I've procrastinated on my NFL betting blog, so I'll just go through all of my picks individually and say which ones I plan on betting:
Ind -3 at Jax - Took Jax - thought it would be a trap game for Indy. Wrong.
NYG -4 at Cin - May bet Cincy +4. This goes off of my betting system (Cincy hasn't covered in three straight games). Also, I think Cincy can take advantage of an over-rated NYG defense (NYG allows 6.1 yards per play - tied for fifth worst in the league. Bottom 5 in passing yards allowed/bottom 10 in rush yards allowed).
Ten +6 at Mia - Lean Miami (not sure how rusty Locker will be) but not going to bet this either way.
Det -2 at Min - Detroit has covered in four straight games, Minnesota has failed to cover in four straight. System play is Min +2.
Buf +11 at NE - Lean Buf +11. I think New England may relax a little against Buffalo, who is capable of scoring in bunches like NE. The Pats haven't covered their previous double digit spreads at home this year (lost straight up to Arizona and squeaked by NYJ in overtime).
Atl -2.5 at NO - I lean Atlanta -2.5 here. New Orleans was fortunate to escape their MNF game with a win (allowing only 6 points in 5 defensive red zone opportunities versus Philly). Their defense is horrible. Atlanta has something to prove still despite their perfect record.
SD +3 at TB - I lean SD +3 here. System play based on TB covering last two games by average of 14+. San Diego should be able to take advantage of TB's weak secondary (allowing 3rd-worst 7.5 yards/pass play).
Den -4 at Car - Ultimate trap/fool's gold game here. Denver's been rolling (three straight covers), which is exactly why this is a good time to fade them, especially with an important divisional game coming up. Carolina coming off of a couple decent performances (almost beat Chicago, beat down Washington). Should be a field goal game. Fool's Gold Pick: Car +4
Oak +7.5 at Balt - Lean Baltimore here, but you never know what kind of effort you'll get from Oakland. In year's past, this is a spot that Oakland comes up with a straight up win - wouldn't be shocked if they did.
NYJ +6 at Sea - I think the Jets will cover and have a good shot at winning. Rex Ryan has had a couple of weeks to prepare for a rookie QB. Seattle may win, but 6 points is too much.
Dal -1.5 at Phil - No touch game here. I'd lean Phil based on the no-covers in three straight system, but for this game, I don't want to test that out. Each team likes to shoot itself in the foot - hard to bet on teams like that.
Stl +11.5 at SF - SF has been a money machine at home in Harbaugh's stint w/ SF, but something tells me to lean St Louis here. System play here would be StL losing by average of 14+ in last two games. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team well-prepared after the bye.
Hou +1.5 at Chi - Liking Houston here. Only way Bears can win here IMO is to force several turnovers, which Houston has avoided well this year. Houston's D-Line vs. Bears O-Line will decide the game. I think this is a low-scoring game (17-13), with Houston winning. Is this the game where Chicago starts regressing a little? San Fran next on the schedule.
KC +12.5 at Pitt - System tells me to pick KC, especially since they're coming off of three straight double digit ATS losses and Pitt is on a 3 game ATS streak, but I may need 14+ points to take KC here.
Likely bets: Cin +4 (maybe Cin ML), SD +3, Car +4 (fool's gold pick), NYJ +6, Hou +1.5 (lots of dogs)
Still considering: Atl -2.5, Min +2
Good luck this week and have a good weekend.
Showing posts with label fool's gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fool's gold. Show all posts
11/10/2012
10/26/2012
Never Leave the Table When You're On a Heater - Week 8 Picks
It only took me three weeks of NFL to give myself a personal bye from gambling. It was that bad of a run.
After that week break, it only took me a couple weeks for me to finally say that I'm about to hit my in-season run of a lifetime.
With the help of a spreadsheet I've created that shows how much a team wins or loses against the spread on a weekly basis (thanks to Covers.com for the numbers), I've figured out a good way to find great spots to bet teams who are either coming off of two or three straight games where they don't cover or even better, fading teams who are riding 2/3 straight covers.
The bigger the covers, the more likely I fade them.
The bigger the losses, the more likely I bet them.
We'll see if it works, but I'm liking the results so far.
From Week 6 to Week 7 -
Houston goes from getting destroyed by the Packers (losing to the spread by 22) to winning by 23.5 against the spread against Baltimore (look to bet Baltimore in Week 9 - they've lost five straight games against the spread - the only team with more than three straight games without a cover).
Jacksonville lost two straight games against the spread by a total of 48 points. They get a bye week and an inflated line against a subpar Oakland squad who was spotting Jacksonville 6 points against the spread. Jacksonville holds the lead most of the game, blows it, but still covers the spread by a field goal.
Pittsburgh has a prime-time loss against the lowly Titans, giving the Steelers their third straight non-cover. In Week 7, they fell behind 14-3 against the Bengals but took over the game from the second quarter one and ended up winning and covering. Like Baltimore, I plan on betting Cincinnati after their Week 8 bye since they have failed to cover in three straight.
The Bears got a week to rest in Week 6 after three impressive wins (covered by an average of 17 points/game). They were covering most of the Detroit game but lost it on a touchdown with less than a minute left, allowing Detroit backers (like this guy) to cash in. Sure, the Bears could (and should) have covered it, but they didn't. And since they failed to cover by the slightest of margins, perception of them is still positive. I find a second-week fade of the Bears to be in the works.
I don't know if I've stumbled into something good to use for the rest of the year and perhaps in future years or if I'm over-thinking this stuff. It's worth a shot for now since I've taken a look at this year's data and saw that there's great value in fading teams with (1) a mini-streak against the spread or (2) coming off a couple huge wins against the spread. Likewise, while it may feel icky to bet crappy teams like Jacksonville to cover, betting teams who have racked up several bad losses in a row are likely to have a point spread that is more of a reflection of their recent streak than what the team actually is. Even if you gain a couple points based on this perception, you gain an advantage.
Week 9 Picks
Fool's Gold (5-4 record) - Pick 1 Car +7.5 at Chicago...You look at the line and you can't believe it. How is Carolina not a 10+ point dog to the Bears, considered by many to be a top-3 team in the league? After all, Carolina's offense is a mess/the Bear's defense capitalizes on team's mistakes like no other. The Bears have a good rushing attack and a QB who hasn't made as many mistake this year, save the Packer debacle. Some interesting stats between the two teams: Carolina (5.9 yards/play - T6th), Chicago (5.2 y/p - T23rd); Chicago D (4.9 y/p - T-3), Carolina (5.5 - T 17th). Both teams average more per play than they allow on defense. What this means, I don't know. Just really wanted to distract you from the fact that Carolina is my Pick in this Fool's Gold that is begging for Chicago money.
Pick 2 Atl at Phil (-3) - Say what? The league's remaining undefeated team is an underdog to a team who has limped to a 3-3 record, a team who hasn't won a game by more than two points? Both teams are coming off of a bye, but Andy Reid prepares as well on byes as he does on increasing the size of his thighs on a daily basis. Atlanta allows the 8th most yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are one of the better teams (5.1). I expect Vick to have his best game against the Falcons game (no turnovers). I also expect McCoy to have his best day of the year against the Falcons (only the Bills allow more than the Falcons' 5.2 per carry). Philly wins by two scores.
Other Picks: Det -1, Pitt -4.5 (Already bet TB +6.5)
Other Possibles: Dallas (if it gets up to 3+), Denver -6 (NO has had 3 straight covers), Mia +2 (NYJ has had 3 straight covers), KC -2
Limited NCAA leans: Penn St, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Nebraska. With my bad Saturdays lately, I'm looking to cut back. Feeling my NFL roll right now
After that week break, it only took me a couple weeks for me to finally say that I'm about to hit my in-season run of a lifetime.
With the help of a spreadsheet I've created that shows how much a team wins or loses against the spread on a weekly basis (thanks to Covers.com for the numbers), I've figured out a good way to find great spots to bet teams who are either coming off of two or three straight games where they don't cover or even better, fading teams who are riding 2/3 straight covers.
The bigger the covers, the more likely I fade them.
The bigger the losses, the more likely I bet them.
We'll see if it works, but I'm liking the results so far.
From Week 6 to Week 7 -
Houston goes from getting destroyed by the Packers (losing to the spread by 22) to winning by 23.5 against the spread against Baltimore (look to bet Baltimore in Week 9 - they've lost five straight games against the spread - the only team with more than three straight games without a cover).
Jacksonville lost two straight games against the spread by a total of 48 points. They get a bye week and an inflated line against a subpar Oakland squad who was spotting Jacksonville 6 points against the spread. Jacksonville holds the lead most of the game, blows it, but still covers the spread by a field goal.
Pittsburgh has a prime-time loss against the lowly Titans, giving the Steelers their third straight non-cover. In Week 7, they fell behind 14-3 against the Bengals but took over the game from the second quarter one and ended up winning and covering. Like Baltimore, I plan on betting Cincinnati after their Week 8 bye since they have failed to cover in three straight.
The Bears got a week to rest in Week 6 after three impressive wins (covered by an average of 17 points/game). They were covering most of the Detroit game but lost it on a touchdown with less than a minute left, allowing Detroit backers (like this guy) to cash in. Sure, the Bears could (and should) have covered it, but they didn't. And since they failed to cover by the slightest of margins, perception of them is still positive. I find a second-week fade of the Bears to be in the works.
I don't know if I've stumbled into something good to use for the rest of the year and perhaps in future years or if I'm over-thinking this stuff. It's worth a shot for now since I've taken a look at this year's data and saw that there's great value in fading teams with (1) a mini-streak against the spread or (2) coming off a couple huge wins against the spread. Likewise, while it may feel icky to bet crappy teams like Jacksonville to cover, betting teams who have racked up several bad losses in a row are likely to have a point spread that is more of a reflection of their recent streak than what the team actually is. Even if you gain a couple points based on this perception, you gain an advantage.
Week 9 Picks
Fool's Gold (5-4 record) - Pick 1 Car +7.5 at Chicago...You look at the line and you can't believe it. How is Carolina not a 10+ point dog to the Bears, considered by many to be a top-3 team in the league? After all, Carolina's offense is a mess/the Bear's defense capitalizes on team's mistakes like no other. The Bears have a good rushing attack and a QB who hasn't made as many mistake this year, save the Packer debacle. Some interesting stats between the two teams: Carolina (5.9 yards/play - T6th), Chicago (5.2 y/p - T23rd); Chicago D (4.9 y/p - T-3), Carolina (5.5 - T 17th). Both teams average more per play than they allow on defense. What this means, I don't know. Just really wanted to distract you from the fact that Carolina is my Pick in this Fool's Gold that is begging for Chicago money.
Pick 2 Atl at Phil (-3) - Say what? The league's remaining undefeated team is an underdog to a team who has limped to a 3-3 record, a team who hasn't won a game by more than two points? Both teams are coming off of a bye, but Andy Reid prepares as well on byes as he does on increasing the size of his thighs on a daily basis. Atlanta allows the 8th most yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are one of the better teams (5.1). I expect Vick to have his best game against the Falcons game (no turnovers). I also expect McCoy to have his best day of the year against the Falcons (only the Bills allow more than the Falcons' 5.2 per carry). Philly wins by two scores.
Other Picks: Det -1, Pitt -4.5 (Already bet TB +6.5)
Other Possibles: Dallas (if it gets up to 3+), Denver -6 (NO has had 3 straight covers), Mia +2 (NYJ has had 3 straight covers), KC -2
Limited NCAA leans: Penn St, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Nebraska. With my bad Saturdays lately, I'm looking to cut back. Feeling my NFL roll right now
10/19/2012
Even Mike Vick Wouldn't Fight These 'Dogs - Week 7 Picks
If you're a gambler and like most people I know who gamble, you usually like to bet favorites at a high rate. If you're doing that this year, you're doing yourself wrong. Way wrong.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
According to Covers.com, underdogs are covering at a record pace. If you blindly bet underdogs this year, your record would be 58-32-2 (including last night's amazing ending from a gambling perspective - I'll touch on that in a minute).
That is a percentage of over 64% - well above the necessary 52/53% mark you need to hit in order to profit (assuming you bet the same on every game). Most reasonable people would project that number will go down quite a bit (likely around 54-55%). With how much parity there is in the league, there's no telling that perhaps underdogs will still have some value for another couple weeks.
Yesterday's game featured another underdog (Seattle) covering a spread by the slightest of margins (spread started at 7 but closed anywhere between 7.5 and 9 points, depending on the book). The Niners didn't deserve to cover - but they almost did.
If you didn't see the ending, you missed out. The Seahawks were in desperation mode trailing 13-6, trying to score a miracle touchdown to force OT against the vaunted San Fran defense. On fourth down, backed into their own end zone, Russell Wilson completed a pass that was close to the first down, but an offensive penalty in the end zone caused the refs to throw a flag and rule the play a safety. Except....
Jim Harbaugh asked for a measurement of where the pass ended up. His logic - which is correct - was that if the Seahawks didn't convert the first down, the Niners would get the ball and be able to do one kneel down to end the game. Some might cry that the game was rigged and Harbaugh bet on the Seahawks, with the mindset that the Niners aren't going to lose anyways being up 9 (literally two scores) - and they're probably right.
However, the easiest path to a victory there was taking a knee and ending the game. You don't have to worry about any funny business, no matter how rare it could be. Your players won't have that extra opportunity to get injured. And you get the win, assuming the center-to-QB exchange doesn't get jacked up.
On to Week 7 NFL Picks
Fool's Gold Picks this year: 4-3 (3 straight covers - I think I'm eyeballing these better now)
Fool's Gold Pick 1: GB -5.5 at St Louis - Everyone is crowning Green Bay (once again) after an impressive throttling of previously undefeated Houston Texans. I attribute that to GB playing in desperation mode and Houston's defense coming out flat after a short week and a season-ending injury to stud linebacker Brian Cushing.
Now they go to face an under-rated Rams squad who continues to play teams close, losing by three to the Dolphins, which gave St. Louis its third straight cover. The Rams have played solid ball at home, beating three decent teams (Washington, Seattle, Arizona) straight up and like this game, were underdogs in all of those games.
Green Bay may win this game, but taking the points here is the smart move. This isn't the same GB squad of year's past. This team is a lot more inconsistent, exchanging loss/win pattern throughout the first six games of the year. Don't be a fool - take the points.
Fool's Gold Pick 2: NYG -6 vs. Washington - Wait...how could this be a bad pick? After all, the Giants just beat down on the 49ers, considered by many to be a favorite to make it to the Super Bowl this year. Last week's actual score should be a surprise, but the Giants winning shouldn't be. This is what the Giants under Eli Manning have done - they play up (or down) to their competition. When it comes to big games and the Giants are underdogs, it's always smart to take the Giants and the points. This isn't the spot to back them though.
Washington will play them tough. Hell, they beat the Giants twice last year - including a week after a similar spot for the Giants, who won an emotional game against the Cowboys in Week 14 only to follow that up with a stinker at home against the Redskins (lost 23-10). I don't necessarily think they'll stink up the joint like last year, but I do expect this to be a tougher game than many might think.
Take the dog. (Seems to be a theme here).
Other Bets I Am Considering: Jax +4 (may be hard to pull trigger), Det +6.5 (too high a number in division game), Ariz +6.5 (so Minnesota goes from +6.5 at home against SF to -6.5 against Arizona? San Fran isn't 13 points better than Arizona. Lots of value on Arizona), Cincy pick'em (Cincy's passing attack should shred depleted Pitt D)
College bets: Oklahoma St -14 over Iowa St, WVU -2.5 over Kansas State, BYU +13 over Notre Dame (might roll the dice on Tennessee +20 against Alabama)
Enjoy your weekend everyone.
10/04/2012
A Better Bettor: #BolekBestBets Returns! NFL Week 5
Sometimes you need a period of time to clear your head after a bad stretch of time in life or a major event that crushes you emotionally. My time to myself wasn't relating to a life-or-death topic, but it did require me to take a step back.
Of course, if you read last week, you'd know I'm referencing my gambling. I had to take a week away from it to reflect on how bad I did and what I can do to become a better bettor.
In my bad run, one thing I am proud of is that I did not "chase" (or bet bigger to "chase" the losses I had in the week) - otherwise, my bad run a few weeks ago would have been an ugly site. The double down theory is not a good one when you lose 21 of 26 bets in a week.
In my week off, I realized several things
(1) I need to become more disciplined. This means not always needing to bet something every day. This is typically a losing strategy for an inexperienced gambler who needs to create action every day. If you can find a good line, bet it. If you can't, lay off.
(2) Less bets might be better. Sometimes, I've been making bets on lines that I somewhat like when I should be focusing on lines that I really like or love. Being more selective should help me out.
(3) I don't need bets to enjoy NFL. Actually, I don't need fantasy football either, but I know that's not leaving my life anytime soon, so why fight it? Watching Week 4 of the NFL without a single wager was refreshing - I was actually able to enjoy the games on their own merit as opposed to rooting for particular outcomes. Even though I'm going back to wagering on some games, it makes me happy to say that I know I don't need gambling (or fantasy football) to enjoy NFL.
Note: Even though I may be down in my lifetime gambling, in the past couple years, I have made a concerted effort to become a better gambler and make it a very small part of my yearly income)
Without further ado, here's some lines that stick out this weekend and the games I'll be betting.
Balt at Kansas City +6 (Fools Gold Pick) - This game has Fool's Gold written all over it. If you look at KC's numbers, they have outgained their opponents in all four games. Their 1-3 record is more the result of a -13 (yes, -13) turnover differential. That's one of those stats that tends to even out at some point. I think KC will pull off the upset despite John Harbaugh's spotless record against the spread after an extended rest in his short coaching career. KC has a desperation feel to it too. I'll be betting this on Sunday.
StL +2 vs. Arizona - Game tonight. Just bet it. So far, NFC West teams are 8-0 (7-1 if you count the Seahawks "win" as a loss vs the Packers) at home this year. Cardinals escaped with a win last week to remain unbeaten, but the travel on a short week usually favors the home team, who didn't have to go anywhere Sunday night.
Cle +8.5 at NYG - I should have bet this when it opened at +10, but I was still in hiatus phase. I may lay off, but I think Cleveland is better than their 0-4 record shows. They impressed against Baltimore last week, with the game almost going into overtime had they completed a pass with no time left. Plus, NYG is coming off a tough divisional game and doesn't usually cover big spreads at home.
SF -9.5 vs. Buff - I'm playing emotional factor here as well. Buffalo has to feel decimated after feeling like they had the division lead and a 2-game cushion on the Patriots at the tip of their fingers. Dating back to last year, San Fran has won 9 of its last 10 home games (only loss was to NYG), with covers in all of the straight up victories. I look for San Fran to romp on Sunday.
Lines I'm looking at/considering: NO -4, Den +6
NCAA Week 6
Northwestern +2.5, Purdue +3, Ariz +9.5
NCAA Week 6
Northwestern +2.5, Purdue +3, Ariz +9.5
Have a good day and good luck with your teams/bets this week.
9/28/2012
Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5
Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.
There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.
Anywho....
I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.
I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.
After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.
It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.
It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.
Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.
It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.
I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.
I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.
In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.
Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.
Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.
It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).
Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.
The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.
The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.
Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.
Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.
Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.
Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".
Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.
The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.
The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.
Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.
Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.
Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.
Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".
There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.
Anywho....
As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen - but I won't be backing these myself.
NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11
NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).
Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5
Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.
Have a good weekend.
9/21/2012
NFL News & #BolekBestBets - NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4
Good afternoon NFL fans and betting buddies of mine.
I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.
Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:
I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.
Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:
- Overreaction to Week 1 gives way to Overreaction to Week 2. If you live in the Chicago Bears market, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Week 1 - Bears destroy Colts and they're Super Bowl bound. Week 2 - they lose to the Packers (last I checked, the Packers are pretty damn good) and now the world is falling. This happened with a few teams (Packers, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, etc). Odds are, your team that rotated wins and losses in Week 1 with differing performances in the games is probably not as good as their win and not as bad as their loss shows. Calm down, take a breath, and enjoy the rest of the season.
- Too much fluff on these sports shows. The fact that I heard that Eli threw for over 500 yards, which has only happened a handful of times in history, about 1000 times less than the last play spat between the coaches is pathetic. Why is so much time spent on stuff that has little/nothing to do with the outcome? Are we so dumb as sports fans that they're catering to our supposed need for this? I'd like to think most people I know are better than this. I care about results, what happened to get to those results (i.e. stats). I don't need TMZ-style analysis entering ESPN and other sports shows.
- If you got a ring, it don't mean a thing. Tom Brady yells at his offensive line. Peyton Manning yells at his offensive line. Aaron Rodgers yells at his offensive line. Jay Cutler yells at his offensive line. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Jay Cutler.
Peyton Manning makes a big mistake in a playoff game and throws a pick-6 to the Saints to help New Orleans seal their Super Bowl win years back. Despite having the best record in the past 7 years, Tom Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in that time. Tony Romo fumbles a field goal snap that costs his team a chance at winning a first round playoff game. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Tony Romo
I'm not saying these guys (Romo and Cutler) shouldn't get blame for the mistakes that they make, but please have some perspective and realize that these other guys make mistakes too. If Peyton hadn't beaten the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears to win his lone Super Bowl, his mistake against the Saints would have been the main story of the Super Bowl, not the Saints winning their first Super Bowl.
The media and general public tend to forgive the mistakes of QBs who have won Super Bowls. Keep in mind, there's only a handful of current QBs who have won a Super Bowl: Rodgers, both Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, Brees (six total QBs). Any QB not on this list who is considered good/great will eventually hear it from media/public if they fail to make the next step.
NCAA Week 4
K State +15
Baylor -8.5
Baylor -8.5
Temple +7.5
USC -16.5
NFL Week 3
Fool's Gold Pick (0-2 so far) Oakland +4
San Fran -6.5 (falling for the trap)
NE +2 (or ML)
Cle +3
Ariz +3.5
Dal -7.5
I'm out of Survivor League for Don after picking New England like a sucker. If I was still alive today, I'd pick Dallas this week.
I don't have updated records - but for NFL, I know they're bad. I won my under bet last night, so I'm hoping I can get some betting momentum heading into the next couple weeks.
Good luck to everyone this week on bets and fantasy.
9/14/2012
#BolekBestBets - NFL Week 2/NCAA Week 3
Week 2 NFL Theme - Redemption Song
Yikes!
I hope you didn't follow my bets from the blog last week, at least the NFL ones. I went 3-1 on the NCAA picks, but my overall NFL record was a perfect mess.
On the Sunday bets, I recorded an 0-6 record. I didn't end up betting the Colts (which was obviously a good thing).
Here's a rundown of my bets from Sunday and how bad they lost by the spread:
KC Moneyline (lost to Atlanta 40-24) -16
Ten +5 (lost to New England 34-13) -16
NO -8 (lost to Washington 40-32) - 16
GB -6 (lost to San Fran 30-22) - 14
Car/TB over 45.5 (26 combined points) - 19.5
Pitt/Den under 45 (50 combined points) - 5
If you average those out, I lost my bets by over two touchdowns PER BET. I admit it was easier to stomach being completely wrong on most of these than to squeak out losses on the games.
Luckily, MNF I was up a little bit, going 3-2 with my bets (won first half Cin/Balt over, SD/Oak under, SD in-game next-score; lost Cin +7, in-game Cin/Balt under).
The good thing is - I remain confident and am not just firing bets out there at random. No steam bets, no large wagers to chase losses, none of that shit. Too many times, I used to do that, only to dig myself a bigger hole.
Let's look at next week, shall we?
Fool's Gold - Week 2
Last week's fool's gold highlighted (or in retrospect, lowlighted) Tennessee Titans as having a good shot of covering/beating the Patriots, who much of the public was craving to bet. That, of course, is the theme of Fool's Gold. This is meant to highlight a particular game that the average Joe Public bettor thinks is "just too good of a line to pass up", only to realize he was wrong in his assessment.
Looks like my foolish ass was wrong in Week 1, but I look to change that in Week 2. There are several good candidates this week. I considered Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston; Seattle +3.5 vs. Dallas; and St Louis +3.5 vs. Washington, but this week, I want to highlight the ultimate Fool's Gold pick, a rare road underdog that has the love of the general public.
Baltimore enters Week 2 as a popular pick with Vegas spotting them 2 points against the Philadelphia Eagles, who struggled to beat a Cleveland Browns team considered by many to be one of the worst teams in the league. On paper, you're thinking, "What the hell? The Ravens are +2 after their impressive win on Monday Night Football versus a team who barely beat the Browns?"
Several reasons to reconsider your Ravens pick
Yikes!
 |
| Looking to sing the Redemption Song this week after a bad start to my NFL gambling in Week 1 |
I hope you didn't follow my bets from the blog last week, at least the NFL ones. I went 3-1 on the NCAA picks, but my overall NFL record was a perfect mess.
On the Sunday bets, I recorded an 0-6 record. I didn't end up betting the Colts (which was obviously a good thing).
Here's a rundown of my bets from Sunday and how bad they lost by the spread:
KC Moneyline (lost to Atlanta 40-24) -16
Ten +5 (lost to New England 34-13) -16
NO -8 (lost to Washington 40-32) - 16
GB -6 (lost to San Fran 30-22) - 14
Car/TB over 45.5 (26 combined points) - 19.5
Pitt/Den under 45 (50 combined points) - 5
If you average those out, I lost my bets by over two touchdowns PER BET. I admit it was easier to stomach being completely wrong on most of these than to squeak out losses on the games.
Luckily, MNF I was up a little bit, going 3-2 with my bets (won first half Cin/Balt over, SD/Oak under, SD in-game next-score; lost Cin +7, in-game Cin/Balt under).
The good thing is - I remain confident and am not just firing bets out there at random. No steam bets, no large wagers to chase losses, none of that shit. Too many times, I used to do that, only to dig myself a bigger hole.
Let's look at next week, shall we?
Fool's Gold - Week 2
 |
| All right, all right, all right! |
Looks like my foolish ass was wrong in Week 1, but I look to change that in Week 2. There are several good candidates this week. I considered Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston; Seattle +3.5 vs. Dallas; and St Louis +3.5 vs. Washington, but this week, I want to highlight the ultimate Fool's Gold pick, a rare road underdog that has the love of the general public.
Baltimore enters Week 2 as a popular pick with Vegas spotting them 2 points against the Philadelphia Eagles, who struggled to beat a Cleveland Browns team considered by many to be one of the worst teams in the league. On paper, you're thinking, "What the hell? The Ravens are +2 after their impressive win on Monday Night Football versus a team who barely beat the Browns?"
Several reasons to reconsider your Ravens pick
- Isolated Game Perception. The Ravens played under the lights of Monday Night Football, which definitely helps shape people's perspective than your average Sunday early game. This goes for any isolated game, which is the only game in town - thus, the average person is likely to consume that game than any particular game on Sunday before the NBC game. What you saw was the Ravens look great, and likely, all you saw of the Eagles game (unless you watched it on DirecTV) was the final score and the stats, which clearly disappointed you since you own a couple Eagles in fantasy football.
- Letdown Game. Similar theory to 1, except this includes the fact that last week, besides being Week 1 on MNF, was that it is a division game. I expect there to be a letdown playing an out-of-division foe (like the Ravens experienced in Week 2 last year after destroying the Steelers in Week 1).
- The Eagles are good. The Eagles aren't favorites for no reason. The Eagles were still in division contention last year despite their pitiful 4-8 start. Entering this year, they were considered the second or third best team in the NFC based on chance to make it to the Super Bowl. They got great talent at all of the skill positions. Vick is probably over-rated (not an elite QB), but he's still better than most QBs overall. They also have a pretty good defense. I attribute the offense's struggles in Week 1 more to the imbalance of the offense (2:1 pass/run ratio, despite having one of the most talented RBs in the league). I expect McCoy to get more carries this week, which should open up the pass game a little.
- Short Week for Ravens. Granted, this is probably one of the weaker reasons for backing the Eagles, but it could come into play.
Fool's Gold Pick: Philly -2 over Baltimore
Fool's Gold YTD: 0-1
Elimination Pool Pick: I forgot to add this feature last week. Week 1, I squeaked out a Detroit Lions win over the Rams. Week 2, I'm going with the lay-up pick: New England
Elimination Pool Pick(s) to Avoid: I believe that Dallas & Houston will be challenged this week.
Other NFL Week 2 Picks
Jax +7 vs Houston - Gabbert has a new "I may actually not suck" aura about him now. MJD should be sharper. I have a great gut feel for this one. May even take Jax money line.
Seattle +3.5 vs Dallas - Everyone is hammering the Cowboys after their impressive win in the league opener in Week 1 (possible isolated game perception by the public). Seattle is an improved team this year, plus their stadium, known for the 12th man for their loud crowd noise, is a hard place to place.
StL +3.5 vs. Wash - Who got the most coverage this past week in the NFL? RGIII. Who currently has one of the highest percentage of bets placed for this week? Washington. St. Louis had Detroit, a playoff team, on the ropes in their road opener. The Rams are an improved team (QB is healthy, experienced coach, good 2012 draft). I expect the public to be way wrong on this one.
Considering...Denver +3 at Atlanta; New Orleans/Carolina Over; KC +3 at Buffalo
Week 1: (4-9, -5.215 units)
NFL YTD: (5-11, -6.315 units) - includes GB/Chi bets
(Check my Twitter for my latest picks) @BrianBolek
NCAA Week 3 picks
Ohio State -16.5 over Cal - Urban Meyer is a covering monster in his coaching career for nonconference games (35-8 record - 81%). Plus, this is a really early game for Cal (9am Pacific time). I expect OSU to roll by 3+ scores. Already bet this (1.07 to win 1 unit)
Northwestern -3.5 over BC - Both teams are closing their non-conference schedules out. Both are coming off of impressive wins. I like NU's wins better (at Syracuse, who looked good against top-ranked USC, vs Vandy, who looked good against highly ranked South Carolina) compared to BC's only win last week. I'm gonna wait on this game and see if it goes down to -3 (always want to get the best line if possible). If not, I'll likely take it at -3.5 or 4.
UL-Monroe +16.5 over Auburn - Some people might be afraid that UL-Monroe was a fluke and could have a letdown here, but if you look at the stat sheet, they just flat out beat Arkansas everywhere (yards 550-377, first downs 30-21, almost a 2/1 possession ratio). I haven't seen Auburn play this year, but everything I've read/heard about Auburn is that they're just not that good this year. Auburn will likely win, but I think it will be a struggle.
UL-Monroe +16.5 over Auburn - Some people might be afraid that UL-Monroe was a fluke and could have a letdown here, but if you look at the stat sheet, they just flat out beat Arkansas everywhere (yards 550-377, first downs 30-21, almost a 2/1 possession ratio). I haven't seen Auburn play this year, but everything I've read/heard about Auburn is that they're just not that good this year. Auburn will likely win, but I think it will be a struggle.
Might add a few more NCAA games - haven't looked too closely at the schedule yet. I'll be at a family function tomorrow, so I may not bet too many games tomorrow outside of those.
Week 2: (3-1, +2.93 units)
NCAA YTD: (11-5, +6.035 units)
Football combined: (16-16, -0.28 units)
Enjoy the football weekend everyone.
9/07/2012
#BoleksBestBets - NFL Week 1/NCAA Week 2
Now that I just got done lecturing people with my latest blog on do's and don'ts of gambling, it's time to write one of my favorite blogs of the year - the first of many gambling features on NFL & NCAA. I'll try updating this as accurately as possible. I forgot to post a lot of my NCAA plays on Saturday, which of course pretty much all ended up winners.
NCAA gambling in week 1 started out terribly, as I lost my first 4 bets placed, including taking one on the chin when I backed Navy +14.5 against Notre Dame in their game played in Ireland. After that though, it was smooth sailing, as I closed out the rest of the gambling weekend with 8 straight wins.
Lost: South Carolina -6.5, South Carolina/Vandy Over 21.5 2nd half, Minnesota -9, Navy +14.5
Won: Ohio +6.5, NIU +7.5, Hawaii +42.5, Alabama -13, Oregon team total over 54.5 points, Oregon 2nd half team under 21.5, SMU/Baylor Over 57, Georgia Tech +7.5
Overall, I ended up 8-4, +310.50. I'll try keeping this up to date (win or lose). Hopefully most weekends, I'll be able to keep this updated. For most updated picks, best to check my Twitter: @BrianBolek
Largest Spread Ever
On 5dimes, you can bet on Savannah State vs. Florida State. Question is: do you feel comfortable betting on Florida State spotting its opponent 65.5 points? That's what the line is. At some places, the line is over 70. If for some reason you think this game will be decided by 66-70 points, then maybe you want to bet both sides of the game. If you're a sane gambler, you'll probably just avoid it.
NCAA Week 2
Purdue +14 at Notre Dame - Expecting a Notre Dame letdown after a successful overseas trip. Also, Purdue has a chance to be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Ask @BerserkHippo.
Penn St. +10 at Virginia- Penn St. looked bad in the second half against Ohio, but I think Ohio is better than people expected. This line in the preseason was at about Virginia -3, so to say that PSU got 7 points worse based on the players they lost and their Week 1 performance seems a bit much. From what I've read about Virginia, there's nothing special about them. I still think PSU will be about a 5-6 win team, and here, I think they keep it closer than the line says.
Oregon State +7 vs. Wisconsin - Playing the angle of non-conference game, travel cross country for Wisconsin. Big Ten teams tend to struggle in these situations.
Duke +15.5 at Stanford - This is more of a gut play. Plus, what Stanford showed in its opener is that it will struggle without Andrew Luck and company, while Duke, not exactly a powerhouse in its own right, but has bowl aspirations this season and opened the season on a strong note. They are led by potential pro prospect Sean Renfree, who is the ACC's active career leader in yards and completions. I think Duke keep it within two scores.
NFL Week 1
Dallas +3.5 & Dal/NYG Over 23.5 first half - Games already bet, but I split these bets (1-1, +48.50)
KC +3 vs Atlanta - KC is highly under-rated and has a great home field at Arrowhead. Injuries devastated them last year. If I am right, they will win the AFC West this year. This will be the first step.
GB -5 vs San Fran - Check out my 49ers Fan Federation Blog for detailed analysis on this. I think Packers start season off strong, motivated by sour taste in mouth based on last year's ending.
NO -7.5 vs. Washington - Lots of hype behind RG III, but I think it'll take some time for him to get acclimated to the NFL landscape. Plus, the Superdome is a rough place for a debut. Saints roll.
Indy +10 at Chicago - Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal, and he is a great candidate to beat Cam Newton's one-year old record of rookie passing yards in a season. The Bears had a poor secondary last year. While I think the Bears will win, I think it'll be by one score, not two. Don't be shocked if there's a backdoor cover (i.e. a late score by the Colts that helps them cover the spread).
NFL betting YTD (including Fool's Gold): 1-1, +48.50 (follow me on Twitter @BrianBolek for official bets, which may include additional bets than the ones mentioned here)
Fool's Gold Pick of the Week
Tennessee +5.5 vs. New England - Nothing seems right about this line. Tom Brady - the Tom Brady - isn't even spotting more than a touchdown to second-year starter Jake Locker? What gives? Like the Bears, the Patriots had a poor secondary, which allowed teams with decent attacks to stay in games. I think Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Kendall Wright are a sufficient trio and between them will get a couple of Jake Locker touchdowns in the opener. Brady should put up points, but I believe the Titans will too. Look for this to stay within a field goal, with a possibility of a Titans upset in Week 1. I think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so you should probably bet the Under.
Fool's Gold YTD: 0-0, $0
Enjoy the start of the NFL season.
NCAA gambling in week 1 started out terribly, as I lost my first 4 bets placed, including taking one on the chin when I backed Navy +14.5 against Notre Dame in their game played in Ireland. After that though, it was smooth sailing, as I closed out the rest of the gambling weekend with 8 straight wins.
Lost: South Carolina -6.5, South Carolina/Vandy Over 21.5 2nd half, Minnesota -9, Navy +14.5
Won: Ohio +6.5, NIU +7.5, Hawaii +42.5, Alabama -13, Oregon team total over 54.5 points, Oregon 2nd half team under 21.5, SMU/Baylor Over 57, Georgia Tech +7.5
Overall, I ended up 8-4, +310.50. I'll try keeping this up to date (win or lose). Hopefully most weekends, I'll be able to keep this updated. For most updated picks, best to check my Twitter: @BrianBolek
Largest Spread Ever
On 5dimes, you can bet on Savannah State vs. Florida State. Question is: do you feel comfortable betting on Florida State spotting its opponent 65.5 points? That's what the line is. At some places, the line is over 70. If for some reason you think this game will be decided by 66-70 points, then maybe you want to bet both sides of the game. If you're a sane gambler, you'll probably just avoid it.
NCAA Week 2
Purdue +14 at Notre Dame - Expecting a Notre Dame letdown after a successful overseas trip. Also, Purdue has a chance to be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Ask @BerserkHippo.
Penn St. +10 at Virginia- Penn St. looked bad in the second half against Ohio, but I think Ohio is better than people expected. This line in the preseason was at about Virginia -3, so to say that PSU got 7 points worse based on the players they lost and their Week 1 performance seems a bit much. From what I've read about Virginia, there's nothing special about them. I still think PSU will be about a 5-6 win team, and here, I think they keep it closer than the line says.
Oregon State +7 vs. Wisconsin - Playing the angle of non-conference game, travel cross country for Wisconsin. Big Ten teams tend to struggle in these situations.
Duke +15.5 at Stanford - This is more of a gut play. Plus, what Stanford showed in its opener is that it will struggle without Andrew Luck and company, while Duke, not exactly a powerhouse in its own right, but has bowl aspirations this season and opened the season on a strong note. They are led by potential pro prospect Sean Renfree, who is the ACC's active career leader in yards and completions. I think Duke keep it within two scores.
NFL Week 1
Dallas +3.5 & Dal/NYG Over 23.5 first half - Games already bet, but I split these bets (1-1, +48.50)
KC +3 vs Atlanta - KC is highly under-rated and has a great home field at Arrowhead. Injuries devastated them last year. If I am right, they will win the AFC West this year. This will be the first step.
GB -5 vs San Fran - Check out my 49ers Fan Federation Blog for detailed analysis on this. I think Packers start season off strong, motivated by sour taste in mouth based on last year's ending.
NO -7.5 vs. Washington - Lots of hype behind RG III, but I think it'll take some time for him to get acclimated to the NFL landscape. Plus, the Superdome is a rough place for a debut. Saints roll.
Indy +10 at Chicago - Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal, and he is a great candidate to beat Cam Newton's one-year old record of rookie passing yards in a season. The Bears had a poor secondary last year. While I think the Bears will win, I think it'll be by one score, not two. Don't be shocked if there's a backdoor cover (i.e. a late score by the Colts that helps them cover the spread).
NFL betting YTD (including Fool's Gold): 1-1, +48.50 (follow me on Twitter @BrianBolek for official bets, which may include additional bets than the ones mentioned here)
Fool's Gold Pick of the Week
Tennessee +5.5 vs. New England - Nothing seems right about this line. Tom Brady - the Tom Brady - isn't even spotting more than a touchdown to second-year starter Jake Locker? What gives? Like the Bears, the Patriots had a poor secondary, which allowed teams with decent attacks to stay in games. I think Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Kendall Wright are a sufficient trio and between them will get a couple of Jake Locker touchdowns in the opener. Brady should put up points, but I believe the Titans will too. Look for this to stay within a field goal, with a possibility of a Titans upset in Week 1. I think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so you should probably bet the Under.
Fool's Gold YTD: 0-0, $0
Enjoy the start of the NFL season.
B List - Gambling Dos & Donts (List 15)
It's been a few weeks without a B List. My apologies to those who were looking forward to that as a weekly feature. It should be back on, but it may be more sports related as I am amped up about football season being back.
As I prepare for the 9,000 fantasy leagues I've entered, I am also getting ready to start my favorite gambling season of all - NFL & NCAA gambling.
I know many friends of mine who are casual gamblers, some of them are more of the daily type of gamblers - you all know who you are, damn degenerates. In this B List, I'll focus on some of my personal do's and don'ts when it comes to gambling. I've gotten better at following most/all of these, but there are times where the degenerate in me comes out and I piss away my money.
Enjoy.
7. Do some research. It sounds simple, but it's an important part of gambling. It can be something as simple as reading a couple of pre-game stories or studying the injury report or as complicated as studying gambling trends of the teams in the game. I haven't found a specific routine when I study before a bet. With baseball, I like to use stats I find on baseball-reference.com. Also, SportsInsights.com offers free betting information that shows you what sites offer what lines and how heavily each team/side is being bet.
Occasionally, I will go with a gut pick, and obviously Week 1 picks are based on hunches, as we haven't seen the current ensemble of players play together in a meaningful game. As you've seen more games from a team, you should have a better idea on how a team will play together.
6. Don't bet if you are the type to get mentally/physically ill from losing money. Whether you bet just $5 or $100, if you can't handle losing, then I suggest not betting. Gambling is not for the faint of heart. When you do this as long as I have, you'll encounter some messed up losses and unreal wins. Anyone can handle the wins, but not everyone can handle the losses. If you're one of those folks, never gamble.
5. Don't bet with your heart. Too many people I know bet on their favorite teams, many of them blindly. Long term, this isn't a good approach. Your judgement on whether your team will win or not will usually err on the side of "win". If you're a real fan of the team, watching the game without betting on it should be good enough without adding the extra stress of wagering money on them to cover the 10 point spread.
4. Do expect to win if you gamble. Don't look at it as gambling - look at it as sports investing. Entering the gambling world with a little bit of confidence is good, but just don't expect to win every single bet. At the same time, don't bet if you've got the mindset, "I'm likely to piss this money away."
3. Do set limits for yourself. If you make 200-300 bucks a week, you probably shouldn't be gambling as much as someone who makes closer to a grand. I've heard different theories on how much of your bankroll you should risk on every game, but don't make a habit of risking anything close to what you make in a week. You're just asking for broken legs from bookies and/or really crappy
2. Do not chase losses. If your early bet lost, don't feel compelled to bet on a later game that you had no intention of betting just to try cancelling out the loss from earlier. This usually results in losing double the amount of money for the day, as you'll usually just end up making a bet for the sake of betting.
1. Do take a closer look at gambling lines that seem like "Locks". In case you hadn't noticed, Vegas and other places who rely on gambling revenue for survival don't just hand money out. If you see a line that makes you think they're handing you free money, maybe you should take a closer look at it. You're likely missing some key factors in why the line is lower than what you think it should be. Some folks frown upon this, but I often end up betting against what the general public bets. My weekly gambling column features "Fool's Gold", which highlights a line that seems too good to be true and usually has a high volume of public bettors betting on it.
As I prepare for the 9,000 fantasy leagues I've entered, I am also getting ready to start my favorite gambling season of all - NFL & NCAA gambling.
I know many friends of mine who are casual gamblers, some of them are more of the daily type of gamblers - you all know who you are, damn degenerates. In this B List, I'll focus on some of my personal do's and don'ts when it comes to gambling. I've gotten better at following most/all of these, but there are times where the degenerate in me comes out and I piss away my money.
Enjoy.
7. Do some research. It sounds simple, but it's an important part of gambling. It can be something as simple as reading a couple of pre-game stories or studying the injury report or as complicated as studying gambling trends of the teams in the game. I haven't found a specific routine when I study before a bet. With baseball, I like to use stats I find on baseball-reference.com. Also, SportsInsights.com offers free betting information that shows you what sites offer what lines and how heavily each team/side is being bet.
Occasionally, I will go with a gut pick, and obviously Week 1 picks are based on hunches, as we haven't seen the current ensemble of players play together in a meaningful game. As you've seen more games from a team, you should have a better idea on how a team will play together.
6. Don't bet if you are the type to get mentally/physically ill from losing money. Whether you bet just $5 or $100, if you can't handle losing, then I suggest not betting. Gambling is not for the faint of heart. When you do this as long as I have, you'll encounter some messed up losses and unreal wins. Anyone can handle the wins, but not everyone can handle the losses. If you're one of those folks, never gamble.
5. Don't bet with your heart. Too many people I know bet on their favorite teams, many of them blindly. Long term, this isn't a good approach. Your judgement on whether your team will win or not will usually err on the side of "win". If you're a real fan of the team, watching the game without betting on it should be good enough without adding the extra stress of wagering money on them to cover the 10 point spread.
4. Do expect to win if you gamble. Don't look at it as gambling - look at it as sports investing. Entering the gambling world with a little bit of confidence is good, but just don't expect to win every single bet. At the same time, don't bet if you've got the mindset, "I'm likely to piss this money away."
3. Do set limits for yourself. If you make 200-300 bucks a week, you probably shouldn't be gambling as much as someone who makes closer to a grand. I've heard different theories on how much of your bankroll you should risk on every game, but don't make a habit of risking anything close to what you make in a week. You're just asking for broken legs from bookies and/or really crappy
2. Do not chase losses. If your early bet lost, don't feel compelled to bet on a later game that you had no intention of betting just to try cancelling out the loss from earlier. This usually results in losing double the amount of money for the day, as you'll usually just end up making a bet for the sake of betting.
1. Do take a closer look at gambling lines that seem like "Locks". In case you hadn't noticed, Vegas and other places who rely on gambling revenue for survival don't just hand money out. If you see a line that makes you think they're handing you free money, maybe you should take a closer look at it. You're likely missing some key factors in why the line is lower than what you think it should be. Some folks frown upon this, but I often end up betting against what the general public bets. My weekly gambling column features "Fool's Gold", which highlights a line that seems too good to be true and usually has a high volume of public bettors betting on it.
11/17/2011
LV Part VI: Scratching the Vegas Itch Again
About every five or six months in the past 3-4 years, there's this mosquito that keeps biting the living hell out of me.
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
 |
| Sin City Revisited in T-minus-68 hours |
This itch cannot be ignored. The inevitable scratching cannot be avoided. It gets to the point where I start forming scabs as a result of the itch.
However, this itch is not your average bug. Its lights, unlike a lightning bug, are attractive and don't tempt me to grab a plastic bat to get some batting practice.
The bite usually ends up being costly, in the amount of $500-1000 over the course of a 3-4 day span.
Ok, I'm delaying the news, as if I still have your attention anyways--It's Vegas time baby! And in a new twist for my 6th Vegas trip, I will be accompanied by a female this time around.
This will be our second time in Vegas this year, but her last time was mainly just business. Now, she will have to face the monster that Vegas turns me into.
Bellagio buffets. Mimosas. Bacon. More Mimosas. More Bacon...and this is all before 10am.
(see how I turned Bacon into a proper noun? I'm hoping this catches on in the literary world)
I digress. The girlfriend is already getting tired of me repeating myself on the deliciousness of the Bellagio buffet, the plethora of cocktails at the Bellagio sportsbook at the low, low price of a tip, and so on.
We'll likely take on different angles of a Vegas trip than I am accustomed to, but I have no problem with that. I'll get my fair share of time in the sportsbook (from around noon pacific time till who knows on the Sunday is guaranteed), but at the same time, I'm also looking forward to experiencing a few different things about Vegas.
I'll likely keep everyone updated via Twitter (and maybe a little bit on FB) in regards to my bets, experiences and deliciousness that is Vegas.
Let one of the best weeks of the year commence ASAP.
Fools Gold, Week 11
Looks like my Fools Gold column has become fools gold in itself. Indianapolis continued on its "Not Do Good on Purpose for Luck" campaign by losing 17-3 to the Jaguars. Luckily, for the second week in a row, I bet on the end I thought was fools gold and laid the points with Jacksonville.
(5-5 record - includes 4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold and 2-0, +$100 when betting on the FG)
San Diego at Chicago (-3.5) - When I saw this game on the schedule for this week and figuring in each team's past 3-4 week stretch, I figured Chicago would be about -5 or 6. So you'd think I'd be ecstatic to see Chicago this low and would hammer the crap out of them, particularly since this will be among the first games I can bet on while in Vegas.
Au contraire, mon frere. Call me a sucker around 4:30 Pacific time (yes, already getting comfortable saying Pacific time in Vegas-speak), but I'm gonna take San Diego as my first bet of my Vegas trip. I think the Bears will have a letdown after an emotional, convincing win against the Lions.
Other Week 11 Bets
NYJ -4.5 & Under 38.5 (Bought down 1.5 pts) - First bets to be graded for the week. I caught NYJ early in the week at this line. Also think it will be a quick game thanks to about 70-80 total rushes between the two teams.
Jax -1 - Unfortunately, I took this line earlier in the week as well, thinking bettors might actually lean Jax. Now Jax is +1, which I guess doesn't really change much. Not too many games end with a team winning by 1 or a tied game. This game should be a nominee for sloppiest game of the year.
Det -7 - I think Detroit is gonna take out its frustrations on a Carolina team that is also coming off of its worst performance this year.
Ten +6 - This seems to be too many points to lay with Atlanta here. I'm not sure yet if I'll be betting this when I get to Vegas, but there's a good chance of it. Tennessee only a game back in division if they win.
SF -9.5 - Harbaugh is 13-0-2 against the spread in his last 15 games as coach (6 games w/ Stanford, 9 w/ Niners). Since I'll be in Vegas for this, it'll be hard not to back this trend for another week. I worry slightly about a look-ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup against Harbaugh's brother in Baltimore, but not enough where I won't bet it.
Attempting to avoid NCAA picks this week - we'll see how that goes.
| Week 10 | Week 11 |
| NFL 3-5, -$21 | NCAA 1-4-1, -$200 |
| Totals 2-1, $204 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-1, -$50 |
| Spreads 1-4, -$225 | Spreads 1-3-1, -$150 |
| YTD: 38-32-3, $514.70 | YTD: 19-30-1, -$468 |
| Totals: 13-10-1, $416.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-6, -$310 |
| Spreads: 21-20-2, -$104 | Spreads: 16-16-1, $97 |
11/10/2011
Thank God It's Thursday: Return of Mid-Week NFL & Predictions for NFL/NCAA
Welcome back Thursday Night Football. Those of us who have been following the Penn St. scandal greatly appreciate your presence, if only for a three-hour period.
Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.
The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.
Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.
Penn St Update
I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.
I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.
I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.
Fools Gold, Week 10
Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).
Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.
Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5
Week 10 action
San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.
NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.
NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.
Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.
NCAA picks
Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.
Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game
Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan
Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.
The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.
Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.
Penn St Update
I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.
I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.
I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.
Fools Gold, Week 10
Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).
Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.
Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5
Week 10 action
San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.
NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.
NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.
Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.
Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.
NCAA picks
Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.
Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game
Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan
| Week 9 | Week 10 |
| NFL 4-2, $97.50 | NCAA 3-7, -$104 |
| Totals 1-1, -$7.50 | Totals 1-4, -$95 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 3-1, $105 | Spreads 2-3, -$9 |
| YTD: 35-27-3, $535.70 | YTD: 18-26-1, -$268 |
| Totals: 11-9-1, $212.10 | Totals: 3-8, -$255 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-5, -$260 |
| Spreads: 20-16-2, $121 | Spreads: 15-13, $247 |
11/03/2011
Crucial Taunt - More B-Bo NCAA Ramblings & Football picks for Week 9
The unofficial play-in game for the BCS title game is going on this weekend...LSU heads to their rival Alabama's home field for a Saturday night tilt that will decide who goes to the championship game. This is dependent on the winner not slipping between now and then - but for all intents and purposes, the winner will have a chance to extend the SEC's dominance in the title game. Oddsmakers currently have Bama tabbed as a 5 pt favorite with an O/U of 41. I have no idea what side to play, so I shouldn't. If anything, I think I'd like the Under in this battle. Watch for Les Miles to do something crazy that will make or break LSUs chances of going into January undefeated and going for the crown.
How come college programs don't get penalized for leaving conferences...and yet, players who dare transfer these same college programs to other college programs have to sit out a year (unless they have special circumstances)? I think a good deterrant for these teams would be to enforce the same rules that they have for the players - if they decide to switch conferences, they have to sit out a year. That'd really make WVU reconsider leaving the Big East. While I think my idea is slightly drastic, I hate that the NCAA continues to spew these double standards where multi-million dollar coaches can switch programs w/ no problem, teams that can switch conferences at will, yet unpaid players who want to switch teams have to miss a season. Sounds fair to me. F you, NCAA.
Fools Gold Pick of the Week (NFL Week 9)
Last week, we suffered another loss, 5-3 now (4-3, +$10). This week presents a different twist on the Fools Gold platter.
San Fran -3.5 at Washington - Washington is coming off a few sloppy losses, including a shutout at the hands of the Buffalo Bills - who aren't exactly known for their stout defense. Meanwhile, you have San Fran coming into town. The Niners boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, including an amazing stat of no rushing TDs allowed in the team's first seven games.
Normally this year, I would either avoid this game or bet against the deceiving line. However, I already threw some money on San Fran in this game. I can't even say it's a homer bet. I just don't see where Washington gets their points in this game. Alex Smith has been fantastic in managing the games (only 2 picks thrown this year) and the team continues to utilize Gore in the running game. I recommend not betting this game because of the deceiving line, so do as I say, not as I do.
Fools Gold Pick: Washington +3.5 (betting opposite of this for the first time this year)
Other NFL picks this week I am considering (follow me @brianbolek on Twitter for a full blast of games)
NYG (+9) at NE - I have already bet NYG. They always play up to the level of their competition. I expect their pass rush to give Brady fits. I expect this game w/in a touchdown either way.
SD (+5.5/6) vs. GB - I consider SD a buy-low candidate here. They're usually a good home team. I'd like to see SD go to +7 but doubt it. Haven't bet it yet.
Chi +8 at Phil - Too many points to spot the Bears. They contained Vick well last year, and Forte vs. the Eagles presents a big advantage to the Bears. Also might consider the under of this game as well (total of 47)
NCAA picks for Saturday
Iowa +4 vs. Michigan - play of the day
Washington +17 vs. Oregon
LSU/Alabama under 41
Ohio St/Indiana over 52
Wake Forest +13.5 (maybe catch it at 14)
| Week 8 | Week 9 |
| NFL 5-3, $104.10 | NCAA 5-4-1, $165 |
| Totals 1-2, -$60 | Totals 2-1-1, $60 |
| MLs 1-1, -$5.90 | MLs 0-2, -$90 |
| Spreads 3-0, $170 | Spreads 3-1, $195 |
| YTD: 31-25-3, $438.20 | YTD: 15-19-1, -$209 |
| Totals: 10-8-1, $219.60 | Totals: 2-4-1, -$160 |
| MLs: 4-2, $202.60 | MLs: 0-5, -$260 |
| Spreads: 17-15-2, $16 | Spreads: 13-10, $256 |
10/20/2011
DirecTV Impact: My Introduction to the NFL Package & Picks for Week 7
For much of my adult life, I have known about the NFL package, but never got it for several reasons - (1) we never had DirecTV and (2) I never felt the need to fork up the dough to watch a mediocre Niners team even if we did have it. Also, there was the 4 years of Sundays where I was at college and the NFL package would have been useless.
In previous years, I have gone to a local bar and spent anywhere between a games-worth and 2 games-worth of time watch the full slate of NFL action on different TVs. Funny thing is, you end up spending more money over the season at the bar for drinks and food than you ever would just ordering the package.
Enter 2011 - and I am the proud co-owner of an NFL package with a friend of mine. And it's been great being able to focus on 3 games with the three TV setup that he has in his basement. I've been able to catch all of my Niners games - and shockingly they've been watchable games from a Niners perspective.
More importantly, as a gambler, it's allowed me the chance to watch certain teams and see how they play better than reading a stat sheet ever could. Seeing box scores can tell you a story of a game, but how something happened (i.e. a receiver getting yards because his defender fell down rather than earning it against a standing defender) allows you to see more of a complete story.
That's not to say that I never took notice to these things before - it's just that I've been able to focus on these games better in a setting that wasn't as distracting as a bar. These mental notes I've taken of the few teams I've watched has allowed me to handicap some of these games better.
Hopefully I'll continue to see great Niners results and sharpen my handicapping skills at the same time.
Fools Gold & Week 7 Picks
Last week, Tampa Bay did just as I predicted - a 26-20 upset win over the Saints. This moves Fools Gold to an impressive 5-1 record, with all 5 winners actually winning straight up.
A couple of games stand out on the schedule as far as deceiving lines go, so I'll narrow it to one.
Pittsburgh (-4) at Arizona - Coming off a pair of home wins, including an ugly one against the lowly Jaguars, the Steelers are laying only 3.5 points against another opponent with only one win (Arizona's only win was in Week 1 against Carolina).
Pittsburgh enters the game beaten up. Polomalu will play after passing his post-concussion test, Mendenhall will play after sitting out a game due to injury. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries all year.
Meanwhile, Arizona comes off the bye. They are 1-1 at home but very well could be 2-0 if not for a controversial call going against them late in the game of their 31-27 loss to the Giants a few weeks back. They do play better at home and outside of their Week 5 game against the Vikes, have played competitive games in the first quarter of the year.
I anticipate a good effort from Arizona this week, a good game from Beanie Wells, and an upset win for the Cardinals.
Fools Gold Pick for Week 7: Arizona +4
Fools Gold (YTD: 5-1 (4-1, +$115 when betting it))
Other Week 7 Plays and Leans
StL +13 at Dallas - I caught the line at +13 when news broke that Bradford might play. I figured I'd take a chance that he would play. Even if he doesn't, I think this is too many points for Dallas to lay. All 5 of the Cowboys' games this year have been decided by 4 points or less (dating back to last year, it's 11 straight games decided within that amount). Another angle I'm playing here - according to a stat I found in one of my gambling forums, teams who have lost 5 straight games against the spread (as the Rams have) are 24-1 ATS in the 6th game. I'm not sure how far the trend dates back, but I'm willing to take the chance. Already booked at 13, may put more on it as long as it stays in the 12-13 range.
Tampa Bay +1.5 vs. Chicago - This game is being played 5 time zones to the east. While Tampa Bay has already settled into the time zone change, the Bears are probably flying over there as I type this (Thursday night). Learning from a previous London trip in which they were walloped by the Patriots - with many players admitting that they didn't adjust to the time change well, Tampa decided to fly out there early this time. I think Tampa might be a better team anyways, but having this bit of knowledge puts me firmly on the side of the Bucs.
KC +6 at Oakland - I think Palmer may have an adjustment period. KC coming off of a bye and a 2-game win streak. I expect Jackie Battle to have a good game for the Chiefs and help them keep within the number in this rivalry game.
Leans: Seattle +3, NYJ +2, Ind/NO Under 48, Car/Wash Over 43.5
Keep yourself updated on Twitter @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek
As always, good luck to your fantasy teams, your bets and especially your teams!
 |
| Welcome to the NFL Package, Mr. Bolek |
In previous years, I have gone to a local bar and spent anywhere between a games-worth and 2 games-worth of time watch the full slate of NFL action on different TVs. Funny thing is, you end up spending more money over the season at the bar for drinks and food than you ever would just ordering the package.
Enter 2011 - and I am the proud co-owner of an NFL package with a friend of mine. And it's been great being able to focus on 3 games with the three TV setup that he has in his basement. I've been able to catch all of my Niners games - and shockingly they've been watchable games from a Niners perspective.
More importantly, as a gambler, it's allowed me the chance to watch certain teams and see how they play better than reading a stat sheet ever could. Seeing box scores can tell you a story of a game, but how something happened (i.e. a receiver getting yards because his defender fell down rather than earning it against a standing defender) allows you to see more of a complete story.
That's not to say that I never took notice to these things before - it's just that I've been able to focus on these games better in a setting that wasn't as distracting as a bar. These mental notes I've taken of the few teams I've watched has allowed me to handicap some of these games better.
Hopefully I'll continue to see great Niners results and sharpen my handicapping skills at the same time.
Fools Gold & Week 7 Picks
Last week, Tampa Bay did just as I predicted - a 26-20 upset win over the Saints. This moves Fools Gold to an impressive 5-1 record, with all 5 winners actually winning straight up.
A couple of games stand out on the schedule as far as deceiving lines go, so I'll narrow it to one.
Pittsburgh (-4) at Arizona - Coming off a pair of home wins, including an ugly one against the lowly Jaguars, the Steelers are laying only 3.5 points against another opponent with only one win (Arizona's only win was in Week 1 against Carolina).
Pittsburgh enters the game beaten up. Polomalu will play after passing his post-concussion test, Mendenhall will play after sitting out a game due to injury. The offensive line has been dealing with injuries all year.
Meanwhile, Arizona comes off the bye. They are 1-1 at home but very well could be 2-0 if not for a controversial call going against them late in the game of their 31-27 loss to the Giants a few weeks back. They do play better at home and outside of their Week 5 game against the Vikes, have played competitive games in the first quarter of the year.
I anticipate a good effort from Arizona this week, a good game from Beanie Wells, and an upset win for the Cardinals.
Fools Gold Pick for Week 7: Arizona +4
Fools Gold (YTD: 5-1 (4-1, +$115 when betting it))
Other Week 7 Plays and Leans
StL +13 at Dallas - I caught the line at +13 when news broke that Bradford might play. I figured I'd take a chance that he would play. Even if he doesn't, I think this is too many points for Dallas to lay. All 5 of the Cowboys' games this year have been decided by 4 points or less (dating back to last year, it's 11 straight games decided within that amount). Another angle I'm playing here - according to a stat I found in one of my gambling forums, teams who have lost 5 straight games against the spread (as the Rams have) are 24-1 ATS in the 6th game. I'm not sure how far the trend dates back, but I'm willing to take the chance. Already booked at 13, may put more on it as long as it stays in the 12-13 range.
Tampa Bay +1.5 vs. Chicago - This game is being played 5 time zones to the east. While Tampa Bay has already settled into the time zone change, the Bears are probably flying over there as I type this (Thursday night). Learning from a previous London trip in which they were walloped by the Patriots - with many players admitting that they didn't adjust to the time change well, Tampa decided to fly out there early this time. I think Tampa might be a better team anyways, but having this bit of knowledge puts me firmly on the side of the Bucs.
KC +6 at Oakland - I think Palmer may have an adjustment period. KC coming off of a bye and a 2-game win streak. I expect Jackie Battle to have a good game for the Chiefs and help them keep within the number in this rivalry game.
Leans: Seattle +3, NYJ +2, Ind/NO Under 48, Car/Wash Over 43.5
Keep yourself updated on Twitter @brianbolek or www.twitter.com/brianbolek
| Week 6 | Week 7 |
| NFL 5-2, $250 | NCAA 1-1, $45 |
| Totals 1-1, $45 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-0 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 4-1, $205 | Spreads 1-1, $45 |
| YTD: 25-19-3, +$431.60 | YTD: 9-15, -$424 |
| Totals: 9-6-1, +$299.60 | Totals: 0-3, -$220 |
| MLs: 2-1, $86 | MLs: 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads: 14-12-2, $66 | Spreads: 9-9, $11 |
As always, good luck to your fantasy teams, your bets and especially your teams!
10/13/2011
Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap
Teblow
If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?
It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.
My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.
His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.
I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.
He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.
Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.
All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.
Jay Walking... Barely
How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.
All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.
To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.
By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.
This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.
Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.
The NFL Picks Corner
Fools Gold
Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.
New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.
This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.
Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)
Other Week 6 picks:
Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.
Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.
San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.
Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.
Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?
 |
| Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow. |
It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.
My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.
His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.
I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.
He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.
Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.
All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.
Jay Walking... Barely
How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.
All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.
To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.
By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.
This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.
 |
| "Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler" |
Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.
The NFL Picks Corner
Fools Gold
Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.
New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.
This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.
Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)
Other Week 6 picks:
Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.
Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.
San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.
Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.
Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
| Week 5 | Week 6 |
| NFL 2-5, -$132.40 | NCAA 0-2, -$99 |
| Totals 1-0, $127.60 | Totals 0-0 |
| MLs 0-1 -$40 | MLs 0-0 |
| Spreads 1-4, -$220 | Spreads 0-2, -$99 |
| YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60 | YTD: 8-14, -$424 |
| Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60 | Totals: 0-3, -$220 |
| MLs: 2-1, $86 | MLs: 0-3, -$170 |
| Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139 | Spreads: 8-8, -$34 |
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)