A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.
More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.
The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?
So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?
On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.
When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.
If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?
Showing posts with label denver broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label denver broncos. Show all posts
10/04/2013
The Week That Is (and Was) in Sports - (Sept 29 - Oct 5 Edition)
Random sports thoughts from the week that was and the weekend trickling in front of us:
1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.
There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.
A few things about this:
(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.
(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.
2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.
While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?
3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.
Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Beware the delicious fruit.
1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.
A huge man called me a cunt & said he was going to kick my ass so I told security. His chick is who threatened me & then attacked me.
— Dallas Latos (@DallasLatos) October 2, 2013
There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.
A few things about this:
(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.
(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.
2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.
While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?
3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.
Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Beware the delicious fruit.
9/05/2013
Week 1 Picks Go Here & Finalized Futures
NFL Time....finally!
Week 1
Den -7 (-115) - 1.38 to win 1.20 - W
Cle ML (-124) - 1.86 to win 1.50 - L
Car +3 (+102) - 0.50 to win 0.51 & Car ML (+150) - 0.50 to win 0.75 - L
NO -3 (-122) - 1.22 to win 1.00 - W
Oak +10.5 (-110) - 1.10 to win 1.00 - W
SF -4.5 (-105) - 1.26 to win 1.20 & SF -5 (-105) - 0.63 to win 0.60 (added to Twitter) - W
Dal -3 (-115) - 1.15 to win 1.00 - W
SD +5 (-109) - 1.635 to win 1.50 - W (added to Twitter)
SD ML (+200) - 0.5 to win 1.00 - L
(6-3, +4.14)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split (i.e. Carolina loses by 1 or 2 above). Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
Week 1
Den -7 (-115) - 1.38 to win 1.20 - W
Cle ML (-124) - 1.86 to win 1.50 - L
Car +3 (+102) - 0.50 to win 0.51 & Car ML (+150) - 0.50 to win 0.75 - L
NO -3 (-122) - 1.22 to win 1.00 - W
Oak +10.5 (-110) - 1.10 to win 1.00 - W
SF -4.5 (-105) - 1.26 to win 1.20 & SF -5 (-105) - 0.63 to win 0.60 (added to Twitter) - W
Dal -3 (-115) - 1.15 to win 1.00 - W
SD +5 (-109) - 1.635 to win 1.50 - W (added to Twitter)
SD ML (+200) - 0.5 to win 1.00 - L
(6-3, +4.14)
*Note - when making two different bets on same team, I will treat it as one win or one loss, unless the results split (i.e. Carolina loses by 1 or 2 above). Whether you agree with this or not should not matter any. The units won/lost is the important thing.
Futures
Cle to make playoffs (+420) - 0.6 to win 2.52 (9/5/13)
NO to win SB (18/1) - 0.4 to win 7.2 (9/5/13)
NO Over 9 wins (-145) - 1.45 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Dal Over 8.5 wins (-105) - 1.05 to win 1.00 (9/5/13)
Car Over 7 wins/Cle Over 6 wins parlay (~+120) - 1.6 to win ~1.98 (9/2/13)
TB Under 7.5 wins (+125) - 1.2 to win 1.5 (9/2/13)
Dez Bryant most receiving yards (+800) - 0.9 to win 7.2 (8/29/13)
Balt not making playoffs (-105) - 1.68 to win 1.6 (8/26/13)
Cin to win SB (30/1) - 0.6 to win 18 (8/16/13)
Cin to win AFC North (+235) - 1.2 to win 2.82 (7/28/13)
8/05/2013
NFL Division by Division - Odds, Teams w/ Value & Pick
For about a month or so now, the wagering site 5dimes has had a variety of NFL odds up, including all of the divisions. If there's a story to be told from the division odds, it's that there is just as many hotly contested divisions as there is run-away winners (although we know that there's a good chance that one or two of these big favorites bombs out).
I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.
Odds as of 8/3/13
Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625
Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.
Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.
I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).
Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425
Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.
Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.
Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400
Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.
Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?
NO +170
TB +525
Car +650
Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.
Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.
Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770
Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?
Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200
Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.
Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.
SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500
Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.
Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.
Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300
Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.
Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.
Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.
I wrote a season preview in June, which I have changed a little already and will slightly amend before the season starts.
Odds as of 8/3/13
NFC North
GB -155Chi +373
Min +600
Det +625
Value: I think value lies in both Chicago & Detroit. The Bears were in the division race for much of 2012, and I am starting to believe that Marc Trestman will boost their offense to new heights this season. In Motown, you have a team that is a year removed from a playoff appearance. They've added Reggie Bush, who should fit into the pass-happy offense perfectly. And not having the distraction of Titus Young from the onset should help a big deal.
Pick: Chicago. I don't trust Green Bay's defense. Not that I expect them to be as terrible as they looked in their playoff loss to the Niners, but I don't know how far Rodgers can carry them by himself. Also, is this the year where Rodgers might miss some time due to injury? He escaped injury last year despite getting sacked 51 times (NFL high). If the offensive line doesn't improve, the Packers could be a hit away from being a 7-9 team.
I think the Bears will take a big step this season under Trestman, who has had a track record (both as an NFL coordinator & CFL coach) as a great offensive mind. The defense should still be solid enough to carry them (defensively last year: top 5 in yards/play & top 3 in points allowed).
NFC East
NYG +215Dal +250
Wash +255
Phil +425
Value: Dallas. This is under the assumption that you believe that the Cowboys will be in the same position as they always seem to be the past couple years - a win away from winning the division, only to lose to the eventual NFC East champ. If that's the case (and you believe in history repeating itself), then backing Chip Kelly may be your best value, as his Eagles face the Cowboys in the Week 17 finale. In all honesty, the talent with Dallas always seems to be there. It's a matter of it all coming together.
Pick: NYG. This division seems to be as much of a toss-up as the odds indicate. Some might think the Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, but they still have a few playmakers that can thrive in a Chip Kelly system. I believe he's going to have a few wrinkles that open the eyes of his NFC East opponents. As far as my flipping of the proverbial four-sided coin, I think you'll see the Giants bounce back after a rough finish last season pushed them out of the playoffs. Cruz and a motivated Nicks (playing for his next contract, likely with another squad) will provide Eli all the weapons he needs, and David Wilson projects to fill in nicely for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming the former can learn to block and stay on the field. Why not the Redskins? I expect some regression, as this is what tends to happen with teams going from losing records to 10+ wins: (h/t Joe Fortenbaugh). Plus, RG3's health will always be a worry - he will have to learn when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, and when to walk out of bounds.
NFC West
SF -105Sea +110
Stl +925
Ari +3400
Value: By far, the best value in this division is St. Louis - might be the best value in NFL. Following a 4-1-1 campaign within the division last year, I believe the Rams will be just as tough (and will do better outside of the division than last year). If Bradford can maximize the talents of Tavon Austin and Richardson/Pead can fill the Stephen Jackson void, I don't see why they can't contend in this division (9-7/10-6 possible). The defense was middle-of-the-road last year, so any improvement there will help solidify this value.
Pick: San Francisco...although this might be more of a homer pick. Until Harbaugh doesn't win the NFC West, I will not pick against him. Seattle might be a smarter pick, but between both of these teams, they've lost a few playmakers that each was counting on for the 2013 season (Crabtree & Harvin). I can't wait to see these divisional match-ups. I will be intrigued to see how Wilson & Kaepernick will play as this is the first training camp that each of them entered as the unequivocal starter. Sophomore blues or sensations?
NFC South
Atl +150NO +170
TB +525
Car +650
Value: Maybe I'm a sucker for the second year in a row, but I think the Panthers once again have great value. They finished the season strong (wins in last 4 games) and were top 10 in yards per play and top half in yards allowed per play. Cam Newton looks to build on a deceptively good sophomore campaign (I say deceptive because based on all the critiques he got from the media, you would never know he finished with 3800+ passing yards, 700+ rushing & combined 27 TDs). Their success will be tied into how well their defense plays - I think they'll play well enough to be a 10 win team and make the playoffs.
Pick: New Orleans. Two words sell this pick for me - Sean Payton. I have New Orleans back to their machine-like ways (and I think they'll be respectable on defense). I think Atlanta will take a step back (9 or 10 wins). I have Carolina as a surprise playoff team. I'm not a believer in Tampa - perhaps Freeman, Jackson, Martin & Revis will humble me.
AFC North
Pitt +170Balt +230
Cin +235
Cle +770
Value and Pick: Cincinnati. Anyone who has been within earshot (or in the case of social media, within Twittershot) of me who watches football as much as me knows how high I am on Cincinnati this year. Why?
- Defense - Geno Atkins has Defensive Player of the Year potential while the defense as a whole has top 3 potential. Atkins anchors the best defensive line in the division, a line which includes Michael Johnson (11.5 sacks) and Carlos Dunlap (6 sacks). They bring back a secondary that allowed the 7th-least passing yards. Their linebacking core added James Harrison, who has lost a step but could be a veteran presence that pushes the defense to greater success.
- Weakened rivals - Baltimore will miss the leadership of Ray Lewis & Ed Reed on defense. Joe Flacco will desperately miss the absence of Anquan Boldin & Dennis Pitta (Boldin to free agency, Pitta to injury). These two guys caught half of Flacco's 22 passing TDs in the regular season and 7 of his 11 TDs in the postseason. Torrey Smith is a deep threat, but is he capable of making up for the missing Boldin/Pitta connections? Jacoby Jones had a good Super Bowl, but overall not a guy you want as your #2. And while many expect Pittsburgh to bounce back from a disappointing campaign, I'm not sold on their offense being able to do its share to win this division. Last year, they were in the bottom third in yards/play, thanks in large part to a 3.7 yards/carry. Will Le'Veon Bell help out? Perhaps, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to help.
- Offense upgrades through the draft - Tyler Eifert will give Andy Dalton another tight end to throw it to (Jermaine Gresham being the other), which should help open up the field for A.J. Green. Giovani Bernard has a chance to take the running back reigns from Benjarvis Green-Ellis. Either way, both moves add much-needed depth to the offense.
AFC East
NE -425Mia +400
NYJ +2000
Buf +2200
Value: None. If Miami was a little lower (like around +800/900), I would definitely suggest them as the value pick. Tannehill showed more promise in his first season than most people expected. While they lost Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller is the back that may be the fantasy sleeper of the year. Their defense will need to force more than 16 turnovers (4th lowest) if they wish to take away the AFC East crown from the Patriots.
Pick: New England. It is hard to forget about all of the distractions and injuries. It is also hard to forget that Tom Brady is starting the season without his top-5 receivers from last year. And that defense? Yikes. However, as long as Brady stays upright, the Patriots will take the division crown again. Expect career years from guys like Danny Amendola & Shane Vereen in the absence of these missing Brady targets.
AFC West
Den -380SD +750
KC +800
Oak +2500
Value: San Diego. Earlier in the offseason, I may have considered Kansas City for this pick. I started to think about the moves made, and the one I did not consider for the best made was the Chargers firing Norv Turner in favor of Mike McCoy. Not only do you get rid of a coach who has historically under-achieved with top talent while in San Diego, but you hire a coordinator whose team just got done whipping you around in the division last year. Having a new voice in Philip Rivers' ears may help provide a resurgence in the veteran quarterback's career. Danny Woodhead will give him a receiving target out of the backfield, and a full year with Danario Alexander lining opposite of Malcom Floyd should propel the offense that was near the bottom of the league last year. Ryan Mathews can help with this cause if he can finally live up to his potential.
Pick: Denver. With all of the above being said, Denver is still the team to beat in this division. You saw what happened last year when they added a legitimate quarterback to the fold. Manning developed quick chemistry with Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker. I am curious to see how the offensive line injuries, particularly at center, will affect Manning's performance. For now, I don't see a reason to downgrade them out of their well-deserved division favorite status.
AFC South
Hou -265Indy +270
Ten +875
Jax +3300
Value: None. Like the Dolphins, I'm not seeing good value at the Colts' current odds. They went 11-5 last year despite being outscored by 30 points. Their comeback wins severely masked their horrible defense (T-2nd worst 6.0 yards/play, only behind the Saints). And even their offense wasn't as efficient as advertised - bottom third in the league in yards per play (5.2 yards/play). While Andrew Luck should improve and is likely to be a perennial Pro Bowler, I just don't see how there isn't severe regression with the Colts this year. I'm smelling 6-10/7-9.
Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars are worthy of many words in this section.
Pick: Houston. They may have a problem advancing past the AFC Division Round, but Houston is the class of this division for the third year in a row. Arian Foster may see less carries, but he and Ben Tate will still provide the ground-and-pound attack for the Texans. DeAndre Hopkins will be a nice addition to the offense. And the defense, which was already solid, got smarter with the addition of Ed Reed. I can see this being the type of move that gets Houston past the AFC threshold and into the Super Bowl.
1/01/2013
I Spy(Gate) Another Championship: NFL Playoff Preview & A Look Back at My Preseason Picks
Playoffs are here - I'd say there were some mild surprises in Week 17.
Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.
And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.
A look back at my predictions:
As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.
I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).
To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.
My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det
Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.
Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.
2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)
Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:
AFC:
Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)
NFC:
Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)
Round 1:
Game by game
Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20
Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.
Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.
Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.
If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.
AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing
NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.
AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)
Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta
Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.
I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.
Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.
Houston falling to the three seed was a surprise, although they were limping to the finish. The Vikings making the big dance was a shock.
And for the first time in NFL history (according to a Rich Eisen tweet), the teams who had the top 2 picks in the previous year's draft (Indy & Washington) made the playoffs in the following season.
A look back at my predictions:
As you know, I like to hold myself accountable just as much as I like to brag when I got something right.
I got some things right and some things wrong (sounds like just about every prognosticator's words right there).
To take a look at all of my pre-season picks, click here.
My predictions for the AFC, in seed order: NE, Hou, Pitt, KC, Buffalo, Baltimore
My predictions for the NFC, in seed order: Phil, NO, Chi, SF, GB, Det
Actually, now that I look back on it, I got very little right and a lot wrong. I did make the guarantee that I'd miss on at least 6 of the teams (I missed on seeds 3-5 in the AFC and the top 3 seeds in the NFC - and Detroit), so I got that prediction right.
Mike Vick as the league MVP? I should be shot for that one. The only good prediction I made was Andrew Luck as offensive rookie of the year, but even that's not guaranteed and even that wasn't all that hard to project.
2012 Playoff Preview (Redux)
Without further ado, here's the playoff picture:
AFC:
Byes: Denver (1 seed), New England (2)
Wild Card matchups: Cincy (6) at Houston (3); Indy (5) at Balt (4)
NFC:
Byes: Atlanta (1), San Fran (2)
Wild Card matchups: Min (6) at Green Bay (3); Seattle (5) at Wash (4)
Round 1:
Game by game
Cincy/Hou: I can't remember the last time that teams faced each other in back-to-back playoffs in the first round. Cincy overtook Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enters the playoffs playing their best ball. Houston limped to the finish and has to be disappointed to be playing in the Wild Card round. Could Kubiak get canned if they lose in the first round? Gut feeling here - I think Houston takes care of business for the second year in a row. 27-20
Indy/Balt: Who would have thought Indy would bounce back this well? Despite being outscored by their opponents this year (thanks to blowout losses to New England and Chicago, among others), Indy was able to record an 11-5 record. Like Houston, Baltimore limped into the playoffs after a strong first half start. They are still a team to be taken seriously (at least for a round). Harbaugh is always good for at least one or two playoff wins. The Colts haven't really beaten any respectable teams on the road (lost all of their road games by double digits to teams who had winning records). I think Baltimore wins by double digits, 34-20.
Min/GB: This is probably my favorite game of the weekend for a couple reasons: (1) division rivalry game (2) featuring two teams who played two tight games this year (3) with two of the most explosive offensive pieces in the NFL (Rodgers and Peterson). Unlike their high scoring game that ended the season, I believe this will be a lower scoring game. I am calling this my upset of the weekend - Minnesota takes this one 23-20.
Sea/Wash: Seattle is in an unusual position as a road favorite, which has been earned based on their performance down the stretch. Not too often a team with a seven-game winning streak is an underdog at home, but here we are. I think the oddsmakers have this "Battle of the Rookie QBs" line right, and I expect Seattle to carry this game 24-17.
If these games are predicted right, this will be the bracket the rest of the way. The 3/6 winner determines the match-ups.
AFC:
Balt at Denver (line of around -7) - I have Denver advancing
Hou at New England (line of about 8.5) - I have New England advancing
NFC:
Min at Atl (Atlanta will be about 6/6.5 point favorites) - Like they have all year, Atlanta squeaks by.
Sea at SF (San Fran will be about 5/6 point favorites) - If Justin Smith isn't healthy entering this game and the Niners don't get their kicking game together, I believe a Seattle upset is very possible.
AFC Championship: New England over Denver (Denver would be a small favorite , -1.5)
NFC Championship: Atlanta over Seattle (Atlanta would be a -3/3.5 point favorite)
Super Bowl: New England over Atlanta
Note: This Super Bowl would be a rarity these days, with only one of the last 6 Super Bowls featuring two teams who had a bye facing each other.
I will likely be way off, but this is how I see the playoffs playing out. I'll be in Vegas in a few days to watch some of these games first-hand. My early leans while I'm there are Kansas State/Oregon under 75.5, Minnesota +7.5 and/or the under, Balt -6.5...still need to re-think the Houston and Seattle games.
Hope everyone had a happy and safe new year. Here's to a happy, healthy and wealthy 2013.
11/02/2012
If I Ain't Broke, I'm Not Fixing It (Week 9 NFL)
Looks like this little system for the NFL is having some short term luck for me.
Last week's bets went 7-5, would have been much better if I made bets strictly along the lines of the system.
In short, as I mentioned last week, this system is built where you end up betting against teams who have either (a) won two games in a row against the spread by a significant margin - thus creating an inflated line that you can gain value betting the other team or (b) won 3 straight games against the spread. We'll call these guys Fade Material - since that's exactly what you'll want to do in that next game.
The latter (b) has been a cash cow, with teams going 1-10 in their fourth game if they've covered against the spread three in a row (Houston is the only team to cover 4 games in a row). I guess to figure out (a), you'd have to define what a significant amount is against the spread - I'd say exceeding the spread by an average of 14 points or more. Using this number, teams have gone 2-9 against the spread if they've covered their previous two games by an average of 14+ points. The Bears and Vikings are the only teams to record against the spread wins in these scenarios, with both teams losing their following game.
The other half of the system is the opposite (The Biggest Losers) - betting on teams who have had (a) multiple losses against the spread by a significant margin or (b) lost 3 straight games against the spread. In the case of (b), teams are 5-2-2 in that fourth game (Baltimore is the only team this year w/ a 5-game losing streak ATS). And using the same significant margin idea (2 losses in a row against the spread by an average of 14+), these teams bounce back to the tune of a 7-2 record.
Fade Material for Week 9
(a) Won two games in a row ATS by avg of 14+ - None, although Denver (Average ATS win of 13) is close and I'll be betting against them anyways (see below).
(b) Won three straight ATS - Detroit....Bet Jacksonville +4 (hard to do, I know)
Biggest Loser Material for Week 9
(a) Lost two game in a row by avg of 14+ - Unfortunately, no one fits this bill either. Kansas City did (lost previous two by average of 17 per game), but San Diego's streak (lost three straight) took precedence. Kansas City will be a bet next week.
(b) Lost three straight ATS - Cincy (+3.5), Baltimore (-3.5), SD -7 (won Thursday).
We'll see how this goes, but I'm optimistic that this system at least has some common sense behind it. It goes off the premises that people hate to bet teams that have looked like crap the past couple weeks (likely means they've lost ATS in those games), which gives that team a little bit more value in the next game or two. Likewise, if a team is playing so well that it looks like it can't lose, gamblers fall in love with that team and want to keep betting them (riding out the streak), thus making the point spread on them in the following week or two a little inflated, giving value to their opponent.
For this week's bets:
Fool's Gold (6-5 for the year)
Denver -3.5 at Cincy - Christ, how could anyone bet against Peyton Manning? Dude has been money this year, much better than anyone could have thought coming off of his 97th neck surgery in the past 2-3 years (number may be exaggerated). They're coming off a pair of impressive victories (huge 2nd half comeback against San Diego and a drubbing of New Orleans on Sunday Night Football). Meanwhile, Cincy has lost three straight overall (and against the spread, as you read above). They had a first quarter lead in all of those games, only to fail to win any of them. I expect them to play with a sense of desperation as they look to avoid falling completely out of the AFC North with a beat-up Ravens and potentially over-rated Steelers squad ahead of them (each playing road games). I think the Bengals will surprise the Broncos and take this game, but just to be safe, I'll take Cincy +3.5 (may bet the ML as well).
Other Bets: Baltimore -3.5, Jax +4, Dal +4
Considering: Car +3.5, Oak -1.5, Min +4
NCAA Outlook:
Finally had a decent Saturday. College ain't really my cup of tea this year, so tread lightly on following these.
Bets: California -4 (fading the major results of last week - Cal's big loss and Wash's impressive win against previously unbeaten Oregon St), Ariz State +4 (Oregon St will be proven a phony), OK State +8.5 (K State will be challenged), Iowa State +12.5 (let down for Oklahoma), Pitt +16.5 (let down for ND)
Considering: WV -5 & their Over (68), Florida -17
Check my Twitter for updated bets - these are subject to change.
Have a good weekend everyone, and good luck w/ your fantasy leagues/wagers and all that other crap.
8/31/2012
Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: Denver Broncos
As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.
Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.
My fifth feature is on the Denver Broncos, the first of two AFC West fans that I found. Randy Whalen is a former work colleague who freelances for the Sun-Times Media Group covering high school sports. He has been a long-time Broncos fan, and I thank him for sharing his thoughts on the Broncos and how he became a fan of them.
Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Minnesota Vikings
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| Randy has been a fan of the Broncos for 36 years. |
In 1977, the Broncos were the last team standing in the way of the Raiders advancing to their second consecutive Super Bowl.
"I remember listening to the game on the radio and hoping and maybe even praying that Oakland would lose," Randy said. "The Broncos held on for a 20-17 win and went to the Super Bowl. They captured my imagination because they had never been there before."
Not that he's counting (ok, maybe he is), but Randy has been to a total of 37 Broncos games, which includes preseason, regular season and post-season. Including Denver (where he has attended 25 games), he has attended Broncos games in eight different cities, with Denver sporting a 23-13-1 record in those games.
"The memories would take volumes to go through," Randy said. "The best one was this past January when I was at the Broncos-Steelers Wild Card game where Tebow hit Thomas with the 80-yard TD on the first play of OT - pure joy and euphoria!"
He believes that Peyton Manning (his new favorite player on the Broncos) will make fans forget about Tim Tebow, provided Manning can stay healthy.
When he's not attending a game, Randy watches Broncos games at bars and has no problem following the team in a Chicago market, especially with the Internet and how much coverage the team has been getting this offseason.
Unlike some fans of out-of-town teams, you won't find him rooting against the hometown Bears though.
"I generally hope they win," Randy said, "except when they play one of my favorite teams, usually Denver or Pittsburgh. But I really don't care."
He also doesn't care for B-Bo Knows prediction of a 7-9, out of playoffs prediction for his team. Randy forecasts 11 wins and another AFC West division crown in Denver this season.
He won't say, perhaps out of caution, what the Broncos will do once they make the playoffs.
"The playoffs are wide open," Randy said.
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11/16/2011
Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term
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| Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term |
Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.
However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.
Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.
Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.
It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.
Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.
Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.
For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.
A-Rod's Stats:
Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.
It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.
That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.
To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.
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