Showing posts with label jay cutler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jay cutler. Show all posts

10/10/2013

One Ring, No Problem: How Peyton Escapes the Critiques that Face Other QBs

A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.

More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.

The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?

So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?

On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.

When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.

If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?

9/06/2013

These Things, I Know: NFL Thoughts Entering Week 1

Here are some random thoughts about the NFL that I know to be true heading into the 2013 season:

  1. People have already made up their minds on Jay Cutler. No level of success this year outside of a Super Bowl victory will be good enough for the people that already hate him (and even then, there will be a good share of detractors), mainly for non-football reasons - i.e. his personality and demeanor turn people off. My favorite thing about sports is how everyone becomes a certified psychologist and body language expert, as if something that a television presents to you without context (a guy sitting on the bench) is a good way to read a person's true thoughts or feelings.

    Watch the reaction of Cutler after throwing an interception or getting off the field after a bad drive, and it's no different than when a top quarterback reams out his offensive line for missing a block or a receiver running the wrong pattern. But since it's a guy that hasn't succeeded in the league, the general reaction to Cutler's reaction is one of disgust. People call him petulant, a whiner, mopey, basically any adjective in the family of "immature guy who looks like he doesn't care".

    I really hope he succeeds this year and shoves it in the face of the fans who hate him and clearly yearn for the days of Johnathan Quinn or Henry Burris behind center.
  2. All of the above, change a few adjectives and names around, applies to Tony Romo.
  3. You can't say anything bad about Peyton Manning, not even his arm strength. Plus he makes funny commercials, furthering his positive image. Just makes me wonder how he would be perceived had he not had the pleasure of winning his only Super Bowl against the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears. Winning just one Super Bowl changes public perception on you forever.
  4. Some people should not be playing in fantasy football leagues.

    Just caught something on NFL Network about a Monte Ball tweet posted after his teammate Peyton Manning shredded the Ravens in a 49-24 rout of the defending champs.

  5. Here are some tweets I pulled up from people addressing Monte directly:



Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year

Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.

Week 1 Picks I like:

Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG

Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt

11/21/2012

San Franchised - Jen's 30th Bday in Words & Pics

On the Golden Gate w/ my Girl of Gold
Good morning y'all.

So you're probably wondering how Jen's birthday trip to San Fran was...What's that, you caught all of our pictures and statuses on Facebook? Well...uhm....read this anyways.

Actually, there's a lot more to our trip than what was mentioned on the incessant messages, the latter of which were not replied to for the simple fact that the Niners absolutely Pwned the Bears on Monday Night Football.

(As I was waiting to get me and Jen some In-N-Out Burger, I overheard some idiot Bears fan backing out of a bet he made with a 49ers friend of his which would require him to shave his head since the Bears lost. I absolutely hate...HATE...when people back out of bets - more on In-N-Out later).

Happy 30th to Jen!

Here's some randomness from the trip:


The Full House houses (we think)
  1. Planes, Trains, Automobiles...and many more forms of transportation were taken on our trip. Starting from our flight to San Francisco, here's how our daily transportation went:

    Saturday: Car to Airport, Plane, Shuttle Bus
    Sunday: Walk to Golden Gate (about a 3-to-4 mile walk from our place), Taxi (including a free ride down crookedest street of Lombard Street), Boat to Alcatraz
    Monday: Walk through Lombard Street, Trolley to Chinatown, Taxi to the Painted Ladies, Bus to the Full House houses and three more bus rides, including a round-trip to/from the Niners game
    Tuesday: Shuttle, plane, car back to our Chi-town palace.

    Needless to say, we made the most out of every type of available transportation in the past four days.
  2. Did You Know....That Interstate 80 ends in San Francisco? It feels like I-80 runs through every major city. I wonder how long it would take to drive from one end to the other.
  3. It feels like big upsets in sports occur whenever I'm on vacation and I can't watch them. Oregon loses to Stanford (which I heard the end to in the shuttlebus radio), Baylor destroys Kansas State, which moves Notre Dame to the #1 spot for the first time in 400 years*. I'm not sure which upset I'm more surprised with, but anyone who watches college football knows that November is a great month for these upsets of previously unbeaten teams. It's so so hard to play a great game for all 12/13 games before the Bowl season comes around. Even though Matt Barkley is out this week, I wouldn't be shocked if Notre Dame lost this week - just so hard to win week in/week out.

    *slight exaggeration
  4. Jen had a great birthday trip here, except...for her experience at Candlestick. And no, I'm not just talking about the drubbing that her Bears took. I was not aware of the Stick's hostile treatment of visiting fans until earlier this year when reading about some Saints' fans experiencing some harassing douchebags. When she went to go get some food during the game, Jen experienced some of this as she was waiting in line and was right near some idiots who were fighting. Also, some guy was giving her a hard time for wearing her Peppers jersey and was questioning her knowledge of what the GSH initials were in reference to (she correctly said George Halas, while the idiot thought it may have been for Gale Sayers).

    I know all teams have their share of assholes at games, but I felt bad that Jen had to experience this, especially with me not being there at the time to help her out of the situation.
  5. As always, the best parts of any trip are the ones you don't expect or plan...and this trip was no exception. It's hard for us to determine what spontaneous moment we liked the best from our trip. There was the moment where a homeless guy scared the crap out of Jen by hiding behind a tree branch full of leaves that he was holding, only to pop out and scare her. There was also our cab driver who was a delight and stopped our taxi meter about 10 minutes before we got out of the cab - during that time, he drove us down the crooked part of Lombard Street (the crookedest street in the country/world). If you have the chance to go to San Fran, you should see this street.
  6. Photo: Good seats.....hmmm, I think so
    The cheerleaders came by to say Hi (and then left really quick after that)
  7. People watching at Monday Night Football. Our great seats at the game allowed us to see a few celebrities walking the sidelines before the game. Among them were Jeremy Piven (actor), Drew Rosenhaus (NFL Super Agent - think new age version of Jerry Maguire) & the ESPN crew (Trent Dilfer and old 49er Steve Young among them). Oh yeah, and there were the cheerleaders dancing in front of us. Yeahhhhh...

  8. San Fran is so damn expensive. It's not normal to want to go back to Chicago because the prices are cheaper, but that's the case when comparing the Gold Rush city to the Windy one. It felt like everything was Chicago prices multiplied by an additional 20%. I'd love to live in the city if it wasn't for the damn prices.
  9. You know you're a fatass...when you're charging Diet Cokes that you are buying from a vending machine at your hotel. I can't believe my first ever use of EasyPass was to buy cold carbonated beverages for me and Jen from a Coke machine. I can hear all of you shaking your head...and I don't blame you.
  10. No matter whether Cutler played or not, the Bears would not have won the game we went to. If you're not a football fan, you may not know Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears starter) missed his first game of the year due to a concussion, leaving them with backup Jason Campbell to face a San Francisco 49ers defense whose mouth was foaming at the possibility of facing the Bears' weak offensive front and slow-footed backup. Cutler would have done better (I hope), but he hasn't really done anything this year to make me think he would have been able to match Colin Kaepernick's offensive output.
  11. Jen trying not to show her disappointed face
  12. If you're a fan of historical stuff, there's no question that you should visit Alcatraz. I believe Jen's favorite site on the trip was visiting Golden Gate Bridge, which is an excellent choice and a must-do for anyone visiting the city. However, the one thing I didn't do on my trip in January was the one big thing missing from my San Francisco experience - visiting Alcatraz. Getting to hear the history of the prison, including how the US government helped form the island into an inescapable (supposedly) fortress, was an amazing story. Hearing of all the escape stories from the island made me realize just how clever criminals can be - if only they applied that same reasoning and intelligence in the real world as upright citizens. I read the book about some of these escapes on the flight home - loved it. As far as anyone knows, no one has ever successfully escaped Alcatraz (many have drowned or died from hypothermia since the San Francisco Bay are so cold - some folks were never found and are assumed dead).
  13. Fitting location for this Alcatraz Pic
  14. In-N-Out Burger was ok...but definitely not better than Five Guys. Yeah, I said it. Me and Jen both devoured our double double's, don't get me wrong. They just weren't the high quality burger that we've grown to love from Five Guys. If you disagree, you are wrong. Way way wrong.

9/21/2012

NFL News & #BolekBestBets - NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4

Good afternoon NFL fans and betting buddies of mine.

I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.

Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:


  1. Overreaction to Week 1 gives way to Overreaction to Week 2. If you live in the Chicago Bears market, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Week 1 - Bears destroy Colts and they're Super Bowl bound. Week 2 - they lose to the Packers (last I checked, the Packers are pretty damn good) and now the world is falling. This happened with a few teams (Packers, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, etc). Odds are, your team that rotated wins and losses in Week 1 with differing performances in the games is probably not as good as their win and not as bad as their loss shows. Calm down, take a breath, and enjoy the rest of the season.
  2. Too much fluff on these sports shows. The fact that I heard that Eli threw for over 500 yards, which has only happened a handful of times in history, about 1000 times less than the last play spat between the coaches is pathetic. Why is so much time spent on stuff that has little/nothing to do with the outcome? Are we so dumb as sports fans that they're catering to our supposed need for this? I'd like to think most people I know are better than this. I care about results, what happened to get to those results (i.e. stats). I don't need TMZ-style analysis entering ESPN and other sports shows.
  3. If you got a ring, it don't mean a thing. Tom Brady yells at his offensive line. Peyton Manning yells at his offensive line. Aaron Rodgers yells at his offensive line. Jay Cutler yells at his offensive line. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Jay Cutler.

    Peyton Manning makes a big mistake in a playoff game and throws a pick-6 to the Saints to help New Orleans seal their Super Bowl win years back. Despite having the best record in the past 7 years, Tom Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in that time. Tony Romo fumbles a field goal snap that costs his team a chance at winning a first round playoff game. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Tony Romo

    I'm not saying these guys (Romo and Cutler) shouldn't get blame for the mistakes that they make, but please have some perspective and realize that these other guys make mistakes too. If Peyton hadn't beaten the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears to win his lone Super Bowl, his mistake against the Saints would have been the main story of the Super Bowl, not the Saints winning their first Super Bowl.

    The media and general public tend to forgive the mistakes of QBs who have won Super Bowls. Keep in mind, there's only a handful of current QBs who have won a Super Bowl: Rodgers, both Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, Brees (six total QBs). Any QB not on this list who is considered good/great will eventually hear it from media/public if they fail to make the next step.
NCAA Week 4

K State +15
Baylor -8.5
Temple +7.5
USC -16.5

NFL Week 3
Fool's Gold Pick (0-2 so far) Oakland +4
San Fran -6.5 (falling for the trap)
NE +2 (or ML)
Cle +3
Ariz +3.5
Dal -7.5

I'm out of Survivor League for Don after picking New England like a sucker. If I was still alive today, I'd pick Dallas this week.

I don't have updated records - but for NFL, I know they're bad. I won my under bet last night, so I'm hoping I can get some betting momentum heading into the next couple weeks.

Good luck to everyone this week on bets and fantasy.

5/31/2012

B List - Best Value on NFL Super Bowl Futures (List 3)

We're still over 3 months away from the regular season starting, yet I can't stop thinking about it. The sport itself is enough to enjoy, but add to it the element of fantasy football and gambling, and we have a recipe for my favorite sport. While it is not the most timely of topics, it is one I cannot avoid.

Below are futures bets (odds to win the Super Bowl) that I'd consider great values at the moment. I'll eventually write an NFL preview with predictions and may not have the same opinion of the teams listed below as I do now.

Remember too, for gamblers, betting on odds to win the Super Bowl isn't always about picking the team who will win it all, but rather what team can guarantee you some profit depending on their level of advancement in the playoffs. Profit should always be the goal, so hedging against these picks in the playoffs would guarantee some money back either way.

Without further ado...

7. Kansas City - 50/1...A year removed from a division championship, the Chiefs offer great value for a team that resides in the NFL's new worst division. Last year, it felt like the entire Chiefs team got injured with ACL injuries in the first couple weeks. With a presumably healthy Jamaal Charles & Matt Cassel coming back, along with a nice complement for Charles in Peyton Hillis, I believe that the Chiefs have a great chance to win the division again. My initial thought of winning this division a few weeks ago was San Diego, but I'm not sure how much I can trust a team led by Norv Turner, who must have naked pictures on the Chargers owner for continually avoiding the chopping block.

6. St. Louis - 80/1...The Rams have a well-respected coach taking the helm this year. Like the AFC West, we're not talking about one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. If Bradford can stay healthy behind center, I expect the Rams to surpass the Vegas win total of 6 for the 2012 season by at least two games. I don't think the Rams are better or more talented than the 49ers, but even I know that the leap the Niners took from 2010 to 2011 is likely to have a regression of sorts. If that regression is in the 9-10 win range, I think the Rams could threaten for the division. Another great thing about the Rams is the tremendous amount of youth on their team - it could end up working in their favor.

5. Miami - 40/1...In the first half of 2011, the Dolphins were looking like strong contenders to be in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Then, after an 0-7 start, something strange happened...they started winning. They closed the second half of the year with a 6-3 record, with many blowout wins in that stretch (their average margin of victory in those 6 games was about 16 points). They were even slaughtering the Patriots in a Christmas Eve tilt before Brady and company came back and stole one at home. The Dolphins may have drafted Ryan Tannehill for the future, but I believe Matt Moore's solid run down the stretch behind center deserves a second look entering the season. I could see Miami contending for a Wild Card in the AFC, with an outside shot at the AFC East crown if New England loses Brady for a significant period of time.


4. Chicago - 28/1...Last year, I liked the odds they had in the preseason as well, and their odds looked like a steal until Cutler and Forte went down in mid-November and their team, which looked like a team who could make a run in the playoffs (despite the likelihood of playing nothing but road games), went to completely crap. A 7-3 start was followed by a 1-5 stumble in the last 6 games without Cutler. This year, Cutler and Forte are back and have experienced backups (Jason Campbell and Michael Bush) that would make injuries to the starters less harmful to the season's prospects. With Brandon Marshall in the fold, Cutler has his favorite target from Denver. Their defense has hardly ever been an issue, so I expect them to be strong there again. Division champions have about a 50% turnover rate every year, so it would not shock me to see either the Bears or Lions overtake the Packers in the NFC North and have a high seed in the playoffs.

3. Carolina - 44/1...After seeing what Cam Newton did in his first year behind center, I am a big believer in his abilities and I think he will be in the elite QB discussion for the next 10 years. A blog of mine back in January pointed out that most teams who win Super Bowls have a Hall-of-Fame quality QB behind center, and while it was only his first year, I believe Newton's career arc will have him contending for Super Bowls in the near future. With the leaps that teams make from year to year, who's to say the Panthers can't go from 2-14 to 11-5/12-4 in a two-year span? Consider me one of the first on their bandwagon.

2. New Orleans - 16/1...The Saints are one of the most difficult teams to project in the NFL. The coach who led them to the Super Bowl - suspended for year. Some key defensive players - suspended for portions of the year (Vilma for the entire year). I wouldn't be surprised if the distractions of what has happened this offseason caused the Saints to dip to an 8-8 or 7-9 record. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if Brees and company picked up where they left off last year and dominated their division once again. The latter thought is what makes me think that New Orleans has great value at this price. If NO were to make the playoffs in a similar fashion as last year, their odds will end up being a lot lower. And don't forget - if they do make the Super Bowl, it would be a home game, with the Superdome as host for this year's big game.

1. Detroit - 23/1...Stud QB, check. Stud WR, check. Stafford and Calvin Johnson showed what they can do together in a full season, which led Detroit to their first playoff appearance in centuries. In a passing league, having elite guys at these positions is key to making a series run at a ring. The front part of their line with Fairley & Suh is as talented as they come. The one thing I worry about with the Lions is their character issues. Fairley, Titus Young & Mikel Leshoure have all been arrested this offseason for various reasons. Leshoure missed 2011, but he could be the key in Detroit taking the next step in 2012. If the Lions could add a running attack to that passing offense, the Lions could be contending for the #1 seed in the NFC. There's still some issue with a weak secondary, but I place Detroit as the best value in terms of somewhat long-shots because I believe their ceiling is the highest of these teams. It'd be a risky 23/1, but one that could pay itself off in a big way.

12/22/2011

Playing: Selfishness vs. Pride

Let these blogs keep a flowin'!

Big Ben hurt his team by playing on Monday Night. If any Bears fans had any wonders on why Jay Cutler didn't play through his injury, the proof of why it was good was shown in San Francisco, where Roethlisberger hobbled his way through a 20-3 drubbing to the Niners.

I'm sure his teammates called him a warrior for coming out there to try winning for them, but what good was he serving them when he was clearly affected by the injury? Nevermind the 330 yards passing - he was responsible for 4 turnovers.

Charlie Batch proved himself in a 4 game stretch during Ben's suspension last year, going 3-1 to keep the ship afloat for the Steelers to start the 2010 season. He may not be the best QB, but he's a solid backup and would have been a better option than Big Ben with his high ankle sprain.

If Cutler continued to play in the championship game with the injury he had and played like Big Ben did, he would have been dogged by everyone for being selfish and putting himself ahead of the team. Let's face it - a lot of the hate for Cutler that day stemmed from people's perception of his personality, which is a lot of times off-putting and anti-social. Not many people know of the charitable work Cutler does for kids with diabetes.

As sick as it sounds to say, especially seeing what we've seen the past month, but Hanie was a better option for the Bears at that juncture than Cutler. Ironically, Jay was being a team player by pulling himself out - Big Ben wasn't.

Yet you would think the opposite is true.

I enjoy seeing teams try even when they have nothing to play for. While I didn't watch a single down of the Colts/Texans games, all I need to see is the final score to know that the Colts weren't about to fold in the face of getting a #1 pick. After all, the 53 guys who suited up are all making at least 6 figures, and many of them are not guaranteed jobs beyond this year.

Playing for pride does some strange things for some of these players. From a less athletic perspective, I enjoyed playing the role of spoiler with my crappy fantasy football teams in hopes of eliminating teams from money spots. Granted, I know it's not the same. Even though I had nothing to play for, I knew that the integrity of the leagues are at stake if I don't try to win every week.

The same goes for professional sports - about 90 million times more so. I know it has to sting for the Colts to see their guys pulling out wins late in the season and risking a chance at not getting the #1 pick. As a football fan, I appreciate it when guys bust their asses on a weekly basis and show pride.

I'm thinking that Minnesota and St. Louis, who are the only teams who can over-take Indy, would probably pass on a QB even if Indy got another win. Especially StL, who is handcuffed to Bradford's contract.

Kudos to Indy for making this a possibility. I'm glad that there are some millionaire athletes who give a crap.

10/13/2011

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 
Week 5 Week 6
   
NFL 2-5, -$132.40 NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60 Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40 MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220 Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60 YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60 Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86 MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139 Spreads: 8-8, -$34

8/10/2011

Long shots, Cutler, & Week 1 Gambling Leans

I can't not focus on football, so here's some more random football thoughts.

Long shots that I'd consider placing money on if I were in Vegas with these odds (Long shot defined as anything beyond 20/1) - odds provided by www.bookmaker.eu:
Houston Texans: 30/1 - If you read my last blog about football, you'd already know this would be a long-shot that I would like.
Chicago Bears: 38/1 - If they can protect their QB even slightly better than last year, they can be better than last year. Although I think teams around them in the upper echelon of the NFC got better and will be better. Still, at these odds, it'd be worth a small bet on these odds if their defense can play up to the same level as last year and offense improves slightly.
Tampa Bay: 45/1 - Big fan of these odds for a team with a soon-to-be Pro Bowl QB in Josh Freeman (25 TDs, only 6 ints), a tough-to-tackle RB in LeGarrette Blount, and a defense that was top 10 in points allowed and takeaway differential. These odds are inflated mainly due to their NFC South competition (New Orleans and Atlanta). But at 45/1, I'd be all over these odds.

Thoughts on how Jay Cutler will be received:
If Cutler is booed to start the year because of how last year ended, then I wish those fans a season full of Todd Collins and see how that goes. Everyone and their mother seemed to get caught up in the emotion of the injury last year that left Cutler sidelined for the 2nd half of the NFC Championship game in their eventual loss to the Packers. Fans and fellow NFL players (notably Maurice Jones-Drew) were basing their judgments of Cutler's "injury" on the shots that Fox showed of him on the sideline supposedly not caring about what was going on in the game or not helping Hanie out. I can't say this for certain because I wasn't there, but I'm fairly certain Fox was showing isolated shots of him by himself on purpose to paint this picture. It doesn't help that Cutler is cold to the media (and now seeing how misconstrued they painted him here, who can blame him?), so he gets no benefit of the doubt from the fans.

The dude got raped without protection all year (52 sacks in 15 games played) and should be soon delivering the bastard baby that the Giants impregnated him with last October. He started all but one game last year despite this beating behind one of the worst offensive lines that Chicago has ever seen. I'm not saying he shouldn't be taking the blame for some of these sacks and also just taking blame in general when the offense goes awry, but to question this guy's toughness (especially a guy who's playing with diabetes) is pure ignorance.

My favorite thing to come from the Cutler aftermath was when people said they saw him walking around just fine when they saw him going to a restaurant in the city or the like. Yeah - because walking into a restaurant is the same thing as running away from 250 pound linebackers on a football field with an MCL tear. If he's dodging angry waiters who lost money on the Bears after the game with amazing grace, then get back to me. Please don't boo him to start the year for last year because you think he pussied out of the biggest game of his life. Instead, save those boos for legitimate mistakes that he will eventually make in 2011.

22 days until college football starts, 29 till NFL kicks off...
which means I can't stop thinking about who I am going to bet on in week 1. The preseason in NFL will affect some of these odds, but I have some idea of a few potential week 1 NFL bets:

Kickoff game: New Orleans at Green Bay (-4.5/total of 46). I like the under here. Seems like week 1, especially opening game, defenses are ahead of offenses, which leads to lower scores. I'd love to see the total go up to about 48 or so if possible (the betting public almost always bets Overs on prime-time games), but will likely be happy with betting this at 46. I see about a 20/24-17 score in the opener.

Sunday games: Indianapolis at Houston (-3/total of 46). I like the over here. While I think the Houston defense will be better with Philips as their D-coordinator, I wouldn't be surprised if there's an adjustment for some of these guys to get acclimated to a 3-4 defense. If Manning plays, I'd expect a total score in the low 50s at least. If the line falls to 2.5, I may consider Houston as a pick.

Carolina at Arizona (-5.5, 36.5). Seems like most people are on the Kolb train, but I can't lay 5.5 on a team that didn't really do much else to improve their team through the free agent wire. Their offensive line allowed almost as many sacks as the Bears did, and it doesn't appear they addressed their O-line woes. Meanwhile, the Panthers were devastated with injuries last year and can't get worse than they were last year. I think Ron Rivera will get about 6 wins out of these guys this year. I'll gladly take the +5.5 and may consider a money line bet on them if I use a book this year that has money lines.

I know more lines will stick out soon, but those are the initial ones that I see. I'm going to try avoiding NCAA betting in week 1, but may find an angle to bet on in the high-profile game (LSU/Oregon).


Not much time left till the season starts in both, so let the countdown continue and let's watch baseball go swiftly into the sunset. This up/down/up/down from the Sox has me convinced they will end 81-81, so no use sweating that.

9 more days till fantasy football draft - which officially kicks off the football mania. Happy football!