Bad Bad Beats & Why I Need a Break from Betting & NFL Week 4/NCAA Week 5

Sometimes, you just gotta take a step back to take a step forward.

I could go with many different cliches here, but I'll go with that one for now, which describes my attitude towards gambling.

I don't know how I managed it, but I went like 5-21 last week between football and baseball bets. Most of them were well thought out bets too that just fell flat on their asses.

After betting New England money line with my final bet of the weekend and seeing the final field goal go over the goal post to give Baltimore the 1 point win, it was then that I realized that I need to take a break from this crap.

It could be a week. Could be two weeks. Who the hell knows. There's just certain times with certain things where you need to take a step back, reassess what the hell is going on, then hop back in.

It was fitting that I committed to taking this week off, as within 24 hours of the hiatus, Green Bay gets one of the worst beats handed to them by the last game the replacement refs would officiate this season. Up by 5 with one play left in the game, most people who bet Green Bay (I likely would have bet GB -3 or the under) felt like their chances of victory were good, provided the replacement refs didn't do something stupid.

Lucky for Seahawks backers, they did. It broke Packers' fans and bettor's hearts alike. I hardly ever avoid betting a Monday Night game, but in this case, I'm glad I did. That would have been too much to handle.

It reminded me of some of the worst beats I've had in my gambling lifetime - ones that would scar the strongest of soul.

I'll avoid basketball bad beats because that's the sport that hands the roughest beats of all. Meaningless shots at the buzzer have done in many a gambler of college or pro basketball - especially college.

In no particular order, some good football bets gone bad.

Indiana +17.5 at Iowa (10/31/2009) - I remember this being a really windy day in Iowa, blowing in one particular direction of the field that made it virtually impossible to move the ball against the wind.

Indiana held a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter, but then Iowa scored 4 unanswered touchdowns, including the final TD with 1:12 left - with the extra point giving Iowa the 0.5 point cover. This one started a tradition for me and Tim Wolf (who also bet the game) where we fade Iowa on the Saturday before Halloween every year.

It didn't work out so well in 2010 (Iowa stomped Michigan State), but it paid off last year, as Minnesota scored the upset win straight up at home (unfortunately I only bet the spread of the game).

Chicago/Detroit Under 46 (9/30/07) - Outside of a few gamblers I follow on Twitter, I don't know many people who like to bet Unders of football games. Nobody wants to root against scoring, even if they feel like there won't be much of it to go around. This game is the game that the rare Under bettor would remember and never want to bet an Under again.

The Bears took a 13-3 lead into the 4th quarter of the game, with the Lions in scoring territory as the quarter started. Naturally they scored a TD just four seconds into the final quarter. A minute later, the Lions picked off Brian Griese for a TD. The ensuing kickoff saw Hester take one to the house. What started as a bet that looked like it was going to come in easily was suddenly being threatened with 21 points in just over two minutes of the fourth quarter.

The scoring didn't stop - the final score ended up being Detroit 37, Chicago 27. Just the sickest turn of events I've ever had with a football total.

Ohio State/Penn State Over 38 (11/19/11) - This was the sickest beat I took last year. The game started out at a great pace, with Penn State scoring a TD on its first possession of the game en route to taking a 20-14 lead into halftime.

Unfortunately for myself, that would be the final score of the game. All that was needed was a touchdown, or two field goals, or three safeties. None of these things happened in the second half of the game. Nothing happened in the second half of the game. Luckily, I was only following this one on my phone, but the pain I felt from this loss was rough.

Honorable mention: Indy -3 at Tennessee 12/9/10 - I didn't bet this (I bet the Over, but not the -3), but I had a friend (let's call him Jim Wolf) who did. Indy pretty much dominated this game throughout, but as the fourth quarter came around, the Colts gave Tennessee bettors a chance to win via "backdoor cover", which is basically a team scoring a meaningless score that covers the spread but doesn't really do anything for the actual outcome of the game.

Tennessee had the ball with just under three minutes left down 9 points and proceeded to score such a touchdown with no time left. Since the NFL forces teams to attempt the extra point, the PAT put this out of cover range (although I think Tim may have gotten Indy at 3.5/4 where it didn't matter. Even though I didn't bet it, I felt the pain of a bet gone bad for my friend "Jim".

There's probably some other big ones I'm missing, but those are the ones clearest in memory where I had a rough idea of when the game took place where I can look up a box score only to curse quietly in my head as Jen sleeps.

Anywho....

As a result of my hiatus, I can only give you "leans" on what I think will happen -  but I won't be backing these myself.

NCAA: Minnesota +7; Ohio St. +3; Baylor +11

NFL: Fool's Gold (1-2 record) - Jax +2.5 (MJD huuuuuge day against poor rush D).

Other NFL Picks: SF/NYJ Under 41.5, StL +2.5, Phil -2, Dal/Chi Over 41.5

Given that these are leans and not bets, these will probably all come in, so bet accordingly.

Have a good weekend.

#BoleksBestBets - NFL Week 1/NCAA Week 2

Now that I just got done lecturing people with my latest blog on do's and don'ts of gambling, it's time to write one of my favorite blogs of the year - the first of many gambling features on NFL & NCAA. I'll try updating this as accurately as possible. I forgot to post a lot of my NCAA plays on Saturday, which of course pretty much all ended up winners.

NCAA gambling in week 1 started out terribly, as I lost my first 4 bets placed, including taking one on the chin when I backed Navy +14.5 against Notre Dame in their game played in Ireland. After that though, it was smooth sailing, as I closed out the rest of the gambling weekend with 8 straight wins.

Lost: South Carolina -6.5, South Carolina/Vandy Over 21.5 2nd half, Minnesota -9, Navy +14.5
Won: Ohio +6.5, NIU +7.5, Hawaii +42.5, Alabama -13, Oregon team total over 54.5 points, Oregon 2nd half team under 21.5, SMU/Baylor Over 57, Georgia Tech +7.5

Overall, I ended up 8-4, +310.50. I'll try keeping this up to date (win or lose). Hopefully most weekends, I'll be able to keep this updated. For most updated picks, best to check my Twitter: @BrianBolek

Largest Spread Ever

On 5dimes, you can bet on Savannah State vs. Florida State. Question is: do you feel comfortable betting on Florida State spotting its opponent 65.5 points? That's what the line is. At some places, the line is over 70. If for some reason you think this game will be decided by 66-70 points, then maybe you want to bet both sides of the game. If you're a sane gambler, you'll probably just avoid it.

NCAA Week 2

Purdue +14 at Notre Dame - Expecting a Notre Dame letdown after a successful overseas trip. Also, Purdue has a chance to be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Ask @BerserkHippo.
Penn St. +10 at Virginia-  Penn St. looked bad in the second half against Ohio, but I think Ohio is better than people expected. This line in the preseason was at about Virginia -3, so to say that PSU got 7 points worse based on the players they lost and their Week 1 performance seems a bit much. From what I've read about Virginia, there's nothing special about them. I still think PSU will be about a 5-6 win team, and here, I think they keep it closer than the line says.
Oregon State +7 vs. Wisconsin - Playing the angle of  non-conference game, travel cross country for Wisconsin. Big Ten teams tend to struggle in these situations.
Duke +15.5 at Stanford - This is more of a gut play. Plus, what Stanford showed in its opener is that it will struggle without Andrew Luck and company, while Duke, not exactly a powerhouse in its own right, but has bowl aspirations this season and opened the season on a strong note. They are led by potential pro prospect Sean Renfree, who is the ACC's active career leader in yards and completions. I think Duke keep it within two scores.

NFL Week 1

Dallas +3.5 & Dal/NYG Over 23.5 first half - Games already bet, but I split these bets (1-1, +48.50)

KC +3 vs Atlanta - KC is highly under-rated and has a great home field at Arrowhead. Injuries devastated them last year. If I am right, they will win the AFC West this year. This will be the first step.

GB -5 vs San Fran - Check out my 49ers Fan Federation Blog for detailed analysis on this. I think Packers start season off strong, motivated by sour taste in mouth based on last year's ending.

NO -7.5 vs. Washington - Lots of hype behind RG III, but I think it'll take some time for him to get acclimated to the NFL landscape. Plus, the Superdome is a rough place for a debut. Saints roll.

Indy +10 at Chicago - Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal, and he is a great candidate to beat Cam Newton's one-year old record of rookie passing yards in a season. The Bears had a poor secondary last year. While I think the Bears will win, I think it'll be by one score, not two. Don't be shocked if there's a backdoor cover (i.e. a late score by the Colts that helps them cover the spread).


NFL betting YTD (including Fool's Gold): 1-1, +48.50 (follow me on Twitter @BrianBolek for official bets, which may include additional bets than the ones mentioned here)

Fool's Gold Pick of the Week

Tennessee +5.5 vs. New England - Nothing seems right about this line. Tom Brady - the Tom Brady - isn't even spotting more than a touchdown to second-year starter Jake Locker? What gives? Like the Bears, the Patriots had a poor secondary, which allowed teams with decent attacks to stay in games. I think Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Kendall Wright are a sufficient trio and between them will get a couple of Jake Locker touchdowns in the opener. Brady should put up points, but I believe the Titans will too. Look for this to stay within a field goal, with a possibility of a Titans upset in Week 1. I think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so you should probably bet the Under.

Fool's Gold YTD: 0-0, $0

Enjoy the start of the NFL season.

Thank God It's Thursday: Return of Mid-Week NFL & Predictions for NFL/NCAA

Welcome back Thursday Night Football. Those of us who have been following the Penn St. scandal greatly appreciate your presence, if only for a three-hour period.

Thursday night football ensures that there will be no longer than a couple of days off between games for the next 5-6 weeks. This excites me as a football fan and as a gambler.

The only unfortunate part is that the Thursday Night game usually ends up being a dud of a match up- whether it be that the teams scheduled suck or they don't really put on entertaining games. I can't recall a single Thursday night game being exciting. Probably didn't help that I was in school all of last fall on Thursday nights and thus, didn't really have a chance to watch many of the games from beginning to end.

Any who, there's tonight's game, which seems to fall into the category of "Ehhhh, I'll watch it since nothing else is on". I have a bet on it, which I'll touch base on in a minute.

Penn St Update

I wrote a Penn St. blog yesterday about an hour before the big news broke about Joe Paterno's firing. I am glad to hear that he was dismissed. While not 100% is known about the situation, I don't think this is a case where I need to know everything. Hell, who is to say that the stuff we don't know yet isn't more damning to the coach and especially Sandusky? Rumor is that Sandusky may have been pimping out kids to PSU donors - again, just a rumor, but if true, makes this sick story even more vomit-inducing.

I am not surprised about the reaction on the campus of PSU, although I wish those kids would take a step back from their idolization of Paterno and think about those victims and whether they could stomach their brother or sister, niece or nephew in those showers with a pedophile and have no one go to authorities about it.

I await to hear the rest of the story, but I don't know how well I will be able to stomach it.




Fools Gold, Week 10

Last week, we suffered a third straight loss, 5-4 now (4-3, +$10 when betting against the Fools Gold, with last week's $50 bet on the Niners being the inaugural fade of my FG read of lines).


Fools Gold Pick for the week - Jacksonville -3.5 at Indy - It seems shocking that Jacksonville can be a road favorite against anyone this year, but here we are. They are facing the worst team we have seen since the Detroit Lions 3-4 years ago. In the past, Indy would be about 10-14 point favorites with Manning as the starter here. Just goes to show you (a) how important Manning was to the Colts and (b) how much his presence was hiding other holes that the team had.

Like week 1, this is a week that I don't think I'll be betting the game, although the Fools Gold system play would be Indy +3.5. I'm actually leaning towards fading the system again. I don't know when Indy will have a better chance of winning a game this year, so this may be it for them. The FG pick is Indy +3.5


Week 10 action

San Diego -7 vs. Oakland - We got our first Thursday night game since the exciting opener between the Saints and Packers. I think the Chargers win by a couple touchdowns here. They had a great chance of being the first team to beat the Packers but dug themselves too big of a hole in the first quarter with a couple of Pick-6s. I think Rivers avoids interceptions tonight, which has been the problem all year for him. Palmer is still rusty - probably won't be himself (which is a slightly above-average QB at best) until next year.

NYG +3.5 at San Fran - I may not bet this one, but I have a bad feeling about my team this week against the Giants. This may be the game where the Niners need Alex Smith to lift the team on his shoulders. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Niners win this game by 3 at the most and likely leave the game losers for the second time this year.

NYJ -1.5 vs. NE - If it wasn't for the Penn State stuff, ESPN would be saturating us with pre-game stuff about this game. NYJ has looked much better at home than on the road and are coming off of their best game of the season in their impressive road win at Buffalo. With news that Revis will exclusively cover Welker this week, I like the Jets' chances to overtake the Patriots in the division and send the Pats reeling to their 3rd straight loss. I don't think the Pats are the same team that we remember them as, so no, I don't expect them to automatically rebound from a loss like they may have in the past.

Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas - I think there's a slight over-reaction to Buffalo's loss last week that has this line a little higher than it should be. Buffalo has a great chance to cover here and a better than average chance of winning this game. Outside of its win against San Fran, Dallas has yet to beat a good team.

Tampa Bay/Houston Under 45.5 - Houston has found itself in an unusual position as a franchise: having a strong run game and strong defense lead the way to victory. Wade Phillips' effect cannot be overstated. As I mentioned in August when dubbing Houston as a good value for their Super Bowl odds, Phillips is much better suited as a defensive coordinator. I expect this game to be ground-and-pound on both sides and a score in the mid/upper 30s, 20-16 for handicapping sake.

NCAA picks

Nebraska -3 at Penn State - I bet this when the scandal was just dominating the airwaves on Tuesday, figuring it would be a major distraction for the team. We'll see how much it holds come Saturday, but I like my chances.

Illini -1 - bounce back/revenge game

Iowa +2.5 - looking to build off of good effort vs. Michigan

Week 9	Week 10
NFL 4-2, $97.50	NCAA 3-7, -$104
Totals 1-1, -$7.50	Totals 1-4, -$95
MLs 0-0	MLs 0-0
Spreads 3-1, $105	Spreads 2-3, -$9
YTD: 35-27-3, $535.70	YTD: 18-26-1, -$268
Totals: 11-9-1, $212.10	Totals: 3-8, -$255
MLs: 4-2, $202.60	MLs: 0-5, -$260
Spreads: 20-16-2, $121	Spreads: 15-13, $247

From Penn State to the State Pen: Thoughts on the PSU Scandal

Many things in life have a gray area when it comes to ethical and moral standards.

For instance, do you steal a loaf of bread for your starving family if you have no means of paying for it?

Do you pull the plug on someone who is terminally ill and has no quality of life?

Things like these, among many others, can provide reasonable arguments on both side of the issue.

However, child molestation is not one of them. Being an accessory to it (seeing something and not reporting it) is just as bad as the act itself, perhaps even worse if the person who commits the act keeps on doing it to other youth as a result of the original acts not being reported.

This whole Penn State mess can (and probably will) have tons of books that cover this issue in a more in-depth manner. What I've just finished reading is a very disturbing account of the 8 victims of Jerry Sandusky's that were spoken of at the grand jury of the case in late 2010. Feel free to read it, but be warned that this report has graphic descriptions of acts that were committed: Sandusky case

There are several individuals mentioned in the testimony that directly observed the actions of the former Penn State defensive coordinator, including a graduate assistant for the football team. According to the grand jury report, the GA told Joe Paterno at his home about the incident and then later told some other higher-ups (to which those gentlemen have been charged with perjury for lying under oath about never having heard this information presented to them). However, one call was never placed - to the authorities.

Whether the authorities would take the allegations seriously (because of the power that Penn St. football has in the community) is a moot point. An effort has to be made by someone witnessing a crime of such horrible magnitude, especially one involving a helpless victim such as a child.

What's Happened Since the Scandal Broke

Many believe that the president of the university (mentioned in the report) will be resigning or fired from his post shortly. He has had only one comment on record since the news broke 3-4 days ago, and shockingly, it was a comment that put his unwavering support for the two gentlemen who committed perjury as they were doing all they could to save the face of Penn State football.

The grad assistant who saw the actions of one of the rapes is getting a lot of heat for not reporting what he saw to authorities, which I outlined above. While he reported the issue to the people above him, he failed to contact authorities. For this, I find his reaction (or inaction) to be despicable.

Joe Paterno has gone on record today saying that he will retire at the end of the year. He brashly stated that the Board of Trustees shouldn't waste their time on his status, seeing as though they had more important issues to deal with. His fate for Saturday and beyond is to be determined, but at the very least (assuming he doesn't pull a Favre), we will not see Paterno coach another college game after their presumed bowl game.

Joe's Role and What Should Be Done

There's no denying Joe Paterno's presence when you enter the Penn State vicinity. He has contributed nearly five decades of coaching to the program, providing tremendous amounts of time and money to the school. He's so revered, there was a statue built of him. From all accounts, outside of this incident, it appears that Joe Pa was the right face to represent the school.

However, you cannot ignore this incident and cannot ignore Joe Pa's inaction to the incidents at hand. To report this matter to your higher ups and no one else, especially when you're the face of the college (maybe even of the state), sets a bad precedent for the entire school.

No one at PSU is bigger than Paterno. He IS Penn State football. Hell, he IS Penn State to many people.

This is why he should never coach a single down of football at the school ever again. He is a symbol of what went wrong with this state institution. To let him coach Saturday and the remaining regular season and postseason games would be a slap in the face to the victims, particularly Saturday's home game against Nebraska. He'd likely have 100K strong on his side as his seniors play their last game at Beaver Stadium.

But what about the football players? Getting rid of the coach wouldn't be fair to them...Guess what? Their coach did something immoral. I feel bad for the players, who won't get to enjoy their Senior Day like many others across the nation get to. But when a clear violation of ethics is committed, you can't reward the violator by letting him dictate the terms of his dismissal - players or not. There's plenty of incidents in college sports where a current regime of players (currently USC) pays for the mistakes of previous coaches/players' mistakes. I don't think they should punish the current players by cancelling their games, but the person leading them in those games should NOT be Coach Paterno.

Some Final Thoughts

This whole story disgusts me, and it should disgust you too. I'm disgusted by not only the actions of Sandusky and those around him that failed to report the incidents in a timely matter, but also the people who can completely ignore the incident and sweep it under the rug because of how they've turned Paterno into a God at the college. Reactions by people who fully support Penn State, its coaches and staff after this incident are either people who have no kids (and thus, could not understand what it would be like to think of their kid being raped) or are completely blinded by someone they built to be a dictator of morality and everything else at Penn State.

I don't see how there could be gray area on this subject. While I do not have any children, I think of my younger cousins and young people around me and couldn't imagine how angry I would be if they were raped or molested. I think of how I might be as a father and how I might be in prison right now if someone did this to my kid.

I hear former players and some coaches spewing a bunch of crap on the matter and they all seem to support Joe Pa to the point where they think he should finish the season out. This is the typical response from athletes in controversial matters involving one of their own. If their kids had been the ones to be molested and Paterno failed to report it, you better believe they would be up in arms about him being able to finish out his coaching career in 2011.

Many alumni and fans of the team are unsure what to make of this. I have a few PSU fans - both regular readers of the blog - and they both expressed disgust over the matter. One of them just went to Beaver Stadium on Halloween weekend to watch PSU's 3-point win over Illinois, and he seems to still be processing the information and where he should go from here with his fandom. I can't blame him for this and wonder myself how I would react if this happened to my school (Illinois) or perhaps with one of the professional teams that I consider myself a fan of.


I'll leave you with one final thought: If you're wondering how you should react to this story (as if there should be a way other than complete disgust), just think - how would you feel if this was your nephew or niece, son or daughter?