A dreary February night in Miami six years ago ended with the Indianapolis Colts downing the Chicago Bears 29-17 to claim their franchise's first Lombardi Trophy since moving to Indianapolis.
More than that, it was a night that has saved Peyton Manning from incredible amounts of scorn from media and fans alike. For if Peyton's Colts failed to win that game and his career continues on the same trajectory (a Super Bowl loss to New Orleans and another playoff bye week failure with Denver last year), he may be facing the same heat that the likes of Tony Romo and Jay Cutler do anytime they throw a game-changing interception (Romo) or look like they're faking injury, pouting, and don't care about the result of their team's biggest game of the season (Cutler), and all of the critiques that any quarterback without a ring face on a consistent basis.
The past few days of watching NFL Network and other sports programs has shown the echo chamber that exists with Tony Romo, whose 500 yards and 5 TDs might as well have been 0 yards and 0 touchdowns when his interception late in the fourth quarter set up the Denver Broncos for what would be the game-winning field goal in a 51-48 shoot-out. The narrative of Romo as a choker continues, much to the delight of the public and media, as it is an easy story to write and an easy, lazy sound bite for any NFL analyst to claim. The Dallas defense allowed 517 yards (albeit against the NFL's most prolific offense), and maybe the fact that Denver's offense is so strong is one reason why the way Dallas got torn up (as other Denver opponents have) has absolved them from blame. But not to give them any blame, but instead put it all, 100 percent, on the back of a guy making one mistake...why divert from the narrative now?
So back to the opening paragraph...if the results of the Super Bowl XLI weren't so kind to Peyton Manning, who will likely own every significant passing record when he retires (assuming he plays a few more years), how would everyone view him? Would we continue to make the same excuses I've heard from other people when defending Peyton (i.e. that it's harder to win a title as one great player in NFL than it is in the NBA, despite the fact that certain players are treated as the sole reason a team loses despite the game featuring 43 other starting players playing in 130+ total plays)?
On one hand, you can't tell me that Peyton (a 9-11 postseason record) should be excused for only winning one title because football is a game with 21 other starters that affect the outcome of winning and losing, and then in the same breath tell me that Tony Romo (or any other quarterback that the public/media like to rip constantly) is completely to blame for any close loss that his team incurs.
When Peyton lost his last Super Bowl appearance (a 31-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints), he was fortunate to escape blame for the pick-6 he threw in the final minutes of the game when the Colts were in position to potentially tie the game. Part of it was due to the fact that Manning has a ring, but the overall narrative leading up to the game (the Saints' success following the post-Katrina devastation) was probably the leading cause for Manning blame to escape the media critiquing rounds.
If the Broncos fail to win the Super Bowl this season, does Peyton still get a pass from everyone? He might, and it has to do with the ring in 2007. Imagine a 15-year career like Peyton's with no rings - what would we say then?
Showing posts with label peyton manning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label peyton manning. Show all posts
10/04/2013
The Week That Is (and Was) in Sports - (Sept 29 - Oct 5 Edition)
Random sports thoughts from the week that was and the weekend trickling in front of us:
1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.
There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.
A few things about this:
(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.
(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.
2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.
While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?
3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.
Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Beware the delicious fruit.
1. Pittsburgh's "feel-good" story angle took a hit with me after their Wild Card win against the Reds to send them into the NLDS. While many American sports fans and media who aren't from Cincinnati were rooting on the Pirates to continue their magic carpet ride of a season for at least three more games, an incident at the stadium involving the wife of Reds pitcher Mat Latos being physically harassed by fans was largely ignored - to the point where you wonder if people are afraid of spoiling the narrative that the Pirates have created to this point.
A huge man called me a cunt & said he was going to kick my ass so I told security. His chick is who threatened me & then attacked me.
— Dallas Latos (@DallasLatos) October 2, 2013
There's several more tweets from her posted between October 1st and 2nd that you can search yourself. Most of the other tweets seem to be her defending herself from a bunch of classless people who assume she was "asking for it" or "looking for attention" by Tweeting about it so much.
A few things about this:
(a) There will be morons in any fan base, Pittsburgh or otherwise, that are a very small portion of the fans representing the team. One of the problems is that usually this small portion of fans is also the loudest (the drunken idiot yelling nonsensical obscenities at the ball game). Mrs. Latos stated in a tweet that she got an apology on behalf of a Pirates fan who was seemingly unrelated to the incident, so it's good that there was someone actually at the event that was supportive of her - potentially preventing mob mentality from setting in.
(b) The people who say she is looking for attention through Twitter crack me up. The beautiful thing is that none of them realize the irony of their statement - anyone that uses social media of any kind is looking for some level of attention. I didn't track any tweets from the people who critiqued Dallas for her "attention-seeking", but if their tweets are anything like mine, there's a lot of self-serving material on their feeds (my guess is they're not as funny or nice as me though). I saw a Pittsburgh shock jock (Mark Madden) getting into a war of words with her - oh so many beautiful ironies and stories to tell from this simple incident. Color me shocked.
2. What should have been a great week for Cleveland sports has a sour taste to it come Friday. This week in Cleveland sports started with the Browns downing the Bengals in relatively easy fashion, culminating with the Indians ending their regular season on a ten-game winning streak, closing out the Twins and advancing to host a one-game Wild Card playoff between the winner of the Rays/Rangers game the next day. Their World Series hopes were dashed a few days later when the Rays shut them down. On Thursday, the Browns took down the Buffalo Bills and moved their T-Rich-less winning streak to three games and have sole possession of the AFC North till at least Sunday afternoon. However, the quarterback that kick-started the winning streak and local product (Brian Hoyer) suffered an ACL injury that ended his season and put the signal caller reigns back into the shaky hands of Brandon Weeden - who actually didn't do so bad given the ugly-looking sequence of series that he had when entering the Thursday Night game.
While Cleveland as a whole should feel better about their prospects in all sports going forward (even in basketball, provided Kyrie Irving doesn't bail and they can continue building a decent core), "just getting there" or "getting better" will not be enough to heal the decades of wounds Cleveland sports fans have endured. The question is - what Cleveland team will be the next one to win a league title?
3. Speaking of titles, many people seem so quick to anoint the Super Bowl crown to the Denver Broncos. Yes, the Broncos have looked like a well-oiled machine in destroying their first four opponents so far, to the point where they are laying a touchdown or more (depending on what sports book you may use) as a road team heading into Dallas to face a consistently inconsistent Cowboys squad. But remember, the one many dub as the best quarterback to ever play the game, Peyton Manning, hasn't had the best track record in the playoffs (9-11), particularly when having a bye week entering the playoffs (2-4). If you want to argue that quarterback win/loss records are overblown, I won't completely disagree - many factors that a QB can't control go into a team's prospects of winning or losing. However, if you're going to give credit to him for how brilliant Peyton is while citing his regular season successes, you cannot deny the disappointment his teams have had in the postseason.
Also, let's not ignore the obvious angle that has occurred in the NFL playoffs - the emergence of a team playing in the Wild Card round that goes on a run and wins the Lombardi. Seven of the last eight Super Bowl match-ups have featured a team whose playoff run began in the Wild Card round versus a team who had a bye to start the playoffs, with the Wild Card team winning the Super Bowl six of those times (including Peyton's lone Super Bowl victory in 2007). And remember, this list of Super Bowl losers includes the seemingly invincible New England Patriots, whose lone loss in 2007-08 was in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.
Beware the delicious fruit.
9/06/2013
These Things, I Know: NFL Thoughts Entering Week 1
Here are some random thoughts about the NFL that I know to be true heading into the 2013 season:
Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year
Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.
Week 1 Picks I like:
Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG
Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt
- People have already made up their minds on Jay Cutler. No level of success this year outside of a Super Bowl victory will be good enough for the people that already hate him (and even then, there will be a good share of detractors), mainly for non-football reasons - i.e. his personality and demeanor turn people off. My favorite thing about sports is how everyone becomes a certified psychologist and body language expert, as if something that a television presents to you without context (a guy sitting on the bench) is a good way to read a person's true thoughts or feelings.
Watch the reaction of Cutler after throwing an interception or getting off the field after a bad drive, and it's no different than when a top quarterback reams out his offensive line for missing a block or a receiver running the wrong pattern. But since it's a guy that hasn't succeeded in the league, the general reaction to Cutler's reaction is one of disgust. People call him petulant, a whiner, mopey, basically any adjective in the family of "immature guy who looks like he doesn't care".
I really hope he succeeds this year and shoves it in the face of the fans who hate him and clearly yearn for the days of Johnathan Quinn or Henry Burris behind center. - All of the above, change a few adjectives and names around, applies to Tony Romo.
- You can't say anything bad about Peyton Manning, not even his arm strength. Plus he makes funny commercials, furthering his positive image. Just makes me wonder how he would be perceived had he not had the pleasure of winning his only Super Bowl against the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears. Winning just one Super Bowl changes public perception on you forever.
- Some people should not be playing in fantasy football leagues.
Just caught something on NFL Network about a Monte Ball tweet posted after his teammate Peyton Manning shredded the Ravens in a 49-24 rout of the defending champs.
Ppl out there hot about their fantasy leagues 😂😂 😂😂! It's a process!
— Montee Ball (@MonteeBall) September 6, 2013
Here are some tweets I pulled up from people addressing Monte directly:
“@MonteeBall: Ppl out there hot about their fantasy leagues 😂😂 😂😂 It's a process!” fuck a process u better be in the end zone next week bruh
— Juan Juan (@2_Jaaaayz) September 6, 2013
Thanks @EricDecker87 and @MonteeBall for all your fantasy points!! #not your team had 49 points and neither of you can get ANYThese are just some of the tweets to see when looking up his Twitter handle. Some had your standard Internet tough-guy racist tweets, which I'd rather not promote here.
— Matt Kley (@MattKley27) September 6, 2013
The fact that there's people going out of their way to bother Ball about his fantasy football performance makes me question why a player would even bother having a Twitter in the first place. I know fantasy is a great way for the NFL to promote its product in a way that makes the fan feel like they have control over something NFL-related, as if they are virtual general managers of a team. But why, as a player, would you bother dealing with the pests when you fail to live up to some statistical expectation that is demanded of you? I think I would have to use the Block function (a fitting name for an NFL RB) a lot if I decided to join Twitter as an NFL caliber player. Sorry to say, I am not such a player. But I crush a lot.
Anywho, onto the traditional picks for the year
Denver covered the -7 last night, so for NFL, I am 1-0, +1.1. More winning hopefully in the books.
Week 1 Picks I like:
Cle -1 vs. Mia
SF -4.5 vs. GB
Oak +10.5 at Indy
Dal -3 vs. NYG
Some I'm considering: NYJ +3.5 vs. TB; Ten +7 at Pitt
7/09/2013
The Ultimate QB (QuarterBolek) Rating System: The Four Tiers of NFL QBs
From the moment that NFL coverage starts getting rampant on both the NFL Network and ESPN, you won't be able to watch a show that doesn't have a topic point relating to who should be considered the top quarterbacks (or the buzz word as of late, "elite") of the NFL.
Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.
But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.
So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:
(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs
(4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs
So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.
Sometimes, there will be an oddball who is likely trying to create dialogue for dialogue's sake and mentions someone off the radar or someone who clearly is not a top-level quarterback. Otherwise, it's the same list, over and over. The term "best quarterback" gets overused to the point where it becomes meaningless. One moment, it's Tom Brady; the next, Peyton.
But why does it matter who is the best? The end goal is the same for all of these guys - the Lombardi Trophy. Ultimately, the best quarterbacks are the ones who will year-in, year-out always have a puncher's chance of winning a Super Bowl. History has shown that the quarterback position is where we can best judge a team's chances of winning it all. After all, most Super Bowl winners are usually Hall-of-Fame caliber. The one's usually discussed in the best conversation are indeed the ones who usually have the best chance, but a lot of times, a flavor of the week comes around to confuse some of these lists a little.
So instead of trying to constantly rank quarterbacks based on the last week's performance, we should consider there to be tiers of QBs, less flexible than the "pundit's" weekly up-and-down ranking:
- Those who have already won a Super Bowl
- Those who have the talents to win a Super Bowl but have yet to win
- Those who have slightly less talent, but could win it with the right cast of characters
- Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title
(1) Those who have already won a Super Bowl (listed in order by # of titles, then order of most recent title) - 7 QBs
- Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco
Notes: Well, this list is complete fact. No opinions on whether these guys won a Super Bowl title. For now, I think these are the first of QBs that should be used when discussing who the best is, and even some of these guys shouldn't be considered (Big Ben, Flacco - not yet anyways). Anyone else mentioned is a victim of the recency effect (i.e. one of the guys below might start out the season with a hot hand).
It should be noted that Peyton's only Super Bowl win was against Rex Grossman. I could only imagine the labels that would be attached to Peyton had he never won a title and thrown that pick-6 to seal the Saints' title years back. The more I look at Peyton's career, the more I see Favre - a guy with a lengthy Hall-of-Fame career who wins a title and could/should have won more but for various reasons, didn't.
- Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
Notes: You'll notice that for the most part, these are guys who have only been in the league for a few years (with Matt Ryan being the exception). You may dispute Cam Newton being on this list, but I believe he has the talents to win a Super Bowl - he just hasn't had a chance with the Panthers defense on the other side of the ball. I am calling a playoff berth for the Cam Panthers this year.
The draft class of 2012 showed itself to be the real deal. I believe all three (Luck, RG3, Wilson) will have a chance to compete in conference title game for the next decade. Who is the best of them - I have no clue yet. Who cares - let's just enjoy them without having to rank them.
- Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
Notes: The guys above have had wildly different paths in the NFL, a few of them young but most in the league for 6+ years, none of which has led to a Super Bowl appearance. This is the most intriguing group of QBs to me, because I do believe with the right situation, these guys can win a title. It's just that unlike the guys above, I don't think they can do it solely on the talents that they have shown.
Romo - as much as I want to back him, especially with all the crap people give him, he's failed to take the next step as QB. Every year, it seems like you can pencil Dallas in for a chance to win the NFC East, only to fall flat - and no, it's not all Romo's fault as many make it out to be. But it is some of his fault.
Cutler - I'm interested to see his talents used by Trestman, who has been known to be an offensive guru. For right now, he hasn't shown himself to be a guy who I think will win a title.
Stafford - he seems to be more of a stat stuffer than a QB who can win a title. Problem is, he's getting paid like a Super Bowl-type QB but definitely not worth the money at this point.
Bradford - this seems like it's going to be a make-or-break year for Bradford, who I could easily vault into the next category of QBs if he shows some of the talents he did while he was at Oklahoma. If he can somehow propel the Rams into the playoffs, I may consider elevating him.
Schaub - he's nearing his chance of winning a title in my opinion. I'm thinking a Wade Phillips defense will need to be the catalyst, with Schaub playing a secondary role in winning a title. I don't see Schaub improving so much that I can confidently say he will not win a title by carrying the load.
Smith - He had a breakout year in 2011 with the Niners and was just as effective to start 2012, but I believe Smith needs a system that suits his talents in order to succeed. KC will likely never win a Super Bowl with Smith carrying the team - they'd need a talented base around him to do it (a la Schaub).
Dalton - He's about as intriguing to me as Bradford, maybe a little more so. What Dalton and A.J. Green have going is special, and I am a believer in the Bengals defense. This is my surprise team this year (I have them making it to the Super Bowl), so I will be keeping an eye on Dalton the whole year to see if he can have the big games (a la Rodgers & Brees) that will carry the Bengals to victory on days where the defense might be a little down.
Tannehill - The jury is still out on him (as you could probably say on most of the 2012 draft class). I believe if he sticks with Miami long enough, he will have a shot to win some AFC East titles once Brady retires. He showed a lot more talent than many thought he would. I wouldn't be surprised if he never makes it to a AFC title game, but down the road, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
(4) Those who would need to become a back-up later in their careers to win a title - 11 QBs
- Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith, Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden, Philip Rivers, E.J. Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
Notes: Many of these guys have had their chances with their time in the league (notably Sanchez & Rivers, who have made 3 AFC title games between them - I don't see either one of them even coming close to these career achievements again, yet alone a Super Bowl as a starter). Vick, who made an NFC title game a long time ago (remember? seems so long ago) has seen his better days and is likely nearing his end as a starting QB in the next year or two. He's never shown himself to be reliable enough to win a title. Palmer has been like Stafford - a stat stuffer.
Some of these first/second-year QBs, the jury is still out, although I'm just going off a hunch at this point that guys like Weeden & Manuel will never lead a team to a Super Bowl. I don't see Ponder ever leading the Vikings to the promised land (Adrian Peterson was the MVP for a reason). The others, I don't care to mention.
So there's my QB tiers. I think the third tier has the most flexibility in argument - a case can be made for many of those guys to be Super Bowl QBs and many of those, conversely, who have no chance. You may be able to convince me to lessen that third-tier list considerably.
1/13/2013
2013 AFC/NFC Divisional Game Analysis and a Quick Look at Next Weekend
As I expected, this weekend of football (aside from the last game) was a solid display of NFL action. Shockingly, I got all 4 of the winners right.
Random thoughts from the weekend:
- Peyton Manning can't be completely blamed for the Broncos' double overtime loss to the Ravens (John Fox's ultra-conservative approach to the end of the game with 2 timeouts and 30+ seconds definitely didn't make sense), but with this being the eighth time one of his teams has lost in its first playoff game in 12 postseason appearances, he will probably take a good chunk of the blame. His interceptions sure didn't help, but there's no excuse for Baltimore being able to throw a bomb like that with less than a minute left to tie up the game. For Jacoby Jones to get behind the secondary that easily puzzles me. Don't get me wrong, Flacco made a hell of a throw. But with the kind of arm Flacco has, there has to be better deep coverage than that. Because of that throw, Denver goes home and Baltimore advances.
- Enough of the "Is Joe Flacco Elite?" crap on TV. Can't we just call him a damn good quarterback that has the ability to lead his team to playoff glory? His playoff record (7-4, including 5-4 on the road) shows what he is capable of, and if it wasn't for Lee Evans' drop last year, he'd be going after his second straight Super Bowl appearance. In the past, Flacco needed the defense to carry him to victory. Now, it's Joe Cool that's doing the heavy lifting, as evidenced by his 331 yards and 3 TDs (no interceptions). That puts his postseason numbers for this year at 613 yards, 5 TDs and no picks. Not bad. Elite? Who cares. There's no need to put a label on the guy or anyone for that matter. Leave that to the losers at ESPN that need to debate everything up to and including whether Jay Cutler is to blame for RG3's injury.
- Colin Kaepernick showed exactly why Jim Harbaugh stuck with the Nevada quarterback after he replaced Alex Smith due to a concussion in the middle of the season. After throwing a pick-6 on the Niners first possession, Kaepernick settled into the game quite nicely, totaling a mind-blowing 444 yards (including an NFL-record for QBs - 181 rushing yards) and four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing). As a Niners fan, I am delighted with the change in QB and that Harbaugh stuck with this decision despite how Alex Smith started the year. It took some balls, and Harbaugh has a big pair of them.
- One of the key points I thought would help the Niners win on Saturday was holding onto the ball for a significant time edge over the Packers, which they did. The Niners held the ball for almost a 2/1 advantage in time, helped greatly by the team's effectiveness on the ground (43 carries, 323 yards). If the Niners can maintain this offensive efficiency, a sixth Lombardi trophy is likely in their future.
- The Falcons made things way more interesting than they needed to be. After blowing a 20 point lead, Atlanta was led down the field by Matt Ryan, with Matt Bryant booting home a 49-yard kick with 13 seconds left. What was most baffling was the terrible coaching decisions made by Mike Smith in the second half. Some of the bad decisions that nearly cost the Falcons a chance of advancing: (a) not going for 2 when up 19 late in the third quarter. At this point in the game, there's no reason not to go for 2 to go up 21. And no, this isn't hindsight - it's math. Whether you're up by 19 or 21, the opposing team will be going after three touchdowns, especially that late in the game; (b) calling a timeout with 13 seconds left instead of letting the time slip to 3 seconds to make the field goal the final play of the game & (c) having Matt Bryant essentially kick an onside kick that gave Russell Wilson a chance at a Hail Mary attempt. I don't watch the Falcons enough to know if Mike Smith always coaches like this, but I have to believe that the Niners have a huge coaching advantage entering the NFC Championship game. Perhaps that's why the line went from 2 to 3.5 in no time.
- Despite the furious fourth quarter comeback, the Seahawks fell short, but that doesn't deter any from what Russell Wilson was able to accomplish this season. Despite being drafted in the third round by a team who just shelled out tens of millions on a QB in the offseason, Wilson was able to earn the starting role in the preseason. In the year of the rookie QB, Wilson led his team further than any of them. It's going to be fun watching him in the next decade as the Niners scheme to stop the speedster slinger.
- The Patriots took care of business, as expected. Tom Brady did his best Tom Brady impression (25-40, 344 yards, 3 TDs) in the victory. Outside of the opening kick of the game, which allowed the Texans to get a brief 3-0 lead, the Patriots controlled this game throughout. The score (41-28) was helped by a couple of fourth quarter Texans touchdowns, but it didn't feel that close. The Patriots' win sets the stage for a rematch of the AFC Championship last year. I believe it will be just as close as last year.
- After watching the Texans down the stretch and in their brief playoff appearance, I was left wondering: is this as good as the Texans will be? As my man Bomani Jones said, Matt Schaub is a good QB - not great, not terrible, but good - the epitome of good. I don't see Gary Kubiak ever out-coaching the likes of Belichick in situations like this. They may be stuck in the "good, but not great" category for an indefinite time, until they get either a new coach, a new QB, or both.
Championship Games
I've had a few hours now to soak in the championship games. Before I go into that, I'd like to bring up some stats I found relating to the history of these conference championship games:
- This is the first year since 1995 where there were three teams who made the championship game from the previous year. Baltimore, New England and San Francisco helped break that streak.
- There's never been an instance in the Super Bowl era where all 4 teams in AFC/NFC Championship games made it back-to-back years.
- Between 1970 and 1999 (the dynasty era of football), there were only three instances of no teams in either conference making the game in back-to-back years. Since 2000 (14 seasons), there have been seven times where the conference games from the previous year were filled with all new teams compared to the year before.
- San Francisco is the first NFC team to make it to consecutive championship games since the Eagles did it 2002-2005. They are also battling Atlanta next weekend as one of them will be looking to become the 11th different NFC team in the past 12 years to make the Super Bowl. That leaves the loser, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington & Dallas as the only NFC teams not to make the Super Bowl in that time.
- The last five NFC Championship games have been decided by 7 points or less, including three overtime games. I wouldn't be surprised if this year's game becomes the sixth one in a row.
Atlanta/San Francisco - These teams advanced to this round in opposite ways - San Fran with a slow start that was followed by a strong closing three quarters, with Atlanta struggling to the finish line in its narrow victory. A couple of questions on my mind as the game approaches:
- Will Kaepernick be able to build off of his first playoff game? It's hard to get much better than he showed.
- How much of a factor will the crowd be? Kaepernick did well in some hostile environments (New Orleans, New England) but not so well in the land of the 12th Man (Seattle). If Atlanta gets really loud, I'm wondering how Kaep will be able to handle the offense. An early lead is important.
- Is it just me, or does the Niners defense not seem the same as it did at the beginning of the year? There have been a few injuries on defense, notably Justin Smith with a partially torn triceps. I know the quality of opponent was high in the second half of the year (road games against Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson stick out in mind), but the high scores of these games was unusual to say the least. It's nice to know we can win high scoring games, because this NFC Championship game might be a barnburner.
With all of that being said, I see the Niners advancing to their sixth Super Bowl next week. Preliminary prediction is 34-27.
New England/Baltimore - I see this game playing out a lot like their AFC Championship tilt last year (and also their regular season match-up this year). It seems ridiculous that the Ravens are 9-point underdogs when earlier this year, they were 2.5 point favorites against the Patriots. I see this being a higher scoring game - Baltimore's defense is for once being carried by the offense. I see the Patriots squeezing out a 30-27 victory to advance to their second Super Bowl in a row (and sixth in the past 12 years).
9/21/2012
NFL News & #BolekBestBets - NFL Week 3/NCAA Week 4
Good afternoon NFL fans and betting buddies of mine.
I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.
Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:
I'm short on time, so I will probably not give a ton of analysis - probably good for you.
Couple random NFL stories I wanted to mention:
- Overreaction to Week 1 gives way to Overreaction to Week 2. If you live in the Chicago Bears market, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Week 1 - Bears destroy Colts and they're Super Bowl bound. Week 2 - they lose to the Packers (last I checked, the Packers are pretty damn good) and now the world is falling. This happened with a few teams (Packers, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, etc). Odds are, your team that rotated wins and losses in Week 1 with differing performances in the games is probably not as good as their win and not as bad as their loss shows. Calm down, take a breath, and enjoy the rest of the season.
- Too much fluff on these sports shows. The fact that I heard that Eli threw for over 500 yards, which has only happened a handful of times in history, about 1000 times less than the last play spat between the coaches is pathetic. Why is so much time spent on stuff that has little/nothing to do with the outcome? Are we so dumb as sports fans that they're catering to our supposed need for this? I'd like to think most people I know are better than this. I care about results, what happened to get to those results (i.e. stats). I don't need TMZ-style analysis entering ESPN and other sports shows.
- If you got a ring, it don't mean a thing. Tom Brady yells at his offensive line. Peyton Manning yells at his offensive line. Aaron Rodgers yells at his offensive line. Jay Cutler yells at his offensive line. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Jay Cutler.
Peyton Manning makes a big mistake in a playoff game and throws a pick-6 to the Saints to help New Orleans seal their Super Bowl win years back. Despite having the best record in the past 7 years, Tom Brady hasn't won a Super Bowl in that time. Tony Romo fumbles a field goal snap that costs his team a chance at winning a first round playoff game. Guess who is the only one who gets critiqued for it....the guy without the ring - Tony Romo
I'm not saying these guys (Romo and Cutler) shouldn't get blame for the mistakes that they make, but please have some perspective and realize that these other guys make mistakes too. If Peyton hadn't beaten the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears to win his lone Super Bowl, his mistake against the Saints would have been the main story of the Super Bowl, not the Saints winning their first Super Bowl.
The media and general public tend to forgive the mistakes of QBs who have won Super Bowls. Keep in mind, there's only a handful of current QBs who have won a Super Bowl: Rodgers, both Mannings, Brady, Big Ben, Brees (six total QBs). Any QB not on this list who is considered good/great will eventually hear it from media/public if they fail to make the next step.
NCAA Week 4
K State +15
Baylor -8.5
Baylor -8.5
Temple +7.5
USC -16.5
NFL Week 3
Fool's Gold Pick (0-2 so far) Oakland +4
San Fran -6.5 (falling for the trap)
NE +2 (or ML)
Cle +3
Ariz +3.5
Dal -7.5
I'm out of Survivor League for Don after picking New England like a sucker. If I was still alive today, I'd pick Dallas this week.
I don't have updated records - but for NFL, I know they're bad. I won my under bet last night, so I'm hoping I can get some betting momentum heading into the next couple weeks.
Good luck to everyone this week on bets and fantasy.
8/31/2012
Bolek Blog Series - Fans of Out of Market NFL Teams: Denver Broncos
As many of you have seen through my whored out Facebook statuses, I am profiling people who live in the Chicago area and are fans of out of town teams.
Thank you to everyone who has filled out a survey so far. If you're a fan of an out-of-town team and I haven't given you a questionnaire to fill out, please let me know ASAP, as I am looking to profile as many people as possible.
My fifth feature is on the Denver Broncos, the first of two AFC West fans that I found. Randy Whalen is a former work colleague who freelances for the Sun-Times Media Group covering high school sports. He has been a long-time Broncos fan, and I thank him for sharing his thoughts on the Broncos and how he became a fan of them.
Here's a list of other blogs in the out-of-town feature series:
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Tennessee Titans
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Minnesota Vikings
 |
| Randy has been a fan of the Broncos for 36 years. |
In 1977, the Broncos were the last team standing in the way of the Raiders advancing to their second consecutive Super Bowl.
"I remember listening to the game on the radio and hoping and maybe even praying that Oakland would lose," Randy said. "The Broncos held on for a 20-17 win and went to the Super Bowl. They captured my imagination because they had never been there before."
Not that he's counting (ok, maybe he is), but Randy has been to a total of 37 Broncos games, which includes preseason, regular season and post-season. Including Denver (where he has attended 25 games), he has attended Broncos games in eight different cities, with Denver sporting a 23-13-1 record in those games.
"The memories would take volumes to go through," Randy said. "The best one was this past January when I was at the Broncos-Steelers Wild Card game where Tebow hit Thomas with the 80-yard TD on the first play of OT - pure joy and euphoria!"
He believes that Peyton Manning (his new favorite player on the Broncos) will make fans forget about Tim Tebow, provided Manning can stay healthy.
When he's not attending a game, Randy watches Broncos games at bars and has no problem following the team in a Chicago market, especially with the Internet and how much coverage the team has been getting this offseason.
Unlike some fans of out-of-town teams, you won't find him rooting against the hometown Bears though.
"I generally hope they win," Randy said, "except when they play one of my favorite teams, usually Denver or Pittsburgh. But I really don't care."
He also doesn't care for B-Bo Knows prediction of a 7-9, out of playoffs prediction for his team. Randy forecasts 11 wins and another AFC West division crown in Denver this season.
He won't say, perhaps out of caution, what the Broncos will do once they make the playoffs.
"The playoffs are wide open," Randy said.
|
2/03/2012
Judging Today's Crop of QBs (not named Tom or Peyton) & chances for HOF
I decided to break down the current worthy QBs in terms of their chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm currently working on another piece which shows that there is a correlation between making/winning Super Bowls & making the Hall of Fame as a QB.
I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.
Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.
Eli Manning
The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?
Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.
Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.
I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?
Current HOF verdict: IN
Drew Brees
Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.
Current HOF verdict: IN
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.
Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)
Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.
Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN
Tony Romo
There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).
Current HOF verdict: OUT
Philip Rivers
See above critique of Romo. OUT.
I decided to analyze a few QBs that are at or near the elite level and have played for the better part of the past decade that may have some level of debate on whether they are in the Hall of Fame. Brady and Peyton excluded for obvious Canton busts already being built for them.
Sorry, no Alex Smith or Rex Grossman. I hope you can make it through.
Eli Manning
The current matchup, a rematch of 4 years ago, features one QB who will definitely be a Hall of Famer in Tom Brady versus a likely one in Eli Manning. Some ask - does Eli have to win this to make the Hall of Fame?
Short answer: no. Longer answer - if he continues to lead his team to playoff successes every so often(and I'd argue they've succeeded this season regardless of outcome on Sunday), I have no doubt he will be a Hall of Famer.
Everyone seems to want to compare Eli to his brother as if to minimize what the younger brother has accomplished so far. Critics say that Eli benefited from a once-in-a-lifetime catch by David Tyree & a stellar defense. To those critics, I raise you an overachieving Bears team headed by Rex Grossman as the one and only team that Peyton has beaten to win a ring.
I know Eli is not as good as Peyton at this point, but who the hell is?
Current HOF verdict: IN
Drew Brees
Brees has been a crucial part in not only building the Saints into a perennial contender, but also providing the city of New Orleans a much needed shot in the arm for morale purposes. He has led the Saints to 2 NFC Championship Games, winning a Super Bowl a few years ago. He fits the mold of what is expected from a Hall of Fame QB.
Current HOF verdict: IN
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers is well on his way to making his way to Canton. In what will likely be recognized as an MVP season despite the playoff failure, he will be adding to the accolades that include Super Bowl MVP for his performance last year in beating the Steelers. As long as he continues this career arc and doesn't get hurt for an extended period of time, I like his chances of not only making the Hall of Fame, but also winning another ring or two before his career is done.
Current HOF verdict: pending (likely in)
Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has made quite a name for himself on and off the field since he joined the Steelers in 2004 for good and bad reasons. I don't think the incidents he has had will hurt his chances of making the Hall of Fame. I'm not sure what to make of his chances though. Does he have the credentials of a Hall of Fame QB? Does he seem like a Hall of Fame QB? I'd say yes (3 SB appearances, 2 wins) and....I'm not sure. If he does make it, I don't think he'll make it first ballot.
Current HOF verdict: Leaning IN
Tony Romo
There's no questioning the numbers that Romo has put up in his career have been stellar. You could win a lot of bets from people if you wagered that Romo has a better career passer rating than every QB in NFL history but Aaron Rodgers among qualifying QBs (according to Pro Football Reference). However, there is a huuuuuuuuge void in his resume, one that will forever haunt his public image (ie - ESPN junkies) and probably voters as well. The 1000 lb gorilla in the room of no playoff success, particularly not making at least one Super Bowl to this point, will likely keep him out of Canton if it doesn't change. I know my Cowboys friends can tell you that it hasn't always been his fault with the Cowboy collapses, but until Dallas has moderate playoff success, these ghosts will haunt his chances (fair or not).
Current HOF verdict: OUT
Philip Rivers
See above critique of Romo. OUT.
1/25/2012
Peyton's Place: Where the Hall-of-Fame Bound QB Could (and Won't) Go
Note: This blog is written under the assumption that Peyton will play another down in the NFL. There remains much speculation on whether he will be healthy enough to suit up again.
With about five weeks before the Colts have to pay Peyton Manning a roster bonus, this would be a good time to speculate on what teams may be in the running for him and which ones have no shot of signing the future Hall of Fame QB.
I figure Peyton would only go to a contending team to give him the best chance of getting at least one more ring before he retires, so I'll first break down the teams that he has no shot of going to - based on teams lacking talent or no need for a QB.
The numbers are not a ranking of chance/no chance of getting Peyton, rather just a counting device to make the total of teams easy to see.
Definitely Not Peyton's Places
Oakland could be close to making the playoffs, especially in a bad division, but seems like their hands are tied to Carson Palmer for 2012.
Ponder may fall into the title of Franchise QB being a first round pick and all, but Minnesota would push him aside if there was even the slightest chance of getting Peyton (which there isn't).
Teams w/ Franchise QBs
Bears aside: I suppose Cutler falls into the franchise QB conversation. It's probably the organization he is in that makes me think his ceiling isn't as high as it could be. The Bears don't exactly have the best track record of developing quarterbacks. Now that Lovie says he wants the team to go to a run-first approach despite everything in the NFL favoring elite QBs, not to mention the Bears' lack of talented WRs, Cutler will likely be even more limited. Even if you don't consider Cutler a franchise QB, Manning may not want to go to Chicago with this coaching staff's mentality in place.
Contender Unlikely to Consider Peyton
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That leaves 6 teams that Manning may line up under center in 2012. Once again, in no particular order...
Contenders (or Potential Contenders) Who May Not Be Sold On Current QB
San Fran would seem ideal, especially seeing how close they were to the Super Bowl this year. I see the Niners more than likely resigning Alex Smith to a 1- or 2-year deal. I put their chances of signing him at minimal.
The Jets desperately need a leader who will get the veteran's attention in the locker room (I'm figuratively looking at you, Santonio Holmes) and get the most out of this squad. I don't think the team (and especially the fan base) is buying Mark Sanchez long-term. Manning wouldn't allow this crap to continue and would bring a competitive edge that was missing from the 2011 squad. There may be other issues that the Jets want to take care of first, but they wouldn't mind winning the NY tabloid battle by signing the aging slinger.
Not sure the Colts would release Peyton if they knew he'd want to go to Tennessee. Imagine the Colts facing him twice a year, a la Favre vs. Green Bay those two years. University of Tennessee is where he went to college - no clue if that appeals to him or not, but something to keep in mind. They drafted Jake Locker in the first round last year, but I'm not convinced they'd avoid Peyton if he showed interest in joining the Titans, who finished just outside of the playoffs this year. Kenny Britt would become a Pro-Bowler if Manning comes into town. The play action possibilities with Chris Johnson in the backfield would be awesome to see.
Denver seems to be the most intriguing. While it would be hard for Elway to remove Jesus Christ from the starting lineup based on his cultish popularity, I do believe that the Broncos have a few talented guys that Peyton could work with and make better. Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker would be giving Peyton better WRs to work with than New England (remember, Gronk & Hernandez are TEs). Argue Welker all you want, but Brady has made Welker's career - as a Dolphin, Welker was a middle-of-the-road option in a failing offense - now, a Pro Bowler.
I don't buy into Tebowites saying Tebow had no one to throw to. When your completion percentage is less than 50% in a 60% league, the world's best receivers wouldn't be able to bail you out. Manning has made stars out of less-talented players before (see: Jacob Tamme, Brandon Stokley).
Down the stretch, the Broncos' defense played well and was the main reason for the team winning 7 of 11 games with Tebow behind center. The real question to answer: Would Denver's fanbase accept Peyton as the team's QB at the expense of Tebow? Fans shouldn't decide who the starting QB is, but his overwhelming popularity may be hard for the team to bench him - Hall of Fame QB be damned. If there is one team president that could get away with making this move though, it is John Elway.
Wild Cards for Peyton
Weird to consider Indianapolis as a sleeper seeing as though he's still under contract with them. Maybe I'm already buying into him being gone with all the change that has taken place in Indy and how they are in a rebuilding phase and consider it a long-shot that he'd stick around. I don't see Manning wanting to stay around - even as a starter - when Andrew Luck is drafted. The speculation of when Luck would be starting if the Colts start the 2012 poorly is probably something Manning wouldn't care to deal with at this stage of his career. Besides, I think the Colts are far from contending for a Super Bowl in the near future (the main reason he'd leave).
If I had to guess....
I see the Jets as the likely candidate to snag up Peyton. Rex Ryan could make Super Bowl predictions with more gusto if they get him under center. The Jets still need to make other moves to solidify their offense (and still have a void at the offensive coordinator position).
Mark Sanchez might be better served to start fresh somewhere else. The scrutiny that he has faced from media, fans and teammates despite all of his fourth quarter comebacks tells me that a QB switch is looming.
Either way, I don't think we'll have to wait till the draft or later to find out if Peyton will remain a Colt. Smart money says he will either retire or go to another team.
With about five weeks before the Colts have to pay Peyton Manning a roster bonus, this would be a good time to speculate on what teams may be in the running for him and which ones have no shot of signing the future Hall of Fame QB.
I figure Peyton would only go to a contending team to give him the best chance of getting at least one more ring before he retires, so I'll first break down the teams that he has no shot of going to - based on teams lacking talent or no need for a QB.
The numbers are not a ranking of chance/no chance of getting Peyton, rather just a counting device to make the total of teams easy to see.
Definitely Not Peyton's Places
- Cleveland
- Washington
- Buffalo
- Tampa Bay
- Miami
- Jacksonville
- Seattle
- Minnesota
- Oakland
- Kansas City
Oakland could be close to making the playoffs, especially in a bad division, but seems like their hands are tied to Carson Palmer for 2012.
Ponder may fall into the title of Franchise QB being a first round pick and all, but Minnesota would push him aside if there was even the slightest chance of getting Peyton (which there isn't).
Teams w/ Franchise QBs
- Green Bay
- Detroit
- Philadelphia
- Dallas
- NY Giants
- St. Louis
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- San Diego
- Carolina
- New Orleans
- Atlanta
- Cincinnati
- Houston
- Chicago
Bears aside: I suppose Cutler falls into the franchise QB conversation. It's probably the organization he is in that makes me think his ceiling isn't as high as it could be. The Bears don't exactly have the best track record of developing quarterbacks. Now that Lovie says he wants the team to go to a run-first approach despite everything in the NFL favoring elite QBs, not to mention the Bears' lack of talented WRs, Cutler will likely be even more limited. Even if you don't consider Cutler a franchise QB, Manning may not want to go to Chicago with this coaching staff's mentality in place.
Contender Unlikely to Consider Peyton
- Baltimore
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That leaves 6 teams that Manning may line up under center in 2012. Once again, in no particular order...
Contenders (or Potential Contenders) Who May Not Be Sold On Current QB
- San Francisco
- New York Jets
- Tennessee
- Denver
San Fran would seem ideal, especially seeing how close they were to the Super Bowl this year. I see the Niners more than likely resigning Alex Smith to a 1- or 2-year deal. I put their chances of signing him at minimal.
The Jets desperately need a leader who will get the veteran's attention in the locker room (I'm figuratively looking at you, Santonio Holmes) and get the most out of this squad. I don't think the team (and especially the fan base) is buying Mark Sanchez long-term. Manning wouldn't allow this crap to continue and would bring a competitive edge that was missing from the 2011 squad. There may be other issues that the Jets want to take care of first, but they wouldn't mind winning the NY tabloid battle by signing the aging slinger.
Not sure the Colts would release Peyton if they knew he'd want to go to Tennessee. Imagine the Colts facing him twice a year, a la Favre vs. Green Bay those two years. University of Tennessee is where he went to college - no clue if that appeals to him or not, but something to keep in mind. They drafted Jake Locker in the first round last year, but I'm not convinced they'd avoid Peyton if he showed interest in joining the Titans, who finished just outside of the playoffs this year. Kenny Britt would become a Pro-Bowler if Manning comes into town. The play action possibilities with Chris Johnson in the backfield would be awesome to see.
Denver seems to be the most intriguing. While it would be hard for Elway to remove Jesus Christ from the starting lineup based on his cultish popularity, I do believe that the Broncos have a few talented guys that Peyton could work with and make better. Demaryius Thomas & Eric Decker would be giving Peyton better WRs to work with than New England (remember, Gronk & Hernandez are TEs). Argue Welker all you want, but Brady has made Welker's career - as a Dolphin, Welker was a middle-of-the-road option in a failing offense - now, a Pro Bowler.
I don't buy into Tebowites saying Tebow had no one to throw to. When your completion percentage is less than 50% in a 60% league, the world's best receivers wouldn't be able to bail you out. Manning has made stars out of less-talented players before (see: Jacob Tamme, Brandon Stokley).
Down the stretch, the Broncos' defense played well and was the main reason for the team winning 7 of 11 games with Tebow behind center. The real question to answer: Would Denver's fanbase accept Peyton as the team's QB at the expense of Tebow? Fans shouldn't decide who the starting QB is, but his overwhelming popularity may be hard for the team to bench him - Hall of Fame QB be damned. If there is one team president that could get away with making this move though, it is John Elway.
Wild Cards for Peyton
- Arizona
- Indianapolis
Weird to consider Indianapolis as a sleeper seeing as though he's still under contract with them. Maybe I'm already buying into him being gone with all the change that has taken place in Indy and how they are in a rebuilding phase and consider it a long-shot that he'd stick around. I don't see Manning wanting to stay around - even as a starter - when Andrew Luck is drafted. The speculation of when Luck would be starting if the Colts start the 2012 poorly is probably something Manning wouldn't care to deal with at this stage of his career. Besides, I think the Colts are far from contending for a Super Bowl in the near future (the main reason he'd leave).
If I had to guess....
I see the Jets as the likely candidate to snag up Peyton. Rex Ryan could make Super Bowl predictions with more gusto if they get him under center. The Jets still need to make other moves to solidify their offense (and still have a void at the offensive coordinator position).
Mark Sanchez might be better served to start fresh somewhere else. The scrutiny that he has faced from media, fans and teammates despite all of his fourth quarter comebacks tells me that a QB switch is looming.
Either way, I don't think we'll have to wait till the draft or later to find out if Peyton will remain a Colt. Smart money says he will either retire or go to another team.
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