Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: Denver Broncos

As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.

Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.

My fifth feature is on the Denver Broncos, the first of two AFC West fans that I found. Randy Whalen is a former work colleague who freelances for the Sun-Times Media Group covering high school sports. He has been a long-time Broncos fan, and I thank him for sharing his thoughts on the Broncos and how he became a fan of them.

Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints 
4. Minnesota Vikings

Randy has been a fan of the Broncos for 36 years.

For this generation of NFL fans, it seems hard to fathom a point in time where the Raiders were hated AND good. For Randy Whalen, his dislike of the Raiders, who were coming off a Super Bowl win in 1976, is what sparked his interest in the Mile High City.

In 1977, the Broncos were the last team standing in the way of the Raiders advancing to their second consecutive Super Bowl.

"I remember listening to the game on the radio and hoping and maybe even praying that Oakland would lose," Randy said. "The Broncos held on for a 20-17 win and went to the Super Bowl. They captured my imagination because they had never been there before."

Not that he's counting (ok, maybe he is), but Randy has been to a total of 37 Broncos games, which includes preseason, regular season and post-season. Including Denver (where he has attended 25 games), he has attended Broncos games in eight different cities, with Denver sporting a 23-13-1 record in those games.

"The memories would take volumes to go through," Randy said. "The best one was this past January when I was at the Broncos-Steelers Wild Card game where Tebow hit Thomas with the 80-yard TD on the first play of OT - pure joy and euphoria!"

He believes that Peyton Manning (his new favorite player on the Broncos) will make fans forget about Tim Tebow, provided Manning can stay healthy.

When he's not attending a game, Randy watches Broncos games at bars and has no problem following the team in a Chicago market, especially with the Internet and how much coverage the team has been getting this offseason.

Unlike some fans of out-of-town teams, you won't find him rooting against the hometown Bears though.

"I generally hope they win," Randy said, "except when they play one of my favorite teams, usually Denver or Pittsburgh. But I really don't care."

He also doesn't care for B-Bo Knows prediction of a 7-9, out of playoffs prediction for his team. Randy forecasts 11 wins and another AFC West division crown in Denver this season.

He won't say, perhaps out of caution, what the Broncos will do once they make the playoffs.

"The playoffs are wide open," Randy said.

Randy Whalen whole life in Chicago area Favorite team Broncos A fan since… late 1970s # of games attended 36 Choice of Team Consumption Bars Favorite Player(s) All-Time John Elway Favorite Player Currently Peyton Manning 2012 Prediction (11-5, AFC West Champs, No SB prediction) Vegas Projection for team 9 (as of 8-31-12) 5dimes.eu Over/under? Over Odds to win division - 5dimes.eu (+155) Super Bowl odds 17.5/1 (+1750) (as of 8-31-12) - 5dimes.eu

B List - Stupidest Sports Arguments (List 9)

I still plan on writing about the new NCAA playoff format and how it's going to cause more problems than it creates.

For now, I will mention it among six other sports arguments that I consider to be among the stupidest. This will likely have a slight Chicago lean, as I have listened to many an argument about sports from friends and strangers alike.

Here's the list of arguments that I consider to be among the most pointless.

7.  Tebow - There's no way to have a reasonable debate on Tim Tebow. He's such a polarizing sports figure that you may as well discuss your stance on abortion, gun rights and gay marriage and be more productive in talking. His critics (such as myself and anyone who likes their quarterbacks to be accurate and good) will never convince his fans (who love what he stands for and his ability to win close games) that he sucks, and his fans will never convince his critics that he is the greatest quarterback of all time. I'm convinced that ranking systems like NFL Networks Top 100 players (ranked him 95th best player in the league) and NFL Films (ranking him the 7th best Heisman winner in NFL history - a ranking that was to measure the career accomplishments of Heisman winners) were just to grab attention and ratings. Anyone who thinks Tebow has accomplished more in his short career (one in which he hasn't started a complete season) than Earl Campbell (8th) and Marcus Allen (9th) is smoking the kind of crack I'd like to smoke if I was into that sort of thing.

6. Comparing Michael Jordan to anyone - There are way too many times people want to compare the best players of the day to MJ. I discussed this in a blog almost two months ago with Kobe and how he and Lebron are often brought up by people who want to discuss today's players with the best of all time. No reasonable person would argue that these guys are better than MJ. Many times, this argument, at least from my observations, is usually addressed by the folks who are so hard for MJ that they can't wait to bring his name up anytime Kobe or LeBron does something good. "Kobe's good, but he's no MJ" or pictures of MJ flaunting his rings asking LeBron about his rings are just a few of the examples that pop up when people want to remind the world that MJ is the best. I don't think we need these comments/pictures posted on FB all the time to know that MJ is better than both of them. Let it go.

5. Old champs vs. new champs - Media and public folks do this a lot. How would (current champ) do against (some old great team), with most of the folks who are on the elderly side of the debate usually arguing for the latter. The most recent example of this was Kobe being asked if he thought this current collection of Olympians could beat the Dream Team in a game, with Kobe answering affirmatively. Did everyone expect Kobe to say, "No, you know what, I think we'd get killed." It's not in Kobe's DNA to admit that he can't do something, even if his heart of hearts believed that his current squad would have no chance. In one game, sure, this collection of guys may be able to win, but the Dream Team, whose player composition included all but one Hall of Famer, would likely win most matchups. But you know what? You can't possibly know what would happen because it can never happen. Therefore, these type of arguments are deemed pointless in my eyes.

4. Best running back ever - I've heard this many times argued among friends and on TV alike. There's only a few names that I would even consider being reasonable to discuss in the equation - including Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, OJ Simpson, Earl Campbell, and of course Walter Payton. Living in Chicago, the most common debate I heard was Payton being the best, with a few of my Dallas friends arguing Emmitt's case. It may not be the worst argument in sports, but with the way I've heard it argued, it usually turns into an ugly conversation. Perhaps that's more of a reflection of my friends arguing it than the argument itself. Since I am not old enough to have seen (or remember) many of these guys play, I can only go by statistics to say who was the best. And I don't think that's fair to the debate. I've always contended that Jim Brown was the best ever. Take a look at his stats and accomplishments if you get the chance to understand why I would think this. I'd rather not get into this argument, so I'm going to stop now.

3. BCS - For most of its existence, people have denounced the BCS as a crappy way to crown a college champion. The truth is - there is no perfect way to do this. Since there are many conferences and there's no way that teams can play completely balanced schedules, there will always have to be a human element involved with deciding who should be considered for the right to be champion (or at least play for the championship). The system that preceded the BCS was straight up voting, with many seasons in NCAA history ending without the two best regular season teams facing each other based on how the Bowl system would place teams into specific Bowls. Instead, the winner was voted on in polls before the BCS. At least with the BCS, you have almost always had two of the top 2-4 teams in the nation playing for the national championship. This new 4-team playoff is going to cause more problems than it will solve and will likely become one of its own top 2-3 dumb sports arguments out there. Whenever a selection process is used to decide who will make a playoff (as this playoff will be), you will hear about at least 2-3 teams a year (if not more) who got screwed out of a chance to play.

2. NCAA Tourney snubs - Speaking of NCAA and selection committees, one of the dumbest arguments I hear on a yearly basis is the teams who were left out of the NCAA March Madness tourney. Every year, a big part of ESPN and CBS broadcasts on Selection Sunday is devoted to the teams who barely squeaked in and the teams who just missed the tourney. Cases are made for each team who didn't make it (teams who are roughly 18-12 and lost in the second round of their conference tourney) as if they were leaving out the best team in the nation. It's gotten so bad with the tourney that they've even expanded the tourney several times in our lifetimes and people still complain about the last team who didn't make it. If you can't convince people that you are not one of the best teams in the nation when you have an 18-12 record and you don't win an automatic bid, you can't complain when you leave your team's postseason fate in the hands of a committee. The screams for the last team in are bad with the NCAA tourney - imagine how bad it will be when football gets around to their 4-team playoff.

1. All Star snubs - And the grand champion for stupid debates for me is All Star snubs. And this is by far the stupidest for me. While baseball is fresh in my mind, this also applies for the other sports who host an annual All-Star game. However, the bickering over baseball All Stars is probably the loudest (and definitely the most annoying). Even with expanding rosters, you could always find an idiot who says "My guy should have made it". Yeah, he could/should have, but who cares? In some ways, I'd rather have my guy rest for 3-4 days than go to a glorified exhibition game that most fans (at least the ones I know) don't care who wins. Even with the White Sox making a run towards the postseason, I have given little thought to the fact that they would be travelling for Game 1 of the World Series if they were lucky enough to make it that far because a collection of AL players lost 8-0 the other day. The new rule of adding a World Series stipulation to the game inspired the slogan "This Time, It Counts" from Fox for the longest time, inspiring even more annoying banter among people who say their guy should have made it and been able to help their league out in what should be a meaningless All-Star game. The emotion that is wasted when one gets sad or angry about their guy being left off a roster should instead be used to cheer that player on after the All-Star break ends. At the end of the day, the All Star game is an exhibition, whether the MLB's WS stipulation tells you or not.

Linough is Linough: The True Comparisons Made Between Lin & Tebow

Since I took my sports blog hiatus a couple weeks ago, a new "Mania" has emerged in the sports world. Just when ESPN and other media outlets thought that they were going to lose ratings/viewers with the disappearance of Tim Tebow from the news cycle, a new world-wide phenomenon started his ascent in the city that already dominated the news cycle earlier in the month with a Super Bowl victory.

Ladies and gentlemen, meet Jeremy Lin.

The undrafted Harvard point guard was out of a job on Christmas Eve when the Rockets released him right before the regular season. The season before, Lin was buried on Golden State's depth chart behind such guards as Stephen Curry & Monta Ellis and saw very little playing time.

A few days after being released, the Knicks picked him up - but they played him very little. Lin played in just 9 of the team's first 23 games, playing in less than 55 total minutes in that time.

By many accounts, he was close to being released again due to the Knicks' depth at the guard position. Luckily, injuries forced Mike D'Antoni's hand as the Knicks coach gave Linn some playing time.

In the 7 games he has played significant minutes (past 6 have been starts), the team has been undefeated. In his 6 starts, he averaged almost 38 minutes per game while averaging 24 points and 9.5 assists in helping lead the Knicks back to the .500 mark and the playoff race.

Comparisons to Tebow

As a result of this performance, Lin has dominated the social media news cycle. Any casual sports fan with a television on in the past two weeks has seen at least a handful of highlights if only watching TV minimally.

With ESPN and other major media outlets shoving the story down our throats, comparisons of the coverage have rivaled that of Tim Tebow. In this madness, people have also gone out of their way to say that their careers have had similar arcs.

I am hear to completely dispel the notion that their careers are parallel as some have been saying. Outside of the media coverage, not much is the same between the two. Since everyone loves charts, I decided to make one that compares the two on many key components of their short careers:

Name	Jeremy Lin	Tim Tebow
Sport	Basketball	Football
Position	Point Guard	Quarterback
Team	NY Knicks	Denver Broncos
Height (according to team site)	6'3"	6' 3"
Weight (team site)	200 lbs	235 lbs
Years in Pros (of current/completed season)	2	2
College	Harvard	Florida
Other Colleges That Recruited Him	Brown	Alabama
Round/Pick that each was picked	Was not drafted	1st Round, 25th pick
Main Reasons for Promotion to Starter	Injuries	Overwhelming popularity/Starting QB Inefficiency
Before he started, fans _________.	never heard of him for the most part.	were quite polarizing regarding his future effectiveness.
When he finally started, his coach ______.	had him run the offense he has always run as coach	changed team's offense around, saying they'd be screwed
		if they ran a regular offense
Team record before he started in 2011-12 season	(9-15)	(1-4)
Team's record in first 8 games started after promotion	(6-0 - does not include game preceding streak - came off bench)	(7-1)
Notable win streak	6 wins (current)	6 wins
What each man averaged during streak:	51% shooting (averaging 17 shots/game)	50.4 Completion% (averaging 20 attempts/game), 7 TDs, 1 Int
	averaging 24.3 pts, 9.5 asts, 6 turnovers,3.8 rbs per game	Averaged 146 yards passing/60 yards rushing
Downfall during streak	Turnovers	Low Completion Percentage, Bad Passes
Shooting/completion % compared to league avg	49.7% Shooting - League Average is 44.4% as of 2/16/12	46.7% Completions - League Average was 60.1%
(includes games not started - 2011-12 stats)
Most Popular Nickname for Hype	Linsanity	Tebowmania
Reasons for Sudden Hype	Long win streak, out of nowhere "feel-good" story	His fourth quarter comebacks (5 total, including 4 in a row)
Many Suspect Hype is Based on…	Race	Religion
Start of Career Hype resembles that & reminds me of…	Kurt Warner	Danica Patrick
Twitter Followers as of 2/16/2012:	380,057 (@Jlin7)	1,216,574 (@TimTebow)

I tried getting through the blog without a Lin pun, but the title itself dispels that notion.

While the chart shows some similarities, the one thing to remember is that the Lin story is changing daily and the mania is likely to level off at some point. That's not to say he can't be a solid point guard in the league for years, but I highly doubt he will maintain his averages once opposing scouts learn of his deficiencies and exploit them.

To say that their careers are similar, particularly when Lin was barely recruited (basically by those two Ivy League schools - a conference not known for their athletics) and Tebow also had an offer to play at Alabama, is hyperbole at its finest.

In either case, for fans of either player, I say the best thing to do is this: enjoy the ride, ignore the critics (including me of Tebow) and hope that their joy rides can last a little while longer.

Bye to the Hiatus: Sports Talk about Santo, Marlin$, Te-Pro Bowl

I've had writer's block, haven't really sat down by my computer after work, etc., so I apologize to the 10 of you who read my blog regularly.

And by apologize, I mean I'm not really sorry and you should write for me on my writing hiatuses.

Anywho, lots of sports stuff - might write a few blogs tonight. For now, a bulleted one.

As they always say, you're always more famous when you're dead...Ron Santo in the Hall of Fame, finally.

Welcome to the Hall, Ron. Too bad you weren't around to answer the call.

For years, Santo and his loyal fanbase lobbied for his induction into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee, which passed him over with each vote. It took the Golden Era Committee (which reviews players from 1947-1972 that have been left out of the Hall) to vote him in. A couple of points from this and the Hall of Fame in general:

1. Good for him, but why did he get voted in a year after he died? Did it take his death to get voted in?
2. The Hall of Fame shouldn't be easy to get into. It should be a selective process and reward only the game's best.
3. Santo didn't get voted into the Hall by the regular voters mainly because of the influx of guys voted into the hall during his 15 year eligibility span (over half of the time he was eligible, 4+ guys got voted in by regular committee).
4. The Hall voters are dumb. Only thing you need to know, no one, not even Babe Ruth or Ted Williams, has ever been voted in unanimously. Voters who leave certain guys off their ballots should have their vote taken away. Next example of this - Greg Maddux.
5. How can voters not vote for someone one year, then next year change their ballot to include said player(s)? Player's stats (aside from Hack Wilson's) haven't changed after they retired, so it makes no sense to leave a guy off of a ballot if you think he is a HOF. Either you think he is HOF-worthy or he is not. It shouldn't be a year-to-year thing where as a voter, you change your mind and say, you know what, he is worthy now.

The Miami Marlins have been bought by the ghost of George Steinbrenner.  First Reyes, now Buehrle. Next, Pujols? Marlins are spending like the Yankees right now. Last year, they were lucky to draw a thousand people to some games. They have a new stadium that they are looking to fill now. My guess is that it will be like the previous stadiums that opened - fun at first, but at the end of the day, people won't show up day in, day out for a losing product. The Reyes contract is going to look awful in  a few years, and if they sign Pujols, that'll make two contracts that look ugly come 2015. Reyes' game is based on speed, and with how often he gets hurt, I don't expect him to be getting within a whiff of his steal totals from the first half of his career. I consider him a bum for taking himself out of the last regular season game when he ensured himself of winning the batting title. This doesn't sound like a guy I'd want around my team.

Pujols has had 3-4 years in declining stats and is going to be an average to slightly above-average player in about 4-5 years, which means 5-6 years of dead money. Also, we assume he is 31 right now. With how often Dominicans who come to the major leagues have fudged their age, what if he is 33 right now? That would mean he would be 42-43 when this deal ends. Like I said a few weeks ago, the Cards should let the Marlins sign him. The Cardinals do not need him to contend in a weak NL Central now. And with the solid foundation of ownership that they've always had, they won't need him in the near future.

Tebow a Pro-Bowler? Not as crazy of a thought as you might think.

Never thought I'd be saying this, but I'd be surprised if Tebow WASN'T a Pro-Bowler this year. Before you think I've swallowed a couple of crazy pills and smoked a pipe, look at the AFC and look at the talent of the QBs this year by division. And by no means am I a believer in his long-term success, merely looking at this year's QB situations in the AFC. (Note: I've named the starter to be the guy who has started the most game for his team at this point):

AFC North: Big Ben, Flacco, McCoy, Dalton: Only one who will make Pro Bowl (at least initially) will be Big Ben.
AFC South: Schaub, Painter, Hasselbeck, Gabbert: No Pro-Bowlers here. Schaub, who would have made it, is out for year.
AFC East: Brady, Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, Moore: Brady will go. Sanchez is under-rated and gets too much criticism, don't see him getting in. Fitzpatrick is a sleeper for nomination. If Moore could have started the year, he may be more considered (and Miami may be a playoff team).
AFC West: Tebow, Palmer, Rivers, Cassel: Again, no one here deserves nomination. Rivers is having a down year, Palmer is still getting his feet wet.

Will get in: Brady, Big Ben
Could get in: Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Tebow
Probably won't: Rivers, Hasselbeck, Sanchez
Won't get in: Everyone else

As you can see by a breakdown, it's not too crazy to think that the Tebow hype gets him in the Pro Bowl, even though his stats don't show it. The fans get a third of the vote, remember. Also remember that Big Ben and Brady will likely bail on the Pro Bowl (playoff status or not) and there will be replacement(s) for them.

Also remember that the Pro Bowl is a useless game that no one really cares about or watches anyways, and the arguments over who doesn't get in are as pointless as the arguments about the fringe teams who don't make the NCAA tourney.

The BCS got the final game right, but there should at least be a +1 scenario in place. Just about everyone who watches college football has something bad to say about the BCS, and most believe there should be some kind of playoff. I know some people who believe a team should win their conference (whether it have a title game or not) in order to be considered. Others don't like the idea of a rematch in the title game - I have no problem with one.

However, I do think that there should be some mini-playoff, like a +1 scenario, which I understand to be a four-team playoff, with winners of semi-final games to play in championship game. In years where there are less than two major conference teams that finish undefeated, the BCS process gets critiqued. Last year, Oregon and Auburn finished undefeated, so no problems there. This year? LSU and then a bunch of 1-loss teams.

I think Bama and OK St should play each other in a couple weeks to play for the right to play LSU in champ game. Either way, I think it'd end up being Bama/LSU for the title.

Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term

Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term

Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.

However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.

Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.

Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.

It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.

Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.

Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.

For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.

A-Rod's Stats:

Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.

It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.

That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.

To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 

Week 5	Week 6
NFL 2-5, -$132.40	NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60	Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40	MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220	Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60	YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60	Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86	MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139	Spreads: 8-8, -$34