No, I'm not talking about the 4 lead changes in the last 3 minutes (a playoff first).
I'm also not talking about Alex Smith's squad besting a team led by the NFL-record holder of passing yards in a season.
I'm talking about Jim Harbaugh. Specifically, the pair of brass balls that he possessed at the end of the game to go for the touchdown.
Sure, it doesn't seem like much of a risk to the average person, especially with a timeout left in the team's pocket with 14 seconds left. However, with how much conservatism we are used to seeing in the NFL on a weekly basis, the chance of a ball getting picked off or turned over would be in the minds of many coaches. Many coaches within that range (14 yard line, down 3) would play it safe and kick the field goal to force overtime.
If Alex Smith throws a pick, analysts would pick apart why Harbaugh would call for such a risky play when overtime is well within reach with a short field goal and a Pro-Bowl kicker. Nevermind that the Niners have the least number of turnovers in the league this year. A play that goes against the ultra-conservative nature of the NFL would get Harbaugh lambasted if it backfires.
You may remember John Madden suggesting to Tom Brady & the Patriots to take a knee and play for overtime on their last drive in their upset against the Rams in 2002. With this line of thinking, Madden represents the crowd of people who suggest playing it safe versus going for the winner while it is in your control and risking the chance of loss.
There are several problems with this conservative line of thinking that make the Harbaugh-types seem rational:
- This assumes you can control your fate better when delaying the outcome of the game. Who is to say how the coin with flip in overtime? Even with the new rules, if the team who gets the ball scores the TD right away, the game is over. You don't think the Saints could score on the initial possession of OT easier than most?
- Sports are about winning, not avoiding loss. Unfortunately, too many guys will be uber-conservative and take the chance of losing through that route rather than risking blowing a lead or a chance of tying a game.
As any Niners fan remembers from that game, Favre got the ball back with plenty of time and found Greg Lewis in the back of the endzone much to the delight of the Metrodome crowd. Moments from being 3-0, Singletary didn't learn that the best way to win a game is when the ball is in your hands. On third and long, when a team can win a game with just one first down, a run is conceding control of winning the game. Especially against a hall-of-fame quarterback.
Take the opposite scenario: a few years back, the Patriots were holding onto a lead against the Colts and had a fourth and one in their own territory. I emphasize "holding onto" since the Colts had stormed back from a three-score deficit. About 30-31 coaches at that time would have punted the ball and taken their chances with stopping Peyton Manning one time with less than two minutes to spare.
However, Bellichick decided that he didn't want to take his chances with his defense against Peyton and instead went for it. Needless to say, they didn't convert; Peyton led the Colts on a short drive for a TD and Bellichick was raped in the press for going for it.
They failed to mention that a conversion would have sealed a Patriots victory. Also failed to mention that Peyton Manning is the other team's QB and was as automatic as they came at that time.
The "by-the-book" nature that many media & football personnel make moves like that (getting 1 yard to seal a win) seem absurd and yet allows guys like Singletary off the hook for running it three times with the ultimate intention of getting the team to burn three timeouts only to punt.
Let's give Harbaugh his credit for going for the win.
He showed that having a pair of brass ones is the best way to play.
