October 31st, 2009: Oh how I remember it oh so very clear. It was a sunny fall morning, and I had just placed a bet on Indiana (+17.5) for $100 on my favorite gambling site Bookmaker. I had twisted Tim's arm into betting it with me, so now I was doubly excited to see the fruits of my knowledge grow into profit for the day. I remember betting against Iowa because of their knack for keeping games close, regardless of opponent. Things started great, with Indiana jumping to a 21-7 lead at half on what turned out to be an incredibly windy day at the stadium. The lead peaked at 17 with an Indiana field goal early in the 3rd, but that was when things went completely bonkers. Mind you, I'm being spotted +17.5 so the lead is actually 34.5 (or just under 5 touchdowns). However, 5 touchdowns later, including a 29 yard rushing touchdown with a minute left on 3rd down for Iowa, led to one of the most heartbreaking losses in gambling history for me. Earlier in the week, I nearly suffered a heart attack when Miami (+6) blew a huge lead against New Orleans and ended up losing straight up by 12 after allowing a pick 6 with about a minute or two left. That cost me a ML bet I had on Miami and also a 3-4 team parlay in which the first legs of it already came in.
Lesson of the above story: Gambling is not for the faint of heart.
With that being said, let's see if I can avenge the ghosts of yesteryear and make some money with college football:
College week 9 with picks in (bold)...last week: 1-3 (including Thursday night game), -$125....YTD: 15-12-1, +$66
Mich St (+6.5) at Iowa: Michigan State just keeps on winning, their latest being an impressive comeback against Northwestern on the road. If MSU would have just blown out NU, I might be inclined they'd be in for a let down. However, a team who has done nothing but win so far shouldn't be getting 6.5 points i n a situation like this. I think MSU has a good chance to win this game, so I'll gladly take the points here. I consider this my strong bet of the day. It should be a close game either way and very well could be a defensive-based game.
Arizona (-9) at UCLA: By no means is this me betting against UCLA strictly based on a revenge factor. UCLA clearly did not trust their freshman quarterback against a very talented Oregon team, running the ball 47 times vs. 23 passes in a 60-13 drubbing. Normally when you start trailing by, I don't know, 2-3 scores, you start passing the ball, but not these guys. UCLA's strategy was that of a team that knows it sucks and can't be a two-dimensional offense. Meanwhile, Arizona possesses a top 30 offense and a top 10 defense. The only way AZ doesn't cover here is if they are looking ahead to their game at Stanford next week. I say Arizona shuts down the Bruins by 20.
Oklahoma State/Kansas State (Over 67): OK St. enters the game as the 2nd highest scoring team in the nation (48.3 points per game) while yielding 30.6 points and near the bottom of college football in passing yards allowed (286). KSU puts up 34 a game themselves while allowing a more modest 26/game. However, their 428 yards allowed/game suggest that Ok St. should be able to move the ball, with or without their top receiver. I expect this score to be in the high 70s.
I may or may not bet equal amounts on these games. I'll post totals of what I bet on each later tonight. I'm definitely liking Mich St the best. I had an Illinois write up all ready to convince myself to bet them, but (1) it felt like a homer bet, (2) Illinois may be due for a moderate let-down after a convincing homecoming win over Indiana and (3) 17 points is a lot to lay on a team that is fairly mediocre offensively.
Let's hope to avoid the Helloween misfortune from last year and make some money.
By the way, I'm going as Brett Favre to a costume party. I haven't decided yet about any of my decisions once I get to the party regarding food, alcohol consumption and whether I am going to textually harass anyone. Just assume the answer to all of those would be what you would expect.
Peace.
