Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5

Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.

I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.

I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.

After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.

It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.

It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.

Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.

It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.

I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.

In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.

Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.

It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).

Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.

The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.

Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.

Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.

Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.

Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".

There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.

Anywho....

As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen -  but I won't be backing these myself.

NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11

NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).

Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5

Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.

Have a good weekend.

Brief College Football Preview + Week 1 Predictions

I've waited until the last possible minute to provide a college football preview, mainly because my knowledge of the sport is lacking and I didn't think I'd be able to provide an in-depth preview anyways. I don't really keep up with the signings, but rather rely on industry experts (including some of my Twitter followers) and a few friends who partake in plenty of Saturday football sessions.

Check out Berserk Hippo Podcast - 2012 College Preview

Instead of providing a full-blown preview with analysis, I'll link you to my friend's podcast should you have the desire to learn a little bit more about the thoughts of knowledgeable college football fanatics. Nick Pazoles (@BerserkHippo) and Chris Williams (@cmwilliams51) run through each of the major conferences, with a special focus on the Big Ten, and make their picks to win each conference. They also provide a few surprise teams to watch and their BCS title predictions: Berserk Hippo Podcast - College Football 2012 Preview


I suggest taking a listen of it for more in-depth talk. Here's their predictions (and mine, just for the hell of it) summarized:

	Hippo	Williams	Bolek
Big Ten Legends	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan St.
Big Ten Leaders	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Ohio State*
BTC Winner	Wisconsin	Michigan	Wisconsin
SEC Champ	Georgia	Alabama	LSU
PAC-12	USC	USC	USC
Big 12	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
ACC	Clemson	Clemson	Florida St
Big East	Louisville	Louisville	Cincinnati
Darkhorse Title Winner	Virginia Tech	Clemson	Oregon
Title Loser	Georgia	Alabama	USC
Title Winner	USC	USC	LSU
			*cannot play in Big
			Ten Championship - I
			have Wisconsin as
			Division representative

I'd be careful about using my division picks for betting purposes. I like LSU to make it to the title game again and this time win it - lots of talent on both sides of the ball. They may have one-loss entering the game, but I feel that their win in the SEC title game will be enough to boost them to title game status. Ohio State was under-coached last year - Urban Meyer brings out the best in college recruits, and OSU has plenty of talented ones. Texas has plenty of starters coming back from a team that bounced back from a mediocre 2010 bowl-less season to an 8-5 record - I think they'll outlast Oklahoma for the crown. Florida St. could have the best defense in the nation, although they seem to be a team (like Georgia) that lately seems to lose at the worst possible times. I just basically threw a dart in my head and came up with Cincinnati -the Big East will once again be unwatchable, especially now with West Virginia leaving the conference.

We all have USC in the championship game. Everything I've heard about them makes me think they are a lock to make it to the title game. Only game I could see them tripping up on is against Oregon at home or in the Pac-12 championship game. Also, I'd be weary of their last road game against UCLA the week before their home tilt against Notre Dame. Not saying UCLA is talented, but sometimes talented teams fall asleep on the road a week before a rivalry match-up.

As far as my picks for Week 1 go, I'm going with South Carolina -6.5, Alabama -14 (hoping to get a lower number), Navy +15 & Ohio +6.5 (hoping it goes to 7). Picks are subject to change and may include additional bets. I will do my best to edit this as the bets are placed - best bet is to check my Twitter (@BrianBolek or #BolekPicks).

Hope everyone is looking forward to football as much as I am.

The Rides of March - Final Four Preview

It's getting to the end of the college season, which I'm sure some of you are mourning like me, while others are just glad their boyfriends aren't going to be watching this March Madness crap anymore.

Both games feature regular season rematches from December. Kansas continued their dominance on their home court and handled Ohio State last time around, but the Buckeyes were without Jared Sullinger, a late scratch in the game.

While Ohio State was expected to dominate the Big Ten and compete for the title this year, Kansas was thought to be in a rebuilding process - at least for them. Many projects had Kansas finishing behind Baylor and Missouri in the Big 12.

Louisville +8.5 vs. Kentucky

Kentucky downed Louisville by 7 on New Year's Eve, but were up by double digits much of the latter part of the game. As the cliche goes, these teams are a shell of what they were. Kentucky's young guns are much more seasoned, while Louisville has developed into one of the best defenses in college basketball.

At this point in the tourney, when you're betting some of these Final Four teams throughout the tourney and riding them to profit, it becomes difficult to bet against them. For me, the team that fits this bill the best is Louisville, a squad I have backed from the Round of 32 into the Elite Eight.

Despite the bet being a squarish (very public/popular) bet, I refreshed my phone in delight as Louisville covered the spread by a bucket over New Mexico on St. Patrick's Day. Five days later, I was delighted to see the Cardinals as 5 to 5.5 point underdogs versus Michigan State, the top seed in the region with a coach (Tom Izzo) who has a reputation for great coaching in March Madness.

After Louisville's convincing win there, they had to face the Florida Gators, who many sharp bettors thought had the better chance to advance to the Final Four thanks to more scoring options. It was looking that way for the first 33-34 minutes of the game, with Florida storming out of the gate with an insane shooting display. They led much of the game, mainly in the 7-10 point range, but a late rally by Louisville led -----> this guy <------ to celebrate to a third consecutive gambling win for me on Louisville.

In all, this Cardinals run netted me $800, so you can see why I may have a soft spot for them tonight against Kentucky, who I picked to win the tourney when the brackets came out. As any gambler knows though, you have to take emotion out of the equation and you have to ignore who may or may not have won you money. With Kentucky tourney games, I went 1-1 (bet on them against Indiana, against their spread versus Baylor).

This is no way to analyze a game, but stuff I must keep in mind before making an emotional type of bet on the games. I do think this is going to be a hard-fought rivalry type of game. Their December 31st matchup featured 50+ fouls, which hopefully won't get quite that high today (for fear of the referees making themselves part of the game).

Kentucky has the superior talent, while Louisville has the better team defense. I expect this to be the Civil War that everyone is dubbing it. Rick Pitino prepares his teams well after long layoffs between games, which will be one of the reasons this game stays so close. Like their last game, I say Kentucky wins, but Louisville covers.

Kentucky 67, Louisville 61 (Betting Louisville +8.5)

Kansas +2.5 vs. Ohio State

I don't have as much of a feel on the other game. The scary thing about Kansas so far is that they haven't really played that great yet despite making the Final Four. The Jayhawks escaped with a win over Purdue and could never put away North Carolina State in the regional semifinals. They were going back and forth versus UNC before saving their best three-minute span of tourney basketball for the last three minutes and eventually running away from the Tar Heels.

Ohio State has confused some bettors this year, with people not sure what they are going to get out of the Buckeyes. Come tourney time, and the Buckeyes started taking care of business. Like Kansas, they downed a 1-seed to advance to the Final Four, thanks to a strong second half performance.

While Kansas won by 11 the last time around, I'd definitely say that the absence of Sullinger was the main reason to such a convincing victory. If I decide to bet this game, I'm leaning on taking Ohio State - just not sure how convinced I am that Kansas isn't going to show its talent a little more than they have so far in the tourney.

Ohio State 74, Kansas 70

Enjoy the games everyone.

Random Damn Thems

This is Bitter Brian right now. Damn clouds.

As I sit here on the couch with my bad back for the weekend like a bitter old man shaking his cane from his chair on the porch, I figured I'd touch base on a few things that got me shaking my fist.

Ohio high schools plan on honoring Jim Tressel for their opening games

For those that don't know sports, Tressel came under the scrutiny of the NCAA in 2010 for his handling of an investigation on players of improperly selling materials they received from their 2009 Big Ten and Rose Bowl championships. After it was shown that Tressel knew what was going on and decided to hide what he knew, the NCAA initially suspended for less than the players were suspended until Tressel agreed to be suspended the same length of time. The investigation proved to be too much of a black eye to Ohio State for them to keep Tressel as coach, so they fired him. Surprisingly, Tressel was absolved of a lot of the blame for the events - the honor of blame went to quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Even former OSU players (some who probably broke rules themselves) were quick to throw Pryor into the public relations lake to watch him drown.

Now, Ohio football coaches want to honor him by wearing a white shirt and tie to honor Tressel for all that he has done for football in Ohio. To be fair, not all of the schools in the state will be honoring him from what I read, and for that, I commend them. For anyone to honor a man who is supposed to be the representation of leadership of a football team (only to disregard that in efforts to win at all costs) is disgusting. It goes to show you how demented some people are. Makes you wonder if Tressel could have murdered someone and they'd find a way to blame the victim.

People w/ bumper stickers

I was gonna write a big blog about this on its own, but didn't think I could write enough for a whole blog. I've realzed that the more bumper stickers someone owns, the more likely it is that they are a huge a-hole. College stickers are common and usually are donned on the back of the cars of parents and alumnae of schools. From there, bumper stickers outside of rooting for your favorite sports teams - ones that focus more on the hating of the opposing political party that you favor or the hating of specific groups of people - tell me all I need to know about a person. Bumper stickers tell a lot about a person. If only people wore bumper stickers around all the time, we'd be able to tell the a-holes apart from the rest of society.

The NFL & The Government

Where's Rodney King when you need him? Can't these folks just get along with each other? The NFL's battle between owners and players looks like it could drag on longer than we'd want it to. According to the players, the owners ratified an agreement 31-0 on Thursday that included material that was never discussed with the players and inserted in the last minute. If this is true, this doesn't bode well for an agreement anytime soon. I've never been on either side of this argument (owners and players are hard to back considering they're arguing about millions and billions). But if they were thisclose to an agreement and messed it up by adding stuff that was never spoken of during the player/owner meetings, then I'll find it hard to support the owner's side of things. Not to say I'll support the players as a result. I just think that any good agreement, especially one involving this much money and millions of fans looking for a solution that gives them what they want, requires good communication. And if you're throwing in last minute things, it's very shady to say the least.

Likewise, the government can't get its act together with this debt ceiling crap. I won't pretend to know much about what's going on here, but everything I've heard about it tells me that if our country defaults, then our economy is even more facked than it was before. Democrats & Republicans working together make the NFL problem seem like it's already been solved. The problem with politicians is that they are always campaigning, so it doesn't do them any good to compromise on anything, no matter how far it would go to actually help their constistuents. I don't know what will happen with this, but it doesn't seem like it's going to end well.

I'm done ranting. People are dumb. This shouldn't be surprising to anyone. I just needed to be the old man shaking his fist at the youngins who were walking on his lawn.

Damn all these people. Damn them all!