MLB Predictions: A Look Back at the Bad (and some Good) Predictions from Spring Training

A Look Back at My 2013 Predictions

I'm always one to make sure I hold myself accountable for predictions - both good and bad - when it comes to offering them before a season starts. Like many of you, I tend to back up my opinion with cash money.

Maybe like many of you (perhaps some of you), I struggled throughout the 2013 season. I meant to keep accurate records of everything, but after a while of just sucking too much, too hard (the stuff they won't show on Cinemax), I just stopped keeping track of my daily progress.

One thing I can easily keep track of are the futures bets that I made (team wins, division winners, World Series champ bets). And much like my daily bets, success was hard to find. I made the following bets before and during the season:

Win Props

• Tampa Bay Over 86 (135 to win 100) - WIN
• Cleveland Over 77.5 (135 to win 100) - WIN
• Toronto Under 89 (105 to win 100) - WIN
• Houston Over 59.5 (100 to win 105) - LOSS
• San Diego Over 74.5 (100 to win 115)- WIN

Division Props

• Tampa to win AL East +255 (40 to win 108) - LOSS
• Philly to win NL East +330 (40 to win 132) - LOSS
• Cleveland to win AL Central +900 (15 to win 135) - LOSS
• Cleveland to win AL Central (Made few weeks into season) +1450 (15 to win 217.50) - LOSS
• San Diego to win NL West (Made in June) +3300 (15 to win 495) - LOSS

World Series Props

• Tampa to win WS +1500 (30 to win 450) - PENDING
• San Diego to win WS (bet made in June) +25000 (15 to win 3750) - LOSS 

Player Props

• Jay Bruce Most HRs in MLB +1900 (25 to win 475) - LOSS
• Yoenis Cespedes Most HRs in MLB +5000 (15 to win 750) - LOSS

As you can see, not much has gone right outside of my over/under bets for season wins (I went 4-1 there).

The link I introduced at the beginning highlights some of my thoughts before the season on things I know to be true about MLB. Going point-by-point:

1. Re: Spending big does not equal success. I was half right on the teams mentioned in this point. While the Dodgers' big spending eventually paid off in a big way, the Blue Jays never really got going this year. The big names signed and traded for have led to no improvement in the quality of the team (last year Toronto was 73-89; w/ two games left in 2013, they are 73-87).

2. Re: Due for some surprise teams. Again, I was half right here. I did predict Cleveland as a wild card team that would finish about 5-6 games behind Detroit (at the moment, 3 back, but obviously division is clinched). While not a wild card team just yet, I applaud myself for getting this pretty damn close at the very least. I missed on my other surprise team (San Diego), who looked like they may contend after having one of the best stretches in the MLB during June. However, once they realized they were San Diego (and once Los Angeles got their shit together), the wheels fell off. Thankfully, they rebounded enough in September to win me my futures bet on them. Pittsburgh is the ultimate surprise from the NL.

3. Re: 2-3 new division winners. As you saw above on the division bets, I didn't do a good job of predicting the new division winners. The only division I even got right was Detroit, which was the biggest chalk in baseball. There were actually four new division winners, none of which I got right (Boston, St. Louis, Atlanta, Los Angeles). 

4. Re: Tampa will surprise as usual. The jury is still out on this. We will see if they make one of the two wild card spots (tied w/ Cleveland and one ahead of Texas). With their solid pitching, I still believe they can win the World Series if they are able to extend their season into October.

Revised MLB Predictions (w/ 2 games left)

WC round

Pitt over Cincy; TB over Cle

Divisional Series Round

TB over Bos; Det over Oak

NL TBD: Whoever faces Atl over Atl; either LA over StL or StL over Pitt

League Championship Series: 

Det over TB; LA over StL or Pitt

World Series: Det over LA

Award Winners

AL MVP: Miggy

NL MVP: McCutchen

AL Cy: Scherzer

NL Cy: Kershaw (hey, I think I got one preseason pick right!)

AL Rookie of Year: Wil Myers (no true standouts in AL - Iglesias and Straily have a shot)

NL Rookie of Year:  Fernandez (Mia) (Puig had amazing start, but Fernandez dominated throughout entire season)

WS MVP: Victor Martinez

B-Bo's MLB Bets (Futures & Daily Bets)

Daily Bets (4-1 thru 4-7) - (16-20, -288.20)

4/1 (1-3, -$122)
NY/Bos Lester/Sabathia Under 8 (57/50) L - 9th inning Boston runs
Chi/KC Sale/Shields Under 7 (48/40) W - 1-0 Sale win
Phil/Atl Hamels (Philly) -110 (55/50) L - trailed throughout
Ariz/StL Kennedy/Wainwright Over 9 (50/50) L - narrow loss

4/2 (0-2, -137.30)
Balt/TB Hammel/Price Under 7 (61.50/50) L - McGee melts in 7th inning
Tor/Cle Dickey/Masterson Over 8.5 (75.80/65) L - no bullpen runs allowed


4/3 (3-2, 50.00 )
Tex/Hou Ogando/Humber Under 8.5 (69/60) - Astros shut out. Look to bet unders of teams coming off near perfect game/no hit bids
Chi/KC Peavy/Santana Over 7.5 (60/63) - Sox can't score w/o HR; too many runners left in scoring position in late innings
Det/Min Sanchez/Correia Over 8.5 (60/60.60) - Never had a chance
Wandy (Pitt) -133 (79.80/60) - Well-pitched game. Wandy a Cub killer
LA/SF Beckett/Lincecum Over 7 (61/50) - Strong offense vs starters. No more runs after that (5-3)

4/4 (5-1, 282.90 )
ChC/Pitt Wood (ChC) +130 (50/65)
ChC/Pitt Under 7 (40/40) - Wood pitched well; Marmol did what he could to blow it. Avoid Cubs games for most part!
KC/ChW Guthrie (KC) +114 (65/72.10) - Guthrie was sharp. Sox no HRs = Sox loss
SD/NYM Stults (SD) +136 (50/68) - Lots of LOBs, but SD never trailed. Held on in 9th.
Mia/Wash LeBlanc (Mia) +200 (40/80) - worth a shot. Mia got spanked.
Phil/Atl Lee (Phil) +113 (60/67.80) - might be the last time Lee gets + anything for a while. A gem.

4/5 (4-3, 96)
SD/Col Marquis (SD) +140 (60/84) - Not enough offense; 3rd inning error is the difference (3 unearned)
KC/Phil Davis (KC) +107 (60/64.20) - KC 13 unanswered runs after falling behind 4-0 early
Min/Balt Hendrix/Arrieta Under 9 (54/50) - Pretty much DOA in the mid-innings despite a pair of scoreless innings to start. Davis stays red hot to open the lead up for the Orioles.
Bos/Tor Doubront (Bos) +135 (60/81) - Never trailed. Decent bullpen work.
Mia/NYM Sanabia (Mia) +139 (60/83.40) - Bounced back nicely after getting swept. Almost blew 6-0 lead.
Mil/Ari Lohse (Mil) -131 (78.60/60) - 2 runs allowed on a wild pitch the difference. Crazy.
Sea/CHW Beaven/Quintana Over 8 (66/60) - Quintana implodes. League has caught up to him. Fade away.

4-6 (1-4, -215.30 )
Sea/Chi King Felix (Sea) -129 (90.30/70) - Windy day. King Felix threw one mistake and Rios made him pay.
Bos/Tor Lackey/Happ Under 9 - (60/61.80) - Great outing for Happ. Lackey got hurt, might be out for year. 
LAA/Texas Harrison (Tex) -124 (62/50) - Harrison roughed up in 1st. Bet never had a chance. 
SF/StL - Vogelsong/Miller Under 7 - (63/60) - Big 5th for StL is basically the difference. 

SD/Col  - Ross (SD)+129 - (60/77.40) - Garland pitched well in first start in two years. SD couldn't take advantage of bases loaded, no out in 4th.

4-7 (2-5, -242.20 )
ChW/Sea (Sale/Iwakuma) Under 7.5 - (69/60) - After rough first, both settled down, 4-3 in extras
Bos/Tor Lester +125 (60/75) - Total Red Sox domination. Least sweat bet so far this year
Wash/Cin Under 7 (Strasburg/Cueto) (72/60) - Both roughed up early. Teased a push, but lost in 6th.
TB/Cle Under 7 (Price/Masterson) (75/60) - Price got rocked. No shot.
StL/SF Under 6.5 (Wainright/Cain) (64.20/60) - 9 run fourth for StL - no shot.
Col/SD Over 10.5 (Chacin/Volquez) (66/60) - No help from SD. Col helped in late innings to no avail.
LAA  (Weaver) +129 vs Texas (Darvish) (100/129) - top half of first showed promise. After that, it was all Texas.

MLB - A Look Back (Preseason Predictions) & A Look Forward (Playoff Preview)

Note: I wrote most of this on Saturday (Sept 29th) under the notion that the White Sox fade would continue (it did), but I did not expect the Athletics to steal the division away from the Rangers, so my predictions are edited as such.

Please feel free to offer your own post-season predictions. Enjoy.

Good day to you all. I hope you enjoyed the end of the baseball season as much as I did - except for the White Sox not making the playoffs part. For a team that was projected to win about 75 games, they held their own most of the season, but the Tigers' last season surge timed out perfectly with the White Sox Swoon.

Before breaking down the playoffs, I'd like to see how well my projections from late February ended up turning out.

Here's a look at it, just so you have proof: http://b-boknows.blogspot.com/2012/02/were-talkin-baseball-2012-mlb-preview.html


PLAYOFFS?!?
What went right: Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals
What went wrong: Marlins, Phillies, Angels, Rays
Who replaced the wrong: Braves, Reds, A's, Orioles

Notes: I had the Nats as a Wild Card and Cardinals as a division champion - but they both made the playoffs, so I'm happy to get it somewhat right. The Nationals surprised even the most optimistic of people on what they did this year. Question is - will the shutting down of Strasburg hurt them in the playoffs? Short series requires good pitching - one less great pitcher has to diminish their chances of winning it all.  I'd love to see the Reds advance to the World Series (I made a bet in early August for them to win it all at 10/1 odds), but I wonder if they have enough consistent arms to face the Giants, who have developed into a well-rounded team who have somehow gotten better without Mr. Testosterone (Melky Cabrera).

Can you believe that during the season, the Athletics were as high as 100/1 just to win their division? This was at the beginning of July when the Athletics were a season-high 13 games back from Texas. At that time, Oakland was 37-42 - they would go on to close the season on a 57-26 run to overtake the Rangers in the AL West. I like this team, but I don't like their draw (vs. Detroit). I see Detroit taking the series in 4.

Miguel Cabrera: From triple the legal limit (maybe not that high) to Triple Crown

The Tigers woke up in September after being out of first for pretty much the whole year. I have my money on the Rangers and A's to win the World Series (among 5 teams I bet - others include the Reds, Phillies and D-Backs), so I'm obviously rooting for one of them to make it there and win it all. However, I have the Tigers pegged as my AL favorites now. Getting two starts from Verlander (should the series go long), arguably the best starting pitcher remaining in the playoffs, with the lineup they have, I think they'll be able to overtake the Rangers this year and advance to the playoffs.

OVER/UNDERS (Total projected wins & my predictions)

How I did: 17-13

My best division was the NL West, which I was able to project 4 out of 5 teams totals correctly (missing on the Padres, who I had going under their projected total of 73.5). I also did well with the AL West, missing only on the Mariners.

I did below average with projecting the AL Central team's over/unders (I got the White Sox over & Twins under right).

I didn't guess any of the 30 teams exact records, but I was within 3 wins on ten separate teams.

The teams I did the worst predictions for: Baltimore 65 wins (won 93, "only" 28 wins off), Miami 92 wins (won 69 - 23 off), Oakland 74 wins (they won 94), Boston 87 wins (they won 69) and Cincy 80 wins (won 97). I find it funny that I have World Series bets alive with two of these teams


Individual Predictions:

What went right: Miguel Cabrera for AL MVP; David Price for AL Cy Young
What went wrong: Hanley for NL MVP; Halladay for NL Cy; Stanton for NL HR leader; Jose Bautista (in the Feb preview, I put Jose Cabrera, so perhaps I should get half credit for forgetting his name like a dumbass)

Notes: These votes won't be known till next month, but I feel good about Cabrera's chances of winning the MVP - he'd be the second Tiger in a row to win the MVP (Verlander). Likewise, Price is among a few AL pitchers who should be considered for the Cy (Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver - hell, Verlander with a "down" year compared to 2011 should also be considered).

When I went all-in with the Marlins, I set myself up for failure when thinking Hanley might win MVP this year. Even when healthy this year, Halladay wasn't Cy Young material. Stanton did finish top-5 in the NL in home runs, but finished way behind Ryan Braun. Jose Bautista (or Jose Cabrera as I called him in Feb) was doing well before getting hurt in July (averaging a HR every 15/16 at bats). He may have had a chance to win it. Oh well. I guess the Hanley & Roy predictions were the only really bad ones.

2012 Playoff Predictions (Version 3.0):

AL Wild Card (one game playoff): Rangers over O's (as long as it's not a one-run game or goes into extras)
NL Wild Card (one game playoff): Braves over Cards (Kris Medlen doesn't lose)

AL Divisional Round: Tigers over A's (I hope I'm wrong here); Rangers over Yanks
NL Divisional Round: Giants over Reds (I hope I'm wrong here too); Braves over Nationals

ALCS: Tigers over Rangers (initial prediction: Yankees over Tigers)
NLCS: Giants over Braves (initial prediction: Marlins over Giants)

World Series: Tigers over Giants (initial prediction: Marlins over Yankees)


Who I have left for World Series bets placed in-season (Rangers - 100 to win 450; A's - 30 to win 1200; Reds - 50 to win 500)

A Numbers Analysis into Baseball's First Half of the Year

Not sure how many of you rely on the family of sports sites with "reference" in the title (baseball-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, etc.) for information. Myself, I love them all. I've been trying to use them more with my gambling exploits to find edges on matchups.

One stat that I'm going to look at for the second half of the baseball season is how important overall run differential is. Baseball-reference.com uses a Pythagorean formula for figuring out what a team's record "should" be based on a team's run differential throughout a season. For a more detailed formula on it, check it out here.


The idea of this formula was proposed by Bill James, who many sports nerds know as the mind behind Sabermetrics in baseball. It takes into account the perceived luck a team may be having (or not having). Some folks believe that winning by 1 or 2 runs is a thing that takes skill, but it's usually something that's supposed to even out over time. A team that wins consistently by larger margins is going to have a better chance of winning more games than a team that wins by a smaller amount for the margin of error involved.

I took a look at where each team who made/won a World Series since 1995 (the year wild cards were first used) ranked with this run differential stat to see what could be made of it, if anything. I also looked to see how far down each list you would have to go to find the worst team to make the playoffs:

Year	WS Winner (Pythagorean Rank)	WS Loser (PR)	Lowest Ranked Playoff	Top Team PR	Notable Teams PR records
2011	Stl (9th)	Tex (3rd)	9	Phil 103-59		30 teams
2010	SF (4th)	Tex (8th)	8	NYY 97-65		30 teams
2009	NYY (2nd)	Phil (5th)	11	LAD 99-63		30 teams
2008	Phil (3rd)	TB (5th)	12	Cubs 98-63		30 teams
2007	Bos (1st)	Col (4th)	16	Bos 101-61	Ariz 79-83 (div winner)	30 teams
2006	StL (16th)	Det (T 1st)	16	NYY/Det 95-67		30 teams
2005	ChW (5th)	Hou (7th)	9	StL 98-64		30 teams
2004	Bos (2nd)	StL (1st)	10	StL 100-62		30 teams
2003	Fla (11th)	NYY (2nd)	14	Sea 97-65		30 teams
2002	Ana (1st)	SF (4th)	12	Ana 101-61		30 teams
2001	Ariz (3rd)	NYY (5th)	9	Sea 109-53		30 teams
2000	NYY (13th)	NYM (8th)	13	SF (97-65)		30 teams
1999	NYY (3rd)	Atl (2nd)	9	Ariz (102-60)		30 teams
1998	NYY (1st)	SD (5th)	11	NYY (108-54)		30 teams
1997	Fla (7th)	Cle (9th)	12	Atl (103-59)	SF 80-82 (div winner)	28 teams
1996	NYY (8th)	Atl (2nd)	11	Cle (96-65)		28 teams
1995	Atl (2nd)	Cle (1st)	9	Cle (93-51)		28 teams

In the 17 World Series since the Wild Card format began, we can make note that the team who topped the run differential (Pythagorean formula) made the World Series in only 6 of 17 World Series, winning 3 of them). The 2nd ranked team has the exact same stats, winning 3 of the 6 World Series they have appeared in. A #1 vs #2 matchup has only happened twice, although in some cases it is not possible if the top 2 teams are from the same league.

Compare these numbers to the teams who barely sneak in or make it because they won a crappy division. Three teams with rankings in the double digits won the World Series, meaning that they made the most of making the playoffs. However, both teams that have entered the playoffs with a losing record (according to their PR) failed to make the World Series.

It should be noted that 24 of 34 teams who made the World Series in this time did finish in the Top 5 in PR record, so there is something to this - if you were a good team that won by a higher margin than other teams in a 162 game sample, then odds give you a better chance to succeed on average. In a 5 or 7 game series, crazy stuff can happen, so the occasional middle-of-the-road team who is lucky enough to make the playoffs will win it all (i.e. 2006 Cardinals, who finished 82-79 en route to having the worst winning percentage of any team to win a World Series).

2012

Using this year's statistics through July 4th, we can see where teams fit into this formula and what teams may be facing a regression and what teams could expect to have better records if their current numbers hold up for the second half of the season. I'll note the teams whose records would be 3+ games better or worse based on their perceived luck so far (according to the Pythagorean record) and have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Colorado & Seattle should have 4 more wins than they actually do, but neither has a legitimate shot at the playoffs at this point.

Notable Teams That Should Improve (Records as of July 4)


Boston (Actual Record 42-40, 7 GB; PR 46-36) - Boston's offense cannot be ignored and would likely need to be the reason for Boston to make a run (none of their starters have ERAs below 4.00). If their pitching staff improves in the second half, it wouldn't be shocking to see them as one of the two Wild Cards.

St Louis (Actual 43-39, 2.5 GB; PR 47-35) - Like Boston, St Louis has been the victim of their pitching staff. The absence of Pujols hasn't hurt the Cardinals' offense at all, and I believe they can (and will) win the NL Central by year's end, although I'm in the camp that Lynn has probably peaked this year. Somehow, someway, I say they win the NL Central.

Philadelphia (Actual 37-46, 12 GB; PR 40-43) - Main reason that I even mention the Phillies is that their pitching always gives them a chance. The problem is that their staff isn't quite what it was last year, especially with Halladay on the shelf. Even though their record should only be 3 games better, it would be good enough for 8 games back in the division if this were the record to be used. It's unlikely they will overtake all 4 teams in the division to win it, but they could catch fire and be the second Wild Card

White Sox (Actual 44-37, first place; PR 47-34) - This shocked me, and in a good way. Their run differential indicates that the start of their season is legitimate and could actually be better. This may have been inflated from Tuesday's 19-2 romping of Texas, but nevertheless, the stats say the Sox are for real. Real enough to be considered a World Series contender. Their PR of 47-34 is tied for 2nd in the majors with the Yankees.

Notable Teams That Should Decline


Miami (Actual 39-42, 9 GB; PR 34-47) - Many think that Miami has underachieved so far this year (and you could make a case for that given their talent - I had them winning the World Series at the start of the year), but the numbers tell a different story. They are fortunate to be "only" 9 back and will likely tail further down if they continue with their current run differential.

San Fran (Actual 45-37, 0.5 GB; PR 42-40) - A team like San Fran is predicated on winning low scoring games, which obviously means they won't outscore their opponents by a high margin more often than not. If they can manage to continue doing so, then they could be one of those teams that enters the playoffs on the lower end of run differential and have a good chance to win short series simply on the strength of their rotation.

Baltimore (Actual 44-37, 5 GB; PR 38-43) - Right now, Baltimore would be the second Wild Card team. They have had the most luck, according to run differential, bettering what their actual record should be by 6 full games. If that corrects itself in the second half, then Baltimore will likely be facing a record along the lines of 82-83 wins - not bad for a team that's sucked so bad lately, but not good enough to make the playoffs.

Cleveland (Actual 42-39, 2 GB; PR 38-43) - I don't see Cleveland holding up in the second half of the year. I could see them fading to as low as fourth in the division.

Life's a Pitch: MLB Playoffs Thus Far and LCS Predictions

Everyone remember the commercial from the 90s in which Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are conversing about hitting home runs, with the infamous "Chicks dig the longball" quote? In case you don't, here it is for your viewing pleasure:

Needless to say, home runs have been a fascination with fans since the days of Babe Ruth blasting more home runs than entire teams would in a year.

Sure, I like a good home run every now and then. But if you give me what we saw in the 3 winner-take-all games so far in the postseason, I'll trade that for a high scoring game anytime.

Between the Game 5s played in New York, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, there were a total of 11 runs scored between the 6 teams. Here are the totals of the starting pitchers of those games (including Ivan Nova, who was pulled after 2 innings due to an injury):

12 IPs, 11 H, 4 BB, 3 ER, 10Ks (Ariz/Mil)
17 IPs, 9 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10Ks (StL/Phil)
7 IPs, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 7Ks (NYY/Det)

That's a combined 36 IPs, with 28 hits and 7 walks allowed (WHIP under 1.00), with 7 ERs surrendered (ERA under 2.00) and 27 strikeouts. An average of 6 innings pitched (higher if not for Nova), 1 walk, 5 hits and 1 run allowed, with 5 Ks in those outings for the six pitchers.

Stuff your 12-9 Mile High games in a sack mister - I'll take my 3-2 and 1-0 games all day, especially on the game's highest stage.

LCS Predictions

As everyone who watches baseball knows, it is one of the hardest sports to predict. That's why when I bet baseball, I usually just stick with total run bets. I don't see these LCSes any easier to predict.

I think the Tigers are going to need to win both of Verlander's starts to win this series. I think they'll end up splitting his starts and the Rangers win in 6. The Rangers have a little more depth with pitching and bullpen, especially now that they are using Ogando out of the pen. I think their lineups are both devastating, but as the playoffs have shown, good pitching will usually beat good hitting.

The Cardinals have made a tremendous September push to get to where they are now. However, with Carpenter, who pitched a shutout last night to get the Cardinals to the NLCS, likely only getting one start in the first 5-6 games of the series, I like the pitching that the Brewers can throw out there more. I like the Brewers to win in 6 games as well. With both of these teams knowing each other well (played 18 games in the regular season, splitting them evenly), I expect a very competitive series with the victor scoring less than 4 runs in several of the games.

Since my predictions have been way off so far this year, you Cards and Tigers fans can thank me for your World Series berths in the next 10 days.



Baseballog - Midseason Review on Predictions

I didn't want to be one of those guys who makes predictions to start the season and not follow up with how they are doing, as many people who make predictions of any sort tend to do. Here's a look back at my 2011 preseason baseball predictions and my assessment on how they've looked so far. Mind you, the surprise teams were based on odds that my gambling site at the time posted and nothing to do with how a team may have performed in previous years.

(Note: If you take a look at my picture that opens my prediction blog, you will see that I could not have been more wrong about Adam Dunn. High on-base percentage and 41 home runs, my ass!)

Predictions vs. Reality (at the All-Star Break)

AL East
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays....Reality: Rays. Even though they are 6 games back in baseball's toughest division, they are showing that they are better than the price that oddsmakers put them on.
Division Winner- Prediction: Boston....Reality: Boston and NY are looking like they will be in a neck and neck race for the division title. Boston has survived a terrible start and lots of injuries and NY's pitching has been deeper than expected thanks to the resurgence of Bartolo Colon. I'll stick with my Boston prediction but now I think NY will be the Wild Card winner.

AL Central
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Minnesota....Reality: Oops. The Indians were paying close to 15/1 or 20/1 to win the division. Clearly I fumbled the surprise team in this one.
Division Winner- Prediction: Minnesota....Reality: Oops, Part II. This looks like a two-horse race to me (sorry Chicago, too inconsistent for me to trust with my preseason prediction). I think Detroit holds off Cleveland and wins it.

AL West
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Los Angeles Angels....Reality: Solid prediction. One game out of the division lead. Getting 3/1 on them to start the year would have been a good deal.
Division Winner- Prediction: Texas....Reality: Another AL division, another 2 horse race. At least like my Boston prediction, Texas looks like they can live up to my Magic 8-ball prediction of winning the division. I'll stick with Texas as my division champ.

NL Central
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Cubs....Reality: Uhm.....Next. Pittsburgh takes the cake here no doubt.
Division Winner- Prediction: Brewers.....Reality: Milwaukee is in a 4-team race for the division title. I like the move to get K-Rod, although I wonder if there will be a closer controversy if Axford blows a save that might get fans going and get egos riled up in the dugout. St. Louis has survived so much and is still right there. I'm rooting for my original prediction, but I see St. Louis winning this for some reason.

NL East
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: Florida....Reality: It looked good for a month or so, but now Florida sits at the bottom of the division despite riding a 5-game winning streak into the All-Star break. The Mets being over .500 (albeit one game over) would probably be the biggest surprise.
Division Winner- Prediction: Braves....Reality: I think I was trying to be cute and go against the grain of picking the obvious Phillies pick here. Even though Philadelphia's up only 3.5 games over the Braves, I don't see the Braves overtaking them. I do see them taking the Wild Card though.

NL West
Surprise Team to Contend- Prediction: San Diego....Reality: While San Diego is playing better than most people probably thought they would, the winner of the surprise team goes to Arizona, projected for a win total in the mid 70s and currently sitting 3 back.
Division Winner- Prediction: Giants...Reality: This division pick is the one I am most comfortable with, despite an injury to their best player, Buster Posey. Despite their offensive woes, the Giants find a way to grind out just enough runs to support their outstanding pitching staff.


Prognosis:
Surprise Teams: Only really hit on the Angels and Rays, with the Angels being the only of the surprise teams that have a shot at the division crown this year. The others, I soon found, were longshots to win their divisions for a reason.
Division Winners/Wild Cards: There's a chance I could hit all 4 of my NL playoff teams, albeit with the NL East winner/Wild Card switched. I had the AL Central completely wrong (and probably will barring a White Sox/Twins hot 2nd half) but feel solid with Texas and Boston.

New World Series prediction: Philadelphia over Detroit

Missed Cuban Crisis: What could have been for the Cubs

Cubs fans can only dream of Cuban owning and leading their team to the promised land.

this will sound weird. Im laying in bed. with the trophy next me.#dreamcometrue.

    This was a tweet posted by Mark Cuban earlier this morning. Can't say I blame the man for enjoying his (and the Mavericks') first ever championship. His Mavericks have come a long way since he bought the team back in 2000. In the 20 years before he bought the team, the Mavs won only 40% of their regular season games, with only 1 division championship in that period of time (which was followed by a quick 3-1 first round exit in 1986). Since Cuban took over, they are now winning close to 70% of their regular season games and have made the playoffs every year in his reign - including two Finals appearances. Before this year, they had been known as a regular season team who faded come May - including a rare upset to the #8th seed Golden State Warriors in 2007.

      Around that time, the Tribune company was looking to sell the Cubs - a team that Cuban highly coveted. So much so, that Cuban was rumored to be the highest bidder for the team ($1.3 billion). However, baseball being the way it is (Selig and Reinsdorf being the guys with power), it wanted nothing to do with a younger new age owner that may look to shake up MLB's status quo. His bid was never really taken seriously even though he did enter the 2nd round of negotiations (The Ricketts family ended up with the winning bid). To say that the Ricketts' tenure of ownership  has been rocky would be an understatement, especially with this insistence for public funding to rebuild Wrigley seemingly his focus over the product he has been putting on the field. To be fair, the bad deals made were done before him. But he has done nothing to inspire the loyal fan base, a base whose faith is starting to crumble.

    I don't know how much better Cuban could have done with this roster. But I do know his track record with the Mavericks (and his other business ventures) has been nothing but successful. He would have provided hope for a franchise needing a non-traditional owner to improve its long-term chances of winning. Instead of their franchise being in the hands of such an owner, Cubs fans will have to hope that Ricketts can get his focus more on the team and less on a stadium financing deal.

     If the Cubs organization hopes to light up some victory Cuban cigars celebrating a World Series title, it will have to do so without Cuban.

     Until then, cheaper knock-offs will be smoked, and likely only in situations involving stress, not celebration.

#1s with Some Bullets

Some bullet points of a blog today:

• I have officially bet the entire AL Central to win the World Series. Before the season started, I threw $20 on the Sox at 21/1 odds (20 to win 420). I just checked all of the team's odds in the AL Central outside of the Sox and they were all 40/1 or over. So I threw $6 on KC (80/1 odds), $8 on the Twins (60/1 odds) and $10 each on the Indians and Tigers (both 40/1). Whether this proves to be a dumb strategy is a non-arguing point (I know it's stupid). I guess I figured if my Sox bet was gonna be shot in October, I might as well insure myself with the rest of the division at such high prices.
• Two trains of thought with the Bulls after going up 2-0 in the series: (1) Being on a double digit win streak, they're clearly doing something right, so no use in complaining on how they win, just as long as they win vs. (2) A #1 seed such as the Bulls with the supposed MVP should be destroying the Pacers on their home court, where they've shown themselves to be a dominant force, not letting them hang around (or in Game 1's sake, hold a lead the entire game up until the last minute). Both points can be argued. I don't think the Bulls can play like this against the Heat or Celtics (or even the Magic/Hawks) and expect to advance to the Finals.
• Speaking of the Bulls, I wore the Brian Scalabrine jersey again yesterday. I believe I have worn the jersey more than he has in 2011, and in about a quarter of the time.
• First day without class, so that means going to a bar of course. Well, for a friend's birthday. I don't want to make going to bars a habit, but I don't want to be trapped at home either this summer. Especially considering I work from home. So if you're reading this, GET ME OUT OF THE HOUSE!
• Just pulled the trigger on the Knicks for Game 2 tonight. I pegged them winning one of the first two games at Boston, so figured it was worth the risk at +275 for $35.
• Looks like The Playoff Stubble that I spoke of last week is about right for the Blackhawks, who are on the brink of elimination. I say they pull out a couple of wins here just to tease everyone, but then lose in Game 6.

....coming soon in the next day or two, a Scalabrine article that you will definitely want to read. Stay tuned.

World Series Bets Placed:

96124773	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11108] CLEVELAND INDIANS +4000 $10.00 $400.00
96124774	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11110] DETROIT TIGERS +4000 $10.00 $400.00
96124775	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11113] KANSAS CITY ROYALS +8000 $6.00 $480.00
96124776	TNTODDS TO WIN 2011 WORLD SERIES [11117] MINNESOTA TWINS +6000 $8.00 $480.00