Let these blogs keep a flowin'!
Big Ben hurt his team by playing on Monday Night. If any Bears fans had any wonders on why Jay Cutler didn't play through his injury, the proof of why it was good was shown in San Francisco, where Roethlisberger hobbled his way through a 20-3 drubbing to the Niners.
I'm sure his teammates called him a warrior for coming out there to try winning for them, but what good was he serving them when he was clearly affected by the injury? Nevermind the 330 yards passing - he was responsible for 4 turnovers.
Charlie Batch proved himself in a 4 game stretch during Ben's suspension last year, going 3-1 to keep the ship afloat for the Steelers to start the 2010 season. He may not be the best QB, but he's a solid backup and would have been a better option than Big Ben with his high ankle sprain.
If Cutler continued to play in the championship game with the injury he had and played like Big Ben did, he would have been dogged by everyone for being selfish and putting himself ahead of the team. Let's face it - a lot of the hate for Cutler that day stemmed from people's perception of his personality, which is a lot of times off-putting and anti-social. Not many people know of the charitable work Cutler does for kids with diabetes.
As sick as it sounds to say, especially seeing what we've seen the past month, but Hanie was a better option for the Bears at that juncture than Cutler. Ironically, Jay was being a team player by pulling himself out - Big Ben wasn't.
Yet you would think the opposite is true.
I enjoy seeing teams try even when they have nothing to play for. While I didn't watch a single down of the Colts/Texans games, all I need to see is the final score to know that the Colts weren't about to fold in the face of getting a #1 pick. After all, the 53 guys who suited up are all making at least 6 figures, and many of them are not guaranteed jobs beyond this year.
Playing for pride does some strange things for some of these players. From a less athletic perspective, I enjoyed playing the role of spoiler with my crappy fantasy football teams in hopes of eliminating teams from money spots. Granted, I know it's not the same. Even though I had nothing to play for, I knew that the integrity of the leagues are at stake if I don't try to win every week.
The same goes for professional sports - about 90 million times more so. I know it has to sting for the Colts to see their guys pulling out wins late in the season and risking a chance at not getting the #1 pick. As a football fan, I appreciate it when guys bust their asses on a weekly basis and show pride.
I'm thinking that Minnesota and St. Louis, who are the only teams who can over-take Indy, would probably pass on a QB even if Indy got another win. Especially StL, who is handcuffed to Bradford's contract.
Kudos to Indy for making this a possibility. I'm glad that there are some millionaire athletes who give a crap.
12/22/2011
No Coal Niners: Why SF Might Be Good Enough to Win the Super Bowl
In the spirit of my last blog on Belief, there is a sports-related item that relates to this subject. It would come as no surprise to most of you who have been following the NFL this year (and also know my team allegiance) to know who I am going to mention here (cough, San Francisco 49ers, sneeze).
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
Ok, now that the cat is out of the bag, I am believing in the Niners now more than a month ago.
I was waiting to see if the defense would continue to play at an elite level - they have. I was waiting to see if Alex Smith would regress into the 2005-2010 version of himself - he hasn't (yet).
Frank Gore continues to be an animal of a running back, reaching the 1K mark already and becoming the all-time leading rusher in Niners history. While Alex Smith's red-zone prowess could be improved (have you seen how bad the Niners are in the red-zone this year - geesh), he is not making the mistakes that have killed other teams. It's similar to Tebow in the "Don't Make Mistakes" mantra that each team's offense preaches, yet also similar to him in "We're Screwed If We're Trailing by 14+ and Need to Pass" concept too. I do think the Niners ask Smith to do more than Broncos ask TT to do - which cannot be ignored when you're looking at a quarterback's interception total.
But the main thing that has me Believing in the Niners is their defense, which has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year! And this isn't coming against weak rushing backs - they've faced 5 of the top 10 guys in overall rushing TDs (McCoy, Lynch, Wells-twice, Rice, Mendenhall). I really hope that they can negate Lynch this week and Stephen Jackson in Week 17 en route to a perfect season in that regard. Another stat that can't be ignored - that they've only allowed 43 (3 per game) first downs via the rush this season, which is 22 ahead of 2nd place Chicago and is almost half of the league average of 84.
Also on the defense, aside from perennial Pro-Bowlers Justin Smith (DT) and Patrick Willis (LB), we are seeing the emergence of Aldon Smith, a rookie from Missouri who I didn't really know much about - admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Big 12 action in the past couple years. Aldon has 13 sacks and is competing with Von Miller for Defensive Rookie of the Year - I think Miller still has the inside track.
Not to mention that the Niners have the best turnover margin (+21, one ahead of the Packers and a wide margin ahead of third place Patriots), and you can understand why I might be Believing more in the Niners than before (and Believing more than you). When your team can have an average of +1.5 in the turnover margin per game, your chances of winning any game are strong.
Finally, the most under-rated component of the team, the guy that makes it harder for teams to score, Andy Lee has lived up to his billing as an All-Pro punter. Aside from Shane Lechler, Lee has been the most consistent punter in the league for the past several years. He will likely be named to the Pro Bowl again and will be a key going forward if the Niners are to advance.
Possible playoff opponents
If they get a bye...
New Orleans - This seems like the only team they would play if they got a bye. New Orleans is so strong at home and I don't see them blowing a home game this year (last two games are at home vs. Atlanta and Carolina). Brees can tear apart just about any defense and throws interceptions in less than 2% of his passes - good for 6th in the league. While their defensive stats in terms of yards aren't terrible and could be a product of their offense getting off the field so quick, a couple of telling stats that say the Niners could win - Saints have forced a league-low 13 turnovers and allow almost 5 yards a rush (3rd worst). Gore and Kendall Hunter could expose that and turn the game into more of a grind-it-out game.
If we have to face the Saints in round two and they have home field, I don't like the Niners' chances. Totally different mindset if they get a bye. If the Saints somehow lose in the first round at home, we will be playing one of the teams below.
If they don't get a bye (they'd need to lose a game and the Saints need to win out)
Detroit - The Niners were the first of the Lions' losses this year, one in which "The Handshake" between Harbaugh and Schwartz is what the game is known for. However, it was the typical nature of a Niners game this year that led the Niners to the victory column once again - 203 rushing yards gained, only 66 allowed. Ironically, it was only the first time of two times (so far) that the Niners have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle (2-0). The Niners "contained" Calvin Johnson in that they didn't allow him to score on his 7 catch, 113 yard day. I think they would be able to match up well again versus the Lions and would bet them to win against them.
Atlanta - Atlanta has been a hard team to read this year, although they have come into their own as of late, winning 7 of 9. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner continue to be staples of the offense, and Julio Jones is finally starting to see the stat sheet a little more. This is the team I'd probably be most afraid of playing in the first round.
Dallas - The likelihood of Dallas winning the wild card seems small - I get the feeling that only the division winner (which could be them) of the NFC East is going to make it in. Nevertheless, the Cowboys already showed they can beat the Niners (and can pretty much beat any team if they play to their talent level). The reason I'd be less afraid of playing the Cowboys than the Falcons is the Cowboys' inability to close games out. I put them behind Atlanta in teams I'd least like to face in round 1.
Seattle/Ariz - As my blog mentioned a few weeks ago, I had Seattle as a sleeper team based on schedule set-up. I still think they have a shot but will need either Detroit or Atlanta to lose out (more likely in Detroit's case). I don't know if I can pull the trigger on it, but I like Seattle's chances against the Niners this week. I hope I'm wrong - and it may be my wanting of home field that keeps me from betting it. Arizona would also need to win out and have Atl/Det slip up twice. Week 17's matchup between these two might just end up being the wild card play-in game. In either case, I like our chances against either of these teams at home.
NYG - Like the Cowboys, I don't see the Giants winning the Wild Card. SF beat them at home earlier this year and I think they match up well against them. However, I wouldn't count Eli out in a road playoff game. He plays better on the road and is the most under-rated elite QB in the NFL.
If they advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay - Ahhhhhh, now we get to the good stuff. Assuming one of the above teams doesn't pull off an upset in the divisional round, this will be the likely home team in the NFC championship game. Not much needs to be said about them that hasn't already been said. Great offense, opportunistic defense (+20 turnover ratio), reigning Super Bowl champs. Despite their recent loss, they are still the class of the league. But as the Chiefs showed, the Packers can be beaten.
The real question - Can they be beaten at Lambeau? If the conditions are right (colder, windy), it may actually favor the Niners, who have a stronger ground attack. Also, the offensive line injuries that are starting to plague the Packers as of late cannot be ignored. With the pass rush that the Niners possess, they could be one of the few teams capable of giving Rodgers a hard time.
Money Where My Mouth Is
I won't go into breaking down the AFC opponents they could face, but I'd say the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are the most serious candidates, with the Texans as a sleeper.
To show how much I Believe in the Niners' chances, here's a little wager I just placed on them on 5dimes:
(can't get bet to copy/paste on this PC - It's San Fran - $50 to win $750 - 15/1 odds. 5dimes places them as the 6th most likely team to win it all)
The key is beating out the Saints, who have the best home field advantage in football. Regardless of outcome of Niners game, I will be rooting hard for the Falcons this Monday Night and hope they can beat their division rival.
In the season of Believing, I Believe in my favorite team to do some great things this winter.
Week 16 Bets
I've been bad at updating my blog/gambling info, although I keep a good record of it on my twitter (www.twitter.com/brianbolek).
Chi +13 at GB - Rivalry game + this game potentially being meaningless to the Packers if the Niners lose, and I found myself my favorite bet of the week. Already bet it.
NYJ -3 vs NYG - I know the Jets looked pathetic against the Eagles and recent history suggests they will go on another little streak of losses, but I like the Jets' personnel here.
Indy +7 vs. Hou - With a third-string QB, Texans have yet to crack past 20 points after getting 21 or more in 7 of their first 10 games. I think Indy wants to play the role of spoiler and will keep this close.
Believe
On this day off from work, one that I was planning on taking anyways but a mild fever of 100 would have probably made me call my boss anyways like a wuss, I feel compelled to write again.
I wish I gave myself the time to write these blogs more. I feel like I get rusty with writing when I go weeks at a time without writing.
Anyways, this blog is a seasonal topic - the topic of belief.
During this time of year, it seems to make all the difference in the world as to whether you Believe or not. When you still Believe, your innocence is maintained. When you still Believe, you KNOW the gifts that you open are from the man at the North Pole.
Believing in something or someone is what separates adults from kids at this time of year. I think I was about 11 or 12 when I questioned my Believing in these seasonal things to my parents. After all, the writing was on the chalkboard - I remember getting a chalkboard as a kid and can distinctly remember the style in which Santa wrote his message on the board. It was CLEARLY my dad's handwriting. But back then, I was too young to play the role of CSI on the chalkboard writing sample.
After the myth was revealed, it wasn't like I stopped enjoying Christmas. I have a family I love spending time with every year - both immediate and aunts/uncles/cousins. But there is a part of that Belief being wiped out that makes Christmas lose its childhood luster.
Nowadays, like most adults I know, I get way more out of giving gifts than getting them. With most people I buy for, I go based off of gut feeling on what they will like rather than a list. I think it's only fair - after all, I waited until about two days ago to write a list to my mom of what I wanted for Christmas.
I think my full renewal into Belief mode will be when I become a Papa. It seems to me that coming full-circle on the whole getting gifts as a kid to giving gifts to my kids will get the Belief spirit back into me. Having a kid who Believes will turn me back into a kid myself.
The innocence will be renewed, and the cycle of Belief will continue. When that time comes, I think these last few sentences will prove to be prophetic.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa and whatever holiday around this time I missed (oh yeah, Happy Boxing Day) to everyone I know!
I wish I gave myself the time to write these blogs more. I feel like I get rusty with writing when I go weeks at a time without writing.
Anyways, this blog is a seasonal topic - the topic of belief.
During this time of year, it seems to make all the difference in the world as to whether you Believe or not. When you still Believe, your innocence is maintained. When you still Believe, you KNOW the gifts that you open are from the man at the North Pole.
Believing in something or someone is what separates adults from kids at this time of year. I think I was about 11 or 12 when I questioned my Believing in these seasonal things to my parents. After all, the writing was on the chalkboard - I remember getting a chalkboard as a kid and can distinctly remember the style in which Santa wrote his message on the board. It was CLEARLY my dad's handwriting. But back then, I was too young to play the role of CSI on the chalkboard writing sample.
After the myth was revealed, it wasn't like I stopped enjoying Christmas. I have a family I love spending time with every year - both immediate and aunts/uncles/cousins. But there is a part of that Belief being wiped out that makes Christmas lose its childhood luster.
Nowadays, like most adults I know, I get way more out of giving gifts than getting them. With most people I buy for, I go based off of gut feeling on what they will like rather than a list. I think it's only fair - after all, I waited until about two days ago to write a list to my mom of what I wanted for Christmas.
I think my full renewal into Belief mode will be when I become a Papa. It seems to me that coming full-circle on the whole getting gifts as a kid to giving gifts to my kids will get the Belief spirit back into me. Having a kid who Believes will turn me back into a kid myself.
The innocence will be renewed, and the cycle of Belief will continue. When that time comes, I think these last few sentences will prove to be prophetic.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa and whatever holiday around this time I missed (oh yeah, Happy Boxing Day) to everyone I know!
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