Risky Coach, Rewarded Fan: Why We Should Root for Chip Kelly to Succeed in NFL

Chip Kelly is about an hour away from making his coaching debut, and I couldn't be more excited.

As anyone who has watched college football knows, Kelly's Oregon squads have been some of the quickest (in both speed of the players and the plays themselves) in the country. Last year, Oregon averaged 2.89 plays per minute of possession, which ranked 8th in the country.

Not only was their pace quick, but so has their ability to score. Here's a breakdown of Kelly's teams and where they have ranked in various categories (all stats from ESPN.com rankings except where noted):

	Points/game		Rank
2009	36.1		8 of 120
2010	46.8		1 of 120
2011	46.1		3 of 120 (Hou/Ok St)
2012	49.6		2 of 124 (La Tech)

Fourth Downs Made Made Rank Attempted Attempt Rank 2009 15 T9 of 120 22 T18 of 120 2010 22 T1 of 120 (G Tech) 32 2 of 120 (G Tech) 2011 14 T15 of 120 31 T4 of 120 2012 20 T7 of 124 31 11 of 124

The fourth-down statistics are mentioned as a way to show that he may be the type to take more calculated risks than the average coach. It will be interesting to see if this side of Kelly is brought to the NFL, as there are universally accepted theories within coaching circles as to avoiding risk when it's not necessary (i.e. going for a 4th down in a certain situation, like Bill Belichick against Indianapolis years ago or when Barry Switzer did it as a Cowboys coach - both failed in late-game situations deep inside their own territory and got absolutely ripped by national media for it). I maintain that there are too many times where coaches play "not to lose the game" as opposed to "playing to win the game" based on worries of media scrutiny and job security if the risks end up failing.

	Plays/game		Rank
2009	69.1		61 of 120
2010	78		7 of 120
2011	74.1		33 of 120
2012	82.8		11 of 124

(Stats from teamrankings.com)

	Plays per point
2009	1.91
2010	1.67
2011	1.61
2012	1.67

Why do I mention all of these statistics? It's to give you an idea of the level of excitement that Chip Kelly can bring to a team. 

I know that college and NFL are two totally different games, but remember one thing: the NFL steals from college football when it comes to offense designs. Current trendy offensive formations (spread offense, read option, pistol) have all come from college football. And not only that, but Chip Kelly's influence was already in the NFL before he was, as Belichick has incorporated the fast-paced offense that Kelly efficiently executed thanks to discussions with Kelly. There may be teams who ran offenses faster in college, but no one ran them more efficiently than Kelly did. While I don't have the rankings or specific stats on how efficient these quick offenses are (in terms of plays per point -PPP or points per minute of possession - PPMoP), I do believe that Oregon's rankings the last three years of the Kelly era in terms of PPP or PPMoP would have to be in the top 3 or 4 of the nation each year.

If Chip Kelly succeeds in the NFL, here's a few things we will see change:

1. Higher Vegas Point Totals  - Right now, a high listed point total for an NFL game as Vegas sets lines is in the mid 50s. If Kelly is able to efficiently run a quick offense, you may see games involving the Eagles approaching the low-to-mid 60s (college-like).
2. Rejoicing Fantasy Owners - You will see a lot more Philadelphia Eagles drafted than normal in a fantasy football draft, as smart owners will salivate at the prospect of owning guys who will potentially play in 10-15 more snaps than the average offensive player on other teams.
3. Copycats - As with anything that works efficiently for one team, you will see teams speed up their offenses in an effort to take advantage of defenses who may not always have the right personnel on the field for certain formations and are likely to get tired quicker. While not evident in their 28-2 drubbing to the Chiefs, the Jacksonville Jaguars have plans to run a quicker offense than in year's past, as noted to C.D. Carter in an XN Sports Interview w/ Maurice Jones-Drew during the preseason. It could be argued that his effect on the NFL is already here, based on the fact that MJD mentions that the Jaguars want to run more plays than the Patriots, who already have the Kelly stamp on them.
4. Softening on the Risk-Adverse Approach by Coaches - As I discussed in the fourth-down statistics portion of this article, one thing that is hard for NFL coaches (or coaches in many leagues for that matter) to do is to take risks that have been deemed unnecessary by the rank-and-file. If Kelly can establish a precedent where going for two-point conversions at weird points in a game (Oregon attempted 18 two-point conversions on their first touchdown of a game in Kelly's four years, converting 15) or taking chances on fourth-and-short more than the average coach, you may see more coaches take chances that they otherwise wouldn't have. Then again, this would likely depend on how secure a coach feels in his current role and whether or not he could survive the media and public onslaught.

Here's to hoping that Kelly succeeds, as I think the NFL (as with anything in life) needs its feathers ruffled every so often to improve its product even more.

Football Twitter Guide - from A thru Z

Since I'm at that point where I can't get enough of football items, I figured I would go through all the people I follow on Twitter and offer some names of folks whose tweets I will be looking forward to reading throughout the season by group. I will amend/add names to this as the season goes. Please provide your own folks for these subjects. Also, if I forgot your name, don't be afraid to tell me and I'll use my discretion on recommending you!

Fantasy Sports:

@CDCarter13 - Just started following him, but based on the few days I have, will be a valuable resource for those looking for fantasy football thoughts/advice. His affiliation with XNSports (formerly SportsJerks) is enough for me to recommend him.

@LordReebs - Originally started conversing w/ Rich last year through our 49ers affiliation, but soon grew to learn of his fantasy football knowledge. Writes for XNSports (formerly SportsJerks), which has a much different take on fantasy football than your average fantasy sports site.

Investors (Most of these people I've followed thru at least one NFL season - at the very least thru one or two betting seasons):

@andrewssports - Offers a bookmaker's perspective, which is something I enjoy hearing. Will occasionally tweet out some of his picks.

@behindthebets - If you are looking for a good capper who uses his powers for good (accessing most of his picks @BTBPicks requires proof of donation to charity), you'd be hard-pressed to get a better one.

@beatingthebook - His weekly podcast (released on Fridays) is worth the follow alone. While his actual picks are on a site which requires paid membership, Gill usually has some good guests on the NFL podcast which get you thinking about different aspects of NFL betting.

@bettingtalk_ - While I'm not sure how their new site will be, their old site/handle (Beyond The Bets) was a great window into the Vegas community - information galore. This recommendation is based on reputation of old site.

@Big_East - Not sure how his tweets will be now that he has joined forces with a site that requires paid membership for picks, but anyone who has followed his history knows that Big_East is the real deal.

@DavidPurdum - Solid writer who covers Vegas/gambling biz. Provides useful information that can help with your wagers.

@ESPN_Colin - One of the strongest public advocates for sports wagering. His Blazing Five picks were "Off The Charts" hot last year. You may find his radio show annoying, but don't take his takes on Vegas lightly.

@FlopFlippity - Doesn't tweet as much as he should, but does offer occasional picks. Unofficial member of #BolekMadness

@HeHaithMe - One of the few guys recently who has gone the way of paid services for picks. He was absolute money on MAC games last year.

@hustledouble - well-rounded capper who has a writing itch that needs to be scratched like yours truly. Offers good insight on his picks. Becoming one of my more frequent daily conversationalists on Twitter.

@JoeFortenbaugh - A writer for the National Football Post, provides solid capping and fantasy football thoughts. A frequent contributor to the @beatingthebook podcast.

@kalind_totals - the master of the totals (NFL/NCAA). Kalind & I will occasionally appear this season on @SportsMula, an up-and-coming sports site for sports fans.

@KegsNEggs - Head college writer for Bleacher Report. He always has a few bets going on any given Saturday.

@lindetrain - Another guy in Vegas who tweets a lot about the industry. I don't recall him tweeting much about his picks, but does provide good gambling info.

@NotTheFakeBruce - Just started following him, but based on who recommended him to me, I can put my recommendation on him. Look for Bruce and myself to provide some NFL picks on @SportsMula.

@notthefakeSVP - Along w/ Cowherd, the voice of the gambler for ESPN. Frequently discusses gambling angles through Twitter as well as his nationally syndicated show.

@ScottinVAN - Frequent tweeter who often posts about his gambling goings-on. Wears his wager on his sleeve as his bets are going on (not a bad thing).

@SheaInIrving - Known best for his calls into the DP Show, provides just as much entertainment with his tweets about gambling and sports.

@SportsInsights - While maximizing their site would require payment (which I haven't done), you should still get a lot out of following the occasional posting that they offer. Big proponents of reverse line movement.

@Stuckey2 - While many don't like him for his occasional brashness, Stuckey is a solid, steady capper. Almost always want to be on the same side of him when it comes to Baltimore Ravens games (p.s. he likes Denver in Week 1 & Baltimore Under 8.5 wins)

@ToddFuhrman - Vegas insider who knows his stuff. He provides solid gambling advice and thoughts on ToddsTake.com.

@tomf_18 - While he doesn't post picks, Tom does make me laugh my ass off with some of his takes on certain aspects of betting and life. The person who I've gone on the most Vegas trips with.

@twolf2123 - While he doesn't tweet all that often, I recommend him if and when he does tweet. Very good personal friend of mine.

@WagerMinds - My favorite WagerMinds tweets are ones where he tells people to "Tear Up Your Ticket". For the first time last year, one of those alerts ended up causing bettors to paste together their picks. Has a good site for those who want to dip their feet into gambling waters w/o actually gambling.

Just Football:

@AndrewPerloff - Dan Patrick's go-to guy for NFL matters and occasional writer for SI. Weekly segment on DP Show (usually on Fridays) of Against the Grain is almost always entertaining (especially when it involves props) and occasionally informative.

@Ben_Jones88 - Been following him since the Sandusky trial. Reports on Penn State matters. Provides different takes on matters; will be a future sports voice, whether it be in college sports or otherwise.

@BerserkHippo - A personal friend of mine. College football is his sport - a lot of tweets on Big Ten teams, especially his favorite team Michigan. Also, check out his podcast on his site of the same name, where he and co-host @LionEsquire will occasionally discuss football matters.

@Brad_Zoe - He changes his handle every now and then (this is what it is for right now). Loves tweeting up his thoughts on sports - definitely some interesting takes on certain things. Probably the most sporadic tweeter I know, so be ready for some tweets on other subjects that a male in their young 20s will tweet (you've been warned).

@HubbuchNYP - Has the NY/NE angle of sports covered. Never afraid to be critical, at the expense of people calling him a homer of (insert rival team here).

@JasonLaCanfora - Provides solid NFL news for CBS Sports.

@JayGlazer - If there's a scoop, Jay knows about it. Also handles Twitter trolls as well as anyone I know.

@LionEsquire - Another personal friend of mine. He doesn't tweet often, and pending marriage stuff will likely inhibit this further. You can catch his football thoughts on Berserk Hippo's podcast from time-to-time.

@LostLetterman - Frequent posts/news on college football matters.

@MikeFreemanNFL - Just moved from CBS Sports to Bleacher Report. I enjoy his posts/takes on NFL matters, and like Glazer, enjoy his handling of trolls.

@PFF - For the more sophisticated, analytical football fan. PFF grades every position on a +/- scale and are relied upon by just about every respected football expert.

@RichEisen - master of the NFL Network. Also has a highly-acclaimed podcast with high profile guests.

@SI_DougFarrar - Writes about NFL-related items for Sports Illustrated, with a long history of writing about the same subject for Yahoo. My favorite tweets of his involve hypocrisy of NCAA.

@SportsMula - A site I just started contributing to recently. The site has strong aspirations to give a different take on sports with writers who are looking to make a name for themselves.

Niner Nation (Grouping us all together - since it is a Nation, after all)

@AdrianPorterfi2

@GafflezMalone

@JedYork

@Kokopelli_49ers

@LordReebs

@TheDopeyOne

@Woods49ers

NFL vs College Football: Which Brand of Football Do You Prefer?

In about 48 hours, the college football season kicks off with North Carolina and South Carolina butting heads on ESPN. A week and an hour later, the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens head to Mile High to face the Denver Broncos to start up the NFL slate of games that count.

Many of us watch both brands of football; some of us intently watch an equal amount of Saturday and Sunday football, while others have a true football love. The stories below reflect those who have true ties to one or the other.

The College Guys

Kalind

In discussing his love of college football, Kalind (you can find him on Twitter - @kalind_totals) reflects on a childhood rich with memories of Saturdays past spent watching college football with his dad.

"I have been watching college football for as long as my eyes could focus on a TV if you let my mother tell the story," Kalind said. "She says my father held me on Saturday afternoons while he watched."

His first college football memories come from watching the Florida Gators (his hometown rooting interest at the time) taking on Georgia in 1980. Watching the Gators lose on a late touchdown from Buck Belue to Lindsay Scott broke young Kalind's heart, but set in motion a lifelong love of the sport.

"The collegiate atmosphere is what stands out to me," he said. "The Swamp, Autzen Stadium, The Big House, The 12th Man, Death Valley. Gets no better."

He cites the evolution of offenses (from the wishbone to the current trend of the spread) and coach's constant pursuit of finding mismatches as other drawing points to his fascination with the college game over the pro version.

Due to his investing into the games, Kalind no longer has a particular rooting interest in any team but does consider the SEC his favorite conference to watch.

"I enjoy watching the SEC for the tradition in rivalries and the diverse approach to the game itself," he said. "Their ability to be a defensive minded conference yet have skilled enough offensive players to destroy opponents is what draws me to the conference. They have a complete balance of TEAM concept where neither side if the ball is solely responsible for winning games.

"The talent level is directly linked to the passion the South has for the sport from youth league up through college and the parents are just as dedicated and passionate as their sons who play the game."

Kalind's Saturdays are spent in his lab, notepad in hand with games he is investing in or planning on investing in, with remote control close by so he can enjoy the DirecTV package that he purchases every college football season to its fullest potential.

"The outside world doesn't matter much on Saturdays," he said. "I may come up from my lab for the occasional breather but for the most part this is a job I take seriously."

As far as surprise teams go for this season, he considers Boise State and Northwestern as teams who have a great shot at making some noise this season. However, he doesn't think Northwestern's schedule lends itself well to consistent defensive efforts, as Kalind believes they will be facing strong rushing attacks from the fifth week of the season onward.

And the championship game?

"BCS title game will be Oregon vs Georgia." he said. "The shoot out we have been waiting for has found itself in the Rose Bowl on Jan 6th with Oregon taking the last drive of the game to win and stop the dominance of the SEC to the tune of 41-40. This will be an explosion of two of the very best offensive teams college football has to offer and it will usher in what many college football fans have wanted for quite some time, a playoff system."

Nick

Nick doesn't subscribe to the DirecTV package like Kalind does, but he does take in a lot of games each Saturday (he sets up three televisions in his living room to watch as much live action as possible). The amount of games is definitely one of the draws for him when it comes to his love of college football.

"The volume of games is just so much higher," he said. "Without buying Sunday Ticket, the most NFL games a person could see at home in a given week is 5-6, but there are times where on a given Saturday there are that many games on TV at the same time. More games increases the chance that one of them will be awesome.

"College football moves faster, and it's more exciting. Because the skill level isn't as high, things can change so quickly and the volume of exciting/big plays is much higher."

Like Kalind, Nick appreciates the atmosphere that surrounds college football and its fans.

"The students represent a different kind of fan than what the NFL has," he said. "It's much cooler to see the student section going crazy than some 45 year old guy with his face painted. There's also the mascots, the cheerleaders and the bands. The fact that players can only be there for four years means that there is a freshness to things that you can't get in the NFL."

His earliest memories of college football stem from a few Big Ten teams making Rose Bowl runs (Wisconsin & Northwestern), but his true love of the sport (and of the University of Michigan football) started when he attended college in the early 2000s, even though his school didn't have a college team.

Nick's Saturdays in the Fall are full of TVs and games, dedicating himself to this setup from the moment games kick off at 11am CST till the late games end about a half day later.

When asked about who will surprise this season, Nick provided a conference who he thinks will sneak up on people.

"It's really hard in any sport, in the Internet age, to call things a surprise because everyone gets so much coverage and everyone has a "surprise" team," he said. "I think the Pac 12 is better than everyone gives it credit (even outside of Stanford and Oregon), so I think the "surprise" could be them being much better and deeper than anyone is looking at. UCLA, Washington, Arizona and Arizona St. all got votes but are outside of the top 25. Lots of talent on those teams."

In fact, he has a PAC-12 team in his championship game. Nick's title game features Alabama winning its third straight title over Stanford.

"If this was year one of the new playoff system, I would throw Georgia and Clemson in as well," Nick said. "Clemson has a history of shooting themselves in the foot which is why I won't pick them to make it outright, but they have a ton of talent."

The Pro Peeps

Brad


The youngest of the interviewees for this series, Brad's first memories of watching the NFL aren't much different than many of us born/raised in the 1980s.

"My earliest memory of watching the NFL is when I was a child, maybe 4 or 5," he said. "My dad showing me Bears games he recorded on VHS! Seeing Walter Payton's incredible runs."

Runs like that help define what Brad loves most about the NFL.

"The skill level of the NFL players and coaching is leaps and bounds better," he said.

In his lifetime, the game has changed and put more of a focus on player safety. For that reason, Brad's favorite part of the NFL has changed along with the times.

"It used to be the blind-sided hits and crack back blocks," he said. "Now, it's wide receiver routes. A beautifully run route to separate from a defensive back is beautiful."

The Sunday routine for Brad consists of a wake-up call around 10, pigs in a blanket about an hour later, which leads him right into game-time. Assuming they start at noon, the Chicago Bears dominate his airwaves, then it's the RedZone channel till Sunday Night Football comes on.

In the first potential cold-weather Super Bowl, Brad has a match-up of Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos facing Atlanta, with Peyton and company prevailing to win the Lombardi Trophy.

As far as surprise teams go, Brad went the opposite route of the others here and gave his surprise team to flop on its face this year.

"My surprise team this year is the Patriots. They will be bad...really bad," he said. "Tom Brady, for the first time in his career, has bum options to throw to."

Tim

Going to a Division I school isn't necessary for people to become fans of college football. In the case of Tim, it's one of the many reasons why he just can't get into college as much as the NFL.

"I never been able to make the attachment as a fan to any college team as it doesn’t seem natural and I can’t generate the same passion as the ones that did go to a Division I school," he said. "(Also), I think there are just way too many college teams and the product seems to get watered down."

His earliest memories stem from a team that he now despises - the 1985 Chicago Bears. Since then, he became a huge Dallas Cowboys fan (dating back to their dominance in the early 1990s). The national exposure and exciting players (citing the Irvin/Aikman/Smith triplets) sold him on the team that he continues to love.

So we already heard what he dislikes about college football. What exactly does Tim like about the NFL that makes it so special?

"The competition and parity are my favorite parts of the NFL," he said. "It seems like any team can win on any Sunday. And once playoffs start, throw out the records and watch a wild card team go on a run and take the whole thing."

Like Nick, Tim has a three television set-up that goes from noon till close. The DirecTV package comes in handy for this, allowing for Tim and his company to watch the games of their favorite squads. Getting the smoker or grill started beforehand is also a crucial aspect of Sundays for Tim, who treats his company to a variety of delicious cooked meats throughout the football season.

One surprise he believes is on the horizon for the 2013 season - a bounce back season from Kansas City.

"I like the Chiefs to be a lot better this year with a competent coach now (unless it comes to managing time or his timeouts) and a quarterback that is efficient and  does not turn the ball over," he said. "He is surrounded with some dynamic weapons and a coach that does a good job of getting the most out of his quarterbacks. Their defense will be the biggest question mark/downfall."

The obligatory prediction business - Tim has Matt Ryan as a legitimate MVP candidate, with Ryan leading the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl victory over the Houston Texans to cap off the 2013-14 season.

And his final predictions?

"I like a couple of sophomore slumps to rear its ugly head with Wilson, RGIII and Luck," Tim said. "With more tape out on these guys now, I see defensive coordinators adjusting and slowing them down some. I think Luck’s style makes him the most likely to avoid the slump."

America's Scummiest Home Videos & Other NCAA Musings

Who would have thought that the focus of Final Four week would be more so off the court than on it? Some items of note:

• Did you see the Louisville guy (Kevin Ware) break his leg on TV Sunday? I didn't - and I have no intention of ever seeing the video of it! If you try showing me the video, I will not watch it. I accidentally saw a picture of it when Jen had it up on the computer or phone. I heard how bad it was, and I saw enough of the reaction of the players on both Louisville and Duke to know that I don't want to see it. I'm glad CBS didn't do what the broadcasters did 30 years ago when Lawrence Taylor snapped Joe Theismann's leg, and the coverage apparently showed slow motion replays of it non-stop. I can go without seeing the Ware injury.
  
• And to think college video from the week couldn't get more ugly to watch, there was the Rutgers incident. The video of the former Rutgers basketball coach Mike Rice circulated, showing Rice basically playing a one-man game of dodgeball with the basketballs at practice (except he was only doing the throwing.) Even though this video has been in the hands of Rutgers personnel for months, it took world-wide exposure for them to fire Rice. Sadly, there is more psycho coaches out there that systematically mentally and physically abuse players from the lowest levels of sport all the way to the top. The more successful your team is, the more acceptable this abuse becomes (see Bob Knight). Unlike the others, Rice was caught on tape.
  
  And to those who say the boys should have stuck up for themselves, it's always easy for us to say this. We say this about victims of all types of crimes in society, particularly physical abuse and rape. It becomes a case of blaming the victim ("I would have stuck up for myself," many say). Yet when people get put in that situation, they are often so mentally abused that they don't feel like they can get out of the situation by defending themselves from such abuse. Instead of implicitly blaming the victims, we should sympathize with them and realize their situation was not the easiest to deal with. Many of these guys have professional aspirations. If they lose their scholarship, the road to getting the seasoning required for attention from the professional ranks becomes a much more difficult one. It's easier for some of these guys to take the abuse and gut it out than it is to risk the chance of getting kicked off the team for ratting on their abusive coach.
  
  It doesn't make it right for what coaches like that do - we just need to understand that it's not the easiest thing for these players to report their coach for such abusive behavior. It makes me think that all colleges, if they don't do so already, be required to film all of their practices for compliance purposes of player safety from abusive coaches.
  
• Two Pac-12 teams hired coaches. One just finished a Cinderella run as a 15-seed in the NCAA tourney with Florida Gulf Coast and moved to USC for an incredible pay raise (Andy Enfield). The other didn't even have time for the ink to dry on his 10-year extension with New Mexico (Steve Alford) before bolting to UCLA. More on Alford later.
  
• Oh, and I almost forgot about the Auburn football scandal, which has a little bit of something for everybody - robbery, bribes, murder. Ok, not murder. Just wanted to see if you were still paying attention. 

More college thoughts/rants

If you haven't heard a head coach in college football or basketball lie to you recently, you haven't been paying attention to any time they open their mouths or you have your television on mute.

Sure, there are some college coaches that might have some shreds of morality, but I'm not sure who those guys are. When you hear a guy has signed an extension with a school, all that means is....well, nothing. It doesn't mean the guy is going to stay with your school for 10 more years. It doesn't mean anything.

Most (if not all) of these big money contracts these guys sign includes a buyout clause jusssssst in case they get a better offer or opportunity somewhere else.

Did you take a look at all the coaching changes that occurred this offseason in football? It was a domino effect that seemed to touch about a quarter of the BCS-based teams. Then there were some coaches like Les Miles who helped get himself an extension by "showing interest" in the Arkansas job. I put that in quotes because it's debatable whether there was any interest or if it was merely a ploy to get more money.

Going back to Alford, who the hell signs a 10-year contract with a team (which he was lucky to get to begin with, considering how little Alford has done to earn it in his NCAA tourney appearances) and then bolts days later? On the Dan Patrick Show, he said he gets a lot of calls, but the call from UCLA is different because it's UCLA. Like hundreds of college coaches in the major sports, this guy is going to preach loyalty and committing to a team when he's literally a phone call away from being wooed away from that locker room.

It's one of the main hypocritical things that bother me about college sports, right next to the free labor that the NCAA and coaches get from the players and the dumb transfer rules that cause players to sit a year when they want to transfer to a new school.

Argue all you want, but you'll never convince me that these players don't deserve at least some form of payment? You say their scholarship should be considered their payment, but how many of these guys even get their degrees? Most of these guys in basketball, especially the NBA-caliber guys, are 1-2 year rentals who 

These unpaid servants of the NCAA are the ones whose talents create a product that is worth billions of dollars. And who reaps the benefits? The coaches who can bail to another school whenever they want. The NCAA administration folks, whose morals are even lower than the coaches.

And since when does a coach need a 10-year contract for a security blanket?

The most baffling thing about the Alford thing, outside of him getting an extension, was that he needed such a lengthy extension. Are these decade-long contracts really necessary for teams to show their "loyalty" to certain coaches or to prove to the coaches that they want them around for a while? Do you have any idea how many coaches in both college football and college basketball have been with their current schools for 10+ years?

Well, thanks to Wikipedia (and I know people can enter in information on that site at will, but to the best of my knowledge, the data looked accurate), I broke down both sports based on length of coaching tenure. Below are the percentage of coaches who have been with their current schools for a decade or longer.

College basketball: 52 of 347 (15%) - look at the top 10 list below. Unless you're a big time college basketball fan, good luck knowing more than two names on that list.

College football: 10 of 125 (8%)

And here are the numbers for new coaches to their respective teams entering the 2013 seasons of their sports:

College basketball: 35 of 347 (10%)

College football: 31!!! of 125 (25%) To think, I thought I was exaggerating with the quarter of NCAA teams changing coaches seemingly. Seemingly ended up being true...

I'm not sure if this data is consistent throughout the years, but that means if you picked a coach at random in college football, you're 3 times more likely to pick a team who hasn't coached a down at the current school as you were to identify a coach who's been at a school for a decade or longer.

Alford was at New Mexico for six years, so he was less than five years away from making it to 10. However, as is the case with many of these coaches, they get bored at certain jobs or get wooed by better ones.

No one is going to argue that UCLA basketball doesn't sound sexier than New Mexico basketball - no doubt, UCLA's history is hard to ignore. But you just signed a 10-year deal days before! You said you wanted to stay there and be there for years to come. Then you bolt at the first call you get from UCLA?

At the very least, if the NCAA isn't going to change its transfer rule with the athletes switching schools, they should make coaches sit out a year before transferring to a new school to at least show some consistency in its policy. However, that would require the NCAA to do something it is incapable of doing.

After all, if players who continue to get paid squat keep making these guys a collective billions, then why would they want to change anything? The system works best for those on the top of the food chain: the big conference adminstrations, athletic directors, coaches, and most importantly, the NCAA. Let the free labor reign.

Ties Suck

(Article I wrote for my fantasy football league)

I went to the Bears game and was watching the end of the 49ers/Rams game on my buddy's cell phone (he has Sunday NFL Ticket on his phone). Instead of watching the end of what was expected to be an easy win over an inferior opponent, I actually had to root for a tie as Bradford had the ball with less than two minutes in overtime.

Fortunately (I guess), the Niners didn't lose the game. But they didn't win it either. A tie? A tie?

Yes, a mother f'in tie.

Ties of any sort, of any kind, totally suck.

Want proof? Guys take ties off at weddings once they don't have to wear them anymore. They're restricting. Sure, your girl likes them, but they suck.

Need sports proof? College football outlawed ties when they instituted their overtime system almost 20 years ago. Likewise, hockey realized that people don't want to see ties, so in the regular season, if there is no score in the 5-minute overtime, there is a shootout.

Surprisingly, the NFL is the last sport that counts in America (sorry all other sports not named baseball, football, basketball and hockey) that has a possibility (albeit a very minute one) of there being no victor at the end of the day.

How do soccer fans do it in Europe? 1-1 draw. Scoreless draw? Even worse. (Any soccer fans here, I don't need a lecture on how I should appreciate the sport - it's boring.)

In my first competitive fantasy football money league, I was in a league where there were no fractions of points, so there were chances of getting ties in games, as opposed to the decimal system which makes it very difficult. In that rough season, I started the year with 10 straight non-winning weeks, including two (Yes, TWO) ties. When you tie and your team sucks, you might as well have lost the game.

When your team is good and it ties, you still have that "ehh" feeling.

No one should want a tie or root for one. If I ever tie in this league, I may bust out a few dozen F-bombs.

Never Leave the Table When You're On a Heater - Week 8 Picks

It only took me three weeks of NFL to give myself a personal bye from gambling. It was that bad of a run.

After that week break, it only took me a couple weeks for me to finally say that I'm about to hit my in-season run of a lifetime.

With the help of a spreadsheet I've created that shows how much a team wins or loses against the spread on a weekly basis (thanks to Covers.com for the numbers), I've figured out a good way to find great spots to bet teams who are either coming off of two or three straight games where they don't cover or even better, fading teams who are riding 2/3 straight covers.

The bigger the covers, the more likely I fade them.

The bigger the losses, the more likely I bet them.

We'll see if it works, but I'm liking the results so far.

From Week 6 to Week 7 -

Houston goes from getting destroyed by the Packers (losing to the spread by 22) to winning by 23.5 against the spread against Baltimore (look to bet Baltimore in Week 9 - they've lost five straight games against the spread - the only team with more than three straight games without a cover).

Jacksonville lost two straight games against the spread by a total of 48 points. They get a bye week and an inflated line against a subpar Oakland squad who was spotting Jacksonville 6 points against the spread. Jacksonville holds the lead most of the game, blows it, but still covers the spread by a field goal.

Pittsburgh has a prime-time loss against the lowly Titans, giving the Steelers their third straight non-cover. In Week 7, they fell behind 14-3 against the Bengals but took over the game from the second quarter one and ended up winning and covering. Like Baltimore, I plan on betting Cincinnati after their Week 8 bye since they have failed to cover in three straight.

The Bears got a week to rest in Week 6 after three impressive wins (covered by an average of 17 points/game). They were covering most of the Detroit game but lost it on a touchdown with less than a minute left, allowing Detroit backers (like this guy) to cash in. Sure, the Bears could (and should) have covered it, but they didn't. And since they failed to cover by the slightest of margins, perception of them is still positive. I find a second-week fade of the Bears to be in the works.

I don't know if I've stumbled into something good to use for the rest of the year and perhaps in future years or if I'm over-thinking this stuff. It's worth a shot for now since I've taken a look at this year's data and saw that there's great value in fading teams with (1) a mini-streak against the spread or (2) coming off a couple huge wins against the spread. Likewise, while it may feel icky to bet crappy teams like Jacksonville to cover, betting teams who have racked up several bad losses in a row are likely to have a point spread that is more of a reflection of their recent streak than what the team actually is. Even if you gain a couple points based on this perception, you gain an advantage.


Week 9 Picks

Fool's Gold (5-4 record) - Pick 1 Car +7.5 at Chicago...You look at the line and you can't believe it. How is Carolina not a 10+ point dog to the Bears, considered by many to be a top-3 team in the league? After all, Carolina's offense is a mess/the Bear's defense capitalizes on team's mistakes like no other. The Bears have a good rushing attack and a QB who hasn't made as many mistake this year, save the Packer debacle. Some interesting stats between the two teams: Carolina (5.9 yards/play - T6th), Chicago (5.2 y/p - T23rd); Chicago D (4.9 y/p - T-3), Carolina (5.5 - T 17th). Both teams average more per play than they allow on defense. What this means, I don't know. Just really wanted to distract you from the fact that Carolina is my Pick in this Fool's Gold that is begging for Chicago money.

Pick 2 Atl at Phil (-3) - Say what? The league's remaining undefeated team is an underdog to a team who has limped to a 3-3 record, a team who hasn't won a game by more than two points? Both teams are coming off of a bye, but Andy Reid prepares as well on byes as he does on increasing the size of his thighs on a daily basis. Atlanta allows the 8th most yards per play (5.9) while the Eagles are one of the better teams (5.1). I expect Vick to have his best game against the Falcons game (no turnovers). I also expect McCoy to have his best day of the year against the Falcons (only the Bills allow more than the Falcons' 5.2 per carry). Philly wins by two scores.

Other Picks: Det -1, Pitt -4.5 (Already bet TB +6.5)
Other Possibles: Dallas (if it gets up to 3+), Denver -6 (NO has had 3 straight covers), Mia +2 (NYJ has had 3 straight covers), KC -2


Limited NCAA leans: Penn St, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Nebraska. With my bad Saturdays lately, I'm looking to cut back. Feeling my NFL roll right now

NFL News & #BolekBestBets - NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4

Good afternoon NFL fans and betting buddies of mine.

I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.

Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:

1. Overreaction to Week 1 gives way to Overreaction to Week 2. If you live in the Chicago Bears market, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Week 1 - Bears destroy Colts and they're Super Bowl bound. Week 2 - they lose to the Packers (last I checked, the Packers are pretty damn good) and now the world is falling. This happened with a few teams (Packers, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, etc). Odds are, your team that rotated wins and losses in Week 1 with differing performances in the games is probably not as good as their win and not as bad as their loss shows. Calm down, take a breath, and enjoy the rest of the season.
2. Too much fluff on these sports shows. The fact that I heard that Eli threw for over 500 yards, which has only happened a handful of times in history, about 1000 times less than the last play spat between the coaches is pathetic. Why is so much time spent on stuff that has little/nothing to do with the outcome? Are we so dumb as sports fans that they're catering to our supposed need for this? I'd like to think most people I know are better than this. I care about results, what happened to get to those results (i.e. stats). I don't need TMZ-style analysis entering ESPN and other sports shows.
3. If you got a ring, it don't mean a thing. Tom Brady yells at his offensive line. Peyton Manning yells at his offensive line. Aaron Rodgers yells at his offensive line. Jay Cutler yells at his offensive line. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Jay Cutler.
   
   Peyton Manning makes a big mistake in a playoff game and throws a pick-6 to the Saints to help New Orleans seal their Super Bowl win years back. Despite having the best record in the past 7 years, Tom Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in that time. Tony Romo fumbles a field goal snap that costs his team a chance at winning a first round playoff game. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Tony Romo
   
   I'm not saying these guys (Romo and Cutler) shouldn't get blame for the mistakes that they make, but please have some perspective and realize that these other guys make mistakes too. If Peyton hadn't beaten the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears to win his lone Super Bowl, his mistake against the Saints would have been the main story of the Super Bowl, not the Saints winning their first Super Bowl.
   
   The media and general public tend to forgive the mistakes of QBs who have won Super Bowls. Keep in mind, there's only a handful of current QBs who have won a Super Bowl: Rodgers, both Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, Brees (six total QBs). Any QB not on this list who is considered good/great will eventually hear it from media/public if they fail to make the next step.
   

NCAA Week 4

K State +15
Baylor -8.5

Temple +7.5

USC -16.5

NFL Week 3

Fool's Gold Pick (0-2 so far) Oakland +4

San Fran -6.5 (falling for the trap)

NE +2 (or ML)

Cle +3

Ariz +3.5

Dal -7.5

I'm out of Survivor League for Don after picking New England like a sucker. If I was still alive today, I'd pick Dallas this week.

I don't have updated records - but for NFL, I know they're bad. I won my under bet last night, so I'm hoping I can get some betting momentum heading into the next couple weeks.

Good luck to everyone this week on bets and fantasy.

#BolekBestBets - NFL Week 2/NCAA Week 3

Week 2 NFL Theme - Redemption Song


Yikes!

Looking to sing the Redemption Song this week after a bad start to my NFL gambling  in Week 1

I hope you didn't follow my bets from the blog last week, at least the NFL ones. I went 3-1 on the NCAA picks, but my overall NFL record was a perfect mess.

On the Sunday bets, I recorded an 0-6 record. I didn't end up betting the Colts (which was obviously a good thing).

Here's a rundown of my bets from Sunday and how bad they lost by the spread:

KC Moneyline (lost to Atlanta 40-24) -16
Ten +5 (lost to New England 34-13) -16
NO -8 (lost to Washington 40-32) - 16
GB -6 (lost to San Fran 30-22) - 14
Car/TB over 45.5 (26 combined points) - 19.5
Pitt/Den under 45 (50 combined points) - 5

If you average those out, I lost my bets by over two touchdowns PER BET. I admit it was easier to stomach being completely wrong on most of these than to squeak out losses on the games.

Luckily, MNF I was up a little bit, going 3-2 with my bets (won first half Cin/Balt over, SD/Oak under, SD in-game next-score; lost Cin +7, in-game Cin/Balt under).

The good thing is - I remain confident and am not just firing bets out there at random. No steam bets, no large wagers to chase losses, none of that shit. Too many times, I used to do that, only to dig myself a bigger hole.

Let's look at next week, shall we?

Fool's Gold - Week 2

All right, all right, all right!

Last week's fool's gold highlighted (or in retrospect, lowlighted) Tennessee Titans as having a good shot of covering/beating the Patriots, who much of the public was craving to bet. That, of course, is the theme of Fool's Gold. This is meant to highlight a particular game that the average Joe Public bettor thinks is "just too good of a line to pass up", only to realize he was wrong in his assessment.

Looks like my foolish ass was wrong in Week 1, but I look to change that in Week 2. There are several good candidates this week. I considered Jacksonville +7 vs. Houston; Seattle +3.5 vs. Dallas; and St Louis +3.5 vs. Washington, but this week, I want to highlight the ultimate Fool's Gold pick, a rare road underdog that has the love of the general public.

Baltimore enters Week 2 as a popular pick with Vegas spotting them 2 points against the Philadelphia Eagles, who struggled to beat a Cleveland Browns team considered by many to be one of the worst teams in the league. On paper, you're thinking, "What the hell? The Ravens are +2 after their impressive win on Monday Night Football versus a team who barely beat the Browns?"

Several reasons to reconsider your Ravens pick

1. Isolated Game Perception. The Ravens played under the lights of Monday Night Football, which definitely helps shape people's perspective than your average Sunday early game. This goes for any isolated game, which is the only game in town - thus, the average person is likely to consume that game than any particular game on Sunday before the NBC game. What you saw was the Ravens look great, and likely, all you saw of the Eagles game (unless you watched it on DirecTV) was the final score and the stats, which clearly disappointed you since you own a couple Eagles in fantasy football.
2. Letdown Game. Similar theory to 1, except this includes the fact that last week, besides being Week 1 on MNF, was that it is a division game. I expect there to be a letdown playing an out-of-division foe  (like the Ravens experienced in Week 2 last year after destroying the Steelers in Week 1).
3. The Eagles are good. The Eagles aren't favorites for no reason. The Eagles were still in division contention last year despite their pitiful 4-8 start. Entering this year, they were considered the second or third best team in the NFC based on chance to make it to the Super Bowl. They got great talent at all of the skill positions. Vick is probably over-rated (not an elite QB), but he's still better than most QBs overall. They also have a pretty good defense. I attribute the offense's struggles in Week 1 more to the imbalance of the offense (2:1 pass/run ratio, despite having one of the most talented RBs in the league). I expect McCoy to get more carries this week, which should open up the pass game a little.
4. Short Week for Ravens. Granted, this is probably one of the weaker reasons for backing the Eagles, but it could come into play.

Fool's Gold Pick: Philly -2 over Baltimore

Fool's Gold YTD: 0-1

Elimination Pool Pick: I forgot to add this feature last week. Week 1, I squeaked out a Detroit Lions win over the Rams. Week 2, I'm going with the lay-up pick: New England

Elimination Pool Pick(s) to Avoid: I believe that Dallas & Houston will be challenged this week.

Other NFL Week 2 Picks

Jax +7 vs Houston - Gabbert has a new "I may actually not suck" aura about him now. MJD should be sharper. I have a great gut feel for this one. May even take Jax money line.

Seattle +3.5 vs Dallas - Everyone is hammering the Cowboys after their impressive win in the league opener in Week 1 (possible isolated game perception by the public). Seattle is an improved team this year, plus their stadium, known for the 12th man for their loud crowd noise, is a hard place to place.

StL +3.5 vs. Wash - Who got the most coverage this past week in the NFL? RGIII. Who currently has one of the highest percentage of bets placed for this week? Washington. St. Louis had Detroit, a playoff team, on the ropes in their road opener. The Rams are an improved team (QB is healthy, experienced coach, good 2012 draft). I expect the public to be way wrong on this one.

Considering...Denver +3 at Atlanta; New Orleans/Carolina Over; KC +3 at Buffalo

Week 1: (4-9, -5.215 units)

NFL YTD: (5-11, -6.315 units) - includes GB/Chi bets

(Check my Twitter for my latest picks) @BrianBolek

NCAA Week 3 picks

Ohio State -16.5 over Cal - Urban Meyer is a covering monster in his coaching career for nonconference games (35-8 record - 81%). Plus, this is a really early game for Cal (9am Pacific time). I expect OSU to roll by 3+ scores. Already bet this (1.07 to win 1 unit)

Northwestern -3.5 over BC - Both teams are closing their non-conference schedules out. Both are coming off of impressive wins. I like NU's wins better (at Syracuse, who looked good against top-ranked USC, vs Vandy, who looked good against highly ranked South Carolina) compared to BC's only win last week. I'm gonna wait on this game and see if it goes down to -3 (always want to get the best line if possible). If not, I'll likely take it at -3.5 or 4.
UL-Monroe +16.5 over Auburn - Some people might be afraid that UL-Monroe was a fluke and could have a letdown here, but if you look at the stat sheet, they just flat out beat Arkansas everywhere (yards 550-377, first downs 30-21, almost a 2/1 possession ratio). I haven't seen Auburn play this year, but everything I've read/heard about Auburn is that they're just not that good this year. Auburn will likely win, but I think it will be a struggle.

Might add a few more NCAA games - haven't looked too closely at the schedule yet. I'll be at a family function tomorrow, so I may not bet too many games tomorrow outside of those.

Week 2: (3-1, +2.93 units)

NCAA YTD: (11-5, +6.035 units)

Football combined: (16-16, -0.28 units)

Enjoy the football weekend everyone.

#BoleksBestBets - NFL Week 1/NCAA Week 2

Now that I just got done lecturing people with my latest blog on do's and don'ts of gambling, it's time to write one of my favorite blogs of the year - the first of many gambling features on NFL & NCAA. I'll try updating this as accurately as possible. I forgot to post a lot of my NCAA plays on Saturday, which of course pretty much all ended up winners.

NCAA gambling in week 1 started out terribly, as I lost my first 4 bets placed, including taking one on the chin when I backed Navy +14.5 against Notre Dame in their game played in Ireland. After that though, it was smooth sailing, as I closed out the rest of the gambling weekend with 8 straight wins.

Lost: South Carolina -6.5, South Carolina/Vandy Over 21.5 2nd half, Minnesota -9, Navy +14.5
Won: Ohio +6.5, NIU +7.5, Hawaii +42.5, Alabama -13, Oregon team total over 54.5 points, Oregon 2nd half team under 21.5, SMU/Baylor Over 57, Georgia Tech +7.5

Overall, I ended up 8-4, +310.50. I'll try keeping this up to date (win or lose). Hopefully most weekends, I'll be able to keep this updated. For most updated picks, best to check my Twitter: @BrianBolek

Largest Spread Ever

On 5dimes, you can bet on Savannah State vs. Florida State. Question is: do you feel comfortable betting on Florida State spotting its opponent 65.5 points? That's what the line is. At some places, the line is over 70. If for some reason you think this game will be decided by 66-70 points, then maybe you want to bet both sides of the game. If you're a sane gambler, you'll probably just avoid it.

NCAA Week 2

Purdue +14 at Notre Dame - Expecting a Notre Dame letdown after a successful overseas trip. Also, Purdue has a chance to be a sleeper team in the Big Ten. Ask @BerserkHippo.
Penn St. +10 at Virginia-  Penn St. looked bad in the second half against Ohio, but I think Ohio is better than people expected. This line in the preseason was at about Virginia -3, so to say that PSU got 7 points worse based on the players they lost and their Week 1 performance seems a bit much. From what I've read about Virginia, there's nothing special about them. I still think PSU will be about a 5-6 win team, and here, I think they keep it closer than the line says.
Oregon State +7 vs. Wisconsin - Playing the angle of  non-conference game, travel cross country for Wisconsin. Big Ten teams tend to struggle in these situations.
Duke +15.5 at Stanford - This is more of a gut play. Plus, what Stanford showed in its opener is that it will struggle without Andrew Luck and company, while Duke, not exactly a powerhouse in its own right, but has bowl aspirations this season and opened the season on a strong note. They are led by potential pro prospect Sean Renfree, who is the ACC's active career leader in yards and completions. I think Duke keep it within two scores.

NFL Week 1

Dallas +3.5 & Dal/NYG Over 23.5 first half - Games already bet, but I split these bets (1-1, +48.50)

KC +3 vs Atlanta - KC is highly under-rated and has a great home field at Arrowhead. Injuries devastated them last year. If I am right, they will win the AFC West this year. This will be the first step.

GB -5 vs San Fran - Check out my 49ers Fan Federation Blog for detailed analysis on this. I think Packers start season off strong, motivated by sour taste in mouth based on last year's ending.

NO -7.5 vs. Washington - Lots of hype behind RG III, but I think it'll take some time for him to get acclimated to the NFL landscape. Plus, the Superdome is a rough place for a debut. Saints roll.

Indy +10 at Chicago - Andrew Luck appears to be the real deal, and he is a great candidate to beat Cam Newton's one-year old record of rookie passing yards in a season. The Bears had a poor secondary last year. While I think the Bears will win, I think it'll be by one score, not two. Don't be shocked if there's a backdoor cover (i.e. a late score by the Colts that helps them cover the spread).


NFL betting YTD (including Fool's Gold): 1-1, +48.50 (follow me on Twitter @BrianBolek for official bets, which may include additional bets than the ones mentioned here)

Fool's Gold Pick of the Week

Tennessee +5.5 vs. New England - Nothing seems right about this line. Tom Brady - the Tom Brady - isn't even spotting more than a touchdown to second-year starter Jake Locker? What gives? Like the Bears, the Patriots had a poor secondary, which allowed teams with decent attacks to stay in games. I think Nate Washington, Jared Cook and Kendall Wright are a sufficient trio and between them will get a couple of Jake Locker touchdowns in the opener. Brady should put up points, but I believe the Titans will too. Look for this to stay within a field goal, with a possibility of a Titans upset in Week 1. I think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, so you should probably bet the Under.

Fool's Gold YTD: 0-0, $0

Enjoy the start of the NFL season.

B List - Gambling Dos & Donts (List 15)

It's been a few weeks without a B List. My apologies to those who were looking forward to that as a weekly feature. It should be back on, but it may be more sports related as I am amped up about football season being back.

As I prepare for the 9,000 fantasy leagues I've entered, I am also getting ready to start my favorite gambling season of all - NFL & NCAA gambling.

I know many friends of mine who are casual gamblers, some of them are more of the daily type of gamblers - you all know who you are, damn degenerates. In this B List, I'll focus on some of my personal do's and don'ts when it comes to gambling. I've gotten better at following most/all of these, but there are times where the degenerate in me comes out and I piss away my money.

Enjoy.

7. Do some research. It sounds simple, but it's an important part of gambling. It can be something as simple as reading a couple of pre-game stories or studying the injury report or as complicated as studying gambling trends of the teams in the game. I haven't found a specific routine when I study before a bet. With baseball, I like to use stats I find on baseball-reference.com. Also, SportsInsights.com offers free betting information that shows you what sites offer what lines and how heavily each team/side is being bet.

Occasionally, I will go with a gut pick, and obviously Week 1 picks are based on hunches, as we haven't seen the current ensemble of players play together in a meaningful game. As you've seen more games from a team, you should have a better idea on how a team will play together.

6.  Don't bet if you are the type to get mentally/physically ill from losing money. Whether you bet just $5 or $100, if you can't handle losing, then I suggest not betting. Gambling is not for the faint of heart. When you do this as long as I have, you'll encounter some messed up losses and unreal wins. Anyone can handle the wins, but not everyone can handle the losses. If you're one of those folks, never gamble.

5. Don't bet with your heart. Too many people I know bet on their favorite teams, many of them blindly. Long term, this isn't a good approach. Your judgement on whether your team will win or not will usually err on the side of "win". If you're a real fan of the team, watching the game without betting on it should be good enough without adding the extra stress of wagering money on them to cover the 10 point spread.

4. Do expect to win if you gamble. Don't look at it as gambling - look at it as sports investing. Entering the gambling world with a little bit of confidence is good, but just don't expect to win every single bet. At the same time, don't bet if you've got the mindset, "I'm likely to piss this money away."

3. Do set limits for yourself. If you make 200-300 bucks a week, you probably shouldn't be gambling as much as someone who makes closer to a grand. I've heard different theories on how much of your bankroll you should risk on every game, but don't make a habit of risking anything close to what you make in a week. You're just asking for broken legs from bookies and/or really crappy

2. Do not chase losses. If your early bet lost, don't feel compelled to bet on a later game that you had no intention of betting just to try cancelling out the loss from earlier. This usually results in losing double the amount of money for the day, as you'll usually just end up making a bet for the sake of betting.


1. Do take a closer look at gambling lines that seem like "Locks". In case you hadn't noticed, Vegas and other places who rely on gambling revenue for survival don't just hand money out. If you see a line that makes you think they're handing you free money, maybe you should take a closer look at it. You're likely missing some key factors in why the line is lower than what you think it should be. Some folks frown upon this, but I often end up betting against what the general public bets. My weekly gambling column features "Fool's Gold", which highlights a line that seems too good to be true and usually has a high volume of public bettors betting on it.

Brief College Football Preview + Week 1 Predictions

I've waited until the last possible minute to provide a college football preview, mainly because my knowledge of the sport is lacking and I didn't think I'd be able to provide an in-depth preview anyways. I don't really keep up with the signings, but rather rely on industry experts (including some of my Twitter followers) and a few friends who partake in plenty of Saturday football sessions.

Check out Berserk Hippo Podcast - 2012 College Preview

Instead of providing a full-blown preview with analysis, I'll link you to my friend's podcast should you have the desire to learn a little bit more about the thoughts of knowledgeable college football fanatics. Nick Pazoles (@BerserkHippo) and Chris Williams (@cmwilliams51) run through each of the major conferences, with a special focus on the Big Ten, and make their picks to win each conference. They also provide a few surprise teams to watch and their BCS title predictions: Berserk Hippo Podcast - College Football 2012 Preview


I suggest taking a listen of it for more in-depth talk. Here's their predictions (and mine, just for the hell of it) summarized:

	Hippo	Williams	Bolek
Big Ten Legends	Michigan	Michigan	Michigan St.
Big Ten Leaders	Wisconsin	Wisconsin	Ohio State*
BTC Winner	Wisconsin	Michigan	Wisconsin
SEC Champ	Georgia	Alabama	LSU
PAC-12	USC	USC	USC
Big 12	Oklahoma	Oklahoma	Texas
ACC	Clemson	Clemson	Florida St
Big East	Louisville	Louisville	Cincinnati
Darkhorse Title Winner	Virginia Tech	Clemson	Oregon
Title Loser	Georgia	Alabama	USC
Title Winner	USC	USC	LSU
			*cannot play in Big
			Ten Championship - I
			have Wisconsin as
			Division representative

I'd be careful about using my division picks for betting purposes. I like LSU to make it to the title game again and this time win it - lots of talent on both sides of the ball. They may have one-loss entering the game, but I feel that their win in the SEC title game will be enough to boost them to title game status. Ohio State was under-coached last year - Urban Meyer brings out the best in college recruits, and OSU has plenty of talented ones. Texas has plenty of starters coming back from a team that bounced back from a mediocre 2010 bowl-less season to an 8-5 record - I think they'll outlast Oklahoma for the crown. Florida St. could have the best defense in the nation, although they seem to be a team (like Georgia) that lately seems to lose at the worst possible times. I just basically threw a dart in my head and came up with Cincinnati -the Big East will once again be unwatchable, especially now with West Virginia leaving the conference.

We all have USC in the championship game. Everything I've heard about them makes me think they are a lock to make it to the title game. Only game I could see them tripping up on is against Oregon at home or in the Pac-12 championship game. Also, I'd be weary of their last road game against UCLA the week before their home tilt against Notre Dame. Not saying UCLA is talented, but sometimes talented teams fall asleep on the road a week before a rivalry match-up.

As far as my picks for Week 1 go, I'm going with South Carolina -6.5, Alabama -14 (hoping to get a lower number), Navy +15 & Ohio +6.5 (hoping it goes to 7). Picks are subject to change and may include additional bets. I will do my best to edit this as the bets are placed - best bet is to check my Twitter (@BrianBolek or #BolekPicks).

Hope everyone is looking forward to football as much as I am.

Bow(e)ls (College/Pro), Bulls & Look into NFL Week 17

There are 35 bowl games in college football - meaning 70 teams get a postseason game. I don't need to tell you this is excessive, but I will anyways. Out of these 70 teams, 13 of them don't even have a winning record (12 are 6-6, UCLA is the first 6-7 team to make a bowl based on their appeal to the NCAA). Why should a team be rewarded for being average? If you count the 7-5 teams invited to bowls, that's an additional 15 teams. That means 28 of the 70 teams playing in bowls (40%) are break-even or barely above it.

If you remove these teams and have 8 wins minimum be a requirement, that'd leave us with 42 teams (21 games), which would probably be a more reasonable format.

NCAA can say all they want that these players and teams should be rewarded for a great season. It's clear it's not really about the teams and players being rewarded, but strictly about money. As long as there's 35 willing sponsors to back these bowls, they will keep this system in place.

Enjoy the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl tomorrow, featuring 6-6 Illinois vs 6-7 UCLA! I'm going to fight not stabbing myself watching teams with a combined 12-13 record - and neither featuring the coach that started the year.

Happy Bow(e)l Movement everyone!

The Pro Bowl teams were announced, and like always, there's deserving people that didn't get voted in. I laugh at everyone that gets worked up for a game they don't watch. Should Eli be in over Romo, Stafford or Newton? Probably not. Everyone knows though that all the top players end up bailing from the game anyways - some of them because of their teams making the Super Bowl. At the end of the day, I don't care who makes the Pro Bowl. Sure, I like knowing that the Niners have a lot of guys recognized as the best at their positions in the NFC, but it's not going to make me want to watch it.

As much as I want to root hardcore for the Bulls, going out to bars and hearing all of the idiots that watch them, blaming every loss/foul on the refs, it gets annoying to the point where I can't watch them in public anymore. It's not to that point yet this year, but I'm reminded of it last year during the playoff run. Every loss - referee's fault. Every foul - ref's fault. I know that this is how it goes for fans of every team. But since I'm in the Chicago market, I feel the need to mention them. There's probably people who this doesn't apply to and can watch basketball objectively - so to those people, feel free to ignore this rant (a little late to say, I know).

Perhaps some of it has to do with the announcers as well. Every Bulls fan loves Stacey King, but you'll hardly ever hear him not complain about a call against the Bulls. And when a questionable call goes in their favor, he'll say it was a good call and that the Bulls deserve it.

I understand that most analysts are homers, but his homerism is too excessive for my taste. He has good phrases that sell t-shirts, but like most announcers out there (local and national), I couldn't care less about him. This goes doubly for Hawk Harrelson.

Hmmmm, Reinsdorf connection - coincidence?

Week 17 means the end of the regular season for the NFL...but in reality, the season is juuuuuust beginning. There's still 3 spots to be decided - with Denver (AFC West), Cincy (AFC Wild Card) & the winner of Dallas/NYG (NFC East) who control their fates. Other teams need a combination of a win and other team(s) to lose in order to make it.

I have Denver losing this week and Oakland winning - giving the AFC West to Oakland. Cincy plays Baltimore at home - I say Cincy gets up for that game and pulls out the W. The other spot - I see NYG winning this one by a couple scores - I think Romo's injury will play a factor. Even if it isn't a factor and they lose, Tony Romo will be blamed for it.

An aside - Romo and Lebron could cure cancer and people would critique the technique in which they found the cure. The only reason I'd ever like to see Romo win a Super Bowl is to hear the excuses all his haters would come up with - "it was a team effort, it had nothing to do with him". If they lose a game by 3 and the dude throws for 400 yards and 3 TDs, no interceptions, somehow it'll have to do with Romo choking.

God, I hate ignorant sports fans. Look at what ESPN has created. Heap praise and God-like status on a mediocre QB who can't complete half his passes and is asked to manage a game (Tebow) and detest a guy who is often asked to throw 40-50 times a game (with a 60+% completion rate), 3/1 TD/Interception ratio.

Week 17 Picks - I'll update my record in the next blog - it's not as good as last year.

KC +3.5 (Denver never wins big - only 1 Tebow win was by more than 3), NYG -3 (see above), Chi +1 (Bears will give good effort - Minn is hurting all over), Car +7.5 (If Niners are winning in StL as expected, I see Payton to pull all the starters by the second half - watch Cam shine!)


In case I don't write tomorrow, Happy New Year to all! Hope 2012 treats all of you well.