10/13/2011

Tebow Blows (Or: Lord of the Third Strings) and other NFL Crap

Teblow

If a Tebow pass falls in the forest and there's no receivers around, does it make a sound?

Denver fans- Get ready for some emotion, amazing incompletions and about 3-4 wins under the wing of Reverend Tebow.

It certainly didn't take long. Tim Tebow moved from the third string to start the year (by many accounts, he was the fourth best QB when Minnesota Gophers QB was with the team in the preseason) to starting in a month's time for the woeful Denver Broncos.

My beef with Tebow isn't so much with him, but rather the God-like status that the media and Denver fans seem to bestow upon him. At a point last year, his jersey was one of the top selling jerseys (if not the top selling) in the NFL - despite being buried on the bench for the majority of the season.

His stats this past week (4-for-10, 80 something yards, passing TD, rush TD) are nothing that screams to me "franchise savior". He did provide a spark for his team, but at the end of the day, he still lost. Imagine if Romo would have went 4-for-10 in the fourth quarter and lost a game- it wouldn't matter that he contributed two TDs, he'd be chastised for being only 4-for-10. Instead, a guy like Tebow is looked at like the Next Big Thing for his performance, which included an amazing run after catch by McGahee and the best catch of the year by Brandon Lloyd on a terrible pass. In a league of Bradys and Rodgerses, Tebow is a bottom 3rd QB.

I love the energy he brings to the game, as it seems genuine. I like that part of him a lot. I just can't stand (or understand for that matter) why Denver fans and media are making him out to be a savior.

He'll put some fannies in the seats and give the media types something to talk about. Why they talk about him, I don't know.

Then again, I took the bait and am talking about him now. Fail.

All I can say to the Broncos fans is one word: (Andrew) Luck.

Jay Walking... Barely

How is Jay Cutler able to walk? He gets sacked more than groceries, hit more than bongs at Tommy Chongs, and yet....still walking. For now anyways.

All the false starts the Bears had last week, including three in the first drive, showed me two things: (1) How scared the line was of Suh and company and (2) How terrible the line is. Granted - I already knew #2 before the game. But man - is it worse than I remember it.

To Cutler's credit, he didn't blame the line at all for all the hits he was taking. He even avoided throwing an interception despite the constant raping he took in the pocket.

By year's end, however, I anticipate Caleb Hanie starting a few games. Not because the Bears will be out of it by Week 13 or so, but because Cutler will not make it out of 2011 alive. Not behind this line.

This is more of an intimidating line than the ones encountered in Scarface.

"Say hello to my brittle friend - Jay Cutler"

Cutler may need some of the white stuff to get through the year.


The NFL Picks Corner

Fools Gold

Last week, FG suffered its first loss with the backing of Philadelphia over Buffalo. Philly looked every bit the part of a 3 point underdog (as I had them pegged) rather than 3 point favorite that they closed at. Oddmakers are trying to get me to pick them again (Philly is currently a two point favorite against Washington), but I'm going in a different direction.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Tampa Bay - After suffering a loss opening night against the defending champions, New Orleans has won its last four, including a comeback victory against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just lost its stud running back LeGarrette Blount for a few weeks to an MCL injury and suffered an embarrassing loss to my San Francisco 49ers.

This line is begging for New Orleans action. However, the Saints are on the road for the third straight week, and my gut feel here is that they are due for a letdown in the last of the three games. Tampa Bay will rely on Blount's backup Earnest Graham, who is best used as a receiver out of the backfield (a la Forte). I expect him to fill the void nicely. I expect Tampa to put Week 5 in the rear view with an upset win against the Saints.

Fools Gold Pick, Week 5: Tampa Bay +4.5
Fools Gold Year to Date: 4-1 (3-1, $65)


Other Week 6 picks:

Indy +7 at Cincy - I like the way Cincy has come out of the gate, but they shouldn't be spotting anyone 7 points, even a winless team. Cincy doesn't have an explosive enough of an offense to run away from teams. Indy will probably still lose, but not by two scores. Bet already booked.

Atl -3.5 vs. Carolina - I'd love to catch Atlanta at -3. They're only a year removed from a #1 seed in the NFC and are a solid home team. While they did shit the bed in the second half against the Packers, it's not a total surprise given the talent that Green Bay has. Carolina keeps losing close games, and I see this being another one, but this time they will lose by a touchdown.

San Fran +4/4.5 at Detroit - Following their first prime time appearance in a decade, I wouldn't be shocked to see Detroit come out a little flat against the Niners, who may have the toughest defense that the Lions have seen to date. Line is currently at 4, but I'm hoping to get it at 4.5.

Jacksonville +12.5/St. Louis +14.5 - Lumping these together because I'm likely only going to bet one of these. Likely going the StL route. Coming off of a bye, I see St Louis keeping this within a 7-10 point game. Bradford will keep the Rams in it.

Totals I am considering: SF/Det Under 46, Dal/NE over 55, Mia/NYJ Under 42.5
 
Week 5 Week 6
   
NFL 2-5, -$132.40 NCAA 0-2, -$99
Totals 1-0, $127.60 Totals 0-0
MLs 0-1 -$40 MLs 0-0
Spreads 1-4, -$220 Spreads 0-2, -$99
YTD: 20-17-3, +$181.60 YTD: 8-14, -$424
Totals: 8-5-1, +$254.60 Totals: 0-3, -$220
MLs: 2-1, $86 MLs: 0-3, -$170
Spreads: 10-11-2, -$139 Spreads: 8-8, -$34

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