Week 10 NFL

I've procrastinated on my NFL betting blog, so I'll just go through all of my picks individually and say which ones I plan on betting:

Ind -3 at Jax - Took Jax - thought it would be a trap game for Indy. Wrong.

NYG -4 at Cin - May bet Cincy +4. This goes off of my betting system (Cincy hasn't covered in three straight games). Also, I think Cincy can take advantage of an over-rated NYG defense (NYG allows 6.1 yards per play - tied for fifth worst in the league. Bottom 5 in passing yards allowed/bottom 10 in rush yards allowed).

Ten +6 at Mia - Lean Miami (not sure how rusty Locker will be) but not going to bet this either way.

Det -2 at Min - Detroit has covered in four straight games, Minnesota has failed to cover in four straight. System play is Min +2.

Buf +11 at NE - Lean Buf +11. I think New England may relax a little against Buffalo, who is capable of scoring in bunches like NE. The Pats haven't covered their previous double digit spreads at home this year (lost straight up to Arizona and squeaked by NYJ in overtime).

Atl -2.5 at NO - I lean Atlanta -2.5 here. New Orleans was fortunate to escape their MNF game with a win (allowing only 6 points in 5 defensive red zone opportunities versus Philly). Their defense is horrible. Atlanta has something to prove still despite their perfect record.

SD +3 at TB - I lean SD +3 here. System play based on TB covering last two games by average of 14+. San Diego should be able to take advantage of TB's weak secondary (allowing 3rd-worst 7.5 yards/pass play).

Den -4 at Car - Ultimate trap/fool's gold game here. Denver's been rolling (three straight covers), which is exactly why this is a good time to fade them, especially with an important divisional game coming up. Carolina coming off of a couple decent performances (almost beat Chicago, beat down Washington). Should be a field goal game. Fool's Gold Pick: Car +4

Oak +7.5 at Balt - Lean Baltimore here, but you never know what kind of effort you'll get from Oakland. In year's past, this is a spot that Oakland comes up with a straight up win - wouldn't be shocked if they did.

NYJ +6 at Sea - I think the Jets will cover and have a good shot at winning. Rex Ryan has had a couple of weeks to prepare for a rookie QB. Seattle may win, but 6 points is too much.

Dal -1.5 at Phil - No touch game here. I'd lean Phil based on the no-covers in three straight system, but for this game, I don't want to test that out. Each team likes to shoot itself in the foot - hard to bet on teams like that.

Stl +11.5 at SF - SF has been a money machine at home in Harbaugh's stint w/ SF, but something tells me to lean St Louis here. System play here would be StL losing by average of 14+ in last two games. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team well-prepared after the bye.

Hou +1.5 at Chi - Liking Houston here. Only way Bears can win here IMO is to force several turnovers, which Houston has avoided well this year. Houston's D-Line vs. Bears O-Line will decide the game. I think this is a low-scoring game (17-13), with Houston winning. Is this the game where Chicago starts regressing a little? San Fran next on the schedule.

KC +12.5 at Pitt - System tells me to pick KC, especially since they're coming off of three straight double digit ATS losses and Pitt is on a 3 game ATS streak, but I may need 14+ points to take KC here.


Likely bets: Cin +4 (maybe Cin ML), SD +3, Car +4 (fool's gold pick), NYJ +6, Hou +1.5 (lots of dogs)
Still considering: Atl -2.5, Min +2

Good luck this week and have a good weekend.

If I Ain't Broke, I'm Not Fixing It (Week 9 NFL)

Looks like this little system for the NFL is having some short term luck for me.

Last week's bets went 7-5, would have been much better if I made bets strictly along the lines of the system.

In short, as I mentioned last week, this system is built where you end up betting against teams who have either (a) won two games in a row against the spread by a significant margin - thus creating an inflated line that you can gain value betting the other team or (b) won 3 straight games against the spread. We'll call these guys Fade Material - since that's exactly what you'll want to do in that next game.

The latter (b) has been a cash cow, with teams going 1-10 in their fourth game if they've covered against the spread three in a row (Houston is the only team to cover 4 games in a row). I guess to figure out (a), you'd have to define what a significant amount is against the spread - I'd say exceeding the spread by an average of 14 points or more. Using this number, teams have gone 2-9 against the spread if they've covered their previous two games by an average of 14+ points. The Bears and Vikings are the only teams to record against the spread wins in these scenarios, with both teams losing their following game.

The other half of the system is the opposite (The Biggest Losers) - betting on teams who have had (a) multiple losses against the spread by a significant margin or (b) lost 3 straight games against the spread. In the case of (b), teams are 5-2-2 in that fourth game (Baltimore is the only team this year w/ a 5-game losing streak ATS). And using the same significant margin idea (2 losses in a row against the spread by an average of 14+), these teams bounce back to the tune of a 7-2 record.

Fade Material for Week 9

(a) Won two games in a row ATS by avg of 14+ - None, although Denver (Average ATS win of 13) is close and I'll be betting against them anyways (see below).

(b) Won three straight ATS - Detroit....Bet Jacksonville +4 (hard to do, I know)

Biggest Loser Material for Week 9

(a) Lost two game in a row by avg of 14+ - Unfortunately, no one fits this bill either. Kansas City did (lost previous two by average of 17 per game), but San Diego's streak (lost three straight) took precedence. Kansas City will be a bet next week.

(b) Lost three straight ATS - Cincy (+3.5), Baltimore (-3.5), SD -7 (won Thursday).

We'll see how this goes, but I'm optimistic that this system at least has some common sense behind it. It goes off the premises that people hate to bet teams that have looked like crap the past couple weeks (likely means they've lost ATS in those games), which gives that team a little bit more value in the next game or two. Likewise, if a team is playing so well that it looks like it can't lose, gamblers fall in love with that team and want to keep betting them (riding out the streak), thus making the point spread on them in the following week or two a little inflated, giving value to their opponent.

For this week's bets:

Fool's Gold (6-5 for the year)

Denver -3.5 at Cincy - Christ, how could anyone bet against Peyton Manning? Dude has been money this year, much better than anyone could have thought coming off of his 97th neck surgery in the past 2-3 years (number may be exaggerated). They're coming off a pair of impressive victories (huge 2nd half comeback against San Diego and a drubbing of New Orleans on Sunday Night Football). Meanwhile, Cincy has lost three straight overall (and against the spread, as you read above). They had a first quarter lead in all of those games, only to fail to win any of them. I expect them to play with a sense of desperation as they look to avoid falling completely out of the AFC North with a beat-up Ravens and potentially over-rated Steelers squad ahead of them (each playing road games). I think the Bengals will surprise the Broncos and take this game, but just to be safe, I'll take Cincy +3.5 (may bet the ML as well).

Other Bets: Baltimore -3.5, Jax +4, Dal +4

Considering: Car +3.5, Oak -1.5, Min +4

NCAA Outlook:

Finally had a decent Saturday. College ain't really my cup of tea this year, so tread lightly on following these.

Bets: California -4 (fading the major results of last week - Cal's big loss and Wash's impressive win against previously unbeaten Oregon St), Ariz State +4 (Oregon St will be proven a phony), OK State +8.5 (K State will be challenged), Iowa State +12.5 (let down for Oklahoma), Pitt +16.5 (let down for ND)

Considering: WV -5 & their Over (68), Florida -17

Check my Twitter for updated bets - these are subject to change.

Have a good weekend everyone, and good luck w/ your fantasy leagues/wagers and all that other crap.