Random Baseball Musings on Trade Deadline 2013

I've had a little hiatus from writing, but some MLB stuff has me wanting to scribe today...

Dead Trade Winds

The trade deadline in baseball came and went without much fanfare. And that shouldn't be a surprise.

With so many teams still within sniffing distance of the playoffs (including division leaders, there are 15 teams within 5 games of a playoff spot entering today) and the extra wild card spot helping keep teams in the playoff race, there's not a lot of teams willing to pull the trigger on major moves. Some of these teams on the fringe are in the uneviable position of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?", not far enough out of the playoffs to concede anything but far enough where you're going to have to gain X number of games on a bunch of teams in the next two months.

Trading guys was no problem for the crap de la crap of baseball (Astros, Cubs, White Sox all trading top half of the rotation starters to contenders). Hell, we even got one of the best trades for names in MLB history, as the Orioles shipped Hoes (L.J. Hoes - he's real, trust me) to Houston for Bud (Bud Norris). The only other trade I can think of with better names was when Detroit traded Furbush to Seattle for Fister.

The End of Long Deals?

Two stories that have transpired from the past couple weeks could not have been timed out better. As A-Rod, among many others, awaits his suspension from MLB on his role with the Biogenesis facility that has trampled the season of Ryan Braun, Albert Pujols went on the disabled list with a torn plantar facia, an injury that has been bothering him all season. According to many sources, it sounds as though he may be done for the year - just like his fellow Angels are (14 games back in AL West, 10 games back in Wild Card as of today).

The timing of this news has led a lot of sites to ask which of the contracts was worse - A-Rod or Albert? What the real question should be is: is this the end of long-term deals? It was going to be difficult for either of them to truly live up to the expectations of the size and length of their respective contracts (each got 10-year deals).

Here's what Albert has done since 2012 since becoming a member of the Angels. Those are not terrible stats, but when compared to the first 11 years of his career, there's a sharp decline in all of his power numbers (from 162 game averages of 43 home runs .328 average, .420 on base, .617 slugging with St. Louis to 31 home runs, .275 average, .338 on base, .485 slugging with the Angels.) In other words, he went from a Hall-of-Fame player to a guy that's above average, but definitely trending downwards (and in a hurry). There's still eight years on his mega-deal (10 years, 240M), so there's still time for him to turn things around (perhaps the injury has hurt his production?). But more likely, this is the sign of a player who is on the latter half of his career who can still produce at above-average player percentages. However, above-average is not what the Angels paid for.
 
As I said back in 2011, I thought it was smart for the Cardinals not to overpay for Albert. In my lifetime, they are as smart and steady of an organization as there has been in the majors, almost always in playoff contention. They made it to three World Series with Albert (won two), so they definitely got their money's worth and the very best of his contract. For this contract to be worth it for the Angels, I think they will need to win at least one World Series.

In that same article linked in the previous paragraph, I noted the stats of A-Rod since he signed his deal. Nothing has changed that would support this being a smart contract for the Yankees - a sub-par 2012 and a non-existent 2013 that is likely to end in suspension tell that story. They did win a title with him in 2009, which honestly seems decades ago with how much has happened in baseball and with A-Rod since then.

In the aftermath of these deals, I think you will see these big market teams be smarter in making these long-term deals. Should a long deal be made, it will be similar to the Dustin Pedroia extension with the Red Sox (a 6-year deal that signs him through his 38th birthday). Signing a 31-year-old guy to a ten-year-deal has proven to be a foolish move. The best of these guy's careers has already passed, and paying a 38/39 year-old Pujols close to $30M is going to be a disaster towards a team's payroll - the return on investment is going to be brutal for the Angels. If another 10-year deal is to be made, it will be for a guy in his mid-20s, which would be infinitely smarter than the Albert & A-Rod deals.

The Rise of the Small Payrolls

Ironically, it's contracts like these that have helped teams with smaller payrolls become contenders - as these teams have no chance in hell of ever being able to sign a guy to that long and rich of a contract.

A list of each team's payroll entering 2013 shows that you can contend in MLB with a lower payroll. Out of the six division leaders through July 30, there's more teams in the bottom half leading divisions than their higher spending bretheren:

AL West: Oakland (60M, 27th overall out of 30 teams)
AL East: Tampa Bay (57M, 28th)
AL Central: Detroit (148M, 5th)
AL Wild Cards & Contenders: Boston (150M, 4th), Baltimore (90M, 15th ), Cleveland (77M, 21st), Texas (112M, 12th)

NL West: Los Angeles (216M, 2nd)
NL East: Atlanta (89M, 16th)
NL Central: Pittsburgh (79M, 20th)
NL Wild Cards & Contenders: St. Louis (115M, 11th), Cincinnati (107M, 13th), Arizona (89M, 17th)

While not likely to happen, it is possible that none of the top-10 spending teams make the playoffs. That would require Detroit and Los Angeles (the NL version) to tail off in the last two months and for Boston to slip out of the Wild Card - all of which I don't see happening.  Best case scenario for the big spenders - three of the top 10 make it.

You may think some of these teams are flukes, but keep in mind that the Rays have been in the playoffs or on the fringe of it for a while now, Oakland won the division last year, and Pittsburgh has had strong first halves of seasons for three straight years now. These teams are all heading in the right direction and have solid player bases to remain contenders for the foreseeable future.

Argue all you want about MLB needing a salary cap, but I don't think that's accurate. In fact, it has forced these smaller teams to think outside the box, crunching numbers that were not studied decades ago in order to maximize the talent on its limited payroll (at least limited compared to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world).

I'll take my chances with the Rays, Pirates & Athletics' set-up for the next five years over what we have on both sides of Chicago.

No Tying in Baseball: Looking Back at 2002 MLB All-Star Game (The Most Meaningful Meaningless Game in All-Star History)

Entering the 2013 MLB All-Star game, there's been 10 mid-season exhibition games that have been played that have counted. And by counted, I mean that the winner of these glorified exhibition games, or at least that's what they should be (as they were for the seven decades before that) earned the right to home field advantage for its respective league.

It didn't have to be that way.

The 2002 All-Star game, held on July 9th of that season, was coming at an awkward time for the game. The players and owners were staring down the barrel of more labor issues...another strike. I remember this because I was a few days away from going on a 12-day baseball road trip and was considering making a sign to carry to games, "No Balls, Two Strikes, We're Out". I did not make this sign, somewhat out of laziness and also I thought it would be inconvenient to carry that sign around everywhere. Where was I....oh yeah, awkward times. The last thing the MLB wanted at this point was some controversial occurrence to mar everything that promised to be with the All-Star festivities.

Some of the best MLB players were on display*, a who's who of the steroid era: Bonds, Sosa, Giambi, A-Rod, Manny.

Bud Selig had nothing to worry about...right?

No way. In fact, the game started out with one of the best All-Star plays in recent memory, as Torri Hunter scaled the wall to bring back a Bonds dinger in the first inning of the game, prompting a rare playful Bonds to run out to the outfield to launch Hunter over his back.

Who would have known that play could be one of the reasons why the All-Star format changed the following year?  The use of 19 pitches (10 NL/9 AL) in the following 10 innings, and Bud Selig declares the game a tie in front of the Milwaukee fans, who greeted the news from their former owner by showering the field with beer bottles and tremendous hostility.

In 22 half-innings of baseball, Joe Torre and Bob Brenly managed to run out of pitchers to use. In less than a years-time, the two skippers go from battling in a memorable seven-game World Series (won by Arizona) to being the center of the ugliest non-steroid story that baseball has seen since the 1994 strike.

Why did they use all of these pitchers? Well, one of the traditions at this time in these games is to make sure as many of these All-Stars get to play as possible. A look at the box score shows that only two pitchers between both teams threw more than 30 pitches (Mark Buehrle & Freddy Garcia). Those two were among only five pitchers who toed the pitching rubber for multiple innings. It is understandable that managers do not want to burn these pitchers out in an exhibition, but to have 14 of 19 guys pitch an inning or less lends itself to a catastrophe such as this. Without increasing the total of pitchers allowed on the roster or allowing some of these guys back on the mound in case a game goes long, you were bound to have this happen at some point.

When Garcia struck out Benito Santiago in caught-looking fashion to end the eleventh inning, it was Selig and other MLB brass who were left caught looking at a result (a tie game) that could have easily been prevented. Whether it be forcing the managers to have better management of your pitchers, allowing pitchers to re-enter the game, or allowing for the addition of more pitchers, there were ways around avoiding this tie.

The irony of people booing at the end result of an exhibition game oozes with the tragic irony that Shakespeare plays thrived upon. It was the sole reason that Selig vowed that a tie would never happen again, bestowing home field advantage in the World Series to the team that won the glorified exhibition game.

And despite this World Series stipulation, the commissioner's office made sure to keep some of the format of previous games (i.e. mandatory one player from each team, no matter how undeserving the team may be) that directly conflict with the best of each league playing for the rights of the extra game for their league (ideally one of the players' every-day team).

It made no sense when it started in 2003. It still makes no sense now in 2013.

For a sport that is usually so rooted in the past that traditionalists have a hard time adjusting to changes in the game - interleague baseball, wild card, sabermetrics, instant replay - one item that it should revert back to its traditions is making the baseball an actual exhibition game, just like it was in 2002. Let every team continue to be represented. Let the game be fun, where even guys like Bonds can enjoy themselves without the extra burden of having to play for its league's right to earn the World Series home field.

Never thought I would say this, MLB, but for once, don't embrace the change you made ten years ago.

*couple interesting notes:

1. Three current Sox were selected for that game - Paul Konerko, Robin Ventura (as a Yankee...and a player) and Adam Dunn (Reds). If you count A.J. Pierzynski, there were four White Sox members in 2012 who were involved in the game played ten years earlier.
2. Five of the nine AL Starters (Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, A-Rod, Hunter, Ichiro) and two of the NL starters (Todd Helton & Jimmy Rollins) are on active MLB rosters. An additional nine AL bench/pitchers and two NL bench players are still active.

Sport Shorts: Why Pujols Should Be a Marlin & Tebow Won't Succeed Long-Term

Tebow will need to pray to keep this success going long-term

Tim Tebow is 3-1 as a starting QB...but it is not a formula that is going to win you long-term. I find it amazing that he has been able to lead the team to this record in the past month and I won't even use his schedule as an excuse. All three of those wins were on the road (Miami, Oakland and Kansas City). None of those wins were dominant passing performances either - outside of the norm in which most teams are winning these days.

However, much like the Wildcat, I don't think this offense will be long-term effective when teams get tape on it and play Tebow and the Broncos more than once. Adding little wrinkles into this college offense won't be enough for Tebow to succeed long-term. He does give the team a much-needed shot in the arm in terms of a spark, but if you're a Broncos fan, you can't expect this to be a long-term solution. Eventually, teams will figure it out, and this will require Tebow to pass the ball - you know, that thing successful professional teams do more than 8 times in a game.

Win a game, good for you. Let's see you do that the rest of 2011 and beyond.

Pujols supposedly offered 9 years, $225M...and this move makes perfect sense for the Miami (yes, new stadium requires a new team name) Marlins. With the new stadium, ownership needs to establish Miami as a team that actually spends and gives a crap about its team on a long-term basis, as opposed to trading off all its pieces in 5-7 year increments.

It also makes perfect sense for the Cardinals NOT to match the offer that the Marlins supposedly threw out there. Pujols is 31 years old now (and that may even be incorrect, as many baseball fans know that Dominican players have notoriously fudged their age to improve their signability when they first make it to the big leagues), which means his deal ends in 2020, which would be Pujols' 20th major league season in his (supposed) 40th year on Earth. I think the Cardinals got the majority of Albert's prime and would be investing in a slightly above average player about 4-5 years into the deal, with declining stats from there.

Pujols' power numbers have been in decline for the past 4 years. (But Brian, he has averaged 42 home runs, 126 RBIs and batted .328 in his 11 year career - he deserves the money!) I don't doubt he doesn't deserve to be paid like a top-player like he is, but the risk of a 9-year deal with a guy who statistically had his worst year (which let's be honest, about 95% of MLB would love to be their worst year) at the edge of most guy's prime wouldn't be worth it for the Cardinals, who have a world-class organization that attracts top-notch free agents/managers due to this reputation. From everything I've heard, this reputation is well-deserved and is largely due to their fan base.

Fans will continue to come to the ballpark to support the Cardinals, as proof of their attendance numbers before Pujols. In the 11 years before Pujols (1990-2000), they averaged over 33,000 fans (compared to 40,000 in the Pujols era). Granted, that's 7,000 fans per game who aren't going through the gates, but that's still more than most teams draw. However, this is a team which has a ton of talent to continue playoff runs into the next 5-10 years w/o Pujols.

For an idea on the last top guy to get a 9-10 year contract, here's a compare/contrast on A-Rod's career before and after the contract.

A-Rod's Stats:

Average stats from 1996 (first full year he played) thru 2007: 42 HRs, 123 RBIs, .308 average
Average stats from 2008-now: 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, .284 average.

It's also worth noting that A-Rod was also 31 years old when he signed his latest 10-year deal in the 2007/2008 offseason. Granted, that's not a terrible year for a guy to have, but is it worth 25-30 million a year? Perhaps it is to the Yankees, but I don't think any other team could afford to spend that much on that type of production.

That's not to say that Albert can't do better than this average. But in the post-steroid era, guys tend to have digression in their early 30s.

To fill seats, Miami needs to do this. To fill their postseason awards in the future (and not handcuff themselves financially), the Cardinals need to let Miami do this.