The fact that there's people going out of their way to bother Ball about his fantasy football performance makes me question why a player would even bother having a Twitter in the first place. I know fantasy is a great way for the NFL to promote its product in a way that makes the fan feel like they have control over something NFL-related, as if they are virtual general managers of a team. But why, as a player, would you bother dealing with the pests when you fail to live up to some statistical expectation that is demanded of you? I think I would have to use the Block function (a fitting name for an NFL RB) a lot if I decided to join Twitter as an NFL caliber player. Sorry to say, I am not such a player. But I crush a lot.
Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year
Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.
Week 1 Picks I like:
Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG
Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt
7/09/2013
The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs
From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.
Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.
But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.
So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:
(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs
(4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs
So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.
Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.
But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.
So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:
- Those who have already won a Super Bowl
- Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
- Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
- Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title
(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs
- Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco
Notes: Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).
It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.
- Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
Notes: You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.
The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.
- Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
Notes: The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.
Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.
Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.
Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.
Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.
Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.
Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).
Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.
Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
(4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs
- Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
Notes: Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.
Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.
So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.
9/21/2012
NFL News & #BolekBestBets - NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4
Good afternoon NFL fans and betting buddies of mine.
I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.
Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:
I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.
Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:
- Overreaction to Week 1 gives way to Overreaction to Week 2. If you live in the Chicago Bears market, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Week 1 - Bears destroy Colts and they're Super Bowl bound. Week 2 - they lose to the Packers (last I checked, the Packers are pretty damn good) and now the world is falling. This happened with a few teams (Packers, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, etc). Odds are, your team that rotated wins and losses in Week 1 with differing performances in the games is probably not as good as their win and not as bad as their loss shows. Calm down, take a breath, and enjoy the rest of the season.
- Too much fluff on these sports shows. The fact that I heard that Eli threw for over 500 yards, which has only happened a handful of times in history, about 1000 times less than the last play spat between the coaches is pathetic. Why is so much time spent on stuff that has little/nothing to do with the outcome? Are we so dumb as sports fans that they're catering to our supposed need for this? I'd like to think most people I know are better than this. I care about results, what happened to get to those results (i.e. stats). I don't need TMZ-style analysis entering ESPN and other sports shows.
- If you got a ring, it don't mean a thing. Tom Brady yells at his offensive line. Peyton Manning yells at his offensive line. Aaron Rodgers yells at his offensive line. Jay Cutler yells at his offensive line. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Jay Cutler.
Peyton Manning makes a big mistake in a playoff game and throws a pick-6 to the Saints to help New Orleans seal their Super Bowl win years back. Despite having the best record in the past 7 years, Tom Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in that time. Tony Romo fumbles a field goal snap that costs his team a chance at winning a first round playoff game. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Tony Romo
I'm not saying these guys (Romo and Cutler) shouldn't get blame for the mistakes that they make, but please have some perspective and realize that these other guys make mistakes too. If Peyton hadn't beaten the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears to win his lone Super Bowl, his mistake against the Saints would have been the main story of the Super Bowl, not the Saints winning their first Super Bowl.
The media and general public tend to forgive the mistakes of QBs who have won Super Bowls. Keep in mind, there's only a handful of current QBs who have won a Super Bowl: Rodgers, both Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, Brees (six total QBs). Any QB not on this list who is considered good/great will eventually hear it from media/public if they fail to make the next step.
NCAA Week 4
K State +15
Baylor -8.5
Baylor -8.5
Temple +7.5
USC -16.5
NFL Week 3
Fool's Gold Pick (0-2 so far) Oakland +4
San Fran -6.5 (falling for the trap)
NE +2 (or ML)
Cle +3
Ariz +3.5
Dal -7.5
I'm out of Survivor League for Don after picking New England like a sucker. If I was still alive today, I'd pick Dallas this week.
I don't have updated records - but for NFL, I know they're bad. I won my under bet last night, so I'm hoping I can get some betting momentum heading into the next couple weeks.
Good luck to everyone this week on bets and fantasy.
2/03/2012
Judging Today's Crop of QBs (not named Tom or Peyton) & chances for HOF
I decided to break down the current worthy QBs in terms of their chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm currently working on another piece which shows that there is a correlation between making/winning Super Bowls & making the Hall of Fame as a QB.
I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.
Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.
Eli Manning
The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?
Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.
Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.
I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?
Current HOF verdict: IN
Drew Brees
Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.
Current HOF verdict: IN
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.
Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)
Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.
Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN
Tony Romo
There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).
Current HOF verdict: OUT
Philip Rivers
See above critique of Romo. OUT.
I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.
Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.
Eli Manning
The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?
Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.
Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.
I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?
Current HOF verdict: IN
Drew Brees
Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.
Current HOF verdict: IN
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.
Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)
Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.
Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN
Tony Romo
There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).
Current HOF verdict: OUT
Philip Rivers
See above critique of Romo. OUT.
1/05/2012
Shooting the Star: How Jerry Jones Has Lost His Way (Plus Week 1 Playoff Picks)
I had a friend tell me a couple months ago that Jerry Jones was heading towards becoming the next Al Davis. I thought it was a good point at the time - now I think it's a fantastic point.
Earlier this week, Jerry Jones reiterated that he was going to stay the owner/president/general manager/vice lord/whatever titles I'm missing of the Dallas Cowboys.
Quoth the vice lord: "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way."
Good point, oh wise one.
Problem is, your team has one playoff win in the playoffs the past 15 years - only Detroit has had less playoff wins in the NFC in that time frame.
His dynasty was mostly inherited when he bought the Cowboys in 1989, at which point Dallas was on the precipice of its success thanks to the Hershel Walker trade. In case you don't know, Walker, a stud Cowboy running back at the time, was traded to the Vikings (along with 4 future draft picks) for 5 players and 8 (edited, wrote down 13 originally)!!! future draft picks.
A few of these guys did some stuff. You may have heard of Emmitt Smith. Possibly Darren Woodson. Alvin Harper for those of you who know Michael Irvin's compliment in the Super Bowl days.
Since their last Super Bowl, not much good has come from the Cowboys organization.
Here are the list of starting QBs since Aikman retired in 2000, according to Wiki:
Tony Romo (77 starts), Quincy Carter (31), Drew Bledsoe (22), Vinny Testaverde (15), Jon Kitna (9), Chad Hutchinson...remember him Bears fans? (9), Anthony Wright (3), Brad Johnson (3), Ryan Leaf (3), Clint Stoerner (2), Stephen McGee (1), Drew Henson (1).
All you need to know - Quincy Carter started nearly 2 seasons-worth of games since the last of the big Cowboys left. Better yet, their best quarterback (yes, he is their best QB since Aikman) -Romo - wasn't even a drafted player. Thank Sean Payton for bringing him into Dallas when he was the offensive coordinator there.
Back to the point...Jerry Jones should not be holding so many titles. If you see your coach (i.e. Mike Shannahan) or owner holding so many titles, it usually comes at the expense of the quality of the team. Shannahan has yet to have success outside of the Elway/Terrell Davis-era of the Broncos. The same thing happened with Al Davis, who had success early as an owner/general manager from the mid 60s till mid 80s but completely tailed off from the mid 90s until his death in 2011.
Sometimes, people take on too many roles within a company, and it ends up hurting the product. No one knows how these guys may have done with actual GMs in their bad stretches, but one could deduce that these guys should not have held on to their multiple roles at once.
But as any area of life with business goes, sometimes power gets the best of people. "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way" becomes the justification for staying in your multiple positions.
The business-owner in him, a man who swings his junk around as if he wants to win more than any other owner, should be ashamed for pretending the past 15 years of his business have been successful enough for him to keep things "exactly the same way".
Week 1 Playoff Picks
Houston -3 vs Cincy
NYG -3 vs Atl
Det +11 at NO (NO wins but doesn't cover)
Pitt -8 at Den
This sets up NO at SF, NYG at GB in the NFC; Hou at Balt & Pitt at NE. I could see 2-3 road teams winning in round 2 if this were the set-up.
Go Niners!
Earlier this week, Jerry Jones reiterated that he was going to stay the owner/president/general manager/vice lord/whatever titles I'm missing of the Dallas Cowboys.
Quoth the vice lord: "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way."
Good point, oh wise one.
Problem is, your team has one playoff win in the playoffs the past 15 years - only Detroit has had less playoff wins in the NFC in that time frame.
His dynasty was mostly inherited when he bought the Cowboys in 1989, at which point Dallas was on the precipice of its success thanks to the Hershel Walker trade. In case you don't know, Walker, a stud Cowboy running back at the time, was traded to the Vikings (along with 4 future draft picks) for 5 players and 8 (edited, wrote down 13 originally)!!! future draft picks.
A few of these guys did some stuff. You may have heard of Emmitt Smith. Possibly Darren Woodson. Alvin Harper for those of you who know Michael Irvin's compliment in the Super Bowl days.
Since their last Super Bowl, not much good has come from the Cowboys organization.
Here are the list of starting QBs since Aikman retired in 2000, according to Wiki:
Tony Romo (77 starts), Quincy Carter (31), Drew Bledsoe (22), Vinny Testaverde (15), Jon Kitna (9), Chad Hutchinson...remember him Bears fans? (9), Anthony Wright (3), Brad Johnson (3), Ryan Leaf (3), Clint Stoerner (2), Stephen McGee (1), Drew Henson (1).
All you need to know - Quincy Carter started nearly 2 seasons-worth of games since the last of the big Cowboys left. Better yet, their best quarterback (yes, he is their best QB since Aikman) -Romo - wasn't even a drafted player. Thank Sean Payton for bringing him into Dallas when he was the offensive coordinator there.
Back to the point...Jerry Jones should not be holding so many titles. If you see your coach (i.e. Mike Shannahan) or owner holding so many titles, it usually comes at the expense of the quality of the team. Shannahan has yet to have success outside of the Elway/Terrell Davis-era of the Broncos. The same thing happened with Al Davis, who had success early as an owner/general manager from the mid 60s till mid 80s but completely tailed off from the mid 90s until his death in 2011.
Sometimes, people take on too many roles within a company, and it ends up hurting the product. No one knows how these guys may have done with actual GMs in their bad stretches, but one could deduce that these guys should not have held on to their multiple roles at once.
But as any area of life with business goes, sometimes power gets the best of people. "The facts are that I've spent 22 years doing this exactly the same way" becomes the justification for staying in your multiple positions.
The business-owner in him, a man who swings his junk around as if he wants to win more than any other owner, should be ashamed for pretending the past 15 years of his business have been successful enough for him to keep things "exactly the same way".
Week 1 Playoff Picks
Houston -3 vs Cincy
NYG -3 vs Atl
Det +11 at NO (NO wins but doesn't cover)
Pitt -8 at Den
This sets up NO at SF, NYG at GB in the NFC; Hou at Balt & Pitt at NE. I could see 2-3 road teams winning in round 2 if this were the set-up.
Go Niners!
9/22/2011
Tom Brady is Sexy, Other NFL Observations & Week 3 Thoughts
Another week in the books, another week on the horizon. Some thoughts came from my Week 2 observations:
The Best D in New England is BraDy
New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.
QBs should wear flags
The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them. That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.
The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.
Cam Newton - Too Much Love
I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.
Tony Romo - Too Much Hate
I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.
While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).
I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.
I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.
Fools Gold
Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)
Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.
Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5
NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6
More Week 3 picks:
Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.
Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5
Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)
Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.
Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)
The Best D in New England is BraDy
New England's strong offensive start (36.5 points/game) has helped mask what definitely isn't one of the strong defenses that we are used to from the New England dynasty. There's no questioning Brady's awesomeness, and he's clearly the best weapon there is in the NFL. I'd worry about NE's chances to win it all if I were the Patriots though. As the Jets showed in the playoffs last year, if you make Brady look average, the Pats don't have the defense they once did to carry them to the next level. For now, I'm sticking with my Packers pick.
QBs should wear flags
The late hits being called on QBs is nothing new, but through the first two weeks, some of these calls are borderline ridiculous at best and shows me that the NFL should just take the next logical step that they are going with this pampering of QBs and put flags on them. That way, at least you could justify all the flags that always end up surrounding the quarterback on a weekly basis.
The constant flags make it impossible for defensive players to do what they were taught to do their entire careers - hit people.
Cam Newton - Too Much Love
I'm not saying he doesn't deserve some love, but all these media outlets are doing their best Katie Morgan impressions on Cam right now. I'm impressed with his completion rate (62.7%) but I won't be on board with him until he cuts back on interceptions (4 so far). Obviously, the season is young AND he is a rookie - so there is clearly room for improvement. I do think he will be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback throughout his career. But remember, his team is 0-2 and in his case (unlike Brady's), averaging 400+ yards a game is probably not gonna be the formula that wins them games.
Tony Romo - Too Much Hate
I bet you didn't know this stat about Romo - he has the league's highest passer rating in the 4th quarter since 2006 (source: check it here - first posted on ESPN). You'd never know based on the media's non-Cam Newton love for Romo. Much like LeBron, Romo's personality rubs people the wrong way and seems to bring on the majority of his haters.
While Romo only has 1 playoff win (to 3 losses in the 4 pro seasons that he ended the season as starter - last year not included), he has the same number of Super Bowl wins as Philip Rivers, Michael Vick and Matt Ryan - who are three of the QBs considered to be among the elite of QBs in the NFL. Yet, you never hear about their inability to win in the playoffs or the big game - Rivers (3-4 record in 5 years of starting), Vick (2-3), Ryan (0-2 in 3 seasons).
I mention Super Bowl because that's what seems to be the only way people look at Romo's success. I think he is a top-10 quarterback in the league, but don't think he's top 5. Thus, I think people should stop looking at his career as a failure because of this.
I'll take him any day of the week on the Niners, especially with the guts he had to return against San Fran in Week 2 with his injured ribs and lungs.
Fools Gold
Last week: Tennessee easily covered the +6 against Baltimore; YTD: 2-0
(A quick explanation: Fools Gold is a game I highlight every week where a pointspread doesn't seem right and look to figure out why. In many cases, I will often bet against the bet that the general betting public will make)
Fools Gold Play of the Week: Arizona -3.5 at Seattle - Seattle couldn't have looked any more turdish in their back-to-back defeats to start the year against San Fran and Pittsburgh. Their offense has been offensive, and if they were playing any other team other than San Fran in Week 1, they would have lost that game by 24+. San Fran let Seattle stay in that game and only pulled away late because of Ted Ginn's returns.
Meanwhile, Arizona has played a few games down to the wire, holding on against Carolina before losing late in the game against the surprising 2-0 Redskins. Based on how each team has played, you'd think the line would be closer to Ariz -5 or 6 at least, but Seattle (no matter their personnel) plays well at home. The 12th man will get behind Seattle in their first home game of the season (and first home game since the upset against New Orleans last year) and Seattle wins an ugly game. Likely betting: Seattle +3.5
NFL Bets Last Week: 5-1-2, +$175 (Twitter shows my gambling updates the best - didn't bet KC last week, so check that out if interested @brianbolek)
YTD: 8-6-3 (lots of pushes this year so far, had none all of last year), -$6
More Week 3 picks:
Cin -3 (+105) vs. SF - already locked in. I see the Bengals winning this by a couple scores. They nearly pulled off the impressive feat of winning 2 road games to start the season despite low expectations. AJ Green has a performance that is a step below from Austin's the week before and Cincy wins by a couple scores.
NO -4 vs. Hou - Houston's first test this year. New Orleans' defense got back on track with a half dozen sacks of Cutler and will carry it over to this game. NO by 10. I think this one will be lower scoring than most people - might play the under as well.
KC +14.5 at SD - This is more of a system play than anything. Historically, teams who come off of two games where they get blown out will often cover in the third game. I don't have exact records, but just know this from gambling all these years and reading forums on the topic. Hoping to catch this around 15 or 15.5 but will be happy with 14.5.
Leans: Indy +10, Wash +5.5, Cle -2.5, Oak +3.5
Survivor pool pick for Week 3: Philadelphia (sticking with the home team system after considering New England)
Other picks will emerge from the heap of games I'm sure - likely some of the leans. To follow those, check out my twitter at www.twitter.com/brianbolek or in twitter-speak, @brianbolek.
Good luck to everyone's teams (fantasy, gambling and especially REAL teams!)
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