7/10/2011

Dunn but Not Finished: Adam on the Eve of Returning to Normalcy

Statistics of a White Sox player at the All-Star break (named to an All-Star appearance once before):

.197 average, 5 HRs, 22 RBIs in 76 games played.

If you are not an active statistics follower and just happened to hear the previous sentence and statline presented to you, your answer would likely be Adam Dunn. You'd be wrong, of course.

Those statistics belong to none other than 5-time All-Star Paul Konerko in 2003. After producing All-Star worthy numbers the previous year (.304 average, 27 HRs, 104 RBIs), Konerko started terribly in 2003. In addition to the #s mentioned above, Paulie had a meek .267 on-base percentage (current career # is at .357), .300 slugging percentage (currently career at .502) and only 4 multi-RBI games.

Post All-Star #s were more in line with what you'd expect from Paulie. In 67 games to finish 2003, he batted .275 with 13 HR and 43 RBIs. His on-base percentage of .346 and slugging of .507, in addition to 13 multi-RBI games, were representative of the Paul Konerko that we've gotten used to on the South Side.
Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn - Tampa Bay Rays v Chicago White Sox
"The field of play is that way, not right behind you".



If we look at Dunn's statistics, we see a similar out-of-nowhere drop/dip in numbers. Entering the All-Star break, we see a man that is a far cry from his 35 HR, 88 RBI and .380 on-base percentage that he accumulated in an average season for his first 10 years in the National League.

As of blog posting time (7th inning of the Sox game to close the All-Star break), his current stats (.160 average, 9 HR, 34 RBIs and striking out about 1.5 times/game ~ 116 in 78 games) are pathetic to say the least. His on-base percentage of .292 is astounding considering his hitting woes. He still draws his share of walks (actually has more walks than hits: 46-43), but certainly not enough to make up for his lack of production at the plate. With Dunn, a .250 career average (as he has now) is what we Sox fans should expect, especially given his ability to draw walks and allow others behind him a chance to drive him in.

These bad numbers could be the result of an injury that we just don't know about. I doubt it's an issue of age, considering most guys can still have their peak years into their mid 30s - Dunn is 31. Paulie was only 27 when he had that horrible first half start, so he had a little bit of age on his side. Still, I don't think age has anything to do with it.

Could it be just a bad adjustment to becoming a full-time DH that is doing him in? If that's so, then we may be in more trouble in future years - since Konerko is not going anywhere and I doubt we'll be moving Dunn full-time to the outfield. I know certain guys can't be DHs since it takes them out of the game and has them stressing more about bad at-bats than if they had something like fielding to take their mind off of their hitting.

I'm hoping it's more or less just a half-season slump and we will see second-half numbers of around .250 average, 16 HRs and 40 RBI, with a better OBP as a result. I don't mind the strike outs (we knew we were getting those when we signed him), but they do need to drop if he's gonna be hitting more. If he is to produce numbers like that, his season stat line would be 25 HRs, 74 RBI, average around .200 - numbers that seem like a phantom at this point.

I'm gonna go out on a limb (yeah, like that's saying a lot) and say we'll see a better Adam Dunn in future years. This start for him is not representative of what he has accomplished in his career.