Showing posts with label cleveland indians. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cleveland indians. Show all posts

10/04/2013

The Week That Is (and Was) in Sports - (Sept 29 - Oct 5 Edition)

Random sports thoughts from the week that was and the weekend trickling in front of us:

1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.



There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.

A few things about this:

(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.

(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.

2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.

While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?

3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.

Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.

Beware the delicious fruit.

5/20/2013

At the Quarter Pole - MLB So Far

While the All-Star game is when most baseball analysts start breaking down the baseball season so far and what is to come, but I like to break baseball up into quarters. Much like high school, except this class has way more fun numbers to play with. And gambling.

Quarters tend to give a decent (although not entirely accurate) model into how we should expect the season to play out. Here were the standings last year after May 20th. Bolded w/o italics indicates the eventual division champ; bolded w/ italics indicates Wild Card entry:

2012 MLB Standings after May 20th

Balt - 27-15
TB - 25-17
Tor - 23-19
NYY - 21-20
Bost - 20-21

Cle 23-18
CWS - 21-21
Det - 20-21
KC - 16-24
Min - 14-27

Tex - 26-16
Oak - 21-21
Sea - 19-24
LAA - 18-24

Atl - 26-16
Wash - 24-17
NYM - 22-19
Mia - 22-19
Phil - 21-21

Stl - 22-19
Cin - 21-19
Pit - 19-22
Hou - 18-23
Mil - 17-24
Cubs - 15-26

LA - 28-13
SF - 21-20
Ari - 19-23
SD - 16-26
Col - 15-25

The most fascinating stuff about these standings? Two things:


  1. None of the teams that eventually won the division were leading at this point of the year, although 4 of the 6 that were leading did end up with all of the 4 wild card entries into the playoffs. Three of the eventual division champs overcame a 5+ game deficit with the division leader at this juncture.
  2. Four of the six current division leaders were also the leaders at this point last year. Arizona and Boston are the only differences.


So for those of you penciling in all the division winners to hold on, remember that the season in long and that none of the division winners last year at this point held on to win the division. I'm willing to bet that at least one of the current division leaders is destined to be at the top when the season ends.

Current division leaders: NYY (0.5 games up); Cleveland (2 games up); Texas (6.5 games up); Atlanta (2.5 games up); St. Louis (2.5 games up); Arizona (1 game up). My guess? Texas & Atlanta hold up.

As was stated in my predictions blog, I made several bets for the 2013 season. Here's the predictions blog for reference  and also my official bets for 2013 before the season began (note: I added  $15 more to my Indians division bet at +1450 a few weeks ago). Let's have some fun with these:
  • Raise your hand if you bet on Houston to win over 59.5 games *raises hand in disgust, in process of flushing a Benjamin in the toilet*. Currently, Houston is 12-32. In order to reach 60 wins, they need to go 48-70 down the stretch. I don't feel good about the start, but I have to remember that only requires a 40.6% win percentage down the stretch. I put my chances of winning this bet at around 30%.
  • I laid heavy juice on Tampa Bay (Over 86) & Cleveland (Over 77.5) and also threw a little cash on each to win their divisions. So far, Tampa is right around the pace required (23-20 record ~ 86.65 wins with the current percentage), while Cleveland is two clear of the rest of the AL Central, sitting pretty at 25-17. Tampa needs to go 64-55 to win my bet, while Cleveland can go 53-67 and still win me my wins bet. I believe Tampa's best ball is coming - their ERA (4.42) will only get better. Even with a slight regression in hitting, I think Tampa still has a good/great chance of winning this division. Obviously I feel better about Cleveland's chances to cash the win bet at the moment, but the Indians have blown good starts the past few years, so I'm not holding my breath. Still though, a nice start. I put my chances of winning the Tampa wins bet at around 54%; division bet at 30%. Meanwhile, I put my chances of winning Cleveland wins bet at around 70%; division bet at 35%. Detroit should still win the division, but Cleveland's bats could carry them to division crown.
  • San Diego was my other over bet (74.5 wins). A slow start had me doubting this bet, but a resurgence in the offense has increase my confidence in this ten-fold (14-8 in their last 22 games). They may only be 20-23, but I do think San Diego has a great shot to be a sleeper team to make the Wild Card. In order to reach the wins total, the Padres need to go 55-64 down the stretch. I believe they will crack 80 wins and contend for a Wild Card, so my confidence in this bet is at 70%
  • My only under bet was the Blue Jays going under 89 wins. A 17-26 starts means that Toronto would need to go 73-46 (61%) while playing in baseball's best division. Needless to say, I put my chances of winning this bet at 85% (since anything can happen, but I feel really good about this).
  • Other division bet I made was on the Phillies, who sport a 21-23 record and sit 4.5 games back of the Braves. I don't give the Phils much better than a 15-20% chance to win this.
  • Player props - Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes most HRs in MLB. It took Bruce forever to hit a home run (now he has 5), while Cespedes just nailed his 8th. They both trail Justin Upton (14) by a significant amount. However, a little streak for either of these guys can put them right in it. My chance of winning either of these bets is about 2-3%.


10/06/2012

Sox To Be You: How the South Siders Have Fared Recently in Last Month of MLB Season

At this moment, I should be getting ready to go to a White Sox playoff game. At least that's what my hope was when I bought tickets to Game 1 of the ALDS a couple weeks ago.

However, as the White Sox have done many times over in the past decade, they faded into the sunset as Detroit's pitching hit their stride which helped them overtake Chicago without looking back.

It'll be tough to watch the Tigers when I thought a couple weeks ago it was going to be the White Sox, but I'll get over it. The expectations weren't too high for the year, but as the team starts to prove your expectations wrong, you start to slightly adjust your thoughts. Other White Sox fans - you can't tell me that your expectations didn't change when you saw them enter the All-Star break with the lead. Even though we weren't expected to win the division, I am very disappointed because down the stretch, I did expect to win it.

Here's an example of how the White Sox have done since 2000 before September and in September:

Entering Sept
Record Place Games Back or Ahead
2001 68-65 3rd Down 7.5 games to Cleveland
2002 65-70 2nd Down 14 games to Minnesota
2003 73-64 1st Up 1.5 games to Minnesota
2004 64-66 3rd Down 8.5 games to Minnesota
2005 80-51 1st Up 7 games to Cleveland
2006 78-56 2nd Down 4.5 games to Det
2007 57-78 5th Down 20.5 games to Cleveland
2008 77-59 T-1st Up 1/2 game to Minnesota
2009 64-68 3rd Down 6 games to Det
2010 72-60 2nd Down 4 games to Minnesota
2011 68-66 3rd Down 6 games to Det
2012 72-59 1st Up 2 games to Det

And here's how things ended in Sept/Oct


Champ
Sep/Oct Final Record Final Finish Final Games Back/Ahead or 2nd
2001 (15-14) 83-79 3rd place Down 8 games Cleveland
2002 (16-11) 81-81 2nd place Down 13.5 games Minnesota
2003 (13-12) 86-76 2nd place Down 4 games Minnesota
2004 (19-13) 83-79 2nd place Down 9 games Minnesota
2005 (19-12) 99-63 1st place Up by 6 games Cleveland
2006 (12-16) 90-72 3rd place Down 6 games Minnesota
2007 (15-12) 72-90 4th place Down 24 games Cleveland
2008 (12-15) 89-74 1st place won division (1 gm playoff) Minnesota
2009 (15-15) 79-83 3rd place Down 7 games Detroit/Minn
2010 (16-14) 88-74 2nd place Down 6 games Minnesota
2011 (11-14) 79-83 3rd place Down 16 games Detroit
2012 (12-18) 85-77 2nd place Down 3 games Detroit


In this twelve year span, the team in first place entering September has won eight out of the 12 division titles. The White Sox (2003, 2012) and Detroit (2006, 2009 - lost tiebreaker to Minn) were the teams who blew their division leads in the last month.

If you notice, the only year the White Sox gained ground on the competition closest to them was in 2002, when they gained that magical half game to finish 13.5 back of the Twins. You can say 2006 was gaining, but the Sox needed a one-game playoff to win the division.

Otherwise, in the past 12 years, we haven't seen a year where the White Sox had a better record than the team they are chasing or who is chasing them. Since the World Series win in 2005, they've barely broken .500 a couple times but otherwise have dragged to the finish line.

Sure, the Cubs are known as Completely Useless By September to the folks who like to stir up the White Sox/Cubs "rivalry", but when it comes to September, the White Sox have been pretty much completely useless.

You can tell me that this year was better than expected, and the March/April version of me would agree with you. But the September/October version of me feels like they let the fans down, And with how they've had problems closing out seasons as of late, you can't blame me for being disappointed.