A Look Back (and Look Ahead) at MLB thru All-Star Break

Many of you (based on blog views) read my MLB preview back in February in which I gave some of my predictions. Here it is again in case you want to take a look at it. Another blog I wrote featured a few more daring predictions: check that out here. I like to look back at my predictions, no matter how good or bad they are.

First, the Good predictions:

• Dunn will return to a 30+ HR hitter. He's only a few away from that mark. Granted, his average sucks, but he is seeing the ball better (much better OBP - which is what he is known for).
• One long-shot will win a division. Jury is still out on this, but according to the numbers I posted in March from what they were on 5dimes, the Pirates (30/1 to win NL Central), Mets (55/1 to win NL East), Orioles (110/1 to win AL East - yes, that high of odds - not a misprint), & the White Sox (12/1) are all in reasonable spots to contend in the second half of the season for their divisions. There's a chance none of these teams will win their division, but the fact remains - there's usually at least a few teams that come absolutely out of nowhere to make a surprising playoff run (or at the very least, threaten to make the playoffs).
• Nationals predicament w/ Strasburg. His inning limit is set in stone apparently. He has pitched 99 of his allotted 160-170 innings for the year, and yes, like I thought, the Nationals are in playoff contention. If this limit includes the playoffs, I think he's going to need to skip a few starts the rest of the year. 79 more team games would mean about 15-16 more starts if they stick with a 5 man rotation. 60-70 more innings in that time, wouldn't even be pitching more than 5 innings per game. Not sure of their minor league depth, but perhaps they could go to a 6-man rotation at a certain point. I would not want to have Strasburg sit if I'm a Nationals fan, but given the choice, I'd rather have him sit (or spread his starts out) now rather than later.
• Chris Sale as the best pitcher in the Sox rotation. I said that he would be the best by the end of the year, so I'm ahead of schedule. Peavy started off hotter than Sale, but the lefty has definitely left his mark as the future ace of the staff. I hope the Sox brass ensures that we don't overuse Sale now at the risk of a year-long injury in the near future (Wood, Strasburg, etc.). I know this sounds blasphemous, but Sale has the look of a younger Randy Johnson when he throws his wicked southpaw heat.
• AL HR leader: Jose Bautista (w/ Adam Dunn as listed sleeper); Al Cy Young: David Price; NL HR champ: Mike Stanton (Bruce as sleeper) - all have a fighters chance in those respective races. Except Mike is no longer Stanton's first name. Does that count against me?

Now, the Bad predictions

• Marlins winning a World Series - seems a little far fetched. I don't think they'll even finish about .500 at this point, yet alone win a World Series. Many of the stars on the team have underachieved. The defense behind the pitching has been awful. Chalk this one up as a loss for yours truly.
• Detroit Tigers running away w/ the AL Central. Many people had this one wrong as well. The Tigers could go on a great run to end the season and win by 10+ like they did last year, but I don't see it happening. I, like many others, underestimated what the White Sox are capable of. I think it will come down to the last series with the White Sox taking the AL Central crown again.
• MVP choices: Miguel Cabrera in AL & Hanley Ramirez in NL. Way way off.
• NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay. See above.

Glad to see I hit more than I missed on these. Here's my revised picks for divisions and World Series:

AL East: NYY (original pick: NYY)

AL Central: Chi (original pick: Det)

AL West: Tex (original pick: Tex)

AL Wild Cards: Detroit & LAA (original picks: Rays & LAA)

NL East: Washington (original: Mia)

NL Central: StL (original: StL)

NL West: SF (original: SF)

NL Wild Cards: LA & Cin (Original: Wash & Phil)

ALCS: Rangers over White Sox (Original: Yanks over Tigers)

NLCS: Wash over SF (Original: Mia over SF)

WS: Rangers (FINALLY!) over Wash (Original: Mia over NYY)

Feel free to offer your own predictions as you see them. I'd love to hear your thoughts.

MLB - Bold Predictions 2012

With baseball about to start, it's about time to make some predictions. I made some in my MLB preview last month, so here's some more.

• Adam Dunn will hit 30+ HRs once again - As my friend Nick mentioned to me yesterday, Dunn's numbers in 2011 could not have been predicted by anyone who studies baseball statistics for a living. His season really came out of nowhere, and for someone at his age (entered 2011 as a 31 year old), a sudden drop-off in numbers is quite rare. I'm dismissing the possible "steroids" angle that many suspect when numbers drop off drastically. Instead, I believe his appendix issue to start the year (where he had to have a surgery after the first week of the season) carried over into the season, which resulted in numbers that would have made 99% of major leaguers get demoted or booted out of baseball altogether. I believe we will see a happy medium between the 40 HR Dunn from the decade preceding 2011 and the craptacular version we saw last year.
• There will be at least one team who wins their division with division odds greater than 10/1 - Candidates for this include the NL Central (Cubs 21/1, Pirates 30/1, Astros 135/1), NL West (Padres 18/1), NL East (Mets 55/1), AL East (Blue Jays 12/1, Orioles 110/1) and AL Central (White Sox 12/1, Royals 14/1, Twins 17/1, Indians 90/1). All odds are from 5dimes. AL West odds are not available since two of their teams already played, but I'm willing to guess the two teams who did play (Athletics + Mariners) were both over 10/1. That means over 40% of teams are considered long shots to even make the playoffs. However, there's almost always one team that overachieves (i.e. Diamondbacks). I wouldn't be shocked (based on percentages) that it would be a team in the AL Central. The Tigers have a strong offense, but have a very suspect defense and some average arms behind last year's Cy Young/MVP Justin Verlander. 
• The Nationals will be in a predicament in September. This first part is a big assumption. I have the Nationals pegged as a Wild Card team. Right now, they seem to be this sport's version of the Detroit Lions, where many experts are projecting postseason play for the first time in a long time. So what's going to be the issue? Two words: Stephen Strasburg. After coming off of Tommy John surgery, Strasburg is on a 160-innings pitched limit. I'd assume that includes the post season. If he stays healthy and doesn't miss a start...let's say he averages 6 innings a game. That would put him at 27 starts, assuming they go with a 5-man rotation the whole year. That would put them around the first or second week of September. Seems strange to make a guy your opening day starter but also cap his innings. The fan pressure may be too much to bench him for the year. I'm hoping (if they stick with this limit) that they skip his spot in the rotation several times and give a spot start to a minor leaguer. If they aren't in the division or wild card races, then shutting him down will be much easier to do.
• By the end of 2012, Chris Sale will be the White Sox best starting pitcher - We've seen what he can do in the bullpen. The Sox certainly didn't draft him to be in the bullpen though, so Adios to Buehrle, and a Hello to Sale. Expect corny Internet and newspaper headlines involving the southpaw's last name. For all of those syndicate newspapers that read my blog, here are some....you're welcome: Epic Sale; Setting Sale; At a Sale's Pace; Working on the Sale Road.
  
  Ok, I admit some of those are bad - but then again, so are a lot of headlines I read every day.
• The Marlins will win the World Series - I know Cubs fans feel depressed every time someone other than them wins it all, but even the White Sox, who almost moved to Florida in the mid 90s, have to feel a little ill that a team that has been around for less than 20 years already has two titles. If my prediction is correct, it would be 3. The Marlins aren't a huge underdog (20/1 odds puts them with the 8th best odds), but I consider it a bolder proclamation than saying the Yankees will win it all. As I mentioned in my MLB preview, I like their rotation, like their overall lineup better than anyone else in their division (Phillies included). I'd take the 20/1 odds but my friend who gives me access to the 5dimes site said our accounts are going to be shut down at the end of the NBA playoffs.
• *Future Prediction...The Cubs Will Win a World Series Before the White Sox Win Another - I am sold on Epstein as a winner and think he will get the North Siders going in the right direction a lot quicker than Kenny Williams will the White Sox. Epstein helped push Boston over the edge in 2004 and then again in 2007, mainly by building up their minor league system. Pieces they didn't use (i.e. Hanley Ramirez) were traded for pieces that helped win them World Series (i.e. Josh Beckett). I think a focus on better scouting, which involves some Sabermetrics (for those not in the know, think of the movie Moneyball), and not a heavy reliance on free agency (although every good team needs some good free agent signings) will help bring the Cubs back to the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. As far as the White Sox go, to put it in a baseball analogy, I've seen enough of Kenny Williams to know that he has swung and missed more than he has connected. I'd like to see a new GM in town in the next couple years.

We're Talkin' Baseball: 2012 MLB Preview

Updated 3-3-12

As far as offseasons go for baseball, this one had a little bit of everything.

The top two free agents in MLB move out of the NL Central much to the delight of the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Astros. Albert "El Hombre" Pujols signs a rich deal with the Angels, while Prince Fielder gets a king's salary from a Detroit Tiger squad that is looking to take the next step in the AL.

A current MVP was revealed to have a suspicious drug test back in December. Luckily for the Brewers, Ryan Braun will not have to face a 50-game suspension (at this current time anyways) after a panel overturned the tests on the grounds that the samples were mishandled.

Josh Hamilton continues to face his inner demons and may have cost himself a shot at a big contract after his drinking incident earlier this month.

Oh, and the Chicago side of things - each squad loses a pitcher to the Marlins. On the Sox end, most of us actually wanted our hurler (Buehrle) to stay in the city limits, but the length of contract in addition to playing for Ozzie Guillen again was enough to wisk him away from the South Side. Meanwhile, everyone knew Big Z would be gone. As a 4th or 5th starter on a loaded Marlins staff, Zambrano could give the Marlins the necessary pitching depth to compete with the Phillies for the NL East crown.

Aside from those moves, not much can be said about Chicago baseball teams' chances in 2012. Given his track record in Boston, Theo Epstein gives the Cubs a great chance to rebuild their minor league system. While they are a longshot to make the playoffs this year, I'd say that Cubs fans are probably feeling a little more optimistic about their future than the Sox, and that has everything to do with Epstein.

The White Sox were in a clear rebuilding mode this offseason, shipping away Quentin & last year's closer Sergio Santos while letting Buehrle sign with Miami. Chris Sale is the unknown as he enters his first year in the starting rotation, which features John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy and Phil Humber.

My friend Nick highlighted in his White Sox preview a few weeks back that the South Siders have a wide range of possibilities depending on how things fall into place. You could probably say that about any team, but I see his point. You have to figure Adam Dunn will get things somewhat figured out, but will it be his standard .250/40/100 remains to be seen. I believe Rios' one good season a couple years back was the exception in what has been a lackluster career given his hype as a prospect.

I don't know how much longer Konerko can keep these numbers up as he continues to get up there in age. The starting staff seems to be their best chance of success, with Sale being the X-factor. We already know Peavy will only start 20-25 games - he can be penciled in for a couple DL stints at random points in the year.

Vegas has the White Sox win total at about 74, which I believe they will go OVER. I see a 77-78 win season in the Sox future. Likely 3rd or 4th place finish.

Sorry, getting ahead of myself. Without further ado, here's my predictions for the MLB season.

All over/under victory totals are from 5dimes.com as of 3/3/12.

AL East - Favorites: Yankees; Other contenders: Red Sox, Rays. Thoughts: After entering 2011 the favorites following some offseason moves, the Red Sox find themselves projected behind the Yankees in the division entering this year. New York's big move in getting stealing Michael Pineda from the Mariners solidifies their staff. They will have enough offense to hold off the other squads. I say Rays take second and win the American League Wild Card.

AL East	O/U
NYY	93	Over	94-68
TB	86.5	Over	91-71
Bos	89.5	Under	87-75
Tor	80.5	Over	82-80
Balt	69.5	Under	65-97

Pick: Yankees (w/ Rays winning Wild Card) - rest of division in order (Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles)

AL Central - Favorites: Tigers; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: Out of the six divisions in MLB, this division has (by far) the biggest gap between first and second place (at least on paper). The Indians have a mid 80s win projection and are expected to finish 2nd behind the Tigers, with the Royals around 80 wins and the Sox behind them. I still think there's questions with the Tigers' pitching staff behind Verlander, but their stellar offense should be enough to win the division.

I think the Royals are heading in the right direction and would be my pick to be the surprise team of the AL this year. Not enough to take the division yet, but perhaps in 2013.

AL Central	O/U
Det	92.5	Over	94-68
KC	80.5	Over	83-79
Cle	78.5	Over	81-81
Sox	74.5	Over	78-84
Min	73.5	Under	69-93

Pick: Tigers - rest of division in order (Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins)

AL West - Co-Favorites: Rangers & Angels; Other contenders: none. Thoughts: The Angels made the biggest splashes by picking up Big Al and CJ Wilson in less than a 12 hour span.  Many are projecting them to overtake the Rangers for the division crown, but I still have my money on the Rangers. The Angels could take the Wild Card, but I'm a big fan of the Rays and what Joe Maddon has done in what was once a sesspool of a franchise and now is a perennial contender despite their small payroll.

AL West	O/U
Tex	91	Over	92-70
LAA	92.5	Under	90-72
Oak	71.5	Over	74-88
Sea	72	Under	67-95

Pick: Rangers - (w/ Angels winning Wild Card*) - rest of division in order (A's, Mariners)

*Pick Added w/ New Wild Card Format announced at end of February

Looks like I have the same AL playoffs as last year. Not what I set out to do, but that's how I see it.

On to the NL...

NL East - Favorites: Phillies; Other contenders: Nationals, Marlins, Braves. Thoughts: This division takes the crown as the most competitive division in baseball, edging out its AL directional counterpart. I like most of the moves that the Marlins made, and with Josh Johnson back in the rotation to join Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Zambrano, the Marlins have formed one of the better rotations in baseball. Not to mention they signed Reyes (who should still have a few good years in him) and have a nucleus of Mike Stanton & Hanley Ramirez, whose only worry is how he will adjust to moving to a new position.

Maybe I'm drinking the Nationals' Kool-Aid, but I have them as my NL breakout team. They also have a solid staff, when, if healthy, stacks up well to the Marlins. Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson are a solid 4 starters. I have enough faith in them to make them one of my new "Baseball Hats of 2012" in my lifelong goal of collecting a hat from every MLB franchise.

I don't know why, but I'm not sold on the Phillies. Ryan Howard, who is still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in 2011 postseason, saw most of his key #s dipping in the past 3 years without the injury. Halladay and Lee will keep the Phillies in contention, but I see the Phillies being the 2012 version of the Red Sox - not so much collapse but failing to make playoffs despite heavy odds of making it*.

NL East	O/U
Mia	84.5	Over	92-70
Wash	83.5	Over	89-73
Phil	93.5	Under	88-74
Atl	86.5	Under	81-81
NYM	71.5	Over	72-90

Pick: Marlins (w/ Nationals & Phillies* winning the Wild Card). Rest of division in order (Braves, Mets) *Pick Added w/ new Wild Card format just announced

NL Central - Favorites: no clear favorite; Other contenders: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers. Thoughts: This division is the most wide open based on its lack of a clear favorite. Many expect the Cardinals to take a step back w/ the loss of Pujols and LaRussa, but they always seem to find a way to contend - also, Wainwright will be back. Likewise, Fielder's absence will be hard for the Brewers to fill, but they still have a solid pitching staff.

NL Central	O/U
StL	84	Over	87-75
Mil	84.5	Over	86-76
Cin	86.5	Under	80-82
Cubs	74.5	Under	72-90
Pitt	73.5	Under	69-93
Hou	64	Over	66-96

Pick: Cardinals - rest of division in order (Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Astros)

NL West - Favorites: Giants/D-Backs; Other contenders: Rockies, Dodgers. Thoughts: I don't have a good read on this division. No one saw the D-Backs' run coming last year - I see a slight regression to slightly above a .500 record. With Posey coming back and a solid pitching staff, I like the Giants (I'm a sucker for a good pitching rotation). I see them edging out the Dodgers, who have Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw & MVP candidate Matt Kemp leading them to a potential division crown that has eluded the franchise as of late.

NL West	O/U
SF	87.5	Over	89-73
LAD	81.5	Over	84-78
Ariz	86.5	Under	82-80
Colo	81	Under	78-84
SD	73.5	Under	68-94

Pick: Giants - rest of division in order (Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres)


AL Championship: Yankees over Tigers
NL Championship: Marlins over Giants

World Series: Marlins over Yankees (but not because the NL gets home field with their All-Star victory). The Marlins are due for one of their random World Series runs and have a squad that can compete for one.

Random Individual Predictions (aka - R.I.P.):

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Det)...Sleeper: Nelson Cruz (Tex)
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Fla)...Sleeper: Buster Posey (SF)
AL Cy Young: David Price (TB)...Sleeper: Michael Pineda (NYY)
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay (Phil)...Sleeper: Madison Bumgarner (SF)
AL HR Leader: Jose Cabrera (Tor)...Sleeper: Adam Dunn (CHW)
NL HR Leader: Mike Stanton (Fla)...Sleeper: Jay Bruce (Cin)

With this being said, if you can find a way to fade all of these picks, be my guest. Feel free to offer up your own predictions.

Bolek. Out.

Bye to the Hiatus: Sports Talk about Santo, Marlin$, Te-Pro Bowl

I've had writer's block, haven't really sat down by my computer after work, etc., so I apologize to the 10 of you who read my blog regularly.

And by apologize, I mean I'm not really sorry and you should write for me on my writing hiatuses.

Anywho, lots of sports stuff - might write a few blogs tonight. For now, a bulleted one.

As they always say, you're always more famous when you're dead...Ron Santo in the Hall of Fame, finally.

Welcome to the Hall, Ron. Too bad you weren't around to answer the call.

For years, Santo and his loyal fanbase lobbied for his induction into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee, which passed him over with each vote. It took the Golden Era Committee (which reviews players from 1947-1972 that have been left out of the Hall) to vote him in. A couple of points from this and the Hall of Fame in general:

1. Good for him, but why did he get voted in a year after he died? Did it take his death to get voted in?
2. The Hall of Fame shouldn't be easy to get into. It should be a selective process and reward only the game's best.
3. Santo didn't get voted into the Hall by the regular voters mainly because of the influx of guys voted into the hall during his 15 year eligibility span (over half of the time he was eligible, 4+ guys got voted in by regular committee).
4. The Hall voters are dumb. Only thing you need to know, no one, not even Babe Ruth or Ted Williams, has ever been voted in unanimously. Voters who leave certain guys off their ballots should have their vote taken away. Next example of this - Greg Maddux.
5. How can voters not vote for someone one year, then next year change their ballot to include said player(s)? Player's stats (aside from Hack Wilson's) haven't changed after they retired, so it makes no sense to leave a guy off of a ballot if you think he is a HOF. Either you think he is HOF-worthy or he is not. It shouldn't be a year-to-year thing where as a voter, you change your mind and say, you know what, he is worthy now.

The Miami Marlins have been bought by the ghost of George Steinbrenner.  First Reyes, now Buehrle. Next, Pujols? Marlins are spending like the Yankees right now. Last year, they were lucky to draw a thousand people to some games. They have a new stadium that they are looking to fill now. My guess is that it will be like the previous stadiums that opened - fun at first, but at the end of the day, people won't show up day in, day out for a losing product. The Reyes contract is going to look awful in  a few years, and if they sign Pujols, that'll make two contracts that look ugly come 2015. Reyes' game is based on speed, and with how often he gets hurt, I don't expect him to be getting within a whiff of his steal totals from the first half of his career. I consider him a bum for taking himself out of the last regular season game when he ensured himself of winning the batting title. This doesn't sound like a guy I'd want around my team.

Pujols has had 3-4 years in declining stats and is going to be an average to slightly above-average player in about 4-5 years, which means 5-6 years of dead money. Also, we assume he is 31 right now. With how often Dominicans who come to the major leagues have fudged their age, what if he is 33 right now? That would mean he would be 42-43 when this deal ends. Like I said a few weeks ago, the Cards should let the Marlins sign him. The Cardinals do not need him to contend in a weak NL Central now. And with the solid foundation of ownership that they've always had, they won't need him in the near future.

Tebow a Pro-Bowler? Not as crazy of a thought as you might think.

Never thought I'd be saying this, but I'd be surprised if Tebow WASN'T a Pro-Bowler this year. Before you think I've swallowed a couple of crazy pills and smoked a pipe, look at the AFC and look at the talent of the QBs this year by division. And by no means am I a believer in his long-term success, merely looking at this year's QB situations in the AFC. (Note: I've named the starter to be the guy who has started the most game for his team at this point):

AFC North: Big Ben, Flacco, McCoy, Dalton: Only one who will make Pro Bowl (at least initially) will be Big Ben.
AFC South: Schaub, Painter, Hasselbeck, Gabbert: No Pro-Bowlers here. Schaub, who would have made it, is out for year.
AFC East: Brady, Sanchez, Fitzpatrick, Moore: Brady will go. Sanchez is under-rated and gets too much criticism, don't see him getting in. Fitzpatrick is a sleeper for nomination. If Moore could have started the year, he may be more considered (and Miami may be a playoff team).
AFC West: Tebow, Palmer, Rivers, Cassel: Again, no one here deserves nomination. Rivers is having a down year, Palmer is still getting his feet wet.

Will get in: Brady, Big Ben
Could get in: Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Tebow
Probably won't: Rivers, Hasselbeck, Sanchez
Won't get in: Everyone else

As you can see by a breakdown, it's not too crazy to think that the Tebow hype gets him in the Pro Bowl, even though his stats don't show it. The fans get a third of the vote, remember. Also remember that Big Ben and Brady will likely bail on the Pro Bowl (playoff status or not) and there will be replacement(s) for them.

Also remember that the Pro Bowl is a useless game that no one really cares about or watches anyways, and the arguments over who doesn't get in are as pointless as the arguments about the fringe teams who don't make the NCAA tourney.

The BCS got the final game right, but there should at least be a +1 scenario in place. Just about everyone who watches college football has something bad to say about the BCS, and most believe there should be some kind of playoff. I know some people who believe a team should win their conference (whether it have a title game or not) in order to be considered. Others don't like the idea of a rematch in the title game - I have no problem with one.

However, I do think that there should be some mini-playoff, like a +1 scenario, which I understand to be a four-team playoff, with winners of semi-final games to play in championship game. In years where there are less than two major conference teams that finish undefeated, the BCS process gets critiqued. Last year, Oregon and Auburn finished undefeated, so no problems there. This year? LSU and then a bunch of 1-loss teams.

I think Bama and OK St should play each other in a couple weeks to play for the right to play LSU in champ game. Either way, I think it'd end up being Bama/LSU for the title.

Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term

Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term

Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.

However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.

Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.

Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.

It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.

Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.

Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.

For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.

A-Rod's Stats:

Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.

It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.

That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.

To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.